Scenario Report

European Vital Cities

P A R I S

Charlotte Uebis Matthias Herberger Mauro Jurriens

Teun van der Heide Hans-Theo Albrecht

Preface

This report is concerned with Paris, the past of the city from the very beginning, the current
situation the city is facing today, as well as possible scenarios of what the future could look like
for Parisiens. Different aspects like the economy, technology, sport, health, pollution, culture
and more are being assessed and analysed to get to know the city, explain the DNA of the city
and to be able to give advice based on facts and numbers. The research of the city is than
compared to the team’s vision of a vital city and the sustainable development goals by the
World Health Organization. Afterwards, four possible scenarios are demonstrated, using the key
drivers of the city: segregation and economy. The scenarios are describing the possible future
of Paris in four different ways from today until 2050 and are supposed to advise the city on how
to become more vital, improve aspects like the air- and noise pollution or quality of life in short-,
middle-, and long-term ways.
The research team consists of Charlotte Uebis, Hans-Theo Albrecht, Matthias Herberger, Mauro
Jurriens and Teun van de Heide.

25 October 2018.

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 Page of Content

1. Introduction
1.1 Vision of the city
1.2 Vision of the team

2. ​DNA of the city

2.1 Economy
2.2 Sport
2.3 Health
2.4 Social

3. ​Scenario planning process

3.1 Issues and the drivers causing it
3.2 Four Plausible Scenarios

4. ​Scenarios
4.1 Scenario A
4.2 Scenario B
4.3 Scenario C
4.4 Scenario D

5. ​Afterword

6. ​References

7. ​Appendix
7.1 Evidence
7.2 Peer assessment

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 1. Introduction

A vital city can have different definitions. It can mean the “Urban sports promotion for social
inclusion, healthy and active living”, as defined in the URBACT III ​programme URBACT (n.d.)​,
funded by the European Union. It can also be more about improving the quality of life, the
economy and/or the functionality of a city.
To the research team, a vital city is aware of ongoing issues and changes to the city and its
inhabitants. The city council makes use of sport, research, planning, policies, technology and all
its other resources to keep the quality of life, happiness and equality of the population as high
as possible.

1.1 Vision of the city

Paris has had three core values since its founding as a fortified Celtic settlement in the third
century before Christ: “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.” After the revolution that lasted from 1789 to
1799, the words laïcité et la démocratie were added, which stands for democracy. Today, it is
Paris’ motto, separated in three pieces that stand for the freedom of every man and woman as
long as it does not harm another’s, the impartiality of every man and woman in front of the court,
and the equality of man and woman regardless of race, ethnicity, and beliefs. ​Kwasniewski, V.
(2011, April 27)​ One of Paris’ long-term goals and vision is to become carbon-neutral by 2050.
Environmentally responsible and affordable living space has been created from a former
industrial wasteland, which could become a model for other parts of the city, other regions or
even other countries.

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Other health oriented-goals include the abolition of the ‘numerus clausus’, making it easier to
study complex fields such as medicine, politics, and science, interconnecting all sectors of
medicine, improving the situation of the healthcare systems, hospitals and availability of doctors
in more impoverished areas, as well as the implementation of doctor assistants. ​Loumé, L.
(2018, September 17)

1.2 Vision of the team

As already mentioned in the introduction, the teams’ vision for Paris is for the city to use all its
resources and skills in order to keep the safety, standard of living, equality and functionality to
the highest standard possible. The team would like to combine the current goals of the city with
the sustainable development goals of the World Health Organization as well as their very own
ideas for the best possible future of Paris.
The team believes that Paris needs to come together as a city more and inequality within the
inhabitants is still a big problem. Also, the air as well as noise pollution needs to be stopped, the
city made safer and cleaner and more public and/or green spaces created.

2. ​DNA of the city

The city of Paris, which is the capital of France, is the third biggest city all over Europe with just
over 2.2 million inhabitants and over 12 million in its metropolitan area. It is the most
densely-populated city within the European Union. It is famous for revolution, art, romance, its
cafe-culture and fashion designer boutiques, Disney world and famous historical landmarks
such as the Eiffel Tower, Notre-Dame Cathedral, Louvre museum or the Arc de Triomphe.
Paris history begins in the third century before Christ, as mentioned in the vision of the city, as a
Celtic tribe settlement on the Ile de la Cite. 350 years later, in the year 52 AD, the Romans
conquered the settlement with its inhabitants, the Parisii, and called them, by the 10000 strong
men town, Lutetia. Another 250 years later, in the third century, the Roman empire was coming
to an end, and the Franks took over the city. Over the next 500 years, through the middle-ages,
Paris was attacked by Vikings, who could be paid in silver to leave the growing city alone. The
population now measured 200000 people, which was an enormous-sized city back then.

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King Philippe-Auguste, who ruled from 1180 to 1223, build the Louvre fortress, as well as a
protecting wall around Paris. The port, located along the river Seine, was already an essential
part of the city and economy, in order to export and import, sell, buy and trade with all sorts of
goods. Paris University and other educational institutions became bigger and known in the 12th
century, at the same time as Notre Dame Cathedral was built.

In 1338, the so-called ‘hundred years war’ between England and France broke out and only ten
years later, the plague ‘black death,’ which meant bad times for Paris. The English were able to
capture the city in 1420, but could only hold it for 16 years, before being recaptured by the
French. After the war came to an end and the city started recovering from the devastating
events that left many dead and flourished again, the Reformation swept the country in the 16th
century, and Catholics started persecuting Protestants, killing 2000 of them on St
Bartholomew’s day massacre. It all came to an end with the converting to Catholicism of King
Henry IV in 1593.

