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I sorted my theories by the episodes they apply to, starting with some general theories, then
episode-specific ones. Then I finish with some small future predictions and some detailed
'sample' scenarios, which combine some of my theories into one story. I went with the
'quantity instead of quality' approach that I've been taught by Battler and Ange in episode 4.
If you think that's a cop-out, you can check out the rating system below which I applied to
each theory. The one's I strongly believe in and are my 'official' predictions and have 4/5 or
5/5 on my seriousness scale. They are also color-coded for your convenience!
1/5 = I barely believe in the theory myself, but wanted to throw it out there, just in case.
2/5 = I think it is unlikely, but I won't be surprised if there is a little bit of truth to it.
3/5 = A theory that I think could be at least partially true, but I am not entirely convinced.
4/5 = A theory I believe in. It may not be perfect, but my instinct says I'm onto something.
5/5 = The absolute and undeniable truth. Might as well be written in red. Deal with it!
For most of my theories I used the following assumptions and methods of logic. I applied a
'perception filter' to everything I saw on-screen. This means, I considered the
trustworthiness of each character who witnessed the events: Shannon, Kanon, Genji and
Nanjo's testimonies are generally regarded as suspicious, while I only really trust the things
Battler has seen with his own eyes, since I am taking his side in this conflict. Events that
result in each character who was present dying are also not trusted. This doesn't mean that I
dismiss everything that has been shown, but I try to determine how much of it is plausible
and how much isn't, and what it could mean if it was meant symbolically. Kind of like how
the 'pitfalls' could have been just a feeling that came from a drug. Or the golden threads
could be a gun with a very high calibre. The same methods apply to the observation of the
general timeline. My initial efforts were very focused on finding motivations for possible
culprits, not so much the closed room mysteries themselves.
My end goal of these theories is to prove that magic was not involved in the murders of
Rokkenjima. I fully accept the time loop and 'meta game' itself as magical, as it is necessary
for this game to even take place. However, I deny that the murder case cannot be explained
without magic. In short: The culprit(s) is/are human and the murders are possible to carry
out with means available to these humans! The farthest I am willing to go in my theories is
some pseudo science. Examples would be the existence of artificially created human life
(clones, homunculi), zombies, strange and unique diseases (like Hinamizawa Syndrome)
and ridiculous inventions (highly effective guns, other 'gadgets' to assist in the murder,
elaborate traps). Though the more of these will be used in the big reveal at the end, the more
pissed I'll be, since these are all some sort of cop-out, in my opinion. But one or two of them
can be totally fine, if they are well explained and fit in thematically. (Like they did in
Higurashi for the most part) And that's what I am trying to do here!
Disclaimer: While mostly complete, I did not think this through to the very end. Most notably
I am still very clueless about the events of EP 4.
ALL EPISODES
"ZEN ZEN DAME DA!" - 1/5
The 'objective' makes a complete 180 in the second half of the VN. You thought this was about
solving a bunch of mass murders? Well, too bad! Guess again! You won't figure out shit, because
this assumption was utterly false. I don't know what the real focus of the mystery could be, so if this
one's true, I officially lost. This can be combined with the "Battler is the Ultimate Evil" theory, so
that Beatrice becomes our new protagonist, or with a bunch of other theories. If my "Soon™"
theory (FUTURE EPISODE PREDICTIONS) turns out to be true, this could be its continuation. I
hope this one is false, that's where the low rating comes from.
"When the Higurashi – I mean, the Uminekos Cry!" a.k.a. "Rokkenjima Syndrome" – 1/5
You could pretty much cut out and paste the big revelation of Higurashi into Umineko and it would
make a surprising amount of sense. An isolated place? Check. A disease that affects the behaviour
and perception of people and turns them into murderers? That would make total sense in this story.
