Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1 Nomination Validation
2 Booking Validation
3 PPPP
4 Navi
1
Gas Networks
. Passive elements:
I Pipelines
I Resistors
. Active elements:
I Valves
I Control valves
I Compressors
Open Grid Europe, Germany
2
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Validating Nominations
3
Using Optimization Rather Than Simulation
Simulation
. allows very accurate gas physics
models
. relies on human experience for
control for active devices
. is thus inappropriate to determine
infeasibility of a nomination
4
Using Optimization Rather Than Simulation
Simulation Optimization
. allows very accurate gas physics . works on simplified models of gas
models physics
. relies on human experience for . automatically finds settings for active
control for active devices devices
. is thus inappropriate to determine . eventually proves infeasibility of an
infeasibility of a nomination infeasible nomination
4
Using Optimization Rather Than Simulation
Simulation Optimization
. allows very accurate gas physics . works on simplified models of gas
models physics
. relies on human experience for . automatically finds settings for active
control for active devices devices
. is thus inappropriate to determine . eventually proves infeasibility of an
infeasibility of a nomination infeasible nomination
Simulation A Optimization A
Simulation B Optimization B
4
Model Components
Model components:
5
Model Components
Model components:
. Flow conservation constraints at nodes
5
Model Components
Model components:
. Flow conservation constraints at nodes
. Model for all kinds of arcs
I Pipes
I Resistors
I Shortcut
I Valves
I Control valves
I Compressors
5
Model Components
Model components:
. Flow conservation constraints at nodes
. Model for all kinds of arcs
I Pipes → nonlinear
I Resistors → nonlinear
I Shortcut
I Valves
I Control valves
I Compressors
5
Model Components
Model components:
. Flow conservation constraints at nodes
. Model for all kinds of arcs
I Pipes → nonlinear
I Resistors → nonlinear
I Shortcut
I Valves → discrete switching
I Control valves → discrete switching
I Compressors → discrete switching
5
Model Components
Model components:
. Flow conservation constraints at nodes
. Model for all kinds of arcs
I Pipes → nonlinear
I Resistors → nonlinear
I Shortcut
I Valves → discrete switching
I Control valves → discrete switching
I Compressors → discrete switching
5
Modeling of Pipelines
Weymouth equation
pi qij pj
αij · qij · |qij | = pi2 − βij pj2 i j
with constants
αij diameter, length, temperature
βij height difference of vertices
pi2 − pj2
qij
6
Valves
pi qij pj
i j
7
Valves
pi qij pj
i j
Two states:
Closed
Open
7
Valves
pi qij pj
One decision variable: xij ∈ {0, 1}
i j
xij
Two states:
Closed
Open
7
Valves
pi qij pj
One decision variable: xij ∈ {0, 1}
i j
xij
Two states:
7
Valves
pi qij pj
One decision variable: xij ∈ {0, 1}
i j
xij
Two states:
7
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
i j
8
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
i j
Three states:
Closed
Bypass
Active
8
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
Two variables: xijbypass + xijactive ≤1 i j
xijactive , xijbypass
Three states:
Closed
Bypass
Active
8
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
Two variables: xijbypass + xijactive ≤1 i j
xijactive , xijbypass
Three states:
8
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
Two variables: xijbypass + xijactive ≤1 i j
xijactive , xijbypass
Three states:
8
Control Valve Constraints
pi qij pj
Two variables: xijbypass + xijactive ≤1 i j
xijactive , xijbypass
Three states:
8
Compressor Station
9
Compressor Station
9
Compressor Station
60
50
Had
40 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
60
50
Had
40 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1 M1 k M3
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1 M1 k M3
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40 M3 M1
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
50
Had
40
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
50
Had
40
Modeling approaches: 30
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
different configurations 60
50
Had
40
Modeling approaches: 30
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Compressor Station
50
Had
40
Modeling approaches: 30
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
Subnetwork Operation Modes
Schematischer Stationsaufbau (neu)
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O
PORZ_VS-H PORZ_VS-H1
(5, 6) (5, 6)
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
VA_193O
PORZ_VS-H PORZ_VS-H1
(5, 6) (5, 6)
tute Berlin
5 April 20, 2011
timization
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
