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Table of Contents
1. About This Paper ............................................................................................................................... 3
2. Background........................................................................................................................................ 3
3. Rates of Return and Market Barriers .................................................................................................. 5
3.1 Rates of Return............................................................................................................................. 5
3.2 Market Barriers ............................................................................................................................. 8
3.2.1 Misplaced Incentives .............................................................................................................10
3.2.2 Financing ..............................................................................................................................10
3.2.3 Market Structure....................................................................................................................11
3.2.4 Gold Plating...........................................................................................................................11
3.2.5 Consumer Heterogeneity.......................................................................................................11
3.2.6 Diffusion Rates......................................................................................................................11
3.2.7 High Discount Rates are a Normal Reflection of Risk............................................................12
3.2.8 Hidden Costs.........................................................................................................................13
3.2.9 Externalities...........................................................................................................................13
3.2.10 Imperfect Competition .........................................................................................................14
3.2.11 Public Goods.......................................................................................................................14
3.2.12 Imperfect Information / Information Costs............................................................................14
3.2.13 Market Barriers Summary....................................................................................................15
4. Illustration of Energy Efficiency Pain Points.......................................................................................15
5. Private Sector Innovation ..................................................................................................................17
6. Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................18
Tables and Charts.................................................................................................................................19
References............................................................................................................................................22
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1. About This Paper
This class paper is prepared for The Economics of Energy and Climate Change at Yale University in
Spring 2009. The paper examines the debate between two scientific communities around the existence
of what came to be known as “the efficiency gap” and about how to address it. The objective of the
paper is to understand the state of the debate and form an opinion whether there are private sector
The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides an introduction to the energy efficiency gap
debate. Section 3 then reviews the energy efficiency gap debate in more detail focusing on the rates of
return and market barriers arguments. Section 4 grounds the discussion by providing an illustrative
example for a hypothetical decision process by a residential customer looking to invest in energy
efficiency. Section 5 provides some high level thoughts on how private sector innovation could help
2. Background
Figure 1 (Enkvist et al, 2007) represents estimates of annual abatement costs in EUR per ton of
avoided emissions of greenhouse gases (the y axis) as well as the abatement potential in giga tons of
greenhouse gases for each of the approaches (the x axis). This cost curve came to be widely known
The puzzling item for the “fresh eye” on this figure is that it suggests that a significant reduction in CO2
emissions can be obtained at a negative cost through energy efficiency / conservation measures. This
assertion runs counter to intuition, and to what many climate change impact assessment models and
studies have suggested: that “Reducing GHGs, particularly if the reductions are to be deep, will
primarily require taking costly steps to reduce CO2 emissions.” (Nordhaus, 2008).
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Figure 2 (Brown et al, 2008) shows a similar estimate, this time of energy savings potential in TWh (the
x axis) from various residential energy efficiency measures plotted against the cost of such measures in
cents per KWh (the y axis). This curve also somewhat counter intuitively suggests that significant (30
percent) energy savings are achievable in the residential sector at an equivalent cost per KWh that is
Similar cost / supply curves have been drawn since the early 1980’s showing the end use energy
efficiency savings potential. They are usually known as “technological costing” or “engineering”
estimates or “bottom-up” models. There have been hundreds of academic papers published on this
subject since the 1980’s “reflecting a perspective developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL),
which has been perhaps the leading research institution in the country in the area of energy efficiency in
What came to be known as the “conservation community” perspective suggests that there are
tremendous and un-tapped opportunities for residential and commercial energy efficiency measures but
there are “market barriers” that prevent them from happening leading to an in-efficient allocation of
economic resources (market failure). The corollary of this view is that, to correct for these market
barriers and promote a diffusion rate for the energy efficiency technologies consistent with economic
efficiency, active state policy measures are required such as building codes, equipment standards, state
/ utility programs, financing programs, government procurement, tax credits, fundamental R&D funding,
This view and the policy corollary have been hotly contested by another group of authors that mainly
identify with the neoclassical economics and finance theory perspective on the issue. The economists
argue that most of the market barriers highlighted by “the engineers” are not market failures but nothing
else than normal and efficient markets functioning under conditions of uncertainty, risk, consumer
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capital allocation choices, transaction and information costs. The economists further argue that the
supply / cost curves and the market barriers highlighted by the engineers are at best mostly irrelevant
for policy design purposes and that some of the policies proposed by the other group, if implemented,
may lead to harmful and in-equitable outcomes (Sutherland, 1991, 1992). The economists however
agree with some of the policies that would correct what they perceive as the “legitimate” market failures
stemming from imperfect competition in the energy markets, environmental externalities, imperfect
Even if the various authors writing on this issue are not necessarily affiliated with the same institutions
and there are subtle differences that also evolved in time, for ease of expression, in the following
paragraphs, I will use “the engineers” or “conservation community” on one hand and “the economists”
on the other hand to identify the two scientific communities and opposing lines of reasoning involved in
the debate about energy efficiency described above. I will also use energy efficiency and energy
conservation interchangeably.
