The Future of Business

Schools in South Africa

Produced by the South
African Business
Schools Association
 CONTRIBUTORS CONTENTS
Dr Millard Arnold (South African Business Schools Association)
Prof Mias de Klerk (University of Stellenbosch)
Prof Jon Foster-Pedley (Henley Business School) 04 THREE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
Dr Randall Jonas (Nelson Mandela University)
Prof Nicola Kleyn (Gordon Institute of Business Science) 06 THE SCENARIO PROCESS
Prof Tina Kotze (University of the Free State) 08 IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MANAGEMENT EDUCATION
Dr Penny Law (Regenesys)
Dr Renosi Mokate (University of South Africa) 12 IDENTIFYING DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Prof Vinessa Naidoo (Tshwane University of Technology)
Dr Cobus Ooshuizen (Milpark Business School) 14 REFERENCES
Prof Theuns Pelser (University of KwaZulu-Natal)
Ms Alison Sinclair
Mr Paresh Soni (Management College of Southern Africa) KEYWORDS
Dr Jane Usher (Milpark Business School)
Prof Helena van Zyl (University of the Free State) Business School, Scenarios, South Africa, Economy, Political, Social License, Technology
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES

AUTHOR AND SCENAIRO BUILDING FACILITATOR

Marius Oosthuizen (Gordon Institute of Business Science)

BACKGROUND
The South African Business School Association (SABSA) undertook a two-day scenario-building workshop, to form a coherent
forward view of the trends and “drivers of change” that will shape the operating environment of South African business schools in
the coming decade.

It was acknowledged that a high level of diversity exists in the business school landscape in South Africa, and that as such,
implications vary for the operational, policy and strategic relevance of the scenarios on a school-by-school basis. As a result, an
attempt was made, throughout the scenario-building process, to accommodate a range of contextual considerations as per their
relevance to the array of SABSA member schools.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A multi-stakeholder scenario-building process was undertaken to explore the future of business schools in South Africa. Three
alternative scenarios emerged for business schools, given changing conditions in their operating environment, namely; “Running
out of Road” (baseline scenario), “Sky Way, New Entrants” and “Dead End, Sector versus Players”. These scenarios arise from
current trends in ideological shifts in society, a stagnant economic environment, rising societal expectations and social license SABSA OFFICE SCENARIO FACILITATOR
pressures, rapid technological advances resulting in changing client demands, a cumbersome regulatory and institutional ANNE WILSON MARIUS OOSTHUIZEN
environment, extreme climate, and reputational and legitimacy risks facing schools. Variable levels of preparedness and resilience MANAGER FACULTY: STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
are apparent in different schools needing to navigate these scenarios, relating to their financial models, and diversification of SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESS SCHOOLS ASSOCIATION (SABSA) GORDON INSTITUTE OF BUSIENSS SCIENCE
offerings, technology adoption and the use of networks to enhance their market access and research agenda and capacity. Schools
c +27 82 828 7300 | f +27 86 523 4593 t +27 11 771 4378
are likely to face headwinds in future, unless they adopt lean cost management tech-enabled alternative models for delivery and
form strategic collaborations and partnerships. The capacity of the sector to navigate the regulatory and institutional landscape is e ANNE@SABSA.CO.ZA C 084 670 1723
likely to be fundamental to their progress in the medium term. w WWW.SABSA.CO.ZA e OOSTHUIZENM@GIBS.CO.ZA

2 | GIBS GIBS | 3
 THREE ALTERNATIVE . . .ARE UNABLE TO MAKE
THE TRANSITION REQUIRED
SCENARIOS AND FAIL DUE TO COST
PRESSURES.
In order to accommodate all drivers in an integrative manner, the first scenario created was a baseline scenario, which considered
what the future would be like, if all the drivers and trends continued in their current trajectory. The alternative scenarios were then
extrapolated from the baseline, given specific changes in the drivers and trends. The result was an initial three scenarios, with two SCENARIO 1: BASELINE SCENARIO (ORANGE) - “RUNNING OUT OF ROAD”
mid-way alternatives, as set out below:
“Sky Way” In the baseline scenario, “Running out of Road”, the ideological and social pressures on South African society continue unabated.
(New Entrants) Failure to find political consensus and cooperation result in an ever-weakening economy that is unable to deliver on the social
FUTURE OF BUSINESS SCHOOLS (2025-2030) expectations of citizens, and within which the business community is increasingly cash-strapped. Human capital development
takes a back seat as restructuring and cost-cutting are undertaken. While the adoption of technology offers new and efficient
ways of delivering management education, the stifling effects of the regulatory environment mean that business schools are
too slow to evolve and enjoy diminishing returns from an ever-shrinking market. Vulnerable to climate shocks and disruption,
DRIVERS OF CHANGE business schools have to cope with the added burden of a waning social license among citizens and societal stakeholders, as well
as the business community that sees schools as out-dated “ivory towers” and unable to provide them with answers to the tough
Ideology
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES

(Polarisation, Contestation) competitive landscape, within which they have to operate.

Economics
(Slow Growth) SCENARIO 2: BEST CASE SCENARIO (GREEN) - “SKY WAY” (NEW ENTRANTS)
‘Pockets of Excellence”
Social
(Redress, Change, Fracture) In the best case scenario, “Sky Way”, the ideological and social pressures on South African society are relieved through rapid
inclusive development achieved through a concerted effort towards collaboration by the social partners. The ability to find political
Technological
consensus and cooperation results in an ever-expanding economy that is able to deliver on the social expectations of citizens,
(Preparedness, Adoption, Client Demand) “Running out and within which the business community is increasingly able to invest in human capital development. The accelerated adoption
Regulatory of Road” of technology offers new and efficient ways of delivering management education, leading to a race to the top among schools in a
(Dysfunctional, Burdensome, Slow, Unresponsive)
“new tech-enabled normal”. The stifling effects of the regulatory environment are mitigated by effective sectoral engagement and
Environmental “Some Schools Fail” stakeholder management, meaning that business schools are able to evolve at a rate commensurate with change in the business
(Variability, Extreme) environment, and enjoy handsome returns from an ever-expanding market.
Legitimacy
(Relevance, Social License) While climate shocks are disruptive, business schools are able to make the investments in mitigation strategies to cope. By
positioning themselves as a partner for inclusive development, business schools are able to enhance their social license among
citizens and societal stakeholders. So too, the business community views schools as beacons of excellence, opening avenues to
relevant, game-changing ways of doing business, helping them navigate the competitive landscape, within which they operate as
they expand domestically and abroad. Due to the opportunities presented by the expanding market and conducive conditions, new
entrants see South Africa as a hunting ground and through a series of acquisitions, alliances and strong technology-enabled plays,
pose a significant competitive challenge to the value proposition of local schools.
“Endangered Species” “Dead End”
(Sector vs. Players) or “Pockets of Excellence”
(Survivalists)
As a sub-scenario of the best case, “Pockets of Excellence” is a scenario, in which only some schools are able to make the social,
financial, technological and institutional transition to a navigate the immediate future. As a consequence, these isolated schools
maintain a globally competitive foothold, while their peers are overwhelmed by the external changes in the environment.

SCENARIO 3: WORST CASE SCENARIO (RED) - “DEAD END” (SECTOR VS. PLAYERS)
In the worst-case scenario, “Dead End”, the drivers of change coalesce in a destructive, reinforcing vicious cycle of decline.
As ideological contestation worsens, the economy stalls amid successive ratings downgrades and a series of divestments by
. . .ALL THE DRIVERS significant business players. This results in the rise of social pressure and erodes the business school community’s social license
at an alarming pace. The adoption of technology, as an attractive cost reduction mechanism, erodes the commitment to quality
WERE CONSIDERED IN and pedagogical rigor as business schools drift increasingly towards a survivalist posture. In this scenario, the stand-alone
business school of today becomes an endangered species as private sector belt-tightening strangles demand for lucrative executive
CREATING A SERIES OF education and flagship programmes, such as the MBA, lose their appeal in favour of short, affordable skills-based programmes.

PLAUSIBLE, ALTERNATIVE or “Some Schools Fail”

FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR As a sub-scenario of the worst-case, “Some Schools Fail” is a scenario, in which the economic conditions do worsen, but
BUSINESS SCHOOLS. established schools with strong market penetration are able to survive, while schools that depend heavily on the procurement
cycle from human capital development budgets of the private sector, are unable to make the transition required and fail due to cost
pressures.

