Periodo t Yt

1 646
2 477
3 560
4 688
5 892
6 386
7 747
8 533
9 127
10 54
11 707
12 709
13 39
14 164
15 30
16 708
17 379
18 458
19 590
20 766
21 173
22 145
23 674
24 533
25 67
26 296
27 838
28 242
29 717
30 196
Periodo t Yt Y'(PMS-2) Error ABS8(Error) Error^2 Y'(PMS-3)
1955 3307
1956 3556
1957 3601 3431.5 169.5 169.5 28730.25
1958 3721 3578.5 142.5 142.5 20306.25 3488
1959 4036 3661 375 375 140625 3626
1960 4134 3878.5 255.5 255.5 65280.25 3786
1961 4268 4085 183 183 33489 3963.66667
1962 4578 4201 377 377 142129 4146
1963 5093 4423 670 670 448900 4326.66667
1964 5716 4835.5 880.5 880.5 775280.25 4646.33333
1965 6357 5404.5 952.5 952.5 907256.25 5129
1966 6769 6036.5 732.5 732.5 536556.25 5722
1967 7296 6563 733 733 537289 6280.66667
1968 8178 7032.5 1145.5 1145.5 1312170.25 6807.33333
1969 8844 7737 1107 1107 1225449 7414.33333
1970 9251 8511 740 740 547600 8106
1971 10006 9047.5 958.5 958.5 918722.25 8757.66667
1972 10991 9628.5 1362.5 1362.5 1856406.25 9367
1973 12306 10498.5 1807.5 1807.5 3267056.25 10082.6667
1974 13101 11648.5 1452.5 1452.5 2109756.25 11101
1975 13639 12703.5 935.5 935.5 875160.25 12132.6667
1976 14950 13370 1580 1580 2496400 13015.3333
1977 17224 14294.5 2929.5 2929.5 8581970.25 13896.6667
1978 17946 16087 1859 1859 3455881 15271
1979 17514 17585 -71 71 5041 16706.6667
1980 25195 17730 7465 7465 55726225 17561.3333
1981 27357 21354.5 6002.5 6002.5 36030006.3 20218.3333
1982 30020 26276 3744 3744 14017536 23355.3333
1983 35883 28688.5 7194.5 7194.5 51760830.3 27524
1984 38828 32951.5 5876.5 5876.5 34533252.3 31086.6667
1985 40175 37355.5 2819.5 2819.5 7949580.25 34910.3333
1986 44282 39501.5 4780.5 4780.5 22853180.3 38295.3333
1987 48440 42228.5 6211.5 6211.5 38582732.3 41095
1988 50251 46361 3890 3890 15132100 44299
1989 53794 49345.5 4448.5 4448.5 19789152.3 47657.6667
1990 55972 52022.5 3949.5 3949.5 15598550.3 50828.3333
1991 57242 54883 2359 2359 5564881 53339
1992 56607 55669.3333
DAM-2 2,290.30
EMC-2 9,937,870.86
Es el más óptimo
 Error ABS8(Error) Error^2 Y'(PMS-4) Error ABS8(Error) Error^2

233 233 54289

410 410 168100 3546.25 489.75 489.75 239855.063
348 348 121104 3728.5 405.5 405.5 164430.25
304.333333 304.33333333 92618.7778 3873 395 395 156025
432 432 186624 4039.75 538.25 538.25 289713.063
766.333333 766.33333333 587266.778 4254 839 839 703921
1069.66667 1069.6666667 1144186.78 4518.25 1197.75 1197.75 1434605.06
1228 1228 1507984 4913.75 1443.25 1443.25 2082970.56
1047 1047 1096209 5436 1333 1333 1776889
1015.33333 1015.3333333 1030901.78 5983.75 1312.25 1312.25 1722000.06
1370.66667 1370.6666667 1878727.11 6534.5 1643.5 1643.5 2701092.25
1429.66667 1429.6666667 2043946.78 7150 1694 1694 2869636
1145 1145 1311025 7771.75 1479.25 1479.25 2188180.56
1248.33333 1248.3333333 1558336.11 8392.25 1613.75 1613.75 2604189.06