One of the most frequent tools used by the engineers to argue their point is the very high implicit
discount rates or hurdle return rates that seem to be applied to or required from energy efficiency
investments. These high implicit discount rates are just a different expression of the negative costs
mentioned in the example of the McKinsey curve above. High return rates combined with low
penetration rates for the energy efficient technologies are at the core of the argument the engineers
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In this section I briefly examine the return rates and low market share arguments and how the two
The internal rate of return (IRR) for an energy efficiency project is calculated using an estimate of the
initial required investment (technology and installation cost), the useful time of the investment, the
estimated energy savings and energy price over the useful life of the investment.
To illustrate how a typical IRR works in an energy efficiency scenario, Figure 3 provides a “back of the
envelope” calculation example for compact fluorescent light-bulbs (CFL’s) in a residence. I used
estimations from my own house replacing 21, 100 Watts incandescent light bulbs with 23 Watts CFL’s
that run 2.25 hours per day per bulb on average. I assumed a 3 year CFL lifetime, no savings from
longer CFL lifetime, no reduction in light quality, no impact on heating or cooling. CFL’s are a well
known technology with no performance risks. Therefore, I assume the only “transaction costs” are time:
a one hour trip to the supermarket and a one hour installation time without the need of professional
assistance. Without the “transaction costs”, the IRR on this project is 291 percent. To bring the IRR to
12 percent in this case, one would need to value her own time at $267 per hour or an annual gross
salary equivalent of around $900,000. If this case is representative, only a very small fraction of the US
population should have a time opportunity cost so high as to ignore the investment in CFL’s.
Figure 4 shows a summary of several studies showing that the implicit discount rates from energy
efficiency projects (Sanstad et al, 1995) range from 25 percent to 300 percent. Both the engineers and
the economists agree that consumers and companies seem to require return rates upward of 30
percent for their energy investments. They disagree however on the significance of this implicit level for
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For the engineers, the high return rates expected from energy efficiency investments together with a low
market penetration of the energy efficiency technologies (compared to their expectations) are an
expression of economic resource misallocation. This leads to the conclusion that market barriers are
One of the most thorough studies providing an example in support of this view focused on the magnetic
fluorescent ballasts market (Koomey et al, 1995). In this study, the authors argue that despite efficient
magnetic ballasts representing an excellent investment (between 40 and 200 percent IRR) for more
than 99 percent of the commercial building floor stock they were only being adopted in the 1980s at a
rate commensurate with the enactment of appliance efficiency standards in various states. The authors
argue that they accounted for the omitted costs, the aggregation bias and the inherent time lags which
plagued some of the previous engineering estimates. The authors conclude that “In this particular case,
efficiency standards undeniably improved economic welfare and counteracted the effect of market
In contrast, using standard economics and finance theory, the economists argue that “…such discount
rates reflect real costs to consumers in competitive markets. A consumer…is rational in requiring a
much higher discount rate on a risky and illiquid energy-efficiency investment” (Sutherland, 1991).
