TO: Radinovich for Congress

FROM: Donna Victoria, Victoria Research & Consulting

RE: Polling Results for Joe Radinovich, Sep 27-30

DATE: October 1, 2018

THEY CAN’T TAKE A GOOD MAN DOWN

The 8th Congressional District has long been considered a Swing District – and we fully expect a fight to the finish. It is still
remarkable that Joe Radinovich is working his way into the lead despite millions spent on false negative attacks by Paul
Ryan’s SuperPAC. While both candidates are working on name recognition in this open seat race, Joe Radinovich has both
higher Favorability and higher name recognition than Pete Stauber.

Radinovich’s name recognition has risen from 43% in mid-August to 64% now – and 36% of the electorate views him
favorably. Only 54% of voters recognize Stauber, and only 30% view him favorably.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION

The generic trial heat for Congress (i.e., Parties without candidate names) is +2 -- 43% prefer a Democrat, 41% prefer a
Republican. This is virtually unchanged from our August baseline, which was tied 44%-44%.

In the initial trial heat Joe has a 1-point lead, 45% Radinovich to 44% Stauber. This is very similar to the NYT/Sienna
Poll of Sep.6-9, which showed also showed a 1% Radinovich lead, 44%-43%.

Stauber is on unfavorable issue terrain for this election. While his DC pals have been slandering Joe Radinovich and
equating unpaid parking tickets with “crimes,” Stauber has failed to make a positive argument for his own election, and
has basically made very little progress in the last 6-7 weeks. During the same period, Radinovich has raised his profile
and his positive ratings in spite of the onslaught, and he has held his own while being badly outspent by special
interests spending on Stauber’s behalf. Voters have seen right through the attacks.

The Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party has held this district since 1946, minus an unfortunate 2-year gap from 2010-2012
when another Republican union member reaped the benefits of a low-water mark for Jim Oberstar. Majorities are
made by adding seats, not subtracting and Stauber won’t be so lucky. Joe Radinovich has all the right stuff to keep this
in the win column. The expensive Minneapolis media market is up for grabs because both candidates are lightly known,
but Radinovich has the message to win if he has the resources to get that message out.

This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll of likely general election voters for November 2018, conducted in the 8th Congressional
District of Minnesota, September 27th through September 30th, 2018. Four hundred 10-minute interviews were conducted by live
interviewers (55% cells); the margin of error for a sample of this size is 4.9%.

7006 Carroll Ave, Suite 201, Takoma Park, MD 20912 ● Phone: 301-565-9500 ● Email: DonnaV@VictoriaResearch.com