1624 1624 2637376 9069.75 1921.25 1921.25 3691201.56
2223.33333 2223.3333333 4943211.11 9773 2533 2533 6416089
2000 2000 4000000 10638.5 2462.5 2462.5 6063906.25
1506.33333 1506.3333333 2269040.11 11601 2038 2038 4153444
1934.66667 1934.6666667 3742935.11 12509.25 2440.75 2440.75 5957260.56
3327.33333 3327.3333333 11071147.1 13499 3725 3725 13875625
2675 2675 7155625 14728.5 3217.5 3217.5 10352306.3
807.333333 807.33333333 651787.111 15939.75 1574.25 1574.25 2478263.06
7633.66667 7633.6666667 58272866.8 16908.5 8286.5 8286.5 68666082.3
7138.66667 7138.6666667 50960561.8 19469.75 7887.25 7887.25 62208712.6
6664.66667 6664.6666667 44417781.8 22003 8017 8017 64272289
8359 8359 69872881 25021.5 10861.5 10861.5 117972182
7741.33333 7741.3333333 59928241.8 29613.75 9214.25 9214.25 84902403.1
5264.66667 5264.6666667 27716715.1 33022 7153 7153 51165409
5986.66667 5986.6666667 35840177.8 36226.5 8055.5 8055.5 64891080.3
7345 7345 53949025 39792 8648 8648 74787904
5952 5952 35426304 42931.25 7319.75 7319.75 53578740.1
6136.33333 6136.3333333 37654586.8 45787 8007 8007 64112049
5143.66667 5143.6666667 26457306.8 49191.75 6780.25 6780.25 45971790.1
3903 3903 15233409 52114.25 5127.75 5127.75 26293820.1
54314.75
DAM-3 3,100.41 DAM-4 3,928.92
EMC-3 16,617,126.42 EMC-4 25,780,123.16
Periodo t Yt Mt M't at bt Y't+1 (con p=1)
1955 3307
1956 3556
1957 3601 3488
1958 3721 3626
1959 4036 3786 3633.33333 3938.66667 152.666667
1960 4134 3963.66667 3791.88889 4135.44444 171.777778 4091.33333333
1961 4268 4146 3965.22222 4326.77778 180.777778 4307.22222222
1962 4578 4326.66667 4145.44444 4507.88889 181.222222 4507.55555556
1963 5093 4646.33333 4373 4919.66667 273.333333 4689.11111111
1964 5716 5129 4700.66667 5557.33333 428.333333 5193
1965 6357 5722 5165.77778 6278.22222 556.222222 5985.66666667
1966 6769 6280.66667 5710.55556 6850.77778 570.111111 6834.44444444
1967 7296 6807.33333 6270 7344.66667 537.333333 7420.88888889
1968 8178 7414.33333 6834.11111 7994.55556 580.222222 7882
1969 8844 8106 7442.55556 8769.44444 663.444444 8574.77777778
1970 9251 8757.66667 8092.66667 9422.66667 665 9432.88888889
1971 10006 9367 8743.55556 9990.44444 623.444444 10087.6666667
1972 10991 10082.6667 9402.44444 10762.8889 680.222222 10613.8888889
1973 12306 11101 10183.5556 12018.4444 917.444444 11443.1111111
1974 13101 12132.6667 11105.4444 13159.8889 1027.22222 12935.8888889
1975 13639 13015.3333 12083 13947.6667 932.333333 14187.1111111
1976 14950 13896.6667 13014.8889 14778.4444 881.777778 14880
1977 17224 15271 14061 16481 1210 15660.2222222
1978 17946 16706.6667 15291.4444 18121.8889 1415.22222 17691
1979 17514 17561.3333 16513 18609.6667 1048.33333 19537.1111111
1980 25195 20218.3333 18162.1111 22274.5556 2056.22222 19658
1981 27357 23355.3333 20378.3333 26332.3333 2977 24330.7777778
