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RESEARCH

WEEKLY
AGRI REPORT
Spices Falls On Profit Booking!

11th Oct 2010 to 16th Oct 2010

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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct to 16 Oct 2010 Agri Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

JEERA REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

JEERA FALLS ON WEAK DEMAND Weak Demand

Ifall in Jeera Futures is keeping the buyers follow wait and watch stance Lower Stocks
since past few days. However, any revival of demand in good quantity from
overseas buyers may support prices to strengthen in the short term (till
October). There are lower stocks of Jeera in the domestic market till the Weekly Pivots
fresh arrivals expected in the month of March. This will also add to the
gains in the short to medium term (till mid of November). Prices in the SCRIPT JEERA
international market of Syrian origin are being offered at higher rates than R4 15345
Indian origin. This will help prices to find support and strengthen in the R3 14623
medium term (November). In long term (December onwards), Jeera prices R2 13901
will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers and
R1 13485
sowing progress in the major Jeera growing areas particularly Rajasthan
and Gujarat. Spread between October and November contract is at Rs.141 P 13179
as compared to Rs.115 the previous day. Jeera prices in the intraday will S1 12763
trade sideways with no clear fundamentals to drive the prices. In the short S2 12457
term (till October), trend will depend on Jeera price parity of various origins S3 11735
in international market. In the medium to long term (November onwards)
S4 11013
prices are likely to take cues from stocks with major producing nation such
as India, Syria and Turkey.

Weekly Chart

Last week Jeera was mostly in bearish trend and was not able to sustain at higher levels, but we saw some short covering
coming on the last day of the week. For the next week resistance in Jeera is found at 13615 and support at 12500.

Strategy
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera
sustains below the level of 12500 then we can expect a level of 12000, and if it sustains above 13615 we can see the level of
13900.
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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct to 16 Oct 2010 Agri Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

GUARSEED REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

GUAR SEED DECLINES ON POOR LOCAL DEMAND Poor Local Demand

The Guar seed futures on NCDEX made a new contract low on Commencement Of New Harvesting
extended selling pressure backed by weak fundamental factors. Weak
demand for Guar products in the spot market and commencement of
new harvesting is few places added bearishness to the market. The Weekly Pivots
Guar seed and Guar gum futures are projected to trade on a positive
SCRIPT GUARSEED
note on short covering since the prices have fallen to new yearly low,
R4 2218
we are expecting a short covering however, bumper crop expectation is
likely to limit the gains. Crop harvesting has been started in few places R3 2146
and likely to intensify in couple of days. Guar seed production is R2 2074
expected to be around 70-80 lakh bags this year on higher acreage. R1 2050
Guar seed stocks at exchange warehouse rose to 24,276 tons on 6th P 2002
October from 23,206 tons and around 2701 tons is in demat process.
S1 1978
Spot price of Guar seed declined to `1930-1950 per quintal while Gum
S2 1930
is quoting at `4700-4740 per quintal.
S3 1858
S4 1786

Weekly Chart

Last week Guar seed was mostly in consolidation but on the last day of the week we saw some good buying coming at lower
levels and it closed near to its weekly high. For the next week resistance in Guar seed is found at 2100 and support at 1930.

Strategy
For next week traders should go for selling on higher level strategy, if Guar seed sustains below the level of 1930 we can see
the level of 1860, and above 2100 it can come up till 2160.
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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct Commodity
to 16 Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

SOYABEAN REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

SOYBEAN GAINS ON EXPORT DEMAND Better Export Demand

NCDEX October Soybean futures closed higher on second consecutive Fresh Arrivals
day due to firm spot market and better export figures of oil meal in the
month of September 2010. Spread between NCDEX October and Weekly Pivots
November contract is Rs 38.50 against previous day of Rs 39.00 per
SCRIPT SOYABEAN
100 Kg. CBOT November Soybean futures ended higher at $
R4 2576
10.65/bushels on Thursday, up 3.00 cents/bushel as compared to
R3 2407
previous close. CBOT December Soybean meal futures ended higher at
R2 2238
$ 296.20/ton on Thursday, up $0.40/tonne as compared to previous
R1 2181
close. In the short term, Soybean prices are expected to trade higher on
P 2069
better export demand of soy meal. However, for the medium term,
S1 2013
prices are expected to slip slightly on account of fresh arrivals in S2 1900
Madhya Pradesh, which is a major producing state of Soybean and it S3 1731
contributes more than 50% of its total production. Existing better carry S4 1568
over stock this year as compared to last year are in favour of bears.

