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140 need to take 3-4% price hikes in the coming quarters, in order to maintain gross
130
120
margin expansion trajectory of 100bps. The management indicated, on the
110 conference call, the possibility of taking such price hikes post-August. We expect the
company to report a 135bps expansion in EBITDA margin over FY13-15, led by
Nov-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
PBIT
Consumer care business 2,776 2,397 15.8 2,950 (5.9)
Foods business 383 334 14.8 302 27.0
Retail business (9) (24) (62.5) (14) (35.3)
Others 25 44 (41.9) 20 27.0
Total 3,176 2,751 15.4 3,258 (2.5)
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
5.5 5.1
6
0
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
• Guidance for future growth: The company expects volumes to grow in the 8%-
12% band (more towards 8-10%) with a possibility of 5-6% price hikes in the
coming quarters.
• CSD channel: The company has deployed additional salesmen for institutional
business, including the CSD channel. Dabur derives about 5%-7% of its sales
from this channel. We expect the institutional channel to see healthy growth in the
coming quarters.
• Modern trade registered strong growth of about 20%: The channel contributes
about 9%-10% to the overall domestic sales.
• Rural growth benefitting from ‘Project Double’: With ‘Project Double’, the
company has expanded its distribution network from 14,865 villages in Mar’11 to
30,091 villages in Mar’13. More importantly, there was a significant improvement
in the portfolio mix sold in the rural markets. Going forward, categories like skin
care and home care, where margins are high, will benefit from ‘Project Double’.
• Hair care: This category grew by 10% YoY during Q1FY14. Perfumed hair oil
grew by 15.3% YoY aided by double-digit volume growth. The shampoo category
grew at 29.4% due to relaunch of the Vatika Premium Naturals range. For FY13,
the hair care category crossed Rs10bn in sales.
• Oral care: Dabur’s toothpaste portfolio grew by 14%, while toothpowder posted
marginal decline in sales. The premium brands (Dabur Red and Meswak)
continued to perform well; however, the economy brand (Babool) continued to face
pressure.
• Home care: In line with expectations, Dabur’s home care segment posted >26%
growth driven by both Odonil and Odomos.
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
Chart 2: Performance of domestic consumer business
30 Q1FY13 1QFY14
25.8
25
20 18
15.1 14.4
12.7 11.8 13.3 12.7
15 11.8
(%)
9.8 10.4
7.5 8.1 8.6
10
supplemen
Digestives
Home
Ethicals
Oral Care
Skin Care
Hair Care
Care
OTC &
Health
ts
• Digestives: The category registered a 15.1% YoY growth as Hajmola and Candy
and the newly launched Anardana variant performed well
• Real Juice registered a growth of about ~19% YoY. INR depreciation will put
pressure on the margins of the juice portfolio, which will be partly compensated by
price hikes.
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
PAT
FY14E 9,530 9,308 (2.3)
FY15E 11,406 10,986 (3.7)
Source: Bloomberg data, I-Sec research
Our revenue estimates for FY13-15 are in line with consensus. However, our EPS
estimate for FY14 are ahead of consensus by 3.6% and for FY15 by 3.9%, as we
expect the EBITDA margin to expand by 134bps over FY13-15, driven by 89bps gross
margin expansion during the period.
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
Chart 3: P/E multiple
32
28
24
(x)
20
16
12
8
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
DCF-based valuation
Valuing the company on the DCF methodology, the three stages are:
• Stage 1 (FY14-FY15): During this period, we expect the company to grow its
revenues and PAT at CAGR of 16% and 22% respectively. We expect RoE to
decline from 40% at the start of this stage to 37.4% by its end.
• Stage 2 (FY16-FY25): During this period, we expect the company to post revenue
and PAT CAGR of 14%.
• Stage 3 (FY26 onwards): We have assumed a perpetual growth rate of 4% for
the period.
To arrive at the WACC of 10.9%, we have assumed the cost of equity at 10.9% and
the cost of debt at 12.5%. Based on these assumptions, we arrive at a DCF-based
valuation of Rs191/share for Dabur.
Risks
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
Financial summary
Table 6: Profit & Loss statement Table 9: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 53,054 61,761 71,685 83,246 Operating Cashflow 7,471 8,894 10,770 12,721
Operating Expenses 44,153 51,510 58,922 68,310 Working Capital Changes (421) (473) (466) (385)
EBITDA 8,902 10,251 12,763 14,936 Capital Commitments (2,402) (1,189) (1,500) (1,500)
% margins 16.8 16.6 17.8 17.9 Free Cashflow 4,648 7,232 8,805 10,836
Depreciation & Amortisation 1,032 1,124 1,240 1,315 Cashflow from Investing
Gross Interest 538 589 576 576 Activities (638) (3,601) (500) (1,000)
Other Income 574 946 1,040 1,248 Issue of Share Capital (556) (558) (0) 0
Recurring PBT 7,905 9,484 11,988 14,293 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 473 833 - -
Less: Taxes 1,464 1,826 2,457 2,887 Dividend paid (2,632) (3,050) (3,762) (4,473)
Less: Minority Interest (8) 24 - - Change in Deferred Tax
Net Income (Reported) 6,449 7,634 9,530 11,406 Liability 85 88 - -
Extraordinaries (Net) (47) (56) - - Chg. in Cash & Bank
Recurring Net Income 6,496 7,690 9,530 11,406 balances 1,380 944 4,543 5,363
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Dabur India, July 24, 2013 ICICI Securities
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