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contents » On the web
ihs.com/janes
Editorial
Editor: Peter Felstead
Asia-Pacific Editor: James Hardy
Europe Editor: Nicholas de Larrinaga
Middle East/Africa Editor: Jeremy Binnie
JDW Features Editor: Kate Tringham
JDW Assistant Features Editor: Fay Brigden
Jane’s Aviation Desk Editor: Gareth Jennings
Jane’s Land Desk Editor: Nick Brown
Jane’s Land Consultant: Christopher F Foss
Jane’s Naval Consultant: Richard Scott
Jane’s Defence Industry Analyst: Charles Forrester
Jane’s Senior Principal Analyst: Guy Anderson
Jane’s Asia-Pacific Industry Reporter: Jon Grevatt
Washington, DC, Bureau:
Americas Editor: Daniel Wasserbly
Design
Head of Design: Roberto Filistad GRACE JEAN Jane's Naval Reporter________________
• The US Navy’s VP-16 patrol squadron has
Chief Designer: David Playford
WASHINGTON, DC
deployed to Northeast Asia with six P-8A
Production
Director EMEA, Production Services: David Ward Poseidon aircraft and 12 aircrews
Production Controller: Martyn Buchanan The US Navy’s (USN’s) P-8A Poseidon
• The squadron conducted a pre-deployment
e-Publishing: Edward Allen, Richard Freeman maritime patrol aircraft programme has
site visit in August 2013
General achieved initial operational capability
Senior Vice President IHS &
(IOC) with the inaugural deployment of
Managing Director IHS Jane’s: Michael Dell
Group Publishing Director: Sean Howe two aircraft on 29 November and their In addition to the digital technology advances
Director, News and Analysis: James Green subsequent arrival at Kadena Air Base, enabled by the P-8 A, including communica
Director, EMEA Editing and Design: Sara Morgan
Administrative Assistant: Hannah Brockwell
Okinawa, Japan, on 1 December. tions and mission system improvements, the
During an interview with IHS Jane’s, airframe’s improved reliability and automa
Correspondents
The Americas: Peter Diekmeyer, Diego Gonzalez, the commanding officer of the USN’s first tion has allowed the USN to reduce the size of
Scott Gourley, Inigo Guevara, Jose Higuera, Joshua Kucera, operational P-8A squadron revealed that his its aircrew and maintenance teams.
Jeremy McDermott, Pedro Paulo Rezende, Patricia Samfelt,
Cesar Cruz Tantalean. Asia-Pacific: Gordon Arthur, Rahul team had conducted a pre-deployment site The P-8As are expected to fly similar mis
Bedi, Farhan Bokhari, J Michael Cole, Sebastien Falletti, visit in August 2013, flying one of the new sions as the P-3Cs in theatre, according to Cdr
Robert Foster, Julian Kerr, Dzirhan Mahadzir, Mrityunjoy
Mazumdar, Trefor Moss, Gavin Phipps, Kosuke Takahashi.
multi-mission aircraft out to Kadena, which Pennington. However, the theatre’s strategic
Europe: Victor Barreira, Nicholas Fiorenza, traditionally has been the navy’s maritime environment has changed recently with
Tim Glogan, David Ing, Bruce Jones, Jiri Kominek,
patrol reconnaissance deployment site. China declaring an Air Defence Identification
Georg Mader, Tim Ripley, Lale Sariibrahimoglu, Sebastian
Schulte, Menno Steketee, Radu Tudor, Theodore Valmas, The visit “validated that our training and Zone (ADIZ) over a part of the East China Sea
Paolo Valpolini. Middle East/Africa: Segun Adeyemi, our procedures were up to speed... and that that includes the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands,
Nicholas Blanford, Helmoed-Romer Heitman, Yaakov Katz,
Ellen Knickmeyer, Mohammed Najib. we’ll be able to effectively employ the P-8 in which are administered by Japan but claimed
NATO and EU Affairs: Brooks Tigner. the Western Pacific”, said Commander Wil by Taiwan and China.
liam Pennington Jr, commanding officer of The ADIZ appears to have had little impact
To order reprints of IHS Jane's articles/features please
contact adsales@ihsjanes.com or call +44 (0)20 8700 3738. Patrol Squadron 16 (VP-16). upon US military operations so far. Pentagon
Printed in the UK by Warners Midlands pic. Jane’s Defence VP-16 transitioned from the P-3C Orion officials have neither confirmed nor denied
Weekly is published 51 times a year at a US subscriber rate in mid-2012, upon its return from a Western Chinese reports of US reconnaissance air
of $560.
Pacific deployment. Following 18 months craft being flown through the restricted
Periodicals postage paid at Jamaica NY 11431. US
Postmaster: Send address changes to Jane’s Defence of training and preparation, the squadron zone. Given the P-8’s capabilities and its
Weekly, Air Business Ltd., c/o Worldnet Shipping Inc., 156- is deploying with six P-8As and 12 combat inherent intelligence, surveillance, and
15. 146th Avenue, 2nd Floor, Jamaica, NY 11434, USA.
aircrews in the USN’s first operational deploy reconnaissance mission, it can be assumed
ISSN 2048-3430. Registered in the UK as a newspaper.
ment of the new aircraft. that the navy may well be flying the new
Based upon Boeing’s 737 commercial aircraft through the region - an ideal
4TBPA airliner, the P-8A is replacing the P-3C, which proving ground for validating the system
has been the workhorse of the USN’s mari and its capabilities. ■
This publication was produced
{^Vrecyc-e time surveillance and anti-submarine warfare
using FSC® certified paper
patrol aircraft community since the 1960s. Go to ihs.com/ianes for more
Type 218 submarines from TKMS Given the RSN’s close relationship with
Sweden, the A 26 next-generation submarine
being developed by TKMS AB in Sweden had
Singapore’s Ministry of Defence (MIND- 1960s and acquired second hand from Swe long been considered a prime candidate in the
EF) has signed a contract with Germany’s den in the 1990s. Challenger-class replacement programme.
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) The Archer-class and Challenger-class However, in the final analysis, TKMS bid an
to procure two new Type 218SG subma submarines were built by what was Kockums, adaptation of its Type 214 design developed by its
rines, it announced on 2 December. now TKMS AB, in Malmo, Sweden. Kiel-based operation in Germany, France’s DCNS
The contract, the value of which was not MINDEF added that the Type 218SG also competed for the contract with its Scorpene.
revealed, includes a logistics package and submarines will have “significantly improved Singapore’s procurement of the Challenger-class
training in Germany for Republic of Singapore capabilities” over the Challenger-class, replacements is also notable in that it continues
Navy (RSN) personnel. MINDEF said including the incorporation of an air indepen Southeast Asian countries' recent acquisitions of
the submarines are scheduled to be delivered dent propulsion system. diesel-electric submarines as they look to bolster
from 2020. A spokesperson from MINDEF told IHS capability to secure their respective exclusive
MINDEF added that the new submarines, Jane’s that no other details about the contract economic zones.
together with the two ex-Royal Swedish Navy or the specifications of the Type 218SG were Malaysia took delivery in 2010 of its second
(RSwN) Archer-class (Type A 17) submarines being revealed at this time. Scorpene submarine from DCNS, Indonesia ordered
delivered to the RSN in 2011 and 2012, will Jon Grevatt in 2011 three Type 209s from South Korea’s
replace its ageing Challenger-class (Type A Jane’s Asia-Pacific Industry Analyst, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, and
12) submarines. The latter were built in the Bangkok Vietnam took delivery in November 2013 the first
of six Project 636 ’Kilo’-class submarines ordered
TKMS has offered Singapore from Russia in 2009.
an adaptation of its Type
Thailand also continues to consider the procure
214 design, a Greek version
of which, HS Papanikolis, is
ment of submarines and has purchased several
seen here during sea trials. related training systems. Additionally, the Philippines
reiterated in October its intention to procure three
submarines. IHS Jane's reported in June 2013 that
Myanmar Navy personnel had begun submarine
warfare training in Pakistan, a move that suggests
Myanmar is also considering a submarine purchase.
