This work is compiled to present

up-to-date information on debt stock and borrowing indicators of

Turkey.

Last update: August 31, 2018

1
 DEBT INDICATORS

Republic of Turkey
Ministry of Treasury and Finance
August 2018
Current Situation in Debt Management
With the fiscal disipline and efficient debt management implemented
in recent years in Turkey;

 EU defined debt stock declined under EU-28 averages,

 Net public debt stock has been reduced as percentage of

GDP,

 Ratio of interest expentidures to tax income has been

decreased sharply,

 Significant progress has been achieved in terms of maturity

and foreign exchange composition of debt stock.

3
EU Defined General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)

75
72,1
70
65,7
65
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
60
57,7
55
50,8
50
44,7
43,9
45
38,1 40,1
40 38,2
36,5
35 32,7
31,4
28,8
30 27,6 28,3 28,3 28,4

25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance
4
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
EU (28 countries) 83,8 85,7 86,4 84,5 83,2 81,6 81,5
Euro Area (18 countries) 89,8 91,8 92,0 90,1 89,2 86,9 86,9
Greece 159,6 177,4 178,9 176,8 180,8 178,6 180,4
Italy 123,4 129,0 131,8 131,5 132,0 131,8 133,4
Portugal 126,2 129,0 130,6 128,8 129,9 125,7 126,4
Belgium 104,3 105,5 107,0 106,1 106,0 103,4 106,3
Spain 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,4 99,0 98,3 98,8
France 90,6 93,4 94,9 95,6 96,6 96,8 97,7
United Kingdom 84,1 85,2 87,0 87,9 87,9 87,5 85,8
Austria 81,9 81,3 84,0 84,6 83,6 78,3 77,2
Hungary 78,4 77,1 76,6 76,7 76,0 73,6 73,9
Germany 79,8 77,5 74,7 71,0 68,2 64,1 62,9
Netherlands 66,4 67,8 68,0 64,8 62,0 57,1 55,2
Turkey 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28,3 28,4

Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 07-20-2018); Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, (As of June 29, 2018)
5
 EU Defined General Government Debt Stock

(Million TL) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
Total Debt 508.693 513.666 567.918 588.165 646.472 738.501 877.944 922.279
Central Government 543.462 554.218 608.590 639.468 706.761 797.730 933.443 976.176
Local Government 28.146 29.499 33.567 31.987 36.615 46.633 60.466 65.042
Social Security Funds 11 9 11 9 9 9 9 10
Between Sector Consolidation - 62.925 - 70.060 - 74.250 - 83.299 - 96.914 -105.871 -115.975 -118.948

(Million TL) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
Total Debt 508.693 513.666 567.918 588.165 646.472 738.501 877.944 922.279
Currency and Deposits 994 1.139 1.291 1.502 1.815 2.087 2.342 2.413
Securities 429.429 440.169 480.065 500.399 546.524 619.409 735.413 768.769
Loans 78.271 72.357 86.562 86.265 98.132 117.005 140.189 151.097

(%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1

GGCGD / GDP (*) 36,5 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28,3 28,4

(*) For quarterly terms, ratios are calculated using GDP in TL amounts on a four quarter moving basis.

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance 6

Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)

Billion TL 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1

I- Public Gross Debt Stock 546,0 562,7 622,9 649,9 722,1 819,8 954,6 993,3

• Central Government 519,1 532,9 586,2 612,5 678,2 760,0 876,5 913,2

• Rest of the Public Sector 27,0 29,8 36,7 37,4 43,8 59,8 78,1 80,1
II- Assets and Public Sector
256,4 322,3 425,6 463,1 561,1 600,6 692,3 721,6
Deposit
• Central Bank Net Assets 143,2 189,5 271,1 304,4 376,2 397,1 445,5 481,9

• Public Sector Deposits 59,8 71,6 84,2 77,4 91,8 100,3 130,1 119,1

• Unemployment Insurance Fund 53,5 61,2 70,4 81,4 93,1 103,2 116,7 120,7

III- Public Net Debt Stock 289,6 240,5 197,2 186,8 161,0 219,2 262,2 271,6

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance

7
 Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
350,0

317,5
300,0 309,0
271,6
289,6
262,2
274,5 270,1
250,0 267,1
257,9
250,8 247,9
240,5

