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Mai Tawfeq For all planners are keep asking about S-Curve
Editor's Note:
The S-curve is a powerful project management control tool. Why it is the shape it is, how
to use it and "Max's Rule of Thumb" for drawing it as a part of the project planning
activity are all described in Chapter 10 of A Management Framework for Project,
Program and Portfolio Integration. You can also find more information on this web
site by entering "S-curve" or "Resource loading" into the site search engine field.
What is an S-curve?
An S-curve is defined as:
"A display of cumulative costs, labor hours or other quantities plotted against time. The
name derives from the S-like shape of the curve, flatter at the beginning and end and
steeper in the middle, which is typical of most projects. The beginning represents a slow,
deliberate but accelerating start, while the end represents a deceleration as the work runs
out."[1]
Types of S-curves
There are a variety of S-curves that are applicable to project management applications,
including:
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Target S-curve
Value and Percentage S-curves
Resource Consumption
Man Hours versus Time S-curve
The Man Hours versus Time S-curve is appropriate for projects that are labor intensive. It
shows cumulative man hours expended over time for the duration of the project. As man-
hours are a product of manpower and working hours, these may be adjusted together or
individually in an attempt to keep the project on schedule. Projects may require additional
man-hours to finish on time due to low productivity, delays and disruptions, rework,
variations, etc.
Introduction
The first time most project managers become aware of the existence of S-curves is when
they are requested by the client or senior management to include one in their next
progress report. The following explains what the mysterious S-curve is, why it is an
important project management tool, and how to generate one.
Editor's Note:
The S-curve is a powerful project management control tool. Why it is the shape it is, how
to use it and "Max's Rule of Thumb" for drawing it as a part of the project planning
activity are all described in Chapter 10 of A Management Framework for Project,
Program and Portfolio Integration. You can also find more information on this web
site by entering "S-curve" or "Resource loading" into the site search engine field.
What is an S-curve?
An S-curve is defined as:
"A display of cumulative costs, labor hours or other quantities plotted against time. The
name derives from the S-like shape of the curve, flatter at the beginning and end and
steeper in the middle, which is typical of most projects. The beginning represents a slow,
deliberate but accelerating start, while the end represents a deceleration as the work runs
out."[1]
Types of S-curves
There are a variety of S-curves that are applicable to project management applications,
including:
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Actual S-curve
Target S-curve
Value and Percentage S-curves
Resource Consumption
Man Hours versus Time S-curve
The Man Hours versus Time S-curve is appropriate for projects that are labor intensive. It
shows cumulative man hours expended over time for the duration of the project. As man-
hours are a product of manpower and working hours, these may be adjusted together or
individually in an attempt to keep the project on schedule. Projects may require additional
man-hours to finish on time due to low productivity, delays and disruptions, rework,
variations, etc.
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the ideal progress of the project if all tasks are completed as currently scheduled. In an
ideal world, the Target S-curve will meet the Baseline S-curve at the end of the project
(On Time, On Budget) or finish below and to the left of the Baseline S-curve (Early, Under
Budget). In reality, it is not uncommon for the Target S-curve to finish above and to the
right of the Baseline S-curve (Late, Over Budget).
Using S-curves
Why Use an S-curve?
S-curves are an important project management tool. They allow the progress of a project
to be tracked visually over time, and form a historical record of what has happened to
date. Analyses of S-curves allow project managers to quickly identify project growth,
slippage, and potential problems that could adversely impact the project if no remedial
action is taken.
Determining Growth
Comparison of the Baseline and Target S-curves quickly reveals if the project has grown
(Target S-curve finishes above Baseline S-curve) or contracted (Target S-curve finishes
below Baseline S-curve) in scope. A change in the project's scopes implies a re-allocation
of resources (increase or decrease), and the very possible requirement to raise contract
variations. If the resources are fixed, then the duration of the project will increase (finish
later) or decrease (finish earlier), possibly leading to the need to submit an extension of
time claim.