ST Engineering we engineer
possibilities
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2013
Annual Defence Report
Contents
The Americas
Europe
Asia Pacific
The Middle East and Africa
Industry
I
ore than 70 years since its potency was realised, Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers has also led to inflated The 2013 JDW Annual
Defence Report has
the aircraft carrier remains the primary symbol of project costs. Nevertheless, on 10 November the pro
been compiled by IHS
conventional power projection. The past 12 to 14 gramme reached a significant milestone with the lower Jane’s editorial staff
months have seen key developments in this regard. ing into place of the first carrier’s final hull section. in conjunction with
Having officially joined the ‘carrier club’ on 25 Sep Of all carrier-related developments in 2013, however, contributions from key
JDW correspondents
tember 2012 with the commissioning of Liaoning, China the most significant came from the US. On 17 November
worldwide.
marked a crucial milestone in its naval carrier aviation Gerald R Ford was launched: the lead ship of a new class of
development by achieving its first full arrested carrier carrier and the first to be fitted with an Electromagnetic
landings and take-offs from the vessel the following Aircraft Launch System. While the expected service entry Guy Anderson
month. A year on from that, on 28 November this year, of Ford in 2016 will, therefore, be a major milestone in Jeremy Binnie
China was already beginning to flaunt its new-found aircraft carrier development, events earlier in the year Nicholas de Larrinaga
status by steaming Liaoning through the Taiwan Strait for hold even more significance for power projection at sea. Peter Diekmeyer
the first time. On 14 May a fighter-sized combat aircraft with the call Peter Felstead
This event, combined with China’s attempt to exert sign ‘Salty Dog 502’ was catapult-launched from the deck Inigo Guevara
control over the East China Sea with the declaration of of Nimitz-class carrier USS George H W Bush, subsequently Jon Grevatt
an Air Defence Identification Zone on 23 November, conducting a series of‘touch and go’s. Then, on 10 July, James Hardy
points to a ramping up of tensions off the east coast of the same aircraft made its first arrested landing on Bush. Grace Jean
Asia in 2014 and would seem to confirm the US rebalance The significance of this, of course, is that ‘Salty Dog Julian Kerr
toward the Pacific as a prudent geopolitical move. 502’ is an X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System - Dem Caitlin Lee
India, meanwhile, launched its first indigenously onstrator. In terms of the history of air power at sea, the John Smith
designed carrier on 12 August, making it the fifth coun last development as momentous as this arguably took Kate Tringham
try to have built a mid-sized carrier in the modern era. place on 2 August 1917, when RN Squadron Commander Daniel Wasserbly
The country reinforced its power-projection creden Edwin Harris Dunning landed his Sopwith Pup on HMS
tials on 16 November with the commissioning of INS Furious, becoming the first man to land an aircraft on a
Vikramaditya, an ex-Russian aircraft carrier. Costing moving ship. Such was the difficulty of that achievement
almost three times the original estimate, Vikramaditya that Dunning was killed five days later, attempting his
allows India to edge ahead of China, at least while the ex- second landing of the day.
British carrier INS Viraat serves out its final few years. The reality that such a feat can now be achieved with
Back in the UK, a double U-turn over the design of the out a pilot should not be underestimated.
Royal Navy’s (RN’s) fleet of hopefully two new Queen Peter Felstead, JDW Editor
The US military in 2013 has weathered a difficult budget scenario that included a last-minute sequester,
civilian furloughs, a government shutdown, and a still-uncertain future. Meanwhile, officials have also been
transitioning the security lead in Afghanistan and rebalancing efforts towards the Asia-Pacific region
he halls of the US military’s massive cut to the Pentagon’s planned budget, and resent a USD52 billion cut against the White
gain concessions from the United States. with service support elements is less than for increased production rates in late Octo
NATO’s mandate for operations in Afghan 4%) of the overall DoD budget - and that ber 2013, marking a significant turnaround
istan ends on 31 December 2014, and the special forces operators provide strategic for a programme plagued by cost over
alliance is currently working to determine benefits by enhancing partners’ capacity and runs and schedule delays. While the exact
the scope of a follow-on Operation ‘Resolute gaining influence for ‘preventive and production ramp-up rates will be subject to
Support’ for the International Security shaping operations’. congressional approval, the Pentagon’s cur
Assistance Force (ISAF) there. However, rent plan is to build around 40 JSFs in FY 15
the United States will not commit troops US Air Force and 60 JSFs in FY16. Those numbers mark
to such an operation without an agreement Forced to walk a razor’s edge between mod a significant increase over FY13 and the
that, among other things, grants US troops ernisation and readiness due to sequestration, planned budget for FY14, which have called
immunity from local prosecution and allows the USAF in 2013 made a major decision to for an F-35 production plateau at around 30
them to operate outside bases - and among protect its top three acquisition priorities jets per year.
the Afghan population - in certain circum while letting a variety of other efforts slip. Despite the progress, however, Gen Welsh
stances. The inability to reach a similar The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II told IHS Jane’s in July that he would feel like
accord with Baghdad caused Washington to JSF, the Boeing KC-46A aerial refuelling he dodged a bullet if the USAF managed to
withdraw its forces from Iraq in 2011. tanker, and a next-generation bomber all purchase the 1,763 F-35A aircraft in the
As operations wind down in Afghanistan, stayed on track in 2013, but the progress service’s programme of record. If that goal
the Pentagon is trying to shift its focus more came at a high cost. were achieved, Gen Welsh said he would be
towards the Asia-Pacific region in accordance General Mark Welsh became the USAF’s “very happy” with the size and quality of
with the White House’s 2012 Defense chief of staff in August 2012 as the US gov the USAF’s tactical aircraft fleet.
Strategic Guidance. ernment began to brace itself for sequestra The KC-46A programme, scheduled to
Indeed, Pentagon officials have said tion’s impact. Since then he has repeatedly begin replacing the USAF’s ageing KC-135
the DoD’s FY14 budget proposal seeks to warned that the USAF’s readiness - already Stratotanker fleet in 2016, also had a rela
support this Asia-Pacific shift by funding declining for over a decade - would continue tively good year. Prime contractor Boeing
programmes and activities that underline to suffer as the service attempted to protect began manufacturing the first tanker in
a larger presence in the area and enhanced its top acquisition priorities in a more aus June 2013 under a USD3.9 billion engineer
capability for countering anti-access/area tere budget environment. ing and manufacturing development (EMD)
denial strategies. “We don’t believe modernisation is contract that includes designing, testing, and
Among the systems that officials have optional for the air force,” Gen Welsh told building the first four tankers, which will ini
noted would be funded specifically for reporters in November. “The trade is between tially serve as test aircraft. The EMD contract
their utility in the region are the US Navy’s readiness today and capability tomorrow.” includes options for additional annual pro
(USN’s) Virginia-class nuclear-powered The F-35 programme, which involves duction lots, which, if exercised, would yield
attack submarine and the Virginia Payload building a stealthy fighter for the United 179 KC-46 A tankers at a peak production
Module, the P-8A Poseidon multimission States and eight partner nations, saw the rate of 15 aircraft a year through to 2027.
maritime aircraft, the MQ-4C Triton benefit of this protective approach in 2013. Research and development (R&D) on the
unmanned aircraft system, the US Air Pentagon officials declared the F-35 ready USAF’s developmental Long-Range Strike -
Force’s (USAF’s) in-development KC-46
refuelling tanker, the F-35 Lightning II Joint
Strike Fighter (JSF), an eventual new stealth
bomber, and US Army missile defence sys
tems and precision strike weapons.
DoD leaders have also suggested they
will seek to protect funding for US Special
Operations Forces (SOF), which are viewed
as playing an increasingly important role in
supporting the DoD’s efforts to continue to
project influence abroad even as it cuts end
strength from the services.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton
Carter noted in June that the SOF com
munity was comprised of a highly skilled
workforce that could not be mass produced
or quickly rebuilt in a crisis and would be
needed for future roles and missions.
Carter argued that US Special Operations
Command (SOCOM) represents a high
The US Marine Corps in October telegraphed a greater commitment to the JLTV programme. AM
return on investment - SOCOM’s budget General, with its BRV-0 submission shown here, joined competitors Lockheed Martin and Oshkosh in
this year is less than 2% (and combined the JLTV’s current development phase.