9. Von Scheidt verdichtet nach Paffrath und von Stolbe
Verdichten von Stolberg (M11 o. M12) verdichtet nach Paffrath
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221 VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008 PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198 VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O VA_193O
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
9. Von Scheidt verdichtet nach Paffrath und von Stolbe
Verdichten von Stolberg (M11 o. M12) verdichtet nach Paffrath
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221 VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008 PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198 VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O VA_193O
VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O
tute Berlin
10 April 20, 2011
timization
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
9. Von Scheidt verdichtet nach Paffrath und von Stolbe
Verdichten von Stolberg (M11 o. M12) verdichtet nach Paffrath
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221 VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008 PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198 VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O
3a. Verdichten von Paffrath nach Stolberg und nach Scheidt
VA_193O
VA_193O VA_193O
VA_205 VA_205
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
9. Von Scheidt verdichtet nach Paffrath und von Stolbe
Verdichten von Stolberg (M11 o. M12) verdichtet nach Paffrath
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221 VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008 PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198 VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O
3a. Verdichten von Paffrath nach Stolberg und nach Scheidt
VA_193O
VA_193O VA_193O
VA_205 VA_205
10
Subnetwork Operation Modes
9. Von Scheidt verdichtet nach Paffrath und von Stolbe
Verdichten von Stolberg (M11 o. M12) verdichtet nach Paffrath
. Complex subnetworks can be operated only in specific modes,
e.g. compressor plants
VA_219 VA_221 VA_219 VA_221
PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008 PI_798 VA_198O0003 80060012008
HEROS-H-S-FI HEROS-H-S-FI
VA_193 VA_192 VA_198 VA_193 VA_192 VA_198
VA_193O
3a. Verdichten von Paffrath nach Stolberg und nach Scheidt
VA_193O
VA_193O VA_193O
VA_205 VA_205
10
Gas Network: H-Nord
. 661 nodes
I 32 entries
I 142 exits
. 498 pipes
9 resistors
33 valves
26 control valves
7 compressor stations
. 32 cycles
11
A sample solution
Entry
Exit
12
Gas Network: H-Süd
. 1662 nodes
I 47 entries
I 265 exits
. 1136 pipes
45 resistors
224 valves
78 control valves
29 compressor stations
. 175 cycles
13
Gas Network: L-Gas
. 4133 nodes
I 12 entries
I 1001 exits
. 3623 pipes
26 resistors
300 valves
118 control valves
12 compressor stations
. 259 cycles
14
In Practice: PowerNova
The issue: tracking of calorific values
1
B. Geißler et al.: “Solving Power-Constrained Gas Transportation Problems using an MIP-based Alternating
Direction Method”, 2014, Optimization Online
15
In Practice: PowerNova
The issue: tracking of calorific values
1
B. Geißler et al.: “Solving Power-Constrained Gas Transportation Problems using an MIP-based Alternating
Direction Method”, 2014, Optimization Online
15
In Practice: Flow Commitments
16
In Practice: Flow Commitments
16
In Practice: Flow Commitments
16
Belgium: an Instance from the Literature
17
GasLib: a Library of Gas Network Instances
gaslib.zib.de
18
Outline
1 Nomination Validation
2 Booking Validation
3 PPPP
4 Navi
18
Virtual Trading Points, Entries, and Exits
19
Virtual Trading Points, Entries, and Exits
N3 N2
X1 VTP N1
X3
X2
19
Virtual Trading Points, Entries, and Exits
N3 N2
X1 VTP N1
X3
X2
19
Capacity Estimation
N1 N2
X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2
[20]
[10]
20 X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2 20
[20]
[10]
20 X1 X2 20
20
Capacity Estimation
10 N1 N2 10
[20]
[10]
20 X1 X2
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2 20
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2 20
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2 20
20
Capacity Estimation
20 N1 N2
[20]
[10]
X1 X2 20
20
Regulatory Authorities
21
Regulatory Authorities
21
Regulatory Authorities
21
Regulatory Authorities
21
Booking and Nomination
22
Booking Validation - The Problem
Given
. complete description of network
I pipes
I (control) valves
I compressor stations
. capacity contracts
I entry/exit nodes or zones
I valid for specific dates,
temperatures
I pairwise exclusion
. historical measurements
I hourly demand at exits
I temperature
23
Booking Validation - The Problem
Given Result
