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Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Fuzzy Logic System and Its

Influences on Mainlines in Lashgarak Region, Tehran, Iran

Article  in  Geotechnical and Geological Engineering · October 2017

DOI: 10.1007/s10706-017-0365-y

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Geotech Geol Eng
DOI 10.1007/s10706-017-0365-y
ORIGINAL PAPER
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Fuzzy Logic System
and Its Influences on Mainlines in Lashgarak Region,
Tehran, Iran
S. M. Fatemi Aghda . V. Bagheri . M. Razifard
Received: 14 June 2016 / Accepted: 11 September 2017
Ó Springer International Publishing AG 2017
Abstract Landslide susceptibility mapping is
among the useful tools applied in disaster management
and planning development activities in mountainous
areas. The susceptibility maps prepared in this
research provide valuable information for landslide
hazard management in Lashgarak region of Tehran.
This study was conducted to, first, prepare landslide
susceptibility maps for Lashgarak region and evaluate
landslide effect on mainlines and, second, to analyze
the main factors affecting landslide hazard increase in
the study area in order to propose efficient strategies
for landslide hazard mitigation. A GIS-based multi-
criteria decision analysis model (fuzzy logic) is used in
the present work for scientific evaluation of landslide
susceptible areas in Lashgarak region. To this end,
ArcGIS, PCIGeomatica, and IDIRISI software pack-
ages were used. Eight information layers were selected
for information analysis: ground strength class, slope
angle, terrain roughness, normalized difference mois-
ture index, normalized difference vegetation index,
distance from fault, distance from the river, and
distance from the road. Next, eight different scenarios
were created to determine landslide susceptibility of
S. M. Fatemi Aghda (&)
Department of Applied Geology, Faculty of Geological
Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran 15815-3587, Iran
e-mail: fatemi@khu.ac.ir
V. Bagheri  M. Razifard
Department of Geology, Faculty of Basic Sciences,
Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
the study area using different operators (intersection
(AND), union (OR), algebraic sum (SUM), multipli-
cation (PRODUCT), and different fuzzy gamma
values) of fuzzy overlay approach. After that, the
performance of various fuzzy operators in landslide
susceptibility mapping was empirically compared.
The results revealed the excellent consistency of
landslide susceptibility map prepared using the fuzzy
union (OR) operator with landslide distribution map in
the study area. Eventually, the accuracy of landslide
susceptibility map prepared using the fuzzy union
(OR) operator was evaluated using the frequency ratio
diagram. The results showed that frequency values of
the landslides gradually increase from ‘‘low suscep-
tibility’’ to high ‘‘susceptibility’’ as 88.34% of the
landslides are categorized into two ‘‘high’’ and ‘‘very
high’’ susceptibility classes, implying the satisfactory
consistency between the landslide susceptibility map
prepared using fuzzy union (OR) operator and land-
slide distribution map.
Keywords Landslide susceptibility  Zonation 
Fuzzy logic  Lashgarak, Tehran  Geographical
information system
1 Introduction
Landslides are among the natural phenomena mainly
occurring in the mountainous areas that suddenly
123