4 | GIBS GIBS | 5
 THE SCENARIO
The preliminary insights gained from these sources were brought into an interactive workshop setting, facilitated over two days.
During the workshop, participants were asked to identify additional trends pertinent to the discussion, and then asked to debate
these in various sub-groups of 5-6 members, in order to create a parallel peer-review and delphi-type cross-testing of their

PROCESS
perspectives. The aforementioned framework was used as a guiding tool for this initial scanning process. These inputs were then
captured and located within their respective contextual location on the framework, and their implications for schools explored
through an open plenary dialogue among participants.

The scenario-building process began with the collation of inputs from various institutional representatives, of contextual
trends that they consider to be shaping the future of their institution. This step constituted a pre-workshop scanning
process, whereby experienced executives, with many years’ experience working in the sector, were able to table their
considered views, on what changes ought to be on the strategic radar of business schools leaders as they navigate their
changing operating environment.
With these inputs as background, a comprehensive framework of analysis (see below) was developed, according to which deeper
analysis could be done of the trends shaping the sector. The framework, covering factors internal and external to schools, provided
a conceptual landscape for analysis and data gathering. The data gathering process included a collation and comparison of various
industry forecasts, already in the public domain, undertaken by consultants, practitioners and media commentators.
Once a comprehensive collection of trends had been obtained, these were reviewed by workshop participants once again, working
in sub-groups, to assess their anticipated impact and respective level of uncertainty, in terms of how they will affect business
schools in future. Through this process, participants fulfilled the role of subject matter experts on the state and future of the
sector, drawing on their collective intelligence, tacit contextual intelligence and their strategic concerns. By again debating in
plenary, their inputs, and synthesising the views of the respective sub-groups, a high level of convergence about probable future
implicaitons emerged between the participants.
WORKSHOP OUTLINE
DAY 1 DAY 2

Session 1: Foundations of Scenario Planning and Scoping the Landscape Session 1: Scenario Logics and Stories of the Future
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES

FRAMING THE FUTURE OF SA BUSINESS SCHOOLS

Session 2: Environmental Scanning – Trends and Drivers
Session 2: Windtunneling Current Strategy in Alternative Scenarios (SWOT
OPERATING ENV. STAKEHOLDERS Business Moving Away Session 3: Impact and Uncertainty of Drivers of Change
Analysis)
Unemployment Rates Credibility and Standing from Traditional Formal
Western Session 4: Clustering and Sense Making
Qualifications
Dominance
GOVERNMENT BUSINESS (Mindset)
Coping with Complexity The assessment of the trends was deepened once more with a systems thinking analysis, as will be seen below, of the underlying
drivers of change that were understood to give rise to the trends themselves. These were considered both on a trend-by-trend basis
“School vs Main Campus” CHE Value For Money? Market Needs? Deep Knowledge as well as their interactive systemic effects as a whole.
Partnering Education as Services (rather than group)
Specific Skill Demands The respective drivers, in relation to their impact and respective uncertainty, were then deductively consolidated into an
integrative set of scenarios. Importantly, instead of selecting two or more high-impact drivers only, and by implication
General disregarding the rest (thereby constructing scenarios on the basis of these alone), the entire driver set was instead considered in
FUNDING STUDENT CURRICULUM Knowledge an integrative manner. This allowed for the scenarios that emerged to be inductively conceived from a multi-driver perspective.
Financial Working / Interdisciplinary Training and Skills This process of synthesis and anticipation introduced an inductive dimension to the process through an interactive and facilitated
Sustainability Professional Future of MBA? (rather than dialogue in plenary and ensured a richer qualitative outcome.
Fundraising Students Relevance? formal)
Time-Stressed In order to systematically approach the multi-driver approach taken, the steps selected in the creation of the scenarios involved; i)
envisioning a baseline scenario, contemplated on the basis of the guiding question, “What would happen if all the current drivers
OUTPUTS ePublishing continued along their current trajectory and at their current pace of change?” This baseline scenario provided a themematic
Unbundled Education INFRASTRUCTURE spine, around which alternative scenarios could diverge, as contingencies of various path dependencies resulting from changes
in individual drivers, their effects, their pace of change and their cross-impacts on other drivers, over time. A non-linear
Overseas Differentiation Transformation Industry 4.0 morphological perspective was thus taken to derive at alternative scenarios, while adhering to the systemic assumptions arrived at
AL
FUNDING during the earlier analysis process.
Public vs. ACADEMICS TECHNOLOGY VR
Universities Once a set of scenarios had been articulated, these were fleshed out in terms of their operational and strategic implications for
Pipeline? Digital Block chain business schools. The scenarios, once named and described, provided a basis for a SWOT analysis of the current strategies of
business schools in South Africa. This stress-testing use of SWOT emphasises the capacity of schools, or lack thereof, to operate
across the range of plausible future scenarios anticipated.