Then why did I give it such a low rating on my scale? Because this would be literally the cheapest
reveal ever and I don't believe Ryukishi would bamboozle us like that. He managed to bamboozle
me plenty of times already without recycling his old content, so I have faith in a more original
revelation later on! (also check out "Beatrice is a Sickness")
"The λ-Files" – 1/5
The government did it! I am still lifting stuff from Higurashi, but sadly this one fits Umineko a lot
less. Not only is observing a remote island during a heavy storm a lot harder than observing a small
village, there have also been zero hints for this. No white vans and the uniformed people we saw
have been confirmed to not have been humans. This theory also only works if we introduce
something the government could be after. Some previous and following theories could deliver
explanations, but I don't really believe in those either – so all in all this is yet another entry that's
just mentioned as some sort of 'safety net' if my other theories fail.
"Battlorice" – 2/5
Battler is Beatrice's son. Since Beatrice may be Kumasawa (see the episode 3 theory), he could be
Kumasawa's son. Much like some other shit theories I had, this one isn't really grounded in
anything. But why was Battler chosen for this game? Perhaps because of their mother/son bond?
This could also be a part of the truth of Battler's sin, though it was said it had nothing to do with
her... so maybe only a small part.
"Beatrice is Kinzo's daughter" – 2/5
Like they speculated in episode 2 about visitor-Beatrice, there could be a secret fifth sibling that the
others don't know about. Maybe the young Beatrice that was kept in the second mansion was
Kinzo's daughter who then died? They already made my husbando dead, so maybe they will add
insult to injury by making him an incestuous pedophile. Since the denial of an additional person in
each of the timelines, this theory has become a lot less likely... but someone among the family
members could still be Kinzo's child. (see "Battler is Kinzo's son")
"Fertile Female Furniture Fucks Fancy Fellow For Fun" a.k.a. "Shannon the Slut" – 2/5
One of my earliest theories was an attempt to explain why Rudolf knew that he would get killed.
We know that Rudolf is quite the ladies' man. And a cheater. We also know that Shannon is bad at
saying 'no' and has a strong desire to love and be loved. Assume for a moment, that Shannon knew
of the impending first twilight. After all, she is one of the trusted servants and thus suspicious in my
eyes. In a very emotional moment, while she was riding Rudolf's magnum dong in the broom closet,
she might have let it slip that a mass murder was planned and Rudolf would be one of the victims.
Another thing that speaks for this theory, is that Rudolf was once murdered by Lust (because he
craves the OPPAI) and Shannon by Greed (because Rudolf just has that extra inch that George
doesn't have).
PS: The longer this went on, the lazier I got. Sorry for not powering through!
PPS: I actually gave up. Welp. But episode 1's write-up is complete!
EPISODE 1
It is the week before the annual family conference. Krauss relaxes in a chair in the parlor, drinking
tea with his wife Natsuhi. Before them on the table lies a folder labeled "Beatrice Protocol". Their
plans are finally about to come to fruition! Long years of planning were necessary and the
preparations were not inexpensive. But Ushiromiya Kinzo has been dead for a while now and they
had access to all the money they ever needed. But Krauss' siblings were vultures. The game they
were playing was a dangerous one. They knew of the dangers, but in their pride they did not realize,
that the other siblings weren't slacking off either... but the Krauss family had the servants on their
side. Genji has sworn his undying loyalty to the new successor, Ushiromiya Krauss. Kanon and
Shannon begrudgingly went along with their devious plans as well. They are furniture after all.
Only three more days until the conference... A storm is coming...
As Eva stepped off the boat and set foot on Rokkenjima, she smiled. The smile wasn't directed at
any of the other family members. No, it was in inward smile. A smile directed at the witch within
her very own heart. Hideyoshi gave his wife a worried glance. But then he shook his head, and with
it vanished any and all doubts. He would support his wife no matter what! It was decided they
would take over the Ushiromiya family! His beloved wife has solved the epitaph. The only key to
become the successor is to murder... no, to kill. This was necessary! There was nothing devious
about it. The future of the Ushiromiya line depended on them. "Tonight you'll die, Baka-Krauss", is
what Eva muttered under her breath, as they approached the steps leading up to the mansion.