. complete description of network . for several
I pipes I contract dates
I (control) valves I reference temperatures
I compressor stations . compute
. capacity contracts I feasibility probability
I entry/exit nodes or zones I (infeasible) nominations
I valid for specific dates,
temperatures
I pairwise exclusion
. historical measurements
I hourly demand at exits
I temperature
23
Approach
Ideally
24
Approach
Ideally
Actually
. generate many probable nominations
I estimate distributions for exit demands
I sample scenarios from distributions
I apply scenario reduction
I worst-case entry completions for each scenario
24
Approach
Ideally
Actually
. generate many probable nominations
I estimate distributions for exit demands
I sample scenarios from distributions
I apply scenario reduction
I worst-case entry completions for each scenario
24
Approach
Ideally
Actually
. generate many probable nominations
I estimate distributions for exit demands
I sample scenarios from distributions
I apply scenario reduction
I worst-case entry completions for each scenario
24
Historical Exit Demand
·104
8
Gas flow [kWh/h]
0
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Temperature [ C]
◦
25
Historical Exit Demand
·104
3
Gas flow [kWh/h]
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Temperature [◦ C]
26
Historical Exit Demand
. separate distribution estimations for
I temperature classes
I workday and weekend
27
Correlation of Exit Demand
. Multivariate Distribution Estimation
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
−0.2
−0.4
−0.6
−0.8
−1
28
Scenario Reduction
-1
-2
-3
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
29
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Pn ≥ 0 power at node n
xc ∈ {0, 1} use of contract c
Pnc ≥0 power at node n from contract c
30
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Pn ≥ 0 power at node n
xc ∈ {0, 1} use of contract c
Pnc ≥0 power at node n from contract c
X X
Pn = Pn nomination is balanced
n∈N n∈X
30
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Pn ≥ 0 power at node n
xc ∈ {0, 1} use of contract c
Pnc ≥0 power at node n from contract c
X X
Pn = Pn nomination is balanced
n∈N n∈X
X
Pn = Pnc different contracts contribute at one node
c3n
30
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Pn ≥ 0 power at node n
xc ∈ {0, 1} use of contract c
Pnc ≥0 power at node n from contract c
X X
Pn = Pn nomination is balanced
n∈N n∈X
X
Pn = Pnc different contracts contribute at one node
c3n
X
Lc xc ≤ Pnc ≤ Uc xc only active when used
n∈c
30
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Pn ≥ 0 power at node n
xc ∈ {0, 1} use of contract c
Pnc ≥0 power at node n from contract c
X X
Pn = Pn nomination is balanced
n∈N n∈X
X
Pn = Pnc different contracts contribute at one node
c3n
X
Lc xc ≤ Pnc ≤ Uc xc only active when used
n∈c
xc1 + xc2 ≤ 1 pairwise exclusion of contracts
30
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Substitutable capacity
31
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Substitutable capacity
Nonsubstitutable capacity
31
MIP Model for Contract-Compliant Nominations
Substitutable capacity
Nonsubstitutable capacity
31
Entry Order
. entry supply hard to predict (nonsubstitutable)
. assume extreme behavior
32
Entry Order
. entry supply hard to predict (nonsubstitutable)
. assume extreme behavior
N 3 N 1 N4 N5 N2
32
Entry Order
. entry supply hard to predict (nonsubstitutable)
. assume extreme behavior
N 3 N 1 N4 N5 N2
32
Evaluation
Booking
33
Evaluation
Scenario s1
50%
20%
Booking Scenario s2
30%
Scenario s3
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
feasible
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
feasible
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
feasible infeasible
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
feasible infeasible
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
33
Evaluation
Nomination n1,1
Scenario s1
Nomination n1,2
50%
Nomination n2,1
20%
Booking Scenario s2
Nomination n2,2
33
Evaluating Gas Network Capacities
34
ForNe team
35
Outline
1 Nomination Validation
2 Booking Validation
3 PPPP
4 Navi
35
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
VTP
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
VTP
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
VTP
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
100
50 VTP
200
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
100 200
50 VTP 100
200
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
100 200
50 VTP 100
200 200
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
100 200
50 VTP 100
200 200
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
. Changes are “always” possible by renominations.
