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Is Brexit done now? Of course it isn't

edition.cnn.com

London (CNN)We have a deal! Well, sort of. A mere 872 days since the
United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the text of the
"withdrawal agreement" has been agreed between the two sides' negotiating
teams. British Prime Minister Theresa May now has to persuade her Cabinet
members to give her their blessing. Unfortunately for May, that's only where
her headaches start.
Selling the deal to the Cabinet

If she fails, then she likely has to return to Brussels to renegotiate. However,
should she win her Cabinet Brexiteers over...
Then it's back to Brussels
With the negotiating done, an emergency summit of the EU council -- the 28
member states that make up the European Union -- will be called. Or, at least
May hopes it will.
Here, the member states will agree to the text, allowing it to move to
legislative chambers of both the EU and the UK.
Owing to the fact the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has at every
stage worked closely with EU27, as they'll soon be, it's assumed that this will
be little more than a rubber-stamp exercise.
Next, to the House of Commons
This will be the trickiest part of the process, and the PM could be forgiven for
banging her head against a wall.
Having spent months dealing with the EU and seeing a succession of
government ministers resign over her handling of Brexit, she then has to face
her own Parliament. Last year, it won the right to have a vote on the draft
agreement -- something the government was keen to avoid.
This is known in the UK as the "meaningful vote" and it allows MPs the
chance to give their verdict on the contents of the withdrawal agreement and
the political agreement on the future relationship between the UK and the
EU.
Since May lost her majority in Parliament after calling a snap election in
2017, the arithmetic has looked challenging for her.

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The priority for the opposition Labour Party is to bring down May's
government and force an election, so it is virtually guaranteed to vote against
the deal. But May also knows that a significant chunk of her own MPs detest
the agreement she has struck with the EU and are ready to vote it down.
Then there's the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP, whose 10
MPs prop up her government. The DUP has been adamant from day one that
any deal that undermines Northern Ireland's place as part of the United
Kingdom would lead to them voting against the PM.
If she loses this vote, then all bets are off. The government has long
maintained that it's her deal or no deal, but in reality it could still make an
appeal to Brussels and try to get some concessions.
In theory, the government -- at this point led by May or someone else -- could
bring the new deal back to the Commons and have another go at getting it
through. Failure to do so would most likely result in the government falling, a
general election and myriad end points, including a second referendum.
But if she wins this vote:
Even more drama in the Commons
Assuming the meaningful vote passes -- a huge assumption at this point -- it
then needs to be translated into UK law. This is where the Withdrawal and
Implementation Bill comes in. That will formally make legal the terms under
which the UK will leave the European Union and enter the implementation
period.
Normally, votes on legislation allow lawmakers to add amendments and
frustrate the government. But as Brexit is an agreement between the UK
government and the EU, which doesn't have a vote in the House of
Commons, it's hard to see how MPs could influence it (though they could
make life very difficult for the UK government).
Failure of the vote to pass at this stage would presumably lead to Britain
crashing out of the EU without a deal, and a major political crisis.
Still more drama in the Commons
Next, the seldom talked-about Constitutional Reform and Governance Act of
2010, which requires the government lay before Parliament any changes to
international treaties with an explanatory memorandum.
At this stage, one would assume that having cleared Parliament this would be
a done deal. But Brexit has always been an ugly street fight. Those still
opposed to the deal going through could be expected to pick up whatever
rocks they can find and hurl them at the government.
Back to Brussels
If the deal has made it this far, the final process of ratifying the agreement
comes in the EU Parliament. Seeing as by now the agreement will have
already been agreed at Council level and in the UK's Parliament, it is hard to
see a reason for the EU Parliament to mess it up -- especially as most in
Brussels want Brexit out of the way so they can concentrate on the European
elections, taking place next year. But Brexit, as you might have gathered by
now, can be weird. However, assuming this passes:
Bong! 29 March 2019 -- Brexit day

Despite the wishes of many hardline Brexiteers, Big Ben will not chime in
the UK's new era of independence.
But should that day be marked by the draft agreement the Cabinet is thought
to be shown on Wednesday this week, those Brexiteers will likely consider
themselves to have lost the battle and have little to celebrate.

