ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT

FOR THE WEEK OF:

OCTOBER 11, 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Fresh rally in corn prices to 2-year the recent strength of ethanol prices relative to 1. Commentary

high further boosts profit risks for gasoline prices. 2 Top Ethanol News
4. Volume and Open Interest
ethanol producers -- Ethanol prices in the
5. Ethanol Futures & Forwards
past three months have now rallied by a total of Ethanol/Gasoline – November gasoline
8. Ethanol (Platts) Swaps
50%, just slightly below the overall 54% rally futures prices last week extended the previous
10. Rotterdam Ethanol
in corn prices. The ability of ethanol prices week’s 7.5% rally to post a new 5-month high
11. Distillers Dried Grains
to keep pace with the corn rally has preserved and close 6.51 cents higher (+3.1%) at $2.1512
12. Ethanol vs Gasoline
most of the profit margin for corn-based etha- per gallon. Gasoline prices were boosted by 13. Ethanol vs Corn
nol producers. This contrasts with the situa- the weak dollar and by last week’s 1.6% rally 14. Ethanol vs Sugar
tion in late-2007 and early-2008 when ethanol in the S&P 500 to a new 5-month high, which 15. Rotterdam Biodiesel
prices could not keep pace with the corn rally highlighted the general optimism about the 18. Ethanol Industry Data
and there were widespread bankruptcies in the medium-term economic outlook. Ethanol 19. Contract & Contact Info
ethanol industry. While ethanol prices have prices last week soared by 18.6% versus the
so far kept up with corn prices, the current 3.1% rally in gasoline prices, meaning ethanol
Last
situation is still risky for ethanol producers again became more expensive than gasoline Weekly
Ethanol Closes Friday
Change
last week by 3.3 cents, although ethanol is still Close
given the possibility that ethanol prices could
decouple from corn prices and hurt ethanol cheaper by 42 cents including the 45-cent Ethanol & DDG Futures
producer profit margins. ethanol tax credit. CBOT Ethanol
$2.184 +$0.342
Future (X10)
CBOT Ethanol
Ethanol inventories continue to de- Ethanol/Corn – December corn futures $2.1200 +$0.2880
Forward (X10)
cline -- Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA report prices last Friday closed limit-up by 30 cents
NY Physical
showed that U.S. ethanol inventories fell by an- at a new 2-year high due to the USDA report, $2.2700 +$0.3500
Ethanol (X10)
other 1.5% to a 10-month low of 16.898 million prompting a close for the week of up 62.5 cents Chicago (Platts)
$2.1600 +$0.3050
barrels. Inventories have steadily declined in (+13.4%) at $5.2825 per bushel. Corn prices Swap Future (X10)
the past three months and are down by 15.2% have now rallied by a total of 54% in the space NY (Platts) Swap
$2.2700 +$0.3500
from the July 2 record high of 19.921 million of just three months because of very strong Future (X10)

barrels. U.S. ethanol production rose by 4.6% demand and a smaller-than-expected crop for Rotterdam Platts
$630 unch
T1 Ethanol (X10)
in the latest week to 863,000 bpd, which was this summer. The USDA last Friday surprised
Rotterdam Platts
just 1.4% below the record high of 875,000 bpd the market with a 3.8% cut in the size of the T2 Ethanol (X10)
€569 -€25
posted in early September. However, strong corn crop, producing a 19% cut in the ending-
demand for ethanol is more than absorbing the stocks estimate to 902 million bushels. The DDG Future (Z10) $110.8 unch

