Future Airspace Strategy Consultation Forum

Royal Aeronautical Society

1 November 2010
 What is FAS?

• FAS is a strategic framework that will pull together a complex and diverse set of policy and
regulatory issues that will enable judgements to be made that are properly underpinned by
cohesive and cogent policy formulation
• This will, in turn, enable air navigation service providers (such as NATS) to create an airspace
structure that is fit for the future, effective, efficient and ensures that the UK meets any
international obligations that are placed upon it
• It is not a detailed implementation plan, although such plans will be driven by the outcome of
the FAS work

The FAS concept

FAS analysis concluded a flexible, robust strategy is required that is
responsive to Government policy on aviation

Need to modernise the airspace

Forecast growth in demand for
system, optimising outputs from
aviation
European developments

The FAS Development Need for a performance/efficency

Transport Select Committee Programme based approach for assessing and
implementing changes

Need for coordination across all

South east airspace capacity
Issues parties (civil & military) investing
in / impacted by changes

The Context For

Initial Impetus
Broader context

Developing the FAS

The FAS sets out the strategy for modernising the UK airspace system
answering the question " "How can we make the most efficient use of
airspace, to meet users requirements, within future constraints?"

Areas not in scope but key to

In scope for the FAS
delivering overall improvements

• Maximising efficiency of the system within • The efficiency of airports’ operations

safety and environmental constraints
• Integration with SES II and SESAR
• Balancing demand for airspace capacity
with supply - when and where it occurs
• Setting out the characteristics and
benefits of the future airspace system
• Roadmap for implementation of changes.
(scheduling, ground movements etc.)
• Government policy on airport development
• A detailed plan for implementation of the
proposed changes
• Alignment of industry investment plans to
implement changes
• Mechanisms to track the overall
performance of the system as changes are
implemented.

What is the FAS (not) about

UK Airspace requirements for the future and the FAS Vision
UK Airspace Requires
Modernisation to:
FAS Vision

•Deal with current hotspots of congestion

•Enable and facilitate continuous
improvement in safety Safe, efficient airspace, that has
•Implement SES proposals
the capacity to meet reasonable
demand, balances the needs of all
•Take advantage of technological
developments to improve efficiency users and mitigates the impact of
•Be responsive to Government policy and aviation on the environment
decision-making
•Ensure access to sufficient airspace for
non CAT users
•Provide flexibility within the system to
enable future development and
advancements

The FAS Vision

Completed comprehensive draft of the FAS, to be refined and agreed by
aviation stakeholders (Airports, Airlines, ANSPs, GA, NGOs etc)

Jun 09 to Oct 09 Nov 09 to Nov 10 1 Nov 10 to 7 Feb 11

Stock-take of key Produce draft for Stakeholder
issues/concepts consultation Consultation

Captures what FAS Draft strategy for Refine strategy with

seeks to address: airspace out to 2030: stakeholders:
•Demand/Supply •Characteristics of 2030 •Gain industry buy-in
•Safety airspace and commitment
•Technology & Ops. •Framework of potential •Demonstrate
AFT 1 AFT 2
•Environment changes commercial feasibility
•Policy & Reg. •Priorities and risks and plan for
implementation

Progress Update
FAS proposes significant changes to modernise the way the UK’s
airspace system operates over next 20 years, introducing greater
flexibility, cooperation and systemisation

Routeing based on ‘user preferred (4D) trajectories’

Flexible, often dynamic, management of the airspace structure

through Joint and Integrated, Civil/Military operations
Modernised 2030
Airspace System
Greater cooperation and the increased use of systems and
technology to safely manage additional complexity

Simpler airspace structures, integrated across National and

Functional Airspace Block (FAB) boundaries

Characteristics of 2030 Airspace

The overall airspace system can be separated into five areas

Communications

Navigation

Surveillance

ATM Capability

Airspace Structure

The ATM System

2011 – 14:
•Navigation – Performance-based navigation implemented in the en-route environment.
•Surveillance - Wider adoption of Mode S and ADS B.
•Communication - Data-link introduced for standard messages and clearances.
•ATM Capability - Arrival Management tools implemented in some busy terminal operations.
•Airspace Structure - Introduce a common transition altitude in controlled airspace.

2015 – 20:
•Navigation – Advanced RNP (part of SES II IR) allows aircraft to maintain the spacing during a turn.
•Surveillance – Move towards more cooperative solution ATC downloading data from the aircraft.
•Communication – Use of Data-link expanded to become primary method of communications.
•ATM Capability - Departure Management introduced. Arrival Management expands to point of departure.
•Airspace Structure - Expand free routeing / self separation areas to include lower flight levels.