DESCRIPTION OF FRAMEWORK
The framework sets out the conceptual landscape, within which the scenario-building process was undertaken. At the top of
the framework reference is made to the operating environment and institutional stakeholders. These two components provided
important nodes for reflection, particularly as they relate to the socio-political context, within which business schools, as
members of larger public institutions, operate, and the array of stakeholder relations within the two domains of government and
business. In the middle of the framework, consideration is given to the three core business model components of funding, students
and curriculum, around which business schools typically pivot operationally. At the base of the framework, the foundational issues
of infrastructure and academics (faculty) are noted, with the entrants of competition on the one hand and academic outputs on the
other, as well as the cross-cutting issue of technology at the bottom right. Around each of these nodes are plotted key references to
issues and trends that arose from the initial trends survey conducted among institutional leaders, ahead of the workshop.

6 | GIBS GIBS | 7
 IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MANAGEMENT EDUCATION TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
Changing market demand More and more South Africans will be forced to obtain postgraduate qualifications for employment
Stakeholders were invited to submit a list of trends ahead of the workshop that, in their assessment, signify significant changes reasons, with specific skills and vocation reasons. This will marginalise the value of qualifications in the
taking place in the operating environment of business schools. These are listed below: long-run.
Public universities will attempt to
TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT emulate private business schools
Impact of technology on teaching This is a catch-all for everything to do with on-line learning, digital space, virtual classrooms.
Competing strategic priororties Public business schools will be geared towards 3rd income stream activities and short-term goals with
and learning (How we deliver) Expectations on flexible learning, synchronous/asynchronous. How do we meet this opportunity and
quality issues and attempt to emulate trade schools rather than academic schools.
challenge? Overseas schools compete in our space then. Artificial Intelligence. Virtual Reality. Augmented
Reality. Blockchain.
Employers moving away from The demand of MBA and similar will peak and different offerings will be required.
Financial pressure on tertiary Increasingly, we will have to paddle our own canoe. How do we ensure we remain fit for purpose, relevant
traditional business qualifications
institutions (Our future and address our own financial sustainability. Will we remain affordable, value for money? Will we be seen
sustainability) to be legitimate agents of change for the betterment of our stakeholders?
Mobility

Academic staff development (Will
our academics be able to deliver
on what we need?)
Alternative academic offerings
(The MBA itself, what is its
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
Transformation imperative, young academics, teaching, research attracting right staff who will meet the Integrated Education Journeys Students and employers demand that offerings be flexible and integrated with their current workloads.
future challenges. We are not developing business academics at the rate required. How will we address
this. What of insufficient PhDs (for example). Insufficient black academics. Transformation and de-
colonisation of curriculums
Is the MBA still worth its salt? Relevant? What does the market need and want? (These are not the same Political Expedience Sound practice and theories will be discarded in favour of politically motivated offerings, without
thing). Are we to set the agenda, or to have it imposed on us? Pressure for shorter, specific programmes. consulting business and employers.

