October 06, 2017

DIWALI PICKS 2017

IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd 1 www.idbidirect.in
 Diwali Picks

Stock Market Cap CMP Target Upside

(Rs mn) (Rs) (Rs) Potential

BATAINDIA 93,808 739 925 25%+

CYIENT 57,311 510 645 26%+
LT 16,00,800 1,142 1425 24%+

MANAPPURAM 85,290 101 142 40%+

MHRIL 45,839 343 520 51%+

SUNDRAMFAST 94,768 450 590 31%+
TRENT 1,02,935 313 415 32%+
Note: Holding period is 12 months
IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd 2 www.idbidirect.in
 Bata India Ltd.
CMP: Rs739 TARGET: Rs925
Bata (BATA) has four strategically located manufacturing units with a production capacity of 21mn pairs of footwear per annum.
Further, with traded model, company has sold 47mn pairs in FY17. The retail space spans across 2.62mn sq.ft across India,
spread across 1293 stores.
Key Triggers:
 SSSG remains the key driver: The shift from basic-need-based category to evolving-fashion is visible in same stores sales
growth (SSSG). BATA’s retail business, which is more than four-fifths of revenue, grew by 15%. Thanks to 10% SSSG in
Q1FY18, the additional flip in revenue could come from new store addition.
 Switch to organized from unorganized: With GST and consumer preference for evolving fashion, the growth range of 7-9% is
given, as per our estimates. The shift from non-branded to branded products is another catalyst. Further, presence in tier II
and III towns will give the incremental delta.
 Premium products—an understated driver: Hush Puppies, the prominent brand, continues to reach wide. The realization
per unit is Rs2.5k in men footwear segment. The women footwear market, incidentally, is just above Rs1.5k. However, this
could change. Bata finds women footwear market to be more alluring. And the reasons are widely acceptable: the women
footwear are growing at 20% CAGR from a lower base, contrary to men’s footwear, where the growth has petered out to
10% CAGR. With the launch of premium-end women footwear collection, the trend could continue.
Valuation: If the current trend is to sustain, the revenue and PAT could grow at a CAGR of 12% and 24% over the next two fiscals.
The stock, however, is trading at 52.2x its FY2019E earnings. Yet this does not capture the earnings growth potential, in our view.

Financial snapshot (Rs mn)

Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

FY14 20,652 2,665 12.9 1,907 15.4 47.1 25.4 24.8 24.9
FY15 21,989 2,035 9.3 1,918 13.2 54.7 33.3 25.6 24.2
FY16 24,154 2,017 8.3 2,176 13.4 54.2 33.6 19.4 19.5
FY17 24,672 2,127 8.6 1,587 13.9 52.2 31.9 12.5 12.7

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 Cyient Ltd.
CMP: Rs510 TARGET: Rs645
Cyient Limited, formerly Infotech Enterprises Limited, is engaged in providing software-enabled engineering and Geographic
Information System (GIS) services. The Company's segments include Data & Network Operations (DNO); Engineering,
Manufacturing, Industrial Products (EMI), and Product Realisation (PR).
Key Triggers:
 Cyient has all the ingredients of a good compounding story: Strong management, presence in ER&D space, focus on S3 -
Services, Systems and Solutions – to differentiate itself as a design-build-maintain partner and strong focus on M&A.
 Focus on S3 strategy is playing out well: Cyient has never been a run-of-the-mill IT services company with presence
across ER&D and Geospatial space. Importantly Cyient has been proactive in expanding its presence through the S3
strategy. We believe that the worst is over for the DLM business and it is geared for 20%+ growth in FY18/19. This would
also enable Cyient to improve the profitability of this segment which would in-turn improve company’s profitability. We
are confident the Cyient’s S3 strategy would further strengthen its position as a strategic vendor for its clients.
 Expect Cyient to outperform the sector over FY18/19: Cyient’s FY18 outlook includes double digit growth for the services
business, 20%+ growth in DLM and operating margin improvement of 50bps YoY. We are confident that Cyient would
achieve the same and expect it to outperform the sector and forecast FY17-19E revenue (US$)/EPS CAGR of 13%/13.9%.
We are confident of improvement in EBIT margin from Q2 and forecast FY18 EBIT margin to improve by 30bps to 11.1%.
Valuation: At current market price, Cyient is trading at a P/E multiple of 14x/12x on FY18/FY19E which is towards the lower
end of the 1yr forward PER range of 10x-16x. Further it has surplus cash of ~Rs75/sh. Thus we believe that the stock has
strong re-rating potential. M&A would provide upside trigger to our forecast.
Financial snapshot (Rs mn)
Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
FY14 22,064 4,101 18.6 2,660 23.8 21.5 12.2 18.3 23.2