near-record production level and inventories stocks/use ratio fell to 6.7% from 8.3%, a 14- Nymex Biodiesel Futures
are still falling, a bullish sign for ethanol prices. year low and the tightest level since 1996/97.
Nymex RME
The Dec ethanol-corn crush margin rose by 6.5 Biodiesel (X10)
$1188 +$35
Ethanol Market Action - November CBOT cents to 22.3 cents/gallon. Including DDG, the Nymex FAME
Sep corn for ethanol crush margin rose by 6.5 $1099 +$15
Ethanol futures prices last Friday soared by Biodiesel (X10)
19.6 cents (+9.9%) to a new 2-year high and cents to 58.5 cents/gallon. Spreads (cents per gallon)
finished the week up 34.2 cents at $2.184 per
Ethanol Calendar Ethanol-Gasoline
3.3¢ 27.7¢
gallon. Ethanol prices last week rallied on (X10)
• Oct 14: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
the 13.4% rally in corn prices, the 3.1% rally Ethanol - Corn
• Mid-Oct: EPA’s E15 decision expected for 23.3¢ +6.5¢
in gasoline prices, and the bullish weekly EIA 2007+ model vehicles (early-Dec decision Margin (Z10)
ethanol inventory report, which indicated expected for 2001-06 models) Ethanol - Corn +
58.5¢ +6.5¢
continued strong demand for ethanol despite DDG Margin(Z10)
• Oct 28: EIA July Monthly Ethanol Report
• Nov 9: USDA WASDE Crop Supply-Demand 1
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT
Top Weekly Ethanol News
Zichal: White House supports VEETC extension
Oct 4 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The extension of the
Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit came up at the annual
gathering of the Renewable Fuels Association, held Sept. 30....
RFA stresses urgency of VEETC extension
Oct 4 - Brownfield Ag News - Members of the Renewable Fuels
Association lobbied on Capitol Hill last week for an extension
of the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit. RFA president Bob
Dinneen says they reinforced the urgency of finding a vehicle to
get the ethanol tax incentive extended when Congress returns in
November....
E15 scenarios
Oct 5 - RFA - Sometime in the coming days, the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to announce a partial waiver
decision allowing the use of E15 in light duty vehicles with a model
year (MY) of 2007 or newer. It is widely believed that this decision
will be followed by another announcement this winter that would
extend the E15 allowance to MY2001 and newer vehicles....
Change in control? What’s next in Washington?
Oct 6 - Biofuels Digest - There has been increasing speculation
about a change in control in the US Congress from the Democratic
Party to the Republicans. Speculation has especially focused on the
possibility that a change in control would occur in the House of
Representatives....
U.S. ethanol shoots up on surprise corn shortfall
Oct 8 - Reuters - U.S. ethanol prices shot higher on Friday after
a government report forecast a surprising shortfall in corn yields,
sending grain prices surging. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
forecast a surprisingly small 12.664 billion-bushel U.S. corn crop
this year -- 4 percent smaller than the record forecast a month ago
-- and the tightest corn supply in 15 years. Ethanol futures closed up
9.9 percent at $2.185 per gallon as traders bet the higher corn price
could cut into ethanol output...
OCTOBER 11, 2010
Corn-crop estimate cut 3.8% by U.S. agency as
adverse weather trims yields
Oct 8 - Bloomberg - The U.S. corn crop will be 3.8 percent smaller
than forecast a month ago, the government said, after flooding
in June and hot, dry weather in August cut Midwest yields.
Production will total 12.664 billion bushels, down from 13.16
billion projected a month ago and less than last year’s record 13.11
billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report....
Ethanol key to short-term outlook
Oct 4 - National Journal Energy - Right now and in the immediate
future, there is only one fuel that can replace oil, and that fuel
is ethanol. For the years ahead, there are many exciting ideas
for alternative fuels, environmentally-friendly vehicles, and the
technologies that will make them possible. The question is: How
can we get there from here? ...
2015: The future of biofuels and biomaterials
Oct 8 - Reuters - Production of biomaterials will grow faster
than biofuels and increasing biofuel capacity is highly reliant
on technology from innovative startups. These are some of the
conclusions in a report just issued by Lux Research on the biofuel
and biomaterial markets....
Seaweed: A new wave of investment in macro-algae
Oct 4 - Biofuels Digest - An emerging rise in investment in from
petrochemical majors and governments in Asia, Europe and the
Americas aims at extracting sugars from seaweed for ethanol,
advanced biofuels, drop-in fuels, biochemicals and biopolymers....
Growth of biofuel industry hurt by GMO regulations,
say experts
Oct 1 - Science Daily - Faster development of the promising
field of cellulosic biofuels -- the renewable energy produced from
grasses and trees -- is being significantly hampered by a “deep and
thorny regulatory thicket” that makes almost impossible the use of
advanced gene modification methods, researchers say....
TOP ETHANOL NEWS CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE 
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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT
Top Weekly Ethanol News (continued)
U.S. military orders less dependence on fossil fuels
Oct 4 - NY Times - With insurgents increasingly attacking the
American fuel supply convoys that lumber across the Khyber Pass
into Afghanistan, the military is pushing aggressively to develop,
test and deploy renewable energy to decrease its need to transport
fossil fuels....
‘Energy beet crop grown here is called a success
Oct 5 - Lancaster Online - The results are in: Special sugar
beets can be grown in and around Lancaster County to produce
the alternative fuel ethanol. What’s more, farmers in the region
should be eager to grow a crop that will be more valuable than
such traditional crops as corn and tobacco. So said Penn State
researchers who recently grew and tested an experimental
“energy beet” here and in State College. The beets’ solid report
card boosts prospect for a $93 million ethanol plant proposed for
Rapho Township. It would be fueled by energy beets grown on an
estimated 15,000 acres. Paul Wheaton of East Hempfield Township,
co-owner of Maibach LLC, said he’d like to break ground for the
project in the spring.But he said he is awaiting a court decision on
his appeal of one requirement that Rapho supervisors placed on the
project in August 2009....
Domestic ethanol industry approaching ‘feed wall’
Oct 7 - Feedstuffs - On the ethanol fuel side, the industry has heard
much about the blending wall. Just as the fuel side approaches the
maximum amount of blending, the use of distillers grains has a
maximum use amount domestically, according to industry leaders
speaking at the 2010 Export Exchange in Chicago, Ill. Bob Dinneen,
president and chief executive officer of the Renewable Fuels Assn.,
said the “feed wall” level is at 35 to 45 million metric tons of
distillers grains and the industry is “rapidly approaching the low
end” of that level....
Corn ethanol’s stock rises, as its stocks rise
Oct 8 - Biofuels Digest - Conventional wisdom holds that first-
generation ethanol is dead as a door-nail in terms of attracting
viable investment, but events in recent months suggest that the
conventional wisdom is off by some margin....
Ford joins in researching algae for vehicle fuel
Oct 2 - USA Today - For some time, we’ve been hearing about a lot
of interest among scientists in the prospect of harvest algae to run
vehicles. The big attraction: it’s green, literally, and it grows fast.
Now Ford is getting on board....
OCTOBER 11, 2010
S.D. producers receive fines for CAA violations
Oct 4 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - On Sept. 31, the U.S. EPA
and the U.S. Department of Justice settled disputes with two of Poet
LLC’s South Dakota facilities as well as Dakota Ethanol LLC over
claims that the plants had violated portions of the Clean Air Act.
The 79 MMgy Poet plant at Big Stone City, the 53 MMgy Poet plant
at Groton, and the 48 MMgy Dakota Ethanol plant near Wentworth
were charged with violations associated with emissions and testing
requirements for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In consent
decrees signed in a South Dakota district court, the facilities agreed
to pay the penalties associated with the claims, but did not admit to
the allegations....
Atlanta terminal expands ethanol capabilities
Oct 8 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Motiva Enterprises LLC,
a refining, distribution and retail joint venture between Shell
Oil Co. and Saudi Refining Inc., has expanded its Doraville, Ga.,
terminal to allow for delivery of Norfolk Southern Corp. unit trains
transporting Midwest ethanol. Motiva said the expansion will
enable an 80-car unit train to be off-loaded and returned to the
supplier intact and will better serve ethanol producers supplying
the Southeast market....
BlueFire Renewables signs fixed-price EPC contract
on heels of feedstock, offtake deals
Oct 5 - Biofuels Digest - In California, BlueFire Renewables
announced that it has finalized and signed an Engineering,
Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract for its cellulosic
ethanol project in Fulton, MS. The facility will be engineered and
built by Wanzek Construction, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary
of MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) , for a fixed price of $296 million which
includes an approximately $100 million biomass power plant as
part of the facility....
Cosan-Shell joint venture peaks Dutch Minister’s
interest in Brazil
Oct 7 - UNICA - Global repercussions of the biggest transaction
in the history of Brazil´s sugar-energy industry, the $12 billion
joint venture between the Cosan group and Royal Dutch Shell
announced in February and confirmed in August of this year, were
one of the factors that convinced Dutch Economic Affairs Minister
Maria van der Hoeven to head for Brazil....
Brazil to generate electricity from ethanol
Oct 8 - Domestic Fuel - According to the Associated Press, General
Electric has announced that it has received a contract from Brazil
state-owned energy company Petrobras to convert a second gas
turbine to burn sugarcane-based ethanol. The turbine is at a power
plant serving the city of Juiz de Fora, northwest of Rio de Janeiro....
3
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swaps - Monthly Volume & Open Interest
90,000