215,3 219,2
200,0
197,2
186,8

150,0 161,0

100,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance

8
Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)

70
59.9
60 53.6
47.6
50
40.1
34.4 23.2
40 18.5 32.7
10.0 28.2 26.8 30.9 27.4
30 6.2 2.5
3.1 0.8 20.8
2.7 15.3
0.6 10.9
20 9.1
30.4 30.1 6.9 8.4 8.4 8.4
25.5 29.1 26.5 28.4 26.6
25.1 24.1
10 20.1 18.3 15.3
0.0
12.6 9.2 9.1 8.4 8.5
0 -3.0 -4.4 -3.4 -0.1
-2.4 -0.7
-10

2018 Q1
2003

2006

2014

2017
2002

2004

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2015

2016
TL FX Denominated/Indexed

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance

9
 Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

100

26.3 25.2
32.4 30.2
38.5 34.8
44.2 43.0 44.0 40.8 40.2
46.1 46.0 46.5
75 51.1 49.8

50

73.7 74.8
67.6 69.8
61.5 65.2
57.0 56.0 59.2 59.8
53.9 54.0 55.8 53.5
25 48.9 50.2

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July
Fixed Floating

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance 10

Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)

100

29.2 26.7 29.7 27.5

31.4 33.9 31.3 32.3 35.1
37.7 37.3 38.3 38.9
41.6 43.4
75 46.4

50

70.8 73.3 70.3 72.5

68.6 66.1 68.7 67.7 64.9
62.3 62.7 61.7 61.1
58.4 56.6
25 53.6

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July

TL Foreign Exch.

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance

11
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt in TL (%)

100

34,9 35,6
43,4 41,7 40,5
75 48,7 51,0 48,6 48,9 49,9 51,0 48,3 47,8 47,4
54,8 53,7

50

65,1 64,4
56,6 58,3 59,5
25 51,3 49,0 51,4 51,1 50,1 49,0 51,7 52,2 52,6
45,2 46,3

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July
Fixed Floating

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance 12

 Sensitivity of General Government Debt to GDP Ratio

2001 2017

Change in real exchange rate app/dep + / - 2.1 points + / - 0.5 points

by 5 percent
Change in TL interest rate by 500bp + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.8 points

Change in GDP growth rate by + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.5 points

2 percentage points

Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards) are
measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2017 stock figures.

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

13
 Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey (Billion USD)

Billion USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
TOTAL 291.7 305.3 342.0 392.3 405.3 399.7 408.7 454.3 466.7
SHORT TERM 77.2 83.1 102.4 133.3 135.1 105.4 101.4 117.9 122.2
LONG TERM 214.5 222.2 239.5 259.0 270.2 294.4 307.3 336.4 344.4
PUBLIC SECTOR 89.1 95.8 106.3 118.9 121.3 116.6 123.3 136.4 140.9
SHORT TERM 4.3 8.6 13.3 20.6 21.4 18.1 19.7 22.1 24.0
LONG TERM 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.6 103.5 114.3 116.8
CBRT 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7
SHORT TERM 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
LONG TERM 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6
PRIVATE SECTOR 191.0 200.2 228.6 268.1 281.6 281.7 284.6 317.2 325.1
SHORT TERM 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.8 113.3 87.1 81.6 95.6 98.1
LONG TERM 119.7 126.9 140.5 156.3 168.2 194.6 203.0 221.5 227.0

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT

14
 Ratios on Gross External Debt of Turkey (%)

% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1

GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 37,8 36,7 39,3 41,3 43,4 46,4 47,4 53,4 52,9

PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT

24,7 24,1 26,2 28,2 30,1 32,7 33,0 37,3 36,8
STOCK / GDP
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT
256,2 226,3 224,3 258,4 257,2 277,9 286,8 289,4 291,0
(FOB) (*)
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
167,8 148,4 149,9 176,6 178,6 195,9 199,7 202,0 202,8
STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*)
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
27,7 25,7 29,2 28,3 26,4 23,2 22,5 18,5 18,2
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**)
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT 104,5 94,4 97,6 83,3 79,1 88,2 90,8 71,4 69,5
STOCK (**)

Source: CBRT, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance

(*) Source for export data is CBRT's Balance of Payments Statistics, April 2018.
(**) Source for reserves data is CBRT's International Investment Position Statistics, April 2018.