Hassett and Metcalf reach a similar conclusion using an option pricing model that accounts for the sunk
costs and the multiple uncertainties entailed by energy efficiency investments (Hassett and Metcalf
1993). Hassett and Metcalf find that investors should require rates of return from energy efficiency
investments that are four times larger normal rates of return to account for the illiquidity, risks and
As stated at the beginning of this section, high return rates expected from energy efficiency investments
together with a low market penetration of the energy efficiency technologies are at the core of the
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argument the engineers make for the existence of market barriers. In the CFL example above I showed
an existing efficient technology with a very high rate of return. To complete the example I take a look at
the CFL market share to see how the two sides of the argument may interpret it.
U.S. Department of Energy “CFL Market Profile” report from March 2009 shows that CFL’s shipments
have grown at a compound annual growth rate of 52 percent over the last three years reaching around
20 percent market share of shipments in 2008. The economists would probably argue that this is a
healthy growth rate, and that CFL technology diffusion is happening at the right pace.
However in the same report outlines that, in 2008, in the residential sector, CFL’s still occupy only
around 11 percent of the available estimated sockets that would fit them. Also, over 1.3 billion
incandescent light bulbs were shipped in 2008. The engineers would probably argue that every
incandescent light bulb purchased means forgoing a 200 to 300 percent return on investment and that
In a much summarized way, the engineers make the following argument. The unusual high return rates
combined with low penetration rates for energy efficiency technologies is a sign of inefficient resource
allocation and suggests there are specific market barriers preventing energy efficiency investments. The
government should intervene with policies to correct for these market barriers.
The existence and significance of market barriers is at the heart of this debate. Kulakowski provides
some background for the term market barrier: “… was invented by energy engineers and is used in the
literature in two ways: first as a catch-all phrase to describe anything which appears to impede adoption
of energy efficiency technologies (including market failures), and second as phenomena distinct from
and in addition to market failures that prevent firms from optimizing energy-efficiency investment. Much
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of the controversy over the severity of the efficiency gap seems to have been caused by disagreement
over what constitutes a market failure versus a market barrier.” (Kulakowski, 1999)
A 1996 paper published by William H. Golove and Joseph H. Eto (Golove and Eto, 1996) provides a
good summary of the efficiency gap debate including the arguments and counterarguments around
market barriers. I will extensively use this paper to provide a summary of the views the two opposing
d. gold plating.
2. The explanations provided by the economists for the market barriers as being either over-
estimated or misconstrued:
d. hidden costs.
3. And finally, the market failures the engineers and economists seem to agree upon are:
a. environmental externalities;
b. imperfect competition;
d. imperfect information.
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In the following paragraphs of this section I will review the “market barriers”, outlined above one by one
briefly describing them and discussing the arguments used by the two sides of the debate. I will start by
reviewing the market barriers hypothesis originally developed by the conservation community.
“Misplaced, or split, incentives are transactions or exchanges where the economic benefits of energy
conservation do not accrue to the person who is trying to conserve” (Golove and Eto, 1996). The term is
usually exemplified by landlord – tenant relationships. When the tenant pays the utility bills, the landlord
has little incentive to invest in efficient equipment because the benefits will not accrue to her. In order to
re-arrange the benefits a costly contract re-negotiation would be required so status quo reigns.
The economists have argued that, if the economic savings would really be significant, then such a re-
negotiation would actually occur and that this hypothesis should be developed in terms of transaction
3.2.2 Financing
Lack of access to capital (liquidity constraints, in-ability to borrow) inhibits investments in energy
efficiency by certain classes of consumers, especially low income consumers (Golove and Eto, 1996).
This market barrier is also sometimes referred to as “high first cost” or “high upfront investment”.
The economists have argued that financial markets are highly efficient in allocating capital, that they do
not have a systematic bias against energy efficiency investments and that the consumer debt market
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3.2.3 Market Structure
A complex building supply chain with many actors involved in which some manufacturers have
significant market power has led to difficulties in introducing new energy efficiency technologies. Golove
and Eto contend that this point has not been systematically developed in the efficiency gap literature.