It is still unclear how such a change might or delayed four or five years.
affect procurement and other accounts, as Army acquisition executive Heidi Shyu
this depends, among other things, on what specifically said that “the GCV, being an
brigade structures come out of the force. expensive vehicle, is at risk” with seques
The army does appear to be favouring lighter tration. She also flatly said that the Armed
rather than heavier (or armoured) brigade Aerial Scout (AAS) programme, meant
combat teams (BCTs). Service officials to replace ageing OH-5 8 Kiowa Warrior
expect to have a better idea of those changes helicopters, would not happen as a new start
in the FY15 budget plan. because it would push out too many other
Regardless, the active-duty army is to programmes already on the books.
draw down to at least 490,000 soldiers by Army planners are hoping to have an
FY17, although Army Chief of Staff General Armoured Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) - a
Ray Odierno revealed in October that the replacement for the decades-old Ml 13-
service is considering accelerating that to series armoured personnel carriers - poised
FY15 in order to balance sequestration’s for rapid production in case armoured forces
cuts across end strength, readiness, and are needed in the future.
modernisation budgets. Current plans would see the AMPV pro
Army end strength of more than 490,000 duced over 13 years, in part to keep budgets
is funded through overseas contingency low but also to keep the platform ready for
operation (OCO) funds, so the army would faster production in case the army needs to
need to reach that level sooner in order to deploy its armoured forces. A contract award
alleviate sequestration’s pressure on the for the programme is expected sometime in
base budget. late 2014. BAE Systems has said it expects
The army is also reorganising its brigades to compete with a platform based on the
as it drops from 45 to 32 BCTs; each will Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, while
US Army soldiers on a joint clearance operation
add a third manoeuvre battalion, while an with Afghan police in western Kandahar. General Dynamics has said it may submit a
additional engineer and fires capabilities will variant - possibly tracked - of the Stryker
be placed in each armour and infantry BCT. sions appear to be dependent on which of wheeled combat vehicle.
The service is inactivating 12 BCTs at first those plans is ultimately implemented. As for lighter wheeled platforms, the JLTV
and then one additional unit while shifting McHugh said about 485 acquisition pro programme began testing in September for
away from Europe and towards the Pacific, grammes have so far been negatively affected its 14-month EMD phase after competing
not just rhetorically but with bodies and force by a federal government shutdown in the first contractor teams AM General, Lockheed
structure. Ten of the inactivating units are two weeks of FY14, by sequestration, and by Martin, and Oshkosh each delivered their
to be taken from US installations through to stop-gap CR budget measures. prototypes. The effort is scheduled in FY15
FY17, two of which are from Germany, leav “So while we’re not set at this point to seek Pentagon approval to release a
ing two BCTs in Europe. During the Cold War to make any announcements about the final request for proposals (RfP) and then
the army’s armoured units in Europe were Ground Combat Vehicle [GCV], I find it downselect to one contractor.
considered a key strategic bulkhead against difficult to envision any significant number Meanwhile, the army is working to plan
Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces, but that era of our development initiatives that won’t for its future and in late 2012 rolled out its
and framework have long passed. be affected, some very significantly and Capstone Concept (ACC) that essentially
As part of this shift the army is adding some we will have to cancel,” McHugh said revised the service’s predictions for what
senior personnel in the Pacific while reduc in October. The GCV was once among the the future operational environment might
ing those positions elsewhere. army’s top acquisition priorities, but its look like. Among other things it posits that
There are also now about 82,000 US future is now quite uncertain. the speed and reach of human interaction
Army soldiers assigned to the Pacific; many McHugh added that other programmes and increased access to military capabilities
of them were committed to roles serving will see their schedules “stretched out, are going to continue making the opera
in Iraq or Afghanistan to meet deployment which presents problems with costs, cost tional environment even more unpredict
needs but have since been prioritised back to per units”, and he noted that even high-pri- able and complex.
the Pacific. ority efforts could be affected by continued The ACC will, along with other guidance,
As for how modernisation efforts will fare sequestration, including GCV development be used in conjunction with wargaming to
during the drawdown, Secretary of the US and networking programmes. create army operating concepts.
Army John McHugh said that for FY15 the Similarly, Gen Odierno said in October One of the interesting lessons that
service is developing two five-year budget he “needs” the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle emerged from studying the ACC and from
plans, called Program Objective Memoranda (JLTV) and the GCV, as well as upgrades to subsequent wargaming in 2013 was the dif
(POMs): one based on the White House’s the UH-60 Black Hawk utility helicopter, ficulty of counter-proliferation operations: a
official budget request and one based on AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, and CH-47 timely lesson given the challenges that arose
sequestration funding levels. Chinook cargo helicopter. However, he with Syria’s chemical weapons. The army’s
Most major acquisition programme deci- stressed that some of those may be cancelled study was of a failed-state scenario, where
Pedestal-Mounted Air Defense Missile System (PMADS), is a fully automated and mobile air defense system using VSH0RAD missiles to counter air
threats. PMADS is designed for low-level air defense of stationary and moving forward troops, convoys and tactical assets in the battlefield.
PMADS can be operated as an autonomous/stand-alone air defense system or as part of an integrated air defense system for coordinated operation.
The gyro-stabilized, electric driven, modular turret equipped with on-board electro-optical sensors for day and night surveillance and target
acquisition, enables incorporation of a variety of VSH0RAD missile launchers and a 12.7 mm Machine Gun.
PMADS can be mounted on a variety of tactical wheeled or tracked vehicles, providing shoot-on-the-move capability.
aselsan
marketing@aselsan.com.tr
and conventionally powered submarines, their respective aerospace industries, with of December 2013 there are three tension
KC-390 tanker-transport aircraft, and the former embarking on a comprehensive points that could lead to potential inter
Guarani armoured personnel carriers remain upgrade ofitsl4EmbraerEMB-312 Tucano state conflict in 2014: the Gulf of Fonseca
a priority that has secured continued fund armed trainers and the latter assembling 16 maritime dispute between El Salvador and
ing, although money for the FX-2 multirole KAI KT-1 Wong Bee basic trainers. Honduras; increasing tension over the Inter
fighter and PROSUPER surface warfare Mexico continues to use its military national Court of Justice’s November 2012
programmes remains stalled. as the main force fighting armed groups ruling favouring the expansion of Nicaragua’s
Cuba, meanwhile, is building Damen throughout its territory, but the Mexican Exclusive Economic Zone around Colombia’s
4207 and 5009 patrol vessels for Venezu armed forces have redeployed and are now Caribbean archipelagos; and Venezuela’s
ela and continues to rely on local recycling using more surgical, special forces tactics. increasingly unstable economic situation.
and re-engineering programmes to produce A large modernisation programme has been Venezuela’s stability is of regional concern
platforms such as BPH-390 missile-armed launched that includes production of DN-XI as it threatens to increase friction with the
patrol vessels and 6x6 and T-34 tank-based 4x4 tactical armoured vehicles along with country’s neighbours, such as Guyana, a
self-propelled howitzers. continued production of 3,600-ton BAL- large part over which Venezuela maintains
For Colombia, the Havana Peace talks class amphibious vessels, Damen Stan Patrol a persistent claim. Tensions have not been
between the government in Bogota and the 4207 coastal patrol boats, and Dockstavar- alleviated by the Venezuelan government,
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia vet IC16M interceptor craft under licence. which has requested a USD5.9 billion loan
(FARC) insurgent group have stalled and In 2013 the Mexican armed forces from Russia to finance new defence procure
counter-insurgency operations there con ordered 10 Zlin 242 Guru light aircraft/ ment in 2014.
tinue. Growing instability in Venezuela, ris trainers, 12 Beechcraft T-6C+ Texan II train
ing tensions with Nicaragua, and a flight of ers, one Lockheed Martin C-l 30J-30 trans Canada
Russian Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bombers port, 4 Airbus Military CN235 Persuader Canada’s defence industry in 2013 was char
over Colombian airspace in early November maritime patrol aircraft, and 7 AgustaWest- acterised by plenty of talk but little action.
