Ideas For Profit I NOCIL - Trade War A Growth Opportunity For Rubber Chemical Major Buy PDF

12/20/2018 Ideas for Profit I NOCIL: Trade war a growth opportunity for rubber chemical major; Buy
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Ideas for Pro t I NOCIL: Trade war a growth opportunity

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for rubber chemical major; Buy

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The stock is currently trading at around 9.8x FY21e earnings and 5.4x
EV/EBITDA for FY21e which seems attractive given the growth
outlook
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--------------------------------------------------
Justin Langer loved India's aggression;
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manufacturer of rubber chemicals in India (50 percent market share) benefits

from the secular demand for the chemicals, particularly in the tyre industry AROUND THE WEB
by
(https://mgid.com/a
backed by huge capex commitments in the medium term. Trade disruptions utm_source=widget&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=add&utm_conten
widen growth opportunity in the US market in the near term. Furthermore,

supply side reforms in China, process improvements and higher share of
specialty products too can support margins .
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Ideas for Profit I NOCIL: Trade war a IL&FS to sell stake in education, wealth Par panel w
Source: Moneycontrol Research
Rubber chemicals opportunity size – Tyre industry key driver
As per Rubber Statistical Bulletin’ estimates global rubber consumption is of the

order of 290 lakh tonne with the annual addition of about 7.5 lakh tonne. This
translates to 30,000 tonne of additional requirement for the rubber chemicals
every year as rubber chemicals constitute about 4 percent of the rubber
consumption. Globally, current rubber chemical demand stands at 12 lakh tonne,
while that for Indian market is about 75,000 tonne.

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Tyre industry, the largest consumer of rubber chemicals, is expected to grow at a

CAGR of 12-14 percent for next five years. Both global and domestic tyre industry
have committed expansion plans to the tune of $7.5 billion and Rs 1,650 crore
respectively. NOCIL supplies to major tyre manufacturers and draws 65 percent
of its revenue from the tyre industry. Therefore, it is likely to benefit from the
growing production for tyres in coming years.
Also, demand for high performance tyre, automotive and industrial products and
the need for extended life is likely to increase rubber processing chemical
loadings in the products.
Table: Rubber chemicals
Source: company
Manufacturing capacity and capex plan
The company’s legacy manufacturing capacity of 55,000 tonnes is operating at an

optimum level and hence its multiphase expansion plans (Rs 425 crore) to meet
incremental demand is expected to double capacity. The phase 1 (Rs 170 crore) of
expansion is partly complete and Dahej expansion is expected to start production
in the current quarter (Q3 FY19), while Navi Mumbai expansion was
commissioned in Q1FY19 . In the next phase (Rs 255 crore), company is also
focusing on intermediates used for making rubber chemicals. This phase is
expected to commission by end of H1 FY20. Overall capex announced are
expected to have asset turnover of 2x i.e. a peak sales potential of Rs 900 crore.
Improving export opportunities
NOCIL gets 29 percent of revenue from exports and commands a 5 percent

market share. Its participation in the global market is improving by two ways.
One, NOCIL is already an approved supplier for global tyre manufacturers like
Bridgestone and Michelin which gives it an opportunity to participate in the any
new global capacity envisaged by these players. Secondly, ongoing US-China trade
war also bestows opportunities in the export market. For instance, rubber
chemical imports to the USA from China attracts additional 10 percent import
duty (effective from September 2018). This is further expected to escalate by
another 15 percent if trade talks fails. On account of this various global tyre
manufacturers having US plants have already approached company for sourcing
of rubber chemicals.
Strong financials- Zero Debt Company
NOCIL's strong margin profile over the years has been aided by operating
leverage, cost optimization and higher share of value added portfolio. Further
robust cash flows in last few years helped company payoff entire debt in FY18.
Improving margin profile
Source: Company
Note: Value addition = Revenue (-) cost of raw materials consumed (-) cost of
traded goods (-) change in inventories
Risk: Anti-dumping duty extension and raw material prices
Currently, the company benefits from the anti-dumping duty imposed on rubber
chemicals imported from China and Korea. This is in force till July 2019, after
which its extension would be evaluated. It expects a 4 percent EBIDTA margin
impact in case antidumping duty is revoked.
Another operational risk to monitor is crude oil linked raw material prices
particularly that of benzene which witnessed about 30 percent price increase in
second half of FY18. While company’s margins were maintained during that
period due to product mix, inventory management and product pricing, this is
one aspect to watch out for. Off late, benzene prices have eased which company
has also passed on to end clients.
Outlook
NOCIL is expected to maintain its dominant presence in Indian market on

account of its technological leadership and client relationship. It is noteworthy
that lengthy process for the product approval (~ 2 years) and the indispensable
characteristic imparted by the rubber chemicals ensures a certain level client
stickiness. Further, revenue share contribution from the exports can increase due
to focus on specialty products and ongoing trade disruptions. Given this context
company seems well positioned to meet the increasing demand in near term
through its capex plan which translates to 21 percent sales CAGR (FY18-21e)
Operating margins are expected to moderate if the antidumping duty is not

extended. Taking that into consideration EBITDA margins can contract by 100 bps
in FY20e and can possibly settle at around 25-26 percent in the medium term
(from 29 percent currently).
The stock is currently trading at around 9.8x FY21e earnings and 5.4x EV/EBITDA
for FY21e which seems attractive given the growth outlook.
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First Published on Dec 19, 2018 01:04 pm
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panel-panel-panel-panel-panel-
wants-wants-wants-wants-wants- President's rule in
Jammu and Kashmir
niti- niti- niti- niti- niti- comes into force
today
aayog-aayog-aayog-aayog-aayog- rule-in-jammu-and-
kashmir-comes-into-
to- to- to- to- to- force-today-