FY15 27,359 4,014 14.7 3,534 31.5 16.3 13.0 20.6 18.5

FY16 30,955 4,247 13.7 3,349 29.8 17.2 12.2 17.8 16.5

FY17 36,066 4,848 13.4 3,699 32.8 15.6 10.3 18.4 17.6

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 Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
CMP: Rs1142 TARGET: Rs1425
Larsen & Toubro Limited (LT) is a technology, engineering, construction and manufacturing company. The Company's segments
include activities of Power, Infrastructure, Electrical & Electronics, Engineering Construction, Metallurgical & Material Handling.
More than seven decades of a strong presence, customer-focused approach and the continuous quest for world-class quality
have enabled it to attain and sustain leadership in all its major lines of business.
Key Triggers :
 Government-led Rail orders are moving up: LT has won the orders awarded under the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor.
With other DFCC’s LT is expected to do well. Further, the Indian Railways has planned a capex of Rs1.3trn in FY18 and the
trend is expected to be on the higher side. LT has better prospects of winning an award. Even before metro policy, rail
projects are currently under execution in 12 cities. Another 20 cities are building up metros. The total amount entailed would
exceed $40bn, by conservative estimates. High-margin underground metro rail projects have lesser competitive intensity.
 Water and Transmission is expected to swell the order backlog: The increasing trend of water segment, a 25% CAGR growth
in revenues, over the last few years will add up to the order book. With transmission gaining traction through Saubhagya
Scheme, LT will benefit from Govt’s aims to lower power connectivity, lower target of AT&C losses and village electrification.
 INVIT for Road SPVs could stem IDPL losses to a large extent: The board has approved LT to issue an INVIT. With this, 13
operational road assets could be removed from the balance sheet. LT is waiting for SEBI to issue an in-principle approval.

Valuation: We forecast 12% CAGR in revenues till FY19. We anticipate a strong margin recovery through power, heavy
engineering, electrical and automation and IDPL. Thereby, we believe EBITDA should grow by 20% CAGR over the next two
fiscals.
Financial snapshot (Rs mn)
Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) EPS Growth (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

FY14 851,284 107,543 12.6 45,680 32 -4.8 35.4 22.2 11.2 7.2

FY15 920,046 113,107 12.3 47,648 34 8.5 34 21.9 12.1 7.0

FY16 1,026,317 123,339 12 50,905 36 6.8 31.9 20.8 12.0 7.2

FY17 1,087,481 108,050 9.9 60,412 43 18.7 26.8 18.1 13.1 5.1

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 Manappuram Finance Ltd.
CMP: Rs101 TARGET: Rs142

Manappuram Finance Limited is an NBFC with second highest AUM as regards Gold loans (Rs107 bn) in the listed space. It has
also been growing its presence across Microfinance, Housing Finance, Vehicle Finance and other aspects of consumer finance.

Key Triggers:
 Diversification is working: Manappuram Finance entered the non-Gold finance segments in FY14. It has been able to
grow these segments to 19.8% of AUM as of Q1FY18 with Asirwad Microfinance constituting the significant proportion
with 13.7% of over-all AUM. This diversification has enabled the company to reduce both dependence on gold finance
and has opened new segments for growth.

 NPAs have been easing: Post a spike in gross NPA/ net NPA (2%/1.7%) in FY17 Manappuram Finance has seen a sharp
improvement in Q1FY18 where both gross NPA / net NPA declined to 1.1%/0.9%.

 Manappuram to benefit from the shift from informal to formal and steady gold price outlook: Specialised NBFCs have
operational advantages over banks, and as a consequence they continue to win market share. The shift from the
unorganised sector to organised sector is expected to gain traction due to Aadhaar, Jan Dhan and demonetisation. Also,
long-term outlook for gold prices remain steady.

Valuation: The stock is trading at P/BV of 2.1x/1.9x FY18/19E with a strong RoE of 22%.

Financial snapshot (Rs mn)

Year NII Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) BV (Rs) PE (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoE (%) GNPA (%) NNPA (%)

FY14 10,494 2,260 2.7 30 36.3 3.3 9.2 1.9 1.2 1.0

FY15 11,111 2,713 3.2 31 30.3 3.1 10.6 2.4 1.2 1.0

FY16 14,009 3,534 4.0 33 24.4 3.0 12.6 2.9 1.0 0.7

FY17 21,932 7,559 8.6 40 11.3 2.4 24.0 5.8 2.0 1.7

IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd 6 www.idbidirect.in

 Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd.
CMP: Rs343 TARGET: Rs520
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited(MHRIL) operates in leisure hospitality industry. The Company is engaged in the
business of sale of Vacation Ownership and other related services in India. The Company's principal activities include income
from sale of Vacation Ownership (VO); annual subscription fee from VO members, and income from sale of food and
beverages.
Key Triggers:
 Rising focus on digital and referral channels: Digital and referral channels to target clientele will improve the quality of
revenue. Currently, they are 50% in the sales mix. They could inch-up to 55-60%. Shoring up annuity income continues to
be on card as well. In digital and referral channels, the leads have maximum conversion potential, company opines. With
this, MHRL will continue to reap the benefits of Indian SEC A+ & A customers.
 Inventory acquisition is growing stronger: MHRL has stepped up its room expansion plans. MHRL plans to add ~600 rooms
over next two years. The capacity addition plans remains as Naldhera: 110; Asanora: 250; Ashtamudi: 100; and Kandaghat:
150. With 11% CAGR in inventory growth—from 2,049 in FY12 to 3,152 in FY17, this target should be possible. By Q1FY18,
MHRL successfully added 4,005 members, up 10.3% YoY.
 Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities to add new members: The Company expects strong membership additions over the next couple of
years by penetrating into tier-2 and tier-3 cities. This would entail an expansion over the next two years with capex of ~
Rs6bn. With a relatively lower degree of competitive intensity, MHRL’s focus on acquiring strategic fit of members will
improve profitability and cash from operations.
Valuation: MHRL strategic focus continues to be acquiring rooms on lease. This has helped company to clock revenue in excess
of Rs11bn. We anticipate 9% revenue CAGR in VO income for years to come. Also, MHRL could gain 19% revenue CAGR in
resorts and ASF over the next two years. With cost control and better quality of members, the stock promises a brighter
outlook.
Financial snapshot (Rs mn)
Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

