Decision Analysis Energy

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Energy 31 (2006) 2604–2622

www.elsevier.com/locate/energy
Review
Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling:

An update
P. Zhou, B.W. Ang, K.L. Poh
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore,
10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 119260, Singapore
Received 19 October 2004
Abstract
The 1995 survey on decision analysis (DA) in energy and environmental modeling by [Huang et al. Decision analysis in
energy and environmental modeling. Energy 1995; 20: 843–855] lists 95 publications. We updated the survey and found
that the number of publications has almost tripled to 252. We also extended and refined this earlier survey by classifying
the 252 studies by source of publication, DA method, application area, and several new attributes. Statistical analyses
using hypothesis testing and a multiple attribute analysis on the suitability of different DA methods in each application
area were conducted. It was found that the importance of multiple criteria decision-making methods and energy-related
environmental studies has increased substantially since 1995. We also describe some new developments that have taken
place since the last survey.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Decision analysis; Multiple criteria decision making; Energy modeling; Environmental modeling
Contents
1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2605
2. Decision analysis methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2605
3. Classification of studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2606
4. Main features observed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2608
4.1. Non-temporal features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2608
4.2. Temporal features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2609
4.3. Comparisons with the earlier survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2611
5. Statistical tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2612
6. A multiple attribute analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2613
7. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2614
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2614
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2614
Corresponding author. Tel.: +65 6874 2203; fax: 65 6777 1434.

E-mail address: g0300220@nus.edu.sg (P. Zhou).
0360-5442/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.energy.2005.10.023
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P. Zhou et al. / Energy 31 (2006) 2604–2622 2605
1. Introduction
As mentioned in Huang et al. [1], decision analysis (DA) was first applied to study problems in oil and gas
exploration in the 1960s and its application was subsequently extended from industry to the public sector. The
1991 study by Corner and Kirkwood [2] lists 86 DA studies that appeared in operations research and related
journals from 1970 to 1989. They found that DA was very suitable to address strategic or policy decisions full
of uncertainties and multiple conflicting criteria. In a more recent study, Keefer et al. [3] surveyed 85 articles
appearing in 1990–2001 and found that the use of DA for strategic and tactical decisions was growing.
Energy and environmental (E&E) issues are generally complex and conflict with multiple objectives (in this
study, we confine environmental issues to only energy-related environmental issues). These issues generally
involve many sources of uncertainty, long time frame, capital intensive investment and a large number of
stakeholders with different views and preferences, which make the application of DA methods particularly
suitable [1,4]. It is not surprising that in the surveys by Corner and Kirkwood [2] and Keefer et al. [3], over a