Alongside with high buildings, that are known and famous until today, the many cafes,
philosophers and artists started making the city into what it is today, going back as far as the
17th century. Now, a time of revolution would come. During the actual revolution in 1789,
Parisians seized guns and cannons from the Invalides and surrounded the Bastille, prison, and
fortress. The governor had to surrender.
Starting in September 1793 and lasting for nine long months, thousands were killed during the
‘Great Terror.’ Churches were vandalized and closed because of the De-Christianization. After
ending the terror in 1794, Napoleon became the ruler of France in 1799.

During the 19th century, even though Paris proliferated due to the industrial revolution, 20000
people were killed by cholera, and many more lived in deep poverty. In 1848, when Napoleon III
took over power due to another revolution, caused by the discontent of the people, he ruled until
1870 and led to a boom of Paris, economically and socially. The Eiffel-Tower was built and
finally unveiled in 1889 and the Metro network followed shortly after, in 1900.

Avoiding the first world war almost entirely and prospering during the 1920’s and 1930’s, Paris
fell to the Germans in 1940 during the 2nd world war. It only took four years, however, before

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the Parisians started rebelling and taking back their city, with the help of allied forces. ​Lambert,
T. (n.d.)​ With a long, revolutionary history, the city today is the most attractive tourist city all over
Europe, and ranking 5th in the world, when it comes to tourist numbers.

2.1 Economy

The Paris region is the leading economic area all over Europe. With around 640 billion Euros in
2016, it makes up 4,6% of the European GDP, making its economic power as big as the
Netherlands and even more significant than Switzerland. This is not surprising as the city
accounted for 27% of France’s imports and 18% exports in 2015, and is home to 944000
businesses, 11200 of them being foreign companies.
Furthermore, the area holds Europe’s leading business aviation airport, Paris Le Bourget
Airport, its most significant commercial real estate portfolio, with almost 53 million square
meters, as well as Europe’s top business district, La Défense, that includes 3600 businesses
and a total of 180000 employees. It is also the leading research and development cluster in
Europe, employing over 155000 researchers and assistants and spending 18,7 billion Euros in
2013.

Another significant advantage of the Paris region, compared to other business districts and
cities in Europe, is its lower cost. Paris came in before Berlin, London and Frankfurt ranking
seventh in the comparative cost analysis of over 100 cities by the KPMG, a global network of
professional firms providing audit, tax, and advisory services. This shows that office spaces are
2,4 times more expensive in London than in Paris. As a result, Paris is home to 29 of the 500
largest companies listed in the Fortune Global 500.

On top of all that, Paris is expanding its innovative services and centers, marketing them
through innovation-inspired events, like Europe’s leading robotic event ‘Innorobo’ in 2016, and
connecting them through the ‘Grand Paris’ project, that adds four new lines and almost 200
kilometers of new track to the tram network by 2023. The nine different and advanced
innovation clusters include the Advancity Paris-Région project, for a sustainable city and
transport, ASTech Paris-Région, operating in aerospace, Cap Digital Paris-Région, a digital and
multimedia firm, Finance Innovation, a financing company, Medicine Paris-Région, researching

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health and the biomedical field, Mov’eo, a mobility and automotive cluster, Systematic
Paris-Région, information and communication technologies, and finally Cosmetic Valley and
Elastopôle, in the polymers sector.

The educational field is not to be neglected either since France has 21 top-ranked business
schools, more than any other country in the entire world. Three of them, located in Paris, among
the top ten: HEC Paris, Essex Business School, and ESCP Europe. Another record: Paris is the
world’s best city for international students in 2016 and educates 67000 international students in
the Paris region alone.

Finally, the 12000 start-ups, with a third located in Paris itself, are part of the city’s plans to
increase foreign startups within the city to 30% by 2020. ​20 facts and figures that show how
much the Île de France region has to offer. (2016, December 06)
A study made by the “Union of sport and cycle” has shown that the demand for sports supplies
has increased since 2007 and is still growing, at an average rate of 2,9% per year in the last five
years, until today. Most articles sold were shoes, sporting clothes, and bikes plus biking
equipment, equalling an annual turnover of 11,3 billion Euros in 2017 alone. ​Rey, P. (2018,
March 16).

The most prominent sectors of the economy are without doubt tertiary ones like tourism,
financing, insurance, and other services. The Eiffel-Tower, for example, is the most-visited
tourist attraction in the world and is only one out of many historical buildings and tourist
attractions in the city. The secondary sector, which is manufacturing, is crucial to France’s
economy, too. Peugeot and Renault are two of the largest automobile manufacturers in the
world and account for billions of Euros in the GDP. Another excellent example of France’s
secondary sector is energy, with ‘Electricite de France’ (EDF) being the largest utility company
in the world and accounting for 22% of total electricity used by the European Union in 2003.
France’s energy production consists of 78% nuclear energy and 19,5% renewable energy,
which is supposed to grow to 40% by 2030. ​Sawe, B. E. (2017, September 26)

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 2.2 Sport

One of, if not the most popular sport within Parisians, is football. The most practiced sport,
however, is cycling, practical and known through the internationally famous event ‘Tour de
France.’ Tennis, athletics, basketball, handball, horse racing and judo are all very popular as
well. Paris has to offer high-quality facilities within for example the ‘Stade de France,’ ‘Stade
Roland Garros,’ ‘Parc des Princes’ or the ‘AccorHotels Arena,’ and hosts quite a lot of national
as well as international sporting events, including the Tour de France, French Open Tennis
Tournament.