future? What are the alternatives)
Collaboration dynamics (Cross,
inter, intra disciplinary)
Decline in number of MBA
applications due to lack of
funding/bursaries for MBA
students
Changes in the demographic
profile of MBA students in terms
of race
Move from person-centred
leadership to contextual
leadership
Increased rate of new entrants
Declining government subsidy
Growing diversification of
programmes
Intra-Institutional Differentiation
Applied research? Curriculum design. Our local and global context. Relevant to/in our context. Shaping
our own destiny. Maintaining our credibility and standing. What is expected in terms of leadership and
management competencies and how we shape/influence these.
We can’t work alone to make a contribution to solving our challenges. We will have to partner. With whom,
how do we set the terms of reference, shape the discourse. How will that impact staffing, structure,
skills (etc.) of business schools. This collaboration can extend between business schools locally, in Africa,
outside of Africa, industries, other disciplines (like medical science, biotech, renewable energy, etc, etc.).
Impact on selection decisions.
Challenge the basic assumptions of established ‘Western” theories and mind-sets. Effects on curriculum
development.
Implications for preparing students for leadership and leadership challenges.
An onslaught of international entrants (with both blended and online offerings) will require schools to
differentiate and find ways to provide visible proof points around their offerings.
Business schools of public universities will need to find other fund-raising avenues to ensure
sustainability.
Although the market for MBAs will grow, schools will need to invest in offering other programmes. Where
these conflict with “main campus” offerings, SA B Schools will need to negotiate the degrees they will be
allowed to offer relative to other faculties that currently offer M & D degrees in related areas.
Changing student/client needs
Changing business needs
Changing knowledge
environment
Technology impact – 4th
industrial revolution.
Globalisation
Industry-based business school
vs university based
Time-stressed students operating in an increasingly complex environment, both personally and
professionally. This requires diverse delivery options through the use of technology, composition of
programmes, physical vs virtual delivery variations and styles, with a focus on applied knowledge.
Sometimes, deep knowledge and individual competence vs group functionality are required. Thus, less
group work is key. Lecturers are to be come facilitators of learning rather than mere knowledge transfer
agents.
More and more people specialise in their respective fields and graduate without a strong foundation
of the principles of business. Although business needs specialists, there is a greater move towards
employing people with general business knowledge and skills. Business requires people who can solve
problems in an increasingly complex world and think differently, going beyond a specific area. Business
schools need to train people for this.
More training players disseminating knowledge and focusing on skills, not necessarily formal, have
entered the market. Udemy is a good example. They are extremely relevant to business, resulting in some
working professionals opting for such training instead of formal qualifications. Similarly, open source
learning is emerging more and more, making expensive formal programmes questionable. Technology will
have a big impact in driving this, where the main driver will no longer be content, but skills or thought
processes, where content will only be the vehicle with which the skills are transferred.
This will also have an impact on the publication of books and articles, where more and more information
will become open source.
It has become increasingly easier to study business administration internationally, resulting in the
competitive environment becoming much larger. Thus, business schools need to ensure that they can give
working professionals a globally relevant and competitive experience.
Internationally, there is a move towards business schools to be established and driven by industries or
large corporations instead of universities. There are some of these starting to take shape in SA as well.
This has huge implications for SA business schools not only from a ‘teaching’ perspective, but it also
means that the role of executive training and especially research as we know it will change.

Growing requirement to
demonstrate social contribution
Increased government
intervention into public
universities
Education as a Service
Unemployment rates in Southern
Africa and Africa in general.
Business schools will need to actively decide on the arenas, in which they will make their social
Growing uncertainty and The relevance and value of business education will require constant review and contextualisation to assist
contribution.
complexity in the 21st century business and society to make sense of the unknown and the unpredictable.
society
The curricula and general discretion of public universities will be increasingly fettered by government.
Private universities will be afforded far more latitude and freedom to compete, using business models A nagging apprehension about Because of previous (Enron) and present (KPMG) unethical business behaviour and a sharp decline in
that will not necessarily include a focus on research. world morality, ethical behaviour the global trust in government and business, the legitimacy and reputation of business and business
and trust education per se is expected to come under scrutiny.