quarter of the studies dealt with energy-related issues.
So far, the most comprehensive survey on DA in E&E modeling was conducted by Huang et al. [1]. It covers
a wide spectrum of DA methods and E&E application areas. Some literature surveys with a more specific
focus have also been reported. For instance, Greening and Bernow [4] reviewed the application of multiple
criteria decision making (MCDM) methods to the analysis and formulation of E&E policies. Pohekar and
Ramachandran [5] reviewed more than 90 MCDM studies in sustainable energy planning. Janssen [6] reviewed
multiple criteria analysis in environmental impact assessment analysis in the Netherlands.
The study by Huang et al. [1] reported a total of 95 studies that appeared before 1995. These studies were
classified by DA method, and general and specific E&E application areas. For each application area, they also
conducted a multiple attribute analysis to assess the suitability of each DA method in E&E studies. Their work
provides a useful guide to researchers and practitioners. Since 1995, the interest in E&E issues has risen as a
result of the growing emphasis on environmental protection and sustainable development worldwide. The
literature has expanded substantially with at least 150 new journal publications. There is, therefore, a need to
revisit the area and provide an up-to-date literature survey.
In the sections that follow, we shall first refine the classification of DA methods in Huang et al. [1]. We then
classify a total of 252 studies published from 1975 to 2004 by source of publication, DA method, application
area, and several other attributes. We present the main features observed and report on new findings. Finally,
we conduct a series of statistical tests and a multiple attribute analysis similar to that in Huang et al. [1].
2. Decision analysis methods
We shall classify DA methods into the three main groups as shown in Fig. 1: single objective decision-
making (SODM) methods, MCDM methods, and decision support systems (DSS).
SODM comprises a class of methods for evaluating the available alternatives with uncertain outcomes
under a single objective situation. A classical approach is the decision tree (DT). Another approach, the
influence diagram (ID), provides a simpler and more compact representation of decision problems [7].
MCDM allows decision makers to choose or rank alternatives on the basis of an evaluation according to
several criteria. Decisions are made based on trade-offs or compromises among a number of criteria that are in
conflict with each other [8,9]. Multiple objective decision making (MODM) and multiple attribute decision
making (MADM) are the two main branches of MCDM [10].
MODM methods are multiple objective mathematical programming models in which a set of conflicting
objectives is optimized and subjected to a set of mathematically defined constraints. The purpose is to choose
the ‘‘best’’ among all the alternatives [11]. A special case of MODM is the multiple objective linear
programming (MOLP) where the objective functions and constraints are linear functions.
MADM refers to making preference decisions by evaluating and prioritizing all the alternatives that are
usually characterized by multiple conflicting attributes. Fig. 1 shows the more popular MADM methods in
E&E studies. Multiple attribute utility theory (MAUT) allows decision makers to consider their preferences in
the form of multiple attribute utility functions [12]. A special case of MAUT is multiple attribute value theory
(MAVT) where there is no uncertainty in the consequences of the alternatives. The analytic hierarchy process
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2606 P. Zhou et al. / Energy 31 (2006) 2604–2622
Decision analysis methods
Single objective decision Decision support Multiple criteria decision