3310261.html)
formulate-
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formulate- formulate-(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/
formulate-
policy-policy-policy-policy-policy- into-force-today-3310261.html)
on- on- on- on- on- Mumbai hospital re: Swiggy delivery
executive saves 10 lives
psus- psus- psus- psus- psus- (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/
financial-
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Hamid Ansari returns: Here’s the journey
3313631.html)
3313631.html)
3313631.html)
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of an Indian techie jailed in Pakistan for 6
years
Expressing concern over indian-techie-jailed-in-pakistan-for-6-
years-3306801.html)
losses suffered by PSUs,
a Parliamentary panel Elon Musk unveils underground tunnels,
has recommended the (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world
Niti Aayog to formulate a offers-rides-to-vips-3306991.html)
policy to regulate and Justin Langer loved India's aggression;

monitor the financial
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cricke
health of the country's langer-loved-indias-aggression-calls-
public sector 3306921.html)
undertakings.
The Committee on Public Undertakings in its report on review of loss making

central PSUs tabled in the Lok Sabha observed that while CPSUs in a few sectors
like mining, power, steel and petroleum & natural gas continue to hold a
dominant market position, most of their counterparts in other sectors have been
continuously making losses over the years.
It called for optimum utilisation of their assets to generate better earnings.
The committee observed that Air India functioned under a large debt burden,
which became unmanageable and increased to gigantic proportions year after
year.
RELATED NEWS "With regard to the slow pace of disinvestment of
Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath to

Air India, the Committee have expressed the hope
discuss Ram temple issue with for completion of the disinvestment process early
Hindu religious leaders
and also
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/amit- have desired to know the fate of debts and
shah-yogi-adityanath-to- liabilities on the disinvestment of Air India," it said
discuss-ram-temple-issue-with-
hindu-religious-leaders- in the report.
3313731.html)
The panel also cautioned the government to
TRAI asks access providers to le
tariffs online only from January 1
analyse all the factors before taking any decision on
the merger
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/trai- of two CPSUs, particularly in the context
asks-access-providers-to- le-
tariffs-online-only-from-january-
of merger of BSNL and MTNL, which was under
1-3313681.html) consideration, in the backdrop of the fact that the
Rath Yatra: BJP sets new tentative decision to merge two heavy loss-making PSUs
dates between December 28 and
Indian Airlines and Air India did not work very
31
well.
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/rath-
yatra-bjp-sets-new-tentative-
dates-between-december-28- Highlighting the need for autonomy for efficient
and-31-3313691.html)
functioning of CPSUs, the committee observed that
they will not be able to compete in the market unless they are given the desired
level of independence enjoyed by their counterparts in the private sector.
"It has further been recommended that the CPSUs' Board must be sufficiently
empowered to take all strategic decisions such as formation or dissolution of
partnerships/joint ventures, mergers/acquisitions, appointment of CEO, creation
of below Board-level positions, etc and such a Board should be given a fixed term
to make them more accountable," the panel said in the report.
Moreover, in the event of lapses, the committee said accountability must be fixed
for the Board or concerned ministry or department in their respective areas.
On strategic disinvestment, it recommended that the government should work

out a uniform definition or parameters of "strategic" for their classification.
After examining the performance of 12 loss-making PSUs, the committee

recommended that the performance of the subsidiaries of loss making state-
owned firms should be thoroughly analysed, which would facilitate the
government to take a sound decision on their disinvestment or closure of specific

units.
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Last Updated : Dec 20, 2018 09:55 PM IST | Source: Reuters
German court rules Apple infringed Qualcomm patent

The German case is Qualcomm's third major effort to secure a ban
on Apple's lucrative iPhones over patent infringement allegations
after similar court efforts in the United States and in China.
Reuters
text=German
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iPhone maker Apple
infringed a hardware
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Corp. TRENDING NEWS
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RELATED NEWS The judge ruled that phones that contain a chip comes into force
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Par panel wants Niti Aayog to signals. Mumbai hospital re: Swiggy delivery
formulate policy on PSUs' executive saves 10 lives
nancial health "Competition authorities around the world have (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/
hospital- re-swiggy-delivery-executive-
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/par-
panel-wants-niti-aayog-to-
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lawsuits. These lawsuits have been largely unsuccessful, and at best would ansari-returns-heres-the-journey-of-an-
indian-techie-jailed-in-pakistan-for-6-
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years-3306801.html)
in a statement.
Elon Musk unveils underground tunnels,
Apple and Qorvo were not immediately available for comment. (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world
offers-rides-to-vips-3306991.html)
Qualcomm sued Apple in the regional court in Munich in July last year, seeking
an injunction to halt some iPhone sales in Germany as well as monetary Justin Langer loved India's aggression;
damages. (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cricke
langer-loved-indias-aggression-calls-
The case is part of a broader court conflict between the two, in which Apple has 3306921.html)
alleged that Qualcomm engaged in anticompetitive business practices to protect a

monopoly on so-called modem chips, which help mobile phones connect to
wireless data networks.
The US Federal Trade Commission has also sued Qualcomm over its business
practices in a case set to go to trial in California next month.
Qualcomm has alleged in courts around the world that Apple violated its patents
and has sought bans on iPhone sales in the United States and China.
US regulators found Apple infringed one Qualcomm patent but have so far
recommended against banning some iPhone sales, but a Chinese court issued a
sales ban on some iPhones earlier this month.
Apple said its phones remain on sale and that it believes it has complied with the
Chinese court's order, but it also made changes to its iPhone software in the wake
of the ruling.
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RELATED NEWS "With regard to the slow pace of disinvestment of

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