2021 – 30:
•Navigation – Advanced RNP introduces vertical containment and 4D trajectory optimisation.
•Surveillance – Roll-out of Multi Static PSR to replace primary radar.
•ATM Capability – New tools to support 4D trajectory optimisation.
•Airspace Structure - Introduce dynamic (near real time) management of airspace structures.

Example Road Map

Implementation of the changes set out in the FAS aim to deliver benefits in
safety, capacity, the environment and cost effectiveness
Safety
- Performance-based
navigation allows routes to
be flown more accurately
and consistently
- Building flexibility and
resilience into the system
reduces the occurrence of
pinch points and high risk
situations
- New communications,
navigation and surveillance
technology improves
situational awareness of
users and controllers
- Simplification of the
airspace structure and
classification reduces
potential for errors,
infringements and level
busts
Capacity
- Increased navigational
accuracy enables closer
spaced routes
- Introduction of free routeing,
systemisation and ATM
support tools enables higher
volumes of traffic to be
managed
- Flexible / dynamic structures
accommodate demand when
and where it occurs
- Reduced reliance on stack
holding increases design
freedom in the busy terminal
airspace
- Integration of airspace through
FABs mean interfaces are
simpler and more efficient
- Access to sufficient airspace
for non-CAT users
Environmental Cost
- Enabling more direct - Enabling more direct routes and
routes and optimal optimal vertical profiles reduces fuel
vertical profiles reduces burn and costs
GHG emissions
- Building flexibility and resilience into
- Continuous climb and the system reduces delays that
descent procedures impose costs on users and suppliers
reduce the total number of airspace
of people impacted by
aircraft noise - Move to space-based navigation
aids removes cost of maintaining
- FAB integration expands and replacing ground infrastructure
environmental benefits
across state borders - Common, simpler approaches to
management and regulation through
- Reduced reliance on FAB integration reduces costs to
stack holding reduces users and regulators
GHG emissions from
delays in the air - Alignment of strategies across
different industry partners and
across ANSPs allows for a seamless
and more cost effective change
process as different techniques are
introduced
Benefits
The scenarios aim to model future demand for airspace capacity under
challenging circumstances against which the need for potential changes,
and the effect they may have, can be tested

Key Caveats
•The scenarios modelled in FAS are not constructed to represent the most likely future demand for
airspace capacity.
•They are indicative only and aim to satisfy two general tests, covering a range of (i) plausible but (ii)
challenging futures against the demands of which it might be reasonable for the aviation industry to
prepare.
•The scenario results highlight broadly where and when demand for airspace capacity may significantly
exceed supply under the challenging assumptions made.
•The results will be used to guide, prompt and test the proposals developed in the FAS.
•The modelling is not designed to provide detailed answers on any one particular scenario.
•The modelling is not detailed implementation planning, which will need to be conducted by ANSPs in
due course.

Airspace Demand Scenario

Overview of FAS Airspace Scenario Modelling

Scenario FAS0: Baseline case 2009 assumptions

Air Transport White Paper growth assumptions envisaged demand for airspace is
driven primarily by expansion at Heathrow and Stansted.

Scenario FAS1: Growth Disseminates to South East

No additional runways in the South East, smaller airports in the South East
expanded to serve additional demand.

Scenario FAS2: Growth Disseminates to the Regions

Smaller airports in the Regions expanded to serve additional demand.

Little divergence in results from each scenario. In all scenarios,

we need to maximise airspace efficiency.

Airspace Demand Scenarios

 Forecast growth in demand for aviation risks putting excessive 'stress'
on the airspace system, leading to sub-optimal outcomes from an
economic and environmental perspective

  UK annual flights (m)

4.5
• 3 scenarios modelled
based on ‘challenging’
4.0
demand assumptions

• 80% increase in the

3.5
demand for airspace

• Little divergence between

3.0
the scenarios, especially
pre 2020.

2.5

2.0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

FAS0 FAS2 FAS1

Demand for airspace capacity spreads across the south east (FAS 1,
illustrated below) and/or out to the regions (FAS 2)

• We will need to make optimum

FAS 1: Demand v Capacity in 2030 use of existing facilities/
airspace
Demand v Capacity %

85- • The FAS analysis identifies

85+
when and where sectors are
95+
likely to be stressed under
115+
150+
challenging assumptions –
175+ consistent outcomes under all
200+ 3 scenarios

• Building in capacity
assumptions enables us to
target proposed changes when
and where they are most
needed
The expert FAS Challenge Team reviewed the draft strategy from an
independent, external perspective

Structure / The Team considered the draft to be well structured, accessible and the
Accessibility proposed future airspace system to be well articulated