A Search in Fire-Ravaged California for What No One Wants to Find

www.nytimes.com
5 mins read
Image
A search-and-rescue team looked for remains in Paradise, Calif., on
Tuesday.CreditCreditJim Wilson/The New York Times
PARADISE, Calif. — It is a measure of how frequent and deadly wildfires
have become in California that identifying badly burned remains has become
an area of expertise. Once again cadaver dogs have been summoned, forensic
dental experts will follow and coroners and anthropologists are using their
experience from previous wildfires to locate the victims.
One search team on Tuesday toured the foundation of a flattened home in this
singed stretch of Paradise, Calif. Carefully they circled the charred bathtub,
the melted kitchen floor, the skeletal playground — poking everywhere with
long metal poles.
In white hazmat suits and red hard hats, the group of specialists was
searching for two things no one wants to find: bodies and bones.
“Checked the bathroom,” Tess Koleczek said. “That’s where I would
probably go, to the bathroom, with the water running as long as I could.”

Scanning the sunken ground, she poked at the debris. “The problem is,” she
said, “how do you tell a bone from a rock at a certain point?”
At least 42 people were killed in the Camp Fire, the deadliest wildfire in
California history, and many more are missing.

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[Parts of California look like a combat zone.]

“We don’t want to be good at this, but it’s an unfortunate reality of what has
gone on in Northern California,” said Sgt. Ray Kelly, a spokesman for the
Alameda County Sheriff’s Office, which has a search team working in
Paradise.
Authorities warned it could be a long process.
“We’ve done this before,” said Jason Finney, 42, a captain with the Butte
County Fire Department, after he pulled onto one fire-ravaged street on
Tuesday. The difference this time, he said, was the scale. “But not with this
many people, in this large an area, with so many structures and so many
vehicles.”
Under mandatory evacuation since the fire, Paradise is now emptied of its
residents. Emergency vehicles and trucks from the electric utility drove
through the smokey haze still hanging over the town. Black hearses traveled
to and from the main hospital, their hazard lights flashing. It’s just one of the
places where two major fires have ravaged entire communities up and down
the state.

The Camp Fire, which still burns in the hills and gullies around Paradise, is
only 30 percent contained. In Southern California, firefighters continued to
battle the Woolsey Fire, which is threatening 57,000 buildings west of Los
Angeles and has already destroyed hundreds of houses in Malibu and
surrounding areas. Tens of thousands of residents have evacuated their
homes.

Image
Investigators evaluated a fragment that they determined was part of a
gun.CreditJim Wilson/The New York Times
Experts fear that many of the remains they are seeking will be burned beyond
recognition and perhaps beyond identification, known in the jargon of
specialists as cremains.
Drawing on their experience during the deadly wildfires last year in the wine
country of Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties, search teams will be
using cadaver dogs.
“There’s really no technology that is available other than the dog’s nose to
identify areas where these remains might be,” Sergeant Kelly said.
In many of the destroyed homes in Paradise the chimney is the only structure
left standing. With or without dogs, finding remains is a low-tech process,
experts say.
“As advanced as we are, we are literally down to buckets and shovels,”
Sergeant Kelly said.
Around 15 search-and-rescue teams met in the parking lot of the local
bowling alley Tuesday morning to begin their grim task, fanning out across
the region, said Sgt. Steve Collins of the Butte County Sheriff’s Department.

The search teams include many volunteers and each team was assigned an
anthropologist with the expertise to distinguish human from animal remains.
Teams were also accompanied by Cal Fire firefighters who were called on to
help with specific tasks: removing heavy debris, entering particularly
dangerous areas, or using thermal imaging technology to determine if a home
was still too hot to enter.
Among the specialists called on to assist in the identification of victims is Jim
Wood, an expert in forensic odontology, the use of dental records to match
teeth found in the ashes.
Mr. Wood, who is also a representative in the California State Assembly,
says dental records were crucial in identifying the victims of the wine country
fires last year. Officials are checking dental clinics in Paradise, he said, to see
how many records survived the fires.
“The trick is getting the records,” he said.
“In some of the identifications last year I only had two or three teeth,” Mr.
Wood said. “They are extremely fragile and that becomes another part of the
challenge.”
Mr. Wood said hip replacements and other implanted medical devices
resilient to fire were also helpful identifying victims in last year’s fires.