1982 30020 27524 23699.2222 31348.7778 3824.77778 29309.3333333
1983 35883 31086.6667 27322 34851.3333 3764.66667 35173.5555556
1984 38828 34910.3333 31173.6667 38647 3736.66667 38616
1985 40175 38295.3333 34764.1111 41826.5556 3531.22222 42383.6666667
1986 44282 41095 38100.2222 44089.7778 2994.77778 45357.7777778
1987 48440 44299 41229.7778 47368.2222 3069.22222 47084.5555556
1988 50251 47657.6667 44350.5556 50964.7778 3307.11111 50437.4444444
1989 53794 50828.3333 47595 54061.6667 3233.33333 54271.8888889
1990 55972 53339 50608.3333 56069.6667 2730.66667 57295
1991 57242 55669.3333 53278.8889 58059.7778 2390.44444 58800.3333333
1992 60450.2222222
 Error ABS8(Error) Error^2

42.66666667 42.66666667 1820.44444

-39.2222222 39.22222222 1538.38272
70.44444444 70.44444444 4962.41975
403.8888889 403.8888889 163126.235
523 523 273529
371.3333333 371.3333333 137888.444
-65.4444444 65.44444444 4282.97531
-124.888889 124.8888889 15597.2346
296 296 87616
269.2222222 269.2222222 72480.6049
-181.888889 181.8888889 33083.5679
-81.6666667 81.66666667 6669.44444
377.1111111 377.1111111 142212.79
862.8888889 862.8888889 744577.235
165.1111111 165.1111111 27261.679
-548.111111 548.1111111 300425.79
70 70 4900
1563.777778 1563.777778 2445400.94
255 255 65025
-2023.11111 2023.111111 4092978.57
5537 5537 30658369
3026.222222 3026.222222 9158020.94
710.6666667 710.6666667 505047.111
709.4444444 709.4444444 503311.42
212 212 44944
-2208.66667 2208.666667 4878208.44
-1075.77778 1075.777778 1157297.83
1355.444444 1355.444444 1837229.64
-186.444444 186.4444444 34761.5309
-477.888889 477.8888889 228377.79
-1323 1323 1750329
-1558.33333 1558.333333 2428402.78

DAM 834.86
EMC 1,931,552.38
 alfa 0.3

1) Periodo t Yt Y't+1 Error ABS8(Error) Error^2

1955 3307 3307
1956 3556 3,307.00 249.00 249 62,001.00
1957 3601 3,381.70 219.30 219.3 48,092.49
1958 3721 3,447.49 273.51 273.51 74,807.72
1959 4036 3,529.54 506.46 506.457 256,498.69
1960 4134 3,681.48 452.52 452.5199 204,774.26
1961 4268 3,817.24 450.76 450.76393 203,188.12
1962 4578 3,952.47 625.53 625.534751 391,293.72
1963 5093 4,140.13 952.87 952.8743257 907,969.48
1964 5716 4,425.99 1,290.01 1290.012028 1,664,131.03
1965 6357 4,812.99 1,544.01 1544.0084196 2,383,962.00
1966 6769 5,276.19 1,492.81 1492.8058937 2,228,469.44
1967 7296 5,724.04 1,571.96 1571.9641256 2,471,071.21
1968 8178 6,195.63 1,982.37 1982.3748879 3,929,810.20
1969 8844 6,790.34 2,053.66 2053.6624215 4,217,529.34
1970 9251 7,406.44 1,844.56 1844.5636951 3,402,415.23
1971 10006 7,959.81 2,046.19 2046.1945866 4,186,912.29
1972 10991 8,573.66 2,417.34 2417.3362106 5,843,514.36
1973 12306 9,298.86 3,007.14 3007.1353474 9,042,863.00
1974 13101 10,201.01 2,899.99 2899.9947432 8,409,969.51
1975 13639 11,071.00 2,568.00 2567.9963202 6,594,605.10