Role of the The Team believed the environment, in particular climate change,
Environment should be positioned more strongly as a driver for the FAS

The Team felt the FAS could be used as a catalyst to address airport
Role of Airports
efficiency and improving the gate-to-gate journey

Business Case / The Team stressed the importance of demonstrating a viable business
Feasibility case and commercial feasibility during engagement with industry

The Team stressed the draft must be politically aware, e.g. by aligning
Political Handling
with current Government policy and focusing on passenger benefits

FAS Challenge Team Review

Interdependency with emerging technology, the alignment of industry
investment plans and the ability to assure the safety of proposed changes
and the transition to new ways of working are 3 key risks
SESAR hinges upon a continuing willingness to reach common outcomes and the
availability of sufficient funding across many industry partners. If either of these is
The importance of
not available, SESAR may be unable to deliver the combination of technological
SESAR outputs envisaged in the timescales expected, introducing a high element
element of risk to
the modernisation of the UK airspace system.

Ability to assure The implementation of a modernised ATM system is dependent on a continuous

improvement in safety standards. There is a risk that the level of resources
safety of the new
required, or the lack of appropriate regulatory mechanisms, to assure the safety of
system and the the new system and the transition to new ways of working delays / prevents the
transition implementation of changes.

The modernisation of the airspace system proposed in the FAS requires investment
Alignment of
in complementary changes across Airports, Airlines and ANSPs. The (in)ability of
industry investment
these parties to produce consistent, viable business cases and align investment
plans plans is a key risk (exacerbated by the global economic downturn).

Risks to Modernisation of the

Airspace System
The lack of clarity and harmonisation on the strategy for developing
European FABs, the allocation of airspace capacity and environmental
priorities represent the key political risks to the implementation of FAS

There is a risk that the lack of a commonly agreed and harmonised strategy for
Agreed Harmonised FAB development across Europe limits the scope of the improvements that can be
Strategy on FABs made and the timescales within which they can be implemented. Current and
future arrangements for the UK/Ireland FAB may help to mitigate this risk

There is a risk that inability to strike the right balance on the inevitably difficult
Guidance on
issues where there is a trade-off to be made between environment considerations,
Environmental
(in particular GHG emissions and aircraft noise) leads to less effective and
Priorities inconsistent decision making.

Against the background of a tightening supply / demand balance for airspace

Allocation of capacity, the issue of creating ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ may become more acute. The
Airspace Capacity requirements to balance the needs of all users may become more challenging as
the Strategy is progressed.

Risks to Implementation
The draft Strategy will undergo formal industry consultation between Nov
2010 and Feb 2011
To Nov 2010
Incorporate feedback on
current draft. Brief FAS to
consultative groups
Nov 2010 to Feb 2011
Formal FAS Consultation
launched 1 Nov 2010.
Consultation closes 7 Feb 2011
(14 Weeks)
2011 onwards
Drive implementation through
industry collaboration in the
UK National Performance Plan

The Way Forward

 FAS Work Summary to Date

• FAS designed to meet UK goals and objectives but very much in the context of
SESII and SESAR:
• Much work still to be done
• Very keen to ensure that FAS takes account of developments in adjacent
airspace
• Need to modernise the ATC system to meet anticipated future demands while
addressing capacity, efficiency, environment and balancing the needs of users.
• Work includes four key elements:
• Involvement / support of industry
• National Performance Plans
• Flexible Use of Airspace
• FABs and other international engagement

FAS Work Summary

FAS Document
Three Parts
•Part 1 – What the FAS aims to consider,
address and achieve.
•Part 2 – The high-level characteristics of
the future airspace, framework of potential
changes and associated benefits.
•Part 3 – Ensuring safe, balanced and
effective decision-making and
implementation.
Appendices
•App 1 – Future Growth in Demand for
Airspace: Scenario Modelling Detail.
•App 2 – Technology and Operations
Roadmap.
•App 3 – Performance-Based Navigation.
•App 4 – Environmental Metrics
FAS Document
 FAS Document

Key Points Synopsis Table

A synopsis of the key points being

considered in the FAS document are
highlighted in bold blue and are
summarised, along with a reference to the
relevant paragraphs, in Table 9 at the end
of the document. There are 68 items in the
table.

