ISSN 0974-0775

GREEN FARMING
International Journal of Applied Agricultural & Horticultural Sciences
(Abbr. Green Farming Int. J.)

Volume 5 Number 4 July-August 2014 Bimonthly

Previous issue :
CONTENTS Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 316-503
Research Papers
Effect of hydropriming on germination and seedling vigor of pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.]
? K.M. CARVER, M.G. MULA, D.P. THAKARE, A. RATHORE, R. DAS and R.V. KUMAR ............. 504
Diversity analysis among selected short duration chickpea cultivars & breeding lines based on agronomic traits
? S. ASMA KOINAIN, V.S. HEGDE and C. BHARADWAJ ............. 510
Morphological and SSR marker based genetic diversity in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L)
? J. DEVENDRAPPA, K.P. VISWANATHA and B.C. VIVEK ............. 516
Genetic variability & association pattern among disease resistance, nutritional quality & productivity
traits in recombinant inbred lines of groundnut
? T.P. MUHAMMED AZHARUDHEEN, H.D. PUSHPA and M.V.C. GOWDA ............. 520
Heterosis studies on conventional and genic male sterility based hybrids in okra (Abelmoschus esculentus)
? MAHESH BADIGER, M. PITCHAIMUTHU, B. PARVATI and U. SACHIN ............. 524
Determination of growing degree days and heat thermal unit in inter and intra specific cotton hybrids
and their parents
? HARISH THAKARE, V. KUMAR and A.V. NARWADE ............. 529
Diversity analysis in walnut (Juglans regia L.) using morphological and RAPD markers
? NAWSHEEBA WANI, M. FEZA AHMAD, M. ASHRAF BHAT, SHABIR A. WANI, JAVID IQBAL,
NAGEENA NAZIR and RIZWAN RASHID ............. 533
Cytoplamic male sterility mediated combining ability studies for purple blotch disease, yield and quality
components in onion (Allium c epa L.)
? AMBRESH, R. VEERE GOWDA, ANAND NARASANNAVAR and S.I. MADAWAL ............. 538
Evaluation of onion (Allium cepa L.) genotypes for growth & yield parameters under C dryzone of Karnataka
? P. UMAMAHESWARAPPA and H. CHANDRAPPA ............. 543
Branching pattern and flowering behaviour of different cultivars of sapota
? B. NARENDRA KUMAR, P. VINOD KUMAR, L. NARAM NAIDU and D.R. SALOMI SUNITHA ............. 547

Characterization of different accessions of black jamun (Syzyguim cuminii Skeels) from Saurashtra region
? D.K. VARU, A.V. BARAD and NILIMA BHOSALE ............. 550

Physico-chemical characteristics of cashew (A. occidentale L.) varieties under Gujarat conditions
? P.D. SOLANKI, N.I. SHAH, V.K. PATEL and B.M. MAHIDA ............. 553
Genetic analysis for physiological parameters in sunflower under South Gujarat condition
? M.M. PANDYA, A.V. NARWADE, V.L. PARMAR and D.R. CHAUDHARI ............. 556
Role of hydrogel granules in increasing wheat productivity by maintaining soil moisture at root zone depth
? DATTATRAYA PATIL, INDRA MANI, ADARSH KUMAR and CINI VARGHESE ............. 559
Microbial population and soil under different N levels and Azotobacter strains in finger millet
? SANDEEP UPADHYAY, N. KUMAR, D. TIWARI and M. NAILWAL ............. 563

Interaction effect of bio-inoculants & levels of fertilizers on yield, nutrient uptake and quality of safflower
? A.A. BODKHE, SYED ISMAIL and SYED JAVED JANI ............. 568