making (SODM) systems (DSS) making (MCDM)
Decision tree Influence diagram Multiple attribute decision Multiple objective decision
(DT) (ID) making (MADM) making (MODM)
Multiple attribute Analytic hierarchy ELECTRE PROMETHEE OMADM

utility theory (MAUT) process (AHP)
Fig. 1. Classification of decision analysis methods.
(AHP) is a methodology consisting of structuring, measurement and synthesis, which can help decision makers
to cope with complex situations [13,14]. The elimination and choice translating reality methods, including
ELECTRE I, II, III and IV methods, are a family of outranking methods [10,15]. The preference ranking
organization methods for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are also a class of outranking methods
[16,17]. Other multiple attribute decision making (OMADM) methods such as conjunctive and disjunctive
methods, TOPSIS are also popular in practice [10]. However, they have not been as widely adopted in E&E
modeling and as such are lumped together as OMADM.
DSS refer to any interactive, flexible and adaptable software systems that integrate models, databases and
other decision aiding tools, and package them in a way that decision makers can use [18]. A DSS supports the
solution of complex and unstructured decision problems that are difficult to handle. In traditional DSS, the
users must often depend on their expertise knowledge in order to choose the appropriate parameters and
models. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have led to the development of intelligent DSS which provide
more flexibility to the users in dealing with different situations by incorporating a knowledge base that
contains heuristic knowledge from domain experts.
3. Classification of studies
The 252 studies [19–270] are collected and classified according to the following attributes: year of
publication, source of publication, country/region, problem level, application area, energy type, and DA
method.1 The last attribute is based on the classification presented in Section 2. Since some studies use more
than one DA method, we further classified the methods used into major or minor, where the minor method is
often used as the auxiliary tool of the major method. The definitions of the other attributes are described
below.
In the case of ‘‘source of publication’’, we define six sources and the notations used are as follows. Source 1
is journals focusing primarily on energy or natural resources issues, e.g. Energy, Energy Policy, Energy
Economics, and Energy Sources. Source 2 is journals focusing primarily on energy engineering issues, e.g.
Energy Conversion and Management, Electric Power Systems Research, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
1
A table which lists all the studies surveyed with their attributes specified, is too big to be included in this paper. It is available from the
corresponding author upon request.
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and Electric Power and Energy Systems. Source 3 is journals covering the broad areas of environment, ecology
or climate change, e.g. Journal of Environmental Management, Environmental Modeling and Assessment,
Ecological Economics and Journal of Industrial Ecology. Source 4 includes operations research, management
science, and decision science journals, e.g. Management Science, Operations Research, Interfaces, IEEE
Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, and Decision Sciences. Source 5 refers to journals that cannot
be classified under any of the above four sources, such as Fuzzy Sets and Systems. Source 6 is non-journal
publications such as conference papers and book chapters. It should be noted that the surveyed studies after
1995 are primarily journal papers.
In terms of ‘‘application level’’ the publications are broadly divided into two groups: strategic/policy (S/P)
and operational/tactical (O/T). The S/P level mainly deals with issues related to macro issues such as energy
policy analysis, energy investment planning and energy conservation strategies. The O/T level deals with issues
which are operational and related to short-term development goals such as bidding, pricing and technology
choice.
The following seven ‘‘application areas’’ are specified: energy policy analysis (I), electric power planning
(II), technology choice and project appraisal (III), energy utility operations and management (IV), energy-
related environmental policy analysis (V), energy-related environmental control and management (VI), and a
miscellaneous category (VII). A short description on each area is given below.
Energy policy analysis (I) is concerned with the evaluation of energy systems with the purpose of guiding the
development and formulation of energy policy. The area covers national or regional energy systems
assessment, public debate on energy policy, energy conservation strategies and energy resource allocation
issues.
Electric power planning (II) deals with strategic planning issues during the course of power generation,
transmission and distribution, such as power generation expansion planning, electrical transmission network
expansion planning and power distribution planning.
Technology choice and project appraisal (III) involves the evaluation and selection of energy technologies
and appraisal of energy-related investment project. Where a study specifically deals with the evaluation,
appraisal or selection of projects in electricity supply, it shall be classified under electric power planning (II).
Energy utility operations and management (IV) is concerned with the operational issues in energy industry
such as energy biding and pricing, power plant siting and the management of energy companies. It covers all