FY14 8,164 1,212 14.8 870 6.6 51.8 35.1 12.7 12.6
FY 15 7,509 546 7.3 812 7.3 47.1 77.9 10.9 10.3
FY16 14,842 1,657 11.2 868 6.5 52.7 25.7 14.1 9.8
FY17 21,630 2,160 10.0 1,486 11.2 30.5 19.7 26.9 12.6

IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd 7 www.idbidirect.in

 Sundram Fasteners Ltd.
CMP: Rs450 TARGET: Rs590

Sundram Fasteners Limited (Sundram) is headquartered in Chennai. It is a part of the $5 bn TVS group. The company has an
established track record of 40 years in manufacturing auto parts and components such as high tensile fasteners , powder metal
components , cold extruded parts , hot forged parts , radiator caps, automotive pumps, gear shifters etc. The company’s
clientele includes reputed companies such as Ashok Leyland, M&M, Tata Motors, Daimler, Siemens.

Key Triggers:
 India – a hub for auto: India is becoming a hub for auto components manufacturing with major global auto companies like
Volkswagen, Suzuki, General Motors, Mercedes, etc. setting up base in India.
 Industry to witness strong growth: Auto Components Manufacturers Association (ACMA) expects the Indian auto
components industry to reach a size of US $100 bn by FY20. This indicates huge scope for the auto components industry
including Sundram as it is one of the leading manufacturers of fasteners.
 Sundaram, well-placed to grow: Given the attractive industry dynamics, the company is expanding capacities of certain
products and setting up manufacturing facilities for newer product range to meet the rising demand for its products under
the able leadership of Mr. Suresh Krishna (CMD).

Valuation: The stock is currently trading at a FY19 PE multiple of 19x (based on Bloomberg consensus estimate). We have a
positive view on the stock.

Financial snapshot (Rs mn)

Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

FY14 26,818 2,901 10.8 1,208 5.8 8.4 6.3 16.0 9.6
FY15 31,561 3,765 11.9 1,312 6.3 23.9 12.8 15.6 9.5
FY16 32,549 3,850 11.8 1,260 6.0 25.3 11.3 13.8 9.2
FY17 32,900 5,965 18.1 3,384 16.1 43.1 15.8 30.9 21.1

IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd 8 www.idbidirect.in

 Trent Ltd.
CMP: Rs313 TARGET: Rs415

The company was established in 1998 and part of the Tata group, Trent operates Westside, one of India’s largest and fastest
growing retail chains; Star Bazaar, a hypermarket chain and Landmark a family entertainment format store.

Key Triggers:
 Westside a flagship store: Trent’s flagship format Westside offers a wide range of fashion products for men, women and
children, décor, furnishing and a range of home accessories.
 Growth plans to develop Westside in place: Trent believes that the opportunity to expand Westside in newer cities is
immense, and it has an in-house property expert team that helps identify strategic locations after identifying the potential
market. In FY17, Trent embarked on an aggressive growth strategy under the Westside banner. To enhance customer
experience, seven stores under Westside were refurbished.
 Restructuring initiatives to bear fruits: The company’s strategy to expand high ROCE Westside stores, closing loss-making
Landmark stores and rightsizing of Star Bazaar (JV with Tesco Plc) are likely to improve its financial performance over the
coming years. These opportunities place Trent at an inflection point. We believe that execution of these strategies would
lead to strong improvement in Trent’s financials.

Valuation: The stock is currently trading at a FY19 PE multiple of 55x (based on Bloomberg consensus estimate). We have a
positive view on the stock.

Financial snapshot (Rs mn)

Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

FY14 23,330 167 0.7 (186) (0.6) NA 216.3 (1.7) (12.3)

FY15 22,843 761 3.3 1,293 3.9 37.1 64.3 10.7 9.4
FY16 15,893 990 6.2 550 1.8 34.8 54.1 3.8 5.0
FY17 18,339 1,317 7.2 849 1.8 113.5 68.6 5.6 6.1

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 IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd.

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 Disclosures and Analyst Information

Research Head
A. K. Prabhakar ak.prabhakar@idbicapital.com
Analyst
Sonal Parmar sonal.parmar@idbicapital.com

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