Effect of panchagavya on growth, nutrient uptake, microbial count and yield of cowpea (V. unguiculata (L.) Walp.)
? M.M. PATEL, K.M. PATEL, D.M. PATEL and A.I. DESAI ............. 572
Contd. ....
Comparative analysis of bacterial community structure in 3 acidic soils of India by cultivation
independent approach
? KIRAN K. REDDY, PRANITA BOSE and KANNEPALLI ANNAPURNA ............. 577
Effect of water soluble fertilizers on growth and yield of banana (Musa paradisiaca L.) cv. Grand Nain
? S.R. MANE, B.N. PATEL, A.P. GONGE and D.P. NAWALKAR ............. 583
Preparation of phosphocompost from the hydrothermal pretreated pine needles using the
indigenous microbial consortium
? DEEPSHIKHA THAKUR, RAJESH KAUSHAL and VINEET SHYAM ............. 587
Uptake of major nutrients of rice (Oryza sativa) as influenced by levels of phosphorus, farmyard manure
and green manure in high available P vertisols
? V. SIVA JYOTHI, T. GIRIDHARA KRISHNA and P. KAVITHA ............. 592
Response of drip irrigation & micronutrient mixture on yield attributes, quality & nutrient uptake in sweet corn
? J.S. PATEL, G.J. PATEL and K.M. PATEL ............. 596
Effect of gibberellic acid & maleic hydrazide on growth, sex expression, yield & quality of muskmelon (C. melo)
? R.K. DERLE, L.R. VARMA and YOGESH PAWAR ............. 600
Studies on effect of mulches and herbicides on growth, yield and quality of pecan nut (C. illinoensis Koch.)
? ANGELVIEW N. MARK, C.S. TOMAR, D.D. SHARMA, GHUMARE VIKAS, BABITA KHACHI and
DILIP SINGH KACHAWAYA ............. 604
Influence of tillage and weed management methods on growth and productivity of maize
? R. BASKARAN and R. KAVIMANI ............. 610
Input use pattern in organic farming systems in Gadag district of Karnataka : A key mechanism for achieve
sustainable growth in organic agriculture
? VIJAYACHANDRA REDDY S., S.M. MUNDINAMANI and H.B. BABULAD ............. 615
Regeneration of natural resource base : An impact study of MGNREGA in Andhra Pradesh
? V. SITARAMBABU, D.V.S. RAO, G. RAGHUNADHAREDDY, B. VIJAYABHINANDANA and
V. SRINIVASARAO ............. 619
Nutrient sequestration and phycoremediation of sewage waste water by selective microalgae
? GULSHAN K. SHARMA, SHAKEEL A. KHAN, FAYAZ A. MALLA and N. GUPTA ............. 623

Soil fertility mapping in Panyam Mandal of Kurnool district by geographic information system
? P.V.R.M. REDDY, K. VENKAIAH, T. GIRIDHARA KRISHNA and Y. PAVAN KUMAR REDDY ............. 627
Assessment of soil fertility & moisture regime changes by some fruit &medicinal crops under agri-silvicultural system
? M.R. NAYAK, L.K. BEHERA and B.B. BEHERA ............. 631
Yield attributes, yield & net realization of wheat (T. aestivum ) as influenced by integrated nutrient management
? H.K. PATEL, A.C. SADHU, P.M. PATEL, K.V. PATEL and M.P. PATEL ............. 634

Response of summer rice (Oryza sativa L.) to plant geometry and age of seedlings under SRI methods
¾ S.K. BAJIA, G.R. JAKHAR, CHATRA RAM and J.B. PATEL ............. 637
Effect of irrigation and weed management practices on growth, yield and monetary returns of
dill seed (Anethum graveolens L.)
¾ S.M. PATEL, P.M. PATEL, H.K. PATEL, U.J. PATEL and P.B. PATEL ............. 640

Moisture dependent physical properties of marking-nut (Semecarpus anacardium L.)

