Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1x1 line
b-d trendline
corrective waves
Gann square
geometric principles
geometry in trading
market geometry
Ralph N. Elliott
W.D. Gann
ways of trading
Psychology
Trading Ideas
Trading With Market Geometry-
5 Ways to Trade with Market
Geometry
@Colibritrader
Trading with market geometry has been fascinating traders ever since financial
markets exist. In fact, the reason we’re here talking about technical analysis,
patterns, trading principles, and theories, etc., belongs to market geometry.
Traders noted that the price (United States stock market was the “playground”
for early technical analysis concepts) follows some patterns. Like humankind
has a saying that “history repeats itself,” why not applying the same principle
when trading financial markets?
From head and shoulders to rising and falling wedges, Japanese candlesticks to
double and triple tops and bottoms, all represent patterns that reverse a trend.
Others are simply continuation patterns, merely showing the price building
energy before the trend resumes.
Price and time is an exciting concept in technical analysis. Not only that it tells
where the market goes, but also when!
Think of planning a trip to, say, London, to visit your relatives. You know the
destination, but you also know the timing as you plan the trip.
The same is in technical analysis. Some patterns show the direction (the
destination), but how about the time when the price is supposed to reach the
target?
When trading with market geometry concepts, traders combine both price and
time. While a sophisticated idea, when using price and time one is close to
mastering trading.
For the passionate trader, no effort is too big for the perfect trade. But the
perfect trade is closer when trading with market geometry principles that use
price and time.
But above all, we’ll aim at how trading with market geometry principles improves
trading considerable. And that comes from the simple fact that most of the
tactics shown here use both price and time in a forecast.
Trading with market geometry principles is like believing things happen for a
reason. A trader must have an open mind and eye too.
On top of that, a trader must imagine things beyond logic sometimes. Don’t ask
how, but why. Don’t say it’s impossible, but what if?
However, the technical trader uses market geometry to find support and
resistance levels. This simple concept projects horizontal support and resistance
on the right side of the chart.
From left to right, we see the market rising aggressively. At one time, it forms a
double top confirmed but future price action.
It turned out to be a fake reversal. Bulls came back with a vengeance and the
market made new highs.
Despite the fact that the price broke higher, that area is here to stay. Trading
with market geometry means focusing on the smallest details to find technical
clues.
In this case, that’s a resistance area. Because the price managed to break
through, resistance turned into support. That’s previous info to take and project
on the right side of the chart.
That double top formed in 2009. Trading with market geometry implies projecting
future levels.
Hence, marking the double top with a horizontal line should project future
support and resistance levels. Oh, and it did!
One year later, the area proved a strong support when the AUDUSD pair fell out of
bed. Moreover, in 2014, or five years later, support turned into resistance again.
For instance, if the AUDUSD is at potential support, traders would gladly consider
bullish reversal patterns forming on lower timeframes (daily, 4h and even hourly).
The pair eventually broke lower. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) started an
easing cycle stimulated by the Fed in the United States running various
quantitative easing programs.
Was there a way to project levels when trading with market geometry price
action principles? The answer is YES.
Traders simply project the distance from the top to the primary support and
resistance described earlier. Fascinating enough, the resulting level proved to be
key for trading the AUDUSD in the last three years.
For the trader able to build this kind of technical analysis, the market geometry
is incomplete. What is technical analysis trading if we don’t prepare for potential
essential areas on a chart?
Trading with market geometry price action principles ends with projecting the
next level.
Remember?
What if?
What if the market keeps dropping? Is there a level where it might find support?
Funny enough, it is, and it coincides with the previous major bottom a decade
ago.
Remember: When setting stops or targets, traders often use round levels.
Don’t ask why just have a look at any trader’s journal, and you’ll see that this is a
recurring phenomena.
In Forex trading, no level is more important than parity. That is when the two
currencies that make the pair are equal in value.
The red line shows the parity level on the AUDUSD pair. The market bounced and,
while piercing above parity, it formed a reversal pattern (triangle) and broke
lower.
Many currency pairs trade around parity (e.g., AUDNZD, USDCHF). But, few
traders use the parity concept together with the most critical Fibonacci level:
the golden ratio.
The golden ratio or the 61.8% level has many applications in technical analysis.
Entire theories, like the Elliott Waves Theory, are built based on it.
It is only normal to use it when trading with market geometry. What is the 61.8%
level between zero and one? You nailed it: 0.618.
Now compare the chart above with the last one from trading with market
geometry price action principles. Is it just a coincidence or market geometry
tells us something?