Paris Marathon as well as half-marathon, Paris Judo Grand Slam and the Six Nations Rugby
Championship to name a few. ​Bureau, P. C. (n.d.)​ France has a total of around 4000 fitness
clubs with a total of 5.460.000 members which equals 8,2% of its population. Football is getting
more popular, due to France winning the world championship title in 2018. AS Bondy, a local
football club with 800 members, actually can’t take in any more of the almost 1000 applicants
because they are running out of space. Another, more famous, football club, called Olympic of
Marseille, went from 271 members to 352 in just a few months.​ Olympique Marseille. (2018,
August 22)

According to France’s physical activity factsheet, made by the WHO, 48,4% of all males and
41,4% of all women between 18 and 65 years of age, reach the recommended amount of
physical activity. Older adults, from 65 years up score better with 71% in males and 61% in
females. The lowest scoring ones are children and adolescents between 11 and 14 years old,
where 16% male and only 6,8% female, followed by 15 to 17-year-olds that score 63% in males
and 24% in females. ​World Health Organisation. (2015, September 22).

France did not have its national standard regarding physical activity for a long time and used the
WHO’s, but in 2015 the ‘l’Observatoire national de l’activité physique et de la sédentarité,’ which
translates to the National Observatory for Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour was
founded and took over. The website of the ONAPS states that, all over France, only 43% live up
to the recommended health status and physical activity recommendations, while 24% are at a

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medium level, equalling a 30-minute walk per day, and the last 33% is at an insufficient niveau.
Lessons, D. I. (n.d.)

The Olympic Games 2024 will be a big deal in Paris, with the games and most attractions held
at historical sights and buildings in the city center, for example, beach volleyball close to the
Eiffel Tower. The swimming for the triathlon and swimming marathon will be held in the Seine.
Most stadiums and sporting places being used during the games are already existing, and
visitors will travel to the games mostly by metro, train, and bus, using sustainable energy.
However, north of the city center, in the poor district of ‘Saint-Denis’, approximately 1500 new
houses will be built for the games and sold afterward. ​La Flamme. (n.d.)

2.3 Health

The french healthcare system is considered as one of the best in the world,to be exact it was
ranked on the first place in 2000 as the World Health Organisation compared 191
countries.​World Health Organization's Ranking of the World's Health Systems. (n.d.)​ It is highly
accessible for everyone and provided to every resident of France regardless of age, income or
status, including foreigners after a residence of 3 months. ​A guide to the French healthcare
system. (n.d.). ​ P
​ rivate ​and public hospitals are covert as well as doctors and specialists,
furthermore are 70% to 80% of the doctor visit fees covered ,while costs of major and long-term
patients as well as low income patients are borne.
France obesity rate is amongst the lowest in OECD countries, nonetheless from 2000 until 2016
the amount of obese people increased averagely in OECD countries by 27% whilst france has
risen almost 61%. ​Health policy in France. (n.d.) ​Another adulthood obesity prevalence forecast
constructed by the WHO indicated that in 2020, 19% of men and 22% of women will be obese
​ hauliac, M. (n.d.)
and by 2030, 25% of men and 29% of women will be obese.​ C
As a consequence France uses social media to increase the awareness and brought ​more
traditional communication policies like food labelling and the regulation of marketing to life in
order to decrease problem of obesity. Furthermore in october 2001 the campaign “​Manger
Bouger” ( eat move) ​was brought to existence compound four ad campaigns with the goal to

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reduce obesity, increase physical activity, improve eating habits and reduce the prevalence of
nutritional disorders. As the main tool used for those campaign are descriptions of concrete
steps to take to eat better day by day. ​Malvezin, C. (2015, May 06).

With many health programs France has been over the years more aware of health issues in
their country. Another health goal France is trying to achieve is the ​“smoke free generation”​ and
introduced its National Smoking Reduction Plan (NSRP) running until 2019. In france over 13
million people smoke on a daily basis and almost 73.000 people die through tobacco each year.
Most of the french smokers, around 80%, got into smoking still as minors. The program focuses
on three areas: how to protect young people and prevent their first steps into smoking, in France
the average age of smokers to have their first experience is 14; to make current smokers quit, in
France 31% of the 15 to 75 aged people are ex-smokers and approximately 60% of the current
smokers want to quit; along with decreasing the influence of the tobacco industry, Frances
tobacco industry costs the health industry yearly around 18 billion euros. ​National Smoking
Reduction Plan 2014-2019. (n.d.)

In France also takes every year the Mental Health Week place to promote mental health
awareness for past 27 years. Organized by civil society organizations and mental health
professionals with the purpose to fight ignorance, stigma and exclusion around mental health. In
2016 the sum of mental health disorders in France in general practice was 17.57%, while the
most common disorders were “depression”, with 5.9%, “anxiety disorders” or “state of anxiety”
with 2.3%, and “sleep eruption” with 3.3%. ​Mental Health Disorders in General Practice in
France: A Cross-Sectional Survey. (n.d.)

For more information see Appendix - The complete DNA of Paris “Health”

2.4 Social

Population of Paris Demographic

Paris has a young, dynamic and multicultural population. With over 12 million inhabitants in the
metropolitan area and 2.2 million inhabitants just in the centrum of Paris, it has 18.2% of France

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population. With an average age of 40 years is the population in Paris not just about 1.5 years
younger than in overall France but additionally live longer with a life expectancy up to 80.8 years
as a male and 85.9 years as a female. ​Paris Region Key Figures 2017.​ (n.d.)
As seen in the graph above, Paris elderly population is below 20%, and the birth-death ratio is
on a healthy level, compared to other middle and western European countries.