¾ ARSHAD S. MULANI, BHAGYASHRI N. PATIL, SUCHITA V. GUPTA and PRABHAKAR M. NIMKAR ............. 643

Extraction of oleoresin from rotten onion by supercritical Co2 extraction method

¾ P.C. BALANI, Y.B. KALNAR, D.M. VYAS and S.H. SUTHAR ............. 648
Physiological and biochemical changes during seed ageing in onion (Allium cepa L.)
¾ UMESHA, S.N. VASUDEVAN, K. BHANUPRAKASH, N.M. SHAKUNTALA and P.R. ARVINDKUMAR ............. 653
Contd. ....
Response of quality paramaters of tomato to organic and inorganic sources of plant nutrient's
¾ M. MUDASIR MAGRAY, M.A. CHATOO, K.P. WANI, S. FAHEEMA, F.A. PARRY and ALIMA SHABIR ............. 657
Effect of different levels of sulphur and boron on growth, yield and quality attributes of production in garden pea
F.A. PARRY, M.A.CHATTOO, G.R. NAJAR, S.H. KHAN, Z.M. DAR and A. MASOOD ............. 660
Utilization of cashew apple (Anacardium occidentale L.) for preparing cashew apple syrup by using different varieties
¾ P. ASHOK NAIDU, B. PRASANNA KUMAR, D.R. SALOMI SUNEETHA and K.T.V. RAMANA ............. 665
Optimization of physical and thermal properties of a biomass briquettes fuel made from carbonized
cashew nut shell and rice husk
¾ C.B. KHOBRAGADE, Y.P. KHANDETOD, A.G. MOHOD and DEEPAK KUMAR ............. 670
Standardization of drying temperature for dehydration of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii H.) flowers in hot air oven
¾ JAGADEESH HULAGUR, H. MOHAMAD TAYEEB ULLA, M. RAVIPRASAD SAJJAN, K. LOKESH,
RAMACHANDRA NAIK and T. VASANTH KUMAR ............. 675
Development and testing of rice husk gasifier stove for North East region in India
¾ ALOK GORA, GAJENDRA PRASAD, NITIN KUMAR and SANTANU MALAKAR ............. 678
Enhancing life span of the farm pond through various cultivation practices and inlet spillways
¾ S.M. TALEY, K.A. JADHAV, V.P. UBARHANDE and S.M. PONGDE ............. 681
Performance and economic evaluation of paddy round straw baler in Kole lands
¾ SHYLA JOSEPH and U. JAIKUMARAN ............. 684
Cost and returns of jaggery production in Karnataka - An economic analysis
¾ K.M. AWARADI, A.P. BIRADAR PATIL, M.Y. TEGGI and B.C. RAJUR ............. 687
Yield gap analysis in paddy under organic and inorganic farm situation through output decomposition model
¾ RAGHAVENDRA KONDAGURI, L.B. KUNNAL and RAGHAVENDRA CHOURAD ............. 691
Impact assessment of irrigation on cropping pattern and food consumption basket in Ghataprabha and
Malaprabha command area of Belgaum district
¾ SHWETA BIRADAR, S. SHASHIKUMAR and BHARAMARAJ BADIGER ............. 694
Bio-efficacy and lethal reproductive effects of three entomopathogenic fungi against pink mealybug,
Aconellicoccus hirsutus Green infesting grapes
¾ U. AMALA, C. CHINNIAH, INDU S. SAWANT, N. MUTHUKRISHNAN and C. MUTHIAH ............. 697
Study on preferred stage of fruiting bodies for infestation of gall former on chilli and screening of chilli
genotypes against G. asulcata G.
¾ K.K. KALAVATHI, A. NAGANAGOUDA, A.G. SREENIVAS and A. PRABHURAJ ............. 701
Population diversity of bio-agents in conservation agriculture ecosystem of redgram and maize
¾ N.M. PRABHAVATHI, Y. S. AMARESH, M.K. NAIK, P. H. KUCHANUR and S.B. MALLESH ............. 705
Performance of sugarcane growers in Cauvery, Tunga & Ghata prabha areas of Karnataka - An economic analysis
¾ T.S. GANESHPRASAD, B.C. RAJUR and NAGARAJ NAIK ............. 708
Farmers' accessibility for various services towards private and public extension services
¾ JASVINDER KAUR, JOGINDER S. MALIK, P.S. SHEHRAWAT, SUSHILA DAHIYA and
QUADRI JAVEED AHMED PEER ............. 712
Export dynamics of arabica plantation coffee from India
¾ N. ASHOKA, BALACHANDRA K. NAIK and VILAS S. KULKARNI ............. 716
Short Communications
Minimum tillage and improved practices for rainfed cotton cultivation in Maharashtra, Central India
¾ R.T. GAHUKAR ............. 720
Foraging activities of honeybees on mustard (Brassica juncea L.) under Konkan condition of Maharashtra
¾ A.P. SANAS, A.L. NARANGALKAR, S.K. GODASE, V.S. DESAI and H.R. SAWAI ............. 723
Strategic Vision : 22
Strategies to mitigate the Global Warming in relation to Indian Agriculture
¾ Dr. R. MAHADEV SHELAKE Back Inner Page
 Green Farming Vol. 5 (4) : 716-719 ; July-August, 2014 Research Paper