Gold plating means that “energy efficiency is frequently coupled with other costly features and is not
available separately” (Golove and Eto, 1996). An example would be installing more efficient windows in
a residence may have to be combined with structural fixes turning into a major renovation project.
Having reviewed the market barriers hypothesis originally developed by the conservation community I
will now move to the group of concepts used by the economists to critique the market barriers
hypothesis and argue that what is observed in the energy efficiency investments market is normal.
This critique to market barriers suggests that “although a technology may be cost-effective on average
for a class of users in aggregate, the class itself consists of a distribution of consumers” and the
technology may be very cost effective only for a small subclass and not cost effective for the rest. This
has also been referred to as the aggregation bias (Golove and Eto, 1996).
The diffusion rate argument states that many of the efficiency gap arguments assumed that cost and
energy efficient technologies should be adopted instantaneously while technology diffusion is a social
phenomenon that usually follows adoption curves described by a logistic function or “s curve”, with very
slow initial stages followed by a period of fast growth and then market saturation. The economists argue
that it takes time for new technologies to get adopted and low penetration rates are sometimes normal.
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3.2.7 High Discount Rates are a Normal Reflection of Risk
The risk and discount rate critique to market barriers argues that high discount rates for energy
efficiency investments are normal and commensurate with the risk and the specific characteristics of
energy efficiency investments (Sutherland, 1991, 1992, Hassett and Metcalf 1993).
Standard financial practice used in investment valuation is to expect a reward for taking systemic,
market correlated, non diversifiable risk (known as beta), in the form of a high expected return (high
discount rate) and to diversify away idiosyncratic risk (known as alpha). In practice this translates into
basing the discount rate on the beta part of the risk and adjusting the cash flows downwards for the
alpha part of the risk. For example, for a pharmaceutical company researching a new drug, the discount
rate should reflect the beta risk (some adjusted expected level of covariance with the market for the
pharmaceutical sector) while the projected cash flows should be adjusted to reflect the alpha risk (the
In the case of energy efficiency investments, there is no secondary market so diversification is not
possible and there is no estimate for the beta. Engineering models usually do not risk-adjust the cash-
flows so all risks will be implicitly lumped all into the discount rate.
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3.2.8 Hidden Costs
The hidden costs critique to market barriers argues that there are many costs not usually included in the
engineering calculations that may have a significant impact on investment decisions. Such costs may
be reduced performance in other dimensions than energy efficiency, time to acquire the information,
In response, authors on the conservation side of the debate have shown that there are cases of
products equivalent in every way except for the energy efficiency dimension; and that the hidden costs
do not fully explain the difference in consumer preference (Koomey and Sanstad, 1994).
Having reviewed the original market barriers hypothesis developed by the conservation community
(misplaced incentives, financing, market structure, gold plating) and some of the critiques used by the
economists (heterogeneity, diffusion rate, risk and discount rate, hidden costs) I now move to review
some of the areas both engineers and economists seem to agree may be viewed as market failures.
3.2.9 Externalities
The argument here is that by not reflecting the total social cost including environmental degradation
energy prices are lower than they should be leading to inefficiency. “…environmental degradation where
the costs incurred by one economic unit are shifted to others. Environmental externalities are
particularly applicable to energy markets. The generation of electricity from coal produces acid rain,
greenhouse gases and other environmental costs. ... The consequence of these externalities is that
market prices … do not reflect their true social costs. The divergence between a private and social cost
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3.2.10 Imperfect Competition
The argument here is that energy regulation introduces price distortions that prevent energy efficiency
investments from happening. “Inefficient pricing due to regulation has long been recognized to
characterize electricity, but it characterizes gas as well…Artificially low gas prices during the summer
months discourage the commercialization and use of gas cooling technologies.” (Sutherland, 1992).