8 | GIBS GIBS | 9
 TREND
AI and Robotics
New Entrants with Value-Adding
Services
Socio-Economic Malaise in the
form of Poverty, Unemployment
and Inequality
Stakeholder Apprach to Business
Digitisation & Technology
Disruption of World of Business
Delivery of Teaching &
Technology Disruption
MOOCs
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
International Competition
Internationalisation of the Market
Socio-political instability in SA
Rate of Change in Business
Digital education
4th Industrial Revolution
Experiential learning
Workplace-based learning
Job placements
Edutourism
Social and environmental
consciousness
10 | GIBS
DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
The impact of AI and robotics on the workplace is going to force business schools to enhance, innovate
and reform its offerings to suit the requisite competencies and skills of the workplace in the technological
era. Critical their skills of reasoning, analysis and diagnostic.
The value proposition of the traditional model of a business school is set to be diluted by the emergence
of several other competitors that offer a consulting service to companies as an alternative to business
education.
Business schools should produce business leadership intelligence that tackles the triple bottom line and
balancing stakeholder and shareholder interests in a globalising world.
Exponential increase in digitisation is likely to change the business environment dramatically. How will/
should this change the curricula of business schools?
Commoditisation of Management Education via freely available online resources like MOOCs. The drive
to move to, or to expect online delivery of teaching – even free online teaching from some international
business schools. How will this influence the future of the MBA?
Geographical footprint has little impact on the market that can be served. More international business
schools are looking to become involved in Africa and South Africa – is this an opportunity or a threat to
SA business schools?
E.g., #FeesMustFall, weakening of the exchange rate, inflation and a lack of government support, can
make it almost impossible for SA business schools to deliver quality MBAs. What about impact from other
and other student unrests, and instability in SA government due to faction fighting in ruling party, etc.
The dramatic speed of change in the business environment is likely to make it very difficult for business
schools to keep up with new and changing business practices and needs. Increasing distance between
what direct client (the students) value and what the stakeholders (market / rankings / institutions)
measure as success.
The fourth industrial revolution is radically transforming the way, in which education is and will be
delivered. Students want sophisticated blended education that involves an interactive digitised course
and virtual synchronous contact. This requires a shift in an institution’s teaching and learning approach,
infrastructure and interaction with students.
Workplace learning is becoming increasingly important as this ensures that graduates can transition more
swiftly in the workplace. The curriculum should be more practical and applied. Facilitators need to be able
to make better connections between theory and practice. More importantly, assessments and discourse
should reflect on learnings to encourage deep learning.
International business schools are offering internships and some even guarantee employment with
relevant organisations as part of the programme. Business schools are required to establish partnerships
with businesses so that they can be placed and possibly employed.
Countries such as the UK, USA and Australia are realising that education can be a lucrative revenue
stream for their economy. SA is the perfect destination because of the cost and quality of education.
Business schools will attract students from around the world, which means their curriculum would have to
be more globally relevant with an emphasis on global leadership.
A global trend is to be mindful of how our actions impact society and the environment. Business schools
need to develop graduates to be more socially and environmentally conscious through dialogues,
assessments and practical projects.
TREND
Climate change and other
sustainability factors
Advances in Data Analysis
Big Data
The mineralisation of the
research component in the MBA
Unbridled digitisation of
academic programmes
Future World of Work
The digitisation of courses
Virtualisation of Education
Demand for more hybrid delivery
- contact plus online
Seamless articulation from Exec
Ed to formal quals
Need to get our online side
sorted out
Close interaction with Exec
Ed plus a bit of course re-
engineering
Shifting Business Models
DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
The imperatives of sustainability are becoming more extreme, including matters of new KPIs for
business success, ethics and governance. The uncertainty around the language of sustainability, its
misappropriation by self-serving factions, and the emergence of the relational and generative economy
make taking decisive business decisions towards positive change for sustainable wellbeing difficult.
Preparing future business leaders must include the ability to address these issues. Current low levels of
awareness of the subject matter will make it a difficult sell in the contemporary marketplace. It is similarly
difficult to attract the few suitably qualified leading-edge thinkers on this topic. Finally, integrating this
throughout a full curriculum will be difficult.
The impact of more rigorous ways to model and interpret information (e.g., marketing metrics, qualitative
and quantitative data) from electronically-mediated and traditional data sources (i.e., so-called big data).
New technologies facilitate collecting “big data” and rigorously modelling it to understand complexity,
change and the key drivers of financial, social and environmental sustainability. The ways that we teach
students to understand sources of demand, sources of supply, and methods of effective management
must prepare them for this new world.
Compromises the intellectual output of the MBA by significantly reducing the quantity and range of
applied thinking in the degree. No matter that graduated MBAs can theoretically enter PhD study; they
simply have nowhere near the grounding to do so. In fact, the MBA is a professional degree, and the CHE
specifications state that they should be able to be admitted to a cognate doctorate - which is a DBA, not
a PhD.
Digitisation is the new trend that is fast catching up with business schools worldwide. An increasing
number of courses are becoming virtual. While this widens access to academic programmes to a large
number of people and may offer decent revenue for the university, the long-term consequences can be
dire, particularly on the quality of academic programmes. Digitisation may lead to oversupply of business
school graduates relative to their demand with ramifications for the job market and the relevance of
business school degrees. It may also affect negatively the way learners and teachers interact, effectively
shifting face-to-face contact into a virtual world. Lastly, it is my view that digitisation will hasten the
Artificial Intelligence world we are in now and cause severe disruptions to student-lecturer relationships.
In the emerging techno-human society of the 21st Century, there are several existential threats to work and
jobs as well as shifting employment trends. Many of the roles that business schools are training people for
will not exist in the near future, where new skills and competencies will be required.
There is a need to ensure we are future-facing and evolving along with work trends in order to remain
relevant. If we don’t, the impact will be that business schools will become redundant.
Less face-to-face student engagement, more online engagement will increase our potential student
numbers, while decreasing our overall outgoing costs, provided we keep up with the trend and
understand how to scale and scope for this.
Failure of consultancy business models like McKinsey, Bain, etc. International collapse of present
bureaucratic University business models. Entry of new Universities; Singularity, Apple, Google, Pearson,
distance learning important trend, MOOCs, enormous disruptive innovation in teaching, death of
University bureaucracies, curricula contested.
GIBS | 11
 TREND DESCRIPTION OF IMPACT
Demand for Entrepreneurship We will need to form entrepreneurial hubs and enter into direct competition with the international
consultancies and use our frameworks to attack them. It is from here that we will research and derive our
teaching frameworks. It will require new and innovative leadership, which is absent in South Africa at the
moment. The emerging business school leadership types are emerging in the above-mentioned examples.
SWOT ANALYSIS OF SA BUSINESS SCHOOLS
In order to conduct a SWOT analysis of the current strategies and capabilities of schools, the question was posed, “How well will
each of the schools represented fare in each of the possible future scenarios?” The strategic dimensions of “growth strategies”,
“diversification of offerings” and “entrance into African markets elsewhere on the continent” were discussed.