interrupt the morphology of the involved area and
bring considerable damages to residential areas, roads,
agriculture lands, etc. (Fatemi Aghda and Bagheri
2014). Therefore, landslides constantly receive the
attention of governments and scientific research
centers and, so that, different methods have been
proposed for their investigation, prediction, and
management.
In 1990s, landslides account for 9% of the total
natural disasters. This number is estimated as 18%
(twice the average global value) for Turkey (Rajabi
2010). Landslides are also considered among the
natural disasters with the highest causality in South-
east Asian countries. Due to the geological potentials,
morphological features, and lack of a comprehensive
environmental management, Iran (in terms of earth-
quake occurrence and its casualties) is considered
among the high-risk areas of the world (Mahdavifar
2006). In the view of number, diversity, frequency,
and intensity of natural risks, Iran is among the 10
most risky areas of the world. Landslide prediction in a
slope for its stabilization and slide control and damage
mitigation requires a proper understanding of the
involved factors and their mechanism.
Due to the damages induced by landslides, control
and amendment of these phenomena are of the highest
concern. In this regard, preparation of susceptibility
zonation and detection of mass movements are of great
significance. Landslide susceptibility zonation is a
general concept applied for ground strength classifi-
cation of some homogenous sections and their cate-
gorization on the basis of real potential susceptibility
to landslides.
Landslide susceptibility mapping facilitates detec-
tion of susceptible areas and considers them in
environmental plans. Besides, landslide susceptibility
zonation is an efficient tool for many engineering
projects, where a simple low-cost approach is needed
for early estimation of slope stability in project sites
(Hafezi Moghadas and Ghafouri 2009).
Detection and classification of landslide susceptible
areas and their susceptibility zonation are important
steps toward evaluation of environmental hazards and
plays a key role in watershed management (Sakar et al.
1995). Moreover, the rapid growth in population and
urban development highlights the necessity of land-
slide susceptibility zonation (Salimi 2014).
Regarding the damages induced by the landslides
such as destruction of buildings and the failure of main
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Geotech Geol Eng
lifelines, there is a high concern for dealing with this
phenomenon. For this goal, it is necessary to conduct a
susceptibility zonation and a thorough understanding
of mass movements, so that to apply managerial tasks
and mitigate their hazards (Kouraki Nezhad et al.
2002; Salimi 2014).
Slope instability analysis, similar to the other
environmental geology problems, is of highest com-
plexity due to the diversity of the factors involved in
its occurrence. Due to the uncertainty induced by the
ambiguity, incompleteness, and unclear nature of the
conditions and concepts related to parameters such as
geology, hydrology, tectonics, vegetation, rainfall,
erosion, temperature variations, effect of freezing in
slope instability, it is necessary to implement
approaches accurate and precise for analysis of the
slopes, considering the colloquial and inaccurate
nature of most of this information. Such limitations
inspired the application of fuzzy theory in such
problems (Fatemi Aghda et al. 2006).
Many case studies have been conducted on land-
slides prediction and zonation (Pachauri and Pant
1992; Nagarajan et al. 2000; Lee and Min 2002; Qin
et al. 2002; Zhou et al. 2002; Ayalew and Yamagishi
2005; Pradhan and Lee 2010b; Banshtu and Prakash
2014; He et al. 2014).
In the present research, we investigated suscepti-
bility of landslide zonation maps in Lashgarak area
(Tehran, Iran) using various fuzzy logic operators and
the effect of the prepared susceptibility maps on main
lifelines using parameters such as ground strength
class, slope angle, terrain roughness, normalized
difference moisture index (NDMI), normalized dif-
ference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from fault,
distance from the river, and distance from the road.
Next, the performance of various fuzzy logic operators
in the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps was
empirically compared. Eventually, the accuracy of the
prepared optimum map was evaluated using the
frequency ratio chart.
Fuzzy logic is among the accurate multi-criteria
decision analysis models widely applied in zonation
and siting problems (Ebrahimi Gh 2015). GIS-based
multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) pro-
vides powerful techniques for the analysis and
prediction of landslide hazards (Ahmed 2014). There
are a large number of membership functions used in
fuzzy logic such as user-defined, linear, J-shaped, and
sigmoidal. These functions are supported by
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monotonically increasing, monotonically decreasing,
and symmetric variables (Eastman 1997). Based on
the nature of the present research, sigmoidal and linear
functions were used.
2 General Characteristics of the Study Area
The study area is located on the southern slopes of
Alborz Mountain belt within the 35°450 –36°000 lati-
tudes and 51°300 –51°450 longitudes (Fig. 1). The
study area involves important villages such as Lash-
garak, Fasham (center of Roudbar Gasran District),
Oushan, Afjeh, Kalanduk, Zayegan, and Laloun. The
Fig. 1 Geographical location of the study area
southwest part of this area is Latiyan Lake that is one
of three dams supplying the drinking water of Tehran.
As shown in Fig. 2, wide civil engineering activities
such as road construction, road widening, and building
construction on the slopes disregarding the engineer-
ing geological studies have enhanced landslide hazard
in this region (Nourifard 2009).
2.1 Tectonics and Geological Conditions
of the Study Area
Alborz Mountain belt on the southern slopes has steep
thrusts toward the south that are generally overlain by
the alluvial sediments. The south part of Central
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Fig. 2 Wide construction activities on slopes
Alborz extends from Semnan to Ghazvin, while the
north boundary of this zone up to Gorgan-Rasht zone
is Alborz Fault (Darvish Zadeh 1991). Although the
south boundary of central Alborz is covered with
Central Iran zone, the remnant of Semnan Fault can be
considered the separation boundary of these two
zones. Paleozoic and Mesozoic sediments are fre-
quently observed from north to south. These sediments
comprise upper and middle cretaceous deposits, upper
Jurassic limestone, coal-bearing Lias layers, tertiary
limestone, limestone–sandstones deposits of Permo-
Carboniferous, and detrital and dolomite series of
Cambrian that is superimposed on tertiary deposits
(Mosha-Fasham thrust). These deposits and the men-
tioned thrust are clearly seen in the north of Tehran
and in Meygun area (Darvish Zadeh 1991). The
geology map of the study area is shown in Fig. 3.
Moreover, the lithological description of the geolog-
ical terms for Fig. 3 is presented in Table 1.
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2.2 Landslides Occurred in the Study Area
Considering the main objective of this research, using
the available maps, satellite images, aerial pho-
tographs, occurred landslide reports, 1:25,000 maps
of National Cartographic Center, and 1:50,000 maps
of Geological Survey of Iran, the major occurred
landslides in the study area were detected. Distribution
map of these 173 landslides is shown in Fig. 4. Some
examples of these landslides are shown in Fig. 5a–d.
The dominant displacement aspects of the landslides
were determined in eight directions using the men-
tioned information sources and field investigations.
The variety of the dominant aspects in this area in
terms of Azimuth values is presented in Table 2.
As shown in Table 2, the dominant displacement
aspects of the landslides are NW and N with 51 and 29
landslides, respectively. Distribution of materials
involved in this area is presented in Table 3. As
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Fig. 3 Geology map of Lashgarak region, Tehran, Iran
shown in this table, the majority of involved materials
in the study area is soil type.
Landslides occurred in Lashgarak region pose high
hazard to mainlines and agricultural lands. The
elements threatened by landslide hazard in this area
are shown in Table 4.
Finally, factors effective in landslides development
in the study area, on the basis of field investigations
and aerial photographs, are presented in Table 5.
As shown in Table 5, erosion and scouring are the
most important factors in mass movements of the area,
with tectonic factors in the second place.
3 Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Method
In this research, first of all, effective parameters in
landslide susceptibility increase were investigated. In
this regard, eight criteria including (1) ground strength
class (rating of the geological formation on basis of
occurred landslide concentration in each formation),
(2) slope angle, (3) terrain roughness, (4) normalized
difference vegetation index (NDVI), (5) normalized
difference moisture index (NDMI), (6) distance from
fault, (7) distance from road, and (8) distance from
rivers, were evaluated and analyzed. Then, landslide
distribution map was used to rate geological forma-
tions and also validate the landslide susceptibility
maps.
Also, as the first step, the conditions of the study
area were investigated in relation to each parameter.
For this aim, lithological condition and the number of
landslides in each formation in the study area, slope
angle, the topography of the studied slopes, vegetation
cover, moisture, faults, main roads, rivers and lake
(Latiyan Dam Lake) in the study area were investi-
gated. Next, the membership function of each criterion
was determined, and then, the information layers were
overlaid using the intersection (AND), union (OR),
algebraic sum (SUM), multiplication (PRODUCT),
and different fuzzy gamma operators in order to detect
zones susceptible to a landslide in the study area.
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Table 1 Lithological description of the geological terms used in Fig. 3