DNA may also play an important role, he said. The Butte County sheriff,
Kory L. Honea, announced at the beginning of the week that the county had
requested advanced DNA machinery to help identify remains.

Image

A bathtub was one of the few recognizable items in the wreckage.CreditJim

Wilson/The New York Times
“The technology for DNA has really come a long way,” Mr. Wood said. “We
are able to get DNA profiles from remains that five years ago we couldn’t.”
Once a body was identified, the search team calls a coroner’s team. On
Tuesday, the county was working with 13 teams from around the region.
Those teams remove the bodies, which are sent to Sacramento County, where
experts will try to identify them.
On Tuesday, Ms. Koleczek and other members of the team, called A-4,
continued to make their way through a home left with little but a hollowed-
out trampoline.
Across the street, a sign was tacked to a tree. “Slow down!” it read.
“Children playing. Be careful!”
Team A-4, like others across the region, wore white booties over their boots
and white masks over their faces, trying to keep the ash from their nostrils
and lungs.
Paradise is strewn with construction nails, broken glass, downed power lines
and brittle tree limbs waiting to fall.

Search teams are also warned to be aware of septic tanks. Earlier this week
the earth gave way under a search worker, his leg falling through the septic
lid.
John Sutter, the group’s leader, had told the team to pay attention to anything
that looked like a pot. An apparent pot he said, was sometimes a skull.
Ms. Koleczek pulled a twisted object from the earth. Bone? She wondered.
Mr. Sutter came over.
Old gun barrel, they determined. Mr. Sutter gathered his group, counting
them like students who could suddenly be lost in the chaos.“1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
7,” he said. They moved on.
Many of those combing for remains were retired search-and-rescue workers
— about the same age as the missing people they sought. At 3 p.m. Ken
Sanders, 75, had just finished combing ten homes in Ridgewood Mobile
Home Park, a retirement community on the east side of Paradise.
He stood outside his van in his white safety suit, rested his search pole
against the vehicle, and said he was a volunteer from Calaveras County.
“The motto of search and rescue is: That others may live,” he said.
“We serve so that others may live,” he went on. “Families need closure.”

A Week After the Election, Democratic Gains Grow Stronger

www.nytimes.com
7 mins read
The 2018 midterm election looked last Tuesday like a serious but not
crippling setback for Republicans, yet the picture has grown grimmer since
then as a more complete tally of votes has come in across the country.
What looked at first like a modest Democratic majority in the House has
grown into a stronger one: The party has gained 32 seats so far and appears
on track to gain between 35 and 40 once all the counting is complete.
And Democratic losses in the Senate look less serious than they did a week
ago, after Kyrsten Sinema was declared the winner in Arizona on Monday. It
now looks like Democrats are likely to lose a net of one or two seats, rather
than three or four as they feared last Tuesday.
The underlying shifts in the electorate suggest President Trump may have to
walk a precarious path to re-election in 2020, as several Midwestern states he
won in 2016 threaten to slip away, and once-red states in the Southwest turn a
purpler hue. The president’s strategy of sowing racial division and stoking
alarm about immigration failed to lift his party, and Democratic messaging
about health care undercut the benefit Republicans hoped to gain from a
strong economy.

David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises congressional leaders, said

his party should not use victories in the Senate to paper over severe losses
with women, young people, independent voters and Latino voters, and
Democratic gains with suburbanites and seniors.
“We didn’t lose the Senate, but losing by the margins that we did with a lot of
these groups is unsustainable,” Mr. Winston said.