15
 Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey / GDP (%)

60,0

55,0 53,4
54,8
52,9
50,0

47,4
45,0 45,9 46,4

43,4
40,0 41,6 41,3
40,0
39,3
38,0 37,8
35,0 36,9 36,7
36,2
34,2
30,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT 16

 Interest Payments of External Debt of Turkey / GDP (%)

3 2.7

2.2

2 1.8
1.7
1.6 1.6 1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.0
1

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: CBRT (Balance of Payment Statistics, April 2018), TURKSTAT

17
 Turkey's Net External Debt Stock (Billion USD)

Billion USD 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
I- Gross External Debt Stock, Excluding Banking Sector (A-a-b) 204,3 216,3 229,4 228,2 231,4 243,2 271,3 279,4
A. Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey 305,3 342,0 392,3 405,3 399,7 408,7 454,3 466,7
a. Central Bank of Turkey (-) 9,3 7,1 5,2 2,5 1,3 0,8 0,7 0,7
b. Banks (-) 91,7 118,6 157,7 174,6 167,0 164,7 182,3 186,6
II- Banking Sector / Monetary Sector Net Foreign Assets (**) 21,7 26,3 -0,3 -16,5 -21,3 -10,7 -19,8 -23,8
A. Monetary Authorities and Deposit Money Banks (*) 30,8 38,5 15,2 0,0 -4,6 7,7 1,1 -3,2
B. Investment and Development Banks & Participation Banks -9,2 -12,2 -15,6 -16,5 -16,6 -18,4 -20,9 -20,6
III- NET EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (I-II) 182,6 190,0 229,7 244,7 252,7 254,0 291,2 303,2
Net External Debt Stock/GDP (% ) % 22,0 % 21,8 % 24,2 % 26,1 % 29,3 % 29,4 % 34,2 % 34,3
Memo:
GDP (USD) (***) 831,7 871,1 950,4 934,9 861,9 862,7 851,0 882,8

(*) As the Treasury’s obligations to the IMF is included in the external liability side of the Monetary Survey table and Gross External Debt Stock, this amount is
subtracted from CBRT’s liabilities in order to avoid double counting.
(**) Central Bank's Banking Survey data, that is not published anymore, was used until 2005. After 2005, Monetary Survey data is used as net foreign assets of
monetary sector.

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT 18

Turkey’s Net External Debt / GDP (%)
%40,0
%37,4

%34,3
%35,0
%34,2
%30,7
%30,0
%29,4
%25,6 %29,3

%25,0 %26,1
%22,6 %22,4
%22,0 %24,2
%19,8 %19,5
%20,0 %21,8
%19,8 %19,8

%15,0

%10,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT

19
Interest Rates of TL Denominated Zero-Coupon Bonds (annual,
compounding, % )
85 Monthly Average
80 Annual Cumulative
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
J 02

J 03

J 04

J 05

J 06

J 07

J 08

J 09

J 10

J 11

J 12

J 13

J 14

J 15

J 16

J 17

J 18
J

J
O

O
A

A
*As of July, 2018

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 20

 1,000

-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
J-08
A-08
J-08
O-08
J-09
A-09
J-09
O-09
J-10
A-10
J-10
O-10
J-11
A-11
J-11
O-11
J-12
A-12
A-12
N-12
F-13
M-13
A-13
N-13
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)

F-14
M-14
A-14
EMBI+

N-14
F-15
M-15
A-15
EMBI Turkey

N-15
Turkey - EMBI+

F-16
M-16
A-16
N-16
M-17
J-17
S-17
D-17
M-18
J-18
21
Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing (Months)

80 74,3
71,8 71,2 69,7
68,5 67,4
70
60,8
60

50 44,1 44,7

40 34,0 35,3
31,7
27,7 28,0
30

20 14,8
11,6
9,4
10

0
20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018*
*As of June, 2018

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 22

Average Maturity of Eurobond Issuances (Years)

30

25 22.4
20.6 20.2 20.0 19.7
20 17.6 18.1
16.5 16.4
15,3 15.7
14.2 14.8 14.4
15
12.2
10.1 9.9 10.0 10.3
9.5 9.1 10.0 10.0 9.0
10 8.6 8.2
8.0 8.0
7.0
6.6
5.0
5 3.0