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"The amount of time a task has been delayed from its original baseline schedule. The
slippage is the difference between the scheduled start or finish date for a task and the
baseline start or finish date. Slippage can occur when a baseline plan is set and the actual
dates subsequently entered for tasks are later than the baseline dates or the actual
durations are longer than the baseline schedule durations".[2]
Comparison of the Baseline S-curve and Target S-curve quickly reveals any project
slippage (i.e. the Target S-curve finishes to the right of the Baseline S-curve). Additional
resources will need to be allocated or additional hours worked in order to eliminate (or at
least reduce) the slippage. An extension of time claim may need to be submitted if the
slippage cannot be eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level.
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The Baseline Schedules should contain the following information for each task:
Worked Example
To better understand how S-curves are generated, consider a simple project comprising
three tasks.
A Baseline Schedule prepared using MS Project for this project is shown below.
The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Baseline Schedule.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
The S-curve is constructed by assigning the Dates to the X Axis, and the YTD values to
the Y Axis.
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The resulting Baseline Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
To generate a Target Man Hours versus Time S-curve, two sets of calculations are
necessary. The first set of calculations is performed for each task in the Production
Schedule.
The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Production Schedule.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
The resulting Target Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
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The first set of calculations is performed for each task in the Production Schedule.
The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Production Schedule up to
the Cut Off Date.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours to Date per Day for all tasks.
2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours to Date per Day for all tasks.
The resulting Actual Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
The Baseline, Actual, and Target S-curves are usually combined, as shown below.
Analysis
S-curve Analysis
Initial examination of the S-curves generated above reveal the following about the status
of the project.
The project has grown in scope. (The Target S-curve finishes above the Baseline
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S-curve)
The project has slipped. (The Target S-curve finishes to the right of the Baseline
S-curve)
The project is behind schedule. (The Actual S-curve sits below the Target S-curve at the
Cut Off Date)
Project Growth
Analysis of the Baseline and Target S-curve data reveals the project has grown in scope
by 12 man-hours, or 14.29%.
Project Slippage
Analysis of the Baseline and Target S-curve data reveals the project has slipped by 1 day,
or 20.00%.
Project Progress
According to MS Project, based on the Production Schedule the project is 50% complete.
MS Project calculates percentage complete based on durations, and does not take into
account man-hours assigned to each task. Analysis of the Actual and Target S-curve data
reveals the project is 53.13% complete as of the Cut Off Date, while the project should
be 59.38% complete.
i.e. Actual % Complete = (Actual YTD Man Hours @ Cut Off Date / Target Man Hours) x
100% = (51 / 96) x 100% = 53.13%
i.e. Target % Complete = (Target YTD Man Hours @ Cut Off Date / Target Man Hours)
x 100% = (57 / 96) x 100% = 59.38%
Conclusion
Project status
The project will finish late and over budget compared to the Baseline Schedule. Progress
to date (i.e. the Cut Off Date) is behind schedule compared to the Production Schedule.
Detailed analysis of the project is required to determine why the project will be completed
late and over budget. Project growth and/or slippage may be due to a number of factors,
including underestimation of effort in the Baseline Schedule, low productivity, rework,
variations (approved or not), etc.
In this example, variations may need to be raised to account for the extra man hours
expended, and an extension of time claim raised for the later than planned completion.
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The Production Schedule may need review to ensure tasks have been updated accurately
(especially with respect to true percentage complete values), and ongoing and future
tasks may require revising.
Generating S-curves
Some software scheduling packages automatically generate S-curves. On the other hand,
some (including MS Project) do not. In this case, a third party software application is
required to process the Baseline and Production Schedule data to generate the required
S-curves.
Midori Media's myPM SCG S-curve Generator is an MS Windows application that integrates
with MS Excel to generate the various types of S-curves discussed above. MS Project
users will need to export their schedule data to an MS Excel file (easily accomplished
using MS Project's File Save As option). myPM SCG processes the resulting export file,
and creates an MS Excel Output file containing the required S-curves. These may be
copy-pasted to MS Word for inclusion in Project Progress Reports.