Immigration
Over 1.6 million people of the Paris population are foreign; this corresponds to 13.1%. As you
can see in the table above, the diversity of its inhabitants' culture is a fusion in the middle of
France and strictly increasing. In the timeframe from 2013 to 2015, the immigration percentage
increased from 7.3% to 20.4% in Paris. ​Paris. (n.d.)
In 2016 France had a permanent inflow of 259.000 immigrants​,(OECD (2018).​
In the table above the nationalities of incoming immigrants can be seen. Of that 13.1 %, foreign
inhabitants are over 46.2% of African origin, 31.9% coming from Europe and 16.7% from Asia.
As described in the table of population by race and ethnicity, is the population majority white
followed by black people.

Quality of Life
The Quality of Life is an individual’s perception of their position in life in the context of the
culture and value systems in which they live and concerning their goals, expectations,
standards, and concerns. It is a broad-ranging concept affected complexly by the person's
physical health, psychological state, personal beliefs, social relationships and their relationship
to salient features of their environment. WHO. (2018, June 20). See Appendix 2. To understand
the factors which play into the Quality of Life better, the Better life index of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) got brought to life in 2011 to measure and
compare the well-being of a countries population internationally. ​OECD Better Life Index. (2018,
September 20).

Numbeo, on the other hand, is the world’s most extensive database about cities and countries
worldwide and provides current and timely information on world living conditions including the
​ eleport cities
cost of living, housing indicators, health care, traffic, crime, and pollution. ​(n.d.) T
are specialized in analyzing and comparing 266 countries in their quality of life to enables users

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and professionals to find suitable cities for everyday life and work, based on their preferences
and with the help of locals. ​About Teleport, Inc. (n.d.).

Housing
Housing prices in Paris variate in different housing districts. Dissimilar from other cities the 20
districts in Paris are laid out in an outwards working spiral and are referred to by their number.
Within the arrondissements are three price ranges, while the city center and districts directly
contiguous to the center are very expensive with an average rent between 1800€ and 2800€ for
a two-bedroom apartment, are the districts surrounding the heart of Paris of moderate pricing
from 1400€ to 2000€ for a two-bedroom apartment. Two districts in Paris are affordable, in the
very south and north of the city with an average price range of 1200€ to 1700€ for a
two-bedroom apartment.
However, Paris also has excellent options for lower budgeted people. Suburbs and towns
located 15 km to 20 km outside of the center offer great locations for low budget with an
average price range of 900€ to 1500€. ​Where to live near Paris. (n.d.).

Cost of living
Paris is in the ‘’Europe top 15 most expensive cities to live in’’ list, at the 14th place. In appendix
8 is a table with examples for different aspects that fall into the cost of living, like transportation,
groceries, services and leisure. As in other famous tourist destinations is Paris a diverse city
that offers a wide field of options for all budgets, from expensive lifestyle, to families and
students on a budget. Entertainment such as attractions and restaurants close by have a more
expensive outlay, while regions more secluded and mostly visited by the native population, are
less expensive.

Safety
Paris is overall considered as a relatively safe city with an safety index of 68%.​How safe is Paris
| Safety Tips & Crime Maps. (n.d.). ​While the overall safety is considered medium, the risk of
being targeted by pickpocket thieves and scammers is higher in central and tourist destinations,
like crowded attractions or in the metro. However since the terrorist attacks in November 2015

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where 130 people got killed, is the tension for travelers and parisians increasing. France has to
deal with a major terrorism threat, especially in Paris as being the capital of France.
Three years after the huge attacks is Paris recovering but still anxious. The bars and cafes as
well as nightclubs are full once again, but the people enjoying the nightlife life with the
awareness that this could happen again. Metros and trains are regularly delayed through
suspicious bags or packages. Police presence increased in tourist destinations and metro
stations to prevent violence along with crime and give inhabitants a feeling of safety. ​What
happened in France after the Paris terror attacks. (2016, November 11).
The Paris Police Prefecture distributes a leaflet entitled "Paris in Complete Safety" that gives
practical advice and valuable phone numbers for visitors. In a crisis, dialing 17 will connect the
caller to the police.​ ​https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=15642

Education

Education in Paris is considered high with Europe's largest pool of students and Ph.D.
candidates. With 30 international schools and 124 international programs are 16 different
languages leading to the “international option” of France’s high school
graduation exam (OIB).

Paris is a highly educated region with many graduates, 38.7% of the adult population has a
bachelor degree and every year participating students in specialized schools like the Gobelins,
best animation school worldwide, or the Ecole 42, best coding school worldwide. Frances
school system has a worldwide reputation with business schools and management training
programs. In 2013 over 19.900 students achieved their Ph.D. degree, 213.200 students a
Bachelor degree and 144.600 a Masters degree. ​Paris Region Key Figures 2017. (n.d.)

The National education is supporting families with a moderate income and provides a
guaranteed revenue, depending on how old the children are. Children from 6-10 years are
supported with 363 €, 11 to 1-year-old children 383,03€ and families from 15 to 18-year-old
students get support up to 396,29€. Secondary school scholarships are based on the income
and number of dependent children, in 2014 the monthly support was 84 to 357 euros, paid in

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three installments. Adaptation scholarships are available for students with learning difficulties in
primary or secondary school.

Employment
Parisians have a high employment rate, just around 10.4% are unemployed. In the graph in
appendix 11 is the district unemployment rate in percentage pictured, next to it is the annual
salary revenue delineated. Comparing one to each other it can be seen, that the parts where the
unemployment rate is over 14%, also the annual salary is not as high as in the rest of Paris. An
average annual households income lays around 36,085 Euros, that is about 60% more than the
national average, furthermore do people who live in the West make more money than other
parts of Paris.