1976 14950 11,841.40 3,108.60 3108.5974242 9,663,377.95
1977 17224 12,773.98 4,450.02 4450.0181969 19,802,661.95
1978 17946 14,108.99 3,837.01 3837.0127378 14,722,666.75
1979 17514 15,260.09 2,253.91 2253.9089165 5,080,105.40
1980 25195 15,936.26 9,258.74 9258.7362415 85,724,196.79
1981 27357 18,713.88 8,643.12 8643.1153691 74,703,443.28
1982 30020 21,306.82 8,713.18 8713.1807584 75,919,518.93
1983 35883 23,920.77 11,962.23 11962.226531 143,094,863.58
1984 38828 27,509.44 11,318.56 11318.558572 128,109,768.14
1985 40175 30,905.01 9,269.99 9269.9910001 85,932,733.14
1986 44282 33,686.01 10,595.99 10595.9937 112,275,082.49
1987 48440 36,864.80 11,575.20 11575.19559 133,985,152.95
1988 50251 40,337.36 9,913.64 9913.636913 98,280,196.84
1989 53794 43,311.45 10,482.55 10482.545839 109,883,767.27
1990 55972 46,456.22 9,515.78 9515.7820874 90,550,108.73
1991 57242 49,310.95 7,931.05 7931.0474612 62,901,513.83
51,690.27
DAM 4,479.93
EMC 36,309,806.56
Atenuacion
Exp. Doble. 0.3
At. At' at bt Yt' Error Error(Abs) Error^2
3307 3307 3307 0
3381.7 3329.41 3433.99 22.41 3307 249 249 62001
3447.49 3364.834 3530.146 35.424 3456.4 144.6 144.6 20909.16
3529.543 3414.2467 3644.8393 49.4127 3565.57 155.43 155.43 24158.4849
3681.4801 3494.41672 3868.54348 80.17002 3694.252 341.748 341.748 116791.696
3817.23607 3591.26253 4043.20962 96.845805 3948.7135 185.2865 185.2865 34331.0871
3952.46525 3699.62334 4205.30716 108.360817 4140.05542 127.94458 127.94458 16369.8156
4140.12567 3831.77404 4448.47731 132.1507 4313.66797 264.332027 264.332027 69871.4205
4425.98797 4010.03822 4841.93772 178.264179 4580.62801 512.371994 512.371994 262525.06
4812.99158 4250.92423 5375.05893 240.886008 5020.2019 695.798098 695.798098 484134.993
5276.19411 4558.50519 5993.88302 307.580963 5615.94494 741.05506 741.05506 549162.602
5724.03587 4908.1644 6539.90735 349.659205 6301.46398 467.536016 467.536016 218589.926
6195.62511 5294.40261 7096.84761 386.238215 6889.56656 406.433443 406.433443 165188.144
6790.33758 5743.1831 7837.49206 448.78049 7483.08583 694.914173 694.914173 482905.707
7406.4363 6242.15906 8570.71355 498.975961 8286.27255 557.727454 557.727454 311059.913
7959.80541 6757.45297 9162.15786 515.293905 9069.68951 181.310492 181.310492 32873.4944
8573.66379 7302.31621 9845.01136 544.863246 9677.45176 328.548236 328.548236 107943.943
9298.86465 7901.28075 10696.4486 598.964531 10389.8746 601.125389 601.125389 361351.733
10201.0053 8591.1981 11810.8124 689.917353 11295.4131 1010.58691 1010.58691 1021285.9
11071.0037 9335.13977 12806.8676 743.941674 12500.7298 600.270232 600.270232 360324.352
11841.4026 10087.0186 13595.7865 751.878841 13550.8093 88.1907395 88.1907395 7777.60654
12773.9818 10893.1076 14654.856 806.088957 14347.6654 602.334622 602.334622 362806.996
