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Lesson-2 1
Statistical Tools for Process Control
2
Check sheets explore what and where
an event of interest is occurring.
Attribute Check Sheet
Order Types 7am-9am 9am-11am 11am-1pm 1pm-3pm 3pm-5-pm
Emergency
Nonemergency
Rework
Safety Stock
Prototype Order
Other
27 15 19 20 28 3
Run Charts
measurement
time
Look for patterns and trends…
4
SCATTERPLOTS x x x
x x x xx
x x x
x xx x x x
x x xx x
xx x x x
x xx x x x
xx xx xx
x xx xxx x x x
x x
x xx xx
xx x
xx
x
Larger values of
x
xx
xxx xx
xxx x x xx
x x variable A appear to
x
x
x xx
x x xx
xx x
x
x be associated with
x
x
xx
xxx
xxx x
xx
x
xx xxx
x
x larger values of
x x x xx x x x variable B.
x x x xx
x x xx x x
xx x x x
Variable B
5
HISTOGRAMS
A statistical tool used to show the extent
and type of variance within the system.
Outcome 6
PARETO ANALYSIS
A method for identifying and separating
the vital few from the trivial many.
Percentage of Occurrences
A
B
C
D
EF
G H I J
Factor
7
We will focus on CONTROL CHARTS
Lesson-3 8
Process Variation
9
Have you ever…
• Shot a rifle?
• Played darts? A
Lesson-3 11
Variability
• Deviation = distance between 8
7
observations and the mean (or 10
8
average) 9
Observations Deviations
A
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4
averages 8.4 0.0
B
Lesson-3 12
Variability
• Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or
average)
A
Observations Deviations
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 6
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 7
7
averages 6.6 0.0 B
6
Lesson-3 13
Or
Lesson-3 14
Variability
8
• Variance = average distance between 7
10
observations and the mean squared 8
9
A
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 2.56
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6 0.36
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4 1.96
B
averages 8.4 0.0 1.0 Variance
Lesson-3 15
Variability
• Variance = average distance between
observations and the mean squared
A
Variance Standard
Deviation
A 1.0 1.0
B 0.24 0.4898979 B
Even very rare Fewer Most outcomes Fewer Even very rare
outcomes are in the occur in the in the outcomes are
possible “tails” middle “tails” possible
(probability > 0) (lower) (upper) (probability > 0)
Lesson-3 18
“Normal” bell shaped curve
Lesson-3 19
Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls outside 3
standard deviations?
2. One observation falls in zone
A?
3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone A?
4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
6. 8 consecutive points above the
mean, rising, or falling?
X XX
XX 1X XXX2 3 4 5 6 78
Lesson-3 20
Theory of Variance
• Variation causes many problems for most processes
• Causes of variation are either “common” or “special”
• Variation can be either “controlled” or “uncontrolled”
• Management is responsible for most variation
Categories of Variation
21
Causes of Variation
What prevents perfection? Process variation...
22
Specification vs. Variation
• Product specification
– desired range of product attribute
– part of product design
– length, weight, thickness, color, ...
– nominal specification
– upper and lower specification limits
• Process variability
– inherent variation in processes
– limits what can actually be achieved
– defines and limits process capability
• Process may not be capable of meeting
specification!
23
Limits
• Process and Control limits:
– Statistical
– Process limits are used for individual items
– Control limits are used with averages
– Limits = μ ± 3σ
– Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special causes)
• Specification limits:
– Engineered
– Limits = target ± tolerance
– Define acceptable & unacceptable
Lesson-3 24
Process vs. control limits
Distribution of averages
Control limits
Specification limits
Distribution of individuals
Process limits
Lesson-3 25
Usual v. Unusual,
Acceptable v. Defective
A B C D E
μ Target
Lesson-3 26
More about limits
Good quality:
defects are rare
(Cpk>1)
μ
target
Capable process
μ1 μ2
Lesson-3 30
Going out of control
• When an observation is unusual, what can we
conclude?
σ2
Lesson-3 31
Process Centering -- Example
For the granola bar manufacturer, if the process is
incorrectly centered at 2.05 instead of 2.00 ounces, what
fraction of bars will be out of specification?
Mean
LSL USL
C pk min ,
3 3
• If Cpk > 1.0, process is... Centered & capable
• If Cpk < 1.0, process is... Not centered &/or not capable
33
Calculating the limits
Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X A2 R
Use formulas to find limits for R chart:
LCL D3 R UCL D4 R
Lesson-3 34
x & R Chart Parameters
n d(2) d(3) A(2) D(3) D(4)
2 1.128 0.853 1.881 0.000 3.269
3 1.693 0.888 1.023 0.000 2.574
4 2.059 0.880 0.729 0.000 2.282
5 2.326 0.864 0.577 0.000 2.114
6 2.534 0.848 0.483 0.000 2.004
7 2.704 0.833 0.419 0.076 1.924
8 2.847 0.820 0.373 0.136 1.864
9 2.970 0.808 0.337 0.184 1.816
10 3.078 0.797 0.308 0.223 1.777
11 3.173 0.787 0.285 0.256 1.744
12 3.258 0.778 0.266 0.284 1.716
16 3.532 0.750 0.212 0.363 1.637
17 3.588 0.744 0.203 0.378 1.622
18 3.640 0.739 0.194 0.391 1.609
19 3.689 0.734 0.187 0.403 1.597
20 3.735 0.729 0.180 0.414 1.586
21 3.778 0.724 0.173 0.425 1.575
22 3.819 0.720 0.167 0.434 1.566
23 3.858 0.716 0.162 0.443 1.557
24 3.895 0.712 0.157 0.452 1.548
25 3.931 0.708 0.153 0.460 1.540
35
Let’s try a small problem
smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6
observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
x-bar
R
UCL
Centerline
LCL
Lesson-3 36
Let’s try a small problem
Lesson-3 37
X-bar chart
14.0000
12.0000 11.6361
10.0000
8.0000 8.0556
6.0000
4.4751
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
1 2 3 4 5 6
Lesson-3 38
R chart
10
9.0125
8
6
4 3.5
2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Lesson-3 39
Interpreting charts
• Observations outside control limits indicate
the process is probably “out-of-control”
• Significant patterns in the observations
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control”
• Random causes will on rare occasions indicate
the process is probably “out-of-control” when
it actually is not
Lesson-3 40
Chart advice
• Larger samples are more accurate
• Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control
• Don’t convert measurement data to “yes/no” binomial data
(X’s to P’s)
• Not all out-of control points are bad
• Don’t combine data (or mix product)
• Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?)
• Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)
Lesson-3 41