80,000
Volume
70,000
Open Interest
60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
2007 2008 2009 2010

CBOT Ethanol Futures - Monthly Volume & Open Interest

20,000
18,000
Volume
16,000
Open Interest
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
4
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol and Forward Month Swap Futures - Closing Prices

Closes for: Friday October 8
CBOT Ethanol Futures
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
ZEX10 2.184 +0.196 2.185 2.150 182 824
ZEZ10 2.120 +0.180 2.122 2.103 166 2070
ZEF11 2.113 +0.180 2.120 2.095 87 1212
ZEG11 2.110 +0.176 2.110 2.100 36 892
ZEH11 2.115 +0.175 2.120 2.110 10 817
ZEJ11 2.127 +0.173 2.127 2.115 33 715
ZEK11 2.125 +0.162 2.128 2.115 13 364
ZEM11 2.134 +0.165 2.140 2.115 25 514
ZEN11 2.130 +0.161 2.130 2.103 26 473
ZEQ11 2.114 +0.155 2.114 2.113 6 446
ZEU11 2.093 +0.145 2.093 2.093 6 223
ZEV11 2.088 +0.142 2.090 2.083 1 173
ZEX11 2.090 +0.164 2.094 2.090 5 289
ZEZ11 2.089 +0.163 2.093 2.089 2 294
ZEF12 2.010 +0.100 2.010 2.010 0 154
Daily Volume and Open Interest  598 9,460

Closes for: Friday October 8

CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swap
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
FZEV10 2.1179 +0.1493 2.1179 2.1179 198 7811
FZEX10 2.1200 +0.1800 2.1200 2.1200 175 7758
FZEZ10 2.1130 +0.1800 2.1130 2.1130 293 8082
FZEF11 2.1100 +0.1760 2.1100 2.1100 508 4301
FZEG11 2.1150 +0.1750 2.1150 2.1150 508 3916
FZEH11 2.1270 +0.1730 2.1270 2.1270 508 4055
FZEJ11 2.1250 +0.1620 2.1250 2.1250 190 2717
FZEK11 2.1340 +0.1650 2.1340 2.1340 190 2604
FZEM11 2.1300 +0.1610 2.1300 2.1300 190 2614
FZEN11 2.1140 +0.1550 2.1140 2.1140 145 1411
FZEQ11 2.0930 +0.1450 2.0930 2.0930 145 978
FZEU11 2.0880 +0.1420 2.0880 2.0880 145 978
Daily Volume and Open Interest 3,195 48,714

5
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol Futures – Daily & Weekly Charts

6
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Forward Ethanol Swaps – Daily & Weekly Charts

7
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

NYMEX Chicago and New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Closing Prices

Closes for: Friday October 8

NYMEX Chicago Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
CUV10 2.1723 +0.1409 2.1723 2.1723 87 2198
CUX10 2.1600 +0.1950 2.1600 2.1600 340 1158
CUZ10 2.1300 +0.2000 2.1300 2.1300 48 670
CUF11 2.1000 +0.1900 2.1000 2.1000 88 355
CUG11 2.1050 +0.1700 2.1050 2.1050 13 235
CUH11 2.1050 +0.1650 2.1050 2.1050 13 246
CUJ11 2.1250 +0.1750 2.1250 2.1250 13 56
CUK11 2.1300 +0.1800 2.1300 2.1300 13 56
CUM11 2.1300 +0.1700 2.1300 2.1300 13 56
CUN11 2.1250 +0.1600 2.1250 2.1250 0 0
CUQ11 2.1100 +0.1600 2.1100 2.1100 0 0
CUU11 2.1050 +0.1600 2.1050 2.1050 0 0
CUV11 2.1000 +0.1600 2.1000 2.1000 0 70
CUX11 2.0950 +0.1600 2.0950 2.0950 0 70
CUZ11 2.0950 +0.1600 2.0950 2.0950 0 70
Daily Volume and Open Interest  628 5,240