14108.9873 11857.8715 16360.103 964.763907 15460.945 1763.05501 1763.05501 3108362.96
15260.0911 12878.5374 17641.6448 1020.66588 17324.867 621.133046 621.133046 385806.261
15936.2638 13795.8553 18076.6722 917.31792 18662.3107 -1148.3107 1148.31069 1318617.44
18713.8846 15271.2641 22156.5052 1475.40881 18993.9902 6201.00984 6201.00984 38452523.1
21306.8192 17081.9306 25531.7079 1810.66655 23631.914 3725.08602 3725.08602 13876265.8
23920.7735 19133.5835 28707.9635 2051.65285 27342.3744 2677.6256 2677.6256 7169678.86
27509.4414 21646.3409 33372.542 2512.75738 30759.6163 5123.38369 5123.38369 26249060.5
30905.009 24423.9413 37386.0767 2777.60044 35885.2994 2942.70063 2942.70063 8659486.98
33686.0063 27202.5608 40169.4518 2778.6195 40163.6771 11.3228669 11.3228669 128.207315
36864.8044 30101.2339 43628.3749 2898.67308 42948.0713 1333.92871 1333.92871 1779365.79
40337.3631 33172.0726 47502.6535 3070.83876 46527.048 1912.95198 1912.95198 3659385.3
43311.4542 36213.8871 50409.0212 3041.81445 50573.4923 -322.49229 322.492288 104001.276
46456.2179 39286.5863 53625.8495 3072.69924 53450.8357 343.164325 343.164325 117761.754
49310.9525 42293.8962 56328.0089 3007.30986 56698.5487 -726.54872 726.548724 527873.049
51690.2668 45112.8074 58267.7262 2818.91117 59335.3187 -2093.3187 2093.31873 4381983.32

DAM 1108.40489
EMC 3190629.54
Atenuación Atenuación
Exponencial Exponencial
Holt alfa 30% beta 20% Winter alfa
At. Tt Yt' Error(Abs) Error^2 At. Tt
3307 0
3381.7 14.94 3307 249 62001
3437.032 23.0184 3396.64 204.36 41763.0096
3506.10952 32.230224 3460.0504 260.9496 68094.6937402
3642.51551 53.0653766 3538.33974 497.660256 247665.730402
3752.81509 64.5122182 3695.58088 438.419116 192211.321415
3862.21201 73.4891585 3817.32731 450.67269 203105.873924
4025.506 91.4501239 3935.70117 642.29883 412547.787321
4281.73911 124.406722 4116.95612 976.043879 952661.653982
4624.93267 168.16409 4406.14583 1309.85417 1715717.93858
5026.83801 214.912339 4793.09676 1563.90324 2445793.33711
5399.04797 246.371863 5241.75035 1527.24965 2332491.50339
5795.67327 276.422552 5645.41983 1650.58017 2724414.89289
6316.87551 325.378488 6072.09583 2105.90417 4434832.39382
6847.24791 366.377272 6642.25399 2201.74601 4847685.47956
7311.90945 386.034124 7213.62518 2037.37482 4150896.14142
7849.91273 416.427955 7697.94357 2308.05643 5327124.47013
8500.73934 463.307687 8266.34068 2724.65932 7423768.39872
9318.00216 534.098713 8964.04703 3341.95297 11168649.674
10079.0324 579.485021 9852.10087 3248.89913 10555345.5556
10741.3832 596.058169 10658.5174 2980.48257 8883276.33731
11586.7275 645.915401 11337.4413 3612.55866 13050580.0558
12825.7685 764.540515 12232.6429 4991.3571 24913645.6605
13826.6596 811.810631 13590.309 4355.69101 18972044.2128
14364.5943 757.035443 14638.4702 2875.5298 8268671.62619
