DNV - GL - Webinar - Building A Carbon-Robust Strategy For Shipping - Nov 2018

MARITIME
Webinar: Building a carbon-robust strategy for shipping
28 November 2018
1 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

FORECAST TO 2050 - SUITE OF PUBLICATIONS
2 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

The Maritime forecast to 2050 provides projections for
Maritime forecast to 2050 provides outlooks for key drivers
Goods to be
Regulation Technology & Fuel
transported
Fuel mix and CO2 emissions - the World fleet

Competitiveness and CO2 emissions – ship designs

Content
Development fleet energy mix and CO2

emissions, factoring in regulatory development
and technology drivers
The carbon-robust ship concept, providing

guidance for stakeholders coping with
increasing uncertainty, risk, and opportunities

Development in the fleet energy mix and CO2 emissions,
factoring in:
- Regulatory development
- Technology drivers
Transitions
What to expect next?
Goal to reduce 50 %
compared to 2008
DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Illustration: Brynolf, S. (2014). Environmental Assessment of Present and Future Marine Fuels.
6 PhD Thesis, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden.
Global warming (Greenhouse gases) - a global challenge
April 2018: IMO GHG Strategy with targets and policy measures
Possible measures
Short term (-2023)
Review and strengthen EEDI, including new
phases
Develop operational indicators
Speed reduction/optimization
National Action Plans
Lifecycle GHG/carbon intensity guidelines for fuels
Medium term (2023-2030)
New reduction mechanism, possibly including
operational indicators
Market-based measures
Implementation program for low-carbon fuels
Long term (2030-)
Development and provision of zero-carbon fuels
Other innovative reduction mechanisms
7 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV GL 2018
Local pollution (SOx, NOx and particles) - a major health concern in densely
populated areas
Environmental awareness; SOx, NOx, other
Global regulations Local regulations

California Norway Hong Kong
There is a range of promising CO2 measures and effective reduction strategies
• In addition to energy-efficiency measures, reaching the IMO target for reducing GHG emissions from
shipping will most likely require widespread uptake of fuels with a high GHG reduction potential
• Digitalization will be a key enabler for reducing ineffectiveness, and assisting in prototyping novel
technologies and solutions
LOGISTICS & HYDRODYNAMICS FUELS AND

MACHINERY
DIGITALIZATION ENERGY SOURCES
• Speed reduction • Hull coating • Machinery improvements • LNG/LPG

• Vessel utilization • Hull form optimization • Waste heat • Electrification
• Vessel size • Air lubrication • Engine de-rating • Biofuel
• Alternative routes • Cleaning • Battery hybridization • Synthetic/hydrogen
etc.
>20% 10-15% 5-20% 0-100%
DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV GL 2018
Time spent in each operating mode by major ship types and size categories
Fuel consumption in various main operating modes:

• Stationary (0 knot);
• Maneuvering (1–5kn)
• Cruising (more than 5kn)
Recent literature review of 60 studies provides quantitative estimates
of the CO2 emission-reduction potential
Main results indicate large

potential and variability A solid bar indicates
the typical reduction
potential area, i.e.
from 1st to 3rd
quartile of the
Fuel consumption per tonne- dataset, and a thin
line indicates the
whole spread, which
mile will decline, mainly due to and corresponds to
the ranges
hull and machinery presented.
improvements and speed

reduction
- The reduction potential will
depend ship type, size,
operational profile, technical
conditions/status, age, etc.
11 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV GL 2018; Bouman et al, 2017
Alternative fuel paths - difficult to identify ‘winners and losers’
Current
path
Key aspects
Fossil LNG Primary energy sources:

path Renewables, nuclear?
Biodiesel Processing:
path
Captured carbon to
Renewable produce electro-fuels?
H2 path
Which energy carriers:
++ Liquid, gas, hydrocarbons?
Which energy converter:

Internal combustion, fuel
cells, electric motors?
++
Inspired by Brynolf S. (2014), ‘Environmental assessment of present and future marine fuels’
Evaluation of fuel paths – globally today
Fuel path Primary source Energy carrier Energy converter Scalability Economy Environment
Current Oil HFO/MGO Diesel engine
Fossil Gas/dual fuel

Gas LNG/LPG
LNG/LPG engine
Diesel/gas/dual
Biofuels Biomass Diesel/LBG
fuel engine
Electro- Solar/wind/ Diesel/gas/dual
Diesel/LNG
fuels hydro/nuclear fuel engine
Solar/wind/
Electricity Battery Electric motor
hydro/nuclear
Renewable Solar/wind/ Hydrogen/
Fuel cell
H2/NH3 hydro/nuclear ammonia
All alternative fuel paths face challenges and barriers
BARRIERS
Safety
Cost
Storage
Environmental
aspects
Infrastructure
LNG-powered ships
MF Glutra built in 2000

2018: 124 vessels running on LNG
15 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: The Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform, https://www.dnvgl.com/services/alternative-fuels-insight-128171
All-electric and battery hybrid ships
MF Ampere built in 2015
16 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: Maritime Battery Forum, http://maritimebatteryforum.com/