energy sources and in the case of power plants, this area also includes the development of DSS aiding the
management of electricity utility. When there are interactions between this area and Area III, we give a higher
priority to Area III.
Energy-related environmental policy analysis (V) deals with the policy level of energy-related environmental
problems such as assessment of climate policy, public debate on green-house warming and air
pollution control policy. It is closely related to Area I except that energy-related environmental issues are
studied here.
Energy-related environmental control and management (VI) deals with such areas as solid waste
management, evaluation of waste storage sites and environmental impact analysis related to major
development projects. To a large extent, its coverage is similar to that of Areas II–IV except that the focus is
now on environmental rather than energy issues.
The miscellaneous category (VII) includes rather unique and specialized areas which could not be included
in any of the above six areas.
We break down ‘‘energy type’’ into six categories: energy in general (EG), coal (C), oil and
gas (O/G), nuclear energy (N), renewable energy (RE) and electricity (Elec). The category energy in
general (EG) refers to studies that treat energy supply and demand in general terms and do not focus
on a specific energy type. The category renewable energy (RE) includes all renewable energy sources,
such as hydro, solar, wind and geothermal energy, and biomass. For simplicity, a study is classified
based on the primary energy type studied, e.g. a study dealing with the operation of nuclear power
plants would be classified under the category nuclear energy (N) while one that deals with the
issues of electricity generation or distribution would be classified under the category electricity (Elec).
Studies involving several specific energy types and yet are inappropriate to be classified under EG would be
specified as ‘‘Mix’’.
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4. Main features observed
4.1. Non-temporal features
Fig. 2 shows the breakdown of the 252 studies by source of publication. Operations research, management
science and decision science journals (Source 4) and energy and natural resource journals (Source 1) together
account for almost two-thirds (64%) of the surveyed studies. The remaining one-third is fairly evenly
distributed among the other four sources. From the breakdown, one may conclude that DA in E&E modeling
is a truly multi-disciplinary area.
Fig. 3 shows the breakdown by energy type. Not surprisingly, the largest number of studies deals with
electricity (Elec). Ignoring the category of energy in general (EG), renewable energy has also been widely
studied. Application to renewable energy studies includes exploitation of renewable energy resources such as
geothermal potential [53,79,84,85,95], allocation of renewable energy resources [109,188,240] and evaluation
of national renewable energy systems [57,171,184].
Table 1 shows the breakdown of studies by DA method and application area. Since more than one DA
method may be applied in a study classified under a specific application area, the sum of studies by DA
method exceeds that by application area. The last column of Table 1 gives the number of studies in
each area. Of the 252 studies, 63% deal with S/P issues and the remaining 37% O/T issues. This demonstrates
the suitability of DA methods to deal with both operational and strategic problems, as has been reported
earlier [2,3]. More specifically, 23% and 21% of studies deal with energy policy analysis and energy
utility operations and management, respectively. Energy-related environmental control and management
area accounts for 18% of the studies. It is followed by the area technology choice and project appraisal
(13%), electric power planning (11%) and energy-related environmental policy analysis (10%). Over
a quarter of the studies deal with energy-related environmental studies. Examples of such studies
include those on environmental impact assessment [24,174,177,180,182,196,204], nuclear waste management
[87,110,150,158,178,220] and the analysis of climate change and assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation
options [80,97,98,137,168,202,203,210,252].
Table 1 shows that MCDM methods are the most commonly used DA methods. Specifically, the last row of
the table shows that AHP (18%) is the most popular method, followed by MAUT (17%), MODM (14%) and
DT (14%). Most DT and ID applications involve technology choice and project appraisal or energy utility
operations and management, while only a few of DT applications and no ID applications deal with energy or
energy-related environmental policy analysis. The reason may be that the problems in the former two areas are
more technical and the corresponding uncertainties can be more easily modeled by DA representation tools as
compared to those in the latter two areas. In Table 1 it is also found that a majority of DSS applications deal
with two areas, i.e. energy utility operations and management, and energy-related environmental control and
management. Many issues in these two areas have some recurring features whereby DSS can be fruitfully
applied.
Source 6
10% Source 1
Source 5 25% 1: Journals focusing on energy
7% /natural resources issues
2: Journals focusing on energy
engineering issues
3: Journals covering the areas
of environment, ecology or
climate change
Source 2 4: Operations research,
10% management science and
decision science journals
Source 4 5: Other journals.
39% Source 3
9%
Fig. 2. Breakdown of publications by source of publication.