There are warning signs for Democrats, too: Mr. Trump’s party remains
ascendant in rural America, giving Republicans a durable advantage in the
Senate, where less-populous states have influence greatly disproportionate to
their voting numbers. If Democrats cannot cut into Republicans’ strength in
areas far from major cities, they may struggle mightily to take back the upper
chamber in 2020.
And Republicans demonstrated a tenacious hold on two of the country’s
biggest swing states, Ohio and Florida, giving Mr. Trump an important
foothold on the presidential map.

Midterms are imperfect guideposts for presidential elections: In 2010,

Democrats were defeated across Midwestern swing states and Florida and
lost control of the House, only to prevail convincingly in the presidential race
two years later. But for now, the big picture of the 2018 midterms is of a
country in political flux, changing primarily to Mr. Trump’s disadvantage.

Image
Supporters listened to Harley Rouda speak at his election night party in
Newport Beach, Calif. Mr. Rouda, a Democrat, unseated longtime incumbent
Representative Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican.CreditSam Hodgson for The
New York Times
Straddling Clinton and Trump districts
At the start of the 2018 election, the shortest path to a Democratic House
majority appeared to run through Republican-held districts where Hillary
Clinton won more votes than Mr. Trump in 2016. Democrats did exceedingly
well in those districts and may ultimately capture about 20 of them, chiefly in
suburban areas of states like California, Texas, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
But just as important to the Democratic takeover were at least 17 districts
where Mr. Trump defeated Mrs. Clinton, and where voters elected a
Democratic member of Congress last week. These seats make up about half
of the Democrats’ House gains, allowing them to achieve not just the 23-seat
gain they needed for a bare majority but to win control by a comfortable
margin.
By winning a broader array of districts, beyond just Clinton-voting seats,
Democrats proved that they could build a stronger coalition than they did in
2016 and chip away at the margins of Mr. Trump’s electoral base.
Still, Democrats made few inroads into solidly conservative districts. The
Trump-voting seats they won were predominantly in the suburbs and exurbs,
with enough moderate and college-educated voters to offset Republicans’
strength in the districts’ rural precincts. Democrats may also have a tougher
time winning some of these districts in a presidential year, when voter turnout
is even higher and partisan polarization can make it even harder for
politicians to win on the opposing camp’s traditional turf.

In some cases, the districts themselves were starkly divided: In a

conservative-leaning district outside Richmond, Va., Abigail Spanberger, a
Democrat, ousted Representative Dave Brat on the strength of suburban
voters despite losing the district’s less densely settled stretches. In a rural
New Mexico district that voted strongly for Mr. Trump, Xochitl Torres
Small, a Democrat, won an open seat despite losing many of its far-flung
counties, because she assembled muscular support in the outer suburbs of
Albuquerque and the area around Las Cruces, the state’s second-largest city.

Image

Democrats won all statewide races in Nevada, including a governorship that

had eluded them since 1994.CreditIsaac Brekken for The New York Times
The Sun Belt is looking purple
The texture of the midterm results has changed most starkly over the last
week in the West, as slow-counting states like Arizona and California have
tallied their ballots. Democrats have captured Republican-held Senate seats in
Nevada and Arizona, partially offsetting their losses in the heavily white,
conservative states where Republicans unseated Democratic senators.
And in California, what looked like a night of incremental Democratic gains
has turned into a slow-motion rout for the G.O.P. Republicans are on track to
lose between four and seven seats there, chiefly in the suburbs of Southern
California, where even Representative Dana Rohrabacher, a 30-year
incumbent, went down in defeat.
Further down the ballot, there were signs of Democratic gains in historically
Republican parts of the Southwest: In Arizona, where Republicans have
dominated state politics, Democrats also captured the office of education
superintendent, and a second important statewide election — for secretary of
state — was still too close to call a week into the count. In Nevada, where
Democrats had not won a governor’s race since 1994, they captured the
governorship and the offices of lieutenant governor, attorney general, state
treasurer and state controller.
In Texas, Democrats gained at least a dozen seats in the Statehouse and,
despite partisan gerrymandering, picked up two congressional seats. Five
Republican congressional candidates there who were strongly favored to win
ultimately prevailed with less than 52 percent of the vote.
Texas and Arizona are unlikely to be blue states anytime soon, but after years
of tilting at the Southwest with little to show for it, Democrats saw real signs
that the region is becoming a battleground.
Grant Woods, a former Republican state attorney general in Arizona who
recently registered as a Democrat, said Mr. Trump and the Republican Party
had moved too far right for voters in the Southwest. Mr. Woods, who is
considering a run for Senate in 2020, said the midterm results were
encouraging.

