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House Democrats ascendant, set to check Trump's power

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 0623 GMT (1423 HKT) November 7, 2018

2018 Elections Primary Clean path
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FullscreenNow Playing Pelosi: Tomorrow will be...

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) waves to the crowd at a campaign rally in Houston,
Texas, U.S., October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Republicans keep Senate with Ted Cruz win

Van Jones: It's a rainbow wave

Tapper: This is not a blue wave
UNITED STATES - AUGUST 17: Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., is interviewed at
Boneshaker Coffee in Bismarck, N.D., on August 17, 2018. Cramer is running
against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., for the North Dakota Senate seat.
CNN projection: Cramer defeats Heitkamp
Rep. Marsha Blackburn speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on January
24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.
CNN projection: Blackburn elected to US Senate

Arizona's Senate race in a dead heat 'til the end

Democrats' Senate hopes may hang on Missouri

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20: U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Jacky
Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union Hall Local 226
featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20, 2018 in Las Vegas,
Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada begins today. (Photo by
Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Nevada offers a rare chance for Democrats
2018 Elections Primary Clean pathNOW PLAYING
Pelosi: Tomorrow will be a new day in America
Ilhan Omar, a candidate for State Representative for District 60B in Minnesota,
gives an acceptance speech on election night, November 8, 2016 in Minneapolis,
Minnesota.
Omar, a refugee from Somalia, is the first Somali-American Muslim woman to
hold public office. / AFP / STEPHEN MATUREN (Photo credit should read
STEPHEN MATUREN/AFP/Getty Images)
She'll be one of the first Muslim women in Congress
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 01: New York Democratic congressional candidate
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at a rally calling on Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) to
reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court on October
1, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. Sen. Flake is scheduled to give a talk at the
Forbes 30 under 30 event in Boston after recently calling for a one week pause in
the confirmation process to give the FBI more time to investigate sexual assault
allegations. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
She will be the youngest member of Congress

The Democrats who might lead the House

Gillum: Regret I couldn't bring it home

Cruz: This election was a battle of ideas

UNITED STATES - JANUARY 13: Rep. Jared Polis, D-Colo., speaks during a
House Democrats' news conference in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2015,
to discuss plans to educate immigrant communities for the implementation of the
executive actions on immigration announced by President Obama in November.
He'll be the US' first openly gay governor
The U.S. Capitol is shown in Washington on January 19, 2018.
CNN projects Democrats gain control of House
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) waves to the crowd at a campaign rally in Houston,
Texas, U.S., October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Republicans keep Senate with Ted Cruz win

Van Jones: It's a rainbow wave

Tapper: This is not a blue wave

UNITED STATES - AUGUST 17: Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., is interviewed at
Boneshaker Coffee in Bismarck, N.D., on August 17, 2018. Cramer is running
against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., for the North Dakota Senate seat.
CNN projection: Cramer defeats Heitkamp
Rep. Marsha Blackburn speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on January
24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.
CNN projection: Blackburn elected to US Senate

Arizona's Senate race in a dead heat 'til the end

Democrats' Senate hopes may hang on Missouri

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20: U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Jacky
Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union Hall Local 226
featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20, 2018 in Las Vegas,
Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada begins today. (Photo by
Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Nevada offers a rare chance for Democrats
2018 Elections Primary Clean path
Pelosi: Tomorrow will be a new day in America
Ilhan Omar, a candidate for State Representative for District 60B in Minnesota,
gives an acceptance speech on election night, November 8, 2016 in Minneapolis,
Minnesota.
Omar, a refugee from Somalia, is the first Somali-American Muslim woman to
hold public office. / AFP / STEPHEN MATUREN (Photo credit should read
STEPHEN MATUREN/AFP/Getty Images)
She'll be one of the first Muslim women in Congress
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 01: New York Democratic congressional candidate
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at a rally calling on Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) to
reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court on October
1, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. Sen. Flake is scheduled to give a talk at the
Forbes 30 under 30 event in Boston after recently calling for a one week pause in
the confirmation process to give the FBI more time to investigate sexual assault
allegations. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
She will be the youngest member of Congress

The Democrats who might lead the House

Gillum: Regret I couldn't bring it home

Cruz: This election was a battle of ideas

UNITED STATES - JANUARY 13: Rep. Jared Polis, D-Colo., speaks during a
House Democrats' news conference in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2015,
to discuss plans to educate immigrant communities for the implementation of the
executive actions on immigration announced by President Obama in November.
He'll be the US' first openly gay governor
The U.S. Capitol is shown in Washington on January 19, 2018.
CNN projects Democrats gain control of House
(CNN)Democrats on Tuesday captured the House of Representatives and are set to
exert a major institutional check on President Donald Trump, while breaking the
Republican monopoly on power and ushering in a younger, more female and more
racially diverse political generation.