Closes for: Friday October 8

NYMEX New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
EZV10 2.2756 +0.1486 2.2756 2.2756 55 1017
EZX10 2.2700 +0.1850 2.2700 2.2700 0 559
EZZ10 2.2100 +0.1700 2.2100 2.2100 0 450
EZF11 2.2100 +0.1700 2.2100 2.2100 0 200
EZG11 2.2150 +0.1700 2.2150 2.2150 0 125
EZH11 2.2150 +0.1650 2.2150 2.2150 0 125
EZJ11 2.2250 +0.1650 2.2250 2.2250 0 90
EZK11 2.2300 +0.1600 2.2300 2.2300 0 90
EZM11 2.2300 +0.1600 2.2300 2.2300 0 90
Daily Volume and Open Interest  55 2,746

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

NYMEX Chicago (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart

NYMEX New York (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart

9
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

Ethanol (Platts) FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures (Including & Excluding Duty)

10
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Distillers Dried Grains (DDG) Futures

11
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol Nearest-Futures versus NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Nearest-Futures

$4.50
Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.227
$4.00
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ($/gal)
$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00
CBOT Ethanol Futures ($/gal)
$0.50
5/05 8/0511/052/06 5/06 8/0611/062/07 5/07 8/0711/072/08 5/08 8/0811/082/09 5/09 8/0911/092/10 5/10 8/10 $/gal

Spread: CBOT Ethanol Futures - NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ($/gallon)

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

$0.00

-$0.50

-$1.00

-$1.50
5/05 8/0511/052/06 5/06 8/0611/062/07 5/07 8/0711/072/08 5/08 8/0811/082/09 5/09 8/0911/092/10 5/10 8/10 $/gal

12
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol Nearest-Futures versus CBOT Corn Nearest-Futures

$8.00
Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.608
$7.00
Corn Futures ($/bushel)
$6.00

$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

Ethanol Futures ($/gal)

$1.00
5/05 8/0511/052/06 5/06 8/0611/062/07 5/07 8/0711/072/08 5/08 8/0811/082/09 5/09 8/0911/092/10 5/10 8/10

Spread: CBOT Ethanol-Corn and Ethanol-Corn+DDG Crush Margins ($/gallon)

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00
Corn for Ethanol Crush Margin (Ethanol-Corn+DDG) (in $/gal) = Ethanol Price -
(Corn Price/2.8 gal/bu) + [(DDG Price/lb x (17.5 lb/bu / 2.8 gal/bu)]
$1.50

$1.00

$0.50
Ethanol-Corn Crush Profit Margin ($/gallon) =
Ethanol Price - (Corn Price / 2.8 gal/bu)
$0.00
$/gal
5/05 8/0511/052/06 5/06 8/0611/062/07 5/07 8/0711/072/08 5/08 8/0811/082/09 5/09 8/0911/092/10 5/10 8/10

13
CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CBOT Ethanol Futures versus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures

$7.00 $0.30

Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.154

$6.00 $0.25
Sugar Futures ($/lb)
(right scale)
$5.00 $0.20

$4.00 $0.15

$3.00 $0.10

$2.00 $0.05
Ethanol Futures
($/gal) (left scale)
$1.00 $0.00
$/gal 5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 $/lb

Spread: CBOT Ethanol Futures minus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures ($/gallon)

$2.00
Spread ($/gallon) = Ethanol Price - (Sugar Price * 14.8 lb/gal)
Estimated Ethanol-Sugar Profit Margin Per Gallon

$1.00

$0.00

-$1.00

-$2.00

-$3.00
5/05 8/0511/052/06 5/06 8/0611/062/07 5/07 8/0711/072/08 5/08 8/0811/082/09 5/09 8/0911/092/10 5/10 8/10 $/gal

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

Nymex FAME Argus Biodiesel FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures

Closes for: Friday October 8
FAME Argus Biodiesel FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
2LV10 1101.429 +11.667 1101.429 1101.429 50 540
2LX10 1099.000 +27.000 1099.000 1099.000 40 350
2LZ10 1097.000 +24.000 1097.000 1097.000 20 280
2LF11 1081.000 +19.000 1081.000 1081.000 20 190
2LG11 1083.000 +20.000 1083.000 1083.000 20 190
2LH11 1085.000 +20.000 1085.000 1085.000 20 190
2LJ11 1074.000 +15.000 1074.000 1074.000 0 60
2LK11 1076.000 +15.000 1076.000 1076.000 0 70
2LM11 1079.000 +18.000 1079.000 1079.000 0 60
2LN11 1084.000 +16.000 1084.000 1084.000 0 80
2LQ11 1090.000 +24.000 1090.000 1090.000 0 80
2LU11 1088.000 +21.000 1088.000 1088.000 0 80
2LV11 1091.000 +21.000 1091.000 1091.000 0 20
2LX11 1092.000 +21.000 1092.000 1092.000 0 20
2LZ11 1092.000 +21.000 1092.000 1092.000 0 20
2LF12 1090.000 +6.000 1090.000 1090.000 0 40
2LG12 1092.000 +7.000 1092.000 1092.000 0 40
2LH12 1093.000 +6.000 1093.000 1093.000 0 40
Daily Volume and Open Interest  170 2,350

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

Nymex RME Biodiesel (Argus) FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures

Closes for: Friday October 8
RME Biodiesel (Argus) FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures
Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
1AV10 1171.429 +15.762 1171.429 1171.429 30 360
1AX10 1188.000 +36.000 1188.000 1188.000 0 340
1AZ10 1189.000 +36.000 1189.000 1189.000 0 370
1AF11 1181.000 +23.000 1181.000 1181.000 10 180
1AG11 1182.000 +22.000 1182.000 1182.000 10 190
1AH11 1184.000 +22.000 1184.000 1184.000 10 190
1AJ11 1179.000 +23.000 1179.000 1179.000 0 30
1AK11 1181.000 +25.000 1181.000 1181.000 0 30
1AM11 1182.000 +24.000 1182.000 1182.000 0 30
1AN11 1184.000 +19.000 1184.000 1184.000 0 30
1AQ11 1182.000 +13.000 1182.000 1182.000 0 30
1AU11 1186.000 +14.000 1186.000 1186.000 0 30
1AV11 1181.000 +9.000 1181.000 1181.000 0 10
1AX11 1182.000 +9.000 1182.000 1182.000 0 10
1AZ11 1182.000 +8.000 1182.000 1182.000 0 10
Daily Volume and Open Interest  60 1,840

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

Nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures versus ICE Gasoil Nearest-Futures

Rolling 1-yr Correlations: $1,200

RME vs Gasoil: 0.698
RME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT) FAME vs Gasoil: 0.666
RME vs FAME: 0.798 $1,100

$1,000

$900
FAME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT)
$800

$700
ICE Gasoil ($/MT)
$600

$500

$400
5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 $/MT

Spreads: Nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures Minus ICE Gasoil

$500

$450
RME Argus Biodiesel - Gasoil Spread
$400

$350

$300

$250
FAME Argus Biodiesel - Gasoil Spread
$200

$150
5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 $/MT

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

U.S. Ethanol Industry Data

U.S. Monthly Ethanol Production U.S. Ethanol Imports vs Ethanol Price

140 $4.00
1000
Jul-2010: 857,000 bpd 120 $3.50
900 Jun-2010: 854,000 bpd
$3.00

Imports - Million Gallons/Mo

Ethanal Price - $ Per Gallon

800 May-2010: 847,000 bpd 100
Thousand barrels/day

700 Ethanol $2.50

80
Prices
600 $2.00
60
500 $1.50
40
400 $1.00
300 20 $0.50
Source: EIA-DOE
200 0 $0.00
05 06 07 08 09 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

U.S. Ethanol Monthly Inventory Stocks U.S. Ethanol Stocks (in Days of Usage)
900 28
Jul-2010: 747 mln gal.
800 26
2010 (June 20.8 days)
24
Mln Gallons

700
4-year average
2009
600 22

500 20
2008 Source: EIA/DOE 2009 Source: RFA
400 18
Feb

Oct
Aug
Sep
June
Jan

Mar

May
Apr

July

Nov
Dec

Feb

Sep
Oct
Apr

Jul
Jun

Aug
Mar

Dec
Nov
May
Jan

U.S. Annual Ethanol Production U.S. Ethanol Plant Capacity & Construction
14 15
2009: 10.8 bln gal. Source: Renewable Fuels Association
12
2010 (yr-to-date annualized): 12.84 bln gal.
10 10
Billion Gallons/Yr

2010 RFS Mandate: 12.95 bln gal.

Billion Gallons/Yr.