A Production Schedule allows Actual and Target S-curves to be generated. These allow
the progress of a project to be monitored, and quickly reveal any divergence from the
Baseline Schedule. S-curves may also be used to determine project growth, slippage, and
progress to date.
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frame and budget. This schedule is referred to as the Baseline Schedule. From this
schedule, a Baseline S-curve is generated. This S-curve reflects the planned progress of
the project. If the project requirements change prior to commencement (e.g. change of
scope, delayed start), the Baseline Schedule may require revision to reflect the changed
requirements.
Using S-curves
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Determining Growth
Comparison of the Baseline and Target S-curves quickly reveals if the project has grown
(Target S-curve finishes above Baseline S-curve) or contracted (Target S-curve finishes
below Baseline S-curve) in scope. A change in the project's scopes implies a re-allocation
of resources (increase or decrease), and the very possible requirement to raise contract
variations. If the resources are fixed, then the duration of the project will increase (finish
later) or decrease (finish earlier), possibly leading to the need to submit an extension of
time claim.
"The amount of time a task has been delayed from its original baseline schedule. The
slippage is the difference between the scheduled start or finish date for a task and the
baseline start or finish date. Slippage can occur when a baseline plan is set and the actual
dates subsequently entered for tasks are later than the baseline dates or the actual
durations are longer than the baseline schedule durations".[2]
Comparison of the Baseline S-curve and Target S-curve quickly reveals any project
slippage (i.e. the Target S-curve finishes to the right of the Baseline S-curve). Additional
resources will need to be allocated or additional hours worked in order to eliminate (or at
least reduce) the slippage. An extension of time claim may need to be submitted if the
slippage cannot be eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level.
12 of 23 9/9/2018, 10:20 AM
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Worked Example
To better understand how S-curves are generated, consider a simple project comprising
three tasks.
A Baseline Schedule prepared using MS Project for this project is shown below.
13 of 23 9/9/2018, 10:20 AM
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The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Baseline Schedule.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
The S-curve is constructed by assigning the Dates to the X Axis, and the YTD values to
the Y Axis.
The resulting Baseline Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
To generate a Target Man Hours versus Time S-curve, two sets of calculations are
necessary. The first set of calculations is performed for each task in the Production
Schedule.
The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Production Schedule.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
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2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours per Day for all tasks.
The resulting Target Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
The first set of calculations is performed for each task in the Production Schedule.
The second set of calculations is performed for each day in the Production Schedule up to
the Cut Off Date.
1. Calculate the total Man Hours to Date per Day for all tasks.
2. Calculate the Year To Date Total for Man Hours to Date per Day for all tasks.
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The resulting Actual Man Hours versus Time S-curve is shown below.
The Baseline, Actual, and Target S-curves are usually combined, as shown below.
Analysis
S-curve Analysis
Initial examination of the S-curves generated above reveal the following about the status
of the project.
The project has grown in scope. (The Target S-curve finishes above the Baseline
S-curve)
The project has slipped. (The Target S-curve finishes to the right of the Baseline
S-curve)
The project is behind schedule. (The Actual S-curve sits below the Target S-curve at the
Cut Off Date)
Project Growth
Analysis of the Baseline and Target S-curve data reveals the project has grown in scope
by 12 man-hours, or 14.29%.
Project Slippage
Analysis of the Baseline and Target S-curve data reveals the project has slipped by 1 day,
or 20.00%.
Project Progress
According to MS Project, based on the Production Schedule the project is 50% complete.
MS Project calculates percentage complete based on durations, and does not take into
account man-hours assigned to each task. Analysis of the Actual and Target S-curve data
reveals the project is 53.13% complete as of the Cut Off Date, while the project should
16 of 23 9/9/2018, 10:20 AM
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be 59.38% complete.
i.e. Actual % Complete = (Actual YTD Man Hours @ Cut Off Date / Target Man Hours) x
100% = (51 / 96) x 100% = 53.13%
i.e. Target % Complete = (Target YTD Man Hours @ Cut Off Date / Target Man Hours)
x 100% = (57 / 96) x 100% = 59.38%
Conclusion
Project status
The project will finish late and over budget compared to the Baseline Schedule. Progress
to date (i.e. the Cut Off Date) is behind schedule compared to the Production Schedule.