36
The Shipper’s View - Virtual Trading Point
50 50 50
100 200
50 VTP 100
200 200
150
50 150 50
. Shippers nominate capacity on entry and exit nodes for the next gas day
w.r.t. their contractually fixed bookings (upper and lower bounds).
. Changes are “always” possible by renominations.
36
Non-Technical Network Control Measures
37
Non-Technical Network Control Measures
37
Non-Technical Network Control Measures
37
A Look into the Future
38
How to Extend the Capacity of a Network
39
How to Extend the Capacity of a Network
39
A New Contract Type
1
3
2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bounds
40
A New Contract Type
3
2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bounds
40
A new capacity type: fDZK
41
A new capacity type: fDZK
41
A new capacity type: fDZK
41
A new capacity type: fDZK
41
A new capacity type: fDZK
41
A new capacity type: fDZK
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
41
Problem Statement
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
42
Problem Statement
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
42
Problem Statement
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
42
Problem Statement
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
42
Problem Statement
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
42
Base Decision On ...
Network topology
43
Base Decision On ...
Network topology Network state
43
Base Decision On ...
Network topology Network state Bookings/Nominations
50 50 50
100 200
50 100
200 150
50 150 50
43
Base Decision On ...
Network topology Network state Bookings/Nominations
50 50 50
100 200
50 100
200 150
50 150 50
Historical Demands
6,000
5,000
4,000
Flow in kWh
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
43
Base Decision On ...
Network topology Network state Bookings/Nominations
50 50 50
100 200
50 100
200 150
50 150 50
5,000
4,000
Flow in kWh
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
43
Base Decision On ...
Network topology Network state Bookings/Nominations
50 50 50
100 200
50 100
200 150
50 150 50
5,000
4,000
Flow in kWh
...
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
43
Definitions and Notation
. Gas Network
I G = (V , E ) a gas network, entries V+ ⊆ V and exits V− ⊆ V
I K ⊆ V− gas power stations with fDZK contract
44
Definitions and Notation
. Gas Network
I G = (V , E ) a gas network, entries V+ ⊆ V and exits V− ⊆ V
I K ⊆ V− gas power stations with fDZK contract
. Demand Vector
I d : V+ ∪ V− → R a map from entry and exit nodes to flow values
I D set of all demand vectors
44
Definitions and Notation
. Gas Network
I G = (V , E ) a gas network, entries V+ ⊆ V and exits V− ⊆ V
I K ⊆ V− gas power stations with fDZK contract
. Demand Vector
I d : V+ ∪ V− → R a map from entry and exit nodes to flow values
I D set of all demand vectors
. Scenario
I S : {1, . . . , 40} → D a map from time to demand vectors
44
Definitions and Notation
. Gas Network
I G = (V , E ) a gas network, entries V+ ⊆ V and exits V− ⊆ V
I K ⊆ V− gas power stations with fDZK contract
. Demand Vector
I d : V+ ∪ V− → R a map from entry and exit nodes to flow values
I D set of all demand vectors
. Scenario
I S : {1, . . . , 40} → D a map from time to demand vectors
. Prognosis
I (S, Pr ) with
I S := {S1 , S2 , . . . , Sn } a finite set of scenarios
I Pr : S → [0, 1] a probability distribution on S P
n
I pi := Pr (Si ) for all Si ∈ S with pi ∈ [0, 1] and i=1 pi = 1
44
Problem Statement Revisited
06 12 15 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 t
45
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
. K ∈ 2K be a subset of gas power stations,
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
. K ∈ 2K be a subset of gas power stations,
. A ∈ A be the initial state of the network,
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
. K ∈ 2K be a subset of gas power stations,
. A ∈ A be the initial state of the network,
. f : (G , A, S, 2K ) → {0, 1} be an oracle indicating if network G with
initial state A can be controlled over the next 40 hours by restricting
powerplants K and assuming scenario S,
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
. K ∈ 2K be a subset of gas power stations,
. A ∈ A be the initial state of the network,
. f : (G , A, S, 2K ) → {0, 1} be an oracle indicating if network G with
initial state A can be controlled over the next 40 hours by restricting
powerplants K and assuming scenario S,
. and be a tolerance parameter with 0 ≤ < 1.