Environmental quality
The environmental quality can be defined as ‘level and competition of the stream of all
environmental services, except the waste receptor services​. ​Environmental Quality: Meaning
and Forms. (2016, June 28).​ ​ Those services include green spaces, air, water and further.
The environmental quality in Paris is in the lower average compared to other countries. 463
parks and gardens cover 27% of Paris with green spaces,(Appendix 12) ​Statistics About Paris,
Parisians and Tourists. (n.d.).
The air pollution as described in the graph in appendix 12 is with 79 considered moderate, the
main sources of pollution in Paris are transport, heating and industry. Between them is the
transportation with cars, delivery vehicles and trucks the biggest problem with being responsible
for 53% of the nitrogen oxides emissions in Paris. See appendix 13 to understand how the
Nitrogen dioxide emission looks throughout a day in Paris.
The water quality in Paris is good and tap water safe to drink, however it contains a very high
amount of lime. Most parisians buy bottled water or refill their bottles in one of the natural water
fountains in the city, with numerous filter options available to reduce the limestone content. ​Life
in Paris: Air and Water Quality. (2018, June 21).

3. ​Scenario planning process

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In the scenario planning process, the team had to figure out their key drivers. The two key
drivers are the ones with the highest impact and uncertainty in the diagram above: Economy
and segregation. In this case it was hard to choose between tourism and segregation as they
were pretty close, so the team decided to use economy from a political point of view, in order to
bring them together.

3.1 Issues and the drivers causing it

Drivers, for example, technology, economy, tourism, and segregation, are very powerful and
influence most or even all other sectors, thanks to them being interconnected. They cause
positive and negative results, issues being the negative ones.
Tourism, for example, has the positive effect of improving the economy, giving people jobs and
branding the city. The adverse effects on the other side are prices going up in touristy areas,
driving the poor out of the center and into the less advantaged suburbs further out of the city
center.

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Technology improves many services, makes tasks and life more comfortable, cheaper and
faster, but it is also responsible for people connecting less face-to-face due to social media or
losing their jobs to machines and robots. Pollution is a big issue Paris has, the city itself is
polluted with trash, and the air quality is decreasing due to increasing traffic and industry. The
noise pollution is also worth mentioning, as it stresses people are living close to highways,
airports and so forth and decreases the quality of life.
Another big problem Paris has is the segregation in the city. The city is growing year by year;
overpopulation is starting to overstrain essential services, public transport systems, roads and
so on and the gap between the rich and poor is widening.

3.2 Four Plausible Scenarios

Key drivers: Segregation - Economy

Segregation < -- > Integration (x-axis)

Economy (High GDP) < -- > Economy (Low GDP) (y-axis)

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 4. ​Scenarios

The following scenarios are the result of setting segregation on the x-axis of the diagram and
economy on the y-axis. The scenario on the top left is a mix of segregation and a strong
economy with a high GDP, the one on the top right is integration paired with strong economy
with a high GDP, and on the lower end there are the two parts of the scenario with a weak
economy and a low GDP, each paired with segregation on the left and integration on the right.
In the four scenarios below, short-, middle-, and long term expectations, impacts, challenges
and alternatives for the future until 2050 are explained in greater detail.

4.1 Scenario A: Low Political economy Vs. Segregation until 2040

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2020, France steps out of the European Union after the election of its new president, Marine Le
Pen.

She establishes France’s old currency “Le Franc” which makes France the black sheep of all
current markets due to the ablation of the EU rules especially concerning the import/export
industry.
Indeed, taxes have significantly increased because of the new protectionism introduced. The
foreigner companies aren’t investing any more, and France tries to sustain itself even though
riots are taking over the streets of Paris and crimes are more severe and remain unpunished
due to the lack of policemen even though it increased, the number of strikers is still higher
because the population is trying to survive the massive banishment and the economic failures.

2022, the new rules regarding immigration have just been publicly released, and all non-french
people have to leave the country other they will be cast out by force.
Even for non-native French, the situation is getting worse because of the waves of racist acts.
The streets become gang territories aggravating the pollution and degrading the infrastructures
and nature.
The maladjustment of the real estate prices causes gentrification in the city center because of
the rich native French people coming from the “Province” that need jobs, and since many
people left, the housing prices are attractive to them.

2024, the Olympic games happened to be canceled due to the critical status of Paris both on
economic and the population reasons.
Indeed, most of the visitors that wanted to come at that time canceled their tickets and
therefore, the Olympic games of 2024 were the most significant loss in the history of the event.

2025, The Banque de France estimates the GDP that was already above 100% before her
election, and now it’s even getting higher which leads to inflation especially with the new
currency dropping and changing the whole system, interests rates are increasing, power
purchase lowers, tourism’s getting more and more complicated due to the new policies and the
exit of the Schengen zone and all those elements lead to an economic crisis.

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2028, the quality of life as a whole is being threatened by the pollution outgoing as well since
the financial situation isn’t improving and the people are losing their belongings, nobody cares
about throwing the garbage in cans, but even if they would, dustmen aren’t paid any more,
therefore they stopped working, and the whole city has become polluted, and this is a real threat
to people’s living expectancy.

2030, Segregation has taken upon, and Paris is not safe anymore. Money is more and rarer,
only native people are allowed in the city center with means that every other people moved out,
and the riots caused significant damages to Paris’s main buildings, and streets, police officers
do not get paid which leaves Paris defenseless.