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Mix, 5%
EG, 19%
C, 1%
EG: Energy in general
C: Coal
Elec, 38% O/G, 11% O/G: Oil/Gas
N: Nuclear energy
RE: Renewable energy
Elec: Electricity
N, 13%
RE, 13%
Fig. 3. Breakdown of publications by energy type studied.
Table 1
Number of studies classified by application area and DA method
Application SODM MCDM DSS Others Total

area number
DT ID MODM MAUT AHP ELECTRE PROMETHEE
I 1 0 18 8 20 3 2 4 11 60
II 2 1 13 4 6 0 0 2 5 27
III 11 4 1 7 7 2 3 1 2 32
IV 19 4 6 13 4 3 2 11 2 54
V 3 0 2 4 9 1 2 3 7 27
VI 4 4 1 11 4 5 1 6 10 43
VII 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 3 9
Total 41 13 41 48 52 14 10 29 40
number
I: Energy policy analysis; II: Electric power planning; III: Technology choice and project appraisal; IV: Energy utility operations and
management; V: Energy-related environmental policy analysis; VI: Energy-related environmental control and management; VII:
Miscellaneous.
4.2. Temporal features
We divide the time frame into three 10-year periods, 1975–1984, 1985–1994, and 1995–2004. The total
numbers of publications are, respectively 34, 73 and 145 in the three periods which indicate a doubling in the
number every 10 years.
Fig. 4 shows the changes that have taken place by source of publication excluding non-journal publications
(Source 6). The breakdown did not change much from 1975–1984 to 1985–1994, with operations research,
management science, and decision science journals (Source 4) dominating these two periods. The shares taken
up by energy/natural resource journals (Source 1), energy engineering journals (Source 2) and environmental,
ecology, and climate change journals (Sources 3), however, increased markedly from a combined share of 27%
in 1985–1994 to 62% in 1995–2004. Correspondingly, the share taken up by Source 4 dropped from 67% to
31% although in absolute terms, the number of publications remained about the same. This shift might show
the changes in the preferred outlets for researchers that could also be influenced by the launch of several new
journals in the areas represented by Sources 1–3 after 1985. Also, it could be the result of wider penetration of
DA methods to different E&E application problems.
By application level, slightly over 60% of studies deal with S/P issues while the remaining deal with O/T
issues, and these shares have remained virtually unchanged over time. The higher share for studies
on S/P issues are likely because these issues are more complex, which makes the application of DA more
meaningful.
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100% 5 5
5
80% 1: Journals focusing on energy

4 /natural resources issues
2: Journals focusing on energy
60% 4 4 engineering issues
3 3: Journals covering the areas
of environment, ecology or
40% 2 climate change
3 4: Operations research,
3 2
2 management science and
20%
1 decision science journals
1 1
5: Other journals.
0%
1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004
Fig. 4. Breakdown of publications by source of publication over time.
100% VII VII

VII
VI
VI VI
80% V V I: Energy policy analysis
II: Electric power planning
V III: Technology choice and
IV
60% IV project appraisal
IV IV: Energy utility operations
III and management
V: Energy-related environmental
40% III III
policy analysis
II
II VI: Energy-related environmental
II control and management
20% VII: Miscellaneous
I
I I
0%
1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004
Fig. 5. Breakdown of publications by application area over time.
By application area, energy-related environmental studies (V and VI in Fig. 5) have been steadily increasing,
from 15% of total publications in 1975–1984 to 34% in 1995–2004, which is consistent with the growing
concern on environmental issues. Another interesting feature is that the share of studies in electric power
planning (II) has been increasing, taking up 5.9%, 9.6–12.4% in the three periods, respectively. Most of these
studies deal with power generation expansion planning [29,62,122–124,159,173,176,192,244]. It might be the
result of the wave of privatization in the electricity sector in recent years but other factors are likely to be at
play as well.
By energy type, DA has most often been applied to electricity (Category ‘‘Elec’’ in Fig. 6). Its share in total
publications increased from 30% in 1975–1984 to 43% in 1995–2004. Not surprisingly, studies related to
nuclear energy (Category ‘‘N’’) has decreased substantially, from 30% in 1975–1984 to 7% in 1995–2004.
Although the share taken up by renewable energy studies (Category ‘‘RE’’) remained little change at about
6% from 1975–1984 to 1985–1994, it increased to 20% in 1995–2004.
The breakdown by DA method is shown in Fig. 7. The share taken up by DT has decreased from 26% in
1975–1984 to 12% in 1995–2004. A declining trend has also been observed for MAUT whose share decreased
from 40% in 1975–1984 to 13% in 1995–2004. This may be due to the difficulties in formulating utility
functions as have been pointed out by Pohekar and Ramachandran [5]. Conversely, the outranking methods
including ELECTRE and PROMETHEE have become more popular. It is also noted that AHP accounts for
a significant proportion in each of the periods. Many AHP applications deal with energy policy and energy-
related environmental policy issues, such as assessment of domestic solar heating systems [57,184], evaluation
and allocation of energy resources [207,208], prioritization of public transportation plans [198,247], and
environmental cost analysis [107,108]. The popularity of AHP is likely due to its simplicity, ease of
understanding and suitability for the evaluation of qualitative criteria. Although there is a small decrease in
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100% Mix Mix