Export dynamics of arabica plantation coffee from India$

a1* b2 b3
N. ASHOKA , BALACHANDRA K. NAIK and VILAS S. KULKARNI
a
Deptt. of Agri. Economics, College of Horiticulture, Munirabad, Dt & Tq Koppal - 583 233
b
Deptt. of Agribusiness Managment, College of Agriculture, Dharwad - 580 005 (Karnataka)

Received : 23 Feb 2014 ; Revised accepted : 25 July 2014

ABSTRACT

Currently, country is facing several constraints in diversification of export of Arabica plantation coffee. In this context, the
study examines the growth, competitiveness and direction trade of Arabica plantation coffee exports from India. The results
indicate that the growth of export was negative for major importing countries like Germany, Kuwait and Russian Federation.
However, Arabica plantation coffee exports to Italy and Belgium are growing positively with higher coefficient of variation. This
trend reveals that India is losing its international market in two front viz., deceleration in export to traditional markets and
moving towards new unstable markets. However, Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) indicated that Italy and Germany are
the most competitive destinations for export of Indian Arabica plantation coffee. Further, the Markov chain model proved the
fact that probability of retention of export share was less among major Arabica plantation coffee importing counties. The
export projections have shown that, Japan and Germany would be the largest importers of Arabica plantation coffee from
India in near future.

Key words : Arabica plantation coffee, Competitiveness, Export dynamics, Growth, Markov chain model.

INTRODUCTION

Coffee is one of the most valuable agricultural commodities in function of the following type was used to estimate the growth
world. It is of great significance of the world economy as the rate (Gujarati, 1992).
t
commodity entering the international trade and hence aptly Y = ab et ………………… (1)
described as 'Brown gold'. Coffee is the world's favorite Where,
beverage. India produces both washed and unwashed coffees. Y = Dependent variable for which growth rate is estimated
Arabica coffee is predominantly processed by the “Wet Process” a = Intercept b = Regression co-efficient
to produce plantation coffee, while robusta is mainly converted t = Time variable e = Error term
into cherry coffee.
The compound growth rate was obtained for the logarithmic form
India is facing several constraints in diversification of export of the equation as below.
market and consolidation of existing market. India's export share In Y = ln a + t ln b …………….. (2)
of Arabica plantation coffee has been decreasing to major
Then, the per cent compound growth rate (g) was computed by
destinations viz., Germany and Belgium during the study period.
using the relationship
In this critical situation, it is necessary to study the growth,
competitiveness and structural changes in export of export of g = (b - 1) x 100 …………….. (3)
Where,
Arabica plantation coffee from India. Hence, attempt has been to
g = Estimated compound growth rate per annum in %.
study the export performance of Arabica plantation coffee from
b = Antilog of log b
India.
For estimating the long-run trend of Arabica plantation coffee
METHODOLOGY export, the method of ordinary least squares (OLS) estimate was
Growth rate analysis : For the present study, the data on employed. This method of ascertaining the trend in a series of
destination of export of Arabica plantation coffee for the past 14 data involves estimating the coefficient of intercept (a) and slope
years i.e., from 2000-01 to 2011-12 have been collected from (b) in the linear functional form. The equation adopted for this
Coffee Statistics at Coffee Board of India, Bangalore. Compound purpose was specified as follows,
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to estimate growth Yt = a + bX + e
performance of Arabica plantation coffee export. Exponential Where
1 2 Yt = Trend values at time t X = Period in years
Assistant Prof. (ashokan.abm@gmail.com), Professor,
3
a = intercept parameter b = slope parameter e = Error
Associate Professor
218
 $
July-August 2014 Export dynamics of arabica plantation coffee from India 717