Social License of Business Under Staying relevant in a business environment, where corporations have a low reputation in helping bridge Recognition was given to the differences between private providers and public sector providers, and the diversity of approaches
Pressure the economic and social divide in SA. and strategies employed by the various institutions. It was stated that some of the strategies employed by public providers are
Social Inclusion Curriculum and attitudinal changes that provide a more critiqued perspective of corporate SA and focus not likely to be sustainable under the baseline scenario. The strategic question that emerged for these schools was, “how do you
specifically at their core on issues of inclusion, informal economy, equity, and exclusionary practices. navigate the constraints of lethargic government processes in their attempt to rapidly adapt and evolve?”

IDENTIFYING DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Participants were given an opportunity, working in syndicate groups, to discuss the aforementioned trends and add to the list,
where needed. Having produced a comprehensive list of trends that each syndicate considered comprehensive, the trends
were analysed for their respective “underlying drivers”. In other words, the structural, industry and contextual drivers that are
understood to be giving rise to the trends. What emerged as trends and drivers were the following;
DRIVERS OF CHANGE IMPACT UNCERTAINTY
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES
One of the key themes that featured repeatedly was the potential of better collaboration between schools domestically and
between local and international schools, as a means to navigate the uncertainties represented in the scenarios. So too, the use of
online platforms was discussed, with the recognition that in many cases, the business model associated with their use requires
economies of scale to make them financially viable and justify the investment required. However, there was recognition that
e-learning platforms do provide options to particularly improve affordability and expansion into other markets.
This would be necessary for the sector, particularly under conditions, where a small group of schools have to compete for a
relatively small South African market. The question of local accreditation in new markets was discussed as well as the prospect of
partnering with large private sector players in other territories, to leverage their networks and footprint and in so doing, expand

the reach of schools.