W.D. Gann is the father of the price and time concept. He firmly believed that
everything moves for a reason.
He also famously made a public statement calling for the
price of a specific stock to reach a certain level at an exact day. The legend says
he was right!
Gann trading is not the subject of this article. However, if we are to connect price
and time, we needed to at least mention him and some of the concepts here
made famous, like the 1×1 line or the Gann square.
In other words, traders exit and enter a trade not simply for the reason that price
reached a level. But also, for instance, because time expired.
Namely, the price and time principle when trading with market geometry
requires the price to reach the target in a defined period. When time expires, and
the price didn’t reach it, traders merely close the position.
Hence, savvy traders use time too in their analysis. Moreover, as we’ll show
here, closing a trade because of time expiry, doesn’t necessarily mean the trade
ends with a loss.
a neckline
Well, the focus sits with the measured move, as it gives a target for the trade,
after the neckline breaks. In Forex trading head and shoulders are ugly patterns.
Don’t expect them to appear like in textbook materials for the simple reason that
the market swings violently due to the high-volatility environment. A head and
shoulders pattern commonly on the FX market looks like below:
Yes, that’s the same AUDUSD weekly timeframe. The measured move projected
from the neckline gives the price target. That’s where the focus with more
traders is.
But that’s only after the fact. Namely, after the price breaks the neckline.
The focus, instead, should be on the two consolidation areas. Or, the two
shoulders.
When the market rises, nothing indicates the reversal pattern to come. If
anything, the consolidation area on the left shoulder is interpreted as a
continuation pattern.
However, by the time the head reverses, savvy traders suspect the head and
shoulders formation. And, they prepare to trade it accordingly.
According to market geometry principles, they’ll use not only the price levels but
also time. Namely, traders will use info from the left shoulder and project it on
the right one. One of that info is time.
They just measure the time taken for the price to consolidate on the left
shoulder. Next, traders project the time for the right shoulder’s consolation. The
neckline’s break should come in about the same amount of time.
How about the price? The way to deal with price is to copy the neckline and
project it from the top of the left shoulder.
Next, use a Fibonacci retracement tool to find out main Fibonacci levels (38.2%,
61.8%, etc.). Those are entry levels for the aggressive traders. The closer the
time is about to expire before the break, the more aggressive trading becomes.
No signs of a breakout after time expires? Traders simply exit the short
positions.
The chart above shows why trading with market geometry price and time
principles makes sense.
Shorts intensified the pressure as the consolidation time on the right shoulder
was about to expire. As it turned out, trading with market geometry proved to be
quite something, as it gave great entries.
Trading with Market Geometry
Using the Elliott Waves Theory
Elliott loved the price and time principle.
Important: Few traders know that if there is one thing that connects all the
Elliott Waves rules, that’s time, and not price.
There are many places in the theory where time plays a crucial role. For
instance, the entire Elliott Waves Theory deals with interpreting or labeling
impulsive and corrective waves.
In impulsive structures, one rule is vital when labeling them. So-called the
equality rule, it refers to both price and time to be respected.
Such market geometry is difficult to find in any financial product, not to mention
when trading a currency pair. Yet, it is what makes the right Elliott Wave count
possible and what differentiates wrong labeling from correct labeling.
the 2-4 trendline of an impulsive move must be broken in less than the
time it took the 5th wave to form
the 5th and the 1st wave in a 3rd wave extension impulsive move relate both
in price and time; they are equal or relate to 61.8% both in price and time
We already mentioned that the AUDUSD price reversed from a triangular pattern.
Here it is:
Important: Market geometry in a triangular formation calls for the price to break
the b-d trendline in less than the time it took the e-wave to form.
All triangles must respect this basic rule. If not, the pattern is not a triangle.
So, what, many of you will say. Well, that’s key in knowing when to start the
count with the Elliott Theory.
If both price and time validate the triangle, the end of the previous wave
coincides with the end of the triangle.
Conclusion
Trading with market geometry respects beautiful concepts from all kind of
trading theories and not only. Starting with simple principles and moving into
more details, market geometry reveals a world of discipline given by both price
and time.
Many trading theories and concepts use market geometry principles. From pure
price action to Elliott Waves Theory, from Gann to simple pattern recognition,
they all aim to forecast the right price.
In technical analysis, it is said that “the devil is in the details”. That’s so true as
small details make the difference between the right and the wrong technical
setups.
The art of speculation in financial markets blends flair with knowledge. While
flair can’t be taught, knowledge can. And, if there’s any one thing to master,
that’s trading with market geometry.