Nominal protection coefficient : Nominal Protection I = is an appropriately dimensional vectors of areas

Coefficient (NPC) is a direct measure of competitiveness of a e = is the vector of absolute errors
country towards a commodity in the context of free trade. The Y = is the proportion of exports to each country.
NPC is defined as the ratio of the domestic price to the world X = is a block diagonal matrix of lagged values of Y
reference price of the commodity under consideration. V = is the vector of errors
Symbolically, : NPC = Pd/ Pr G = is a grouping matrix to add the row elements of P
Where, NPC = Nominal protection coefficient arranged in P* to unity.
Pd = Domestic price of the commodity in question
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Pr = World reference price of the commodity in question
i.e., what the farmer would have received in case of free trade. The growth in Arabica plantation coffee export from India are
Markov chain process : Central to Markov chain analysis is the presented in table 1. Among the countries, Italy and Belgium are
estimation of transitional probability matrix, 'P'. The element 'Pij' continue to increase their annual Arabica plantation coffee
imports from India, which indicated by positive growth rates. The
of this matrix indicates the probability that export will switch from
rate of growth of export to Italy was highest among importing
country I to j, with the passage of time. The diagonal element 'Pij'
countries with 4.94 per cent per year. However, the coefficient of
(i=j) measures the probability the export share of that country will
variation of export to Italy registered considerable level, which
be retained. An examination of this matrix will indicate the stability
includes that there is instability in export quantity to Italy. Arabica
of particular export destination of India.
plantation coffee exports to Belgium was growing positively with
In the context of current application, there are five major
higher coefficient of variation. The results indicate that growth of
destinations of export of Arabica plantation coffee from India.
Arabica plantation coffee exports in terms of quantity was
They are Germany, Italy, Belgium, Kuwait and Russian
negative for major importing countries like Germany, Kuwait and
Federation and others. To estimate the transitional probability
Russian Federation. In addition to this, the growth of total export
matrix, the annual export of Arabica plantation coffee from India
of Arabica plantation coffee from India during study period
to different destination countries for fourteen years was used.
noticed negative. This trend shows that India is losing its
Further, the export to particular country was considered to be a
international markets in two fronts viz., deceleration in export to
random variable, which depends only on its past export to that
traditional markets and moving towards new unstable markets.
country and following a first order Markov model, it can be
denoted algebraically as, Table 1. Trends in Arabica plantation coffee export quantity
n from India (2000-01 to 2011-12)
Ejt = S [ Eit-1 ] Pij + ejt
i=1 Average Share CV CAGR
Where, Country (metric tons) (per cent) (per cent) (% per annum)
th
Ejt = Exports from India to the j country in the year t
th Germany 10995.30 25.28 50.01 -9.01
Eit-1= Exports of i country during the year t-1 Italy 5206.70 11.97 29.41 4.94
Pi j = Probability that exports will shift from ith country to jth Belgium 4614.46 10.61 47.21 1.14
country Kuwait 2413.46 5.55 16.70 -0.94
ejt = The error term which is statistically independent of Eit-1 Russian 2474.21 5.69 54.69 -9.60
n = The number of importing countries Federation
Others 17789.71 40.90 27.53 -4.57
The transitional probabilities Pij, which can be arranged in a (cxn)
Total 43493.85 100.00 26.10 -4.05
matrix, have the following properties.
n Competitiveness of export of Indian Arabica plantation
S PIj = 1 and 0 < P I j < 1 coffee : The values of Nominal Protection Coefficients (NPC) for
i=1
Arabica plantation coffee exports to different destinations are
Thus, the expected export share of each country during
presented in the Table 2. The modal wholesale price of Arabica
period 't' is obtained by multiplying the exports to these countries
plantation coffee in Chikmagalur market during the year 2012
in the previous period (t-1). Similarly, the future export share of
was `21,600 per quintal. The average transportation cost ( `
each of the importing country can also be estimated. The
30/q), marketing margin to exporters (`756/q) and port clearing
transitional probability matrix was estimated in the linear
and handling charges (`750/q) were taken into consideration to
programming (LP) frame work by a method referred to as
arrive at Free on Board (FOB) prices, which worked out to `
minimization of mean absolute deviation. The LP formulation is
23,136 per quintal. Estimated country-wise NPC was worked out
stated as
for the year 2012 under exportable hypothesis. Italy and
Min, OP* + I e
Germany were found to be highly competitive markets with NPC
Subject to X P* + V = Y ; GP* = 1 ; P* > 0
of 0.64 and 0.74 respectively. Rest of the countries under study
Where
i.e., Belgium, Kuwait and Russian Federation were also found to
P* = is a vector of the probabilities P I j
be competitive in comparison to domestic market, having NPC
O = is the vector of zeros of 0.93, 0.83 and 0.88 respectively.