caused Colombian lawmakers to shift their land AW109SP helicopters as part of ongo On paper, notionally defence-friendly
focus towards reassessing the country’s con ing modernisation efforts. ministers from the conservative Harper
ventional defence capabilities and not just Likewise, several Central American government have announced scores of
those for irregular warfare. countries, including El Salvador, Guatemala, defence procurements for land, sea, and air
Congressional concerns are likely to and Honduras, have begun programmes to assets. However, delays, compliance issues,
result in a new set of requirements from modernise their ageing inventories. Hondu budget cuts and more mean that few pur
2014, with fighters, lead-in fighter trainers, ras received a significant boost with delivery chase orders have actually been issued.
and self-propelled artillery topping the list. of the first of two Damen Stan Patrol 4207 The upshot is that Canada is awash with
Colombia and Chile continue to build Fass- patrol vessels, while El Salvador has sought ‘zombie’ procurements, which have a
mer OPV-8O offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to acquire 10 Cessna A-3 7B Dragonfly light semblance of life but are essentially like the
at local shipyards and the former has begun strike aircraft from Chile. walking dead.
to export naval products, with the first of The Latin American defence and secu The latest programme to stall was a
four LPR-40 river patrol boats delivered rity environment is expected to remain USD4.74 billion (CAD5 billion) contract
to Brazil in 2013. dominated by counter-insurgency opera for 28 Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone marine
Colombia and Peru are also strengthening tions requiring asymmetric solutions, but as helicopters. Just four test units have been
shipped in a programme that was awarded
The Brazilian Army has been working to boost its air-defence capabilities for the 2014 FIFA World in 2004, but there has been little progress
Cup and 2016 Olympics Games and in May began receiving Krauss-Maffei Wegmann Gepard 1A2 since then. Competing explanations for the
self-propelled anti-aircraft gun systems, among other weapons.
delays centre around design and specifica
tion changes related to the 2009 crash of a
civilian version of the Cyclone that caused
17 deaths.
Minister of National Defence Rob Nichol
son appears to have lost patience with the
project. In October his department and Pub
lic Works and Government Services Canada
initiated a ‘data-gathering engagement’ that,
among other things, asked alternative pro
viders Eurocopter and AgustaWestland, as
well as Sikorsky itself, to suggest solutions
to get the project back on track.
The marine helicopter programme’s delays
mirror those in several other defence procure
ment initiatives. For example, the future of
the Royal Canadian Army’s USD 1.8 9 billion
www.jenoptik.com/dcs
Sharing Excellence in Defense & Civil Systems. info.dcs@jenoptik.com
While many of the traditional major European defence markets continued to suffer falling budgets in
2013, Turkey and Poland cemented their place as emerging European defence players. Meanwhile,
Russia continued apace with its massive military rejuvenation efforts
efence budgets continued to fall in Ocalan in March. For its part, the Turkish gov debut outside Russia at June’s Paris Air Show,
ihs mm/ianeR
» Europe
fifth-generation F-X fighter programme in LPM subsequently cut France’s MALE UAV
May. The aircraft has been designed under a requirement down to 12 aircraft. France
24-month concept design contract, awarded has remained largely tight-lipped about its
in 2 011, and is planned to eventually replace MQ-9 purchase; while a contract is known to
Turkey’s F-16s. With this work scheduled to have been signed, the eventual number to be
be completed by the end of 2013, Turkey is purchased remains unclear. However, French
soon expected to decide whether to further personnel began training on the platform
pursue what is a highly ambitious, potentially in the US in September and French Defence
challenging, and expensive project. Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed in
Another major milestone for Turkey’s October that two Reapers, purchased for
aviation industry came in August with the EUR150 million, will be active in the Sahel
maiden flight of TAI’s Hiirku§-A turboprop before the end of 2 013.
basic trainer that ended a 60-year hiatus in the The Netherlands followed France’s
production and design of manned fixed-wing example in November, announcing its intent
aircraft in Turkey. Three versions of the air to purchase four MQ.-9 Reapers, which, like
craft are currently planned: basic (Hurku§-A), Italy’s, will be unarmed. The Dutch Reapers
advanced (Hiirku§-B), and armed (Hiirku§-C). should become operational in 2016, while
In September, Turkey began contract discus the UK’s final batch of five MQ-9s are set
sions with TAI for serial production of 15 to enter service imminently. It was also
Hiirku§-As. Meanwhile, in October the coun revealed in late October that the UK’s BAE
try issued a formal request for proposals (RfP) Systems Taranis UCAV technology demon
to purchase 50 basic turboprop trainers, with strator had made its maiden flight, although
deliveries planned to run from 2015-16. a formal announcement from the UK MoD
Poland also made progress on buying new remains outstanding.
trainer aircraft in 2013, formally restarting This year saw the start of Airbus Military
efforts to replace its ageing TS-11 Iskra jet A400M Atlas transport aircraft deliver
trainer aircraft on 25 February, when the ies. The aircraft, the first military airlifter
Ministry of National Defence (MND) launched conceived to meet civilian air worthiness
its advanced jet trainer (AJT) competition. standards, received its full civil type certi
The successor to the previous Lead-in Fighter fication on 13 March. This was followed in
Trainer (LIFT) programme that was cancelled July by the A400M receiving approval for
in November 2011, the project aims to pur its military type certification, after which
chase eight jet trainers included in a holistic aircraft MSN007 was delivered to the French
training package. The programme made rapid Direction Generale de l’Armement (DGA)
pace throughout the year, with initial propos on 1 August. A second aircraft was delivered
als received on 7 June and the three final bids to the DGA on 6 November, with a third -
submitted on 20 November. A decision is now which made its maiden flight on 9 August -
expected in early 2014 on whether Poland planned for imminent delivery to the Turkish
opts for the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master, Air Force as JDW closed for press.
the BAE Systems Hawk AJT, or the Korean Looking ahead to 2014, theA400M
Aerospace Industries T-50 Golden Eagle, programme should also mark first deliver
offered via Lockheed Martin UK. ies to the UK Royal Air Force (RAF) and
The beginning of the year saw Germany’s German Luftwaffe. With the programme
planned purchase of five Northrop Grumman/ now delivering to customers, Airbus Military
EADS RQ-4E Euro Hawk UAVs stopped by hopes to expand its 174-strong order book
the spiralling cost of certifying the aircraft to for the aircraft. Although already contracted
fly in civilian airspace. Originally intended to to deliver aircraft to eight different nations,
provide a high-altitude signals intelligence only one of these (Malaysia) is an export
(SIGINT) capability, fears that the cost of gain beyond the original seven launch customers
ing airspace certification for the aircraft could within the Organisation of Joint Armament
cost as much as EUR600 million (USD815.4 Co-Operation (OCCAR).
million) saw the programme cancelled in May. 2013 also saw the RAF begin to recapital
Meanwhile, the General Atomics MQ.-9 ise its airborne SIGINT capability, with the
Reaper UAV had a good year in Europe, delivery of the first of three Boeing RC-135W
securing two new customers in the shape of Rivet Joint aircraft from L-3 Communications
France and the Netherlands. France formally on 12 November.
requested a USD 1.5 billion package of 16 Meanwhile, the question of how the
Reapers from the US in June, although the smaller, poorer nations of Europe maintain
a credible and affordable air defence capabil shows of the year: IDEF in Turkey, MSPO in
ity only gets more challenging as national Poland, and DSEI in the UK. In particular
budgets shrink and price inflation within the IDEF, in Istanbul in May, saw a flurry of
industry continues to rise. Besides abandon new vehicles making debuts, with Turkish
ing the capability and relying on another land systems firm Otokar displaying three
country to protect their airspace, as with new vehicles: the Ural and Cobra II 4x4
the Baltic states and NATO, procurement of armoured patrol vehicles and the Tulpar PROTECTS YOUR MISSION
second-hand aircraft, the lease of new/old air tracked infantry fighting vehicle (IFV).
craft, or the attempt to maintain ever-ageing FNSS unveiled its Kaplan STA-Px tracked
aircraft in an airworthy condition remain the armoured reconnaissance vehicle and its
only available options to the poorer European Korkut amphibious armoured tracked
nations. This year saw a number of nations platform, while Aselsan released further
take different paths to square this particu details on its Hisar-A design for Turkey’s
larly tricky circle. low-altitude air defence missile system
Romania’s plans to replace its Mikoyan (T-Laladmis) requirement and the Hisar-B
MiG-21 Lancer (upgraded ‘Fishbed’) fleet design for the medium-range air defence
continued apace in 2013 in spite of opposi system (T-Malamids) programme. Turkey
tion from the European Commission. In June subsequently conducted the first test firings
Romania issued a document to procure used of the Hisar-A system on 6 September.
Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters from Portugal, At London’s DSEI show in September Nex-
while in July legislation backing the purchase ter Systems unveiled its new Tactical Infantry
was approved by Romanian President Traian Transport & Utility System (Titus) 6x6
Basecu. In order to muster enough aircraft armoured personnel carrier (APC), initially
to sell to Romania, Portugal purchased three aimed at the export market. Patria unveiled a
F-16s from the US in August and the deal was new, as yet unnamed, 8x8 vehicle referred to
completed in October, with a contract signa as the Next Generation Armoured Wheeled
ture for 12 F-16 aircraft signed between Roma Vehicle Concept, building on the company’s
nia and Portugal and valued at about USD250 experience with the 8x8 Armoured Modu
million. Romania subsequently requested lar Vehicle. General Dynamics unveiled a
a weapon package for the aircraft, worth new steel-hulled version of its Ocelot light
USD457 million, from the US in November. protected patrol vehicle (LPPV). The company
In contrast to Romania’s decision to also saw a further order for 24 Ocelots,
replace its MiG-2 Is, in June Croatia opted to known in UK service as Foxhounds, for the
forsake purchasing a new fighter and instead British Army, bringing the UK’s total orders of
decided to upgrade its existing fleet of MiG- the vehicle to 400.
2 Ibis ‘Fishbed-Ls’. A contract was signed by Poland’s MSPO show, held in Kielce in KMW
KRAUSS-MAFFE! WEG MANN
the Croatian MoD with Ukrspecexport on 8 September, saw Obrum, in partnership with
July, with the firm to upgrade seven fighters BAE Systems, unveil its PL-01 AFV concept,
of the Croatian Air Force and Air Defence, aimed at the Direct Support Vehicle (DSV)
which will also purchase a further five MiG- element of the Polish Armed Forces’ Univer
21s from Ukroboronprom’s State Enterprise sal Modular Tracked Platform (UMPG) pro
(SE) Odessa Aviation Plant. gramme. AMZ Kutno, meanwhile, debuted The predator
Much like Croatia, and unlike neighbour its Bobr 4x4 amphibious vehicle, touted to
among all MBTs
the Czech Republic, with its lease of Gripens, replace Poland’s BRDM-2 scout cars, and
Slovakia opted in September to upgrade its the LPU 4x4 light strike vehicle, aimed at ■ superior firepower
12 MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’ fighters. In theory Slo a requirement for Polish special forces and ■ unique mobility
vakia’s ‘Fulcrums’ shouldn’t need upgrading, reconnaissance units. Huta Stalowa Wola
■ excellent protection
having already undergone a modernisation (HSW) unveiled a version of its Rak 120 mm
programme from 2004-8 to extend their mortar system installed on a Rheinmetall ■ optimal command
service life up to 2035. However, a familiar Defence Marder 1A3 infantry fighting and control
tale of poor programme management and the vehicle (IFV) hull - understood to be under ■ unmatched reliability
Slovakian MoD failing to enforce past sup development for a Chilean requirement.
port arrangements saw widespread cannibali- Jelcz-Komponenty, part of HSW, showed its
| www.kmweg.com |
sation of aircraft due to a shortage of spares. new 443.32 4x4 truck, aimed at a large Pol
ish requirement.
Land Throughout 2013 Poland was involved
A whole host of new vehicle platforms were in negotiations with suppliers to increase
unveiled at the three major European land its inventory of Rosomak (Patria AMV) 8x8
Maritime territorial spats, Indian procurement hits and misses, uncertainty in Afghanistan, arms
build- ups in Southeast Asia, and the continuing rise of China: regional trends stayed the same in
2013 even as the situation on the ground changed
he Asia-Pacific region’s status as the concerns whether the government institu since the transition timetable was announced
Karzai continued to challenge US plans for the Despite this fiscal environment, officials test programme for a submarine-launched
post-2014 security in the country: a move that continued to hold out hope for a deal with version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise
unsurprisingly frustrated Washington but per China on submarines, following on from the missile, while in August the navy activated
haps underscored the complexity of the situ successful completion of the Sword-class the reactor aboard ballistic missile submarine
ation facing the Afghan government. Karzai's frigate programme and ongoing co-produc- (SSBN) INS Arihant: derived from the Soviet
irritation at unilateral US moves to hold peace tion of the FC-l/JF-17 Thunder multirole ’Charlie I'-class design that was built in India
talks with the Taliban in Qatar hampered US combat aircraft. with Russian assistance. Once in service,
hopes for a status of forces agreement and In September Pakistani officials made Arihant will constitute the nucleus of India's
raised fears that the US forces may see a repeat more overtures to Beijing to increase defence retaliatory nuclear deterrent.
of their unplanned withdrawal from Iraq. industrial ties, while Islamabad also looked to However, there were inevitable problems
Meanwhile, the reconstruction programme South Korea and Turkey as possible part in India, not least an explosion that killed
under way in Afghanistan was again dogged ners in defence joint ventures. In February 18 submariners aboard INS Sindhurakshah
by accusations of waste, mismanagement, Turkish technology and systems engineering a Type 877EKM variant of the ‘Kilo’ class.
fraud and corruption. The US Special Inspec house STM signed a contract with Pakistan's Meanwhile, three Kolkata-class (Project 15A)
tor General for Afghanistan Reconstruction Ministry of Defence Production to provide destroyers continue to sit idle at Mazagon
(SIGAR) reported in October that “Afghani technical and material support for the con Docks in Mumbai due to system integration
stan’s endemic corruption constitutes one of struction of a new double-hull fleet tanker issues. It is also notable that many of 2013's
the most serious obstacles to the effective and for the Pakistan Navy. 'successes' were programmes that should
efficient use of US reconstruction dollars. As have been completed years ago.
the United States provides more of its develop South Asia The Indian Air Force (IAF) had an equally
ment assistance on-budget - directly to the India was a case of the same old same old mixed 2013, with a number of important
Afghan government, rather than through US- in 2013: some real progress towards armed deliveries offset by major programme delays.
managed contracts - theft and fraud will pose forces modernisation undermined by corrup Of 10 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III stra
an even greater risk to US taxpayer dollars.” tion allegations, bureaucratic foot dragging, tegic airlifters on order, 4 were inducted in
Operationally a SIGAR audit found the and good old-fashioned incompetence. 2013 and there are plans to order a further 6
Afghan National Army (ANA) had failed to There were qualified successes across all by 2022. The IAF also plans to buy six more
consistently use or update its inventory to three services. In terms of new platforms Lockheed Martin C-l 30-30J tactical trans
track spare parts - leading to capability gaps entering service, the navy had perhaps the port aircraft, which will be operated from
and waste - while it also pointedly complained best year, the highlight being the commis Forward Base Support Unit (FBSU) Panagarh
to US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel that sioning in mid-November of INS Vikrama- in the east.
the US Army had declined to bar from contract ditya, its refurbished former Soviet Navy In August a C-130J-30 landed at the 5,065
awards "43 companies with ties to the Taliban, aircraft carrier. A MiG-29 squadron was m high Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) advanced
Al-Qaeda, or the Haqqani Network". established earlier in the year that will supply landing ground (ALG), which is located in the
In Pakistan there were glimmers of hope the ship's air arm. Ladakh region about 7 km from the line of
when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was India also launched the hull of Vikrant, the actual control (LoAC): India's disputed border
returned to power in May for the first time navy's indigenous aircraft carrier, in August. with China.
since being deposed in a 1999 coup, promised In June it commissioned INS Trikand, the last In the past the Indian armed forces have
negotiations with the Pakistani Taliban and of six Russian-built Project 135.6 Talwar- used mule trains, helicopters, and airdrops
an end to US unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) class (Krivak III) guided missile frigates, and to resupply troops along the LoAC. "The IAF
attacks on suspected Islamist sites near the received the first three of eight Boeing P-8I will now be in a better position to meet the
country's border with Afghanistan. Neptune multimission maritime patrol aircraft. requirements of our land forces, which are
However, Sharif's inability - or unwilling The navy also made progress in commis heavily dependent on the air bridge for sus
ness - to secure the latter meant the former sioning smaller vessels, which play a vital role tenance in these high and inhospitable areas
was also scuppered, along with any chances in the littoral patrol missions that became [along the LoAC]," the air force said.
