Graduate course in Mathematics and Biology

Erasmus Intensive Program

Paris, july 2nd-13th 2007

Author: Emilia López Iñesta

Institution: Department of Statistics and Operative Research.
Universitat de València

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION: AN OVERVIEW OF DIFFERENTS

METHODS
ABSTRACT
Traditionally, sample survey data has been used
to provide reliable direct estimates of means or
totals for the whole population in large areas or
domains of interest, and the associated
inferences are based on the distribution induced
by the sampling design. In these situations,
direct estimators are unbiased and not very
variable because the sample size is large enough.
Design-based estimators are now no longer
applicable since they can not be calculated due to
the lack of sample.
ESTIMATION METHODS
Survey Design
The desing of the survey involves the definitions of the
areas to be sampled, the domains (subpopulations) and
how the sample is obtained (randomly, etc)
Direct Estimators
This class of estimators are based only on the sampled
obtained in the survey.
Horvitz-Thompson estimator
It is only based on the sampled values of the target variable
and the weights defined in the survey design:

These domains with very small sample size are

called "small areas" and they usually correspond
to small geographic areas, such as counties,
municipalities or administrative divisions. The
term small area can also refer to a specific small
subpopulation, such as a type of crop, a
particular economic activity or a subgroup of
people from the same sex, race or other
characteristic, within a large geographic domain.
The impossibility of applying classical design-
based direct estimators to provide information
for small areas has led to the development of
new model-based methods, falling under the
headline of "Small Area Estimation", to reduce
errors in small area statistics.
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Demand for Small Area Estimations has been
growing in recents years because of the use of
indirect estimation methods to produce
statistics at the small area level.
This project is focused on a case study, applied
to a urban environment and an overview of the
existing small area techniques: direct, indirect
and model based. Illustrative examples are
given for each of the estimation methods
discussed. In each case, comparisons will be
made in terms of the efficiency of the resulting
of the small area estimations. Also we consider to
compare the reliability of the different proposed
methods using real and simulated information.
The methods will be be applied to the city of
Valencia.
Indirect Estimators
Synthetic estimator
The synthetic estimator is based on a linear model on some
covariates
Composite estimator
This estimator is a compromise between the direct and the
synthetic estimator.
Where Yi2 is the Direct estimator and Yi2 is the synthetic
estimator, and the Øi is a shrinkage coefficient between 0
and 1.
Model estimators
When only area level data are available, the following model
is assumed:
Where β is the regression coefficient and ei is the samplig
error. At the individual level, the model used:
Where xij are the covariates for the individual j in region i, ui
the effect of the area i and eij the individual variability.
REFERENCES
Ghosh, M. and Rao, J. N. K. (1994). Small Area Estimation:
An Appraisal. Statistical Science volume(9), 55–93.
Prasad, N. G. N. and Rao, J. N. K. (1990). The Estimation of
Mean Squared Error of Small Area Estimators. Journal
of the American Statistical Association volume(85),
163–171.
Rao, J.N.K (2003). Small Area Estimation. Wiley Series in
Survey Methodology.