Sep-10 Capacity: 13.765 bln gal

8
Under Construction: 847 mln gal
6 5

4
Source: EIA-DOE
2 0
0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Production Capacity Under Construction

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CME GROUP ETHANOL OUTLOOK REPORT OCTOBER 11, 2010

CME Group Ethanol Contracts

Contract Exchange Clearing Barchart Bloomberg Contract Venue Delivery
Symbol Symbol Symbol Symbol Size

CBOT Ethanol
29,000 gal- CME Physical delivery with seller paying negotiated freight
Futures (Chicago ZE EH ZK DL
lons Globex delivery to buyer, or Chicago default delivery.
delivery)

Cash-settled to the average of the settlement prices for

CBOT Ethanol 14,500 CME the Ethanol futures contract that follows the Ethanol
FZE 71 FZ FZE
Forward Month Swap gallons ClearPort calendar Swap contract for each business day in the
Ethanol Calendar Swap contract month.

CBOT Ethanol 1 Forward

COS/ CME Options are cash-settled on the last clearing day and
Forward Month Swap 71 - - mth swap
POS ClearPort cannot be exercised at any time
Options contract

NYMEX Ethanol 42,000 CME

QE QE QB QEE Physical delivery New York Harbor
Physical Futures (NY) gallons Globex

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average

NYMEX Chicago
42,000 CME of the high and low quotations from Platts for Chicago
Ethanol (Platts) Swap CU CU FL CUA
gallons ClearPort Ethanol (Terminal) for each business day during the
Futures
contract month.

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average

NYMEX New York
42,000 CME of the high and low quotations from Platts for New York
Ethanol (Platts) Swap EZ EZ FH TTA
gallons ClearPort Ethanol NYH (Barge) or each business day during the
Futures
contract month.

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average

NYMEX Ethanol of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from
(Platts) T1 FOB Rot- 100 cu CME Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the
2M 2M D1 BME
terdam Ex Duty Swap meters ClearPort “Ethanol fob Rotterdam ex duty” assessment for each
Futures business day that it is determined during the contract
month.

Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average

NYMEX Ethanol of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from
(Platts) T2 FOB 100 cu CME Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the
Z1 Z1 D2 ZAE
Rotterdam Including meters ClearPort “Ethanol fob Rotterdam including duty” assessment
Duty Swap Futures for each business day that it is determined during the
contract month.

Note: All CME ethanol contracts are quoted in terms of US Dollars per gallon and have contracts for each consecutive month.

CME Group Ethanol Contacts

Erich Reulbach Lisa Kallal John Hill
Manager, Energy Products and Services Manager, Commodity Products & Services EMEA Economist, Research & Product Development
Erich.Reulbach@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2445 Lisa.Kallal@cmegroup.com - 011-44-20-7796-7130 John.Hill@cmegroup.com 312-930-1852

Alexandra Siff Daniel Brusstar

Associate Director, Energy Products Director, Energy Research & Product Development
Alexandra.Siff@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2368 Daniel.Brusstar@cmegroup.com - 212-299-2604

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This presentation by Commodity Research Bureau is being distributed by the CME Group as a general service to the broader futures community. By distributing this information, CME Group is neither endorsing
nor accepting the presentation nor any of the conclusions contained in the presentation. Moreover, CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and no express or implied warranties are made.
Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to buy/sell, or as a solicitation to buy/sell, any security, commodity or derivatives instrument or be construed as any manner or type of investment advice.

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presentation, Commodity Research Bureau assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and no express or implied warranties are made. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to buy/sell, or
as a solicitation to buy/sell, any security, commodity or derivatives instrument

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