IDEOLOGY 4 2
(Polarisation, Contestation)
ECONOMICS 4 2.5 STRENGTHS IDENTIFIED
(Slow Growth)
Deep expertise in management education, as well as the development and delivery thereof.
SOCIAL 4 3
(Redress, Change, Fracture) High levels of diversification in some schools in terms of their offering.
TECHNOLOGICAL 5 3
Small efforts at collaboration between schools, and between schools and the business community.
(Preparedness, Adoption, Client Demand)
Diverse levels of responsiveness to the changing environment.
REGULATORY 5 2
(Dysfunctional, Burdensome, Slow, Unresponsive)
Uniquely South African perspective on issues such as diversity, social-cultural context and business in dynamic environment,
ENVIRONMENTAL 5 4 which could be leveraged internationally.
(Variability, Extreme)
LEGITIMACY 5 3 WEAKNESSES IDENTIFIED
(Relevance, Social License)
Financial dependence on short-term programmes, in a small market with many comparative players.
Long-term viability of public sector schools, particularly in light of changing mandates within their broader institutional setting.
These drivers were discussed in plenary and synthesised into seven key drivers that together constitute the major sources of
change confronting business schools. As set out in the table, these included;
OPPORTUNITIES IDENTIFIED
Ideology, in the form of polarisation and contestation both in the political arena and between interest groups and stakeholders in
society. The various ideological strains in the so-called #FeesMustFall protest movement on campuses are a case in point. The possibility of shifting the research agenda of schools, across the different scenarios, in response to shifting priorities in
Slow and stagnant economic development and growth were identified, arising from the lack of business confidence and lack of publicly-funded institutions and journals.
investment, due in large part to the aforementioned political uncertainty and ideological contestation.
Rising expectations and pressure for social redress were identified, with growing pressure for change in the socio-economic status The adoption of technology both in terms of learning experience and as a low-cost medium.
quo and the consequent fracture within and between social groupings in South African society.
A range of issues around technological advances were identified and surfaced important questions about the preparedness of The increase of partnerships to enhance relevance and respective strengths of partner schools.
business schools for the so-called “4th Industrial Revolution”, the rate of adoption of technology by business schools and their The leveraging of the emerging middle class in developing markets and positioning, from a reputational point of view, for these
customers and the consequent rise in client demands in relation to technological change. new tech-savvy urban consumers.
In terms of regulation, the consensus was that the regulatory environment is somewhat dysfunctional and burdensome on
business schools, resulting in a slow and unresponsive regulatory stakeholder environment, which is not conducive to fast THREATS IDENTIFIED
adaptation by schools.
The declining relevance of international rankings.
Environmental change, particularly in the form of climate variability and extreme weather was raised as a concern, and finally, The need for scalability in order to reach financial viability across the scenarios.
questions were raised about the general legitimacy of business schools, both in terms of their relevance to business as a Sustaining the relevance of business schools in their current form. From a social license point of view, being viewed by social
constituency and also the broader social license, which business schools enjoy in the context of South African society. stakeholders in an “us versus them” frame, where perceived “elitism” harms the brand and reputation of schools.

These drivers of change were ranked in terms of their respective anticipated impact on business schools, as well as the level of The lack of autonomy in public institutions, leading to inertia and apathy within schools.
uncertainty that participants assigned to each driver. In light of the fact that all the drivers ranked relatively high (out of 5) for The research of the schools agenda coming under financial pressure, in cases, where schools have not sufficiently adopted a lean

.
impact, and of similar uncertainty, the decision was taken not to eliminate any of the drivers in the creation of the scenarios, but approach to cost structures.
rather take an integrative approach as stated. As such, all the drivers were considered in creating a series of plausible, alternative
future scenarios for business school. The prospect of legislation hampering innovation in business schools

12 | GIBS GIBS | 13
 REFERENCES
https://venturebeat.com/2014/05/11/education-as-a-service-5-ways-
higher-ed-must-adapt-to-a-changing-market/

http://study.com/blog/education-as-a-service-it-s-time-to-unbundle-
education.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienturbot/2017/08/22/artificial-
intelligence-virtual-reality-education/#5bd4e3b16c16

http://www.parent24.com/Learn/High-school/the-future-of-learning-
applying-artificial-intelligence-to-education-20170724

https://www.forbes.com/sites/barbarakurshan/2016/03/10/the-future-
of-artificial-intelligence-in-education/#3444e1882e4d
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN SA AND SADC: CURRENT TRENDS & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS GIVEN KEY POLICY & STRATEGIC CHOICES

Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality: http://www.realitytechnologies.

com/education; https://techcrunch.com/2016/01/23/when-virtual-reality-
meets-education/

https://techcrunch.com/2016/01/23/when-virtual-reality-meets-
education/

http://hackeducation.com/2016/04/07/blockchain-education-guide

https://oeb-insights.com/10-ways-blockchain-could-be-used-in-
education/

http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-gartner-
hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017/

14 | GIBS GIBS | 15