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Overview
Regional carriers are better positioned for value creation than US legacy airlines
86%
81%
OVERVIEW OPERATIONS COMPETITIVE VALUATION & RISKS CATALYSTS APPENDIX
LANDSCAPE
% Total Arrivals on Time
94%
81%
OVERVIEW OPERATIONS COMPETITIVE VALUATION & RISKS CATALYSTS APPENDIX
LANDSCAPE
Lost Baggage per 1,000 Passengers
1.9
4.3
OVERVIEW OPERATIONS COMPETITIVE VALUATION & RISKS CATALYSTS APPENDIX
LANDSCAPE
% Monthly Flights Cancelled
0.2
1.3
OVERVIEW OPERATIONS COMPETITIVE VALUATION & RISKS CATALYSTS APPENDIX
LANDSCAPE
Competitive Landscape – Hawaiian Airlines
• Never filed for bankruptcy has therefore racked up $10 billion in losses
for past 10 years
• Competing directly with newly-restructured companies (Delta/Northwest
and United/Continental AA at competitive disadvantage
• Labor cost disadvantage at $600M vs. Delta and Continental
• One of oldest and most diversified fleets in industry
• MD-80 fleet poses significant safety and operational risks
10
American Airlines
is more exposed
to fuel price
fluctuations than
Hawaiian Airlines
American Airlines is
more than 2X more
expensive than
Hawaiian Airlines
• Price War: prices have been crushed by Go! Mukulele inter-islands routes. This is possible because
Republic Airways (90% owner) is subsidizing the low-fares for Go! Mokulele, which means HA has a
competitor that can price below market for the “indefinite” future.
• New Entrants: Alaska Airlines and Allegiant entering Hawaii will further drive down prices
Counter Arguments: - Capacity expansion to Korea and Japan may offset loses due to potentially
escalating price war
- May not be able to compete as prices are so low already (per ATA, Mesa)
Counter Argument: - Merger synergies would not be enough to compete with Delta/Northwest and
United/Continental, which would still be better capitalized and have much
larger networks
- Unlikely US Airways shareholders would approve a merger with worst airline in
industry
• More Fuel Efficient Planes: replacing MD-80s with 737 will lead to lower fuel costs
Counter Argument: - Even after accounting for fuel savings, AA would not be profitable. On a relative
basis, Hawaiian Airlines’ would still be less sensitive to fuel prices.
- By replacing its fleet of MD-80s now, it may miss out on a new generation of
fuel-efficient airplanes coming down the line
Interisland
Transpacific
International
Value
Creation
Value
Destruction