for a peace deal that could lift Pakistan out a priority after the 2008 Mumbai terrorist The six additional C-l 30s will be deployed
of a destructive cycle of terrorism that has attack. Early in 2013 it received Vaibhav, the in the island territories of Andaman and
paralysed the country. last of three Vishwast-class offshore patrol Nicobar off India's east coast and along the
The continuing economic crisis meant mili vessels, and two 50 m inshore patrol vessels: LoAC in support of the Indian Army's new
tary procurement was lower on Sharif's list of Rajdoot from Garden Reach Shipbuilders and mountain strike corps.
priorities, although the federal defence bud Engineers' Rajabagan Yard and Rani Avan- To realise this, the IAF is spending
get did increase by 10% to PKR6 2 5.3 billion tibai from Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. These INR21.73 billion to upgrade the Nyoma air-
(USD6.7 billion): the equivalent to 2.71% of deliveries followed those in mid-March, by base (altitude 4,053 m) in Ladakh, which was
GDP. The increase was lower than the 16.6% Sri Lankan boat builder Solas Marine Lanka, reactivated in September 2009 after being
average annual rises that have occurred since of the first four of 80 composite-hulled fast disused for 45 years. The IAF is also spending
2008 and continued a trend of declining interception craft (FIC). INR7.2 billion to upgrade the Kargil airstrip
increases over the past five years. There were also signs of movement in the in northern Kashmir and seven advanced
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» ANNUAL DEFENCE REPORT 2013 Asia Pacific
energy deposits in the Bay of Bengal and intent on resuming nuclear material produc PLAN'S first amphibious flat-top.
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) protection, tion and enrichment at its Yongbyon complex. Alternatively, the block could be part
it is unsurprising that the navy saw the lion's Given the international community’s lack of of China's first indigenous aircraft carrier,
share of procurement. In January a senior any enthusiasm for negotiations with Kim although the smart money suggests that
military official told reporters Bangladesh Jong-un, it is likely that the outcome of the any carrier developments will take place at
was in negotiations to buy submarines from ongoing nuclear talks with Iran may prove Dalian, where Liaoning - the Kuznetsov-class
China. Options are believed to include Type more significant than any initiatives in Asia in carrier that entered PLAN service in 2012 -
035 Ming-class orType 039G Song-class 2014, given that if a deal is possible with Teh was rebuilt.
boats. The acquisition target date set by the ran, then the same may be true for Pyongyang. China also had an eventful year in the air.
navy, but apparently not yet approved by On the conventional weapon front, the Although there were no fifth-generation pro
parliament, is 2019. most notable incident involving North Korea totypes to unveil in 2013, perhaps of greater
In May the US Coast Guard (USCG) hot- was the interception in the Panama Canal of significance to Beijing's strategic plans was
transferred high-endurance cutter Jarvis one of its cargo ships with 25 ISO containers the first flight of the XAC Y-20 heavylift
(WHEC 725) to the Bangladesh Navy (BN). of Soviet-era Cuban materiel hidden under transport aircraft on 26 January. If it enters
Renamed BNS Somudro Joy, it is the navy's 200,000 sacks of sugar. The equipment, production, the Y-20 will fill a massive gap
largest vessel and gives Bangladesh another which included two MiG-21 fighters, 15 in China's strategic airlift capability and help
helicopter-capable ship with high endur MiG-21 engines, S-75 air-defence systems, to bring it up to parity with neighbours and
ance for persistent patrolling of its EEZ and missiles, and command-and-control vehicles, competitors such as Australia, India, and the
maritime zones. seemed to confirm previous reports that United States.
North Korea is struggling to keep its MiG-21 The abundance of UAV programmes under
Northeast Asia fleet in the air. The Korean People's Navy may way in China and the continued lack of trans
Changes of leadership in China, Japan and be having similar issues with its surface fleet parency about programmes of record meant
South Korea in 2013 have had a major effect following rare admissions of accidents - and it was impossible to create a comprehensive
on the strategic outlook for Northeast Asia. sailors’ deaths - late in the year. picture of developments in this field. Indeed,
However, underlying defence trends have not China, under the new leadership of Xi Jin- the IHS Jane’s report on the 15th Beijing
changed significantly in the past 12 months. ping, came out hard against the North Korean Aviation Expo held on 25-28 September
The key threat to the status quo remains nuclear test as it continued to deal with the concluded that "the Chinese unmanned aerial
North Korea, which followed up Decem consequences of the US rebalance to the vehicle [UAV] market is massively frag
ber 2012's successful launch of an Unha-3 Pacific and increasing regional disquiet over its mented, with various bodies competing for
space launch vehicle with a nuclear test - its growing military clout and territorial claims. the same government contracts or segments
third - in February 2013. The following two The PLA Navy's modernisation programme of the export market".
months saw a major escalation in tensions maintained a high tempo. Rumours of a new However, a number of intriguing contend
around the peninsula that were not helped ‘Type 081’ landing helicopter dock swirled ers did break cover in 2013. One was the Cai
by the US' decision to deploy Northrop but are yet to be substantiated by satellite Hong 4 (CH-4 or Rainbow 4): a medium-
Grumman B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on a imagery or spotter-sourced photography, altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned
long-range bombing drill. although an intriguing block that appeared combat air vehicle (UCAV) developed by the
The cycle of tensions eventually ran its in a dry dock at Shanghai's Changxing Island China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynam
course, although North Korea appears to be shipyard in January could be evidence of the ics (CAAA). Technical staff claimed it had
Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and US Navy landing craft air cushion simulate a beach-front
assault on Red Beach at Camp Pendleton during the ‘Dawn Blitz 2013’ amphibious exercise in June.
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Asia Pacific ANNUAL DEFENCE REPORT 2013 «
surface-to-air missile on its fleet of six Lafay itarian assistance and disaster response tools would acquire 12 EA-18G Growler electronic
ette-class (Kangting-class) frigates in 2017. the AFP needs. attack aircraft at a cost of AUD1.5 billion
The RoCN is also scheduled to receive a new Meanwhile, the Singaporean armed (USD 1.6 billion) rather than convert to
fast combat supply ship in 2014 after CSBC forces continued to maintain their edge as the Growler configuration 12 of the Royal
Corporation launched Pan Shi on 5 November. the region's most capable fighting force. Australian Air Force’s 24 in-service F/A-18F
There were no announced deliveries of new Super Hornet strike fighters. All 12 Growlers
Southeast Asia materiel in 2013, but in September Defence will have been delivered by 2017.
The Spratly islands and the associated territo Minister Ng Eng Hen revealed plans to The Liberal-National Party coalition gov
rial disagreements again made headlines in upgrade the Republic of Singapore Air Force's ernment elected in September promised an
2013, although there were none of the land Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fleet, while earlier increase in defence spending from 1.5 9% of
grabs seen in 2012. in the year a senior US Air Force official stated GDP to 2% over the next decade.
Nonetheless, the shadow of China's expan that Singapore was looking seriously at the The coalition also lost no time in initiating
sive territorial claims loomed large as ASEAN short take-off/vertical landing (STOVL) ver Operation ‘Sovereign Borders’: its conten
members built up their maritime surveillance sion of the Lockheed Martin F-35. tious military-led border protection policy
capabilities. A number of nations signed con In January ST Engineering announced it that includes turning back asylum-seeker ves
tracts for better coastal radar systems, while had secured a contract to design and build sels to Indonesia when it is safe to do so.