219 Green Farming

718 Ashoka et al. Green Farming 5 (4)

Table 2. Nominal protection coefficient (NPC) for export of Arabica plantation coffee for the year 2012
Sr. Russian
Particulars Unit Italy Germany Belgium Kuwait
No. Federation
1 Wholesale price ` /q 21600 21600 21600 21600 21600
2 Transport cost ` /q 30 30 30 30 30
3 Marketing margin (3.5% wholesale price) `/q 756 756 756 756 756
4 Port clearing & handling charges `/q 750 750 750 750 750
5 FOB Price (1+2+3+4) `/q 23136 23136 23136 23136 23136
6 Freight charges ` /q 550 605 650 580 640
7 Insurance (2%) FOB price ` /q 462.72 462.72 462.72 462.72 462.72
8 Landed cost (5+6+7) ` /q 24148.72 24203.72 24248.72 24178.72 24238.72
9 Exchange rate 1$=` 53 53 53 53 53
10 CIF price (row 8/row 9) USD/q 455.64 456.67 457.52 456.20 457.33
11 Reference price USD/q 710 620 494 548 520
12 NPC (row 10/row 11) 0.64 0.74 0.93 0.83 0.88
Italy emerged as the most competitive country for exports of Table 3. Transitional probability matrix for export of Arabica
Arabica plantation coffee from India during the study period. plantation coffee from India (2000-01 to 2011-12)
Italy's acceptance of Indian Arabica plantation coffee is Destinations Germany Italy Belgium Kuwait Russian F. Other
remarkable and India is also has been making tremendous
Germany 0.5042 0.0000 0.0854 0.0410 0.0000 0.3694
improvement in quality of the exportable product and thus Italy
Italy 0.0000 0.5947 0.1943 0.0000 0.0000 0.2110
has emerged as India's biggest export market for Arabica Belgium 0.1819 0.1775 0.1263 0.0299 0.1458 0.3386
plantation coffee. Similarly, Germany also emerged as next best Kuwait 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2990 0.0000 0.7010
competitive destination for export of Arabica plantation coffee Russian Fed. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0726 0.1636 0.1440 0.6198
from India. Germany is one of the leading coffee exporters of Others 0.2160 0.0883 0.1159 0.0289 0.0810 0.4699
value added coffee in the world which prepares value added
products of the coffee from coffee beans. India is indulged in retained 15 per cent of its previous export share of Arabica
production and export of mild coffee compared to other plantation coffee from India during the study period. In the same
producing counties. Low acid content of the coffee because this period it lost lion share to 'other countries' i.e., 62 per cent and 16
is grown under the shade are the major characteristics features per cent to Kuwait. The 'other countries' had retained probability
of Indian mild coffee. Germany buys raw coffee beans from of 47 per cent and same countries lost 22 per cent share to
developing countries at cheaper price and makes profit out of Germany during the study period.
processing and re-exporting the brown commodity. Germany is The Markov chain process confirms the fact that the
nd
the 2 largest exporting country of Roasted coffee in the world. probability of retention of export share was less among major