2040, Paris’s bankrupted, all the economy has been wiped out, every citizen is leaving the city
because Hunger is upon the city, there is no more supply chain towards the town, and the city
cannot sustain itself.

4.2 Scenario B: High Political-economy & Integration until 2050

2020: France becomes more and more powerful and vital due to the election of its new leaders,
the committee AQO. This new committee has changed many things already since their election;
they are in charge of the whole capital city and about ⅔ of the national territory. Their first
changes regarding access to health and infrastructures helped a lot to reduce the inequalities
between the ethnicities.
They believe immigration is a massive opportunity for growth and success. Indeed they
improved the already existing “Pôle Emploi, the job finder organization” because, before those
improvements, it was slow and sometimes, this organization could not even work due to the
number of incoming people.

2025: The committee works so well that within five years, France has become self-sustainable
regarding food, health, new technologies and so on. As wealthy as it is, they gave money to
developing countries to help eradicate hunger. France has not been that implicated in the UN

19
Goals in ages; the unemployment rate has been halved, poverty, reduced to 3% having less
than the minimum wage within Paris.

2030; The Justice has less and fewer cases to take care of since the whole city is at peace, the
integration of everyone within the town has made a considerable change concerning the look
people have on them. Indeed, the security and well-being have been highly increased, the
number of Policemen has been cut by half by the government and the AQO.

2035; Nature is not as respected in other countries as in France, which creates frictions
between the nations, although climate change has not been that crucial in the past years.
The AQO allowed only the triple-A nature care rated cars into the city center of Paris to highly
decrease the air pollution and hired a lot more of dustmen to clean up the city.
The most significant proof of success was that roughly 15.000 of Paris inhabitant, migrants &
natives, came to help the dustmen to accelerate the cleaning and the come back to Paris into
one of the most respectful & healthy city.

2050; France steps up on the podium of the first economic power as well as the country with its
capital center as first regarding well-being & nature care.
Other countries including America have noticed the changes and are trying to improve their own
country using the french AQO model of Health.

4.3 Scenario C: High Economy and high Segregation

2020: Paris is intensively preparing the Olympic Games in 2024, the economy is stable and
grew in the last years averagely around 0.7%.

2025: The Olympic Games were a huge success, Paris grew in the interest of international
businessman who sees potential in the opening and moving their businesses.
The economy is growing dramatically. The circular economy is increasing to address the rising
threats of climate change, which creates over 100.000 new jobs in the green economy.
More tourists than ever stream into the city, admiring Paris attractions and the newly build sports
facilities. In order of the Games, more public green spaces were created, and the transportation

20
improved. Private housing is deregulated, and foreign investors devote real-estates, letting the
housing prices drastically increase to build priority neighborhoods. People who used to live in
the city center start moving to the suburbs of Paris. Small riots about the housing situation start
to flare up.

2030: Paris banned all petrol-fuelled cars from the city and ensured sustainable management of
the natural ecosystem by enhancing landscapes and bringing nature to the city. Only the upper
society and wealthy investors live in the city center of Paris, all other inhabitants are living now
outside of Paris and only come for work into the centrum, just a few could remain in their houses
due to ownership or sub-renting their renovated accommodations to tourists. The suburbs
density is increasing, and poverty is rising dramatically. Average income inhabitants replace
people with a low income who used to live in the houses of the suburbs of Paris, rent is
increasing, and lots of people have to move to smaller flats or even further outside. Segregation
along race and class lines is expanding, the need for jobs is high, unemployed people have it
even harder to find a job due to the rising competition. The problem of education in the
banlieues is rising while in the city center high schools and universities are booming with
international students. The economy is growing within the heart of Paris with more and more
small businesses opening and startups with an international connection, increasing the salary
and GDP of Paris, making the wealthy inhabitants much more productive.

2040: Paris city center is in development, more green spaces are established, the sale of petrol
and diesel cars is banned, and real estates build with innovations. First border controls around
the city center were introduced to reduce the number of beggars during the day on tourist
destinations and overall increase the feeling of safety for the inhabitants. Through Paris green
development there is an increased interest of people all around the world, tourist numbers are
increasing, new and high modern real estates are built and sold as vacation apartments or for
rent as hotel rooms. The atmosphere is tensing in the outside of Paris, anger and dissatisfaction
spreads

2050: Paris completely developed into a smart city and achieved its goals to reducing 75% of
the greenhouse gas emissions, set in 2015. A total of 8 mixed towers got to build in the heart of
the city, combined with plants and trees, to repatriate the nature and integrate the rules of bio

21
climate in renewable and recyclable energy in order to depollute and keep the air quality and
sustainability of Paris high.

It belongs to the top 10 smart cities worldwide and attracts many tourists and sets great
examples for other cities. Paris is furthermore completely truncated from its suburbs. Strict
border controls check each person coming in or out of Paris to keep the security for the rich
population up. a new suburb circle is surrounding Paris, average income inhabitants live close
and around Paris and differentiate the very poor from the center. The suburbs drown in the
trash, the poverty rate is high as never seen and the situation is reminiscent of the banlieues
crisis in 2005, where riots took over, and cars, houses, and busses were being torched. Within
the city center, those riots and protests cannot be sensed, it is a very quiet and flowing
atmosphere.

4.4 Scenario D: Bad Economy and Integration.

2020 France has a growing public debt thanks to France's budget deficit. Immigrants are
successfully being integrated into the Paris society due to different integration programs, for
example, the innovative food festival. Another problem coming in Paris is that there aren’t
enough places to live in because of the overpopulation of the city. The government decides to
make the integration of immigrants a priority and increases their budget deficit to do so. Macron
is reelected in 2021.