Detailed analysis of the project is required to determine why the project will be completed
late and over budget. Project growth and/or slippage may be due to a number of factors,
including underestimation of effort in the Baseline Schedule, low productivity, rework,
variations (approved or not), etc.
In this example, variations may need to be raised to account for the extra man hours
expended, and an extension of time claim raised for the later than planned completion.
The Production Schedule may need review to ensure tasks have been updated accurately
(especially with respect to true percentage complete values), and ongoing and future
tasks may require revising.
Generating S-curves
Some software scheduling packages automatically generate S-curves. On the other hand,
some (including MS Project) do not. In this case, a third party software application is
required to process the Baseline and Production Schedule data to generate the required
S-curves.
Midori Media's myPM SCG S-curve Generator is an MS Windows application that integrates
with MS Excel to generate the various types of S-curves discussed above. MS Project
users will need to export their schedule data to an MS Excel file (easily accomplished
using MS Project's File Save As option). myPM SCG processes the resulting export file,
and creates an MS Excel Output file containing the required S-curves. These may be
copy-pasted to MS Word for inclusion in Project Progress Reports.
A Production Schedule allows Actual and Target S-curves to be generated. These allow
the progress of a project to be monitored, and quickly reveal any divergence from the
Baseline Schedule. S-curves may also be used to determine project growth, slippage, and
progress to date.
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REPLIES
Rafael Davila Morne Beeslaar warning on productivity rates being at best a guess cannot be
overlooked. No way can you overlook the reliability of the source data you uses when
Offline
creating the S-curves.
Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 4508 · You need to track production rates.
Groups: Spider
Project Team · Easier to track if using Unit Costing capable financial/accounting software. The
mere tracking of budgeted amounts is not good enough.
· https://www.foundationsoft.com/unit-cost-production-reporting/
· Easier to model if using scheduling software that correctly model production rates in
easy to understand implementation instead of missing this important value .
· https://www.slideshare.net/davilara11/enhanced-resource-planning
There are a variety of S-curves that are applicable to project management applications,
including: Man Hours versus Time S-curve, Costs versus Time S-curve, Baseline S-curve,
Actual S-curve, Target S-curve, Value and Percentage S-curves.
· http://www.goodplan.ca/2011/02/s-curve-of-success.html
· EVM S-curves.
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· https://josephzaarour.wordpress.com/tag/earned-value/
Also is missing the misconceptions and pitfalls of some S-curves that shall be included in
any reference to S-curves for it to be complete.
Offline
Problem in South Africa is that contractors are notoriously poor at just producing a level 3
Joined: 25 Feb 2016
Posts: 12 schedule never mind getting cost or resource loading done to produce manhour
Groups: None schedules. Productivity rates are at best a guess.
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Mohammad hi
Fahimi
we can not display the pictures
Offline
Mohammad hi
Fahimi
I tried this link: http://www.projectmagazine.com/monitoring-and-controlling/62-
Offline
communication/404-the-mysterious-s-curve
Joined: 9 Jun 2015
Posts: 4 but I get "server not found" error.
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Groups: None
Mohammad Hi, It is a good article but I can not see the pictures,
Fahimi
how can i disply them?
Offline
Offline
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Groups: None
Offline http://www.projectmagazine.com/monitoring-and-controlling/62-communication/404-the-
YOWRAJ Hi,
THAKUR
Offline
where I can get pictures , that would be easier to understand
Joined: 7 Apr 2009
Posts: 8
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Groups: Petro-Chem
/ Oil & Gas
Ganyi WANG It is a good article, but unfortunately, the picture in it can not display normally.
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