Changing direction of export of arabica plantation coffee : Arabica plantation coffee importers from India. Further, the
Transitional probabilities of Indian Arabica plantation coffee probability of gains of major importing countries was less than
exports are presented in Table 3. The structural changes in the the probability of losses to 'other minor importing countries'. The
share of exports of Indian Arabica plantation coffee was analyzed probability of more loss to 'other countries' implied the, the
through a first order Markov model. It is evident from results that exports were moved from traditional importing countries to
the retention probability was highest in the Italy with 0.59. nontraditional importing counties.
Retention probability of Germany stood second with 0.50. This Italy and Germany were the stable importers of Arabica
implies that the probability of retaining export share of Germany plantation coffee with retention of 60 and 50 per cent share
was 50 per cent. Similar interpretation could be made for respectively during the study period. This retention may be
Belgium, Kuwait & Russian Federation with probabilities of because of the increase in consumption level of coffee during
retention of 13, 30 & 14 per cent & 'other countries' with the the study period in Italy and Germany. The ethnic populations
probability of retention of o.47. residing in these countries are consumers of coffee from the time
The probability of gains for Germany from Belgium was only immemorial. Coffee is also consumed as a beverage for
18 per cent. However, probability of loss to 'other countries' was reduction of blood pressure in human beings. Therefore, India
37 per cent. Further, probability of gains of Italy from Belgium was can relay more upon Germany, Italy for export of Arabica
18 per cent. On the other hand, its probability of loss to Belgium plantation coffee. Contrary results were reported by Veena et al.
and 'other countries' were 19 and 21 per cent respectively. (1994) for export of coffee from India indicated that India retained
Similarly, probability of gains of Belgium from 'other countries' its market share to former West Germany, while USSR and Italy
was 12 per cent, probability of loss were 34 per cent for 'other lost their share. Similar results were reported by Reddy and
countries', 18 per cent each for Germany and Italy and 15 per Samaya (2012) for export of total coffee from India. This result is
cent for Russian Federation. Similarly, the probability of retention well supported by the NPC of export of Arabica plantation coffee
was 30 per cent for Kuwait during the study period but it lost 70 from India (Table 2) wherein the NPV values are lowest with
per cent of export share to 'other countries'. Russian Federation respect to Italy and Germany.

220
 $
July-August 2014 Export dynamics of arabica plantation coffee from India 719