Synopsis of Key Points

 FAS Document
Conclusions and
Recommendations
Recommendations Table

The conclusions and recommendations are

highlighted in bold green as they appear in
the body of the FAS document and are
summarised, along with a reference to the
relevant paragraph, in the table at the end
of the document. There are 64 items in the
table

Conclusions and Recommendations

 FAS Document

Risks to Implementation Risk Table

Risks associated with the implementation

of the FAS are highlighted in bold red in the
text of the document. A full list of risks
associated with the FAS are in the table at
the end of the document. Once the FAS is
agreed, work will be needed to make a
high-level assessment of risk proximity,
probability and impact followed by
identification of appropriate mitigations.
There are currently 35 items in the table

Risks
Consultation 1 November 2010 to 7 February 2011

CAA Webpage for FAS Consultation Document

•Full draft FAS document

•Consultation document with questions
•Airspace for Tomorrow 1 and 2
•E-mail address for questions and replies
FAS@caa.co.uk

www.caa.co.uk/FAS
E-mail:FAS@caa.co.uk

Consultation
 Consultation Questions

•Stakeholders are free to provide general, or specific, comments on the draft in

addition to the 14 questions asked in the consultation document.

•Consultations Questions are set out at paragraph 6 of the Consultation Document

under the headings of:

General
Policy and Regulation
Technology and Operations
Environment
Safety
Capacity and Demand

Consultation Questions
 Consultation – Next Steps

•Once the consultation is closed the responses will be considered.

•The draft FAS document updated accordingly.

•Aim to produce and publish the Future Airspace Strategy in the

second quarter of 2011.

•Should the consultation responses result in the requirement for a

fundamental change then further consultation may needed.

Consultation
 Consultation – Next Steps

Aviation stakeholders are invited to provide written response to this consultation by

7 February 2011 by e-mail to: FAS@caa.co.uk, or in writing to:

Tony Rapson
Policy Coordinator
Directorate of Airspace Policy
CAA House
45 – 59 Kingsway
London
WC2B 6TE

For more information call: 020 7453 6522

or e-mail FAS@caa.co.uk or tony.rapson@caa.co.uk

CONSULTATION DOCUMENTS CAN BE FOUND AT: www.caa.co.uk/FAS

Consultation
 Consultation Questions – General

•The FAS is predicated on modernisation of the UK airspace system – implementing

new operational procedures, enabled by technology, to increase the safety and
efficiency of ATM. In your opinion what are the main drivers and priorities for the
modernisation of the National ATM system that should be considered?

•From your perspective what are the most significant risks associated with the
modernisation of the airspace system to deliver safety, efficiency and environmental
benefits?

•From your perspective what are the most likely benefits to be delivered from the
modernisation of the airspace system and what should the relative priorities be?

General
 Consultation Questions – Policy and Regulation

•What are your views on the European and wider International issues of airspace
design and relative importance as set out in the Future Airspace Strategy?

Policy and Regulation

 Consultation Questions – Technology and Operations
Airspace

•The FAS aims to optimise the efficiency of the airspace system that may benefit one
airport more than another. What are you views of a strategy that may need to
balance such benefits and disbenefits and how do you think the relative merits
should be evaluated?

•What challenges do you envisage arising out of the introduction of greater airspace
sharing, in comparison to the current rigid route structure, that will enable equitable
access to future airspace that balances the needs of all users?

•The FAS proposes significant changes to the UK airspace system. How could the
current process for airspace change be strengthened to support a more robust and
efficient appraisal, consultation and implementation of the proposals set out in the
Strategy?

Tech and Ops - Airspace

 Consultation Questions – Technology and Operations
CNS

•What factors do you consider particularly important when assessing the proposed
increased use of future Communication, Navigation and Surveillance technologies
and infrastructure that underpins many of the aspirations in the FAS? How should
the CAA ensure the evolution towards this technological capability is timely and
coherent?

Tech and Ops - CNS

 Consultation Questions – Environment

•How would you assess the current emphasis on environmental matters within the
FAS in relation to safety and capacity?

•How should the FAS address the trade-off between different types of environmental
impacts as set out in the document?

Environment
 Consultation Questions – Safety

•Do you have any suggestions as to the safety protocols that should apply to the FAS
to achieve the fundamental principle that, as an absolute minimum, safety levels
must be at least maintained in making changes that benefit other aspects of the
system and, where possible, changes should contribute directly to the development
of a fundamentally safer system?

•What are your views on whether or not the FAS should attempt to set targets against
national safety KPIs for either all UK airspace, or specific hotspots as determined by
UK operators and air navigation service providers, commensurate with maintaining a
‘Just Culture’?

•Do you believe that the CAA has the appropriate policies and tools to regulate new
concepts and technologies emerging out of the SES initiative and, in particular,
SESAR?

Safety
 Consultation Questions – Capacity and Demand

•How do you view the conceptual thinking on airspace efficiency as articulated in the
FAS draft, as the basis of a way forward?

Capacity and Demand