“The extremism of the current Republican Party is a losing strategy for the
future,” Mr. Woods said. “In the Southwest in particular, where we’re talking
about a diverse population and, increasingly, a younger population, people
just aren’t going to put up with it.”

Image
A campaign rally to support Mike Braun, a Republican Senate candidate, in
Fort Wayne, Ind., the day before the election. Mr. Braun easily defeated
Senator Joe Donnelly, a Democrat.CreditDoug Mills/The New York Times
A rift in the Midwest
The best news of the night for Mr. Trump may have been his party’s triumph
in Ohio. Republicans won the governorship there, along with every partisan
statewide election, save one: the Senate race, in which Sherrod Brown, a
populist Democrat, was elected to a third term. Historically a swing state,
Ohio has been trending steadily toward Republicans and appears fairly secure
in Mr. Trump’s column at the start of the 2020 campaign.
Two other conservative-leaning states in the Midwest, Indiana and Iowa,
showed similar allegiance to the G.O.P., though Democrats picked up a pair
of House seats in Iowa.
Jon Husted, a Republican former speaker of the Ohio House who was elected
lieutenant governor, said Democrats in the state were not strong enough in
the cities to overcome Republicans’ popularity with rural voters.
“What margins they do run up, we’re able to more than make up in the rural
counties,” Mr. Husted said.
Other Midwestern swing states, however, were a mirror image of Ohio, with
Democrats achieving sweeping wins across Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Minnesota. Two years after Mr. Trump won upset victories in
three of those states and came close to capturing the fourth — Minnesota —
Democrats won every partisan statewide office on the ballot in all of them;
they even ousted Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin and elected Representative
Keith Ellison, an activist liberal who faced accusations of domestic abuse, to
the office of attorney general in Minnesota.

The division in the Midwest — between more urban, diverse states and more
rural, agricultural states — presents challenges for both parties. Democrats
will have a narrower path to the presidency nationwide as long as Ohio leans
red. But the peril may be greater for Mr. Trump, who could have difficulty in
2020 replicating the regional sweep that made him president in the first place.

Image

Democrats won two Republican-held seats in Texas, including one in the

suburbs of Dallas, where Colin Allred defeated Representative Pete
Sessions.CreditTamir Kalifa for The New York Times
Gerrymandering mattered — a lot
Republican losses in the House were not nearly as steep as they might have
been without the help of favorably drawn congressional districts. Even as
Democrats gained at least 32 seats and won a clear majority of the popular
vote, they failed to capture even a single seat in three big states with
aggressively gerrymandered lines: Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
In two other big, gerrymandered states, Democrats gained seats — but only a
few. They took two Republican-held seats each in Texas and Michigan, but
came painfully close in more than half a dozen others where partisan maps
insulated Republicans from voters’ anger.
Without the maps on their side, it is easy to imagine Republicans having lost
more than 50 House seats. And in states with more neutral maps, Democrats
fared far better.
Most illustrative may have been Pennsylvania, where in January a state court
struck down the congressional district lines and ordered them redrawn. At the
start of the last Congress, under a gerrymandered map, Republicans held 13
of Pennsylvania’s 18 House seats. After the redraw and the election, the
House delegation will be split evenly — nine seats for each party.
In most states, Republicans are likely to benefit from these maps again in
2020, but that may be the last time the lines are engineered so helpfully. With
the inauguration of Democratic governors in states like Wisconsin and
Michigan, Republicans will not have a free hand in redistricting after the
2020 census.

Asia Bibi case shows the danger of courting religious extremists

edition.cnn.com

By Rahila Gupta

Updated 2055 GMT (0455 HKT) November 13, 2018

Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. Find out what's happening in the world
as it unfolds.

