Urban Dynamics Jay W. Forrester Pegasus Communications, Inc. WalthamCopyright © 1963, 1999 by Jay W. Fores. All sights sexerved, No pce of eis ook may be reproduced or atilized in any fxm or by any meues,electonc o mechanical including photocopying, cor ing © by any inforntion storage and eecieval apscem, without writen pee tion from the publisher Peoted and bound in Uh United States of Americ ISBN: 1-983823.39-0 (previouly poblised by NIT Fess, and Productivity Pes) Pegaras Commencatios, nis coated to keping te tiles in hisses in pie tw appe te growing fel of tem dys. The copay i dedicat to providing feourc ht tl ppl exper sean, acu, rd dae dhe calenge they fein managing oe cpl: of a chenging wo Since 1989, Peps ae worked o buds ommanay ef ystems thinking apd orpaniniorl cevelpmest patents fhrough valet bony audi and vide open dan Sat Thinking Actin (Conference td eh vets ‘Adina ope of thir book ae saab or he paler coun fo maple ‘piece alo alae Aces angi Pegans Commoiction, fo Edi and Adiicracive Ofcez Crdes and Papen Offices: One Sood Stet, PO. Boe 2241 Wham, MACRSSSS339 USA Wilton, VIO USA Pour: 78398-9709 Pam: (00) 27209454602) 862-095, Por (81) 954717 i (602) 964.3626 Er inledpeantcam cam Ema: cxtomeneepegson crn 5346 05 04 05 02 oF To My Father M.M.F.Foreword ‘Much has been written of the crisis of the cities, the greatest domestic crisis to challenge America in a century. The National League of Cities and the United States Conference of Mayors in July 1968 issued a joint statement on the urban situation, which said in part: “The ers ofthe Citys in realty analonal domestics. Ik alot ever segment of our tity: urban jobless require weer paid for by Federal dollars nationally colected, inadequate urban schools cast upon the nation another generation of people unprepared to make their own way, turban tric congestion adda millions of dlls othe cot of items on neighborhood sore shelves sound the couatey. Te cris of the cites belongs to the nation. “The nation cannot solve the urban cles by ignorngitor by soppressing is manifestation. ‘Tue nation must face i a it bas faced crises in the past, by: acknowledging is basic causes; secognzing the nation’ wll and abiiy to recolve them; accepting hat objective as its obligetion te current and future generations; and seotdering ational prcriGes to amare the commitment of the Kind and magnitde of rescures required. In this important and provocative book, Professor Forrester asks whether the ‘measures we have adopted to alleviate urban problems have notin fact intensified them. If he is right in contending that some sotutions in the past have been less successful than their proponents anticipated-—and in a few cases even counter- productive in the long run—we must re-examine the problems of our cities, abandon a number of old approaches, and adopt or invent new modes of attack. Whether Professor Forrester’s conclusions are right will be a matter of con- siderable and spirited debate. He offers them as tentative proposals and invites ‘challenge, comment, or amendment. The very debate this book will provoke—n0 matter what the outcome—will constitute an important and helpful event in the battle to save our cities. ‘The plight of urban America is so grave and complex that it clearly defies simple remedies. Professor Forrester makes the point that long experience with simple systems has shaped our intuitive short-term responses and that, however well motivated, they may be ineffective or even detrimental when applied to such 1 complex system as an urban area.