2025 Thanks to the spending on the Olympic games the France budget deficit has grown over
5% and the public debt has gotten worse, so the government has made massive cuts on all
funds. This causes foreign enterprises to leave the city and smaller businesses to close which
makes that many people lose their jobs. Social cohesion grows even more, and all the
inhabitants of Paris help each other to find jobs and housing.

2030 The economic crisis is getting worse, and that causes many revolts.The revolts are made
an participated in by all of the Paris population together they rise against the French
government because the people living in Paris cannot usually live due to having to little finance
to support themselves. The image of Paris is going down by all the polemic going in Paris of all

22
revolts. That causes just newly chosen government/president to resign and leads to early
reflections. The nationalistic party gets elected. France is not helping the EU with the economy,
so they lose the image they had as one of the strongest pillars of the EU.

2040 France steps out of the European Union. The Paris economic district has barely any
international companies, and local businesses are growing. The economic crisis is still present,
but people have learned to live with it. Parisians support each other in every way and try to have
useful lives altogether.

2050 France tries to get back into the EU again which causes revolts in Paris because people
are now used to living and surviving together with the people surrounding them.

​5. Afterword

During the first block of the European Vital Cities course, the team worked together quite well,
split up tasks and distributed them depending on each group members strengths and
weaknesses. The communication and weekly meetings to discuss progress however were
lacking from time to time, and work that still needed to be done was left to be done later
sometimes or took place during regular classes. During the first block the team learned not to
postpone research for too long, structure work better and lose distractions to be able to get on
with the necessary tasks sooner.
During the first block the team learned that working together with the group in its entirety is
more effective than half of the team working from home. Also with the whole team together we
were more motivated to work.
In the second block, the team wants and needs to work on its communication, meet up more
often and regularly and to be present in lectures as a whole group, in order to do quality work as
often as possible. More work was done outside of the scheduled hours for the project.

6. ​References:

23
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28
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29
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7. ​Appendix

The complete DNA of Paris “Health”

Healthcare system France

30
The French healthcare system is low waiting time, a good abundance of doctors, considered as
one of the best healthcare systems in the world, to be exact, it was ranked on the first place in
2000 as the World Health Organisation compared 191 countries. This was the first and for now
the last comparison of the world's healthcare systems, the ​World Health Organization's Ranking
of the World's Health Systems. (n.d.)​ However, still today France remains under the as top
considered healthcare systems with the highest quality medical services in the world. It is highly
accessible for everyone, provided to every resident in France regardless of age, income or
status. Since 2016 it is possible for foreigners through the healthcare system for foreigners
PUMA (Protection Universelle Maladie) to have access to the French healthcare after three
months of residence, irrelevant of their working status. ​A guide to the French healthcare system.
(n.d.).
Public and private hospitals, doctors and medical specialists are covert, and the state covers a
majority of the costs through a public healthcare scheme. It is compulsory to register with a
health insurer and doctor, furthermore got in 2018 a new phone line introduced to find the
closest available emergency doctors for treatment, 70%-80% of those doctor visit fees are
covered and paid by the government, while costs from primary and long-term, along with
low-income patients will be borne. With an EU healthcare expenditure average percentage of
3.5% in 2015, Domestic general government health expenditure as a percentage of GDP.
(2018, February 22) France spends more than most EU countries with 11.5% of the GDP on
public health and has the lowest heart disease mortality in Europe. With being the first country
in 1988 where the Cardiovascular disease was no longer the most significant cause of death
France placed first in the EURO HEART INDEX 2016. ​Björnberg, P. (2018, January 29)
Nevertheless are french doctors known for tending to medicalize many conditions and giving out
lots of drugs.
The government’s plans for the future of health in Paris includes to abolish the “numerus
clausus” due to too many failures in the famous entrance tests “PACES” to become a doctor,
furthermore to implement over 400 doctors in needing districts funded by the government to
also to prevent closing hospitals due to not highly enough trained personnel and have top
priority to stay open to public. Another vision is to interconnect all medicine sectors to increase
the communication, effectiveness of examinations and the ability of immediate help in
emergencies. ​Loumé, L. (2018, September 17)

Obesity

31
More than one out of two adults and approximately one out of six children are overweight or
obese in OECD countries ​Obesity Update 2017. (n.d.)​, with 40% of the adults being obese
(overweight included), which is equivalent with one out of ten adults, France obesity rate is
among the lowest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries
although it is strictly increasing. Organization for economic cooperation and development.
(2008, February/March)The National Institute of Health and Medical Research reported nearly
16 percent of the adult population adipose in 2016 while it was just 6 percent in 1980.
Associated Press. (2017, December 16).
From 2000 until 2016 the number of obese people increased averagely in OECD countries by
27% while France has risen almost 61%. Health policy in France. (n.d.) Projections indicate that
overweight rates will increase by a further 10% within ten years, while the obesity rate for
children has not risen in 20 years, although it was predicted to increase. Accompanying with
studies that have shown a certain trend of children being three times more likely to be
overweight or obese themselves if growing up within a family structure of obese individuals.
Obesity and the Economics of Prevention. (n.d.) Another adulthood obesity prevalence forecast
constructed by the WHO indicated that in 2020, 19% of men and 22% of women would be
obese and by 2030, 25% of men and 29% of women will be obese. ​Chauliac, M. (n.d.)
As a consequence, France uses along with other OECD countries social media and new
technologies, revised arrangements for more traditional communication policies like food
labeling and the regulation of marketing in order to decrease the problem of obesity.
Furthermore, taxation policies were implemented in order to increase the price of potentially
unhealthy products, high salt foods, sugar, fat and sugary drinks. In October 2001 the campaign
“Manger Bouger” ( eat move) was brought to life compound four ad campaigns with the goal to
reduce obesity, increase physical activity, improve eating habits and reduce the prevalence of
nutritional disorders.
The first ad campaign was launched in October 2001, educating in the benefits of eating five
portions of fruits and veggies a day, the second ad campaign followed in February 2004,
encouraging 30 minutes of rapid walking or similar activity per day, taking the stairs instead of
taking the elevator and the usage of public transportation instead of the car. The Ministry of
Health and the French National Institute for Health Prevention and Education included the
limitation of consumption salty, sugary and fatty products in 2005. With short informational
movies and slogans such as “try to avoid overeating fatty, salty and sugary food”- written on
processed food packages. June 2008 was the last campaign launched combining two