By 2050, 39% of shipping energy will be supplied by carbon-neutral fuels,
surpassing liquid fossil fuels
The carbon-robust ship concept, providing guidance for
stakeholders coping with increasing uncertainty, risk, and
opportunities
18 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

Competitiveness and CO2 emissions – ship designs
Many uncertainties – potential for big shifts:

– It is not clear which fuels and technologies will win
in the short or long term,
– But we need to build ships today – how can we
make it robust?
DNV GL has developed a framework to test

competitiveness under different scenarios –
taken into account:
– Fuel & technology
– Regulations
– Risk related to market
Demand for seaborne transport will grow 37% by 2050
Average growth of 2%/yr to 2030, then 0.2%/yr towards 2050
The Carbon Robustness Framework
Ensuring a competitive ship under possible future scenarios
Your designs vs Competing fleet
Top 5 % Year
Top 20 %
Competitiveness
Average
Bottom 20
%
Design choices Policy scenarios

Bottom 5 %
Fuel prices CO2 Price
Variables
Using the model to explore options, asking ‘what if?’ questions
What if the cost of

What if we select a liquefied
fuel increases? natural gas-ready concept?
What if we use heavy fuel What if we add more

oil with exhaust scrubbers energy efficiency
instead of marine gas oil? measures to our design?
Same fuel (MGO/LSHFO) – will investment in different technologies pay off?
Difficult
Easy
Baseline
tech.
measures:
measures:
measures:
Automatic
Improved auxiliary
•• Optimizingengine
cargoperformance
engine load
handling
optimization
•• Hull cleaning
WHR (Waste Heat Recovery)
• Aux system
Propeller optimization
efficiency
•• Air cavity lubrication
• Engine de-rating
Trim & draft
•• Flettner rotoroptimization
• Shaft
Weather generator
routing PTO/PTI
•• Solar panels
•• Hull formlighting
Efficient optimization
system
• Propeller retrofit
• Autopilot optimization
• Optimizing cargo handling
Will investment in different fuel types pay off?
Scrubbers – it is all about

the price gap…
LNG – proves to be attractive

in a long run
LNG ready – it will cost you

more, but will offer flexibility
What if CO2 emissions will add into your fuel bill in the future?
MGO – will be the most

affected by CO2 levy
HFO with scrubber -

equally affected but mind
the gap
LNG – less sensitivity due

to lower CO2 emissions
Key take-aways: The carbon-robust ship
Energy efficiency measures pay off
Scrubber seems to be a good choice, but

exposed to GHG regulations
LNG is capital intensive, but robust in the

future, particularly if CO2 levy is introduced
There is no one size fits all solution
Summary
Innovation and regulation will drive the

1
change towards low carbon shipping
2 The fuel mix will change!
3 When building a ship today, ensure it

remains competitive for the next decades
(“carbon robust”)
Thank You
www.dnvgl.com
The trademarks DNV GL®, DNV®, the Horizon Graphic and Det Norske Veritas®
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER are the properties of companies in the Det Norske Veritas group. All rights reserved.
28 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

DNV - GL - Webinar - Building A Carbon-Robust Strategy For Shipping - Nov 2018

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MARITIME

Webinar: Building a carbon-robust strategy for shipping

1 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

Maritime forecast to 2050 provides outlooks for key drivers

Fuel mix and CO2 emissions - the World fleet

3 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

Development fleet energy mix and CO2

The carbon-robust ship concept, providing

4 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

What to expect next?

Environmental awareness; SOx, NOx, other

Global regulations Local regulations

LOGISTICS & HYDRODYNAMICS FUELS AND

• Speed reduction • Hull coating • Machinery improvements • LNG/LPG

>20% 10-15% 5-20% 0-100%

Fuel consumption in various main operating modes:

Main results indicate large

improvements and speed

Fossil LNG Primary energy sources:

Which energy converter:

Current Oil HFO/MGO Diesel engine

Fossil Gas/dual fuel

MF Glutra built in 2000

MF Ampere built in 2015

16 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018 Source: Maritime Battery Forum, http://maritimebatteryforum.com/

18 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

Many uncertainties – potential for big shifts:

DNV GL has developed a framework to test

Average growth of 2%/yr to 2030, then 0.2%/yr towards 2050

Your designs vs Competing fleet

Design choices Policy scenarios

Fuel prices CO2 Price

What if the cost of

What if we use heavy fuel What if we add more

Scrubbers – it is all about

LNG – proves to be attractive

LNG ready – it will cost you

MGO – will be the most

HFO with scrubber -

LNG – less sensitivity due

Energy efficiency measures pay off

Scrubber seems to be a good choice, but

LNG is capital intensive, but robust in the

There is no one size fits all solution

Innovation and regulation will drive the

2 The fuel mix will change!

3 When building a ship today, ensure it

28 DNV GL © 2018 28 November 2018

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