Rahila Gupta is a freelance journalist and writer. Her books include

"Enslaved: The New British Slavery." Follow her on Twitter: @RahilaG. The
opinions expressed in this commentary are solely hers.

How did this happen in a so-called democracy like Pakistan? Ever since the
military dictator Zia ul Haq began the Islamisation process of Pakistan in the
1980s, religious leaders have acquired unprecedented power. Saiful Malook,
who I interviewed in late 2017 while he was preparing Asia's case, lays the
blame firmly on Zia ul Haq.
"He made them ministers, gave them cars, built them bungalows, got them
involved in government. Before that the religious leaders were quite weak,
now they are stakeholders in government and in corruption."
It was Zia ul Haq who revived the dormant British law on blasphemy by
increasing the maximum penalty from 10 years to death. Yet the irony is that
to date no one has been executed by the state on the charge of blasphemy, but
many have been killed by the mob -- one estimate is 75.
It is also this mob rule that prevents the quick dispatch of blasphemy cases in
the lower courts, even when the evidence provided is as flimsy as a flight of
fantasy.

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The political strategy of the extremists has been to pack out the courts at
every blasphemy hearing so that judges are reduced to nervous wrecks and
refuse to take on cases, pleading ill health.
If they do hear the cases, they simply do not acquit defendants. Lower-court
judges are typically less educated and more sympathetic to the religious
lobby.
Saiful Malook recounts the story of the judge who sentenced Asia Bibi to
death, who has preserved the pen which he used to sign off her judgment as a
source of pride.
The higher up you go in the Pakistani legal system, the more likely you are to
get justice because judges further up the hierarchy are paid well and have
security provided by the state.
Of course, even this security can turn out to be illusory as Salman Taseer,
Governor of Punjab, was to discover when he was killed by his own guard in
2011 for visiting Asia in prison and calling for her to be released.
The few lawyers who take on these life-threatening cases command huge
fees. Many of the blasphemy victims, like Asia, are just too poor to go all the
way up to the Supreme Court and languish for years in prison.
But Asia caught the public imagination and donations poured into her
campaign from all over the world. Rights organizations like Amnesty
International also stepped in to help fund some of the legal fees.
Although the leadership of subsequent governments after Zia has been drawn
from the liberal elites whose personal lives have eschewed religion to a
greater or lesser degree, all of them, except General Pervez Musharraf, have
relied on religious parties for their power. It was a strategy of appeasement
and vote garnering.
Benazir Bhutto was the great feminist hope when she succeeded Zia but
failed to overturn his Hudood ordinances, which, for example, required
women to produce four witnesses to prove rape to avoid charges of adultery.
Nawaz Sharif condemned religious violence against minorities but did very
little to reverse the sharification of Pakistan.
Musharraf cultivated an image of Enlightened moderation, introduced some
women-friendly laws and pushed back against religious forces.
However, Afiya Zia, a Pakistani activist and academic, in her new book
"Faith and Feminism in Pakistan" says his policies were "more symbolic than
transformative" while the backlash of radical conservatism against women
went unchecked.
Imran Khan, elected to power recently, and yet to shake off his image as
playboy of the Western world, plays a similarly duplicitous game.
He has valorized the Pakistani Taliban for standing against US imperialism,
has aligned with religious-right parties like Jamaat-e-Islami at provincial
level, has expressed his support for blasphemy laws, publicly supports the
acquittal of Asia Bibi and then behind the scenes, does a deal with TLP
accepting its demand for a review petition of the Supreme Court judgment
and to keep Asia Bibi in the country.

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom produces an annual

report surveying the state of religious freedoms across the world. Pakistan
has appeared regularly as a "Country of Particular Concern" and is the only
country to be put on a special watch list in its 2018 annual report.
The religious right has so far not managed to win power at the ballot box, but
its ability to rouse a rabble and paralyze the country has given it a
disproportionate and vicious grip on what's left of democracy in Pakistan.
Trump, take note: if you court religious extremists, you are in danger of
letting mobs weaken democracy.