Table 4. Projections for export of Arabica plantation coffee to major importing countries from India (Metric Tons)
Russian
Year/ Germany Italy Belgium Kuwait Federation Others
Countries
A* B** A* B** A* B** A* B** A* B** A* B**
2000-01 19468 3103 5825 2828 3147 21595
(34.78) (5.54) (10.40) (5.05) (5.62) (38.58)
2011-12 6193.0 6993.0 4221.00 2265.00 639.0 13433.0
(18.35) (20.72) (12.51) (6.71) (1.89) (39.81)
2012-13 7069.91 5529.45 3966.00 1545.83 1937.82 13694.99
(20.95) (16.39) (11.75) (4.58) (5.74) (40.58)
2013-14 7244.18 5201.60 3906.98 1583.46 1966.58 13841.19
(21.47) (15.41) (11.58) (4.69) (5.83) (41.02)
2014-15 7352.89 5009.06 3869.74 1609.03 1973.96 13929.31
(21.79) (14.84) (11.47) (4.77) (5.85) (41.28)
2015-16 7419.97 4895.72 3847.66 1623.77 1976.73 13980.14
(21.99) (14.51) (11.40) (4.81) (5.86) (41.43)
2016-17 7460.75 4828.89 3834.67 1632.19 1978.03 14009.46
(22.11) (14.31) (11.36) (4.84) (5.86) (41.52)
*A for Actual **B for Projected
It would be necessary to give more stress on Belgium, Kuwait decline in plantation coffee exports both in quantity and relative
and Russian Federation as these are least loyal importers of terms in future. The quantity exports would be 1545.83 metric
Arabica plantation coffee from India as reflected by lower tons (4.58%) in 2012-13 and 1632.19 metric tons (4.84%).
probability of retention values. The plans for export should be The export share of Russian Federation during 2011-12 was
oriented towards these two countries and also plans should be 1.89 per cent to the total plantation coffee export during 2011-12
formulated for stabilizing the export to other countries. The (639 metric tons). As projected figure indicate, the export would
countries pooled under 'others category' had 47 per cent of the range between 1937.82 metric tons (5.74%) in 2012-13 to
retention of its original share in the present study. 1978.03 metric tons (5.86%) in 2016-17. The share of other
Projections of export of Arabica plantation coffee from India : countries for import of Arabica plantation coffee from India would
The projection of the Indian Arabica plantation coffee export to remain almost same in actual and projected period.
different countries was computed using the transitional probability The export projections of Arabica plantation coffee to major
matrix and the results of actual and projected exports have been countries through 2016-17 indicate that Germany suppose to
presented in Table 4. The market share projections of Arabica dominate the export basket of Arabica plantation coffee of India.
plantation coffee exports to different countries have been However, Italy and Belgium also going to share sizeable
computed up to 2016-17. proportions in Arabica plantation coffee export scenario.
As it is evident from table 4 that, during 2011-12 the actual Keeping in view of the foregoing discussions, more stress has
quantity of Arabica plantation coffee exported to Germany to be given on the countries such as Belgium, Kuwait and
represented 18.35 per cent of the total Arabica plantation coffee Russian Federation for maintaining present status of export and
exports from India. The estimates of exports indicate that Arabica the government has to give more importance to the countries
plantation coffee exports to Germany is expected to reach such as Italy and Germany to maintain the market share in the
7069.91 metric tons during 2012-13 which may constitute 20.95 future. The policies have to be drawn based on the problems
per cent of total exports of Arabica plantation coffee from India faced by the importing countries, so that the export of Arabica
during the period. It expected that Arabica plantation coffee export plantation coffee would increase in future and India may earn
may go up to 7460.75 metric tons by the year 2016-17 which will more foreign exchange.
be around 22.11 per cent of total export of Arabica plantation
coffee from India. As per the projections the export of the coffee REFERENCES
grade may go down in case of Italy 5529 metric tons in 2012-13 Coffee Board, 2012. Coffee Statistics, Bangalore.
from the actual export of 6993 tons during 2011-12. It is expected Coffee Board, 2013. Coffee Statistics, Bangalore.
that the exports may further decrease to 4829 metric tons by Gujarati Damodaran N. 1992. Basic Econometrics, McGraw Book
2016-17. Company, New York, p.169.
The proportion of Arabica plantation coffee export to Belgium Reddy Vijaychandra and Samaya Gairhe 2012. Scenario of coffee in
in relative terms would decline to 11.36 per cent (3834.67 metric India - An overview. Res. J. Agric. Sci. 3 (1) : 259-261.
Veena U M, Suryaprakash S and Lalith Achoth. 1994. Changing
tons) of the total export of the coffee grade during 2016-17 against
direction of trade of Indian coffee exports. Ind. J. Agric. Econ. 49
actual proportion of 12.51 per cent during 2011-12. In case of
(3) : 425-431.
Kuwait, the actual export of Arabica plantation coffee was 2265
Velavan C. and Prahadeeswaran M. 2012. Changing direction and
metric tons during 2011-12 which was around 6.71 per cent to the
performance of Indian tea exports. Ind. J. Agric. Mktg. 26 (1): 131-
total Plantation coffee exported from India. The trend shows 137. 2
221 Green Farming