Both economists and efficiency advocates agree that public good market failures affect the energy
services market (Golove and Eto, 1996). Investment in basic research is believed to be subject to this
shortcoming. Information and value created as a result of basic research may not be captured by the
group who produced the research because it is not easily protected by patent or property rights. This
If one tries to look at a list of potential energy efficiency investments (such as efficient lighting, air
tightness, shell insulation, windows, power management, efficient heating / cooling, efficient appliances,
efficient portfolio (with the highest return for a given risk or the lowest risk for a given return), she would
have to assess 1. initial cost, 2. expected return (energy savings), 3. risks (standard deviation from
expected returns) and 4. covariance among the various investments, all customized to her own specific
situation.
In spite of the many efforts to do this to date, I am not aware of any comprehensive source for such
highly customized information about costs, returns, risks and covariance at a cost that is comparable to
the information costs for similar home or automobile investments. Every potential consumer’s baseline
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will be unique. While some equipment and installation costs and efficiency improvement estimates are
available through the admirable efforts of groups like the End Use Project at Lawrence Berkeley
Laboratory, actual performance data is not widely available for most energy efficiency investments.
Figure 5 shows the illustrative costs of a home energy audit being at least one order of magnitude
higher as a percentage of total investment compared with similar information costs for purchasing a car
or a home. The figures are based on anecdotal research in the North East. The cost of information for a
used car ranges from a $20 Carfax report and a $110 mechanic inspection. The costs for a home
inspection are based on a range of prices found on Connecticut authorized home inspectors websites.
The cost of an energy audit is usually same or higher as an inspection but is applied to a lower base.
To conclude on the imperfect information: reliable and customized information about cost, performance
and risk for energy efficiency investments is either not available or costly.
Energy efficiency investments present a significant opportunity but there are real challenges preventing
them from happening. I will not take a side in the debate whether government policy is the best solution
to address these challenges. In the next section I try to show where private sector innovation may help.
Let’s assume I am a Connecticut resident looking to invest in home insulation and to change my
windows in order to save on energy bills. For simplicity, I will assume that I am looking to invest “out of
the pocket”. I know from a friend that such a job would cost around $8,000. Online research confirms
that this amount is in line with the average loans made by utility efficiency programs (Fuller, 2008).
Further online research uncovers that I can expect around 30 percent efficiency savings from the
investment. I assume energy prices remain the same as today and I also assume that I will save on
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heating oil during the winter months and on electricity during the summer months. My total energy bills
for one year (heating oil and electricity) are $10,700. A quick back of the envelope aggregated savings
calculation for the insulation and windows installation yields $ 2745 per year, or 26 percent of my total
energy bills. Assuming a useful life of 10 years, the IRR on this investment is 32 percent. This looks to
be in line with what I should expect from the literature on energy efficiency. Not bad, especially during a
However, after I do a little bit of thinking I decide to adjust the figures. I find out that an energy audit for
the house would really be helpful and that it will cost $600. Then I realize that I already spent quite a bit
of time on this project and I am likely to continue to spend some more if I go ahead with it. I decide to
include the time spent in the projects costs at 36 hours in total at the per hour equivalent of an annual
gross salary of $ 60,000. Next I ask myself, what if the contractor does a poor job? I don’t know
anything about this and I would not even be able to tell. I decide to include in the model a probability of
20 percent that the contractor will do a poor job and there will not be any savings. Finally I also question
whether the 30 percent savings figure is really accurate. After all I got that from the internet and no one
guarantees it. I decide to include in the model another 20 percent probability that the performance
improvement will be insignificant. The return is now more than half the previous version at 14 percent.
Figure 7 shows a summary of my calculations. If I change the two probabilities to 50 percent my return
Doing some more thinking I realize that leaving the energy prices unchanged in my back of the
envelope calculation was probably not the best idea, but I don’t know how to integrate energy price
volatility into my calculation. I hear energy is a global commodity and that prices go up and down as
they have done several times in the past. I realize that, by doing this energy efficiency investment, I am
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I decide to wait on my energy efficiency project until I get a better picture of the prices, or of the savings.
I also decide to change the thermostat settings, ask my family to be more conscious about saving
energy, and install CFL’s wherever I still have incandescent light bulbs.
This of course was a highly un-scientific but somewhat realistic exercise intended to illustrate how
uncertainties and transaction costs can compound very fast to the point where they can be discouraging
Private sector technological and business model innovation can, and probably will, play a big role in
making energy efficiency investments a significant reality through reducing transaction costs and
uncertainties. Below are a few examples of potential capabilities a successful energy efficiency
• Cheap and accurate virtual energy audit and prioritization of energy efficiency measures delivered
using assessment tools that combine utility bill history with home physics modeling and appliance
• Capability to identify the consumers with the most significant savings potential.
• Capability to monitor savings and share them with consumers using a progressive split schedule.
• Ability to aggregate the savings to participate in the spot and forward electricity market.
• Ability to understand cost, returns, risk and correlations of different efficiency measures across
many projects in a climactic region. Treating energy efficiency projects as a pool of investments
would help manage risks (equipment performance, contractor performance etc.), design business
models that take the risk away from the consumer and price right.
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A significant issue that may need to be dealt with by policy is the role utilities will have to play in energy
efficiency investments. Utilities hold the key to the consumer. Unfortunately any reduction in energy
sales is equivalent with a reduction in revenues and therefore against their interest. Policies that
decouple electricity sales from utility profits and offer utilities profit incentives for efficiency investments
have been tried successfully in California and should be extended nationwide (Koomey, 2008).
6. Conclusions
The intense debate around the existence of an energy efficiency gap caused by market barriers that
have similar effects to market failures has been going for almost 30 years. The debate is far from
reaching a final verdict and the two sides have enriched and deepened the argument in the process.
There are many areas of further potential research. One very helpful direction would be developing a
deep understanding of the performance, cost, risks and covariance associated with the various types of
The Obama administration seems to believe in the energy efficiency argument as a significant portion of
the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009 money is slated against objectives associated
with energy efficiency ($6.3 billion for Energy Efficiency and Conservation Grants for states, $5 billion
for the Weatherization Assistance Program, $4.5 billion to make Federal Buildings more energy
efficient, $4.5 billion for R&D for the Smart Grid Investment Program).
If energy efficiency is to have a material future in residences and small businesses across the nation,
the private sector needs to step up to this opportunity and develop the innovative technologies and
business models that will address the very real transaction costs and uncertainty challenges.
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Tables and Charts
Figure 1 The McKinsey Abatement Curve
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Figure 3 The CFL Investment Case
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Figure 7 Home Insulation Project Return - Adjusted
Adjustments
Energy Audit Costs 600
Other Costs 654
Bad Contractor Probability 20%
Bad Performance Probability 20%
Total Risk 36%
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References
Brown, Rich, Sam Borgeson, Jonathan Koomey, and Peter Biermayer. 2008. U.S. Building-Sector
Energy Efficiency Potential. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. REVIEW DRAFT.
June.
Enkvist, Per-Anders, Thomas Naucler, Jerker Rosander. 2007. A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas
Reduction, The McKinsey Quarterly Issue No1
Golove, William H. and Eto, Joseph H. 1996. Market Barriers to Energy Efficiency: A Critical
Reappraisal of the Rationale for Public Policies to Promote Energy Efficiency. Energy and Environment
Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Hassett, K A and Metcalf, G E. 1993. Energy conservation investment: do consumers discount the
future correctly? Energy Policy
Koomey, Jonathan, and A. Sanstad. 1994. Technical Evidence for Assessing the Performance of
Markets Affecting Energy Efficiency.” Energy Policy
Koomey, Jonathan, Alan H. Sanstad, and Leslie Shown. 1995. Magnetic Fluorescent Ballasts: Market
Data, Market Imperfections, and Policy Success. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Koomey, Jonathan. 2008. Testimony Before the Joint Economic Committee of the United States
Congress
Nordhaus, William. 2008. A Question of Balance - Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies.
Yale University Press
Sanstad, Alan H., Carl Blumstein, and Steven Stoft. 1995. How High are Option Values in Energy-
Efficiency Investments?. Energy Policy
Sutherland, Ronald J. 1992. The Analytical Foundations of Conservation Policy. Argonne National
Laboratory
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