Weekly Chart

Last week Soybean was mostly in uptrend and we saw some good buying coming at the end of the week and it even closed at
its weekly high. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2195 and support at 1980.

Strategy
Soybean is in a consolidation phase on charts and one should look for buying opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean sustains
above the level of 2195 we can see the level of 2250, and on the down side if it sustains below the level of 1980 we can see
Soybean at 1950 level.
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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct Commodity
to 16 Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

CHANA REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

CHANA GAINS ON FESTIVE DEMAND Festive Demand

Demand for Chana dal has improved in the past few weeks; however, Higher Sowing Acreage
weakness in other Pulses is capping the gains at higher levels. Festive
demand ahead may keep Chana prices firm only in the short term.
According to the market sources, MSP of Chana which was set at Rs. Weekly Pivots
1760 per qtl in the last year may increase to Rs. 2100 per qtl. This will SCRIPT CHANA
support the Chana prices as, no farmer will sell their produce below Rs. R4 2551
2100 per qtl. Overall fundamentals are not supportive for the prices to R3 2476
rise in the medium term (November) as India is going to harvest record
R2 2401
pulses crop in Kharif 2010. The acreage under pulses has expanded by a
R1 2364
whopping 20 lakh hectares from last year. Spread between October and
P 2326
November contract is at Rs. 46 as compared to Rs.50 per qtl. In the short
term, Chana prices may trade sideways with positive bias on S1 2289
expectations of better demand ahead of festive seasons. However, S2 2251
November onwards, Chana futures are expected to remain under S3 2176
pressure on the reports of higher sowing acreage under Kharif Pulses. In S4 2101
the long term (December onwards) Chana prices may take cues from the
prices of other pulses and sowing progress of Chana in the major
growing areas.
Weekly Chart

Last week Chana was mostly in a consolidation phase and it was neither able to sustain at higher level nor at lower level. For
the coming week Chana has resistance at 2435 and support at 2230.

Strategy
Overall trend of Chana is of consolidation and one should go for selling at higher levels strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2230 level we can see it at 2160 and above 2435 we can expect the level of 2520.
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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct Commodity
to 16 Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA 14623.33 13901.33 13485.67 13179.33 12763.67 12457.33 11735.33

TURMERIC 16660.00 15558.00 15104.00 14456.00 14002.00 13354.00 12252.00

PEPPER 20661.67 19646.67 18998.33 18631.67 17983.33 17616.67 16601.67

SOYABEAN 2407.17 2238.17 2181.83 2069.17 2012.83 1900.17 1731.17

GUARGUM 5093.33 4920.33 4837.67 4747.33 4664.67 4574.33 4401.33

GUARSEED 2146.33 2074.33 2049.67 2002.33 1977.67 1930.33 1858.33

CHANA 2476.00 2401.00 2364.00 2326.00 2289.00 2251.00 2176.00

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

MUSTARD SEED 605.22 579.47 569.43 553.72 543.68 527.97 502.22

KAPAS 768.73 746.13 737.07 723.53 714.47 700.93 678.33

GUR 1068.67 1013.67 989.33 958.67 934.33 903.67 848.67

CARDAMOM 1113.40 1071.40 1043.80 1029.40 1001.80 987.40 945.40

CRUDE PALM OIL 470.77 444.37 435.53 417.97 409.13 391.57 470.77

REFINED SOYA OIL 570.78 536.83 525.52 502.88 491.57 468.93 434.98

MENTHA OIL 1163.43 1049.93 1007.87 936.43 894.37 822.93 709.43

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 Weekly Report Agri
Weekly
11th Oct Commodity
to 16 Oct 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

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