Mix
80% Elec
Elec
Elec
EG: Energy in general
RE
60% C: Coal
RE O/G: Oil/Gas
N N N: Nuclear energy
40% RE RE: Renewable energy
O/G Elec: Electricity
O/G C N
20% C O/G
EG C
EG EG
0%
1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004
Fig. 6. Breakdown of publications by energy type studied over time.
100% ELECTRE
DSS DSS
AHP
PROMETHEE PROMETHEE
80% ELECTRE ELECTRE
AHP
AHP
60% MAUT
MAUT MAUT
40%
MODM
MODM
ID MODM
ID
20%
DT ID
DT
DT
0%
1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004
Fig. 7. Breakdown of publications by DA method used over time.
MODM applications from 1975–1984 to 1985–1994, which is consistent with the findings of Huang et al. [1],
the method has become more popular after 1995. A large number of MODM applications deal with energy
policy analysis and electric power planning. To a large extent, the popularity of MODM is due to its flexibility
in creating alternatives and the availability of many user-friendly computational aiding tools [4,5].
4.3. Comparisons with the earlier survey
There are a number of differences between this study and Huang et al. [1] in terms of scope and definitions.
First, the study by Huang et al. covered 95 studies from 1960 to 1995 and almost two-thirds of them are
journal and conference papers. We have included these papers in our study but excluded the others which are
mainly technical reports. We have included in our study some journal papers published before 1995 which
were not captured in Huang et al. Second, in the classification of DA methods, Huang et al. divided DA
methods into three groups, i.e. decision making under uncertainty (DMUU), MCDM, and DSS, while we
divide them into SODM, MCDM and DSS because there are some interactions between DMUU and MCDM
which may lead to confusion. Third, we have refined the classification of application areas in Huang et al.
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Despite the above, the differences in findings between the two studies reported below are mainly caused by the
new developments of DA in E&E modeling.
First, after 1995, the share of studies on renewable energy has increased while that on nuclear energy has
decreased. Second, the share taken up by energy-related environmental studies has also increased significantly
after 1995. Third, we have found that the MCDM group of methods is the most widely used while in Huang et
al.’s study it was found to be the DMUU group of methods. Fourth, although MAUT, AHP and DT have
been found to be the most commonly used DA methods both in Huang et al.’s study and this study, their
popularity in the two studies are different. In our study AHP has been found to be the most popular and the
DT the least, while in Huang et al.’s study MAUT has been found to be the most popular and the AHP the
least. Fifth, it is observed that MODM has become more popular in our study while few studies deal with it in
Huang et al.’s study.
In some respects, the findings in the two studies are similar. For instance, the largest number of studies deal
with electricity (Elec) and energy in general (EG), energy policy analysis is the most common application area,
energy-related environmental studies account for a large number of studies, and MAUT, AHP and DT are the
most popular DA methods. One possible reason for the popularity of these DA methods is that some
specialized software packages for these methods have been developed, e.g. Logical Decisions (MAUT-based),
Expert Choice (AHP-based), HIPRE 3+ (MAUT&AHP-based) and Precision Tree (DT-based).
5. Statistical tests
These findings presented earlier are based primarily on the journal papers in English surveyed. Other
sources of publications in English, such as technical reports and theses, and non-English publications are not
covered. It is appropriate to treat the data as a sample of all studies or the research interest in this field. If we
make the assumption that the sample is representative of the population, it is useful to conduct appropriate
statistical testing on some findings.
There have been new developments and trends in the application of DA to E&E modeling after 1995. It is
therefore reasonable to use 1995 as a demarcation for hypothesis testing. In our study a total of 107 studies
before 1995 and 145 studies after 1995 (including publication in 1995) are sampled. The data for these two
periods will be used to test the following hypotheses:
H1. There has been a greater emphasis on energy-related environmental issues.
H2. There has been less emphasis on nuclear energy while more on renewables.
H3. There is no significant difference in the share of application level.
H4. The preferred publication outlet for researchers has changed.
H5. The application of SODM has decreased while that of MCDM increased in importance.
The above hypotheses essentially involve the inferences on two proportions, before 1995 and after 1995. For
example, in the case of H1, let p1 and p2 , respectively, be the share of energy-related environmental studies
before 1995 and that after 1995. Then the hypothesis might be verified by testing the null hypothesis p1 ¼ p2
versus the alternative hypothesis p2 4p1 . Hence the procedure of statistical inference on two population
proportions [271] could be used to perform this task. The precondition for the testing procedure is that the two
sample proportions should have approximate normal distributions. Our tests using normal probability plots
show that this condition is satisfied. We have conducted the tests for H1–H5 and the results show that all the
above hypotheses could be accepted. Despite its simplicity, the statistical study conducted is helpful in
providing some formal evidence on our findings and the same procedure might be used to test other explicit or
implicit hypotheses.
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Table 2
Multiple attribute analysis of the application areas
Application area Complexity Uncertainty Multiple criteria Alternative sets Data availability Recurring type
I High High Frequently Selection Difficult Seldom

