Quantitative risk assessment

Definition:
 Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) measures the risks from hazardous activities of a facility
or operation. The risks are quantified in terms of their Probability and Consequences. QRA
can be effectively utilized to estimate the Individual, societal risk and also can be used to
understand and interpret the impact distances due to various accidental scenarios (Land use
planning).

Risk = Consequence × Probability.

WHY IT’S REQUIRED:

 Decision making on the construction/design of plant facilities in the plant based on

consequence analysis
 It supports in finding the most cost effective way of reducing risk.
 Basis for decision making on the required mitigation and safeguards based on assessed risk.
 Facilitates making decision related to active and passive fire protection requirements.

APPLICABLE STANDARDS & GUIDE LINE:

OISD:

 OISD-STD-244 – “Storage and handling of Petroleum Products at depots and terminals

including standalone crude oil storage facilities”.
Section 6.1 State the following
 Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) shall be done when ever major addition(s) in facilities or
major changes in the surrounding areas, operating parameters, product grade takes place or
once in every five years whichever is earlier.
 OISD-STD-206- “Guidelines on Safety Management System in Petroleum Industry”
 Section 4.4.1 State the following
 Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) measures the risk factor on Drilling field, processing area,
Piping area, Pumping section, etc. based on this area it effectively estimates the hazards and
potential failure points or failure modes and mitigation.
PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS REGULATORY BOARD GUIDELINES:

 If an entity has laid, built, constructed, under construction or expanded the LNG&NG terminal
based on some other standard or is not meeting the requirements specified in these regulations,
the entity shall carry out a detailed Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of its infrastructure.
 In case unloading line is used for loading in a piping area, Quantitative risk assessment should be
effectively done in order to achieve the Individual and societal safety measures.

M.B.Lal committee Recommendation:

Section 10.4. State the following

 Carry out Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on large sized installations through well qualified
agency and implement recommendations forthwith.
 Annual Safety Audit to be done by well qualified Third Party agency to ensure that the Industries
are following Safety Standards and Safety Procedures.