32
messages, to eat five portions of fruit and vegetables and including to eat a starch every meal to
limit consumption of salty and fatty meals. The primary tool used for those campaigns are
descriptions of concrete steps to take to eat better day by day. ​Malvezin, C. (2015, May 06).
Being thin in Paris is still a persisting ideal that has to achieve and shows the other trend
represented in the high fashion city. In 2017 a campaign launched driven to counter sizeism and
discrimination against fat people “Fatphobia, stop! Taking action together”. Paris
anti-discrimination chief Helene Bidard declared: “We see fat people as ugly and even stupid,
lacking hygiene and in bad health.”
With the hope to put a new standard for the fashion industry, French luxury brands stopped
hiring excessively thin models; a new law got introduced which requires a doctor's note in which
the health of the model is certified before it can get hired as well as an advertisers note if photos
are retouched. ​Associated Press. (2017, December 16).
Offenders face a fee up to 81,000€ and six months of jail. Manfred, T. (2015, December 18).
Despite everything being in France still estimated 30,000 to 40,000 people suffering from
anorexia. ​Bernstein, L., & Brown, C. (2015, March 19).

Health awareness
With many health programs, France has been over the years more aware of health issues in
their country. Another health goal France is trying to achieve is the “smoke-free generation” and
introduced its National Smoking Reduction Plan (NSRP) running until 2019. In France, over 13
million people smoke on a daily basis, and almost 73.000 people die through tobacco each
year. Most of the French smokers, around 80%, got into smoking still as minors. The program
focuses on three areas: how to protect young people and prevent their first steps into smoking,
in France the average age of smokers to have their first experience is 14; to make current
smokers quit, in France 31% of the 15 to 75 aged people are ex-smokers and approximately
60% of the current smokers want to quit; along with decreasing the influence of the tobacco
industry, Frances tobacco industry costs the health industry yearly around 18 billion euros.
National Smoking Reduction Plan 2014-2019. (n.d.)
The program was funded by the government with over 32 million euros in 2016 and launched
two new campaigns, an awareness campaign over the impact of smoking, as well as a
“smoke-free month” encouraging the French population to stop smoking for 30 days as a social
experiment. “France is now a model of the anti-smoking campaign in Europe: we are not

33
resigning ourselves to the scourge,” stated Marisol Touraine, minister of social and health in
2017. ​France adopts strict new anti-smoking measures. (n.d.).
In France also takes every year the Mental Health Week place to promote mental health
awareness for the past 27 years. Organized by civil society organizations and mental health
professionals with the purpose to fight ignorance, stigma, and exclusion around mental health.
With every year the movement got greater and with now over 23 organizational partners and
over thousands of volunteers helping with the execution, more than 1300 events organized
across France during the Mental Health Weeks in 2016, to promote mental health in education,
employment, communities and other essential settings in everyday life. In 2016 the sum of
mental health disorders in France in general practice was 17.57%, while the most common
disorders were “depression,” with 5.9%, “anxiety disorders” or “state of anxiety” with 2.3%, and
“sleep eruption” with 3.3%. ​Mental Health Disorders in General Practice in France: A
Cross-Sectional Survey. (n.d.)

7.1 Evidence

Appendix 1:
Sustainable
Development
Goals by the
WHO

34
Appendix 2
Quality of life

Numbeo. (2018,
July 30)

Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.)

I. van Kamp et
al. / Landscape
and Urban
Planning 65
(2003) 5–18

35
Appendix 3

Demographics

​ aris Region
P
Key Figures
2017. (n.d.)

Appendix 4
Immigration

​ aris Region
P
Key Figures
2017. (n.d.)

36
 ​Appendix 5
Population by
race/ethnicity
Population by
Race/Ethnicity.
(n.d.)

Appendix 6
Housing
Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.)

Appendix 7
Paris districts

Arrondissement
(Paris). (2018,
March 14)

Appendix 8
Costs of living
37
Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.).

Cost of Living.
(n.d.)

Appendix 9
Safety

Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.).

How safe is
Paris | Safety
Tips & Crime
Maps. (n.d.).

38
Appendix 10
Education

Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.).

39
Appendix 11
employment

ZipParis. (n.d.)

Annual salary

Appendix 12
Environmental
quality

Industrial areas

Green spaces

40
The World Air
Quality Index
project. (n.d.).

Quality of life in
Paris, France.
(n.d.).

41
 Appendix 13
daily nitrogen
dioxide emission
https://www.econ
omist.com/graphi
c-detail/2016/08/
01/comparing-ur
ban-air-pollution

7.2 Group and Peer assessment:

https://www.docdroid.net/zTqa8ON/group-and-self-evaluation-vital-cities.pdf

42