17083.7912 1149.46774 15121.6297 10073.3703 101472789.219
19361.1264 1375.04124 18233.2589 9123.74109 83242651.542
21596.2596 1547.05963 20736.1676 9283.83236 86189543.3043
24799.34 1878.26378 23143.3192 12739.6808 162299465.649
27693.1533 2081.3737 26677.6038 12150.3962 147632128.556
29980.7458 2122.61744 29774.527 10400.473 108169837.745
32785.2898 2259.00276 32103.3632 12178.6368 148319194.447
35900.4009 2430.22443 35044.2926 13395.7074 179444977.111
38504.4236 2464.98407 38330.6254 11920.3746 142095331.178
41365.8076 2544.26407 40969.4076 12824.5924 164470169.586
43966.6805 2555.58583 43910.0717 12061.9283 145490114.023
46160.3663 2483.20582 46522.2663 10719.7337 114912690.043

DAM 5095.2130682
EMC 47698163.3654
 30% beta 20% gamma 30%
St
 Atenuación Expo. Winter alfa
Periodo t Yt At Tt St
1984 Dec-31 1 147.6 147.6 0 1
Mar-31 2 251.8 178.86 6.252 1
Jun-31 3 273.1 211.5084 11.53128 1
Sep-31 4 249.1 230.857776 13.0948992 1
1985 Dec-31 5 139.3 212.556873 6.81573869 0.8966062
Mar-31 6 221.2 219.920828 6.92538201 1.00174495
Jun-31 7 260.2 236.852347 8.92660941 1.02957242
Sep-31 8 259.5 249.895269 9.74987203 1.01153051
1986 Dec-31 9 140.5 228.762204 3.57328451 0.81187681
Mar-31 10 245.5 236.284842 4.36315521 0.93932441
Jun-31 11 298.8 258.093598 7.85227538 0.9749402
Sep-31 12 287 272.262111 9.11552298 0.94386372
1987 Dec-31 13 168.8 247.604344 2.36086492
Mar-31 14 322.6 271.755646 6.71895238
Jun-31 15 393.5 312.982219 13.6204765
Sep-31 16 404.3 349.911887 18.2823147
1988 Dec-31 17 259.7 335.645941 11.7726626
Mar-31 18 401.1 363.523023 14.9935464
Jun-31 19 464.6 404.341598 20.1585523
Sep-31 20 479.7 441.060105 23.4705432
1989 Dec-31 21 264.4 404.491454 11.4627043
Mar-31 22 402.6 411.947911 10.6614548
Jun-31 23 411.3 419.216556 9.98289287
Sep-31 24 385.9 416.209614 7.38492594
1990 Dec-31 25 232.7 366.326178 -4.0687465
Mar-31 26 309.2 346.340202 -7.2521924
Jun-31 27 310.7 330.571607 -8.955473
Sep-31 28 293 313.031294 -10.672441
1991 Dec-31 29 205.1 273.181197 -16.507972
Mar-31 30 234.4 249.991257 -17.844366
Jun-31 31 285.4 248.122824 -14.649179
Sep-31 32 258.7 241.041552 -13.135598
1992 Dec-31 33 193.2 217.494168 -15.217955
Mar-31 34 263.7 220.703349 -11.532528
Jun-31 35 292.5 234.169575 -6.5327771
Sep-31 36 315.2 253.905758 -1.2789849
1993 Dec-31 37 178.3 230.328741 -5.7385913
Mar-31 38 274.5 239.563105 -2.7440003
Jun-31 39 295.4 254.393373 0.77085339
Sep-31 40 311.8 272.154959 4.16899978
30% beta 20% gamma 30%
 2000 2001 2002
Enero 197.01 208.00 228.41
Febrero 195.52 206.15 230.93
Marzo 211.15 239.05 276.86
Abril 216.86 226.61 236.83
Mayo 207.96 224.45 255.85
Junio 207.77 230.83 257.99
Julio 218.80 227.64 244.71
Agosto 211.17 227.75 261.12
Septiembre 233.41 249.93 262.51
Octubre 219.97 234.41 255.06
Noviembre 213.09 236.77 265.01
Diciembre 292.51 318.79 341.42