II Medium Low Frequently Design Easy Periodic
III Medium High Rarely Selection Normal Periodic
IV Low Medium Frequently Selection Easy Common
V High High Frequently Selection Difficult Seldom
VI High Medium Frequently Selection Normal Periodic
Miscellaneous.
Table 3
Comparisons between multiple attribute analysis results and the actual usage revealed by this survey
Application area SODM MCDM DSS
DT ID MODM MAUT AHP Outranking methodsa
I c/C c/C b/A a/B b/A b/B c/B

II c/C c/C a/A b/B b/B c/C b/C
III b/A a/B c/C a/A b/A b/B b/C
IV b/A b/B b/B a/A b/B a/B a/A
V c/B c/C c/B a/B b/A b/B c/B
VI c/B c/B b/C a/A b/B a/B b/B
Miscellaneous.
a
Including ELECTRE and PROMETHEE.
6. A multiple attribute analysis
To determine the suitability of different DA methods in each application area, we conducted a multiple
attribute analysis similar to that in Huang et al. [1] and compared the results with the actual practices revealed
by our survey. The six attributes used in our study are as follows. The first is ‘‘complexity’’ which gives the
relative complexity of a problem measured in terms of low, medium and high. The second is ‘‘uncertainty’’
which is the level of uncertainty involved in a problem also measured in terms of low, medium and high. The
third is ‘‘multiple criteria’’ which is how often the problems in an application area involve multiple criteria,
either frequently or rarely. The fourth is ‘‘alternative sets’’ which is divided into two categories namely design
and selection, reflecting whether the alternatives of one problem are pre-determined or not. The fifth is ‘‘data
availability’’ which refers to the relative difficulty in obtaining the required data for a DA method and it is
given by easy, normal or difficult. The last is ‘‘recurring type’’ which is specified by common, periodic or
seldom, depending on how often a problem occurs.
Table 2 shows our evaluation for each of the application areas with respect to the above six attributes. These
evaluations are then used to determine the suitability of different DA methods for each of the application
areas, which is indicated by ‘‘a’’, ‘‘b’’ and ‘‘c’’ in Table 3. Here ‘‘a’’ indicates that the method is very suitable,
‘‘b’’ the method is not so suitable, and ‘‘c’’ the method is not suitable. The actual level of usage of different DA
methods in each application area as revealed in our survey is shown by uppercase letters ‘‘A’’, ‘‘B’’ and ‘‘C’’.
The criteria for determining the usage level of a DA method in a particular application area is given by the
percentage of studies using the method in relation to the total number of studies in the area. It is given ‘‘A’’ if
ARTICLE IN PRESS
the percentage is more than 20%, ‘‘B’’ if the percentage is between 5% and 20%, and ‘‘C’’ if the percentage is
less than 5%.
In general, for problems with high complexity, AHP and ID are preferred. For problems with high
uncertainty, DT, ID and MAUT are preferred. But for problems with medium uncertainty and high
complexity, the outranking methods are preferred. If a problem involves multiple criteria, MCDM should be
used. In the case of high uncertainty and multiple criteria, MAUT is preferred. For design problems, MODM
should be used. If data are not easily available, AHP and the outranking methods should be preferred. Finally,
DSS is very suitable for recurring problems.
We can obtain a great deal of information from the results shown in Table 3. In the area of energy policy
analysis, the most widely used methods were MODM and AHP. However, our analysis indicates that the
combination of MAUT with AHP may be more suitable because high complexity and uncertainty are general
features in this area. In the area of electric power planning, the popularity of MODM is consistent with our