Geo unit Geology description Ground strength
class

PEz Alveolina–Nummulitic limestone, conglomerate, gypsum 0.5

Cjb Black limestone, clayey marl intercalations 0.5
Eka Agglomerate, andesitic/basaltic rocks, tuffs, pyroclastics, tuffite 0.5
Q Conglomerate terraces and fans 0.5
Td, a Diorite, andesite 0.5
PsE-E Thick-bedded to massive light-colored dolomite, locally with chert bands 0.5
Qf Young and old alluvial, fanglomerate 0.5
Eq White quartzite, quartzitic sandstone (formerly top quartzite) 0.5
Pr Moderate-bedded limestone 0.5
Djv Basaltic–andesitic lava flows 0.5
Kt Orbitolina limestone (Aptian–Albian) 0.5
K2b Conglomerate, red sandstone 0.5
PlQc, s Conglomerate, sandstone, mudstone, intercalations 1
PEfc Thick-bedded to massive polygenetic conglomerate, sandstone, locally limestone beds 1
Kub Thick-bedded limestone (Turonian, Early Senonian) 1
Q1 Old alluvial fans and terraces 1
Qal Loose alluvium (including recent alluvium—unit D) 1.5
Ekm Light green–gray laminated calcareous mudstone, shale, tuffite 1.5
Ebtd Black massive dolomite, green–black shale intercalations 1.5
Eksh Calcareous and siliceous dark-colored shale, tuffite, pyroclastics 2
Ekt Green thick-bedded tuff, tuffaceous shale, minor lava, pyroclastics, tuff-breccia 2
El Red arkosic sandstone 2
TR3Js Shale, sandstone, siltstone, claystone, locally limestone intercalations, coal-bearing 2
PEfm, s, c Marl, sandstone, conglomerate, gypsum 2.5
TRel Thick-bedded to massive limestone 2.5
Q2 Young alluvial fans and terraces (including subsequent Tehran alluvium—unit c) 3
TRem.l Platy marly limestone, oolitic limestone 3
Em Trilobite-bearing limestone, marl, dolomite and shale 3.5
Tb Basic and intermediate sills 3.5
Ez Micaceous red siltstone, dark red calcareous shale, red sandstone 3.5
Dja Sandstone, shale, limestone, marl, phosphatic layers 3.5
Jd Thin-bedded to massive marly limestone; in some places may include undivided Dalichai 4
Formation
Qu Indifference young and old alluvial fans and terraces, colluvium, residual soils 4
Cjd Black oolitic and intraclastic limestone 4.5
M Undivided Miocene deposits including sandy marl, siltstone, conglomerate, gypsum, miliolids 4.5
limestone
Jl Thin-bedded to massive marly limestone; in some places may include undivided Dalichai 4.5
Formation
Cjc Light gray massive dolomitic limestone 4.5
Ebt Micaceous variegated siltstone and shale, cherty dolomite intercalations 4.5
TRed Massive dolomite 4.5
Qs Young and old scree slopes, talus deposits 4.5
Pd Sandstone, shale, limestone intercalations 5

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Table 1 continued
Geo unit Geology description
gy Gypsum
Ql Landslide, rock fall, rock stream
Ekn Sandstone, conglomerate, gypsum, Nummulitic marly limestone
Fig. 4 Occurred landslide
distribution map in
Lashgarak region
4 Required Geologic Layers for Fuzzy Logic
Method
Factors effective in landslide occurrence are divided
into two groups: distance and zonal parameters. To
work on the information layer, for layers with distance
limitations, it is required to convert them to ‘‘distance
from the given feature’’ layers (e.g., major and minor
roads, runoff sources). Toward this aim, ‘‘Euclidian
distance’’ operator existing in ArcGIS environment
was used in order to divide areas around each distance
feature to certain distances. Considering the wide-
spread use of sigmoidal membership function (Miles
and Keefer 2007) compared to other functions in fuzzy
theory sets, fuzzification of factors with distance
limitation was carried out using this function in
IDRISI software information. Among the eight factors
effective in landslide occurrence in the study area,
three factors were selected on the basis of their
distance from given linear feature, i.e., distance from
Ground strength
class
5
5
5
the river, distance from the road, and distance from
fault. The threshold limits defined for each of these
parameters are presented in Table 6. As shown in this
table, the membership function shape for each of the
mentioned three distance information layer is mono-
tonically decreasing. Thus, as distance increases from
the given linear feature in the information layers,
landslide occurrence susceptibility reduces. In these
distance information layers, for linear distances
smaller than control point C and greater than control
point D values of 1 and 0 are assigned, respectively. In
addition, for linear distances between control point C
and control point D a value ranging from 1 to 0 is
assigned.
For information layers studied in zonal form, first,
the required information layers are prepared on the
initial maps using related operators in ArcGIS and
PCIGeomatica software packages. Next, linear mem-
bership function in IDRISI software environment is
used for fuzzification of the previously mentioned five
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Fig. 5 Some landslide cases occurred in Lashgarak region

Table 2 Dominant displacement aspect of the landslide occurred in Lashgarak region

Dominant displacement aspect of the landslides N NE E SE S SW W NW

Number of occurred landslides 29 28 8 14 4 26 13 51

Table 3 The material types involved in landslides occurred in roughness, slope angle, ground strength class, mois-
Lashgarak, Tehran ture, and vegetation cover) were subject to zonal
Involved materials Rock Soil Mixed (Rock and Soil) investigation. The defined threshold limits of each of
these parameters are shown in Table 7. As shown in
Number of landslides 36 133 4 this table, membership function shape is monotoni-
cally increasing for all information layers, except
NDVI layer; which can be explained by the fact that an
increase in the values of these parameters results in the
factors, except terrain roughness layer that is fuzzified
enhanced landslide occurrence susceptibility in these
using sigmoidal membership function (Miles and
zonal information layers. In these information layers,
Keefer 2007). Among the eight mentioned factors
for numbers smaller than control point A and greater
effective in landslide occurrence, five factors (terrain

Table 4 Elements threatened and the number of causative landslides in the study area
The threatened elements Telephone lines Power lines Residential areas Road Irrigation channels Agricultural lands

20 8 30 72 1 2

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Table 5 Factors effective in landslide occurrence in Lashgarak region, Tehran

Effective factors Tectonic Fault Layering Runoff Spring Erosion and Agriculture Abutment
fractures flows scouring deterioration

Number of 40 160 40 31 15 162 2 2

landslides

Table 6 Threshold limits of the distance parameters

Parameters Threshold Membership function type Membership function shape
Control point C (m) Control point D (m)

Distance from rivers 200 500 Sigmoidal Monotonically decreasing

Distance from roads 50 150 Sigmoidal Monotonically decreasing
Distance from faults 500 1500 Sigmoidal Monotonically decreasing

than control point B the corresponding values of 0 and
1 are assigned. Moreover, for numbers varying
between control point A and control point B the
values ranging from 0 to 1 are assigned, respectively.
For NDVI information layer, considering the dual
positive and negative role of vegetation in landslide
occurrence, only the positive aspect of this parameter
is considered. Thus, it is assumed that the increase in
NDVI in the study area results in enhanced stability of
the slopes and, consequently, reduced landslide sus-
ceptibility (Miles and Keefer 2007); hence, member-
ship function shape is monotonically decreasing for
this information layer. For these information layers,
for numbers smaller than control point A and greater
than control point B values of 1 and 0 are, respectively,
assigned, whereas for numbers varying between
control point A and control point B, a value ranging
from 0 to 1 is assigned. Finally, considering the scale
of the study area in the research (1:50,000), all
information layers were prepared using the
25 m 9 25 m cell size in order to enhance the
accuracy of the results.
4.1 Distance Parameters
Conceptually, disturbance distance (distance parame-
ters) facilitates representation of morphological fac-
tors contributing to slope failures, such as toe erosion
by an undercutting stream or an over-steepened road
cut (Cruden and Varnes 1996). Specifically, it is the
distance in meters between the slope (however
defined) and the identified linear disturbance feature.
In the following, these parameters are defined:
4.1.1 Distance from Rivers
The runoffs are considered among the factors increas-
ing instability hazard of slopes. Due to the runoff
flows, erosion and undercutting occur in valleys that
consequently result in scouring in slope toe in both

Table 7 Threshold levels of the zonal parameters

Parameters Threshold Membership function type Membership function shape
Control point A Control point B

Terrain roughness 6 26 Sigmoidal Monotonically increasing

Slope angle 5° 45° Linear Monotonically increasing
Ground strength class 1 3.5 Linear Monotonically increasing
Moisture content (NDMI) 15% 75% Linear Monotonically increasing
Vegetation cover (NDVI) 20% 80% Linear Monotonically decreasing

123

sides of the rivers, on one hand, and increased slope
angle and removal of slope supports, on the other.
Furthermore, due to the different hydraulic pres-
sures on both sides of rivers, meander features are
developed. Such difference in pressure leads to
erosion and undercutting on the concave side of the
meander, leading to increased instability of the slope.
Main rivers with permanent flow have higher power
for slope destruction and landslide triggering. Thus,
the majority of landslides occur in the vicinity of
rivers. The corresponding data of this parameter were
extracted from 1:25,000 topography map of National
Cartographic Center. Figure 6 illustrates the effect of
distance from river and streams on landslide occur-
rence using the fuzzy logic.
4.1.2 Distance from Roads
Linear features such as roads and rivers generally
reduce the resisting forces of the slopes and lead to
their reduced factor of safety, which causes their
increased instability susceptibility. Road construction
in hilly areas typically follows morphology and
topography of the area. The most suitable routes
predicted for road construction is located at a lowest
part of the area along the river route. Indeed, these
Fig. 6 Distance from rivers fuzzy map for considering landslide occurrence in Lashgarak region
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Geotech Geol Eng
roads are constructed a few meters above the river
level. However, for some sections along the route
assigned for road construction, hill-cutting, trenching,
tunneling, and bridge construction are inevitable. In
such areas, the supporting elements are removed from
the slope toe, leading to an unbalanced state between
the resisting and driving forces in slopes overlooking
the road and enhancing landslide occurrence suscep-
tibility. Railroad construction is another factor that
increases landslide susceptibility. The data related to
these parameters were extracted from 1:25,000 topog-
raphy map of National Cartographic Center. Figure 7
demonstrates the effect of distance from roads in
landslide occurrence using the fuzzy logic.
4.1.3 Distance from Faults
The geological structures are among the internal
effective factors in landslide occurrence. Discontinu-
ities such as beddings, schistosity, fold axis, joints and
fractures, faults, and fractured zones play a key role in
landslide occurrence. Faults can be important in
landslide occurrence in two aspects. Firstly, they can
be a source of an earthquake; in the case of earthquake
occurrence, slopes closer to the faults would receive
higher earthquake energy and would be more probable
Geotech Geol Eng
Fig. 7 Distance from roads
fuzzy map for considering
landslide occurrence in
Lashgarak region
to disrupt compared to those in greater distance from
the faults. Secondly, faults are among the factors
leading to rock fracturing; the path a fault passes
through has weaker rocks compared to other zones. As
a result, the presence of these discontinuity planes
reduces shear strength of the slope materials and leads
to higher landslide susceptibility. In this research, fault
effects are investigated in rock fracturing. Faults can
be effective in landslide occurrence in other terms,
e.g., further water flow to the fractured zones, setting
aside the geological units with different strength
together and providing weaker slide surfaces (in the
case of proper orientation).
The information related to faults existing in Lash-
garak region was extracted from 1:50,000 map of
Geological Survey of Iran. Considering two main
faults existing in the study area, North Tehran Fault
and Mosha-Fasham Fault, Fig. 8 depicts the condition
of the study area with respect to distance from the
mentioned faults using the fuzzy logic.
4.2 Zonal Parameters
4.2.1 Terrain Roughness
There is relatively sparse quantitative knowledge
about slope curvature. The terrain roughness
parameter is mostly affected by rock fall occurrence.
Terrain roughness is simply the unsigned slope
curvature in a profile. In other words, it is the second
derivative of elevation in the downslope direction,
with all calculation done in degrees. This layer is
prepared using the ‘‘curvature’’ operator from the
digital elevation model (DEM) in ArcGIS environ-
ment (Fig. 9). In particular, the layer, profile curva-
ture, represents terrain roughness. Profile curvature
indicates changes in slope angle or counter curves
slope through a flow path (valley). In the profile
curvature, negative values represent convex areas and
the rise of slope angle, while the positive values show
concave areas and decrease in slope angle. When there
is a flat area with a constant slope, the values limit to
zero.
According to Miles and Keefer (2007, 2009), in this
study, the terrain roughness information layer was
normalized in a range of 0–40. In other words, the
convex and concave areas were mixed together; thus,
an increase in terrain roughness leads to enhanced
landslide occurrence susceptibility. Fuzzy map of
terrain roughness in the study area is shown in Fig. 9.
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Fig. 8 Distance from faults fuzzy map for considering landslide occurrence in Lashgarak region

Fig. 9 Terrain roughness

fuzzy map for considering
landslide occurrence in
Lashgarak region

4.2.2 Slope Angle in a given area is conducted to investigate its

geographical location in relation to its topographic
Slope angle is among the most important factors conditions. Theoretically, an increase in slope angle
effective in landslide occurrence. Study of slope angle accompanies with the increased shear stress, followed

123
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by increased slope instability. For steeper slopes, rock
materials are dominant. Thus, stability of these slopes
is higher compared to slopes made of looser materials.
On the other hand, steep rocky slopes are more
susceptible to falls because of the concentration and
orientation of joints. Thus, the number of occurred
landslides (sum of the slides and falls) in such slopes is
larger compared to slopes with gentler slope angle. To
perform slope angle analysis, first, DEM layer of the
study area was extracted using the Aster satellite
images. This DEM is of higher accuracy compared to
1:25,000 topographic data maps. Next, using the
‘‘slope’’ operator in ArcGIS, the slope map was
prepared for the study area. Figure 10 shows the slope
angle map for this region using fuzzy logic.
4.2.3 Ground Strength Class
The variable ground strength class is based on
terminology and knowledge from Keefer (2000).
Ground strength class is designed as an index of
ground conditions and material properties, such as
shear strength and rock jointing, with lower values
indicating worse ground conditions (Miles and Keefer
2007). Study area digitized geological map of
1:50,000 with pixel size of 25 m 9 25 m was used
for this purpose (Fig. 11). In this research, each
Fig. 10 Slope angle fuzzy
map for considering
landslide occurrence in
Lashgarak region
lithology unit, listed in Table 1, was assigned to a
ground class value that varied from 1 to 5 with a
precision of 0.5, as required by fuzzy logic. The
ground strength class values are based on the landslide
concentrations calculated for each lithology unit.
4.2.4 Moisture Content
Ground moisture represents information about occur-
rence possibility of landslides with respect to the
degree of ground moisture content. The variable
describes the degree to which the analysis layer is
saturated, relative to the depth of the layer. Ground
moisture is conceptually the ratio of the groundwater
height to the depth of the ground layer under analysis,
multiplied by 100% (Miles and Keefer 2007). This is
the same definition as the m-value used in infinite
slope models typically applied for regional modeling
(e.g., Jibson et al. 1998). This spatial data layer which
indicates ground moisture content in the study area
was prepared using normalized difference moisture
index (NDMI). NDMI (Florina 2013; Fatemi Aghda
and Bagheri 2014) was prepared in PCI Geomatica
software environment using the near-infrared (NIR),
e.g., Landsat TM or enhanced thematic mapper plus
(ETM ?), band 4 (since water absorbs nearly all light
at this wavelength, water bodies appear very dark; this
123

Fig. 11 Ground strength
class fuzzy map for
considering landslide
occurrence in Lashgarak
region
contrasts with bright reflectance for soil and vegeta-
tion, so it is a good band for defining the water/land
interface), the short wavelength infrared (SWIR) band
5 (this band is very sensitive to moisture and is
therefore used to monitor ground moisture), and Eq. 1
(Fig. 12). It must be noted that to determine ground
moisture, in addition to NDMI, one can apply soil
moisture index (SMI) (Orn-uma and Lal 2009; Orn-
uma and Bulgan 2010). Based on Fatemi Aghda and
Bagheri (2014), to select the optimum index for
ground moisture determination in this research, first,
both indices were applied in the study area. Then, by
comparing the results obtained from these two indices
(NDMI and SMI) with those of field observations, it
was found that those parts of the study area which
indicated the maximum ground moisture based on
field investigations and observations highly corre-
spond with information layer obtained from NDMI.
Therefore, NDMI was used for the determination of
ground moisture in the study area.
NIRð4Þ  SWIRð5Þ
NDMI ¼ ð1Þ
NIRð4Þ þ SWIRð5Þ
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Geotech Geol Eng
4.2.5 Vegetation Cover
As shown in Table 8, vegetation cover plays a key role
(in mechanical aspects) on both stability and instabil-
ity of the slopes (Brand 1984). Little specific knowl-
edge about the influence of vegetation on the different
types of landslides exists in the literature beyond the
decision tree for assessing disrupted rock fall and slide
susceptibility of Keefer (1993). Conceptually, the
variable refers to the vegetation coverage (concentra-
tion) of a given area, expressed as a percent of the area
(Miles and Keefer 2007). Spatial data layer indicating
vegetation coverage in the study area was prepared
using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
(Deering et al. 1975; Fatemi Aghda and Bagheri
2014), which in turn was calculated by the red light
(RED), e.g., Landsat TM or enhanced thematic
mapper plus (ETM ?), band 3 (plant species identi-
fication, man-made feature identification) and the NIR
band 4 (soil moisture monitoring, vegetation moni-
toring, water body discrimination) and Eq. 2 in PCI
Geomatica software environment (Fig. 13).
NIRð4Þ  REDð3Þ
NDVI ¼ ð2Þ
NIRð4Þ þ REDð3Þ
Geotech Geol Eng
Fig. 12 Moisture content
fuzzy map for considering
landslide occurrence in
Lashgarak region
Table 8 Effect of vegetation on slope stability
Effect Positive effects of vegetation on slope stability
mechanism
Mechanical Soil and rock mass reinforcement by the roots
Reinforcement and support role of the tree trunks
Extra load of the slope by weight of large trees
Prevention of loose blocks rolling by the trees
Hydrological Reducing atmospheric precipitations through the evaporation and
perspiration from branches and leaves for reducing soil moisture and
increase in soil suction by the root
5 Landslide susceptibility zonation using fuzzy
logic
Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic theories are considered as
highly efficient and useful tools for modeling and
mathematical configuration of uncertainties and inac-
curacies involved in human cognitive processes. To
apply fuzzy logic it is required to note that the fuzzy
theory is known as the most common method for
assessment and study of uncertainties in multi-criteria
decision making. Indeed, this method allows analyz-
ing a wide range of objective information, quantitative
data, and mental remarks and judgments to a natural
Negative effects of vegetation on slope
stability
Extra load on the slope by the weight of
heavy trees
Wedge role of the roots in the surface rocks
and their uprooting in severe storms
Maintaining the permeability capacity at a
high level
language in order to describe the environmental
effects (Motavali and Esmaeeli 2013).
After zonation of a given area using every distinct
criterion, overlaying the fuzzified information layers,
and obtaining the output, the fuzzy intersection
(AND), fuzzy union (OR), fuzzy algebraic sum
(SUM), and fuzzy multiplication (PRODUCT) oper-
ators, and different fuzzy gamma values (0.3, 0.5, 0.7,
0.95, etc.) are used to determine degree of membership
for all pixels in final landslide hazard map.
The fuzzy AND operator is an intersection operator
that extracts the minimum degree of membership. This
operator extracts the minimum value (weight) of each
123

Fig. 13 Vegetation cover
fuzzy map for considering
landslide occurrence in
Lashgarak region
pixel among all information layers and considers it in
the final map. By overlaying the information layers
with AND operator (Fig. 14), it was found that except
some parts of the study area along the communication
lines that have a moderate susceptibility, the rest of the
parts have a very low susceptibility.
The fuzzy OR operator extracts a maximum degree
of membership for the spatial units of the various
factors in a given area and considers them in the final
map. In other words, this operator limits the combined
degree of membership using the most suitable maps of
the factors. This operator is used for areas with rare
overlaying criteria, but adequate positive likelihood
factors. Using OR operator (Fig. 15), all parts of the
study area adjacent to the transportation roads, faults
(Mosha-Fasham and North Tehran faults), rivers, and
Latiyan Lake area and also some part of geological
formations with low strength (Table 1; Fig. 11) indi-
cated a very high landslide susceptibility. In compar-
ison, the minimum landslide susceptibility was for
areas with low slope angles, relatively flat areas such
as the surrounding area of Tehran, and areas consisting
of geological formations with high strength. It is
noteworthy that the landslide susceptibility map
obtained using this operator is highly consistent with
distribution map of occurred landslide in the Lash-
garak region. In this regard, the majority of occurred
123
Geotech Geol Eng
landslides in the study area fit with areas with a
maximum degree of landslide susceptibility, implying
the high precision and performance of this operator for
susceptibility zonation of the occurred landslides in
Lashgarak region.
The combined degree of membership obtained
using PRODUCT operator limits toward a very small
value because of multiplying several values less than
1. On contrary to AND and OR operators, all values of
the degree of membership in PRODUCT operator
have an impact on the output map; however, the
effective factors weaken each other. Considering the
performance of PRODUCT operator (Fig. 16), it is
clear that a limited part of the study area along the
roads is subject to moderate susceptibility.
Using the SUM fuzzy operator, the output is always
greater or equal to the maximum degree of member-
ship in the fuzzy sets. Thus, because of the increased
impact of SUM operator, the maximum landslide
susceptibility is achieved (Fig. 17). The results of this
operator are highly similar to those obtained from
fuzzy OR operator, except that the landslide suscep-
tibility value of this operator is higher than the
expected level for some parts of the study area,
implying the overestimation involved in this operator.
The various values of fuzzy gamma operator
provide different landslide susceptibility values.
Geotech Geol Eng

Fig. 14 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using AND operator

Fig. 15 Landslide occurrence susceptibility map in Lashgarak region using OR operator

Using Eq. 3, the landslide susceptibility maps were lcombination ¼ ðFuzzy Algebraic SUMÞk
prepared for the study area considering gamma fuzzy
 Fuzzy Algebraic ProductÞ1k ð3Þ
operator values of 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.95 (Figs. 18, 19,
20, 21).

123
 Geotech Geol Eng

Fig. 16 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using PRODUCT operator

Fig. 17 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using SUM operator

where lcombination is the information layer obtained
from fuzzy gamma operator and k is a variable ranging
from 0 to 1.
The fuzzy gamma operator (k) is the general state
of fuzzy PRODUCT and SUM operators. Using a
proper gamma value, the monotonically decreasing
and increasing operators can be simultaneously com-
bined. Therefore, it is possible to obtain some outputs
that are the result of adjusted flexibility between the
decreasing and increasing tendencies of these two

123
Geotech Geol Eng

Fig. 18 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using gamma operator (k)
values of 0.3

Fig. 19 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using a gamma operator (k)
values of 0.5

PRODUCT and SUM operators (Moradi et al. 2010).
The pixel values are controlled by appropriate selec-
tion of gamma value (k). In this research, a wide range
of gamma values (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.95) was used
(Lee 2007). For information layer obtained from
gamma 0.95%, it was observed that the areas along the
mainlines fall within the zone with high susceptibility.
By shifting from high to low fuzzy gamma values, the
values closer to those of fuzzy PRODUCT are
obtained, as when applying gamma value of 0.3 a
high similarity with the results of fuzzy PRODUCT is
achieved.

123
 Geotech Geol Eng

Fig. 20 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using gamma operator (k)
values of 0.7

Fig. 21 Landslide
occurrence susceptibility
map in Lashgarak region
using gamma operator (k)
values of 0.95

For statistical validation of the obtained results, the
spatial analysis of the results in a systematic way is of
the highest importance (Ahmed et al. 2013). To
evaluate the designed model and prove its accuracy,
the frequency ratio chart was used in the present work.
Since the landslide susceptibility map prepared using
fuzzy OR operator provided the highest consistency
with occurred landslides distribution map in the
Lashgarak region, frequency ratio chart was used to
evaluate the accuracy of the susceptibility map.
Theoretically, the frequency ratio values are increas-
ing from ‘‘low’’ susceptibility to ‘‘high’’ susceptibility

123
Geotech Geol Eng
Table 9 Frequency ratio
values for various landslide
susceptibility classes
120
Number of occurred Landslide
100
80
60
40
20
0
Low Moderate
Susceptibility Zones
Fig. 22 Frequency ratio chart for landslide susceptibility
classes
(Pradhan and Lee 2010a; Bui et al. 2012; Pour
Ghasemi et al. 2014).
The results shown in Table 9 and Fig. 22 prove the
validity of the mentioned assumption as the landslide
frequency is gradually increasing and 88.34% of the
occurred landslides are in two ‘‘high’’ and very ‘‘high’’
susceptibility classes. This result is in agreement with
those reported by Pardhan and Lee (2010a), Pour
Ghasemi et al. (2012a, b, 2013, 2014), and Bui et al.
(2012).
6 Conclusion
The main objective of this research is to prepare
landslide susceptibility zonation map and investigate
landslide influence on lifelines of Lashgarak region.
After preparation of landslide distribution map, the
information layers including slope angle, terrain
roughness, vegetation cover, moisture content, ground
strength class, distance from the road, distance from
faults (Mosha-Fasham and North Tehran faults), and
distance from the river, were selected as factors
effective on landslide occurrence in the study area. By
analyzing criteria effective on landslide hazard
Susceptible zone Area under category (%) Number of landslides
Low 5.93 7
Moderate 17.04 13
High 27.45 40
Very high 49.58 113
P
100.00 173
increase in Lashgarak region using the fuzzy logic, it
was revealed that different fuzzy logic operators
provide different results. The common point of all
these operators is that the landslide occurrence
susceptibility along some parts of transportation roads
was ‘‘moderate,’’ ‘‘high,’’ and ‘‘very high,’’ with
‘‘high’’ susceptibility as the dominant class. The
results of AND, gamma (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.95), and
PRODUCT operators indicated that only some parts of
the study area along the transportation road had ‘‘low’’
High Very High
to ‘‘moderate’’ landslide susceptibility. In comparison,
the results obtained using OR and SUM operators
revealed that the main part of the study area have a
‘‘moderate’’ and greater landslide susceptibility.
Using fuzzy OR operator, all parts of study area
adjacent to transportation lines, faults (Mosha-Fasham
and North Tehran faults), rivers, Latiyan Dam area,
and some geological formations with low strength
indicate a ‘‘very high’’ landslide susceptibility,
whereas the minimum landslide susceptibility is for
areas with low slope angle, relatively flat areas such as
those around Tehran City, and geological formations
with higher strength. The results of fuzzy algebraic
SUM operator are highly similar to those obtained
from fuzzy union (OR) operator, except that the
landslide susceptibility value of this operator is higher
than the expected level for some parts of the study
area, implying the overestimation involved in this
operator. A comparison among the landslide suscep-
tibility maps obtained using different fuzzy operators
reveals that the map prepared using fuzzy union (OR)
operator is highly consistent with occurred landslide
distribution map in the study area. In this regard, the
majority of landslides occurred in Lashgarak region fit
with zones with maximum landslide susceptibility,
implying the high accuracy and performance of this
operator for landslide susceptibility zonation in this
region. Furthermore, comparing the landslide suscep-
tibility map obtained using a fuzzy union (OR)
operator with all factors effective in landslide
123

occurrence reveals that parameters including ground
strength class, distance from fault, distance from the
river, and distance from the road had maximum impact
on landslide occurrence, while terrain roughness had
minimum effect on landslide occurrence. Addition-
ally, parameters including moisture content (NDMI),
slope angle, and vegetation cover (NDVI) had a
‘‘moderate’’ impact on the occurrence of this phe-
nomenon. The landslide susceptibility map prepared
using fuzzy OR operator indicates that, in the view of
landslide susceptibility, the entire Lashgarak region
can be classified into four classes (Table 9): low
(5.93%), moderate (17.4%), high (27.45%), and very
high (49.58%). Overall, more than 75% of the study
area is located in ‘‘high’’ to ‘‘very high’’ landslide
susceptibility categories.
Finally, the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility
map prepared using fuzzy OR operator was assessed
using frequency ratio chart. The results shown in
Table 9 and Fig. 22 indicate that the frequency values
of landslides in ‘‘low’’ to ‘‘high’’ susceptibility classes
are gradually increasing, as 88.34% of the landslides
are in ‘‘high’’ and ‘‘very high’’ classes.
Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is
considered as the first step for landslide hazard
mitigation. The output of this work can be of
assistance for native societies and residents of at-risk
areas, urban planners, and engineers for reducing
losses induced by occurred and future landslides
through prediction, prevention, and avoidance strate-
gies. These results also can be useful for describing
triggering factors in the occurrence of detected
prehistoric landslides, for advocating the decisions
made during the crises, and maintaining and acceler-
ating the efforts made for reducing future landslide
hazards in the Lashgarak region, Tehran.
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