Malaysia made perhaps the greatest invest eight 80 m, 1,200-tonne patrol vessels for Final decisions on the acquisition of new
ment when it announced the establishment the Republic of Singapore Navy as replace submarines, F-35s and high-altitude, long-
of a new naval command at Bintulu. The new ments for the existing Fearless class. Delivery endurance UAVs for maritime surveillance are
base will be about 80 km from James Shoal: of the first of class is planned for 2016 and all expected by early 2015 in tandem with a new
a submerged bank that is China's southern eight vessels are to be operational by 2020. Defence White Paper.
most claim in the South China Sea and was An international Fleet Review in Septem
visited by a four-ship PLAN flotilla in March. Australia ber, marking the centenary of the first entry to
The base will also help Malaysia deal with any Fourteen years of high-tempo operational Sydney harbour of the Royal Australian Navy’s
further events in Sabah, where the Malaysian deployments by the Australian Defence Force (RAN’s) fleet, drew ships from 20 navies.
armed forces spent much of the year dealing (ADF) ended in December with the conclu Meanwhile, construction proceeded on
with Sulu separatists. sion of its combat role in Afghanistan in the schedule on the RAN’s two 27,800-tonne
Vietnam, which has first-hand experi wake of earlier operations in East Timor, Iraq, Canberra-class landing helicopter docks, the
ence of Chinese assertiveness in the South and the Solomon Islands. first of which will be delivered in early 2014
China Sea, received the first of six ‘Kilo’-class More than 1,000 troops were withdrawn and the second in 2015.
submarines from Russia and in August signed from their base at Tarin Kowt in Uruzgan Amphibious training received a boost in
up for the first two of four Damen Schelde province during the year, leaving about 400 the biennial Australian-US ‘Talisman Sabre’
SIGMA 9814-class corvettes. Vietnam army personnel in logistics and advisory roles exercise in northern Queensland, while
also announced the purchase of 12 more until the end of 2 014 when the ISAF mission work continued under Plan Beersheba on the
Su-30MK2 aircraft, which will be delivered ends. Forty Australians were killed and 261 reshaping of the army’s regular brigades to
between 2014 and 2015. wounded during the 12-year deployment. generate three ‘alike’ multirole manoeuvre
Indonesia finally received its first consign In May the then government announced it formations. ■
ment of ex-German heavy armour and also
signed up for eight Boeing AH-64E Apaches
from the United States. The first two KAI
T-50 Golden Eagle aircraft - known locally
as the T-50i - arrived at Iswahjudi Airbase
in East Java in September, with 14 more
expected before the end of 2013. However,
concerns in South Korea at the potential
financial risks of the KFX fighter programme
meant its Indonesian counterpart - the IFX -
was left waiting for Seoul to commit ahead of
a June 2014 deadline.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines'
(AFP's) plans for major procurements -
including their own version of the T-50 - are
likely to be undermined by the effects of
Typhoon Haiyan. It is ironic that the typhoon
illustrated the necessity of the AFP moderni - _____________
he situation in the Middle East looked been given credence by the arrival of large This growing domination of the insurgency
has requested Bell 412 search-and-rescue USD2.1 billion in Foreign Military Financing Staff General Martin Dempsey outlined an
aircraft) and has little hope of significantly that Egypt receives every year. Washington unappetising menu of options in a 19 July
speeding the delivery of its F-16 multirole adopted a pragmatic approach, freezing the letter to the US Senate Armed Services Com
strike aircraft. At the same time, many delivery of new F-16s, Apaches, and M1A1 mittee, he warned that tipping the military
observers believe that new weapons will MBT kits pending fresh elections while doing balance in favour of the insurgency could be
make little difference until Maliki abandons nothing to jeopardise Egypt’s counterterror disastrous. “Should the regime’s institutions
the policies that have alienated Iraq’s Sunni ist capabilities. collapse in the absence of a viable opposition,
Arab minority. The situation is far more chaotic in we could inadvertently empower extremists
Sunni jihadist attacks also increased in neighbouring Libya, demonstrating what can or unleash the very chemical weapons we
Lebanon as tensions escalated between happen when an authoritarian state collapses seek to control,” he said.
Hizbullah and the Alawi community on one in the face of a decentralised uprising. More Nevertheless, it looked like the United
side and the predominantly Sunni supporters than two years after the fall of Muammar States would be forced to intervene in the
of the Syrian insurgency on the other. The Ghadaffi, the country is still controlled by a wake of an extensive sarin attack against vari
most notable incident was the 19 November myriad of local militias. Most of these groups ous Damascus suburbs on 21 August.
suicide bombing at the Iranian embassy. The are ostensibly security forces whose salaries In his letter Gen Dempsey had already
bombers were identified as followers of a are paid by the ineffectual central govern stated that a small invasion would be needed
radical preacher, Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir, who ment, but they prioritise their own interests to forcibly dispose of Syria’s chemical weap
went underground in June after the Lebanese or those of associated tribes and frequently ons: a reflection of the failure to develop air-
Armed Forces (LAF) stormed his compound clash with each other. launched munitions capable of safely destroy
in Sidon. The perception that the LAF is a In one of the most extreme examples of ing toxic agents. “At a minimum, this option
neutral force was undermined by the involve self-interest, militias closed the eastern oil would call for a no-fly zone as well as air and
ment of Hizbullah fighters in the operation. terminals that they are supposed to protect missile strikes involving hundreds of aircraft,
Nevertheless, the LAF has so far man in an apparent attempt to negotiate better ships, submarines, and other enablers. Thou
aged to contain the outbreaks of communal compensation. Government officials accused sands of special operations forces and other
violence and its capabilities are being quietly them of being separatists who were attempt ground forces would be needed to assault and
bolstered by UK, French, and US aid. This ing to sell the oil stored at the terminals and secure critical sites,” he wrote.
understated support is exemplified by the US in August tasked the navy with preventing Instead, the US military began drawing up
donation of Cessna 208B Caravan aircraft tankers from docking at the terminals. a plan for limited stand-off strikes that would
that have been fitted with advanced sur
veillance payloads and the ability to launch
Hellfire air-to-surface missiles. Libya demonstrates what can happen
Yemen continues to suffer regular jihadist
violence, despite the military victory against
when an authoritarian state collapses
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) in the face of a decentralised uprising
proto-Islamic state in 2012, while attacks on
security forces in the Sinai Peninsula esca
lated notably in the wake of the 3 July coup in The navy and air force are making progress be so carefully calibrated that they would
Egypt. The severity of the situation was seen in repairing and servicing their old equip punish the 21 August attack and deter Syria
in an army video that showed M60 tanks ment, but there are few signs that an effective from using chemical weapons again, but not
firing into a village as AH-64 Apache attack national army is emerging, despite announce provoke retaliation such as ballistic missile
helicopters flew overhead. ments that Italy, Turkey, the United Kingdom, attacks on Israel or NATO bases.
Elsewhere in Egypt, the coup that ousted and the United States will train its personnel. The US Navy began to build up its presence
the democratically elected Muslim Brother At the same time, the expected major in the region as ships were kept on station
hood government proved popular, even with defence contracts remain on hold pending after their relief had arrived. The political
many members of the pro-democracy move the Libyan defence white paper that is being preparations proved more complicated, how
ment that deposed the autocratic former air drawn up with international assistance. ever. The UK government failed to obtain par
force commander Hosni Mubarak in 2011. liamentary approval for a military operation
The coup highlighted inter-Sunni divisions: Intervention averted against Syria and Obama struggled to secure
Hamas, Turkey, and Qatar objected; while Post-Ghaddafi Libya - as well as the attempts the congressional support he felt he needed.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to stabilise Iraq and Afghanistan - clearly Moscow came to the rescue by brokering
(UAE) began supplying billions of dollars to influenced Washington’s reluctance to a deal that saw Damascus agree to dispose
Egypt’s new government. The situation also intervene in Syria, where ethno-sectarian of its chemical weapons by June 2014 under
put Washington in an awkward position divisions and regional rivalries could result in the supervision of the Organisation for the
as US law says the government must stop a failed state, massive weapon proliferation, Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
providing aid to states in the wake of coups. and a protracted conflict. In a possibly related development, Russian
This would ostensibly mean an end to the When chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of President Vladimir Putin announced that
250
III
1 1 1 50
to build a nuclear weapon - was unimpressed.