analysis. In the area of technology choice and project appraisal, DT, MAUT and AHP have been most widely
used. However, our analysis shows that MAUT in conjunction with ID may be more suitable. In the area of
energy utility operations and management, the popularity of MAUT and DSS is consistent with our analysis.
In the area of energy-related environmental policy analysis, the usage level of MAUT in conjunction with
AHP is consistent with our analysis in general. Finally, in the area of energy-related environmental control
and management, the popularity of MAUT is consistent with our analysis. In addition, although the
outranking methods have not been so widely used, our analysis shows that the outranking methods including
ELECTRE and PROMETHEE might be very suitable in this area, which was not reported in Huang et al. [1].
7. Conclusions
As an update of Huang et al.’s study [1], our study gives the developments of DA in E&E modeling in recent
years. Some of these developments are not in tune with the findings reported in the earlier study. Compared to
the conclusion drawn by Huang et al. that DMUU was the most popular technique, this survey instead shows
increased popularity of MCDM methods. In the case of application area, energy-related environmental studies
have increased in importance. These two and some other major findings have been tested statistically in our
study. In addition, with a much larger number of studies, we have conducted a multiple attribute analysis
similar to that conducted by Huang et al. to determine the suitability of different DA methods in each
application area, and then compared the results obtained with the actual practices revealed by our survey. It is
observed that MAUT in conjunction with AHP is suitable for most application areas, which is different from
MAUT in conjunction with ID found in studies by Huang et al. Given the shift of E&E studies from energy
issues to energy-related environmental issues, DA methods, particularly MAUT/AHP and the outranking
methods, are likely to play an important role in E&E modeling in future.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to Editor-in-Chief Noam Lior and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments.
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Energy 31 (2006) 2604–2622

Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling:

Corresponding author. Tel.: +65 6874 2203; fax: 65 6777 1434.

2. Decision analysis methods

Decision analysis methods

Single objective decision Decision support Multiple criteria decision

Multiple attribute Analytic hierarchy ELECTRE PROMETHEE OMADM

Fig. 1. Classiﬁcation of decision analysis methods.

4. Main features observed

4.1. Non-temporal features

Fig. 2. Breakdown of publications by source of publication.

Fig. 3. Breakdown of publications by energy type studied.

Application SODM MCDM DSS Others Total

4.2. Temporal features

80% 1: Journals focusing on energy

Fig. 4. Breakdown of publications by source of publication over time.

100% VII VII

Fig. 5. Breakdown of publications by application area over time.

100% Mix Mix

Fig. 6. Breakdown of publications by energy type studied over time.

Fig. 7. Breakdown of publications by DA method used over time.

4.3. Comparisons with the earlier survey

H1. There has been a greater emphasis on energy-related environmental issues.

H3. There is no signiﬁcant difference in the share of application level.

H4. The preferred publication outlet for researchers has changed.

I High High Frequently Selection Difﬁcult Seldom

Application area SODM MCDM DSS

DT ID MODM MAUT AHP Outranking methodsa

I c/C c/C b/A a/B b/A b/B c/B

6. A multiple attribute analysis

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