46
Definition: Safe Network Operation
. (V , E ) be a gas network,
. (S, Pr ) be a prognosis,
. K ∈ 2K be a subset of gas power stations,
. A ∈ A be the initial state of the network,
. f : (G , A, S, 2K ) → {0, 1} be an oracle indicating if network G with
initial state A can be controlled over the next 40 hours by restricting
powerplants K and assuming scenario S,
. and be a tolerance parameter with 0 ≤ < 1.
A subset of powerplants K ∈ 2K admits a safe network operation if
restricting them to their fallback entries satisfies
n
X
pi · f (G , A, Si , K ) ≥ 1 − ,
i=1
min |K |
K ∈2K
Xn
s.t. pi · f (G , A, Si , K ) ≥ 1 − .
i=1
47
Mathematical Solution Approach
Historical Demands
Forecasted Temperature
Prognosis-Generation-Tool
Weekday/Weekend
Forecasted Renewables
... p1 p2 pn
S1 S2 ... Sn
Fix Restrictions
Gas Flow Evaluation Game S1 Game S2 ... Game Sn
48
Generating a Prognosis
Historical Demands
Forecasted Temperature
Prognosis-Generation-Tool
Weekday/Weekend
Forecasted Renewables
... p1 p2 pn
S1 S2 ... Sn
49
Mathematical Solution Approach
Historical Demands
Forecasted Temperature
Prognosis-Generation-Tool
Weekday/Weekend
Forecasted Renewables
... p1 p2 pn
S1 S2 ... Sn
Fix Restrictions
Gas Flow Evaluation Game S1 Game S2 ... Game Sn
50
A Game Of Contracts
By using contracts (e.g. fDZK) the TSO can change the demand vectors
within a scenario. Depending on the type of contract he can
. either increase the amount of flow on some entries (e.g. fDZK) or exits
. or decrease the amount of flow (e.g. interruptible capacity).
51
A Game Of Contracts
By using contracts (e.g. fDZK) the TSO can change the demand vectors
within a scenario. Depending on the type of contract he can
. either increase the amount of flow on some entries (e.g. fDZK) or exits
. or decrease the amount of flow (e.g. interruptible capacity).
51
A Game Of Contracts
By using contracts (e.g. fDZK) the TSO can change the demand vectors
within a scenario. Depending on the type of contract he can
. either increase the amount of flow on some entries (e.g. fDZK) or exits
. or decrease the amount of flow (e.g. interruptible capacity).
Idea: Model this process as game between TSO and the so-called
“shipper’s union” (SU) as the antagonist.
51
First Variation
3
2
2
2 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
52
First Variation
3
2
2
2 2
1 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
52
First Variation
3
2
1 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
52
First Variation
3
2
2
3 2
1 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
52
First Variation
3
2
2
3
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
Game Over
52
Second Variation
3
2
2
2 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
53
Second Variation
3
2
2
3 2
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
53
Second Variation
3
2
2
3 1
x: demand values
x: pressure induced “capacity” bound
Game Over
53
Mathematical Solution Approach
Historical Demands
Forecasted Temperature
Prognosis-Generation-Tool
Weekday/Weekend
Forecasted Renewables
... p1 p2 pn
S1 S2 ... Sn
Fix Restrictions
Gas Flow Evaluation Game S1 Game S2 ... Game Sn
53
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Gas Flow Evaluation
54
Mathematical Solution Approach
Historical Demands
Forecasted Temperature
Prognosis-Generation-Tool
Weekday/Weekend
Forecasted Renewables
... p1 p2 pn
S1 S2 ... Sn
Fix Restrictions
Gas Flow Evaluation Game S1 Game S2 ... Game Sn
55
Outline
1 Nomination Validation
2 Booking Validation
3 PPPP
4 Navi
55
What is a Navigation System to us?
56
What is a Navigation System for a Dispatcher?
. ????????????????
. ????????????????
. ????????????????
. ...
57
A First ”Idea”
. Text to be added
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A Second ”Idea”
. Text to be added
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