“What was achieved last night in Geneva
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will order an attack for as long as Iran remains
committed to the current deal, he could try
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Netanyahu is not the only US ally in the
©2013 IHS: 1463016
region who is deeply uneasy about engaging
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Industry
In 2013 the challenges of budget cuts and the need to restructure to survive were largely met with
stoicism in the Western world, while industry in the East increasingly looked to international expansion
or the US and European defence sector, atmosphere was marked by stoic resignation. the feeling that the worst was known than to
Industrial consolidation
thickened as the new year dawned. Fears over domestic demand will plateau at best and The question of industrial consolidation was
the impact of US sequestration were realised, most likely decline; and exports are not guar an underlying theme on both sides of the
leading to a frenzied atmosphere on Capitol anteed. Therefore, a reduced defence industry Atlantic. Europe’s concern was how far and
Hill, and a sense of confusion about the future is a certainty. how fast industrial consolidation would go.
of the defence industry reigned. In the United States the future looked Over-capacity and duplication of effort - for
In times past, European contractors would more confused, with debate heavily influ example, there are 11 concurrent land systems
have watched with a sense of detachment. enced by the highly charged political environ programmes in Europe and three concurrent
Heaving investment in the US defence ment. For industry leaders it was a question multirole fighter programmes - were cited as
market over the preceding decade, however, of specificity: which programmes would be just causes for consolidation, yet the solution
and reliance on US spending to bolster weak funded and which would not? Without know to the puzzle was no nearer to being found.
domestic demand, served to spread the fear ing the direction of travel, taking business By volume and value, mergers and acquisi
across the Atlantic. decisions became fraught. tion (M&A) activity in the European defence
Sequestration had a direct impact on As Lockheed Martin told IHS Jane’s in May, sector was weak despite some expectations
defence companies on the both sides of the uncertainty created “an overhang on our to the contrary at the outset of the year.
Atlantic, and the uncertainty hampered industry that stifles investment in plants, The flurry of deals expected by financiers
efforts to plan and adjust to new realities. equipment, people, and future research and in the second half of 2013 failed to mate
While in the United States industry did not development essential to the future health of rialise, and the transformational activity
miss an opportunity to defend its interests and our industry”. that many insist is a necessity - such as the
make the case for the sequester to be ended, By the end of 2013 it was possible to failed BAE Systems and EADS merger - was
and for defence to share a lesser burden of US detect faint signs of optimism among leading seldom on the agenda for the year. What
deficit reduction efforts, Europe’s industrial industry players, albeit this was owed more to deal-making did occur followed the same
trajectory as it did in previous years: in-fill
acquisitions to position for best advantage
in the remaining perceived growth domains
(for example: cyber security and unmanned
aerial systems), or speculative investment
by non-strategic players, taking advantage of
subdued asset values and betting on areas of
growth in the coming years.
In the United States budgetary uncertainty
was a key influence in the absence of major
M&A activity, despite a general consensus
that a contraction in the number of defence
companies is both likely and necessary.
There appeared to be little appetite within
the Pentagon for consolidation at the prime
level, while industry had little expectation
that there would be a ‘Last Supper’ of the
kind that saw the last great round of prime
contractor consolidation in the mid- 1990s.
M&A activity in the United States was char
acterised by consolidation among the lower
tiers and the creation of spin-off companies,
following divestment by larger primes. the United States saw regulatory reforms unlikely to be enriched by the ‘liberalised’ EU
Indeed, IHS Jane’s analysts have commented affecting industry. Of particular note in defence procurement environment.
that the conditions that led to the creation the United States was the long-anticipated
of L-3 Communications - a collection of Export Control Reform (ECR). International competition
cast-off Lockheed assets that grew into a After a long period of hiatus and inactiv Companies on both sides of the Atlantic
behemoth - are in play today, positing an ity, a series of measures aimed at stream continued to seek growth opportunities in
interesting view of what may lie ahead. lining the International Transfer of Arms international markets. The cash-rich and
According to IHS Jane’s data (which (ITAR) system was signed into law. The first emerging economies in the Middle East and
includes transactions of commercial round of rule changes (the ECR is being Asia continued to attract activity, the source
aerospace companies with exposure to rolled out in a phased approach into 2014) of some relief for Western firms from the
defence markets), in the first six months of took effect in October. Items such as satel travails of domestic markets.
2013 there were 58 transactions compa lite technologies that were previously listed A number of countries, including Saudi
rable, with previous years (59 transactions on the United States Munitions List (USML) Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar,
in 2012 and 61 transactions in 2011). were removed and placed on the Commer are undergoing systematic modernisation
However the deal values were much lower, cial Control List to allow for easier interna programmes that require new equipment and
totalling only USD3.16 billion, compared tional export. capability, spending vast sums in the process.
with USD4.26 billion in 2012 and USD9.87 The reforms also opened up the global Their own indigenous industries are not
billion in 2011 during the same period. supply chain for component providers to mature enough to meet requirements and
Additionally, almost 80% of the deals were military systems. The new ECR allows US the regional demand for the most sophisti
transacted within borders: a far higher industry to search the world for customers cated equipment available continued to bait
percentage than in the previous four years, hitherto inaccessible because their compo the international feeding frenzy that has
which averaged around 65%. nents were governed by ITAR. developed in recent years.
Indeed, international original equipment However, in contrast to similar investment
Restructuring and regulatory reform manufacturers (OEMs) sometimes try to periods in past decades, these Middle Eastern
The trend of company restructuring and avoid US-origin components so that their customers demonstrated a keen understand
subsequent job reductions across Europe and final product will not be drawn under ITAR ing of their newfound importance. Interna
the United States continued up and down control. The new rules open up many more tional OEMs proactively sought partnership
the supply chain. Job losses ran into tens of opportunities for component manufacturers with local companies hoping to ride the wave
thousands on both sides of the Atlantic. in the United States. of defence self-sufficiency and indigenisation
Almost all major companies announced In Europe the greatest regulatory change policies being pursued by many Gulf countries.
facility closures, portfolio divestments, was the previous year’s implementation of US companies became more active than ever,
and/or major workforce reductions. By way European Union (EU) defence procurement looking to transact deals not just through the
of example: in 2013 alone US company directive 2009/81/EC: the market-changing Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system - long a
announcements regarding job losses totalled measure intended to open the bloc’s defence preferred route to market - but also through
almost 30,000, exceeding 2012 levels by markets to greater cross-border competi direct commercial sales. This was matched by a
roughly one-third. Across Europe the picture tion. Scheduled for transposition in August new spirit of partnering with local companies,
was the same. Almost all major companies 2012, a degree of clarity began to emerge in particularly in the Middle East. The Dubai
announced deep job cuts and site closures, 2013: particularly relating to the practice Airshow in November saw the announcement
and many warned of more to follow. of defence offsets. Offsets - a practice upon of a number of partnerships, including those
Of additional concern was the impact of which European regulators frown - escaped of Boeing and Tawazun, and Abu Dhabi Ship
prolonged stress on defence supply chains. mention in the directive, although the mar building and Spain’s Navantia.
Niche suppliers of technologies relying ket was framed in such a way as to make their
on a few - perhaps even only one - major application extremely difficult. A series of Asia-Pacific region
programme are particularly exposed and defence markets announced updated offsets In Asia, 2013 was marked by China’s growing
vulnerable. With procurement money being procedures in 2013, indicating the practice industrial ambition, evidenced by increasing
concentrated in fewer programmes over is far from dead although application may efforts to penetrate international defence mar
longer acquisition periods, the question of certainly be curtailed. kets through acquisitions and military sales.
the health of the supply chain became even The longer-term impact of directive IHS Jane’s tracked five completed acquisi
more important. In the United Kingdom, the 2009/81 /EC remains to be seen, but its bid tions in 2013 featuring Chinese purchases of
government launched the Defence Growth to increase cross-border competition sparked US- or European-based aerospace firms that
Partnership initiative, an export-led strategy justifiable concern among smaller defence had varying degrees of exposure to defence.
to support the wider industry - particularly manufacturing countries, with some fearing In 2012, by comparison, Chinese companies
small and medium enterprises (SMEs) - to the new EU rules will allow larger European secured two acquisitions, while a bid for
combat the long-term threats faced by the primes to outmuscle indigenous companies. another company, US-based Hawker Beech-
industry by reduced domestic demand. At the same time, these smaller players will craft, proved unsuccessful.
On the political side, both Europe and no longer derive benefit from offsets and are The most notable acquisitions completed in
a.