0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
Euro Dollar Yen

23
Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
60
55,0 55,1
51,9
50,5 50,6
50 46,9

40
33,6
31,0 31,1
30
25,7
23,5 24,0 23,9 24,4

20
12,8 12,4 11,8

10

0
2002

2010

2011

2012

2013
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2014

2015

2016

2017
2018
July
Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance 24
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)

28

23,2
24 21,5 21,5

19,4
20 17,3 17,3 17,3

15,6
16 13,6 13,4
12,4

12 10,3
10,3 8,6

8
7,1

4 4,4

Source: CBRT 25
 TL Denominated Eurobond Issuances of Foreign Corporates (Billion TL)

140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
J 05

J 05

J 06

J 06

J 07

J 07

J 08

J 08

J 09

J 09

J 10

J 10

J 11

J 11

J 12

J 12

J 13

J 13

J 14

J 14

J 15

J 15

J 16

J 16

J 17

J 17

J 18

J 18
Source : Reuters & Bloomberg 26
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
10

8.0

6
5.0

2.6
2
1.0
0.4
0.0

-0.5 -0.6
-2 -1.4 -1.3
-1.8
-2.4 -2.6
-3.1
-3.6

-6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 27

Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
20

16.2 16.2
16
13.8

12 11.2
10.2

8 7.2
5.5
4.5 5.1
3.2 3.6
4
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.0
0
99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13
19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
28
 Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
15.000
14,189
14.000
13.000
12.000

11.000

10.000
9.000
8.000
7.000

6.000

5.000
4.000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 Q1
Source: Treasury
29
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
60
51,9
50

40

27,3
30 24,7
22,1
19,7
18,1 16,7
20 16,4

8,2
10 6,4
5,4 3,9
3,4 2,8 2,6
0,9 1,1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July*

* Annualized as of July 2018

Source: Treasury
30
Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD)

500

400

300

200

100

0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

July 2018
Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other

Source: Treasury

31
 Public Sector Primary Surplus / GDP (%) (Program Defined)

6 5,3
5 4,6 4,6
4,3
4
3,0
3 2003-2015 Average: 2,1
2 1,5 1,6
0,7 0,9 0,9
1 0,5 0,5 0,6
0,2
0

-1 -0,6 -0,4
-1,0 -1,0
-2 -1,5
1993 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
-
2002

(*) 2018-2020: Medium Term Program targets.

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, MTP 2018-2020

32
 Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)
14

12 11,6 11,2

10
8,6
8

6 5,3
5,0

4 3,5

1,6 1,8 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,6

2 1,3 1,5
1,0 1,0 1,1 1,0 1,1
0,6
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018*

2019*

2020*
(*) Provisional
2018-2020: Medium Term Program targets.
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2018-2020 MTP 33
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
25 23,7

20

15

10,1
10 8,9

6,5

5 4,4 Maastricht Criteria: % 3.0

2,9
2,3
1,2 1,5
0,8
-0,7 0,2
0
-0,2 -0,4
-1,7

-5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012 2013 2014 2015

34
Source: EUROSTAT
 Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)

13
11,8

11
9,7

9
7,0 7,1
7
4,8
5
3,5
3 2,2 2,4 2,1
1,5 1,9
0,9 1,0 1,3
1 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,5 0,0

-1 -0,1

-1,8
-3
g.

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

*
17

18

19

20
Av

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
0
00
-2
90
19

(*) 2018-2020: Medium Term Program target

Source: Ministry of Development, 2018-2020 MTP

35
Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)

59,8
60

50

40

30

20

8,2
10

0
1985-2003 2003 - 2016

Source: Privatization Authority

36
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues
(%)
90 85,7

80
70,9
70

60 56,3

50
38,2
40 33,4 31,9
30,1 30,9
30
22,9
16,6 17,4 15,3
20 14,2 13,0
10,9 10,6
10

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Source: Ministry of Finance

(*) Provisional 37
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)

20

14,4
15
12,5

9,8
10
6,8
5,8 5,5
5,1 5,3
5 4,2
3,0 3,1 2,8 2,4 2,3 1,9
1,8

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Source: Ministry of Finance

(*) Provisional 38
DEBT INDICATORS