Brampton

Mayoral Voting Intentions

20th October 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on
results of a survey conducted in the city
of Brampton on October 19th among 517
residents of Brampton, aged 18 years of age
or older. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from various
commerically available sources and random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.29%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BROWN WITH A NARROW LEAD AS BRAMPTON MAYORAL ELECTION HEADS TO ITS
CONCLUSION

20 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Former PC leader Patrick Brown has a narrow lead over
Linda Jeffrey and is on course to become the next mayor of Brampton.

Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research poll of 517 residents of Brampton, aged 18
and over. The survey was conducted on October 19th and has a margin of error of +/- 4.29%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Brown has the advantage coming into the final weekend,” said Quito Maggi, President and
CEO of Mainstret Research. “But his lead is barely outside the margin of error and will still
need to have a strong get-out-the-vote effort to see himself over the line on Monday.”

Among decided voters, Brown leads with 43.9% support, while Jeffrey has 39.3% support.
Councillor John Sprovieri has 6.6% support while former MP Bas Gosal has 4.6%.

“Jeffrey is still very much in this race despite Brown’s advantage”, added Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in
your municipal election in Brampton. Which mayoral
All candidate
Voters would you vote for?

17.4%

36.3%
4.7%

5.4%
All Voters

3.8%
Decided Voters
32.4%

5.6%
All Voters
Patrick Brown6.6% Bal Gosal Linda Jeffrey John Sprovieri

Someone Else Undecided

17.4%

43.9%
36.3%
4.7%
Decided Voters
5.4%
All Voters
39.3%

3.8%

32.4% 4.6%

Patrick Brown Bal Gosal Linda Jeffrey John Sprovieri

Patrick Brown Bal Gosal Linda Jeffrey John Sprovieri
Someone Else Undecided
Someone Else
 Breakouts
On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal
election in Brampton. Which mayoral candidate would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Patrick Brown 36.3% 40.5% 32.2% 33.3% 36.2% 40.6% 34.4%
Bal Gosal 3.8% 4.9% 2.8% 9.1% 1% 0.6% 5%
Linda Jeffrey 32.4% 30.4% 34.3% 33.2% 26.9% 33.1% 36.2%
John Sprovieri 5.4% 5.5% 5.3% 3.1% 5% 5.5% 8.1%
Someone Else 4.7% 5.6% 3.8% 6.1% 7% 3.1% 2.7%
Undecided 17.4% 13% 21.6% 15.2% 23.9% 17.1% 13.5%
Unweighted Frequency 517 244 273 33 100 163 221
Weighted Frequency 517 253 264 123 124 144 126

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Patrick Brown 43.9% 46.6% 41.1% 39.3% 47.5% 48.9% 39.8%
Bal Gosal 4.6% 5.6% 3.6% 10.8% 1.3% 0.7% 5.8%
Linda Jeffrey 39.3% 35.0% 43.8% 39.2% 35.4% 40% 41.9%
John Sprovieri 6.6% 6.4% 6.8% 3.6% 6.6% 6.7% 9.4%
Someone Else 5.6% 6.4% 4.8% 7.2% 9.2% 3.7% 3.1%
Unweighted Frequency 430 217 213 28 76 135 191
Weighted Frequency 430 220 207 105 94 119 109
Questionnaire
On October 22 2018, you What is your gender?
will have a chance to vote Male
in your municipal election. Female
Which candidate for mayor
would you vote, or are What is your age group?
leaning towards voting for, 18 to 34 years of age
for if an election were held 35 to 49 years of age
today? 50 to 64 years of age
(first four responses 65 years of age or older
randomized)
Patrick Brown
Bal Gosal
Linda Jeffrey
John Sprovieri
Someone Else
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted in the city of Brampton
among 517 residents, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
the city of Brampton.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence level for this survey is +/- 4.29%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.