But the GOP solidified their Senate majority after an acerbic midterm election that
enshrined America's deep divides and shaped a highly contentious battleground for
the stirring 2020 presidential race.
The opposite trends in the House and the Senate underscored a political and
cultural gulf among diverse and affluent liberals living in big cities and their
suburbs and the mostly, white, working class and rural conservative bloc of voters
for whom Trump remains an iconic figure.
In his first reaction to a mixed night, Trump chose to celebrate Republican
successes even though the loss of the House meant his record of busting political
convention could not defy the traditional first-term midterm curse faced by many
of his predecessors.
"Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!" he tweeted.
But the new Democratic House will pose a perilous problem for the President, who
must now brace for the novel experience of oversight from Capitol Hill with
Democratic committee chairs promising constraints on his power that the GOP
never attempted.
Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker who is in position to lead again, pledged
that the new majority would work to rein in the White House as well as to improve
health care, lower the cost of drugs and protect millions of Americans with pre-
existing conditions.
"Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans. It is about restoring the
Constitution's checks and balances to the Trump administration," Pelosi said.
Democrats could win more than 30 seats in the House, above the net gain of 23
seats that they needed to take control for the first time in eight years. But they lost
significant ground in the Senate, losing incumbents in Missouri and Indiana and
North Dakota, where Trump is still wildly popular. With several races too close to
call, the GOP advantage was expected to grow.
And liberal hearts were broken in several closely fought marquee races, including
Andrew Gillum's failure to become Florida's first African-American governor and
rising star Beto O'Rourke's failed bid to unseat Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. O'Rourke's
narrow defeat, however, proved his ability to compete even in conservative
territory and he will get buzz as a potential 2020 presidential candidate.
Democrats dare to dream again

Two years after the trauma of Trump's shock defeat of Hillary Clinton, Democrats
could dare to dream again.
They won the House, which will change hands for the third time in 12 volatile
years, by performing strongly in suburban areas where Trump's flaming rhetoric is
toxic. They also attracted a higher proportion of younger voters than at the last
midterm elections four years ago and will change the face of Washington.
"We have the beginning of a new Democratic Party, younger, browner, cooler,
more women, more veterans, can win in Michigan, can win in Pennsylvania, can
win in Ohio," said Van Jones, a CNN political commentator.
"It may not be a blue wave, it's a rainbow wave," he said.
One potential pitfall for Democrats will be to hold Trump to account without being
seen as overreaching. After all, some presidents, including Bill Clinton and Barack
Obama, had tough midterm elections but leveraged attacks by Capitol Hill foes to
help them win re-election. Trump, who loves nothing more than to identify new
enemies, will be a formidable opponent.
Within minutes of their victory being confirmed, other Democrats were already
threatening to go after Trump and to probe his business interests, including his tax
returns.
Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler, who is slated to steer the House Judiciary
Committee, warned that the election was about accountability for Trump.
"He's going to learn that he's not above the law," Nadler told CNN.
The race they ran

The contradictory message sent by voters on Tuesday night recalls Clinton's win in
the popular vote but defeat in the Electoral College and underlines the split down
the middle of American politics.
Republicans performed strongly in the deep red states where Trump mounted a
frenetic final campaign blitz and proved that despite his low approval rating he
remains a potent political force among conservatives.
In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, the President
had a positive approval rating over 50%, according to CNN's preliminary exit poll
data.
Keeping hold of the Senate is especially important for Trump, since it will allow
him and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell to press on with one of his major
legacy-building initiatives, restocking the federal judiciary with conservatives.
Tuesday's Senate victory marks another triumph for the canny Kentuckian, follow
his piloting of Trump's two nominees onto the Supreme Court to construct what
could be a generational conservative majority.
Still, Trump will also have to answer for a scorched-earth campaign on
immigration in the final days that might have helped tip the House to Democrats,
even if he can argue that his magnetism helped push other candidates, such as Rep.
Ron DeSantis, who won the Florida gubernatorial race, across the finish line.
Other Trump favorites include Marsha Blackburn, who will capture the Tennessee
Senate race, and Mike Braun, who defeated the incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe
Donnelly in Indiana. Trump also helped topple another foe, Democratic Sen. Claire
McCaskill in Missouri.
The loss of the House spells the end of a political era for Republicans who rode
into town on a Tea Party wave whipped up by fury over Obamacare and huge
government spending in the wake of the Great Recession.
The Republican majority will leave town with Obamacare still the law of the land
and with a deficit going through the roof on the back of GOP tax cuts.
In theory, the new Democratic majority would have the capacity to initiate
impeachment proceedings against Trump, should there be sufficient grounds
uncovered in Robert Mueller's special counsel investigation. Though the
Republican gains in the Senate make it even less likely that there would be a two-
thirds majority needed to convict a president and evict him from office.
But if they take a cautious approach, Democrats could face a backlash from their
own base voters who have been electrified in opposition to Trump. In exit polls,
77% of self-identified Democrats supported impeachment.
What is next for Trump?

Much will depend on how Trump reacts to what is undeniable a rebuke from voters
two years into a presidency that has unfolded in institutional chaos, torn at racial
and cultural divides and often trampled on truth and facts.
Given his history and personality, it seems unlikely the President will reflect on the
cultural warfare that he waged in the dying days of the campaign and change his
approach. Indeed, he may conclude that exactly that kind of approach was behind a
better-than-expected GOP performance in Senate races.
But critics will argue that his incessant concern with bolstering the support of his
most vehement supporters and angry tirades risks deepening the damage suffered
among college-educated female voters especially, in a way that could severely
compromise his hopes of winning re-election in two years.
The President watched the results after having dinner with his family in the
residence of the White House.
He was joined by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson, Blackstone CEO
Stephen Schwarzman and the President's ex-campaign aides, David Bossie and
Corey Lewandowski, a source familiar with the guest list said.
Two other sources close to the White House said that Trump is already blaming
retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan for the loss of the House.
"He is really angry at Ryan," one source said, on "everything."
Drew Hammill, an aide to Pelosi, tweeted Tuesday evening that the President
called Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. ET "to extend his congratulations on winning a
Democratic House Majority."