Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1
Appendix 1 A
Review
Some Basic
Statistical Concepts
1A.2
Random Variable
random variable:
A variable whose value is unknown until it is observed.
The value of a random variable results from an experiment.
Examples:
Gross national product (GNP)
money supply
interest rates
price of eggs
household income
expenditure on clothing
1A.6
Dummy Variable
die x f(x)
one dot 1 1/6
two dots 2 1/6
three dots 3 1/6
four dots 4 1/6
five dots 5 1/6
six dots 6 1/6
1A.8
A discrete random variable X
has pdf, f(x), which is the probability
that X takes on the value x.
f(x) = P(X=xi)
f(x)
0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 X
f(x)
red area
green area 0.1324
0.8676
. .
$34,000 $55,000 X
P[X=a] = P[a<X<a]=0
b
P[a<X<b]= ∫a f(x) dx
n
Rule 1: Σ
i=1
xi = x1 + x2 + . . . + xn
n n
Rule 2: Σ kxi = k Σ xi
i=1 i=1
n n n
Rule 3: Σ
i=1
(xi + yi) = Σ xi + Σ yi
i=1 i=1
n x1 + x2 + . . . + xn
= n Σ xi =
1
Rule 5: x
i=1 n
n
Notation: Σx f(xi) = Σi f(xi) = i =Σ1 f(xi)
n m n
Rule 7: Σ Σ f(xi,yj) = i Σ
=1
[ f(xi,y1) + f(xi,y2)+. . .+ f(xi,ym)]
i=1 j=1
1. Empirically:
The expected value of a random variable, X,
is the average value of the random variable in an
infinite number of repetitions of the experiment.
In other words:
Analytical mean:
n
E(X) = Σ xi f(xi)
i=1
E (X) = Σ xi f(xi)
i=1
Σ
2 2
E (X ) = xi f(xi)
i=1
It is important to notice that f(xi) does not change!
E (X )= i=1Σ xi f(xi)
3 3
1A.22
E(X) = 0 (.1) + 1 (.3) + 2 (.3) + 3 (.2) + 4 (.1)
= 1.9
2 2 2 2 2 2
E(X )= 0 (.1) + 1 (.3) + 2 (.3) + 3 (.2) + 4 (.1)
= 0 + .3 + 1.2 + 1.8 + 1.6
= 4.9
3 3 3 3 3 3
E( X ) = 0 (.1) + 1 (.3) + 2 (.3) + 3 (.2) +4 (.1)
= 0 + .3 + 2.4 + 5.4 + 6.4
= 14.5
1A.23
n
E[g(X)] = Σ
i=1
g(xi) f(xi)
E(X+a) = E(X) + a
Multiplying by constant will multiply
its expected value by that constant:
E(bX) = b E(X)
1A.26
Variance
variance of a discrete
random variable, X:
∑ i
2
var (X) = (x - EX ) f (x i )
i=1
Z = a + cX
var(Z) = var(a + cX)
2
= E [(a+cX) - E(a+cX)]
2
= c var(X)
2
var(a + cX) = c var(X)
1A.31
Covariance
cov(X,Y) = E(XY) - EX EY
Y=1 Y=2 1A.33
covariance
.50 .50 cov(X,Y) = E(XY) - EX EY
EY=1(.50)+2(.50)=1.50 = .75 - (.40)(1.50)
= .75 - .60
EX EY = (.40)(1.50) = .60
= .15
E(XY) = (0)(1)(.45)+(0)(2)(.15)+(1)(1)(.05)+(1)(2)(.35)=.75
1A.34
Joint pdf
college grads
joint pdf in household
Y=1 Y=2
f(x,y)
f(0,1) f(0,2)
vacation X = 0 .45 .15
homes
owned
X=1
.05 .35
f(1,1) f(1,2)
1A.36
E(XY) = Σ Σ xi yj f(xi,yj)
i j
E(XY) = (0)(1)(.45)+(0)(2)(.15)+(1)(1)(.05)+(1)(2)(.35)=.75
1A.37
Marginal pdf
f(x,y) f(x,y)
f(x|y) = f(y|x) =
f(y) f(x)
1A.40
conditonal
Y=1 Y=2
f(Y=1|X = 0)=.75 f(Y=2|X= 0)=.25
.75 .25
X=0 .45 .15 .60
f(X=0|Y=1)=.90 .90 .30 f(X=0|Y=2)=.30
f(X=1|Y=1)=.10 .10 .70 f(X=1|Y=2)=.70
X=1 .05 .35 .40
.125 .875
f(Y=1|X = 1)=.125 f(Y=2|X = 1)=.875
.50 .50
1A.41
Independence
cov(X,Y)
ρ(X,Y) =
var(X) var(Y)
Correlation is a pure number falling between -1 and 1.
Y=1 Y=2 1A.44
EX=.40
2 2 2
EX=0(.60)+1(.40)=.40
X=0 .45 .15 .60 2 2
var(X) = E(X ) - (EX)
2
= .40 - (.40)
.05 .35 .40 = .24
X=1
cov(X,Y) = .15
Y~ 2
N(β,σ )
1 - (y - β)2
f(y) = exp
2 π σ2 2 σ2
f(y)
β y
1A.49
The Standardized Normal
Z = (y - β)/σ
Z ~ N(0,1)
1 - z2
f(z) = exp 2
2π
1A.50
Y ~ N(β,σ2)
f(y)
β
a
y
β
a b
y
a-β Y-β b-β
P[a<Y<b] = P < < σ
σ σ
a-β b-β
= P <Z<
σ σ
1A.52
Linear combinations of jointly
normally distributed random variables
are themselves normally distributed.
W ~ N[ E(W), var(W) ]
1A.53
Chi-Square
E[V] = E[ χ(m) ] = m
2
mean: