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AUSTRALIA V INDIA

Australia’s reverse swing woes, and what it means for the ball-
tampering trio

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by Ben Gardner / January 8, 2019 - 3:16pm

CricViz ball-tracking stats show that Australia’s ability to extract reverse-

swing disappeared when Smith, Warner and Bancroft were banned. It’s an
inconvenient truth Cricket Australia are conveniently ignoring, writes Ben
Gardner.

“I
t appears to be an isolated incident but if there are other allegations we will take
them further,” said former Cricket Australia CEO James Sutherland speaking after the
conclusion of a two-day investigation into the Cape Town ball-tampering scandal.

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Here are the facts, presented at first with as little comment as possible. In the first three
games
JOIN of
THEtheir Test series against South Africa, Australia’s quicks averaged
CLUB 1.37 degrees of
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swing between overs 40-80. In the fourth Test, after Cameron Bancroft, Steve Smith, and
David Warner were banned for their part in the ball-tampering scandal, the corresponding
figure dropped to 0.88 degrees.

Starc, Hazlewood, and Cummins have all struggled with the old ball this summer

Against England last winter (Australia’s summer) in that period of the innings, Australia’s
seamers averaged 0.71 degrees of swing. This winter that figure is 0.45. England’s and
India’s corresponding numbers in those summers are 0.59 and 0.61. Last winter, Australia’s
fast bowlers averaged 29.85 between overs 40-80. This winter they average 46.57, almost
identical to England’s 46.54 from last year. India meanwhile averaged 22.93 in that period.

Starc’s struggles have been the most focussed on, and he’s the bowler you’d expect to
struggle most in the absence of reverse swing. Seven times Starc has averaged less than 0.6
degrees of swing between overs 40-80, and five have come in the last five Tests. In the first
three games of the South Africa series – Starc didn’t play the final Test due to injury – he
averaged 15.12 with theSTORIES
MATCHES old ball. Since then he’s
YOUR averaged 84MAGAZINE
GAME with it. But to some extent,
MENU no
Australian pace bowler has been spared the downturn, each averaging significantly less old-
ball
JOIN swing
THE this year compared to last, and averaging significantly more
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Then and now: Australia's reverse-swing struggles

17/18, v England 18/19, v India

Old-ball swing Old-ball Old-ball swing Old-ball
Name
(degrees) average (degrees) average
Mitchell Starc 0.904 32.60 0.464 58.00
Josh
0.735 28.66 0.510 68.00
Hazlewood
Pat Cummins 0.520 22.66 0.439 33.50

So, Australia are getting significantly less swing with the old ball than they were, with the
drop-off starting exactly when they were found to be ball-tampering. That their respective
opponents got almost exactly the same amount of old-ball swing in Australia – and
achieved very similar levels of old-ball swing when they faced off in England (India’s 1.216
to England’s 1.229 degrees) – suggests that the conditions haven’t changed markedly.

The other metrics for whether a pace bowler is out of form would seem to suggest
Australia’s aren’t, on the whole. For each of Starc, Cummins, and Hazlewood, this series is
the quickest they’ve ever bowled in terms of average speed. Starc and Hazlewood each
extracted more seam movement against India than their career averages, suggesting their
seam positions haven’t been scrambled, while Cummins’ accuracy – his percentage of
deliveries bowled on a good line and length – is the best he has recorded in a series.

Cricket balls are vexing objects, and you can prove anything with stats, but this is about as
close to a controlled experiment as you could hope for, and nine months on from the Cape
Town Test, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Australia were almost certainly ball-
tampering in the months leading up to that fateful day, as well as on the day itself.

‘So what?’ might be the perhaps jaded reaction, and in some ways, it’s fair enough. It might
worry Australia from a cricketing point of view, and allow England fans to enjoy a deal of
Schadenfreude, but Australia ball-tampering more than once mightn’t seem like any great
crime. It is an open secret, or at least a popular conspiracy theory, that all teams in the
world partake in the practice to some extent.

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Smith gave an emotional press conference after being banned

But Smith, Bancroft, and Warner’s crimes were never limited to just ball-tampering; they
extended to the deceit and cover-up that followed. There was Bancroft hiding the offending
sandpaper down his trousers and then saying that what used was yellow tape to pick up
dirt on the wicket to rub on the ball, before admitting it was sandpaper all along.

Smith was party to that lie, and has shown himself elsewhere to be at best forgetful, and at
worst deliberately misleading, at first implying he was one of a “leadership group” that
“made a poor choice”, before claiming that his mistake was simply failing to prevent Warner
and Bancroft’s plot. “I walked past something and had the opportunity to stop it and I didn’t
do it,” he said in a recent interview.

Again, in any other side in the world, someone lying, getting banned for a year, and
returning would probably be fine, even if they never really admitted to lying in the first
place. Teammates don’t have to be best friends, they just have to tolerate each other
enough to play cricket. But this is Australia, a side supposedly undergoing a wholesale
personality change, brought on by that incident and the scathing culture review that
followed, a team hellbent on winning over their nation again, and so determined to show
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their changed ways that they painted the words ‘elite honesty’ onto their changing room
walls.
JOINIt’s overdone,
THE CLUB but it’s also a welcome break from Australia’s macho, uncompromising
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past.

Related Story: ‘Dave suggested to me to carry the action out on the ball’ – Bancroft

It is tough to see, given what we’ve been told, how Australia’s selectors can justify picking
the banned trio again, while, as far as we know, it’s likely that they have, essentially, been
lying or at least omitting to tell the truth since this whole saga began. It will risk all the work
that’s been done to win back the public’s trust.

They will pick them, of course, at least some of them. Winning games of cricket is too
ingrained as the only thing that matters in the end. The pre-training meet-and-greets with
the old teammates went smoothly, the self-flagellating/aggrandising adverts and open
letters have been published. The public rehabilitation attempt is in full swing. Just don’t
expect any actual healing.

Maybe those in power know something we don’t, have seen some compelling evidence to
suggest Cape Town was a one-off. Or maybe we know all there is, and they are simply
choosing not to explore what went before. Either way, they are taking a gamble that the
cricket-loving public will choose to accept the lack of closure, and simply welcome them
back, sins forgotten if not forgiven.

It’s a risk that will probably pay off too, at least to the extent that the players will be allowed
to return without uproar; there seems no appetite for greater outrage, not after its been
dragged out for so long already, and not when Australia are struggling so much on the field.
But cricket and Australian cricket will be the poorer for it.

Topics australia australia v india ball tampering scandal

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AUSTRALIA V INDIA
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 Australia's reverse swing woes, and what it means for the
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The uncomfortable truth of Australia's reverse swing woes

Ben Gardner / January 8, 2019

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