Some time after lunch, Kyrie had been wondering where her husband went. "He's probably smoking
somewhere again", she thought and didn't think much about it. But when Ruolf vanished into the
broom closet with Shannon, there was someone who noticed. That someone was Natsuhi, who has
been wandering around the mansion, trying to forget her headache that continually grew worse ever
since last year... ever since they started planning this ceremony. She was close to her breaking point.
After listening to the sweet moans of Shannon and Rudolf and getting her panties all wet because
Krauss could never satisfy her like that, she decided to leave. Shannon was no longer a reliable
pawn in their plans for this night. She had to notify Krauss! Krauss would take care of her and make
sure that she wouldn't spill anything. But it was too late. "Something horrible will happen
tonight...", whispered Shannon into Rudolfs ear. "What is it, babe?", responded the old horndog,
who already thought about the next opportunity to cheat with his wife. "You will all be murdered by
Genji and Krauss." And then she proceeded to tell him about Krauss' evil plans. Rudolf only half-
heartedly believed it, but would later let his wife and son, just in case.
Later that day, Natsuhi had caused quite the uproar with a certain letter she had prepared for a while
now. It was all part of the "Beatrice Protocol". Of course the mentally challenged child of Rosa
wouldn't see through her own laughable disguise she used in the rose garden. She believed every lie
that she was fed! Krauss would take care of the rest this night, when she would already have went to
bed. Krauss had already changed the time table for the servants, so he could make sure that nothing
would interfere with his plans and Shannon would be isolated. When the time was right, he would
strike. It was all discussed with Genji beforehand. Krauss counted the sacrifices for the first
twilight: Rudolf, Kyrie, Eva, Hideyoshi, Rosa and Shannon who was serving tea in the parlor. Six
people. Perfect! But when Eva made the first move beforehand, no one was prepared. She counted
the sacrifices as well: Krauss, Rudolf, Kyrie, Rosa, Shannon. One was missing... "I'll kill that whore
Natsuhi in her sleep", she thought to herself. As the furious discussion about the inheritance
problem went on, with most of them putting up a facade, Eva and her husband decided to strike.
SNAP! Eva grabbed Rudolf's head while he was looking at Krauss and snapped his neck with one
swift motion. His vigilance was misdirected at Krauss, he never saw his true enemy coming from
behind. BANG! Hideyoshi, who had drawn a Glock from a hidden holster, put a bullet right into
Krauss' head. As Rosa and Shannon were frozen in fear, Kyrie jumped from her seat. But Eva was
to quick. She roundhouse kicked her, so she was smashed into the wall. Quickly, Hideyoshi aimed
at Shannon. BANG! Then at Rosa. BANG! They were taken care of. Eva approached the barely
conscious Kyrie. "DIE, BIIIIITCH!!!" She smashed her high heel into Kyrie's forehead and with a
sickening crunch the fifth sacrifice was made. Eva took out a sharp knife and went to work on the
corpses faces, cackling like a madwoman in the process. Hideyoshi felt nauseous. "Eva, dear, we
must still find a sixth sacrifice. Let me take care of the rest." Eva quickly wiped only some of the
blood off her hands, took the master key off of Shannon's corpse, then she left the parlor. She snuck
towards Natsuhi's bedroom. After leaning against the door, listening for noises inside, she slowly
and carefully unlocked it and peeked inside. She was asleep. Eva wanted to carefully close the door
again, but noticed the magical charm on the door handle, which was given to her by Jessica earlier.
"Damn, this is a protective charm... a witch couldn't get past it. But this is my chance! If I back off
now, Baka-Natsuhi might even start believing the culprit is a witch!", she thought to herself. She
quietly left the room again and locked it, leaving behind some bloody fingerprints. She met up with
Hideyoshi again, who already desecrated all the corpses to make it look like the work of an evil
witch. After a short discussion, they headed for the servants room. Inside, they surprised a Sudoku-
solving Gohda and killed him as well. They took the tool shed's key that was stored there and
Hideyoshi, who is proficient at carrying heavy things, carried two corpses on his shoulder to the
way there. It took him three hauls to transport the corpses. After everything was done, Eva painted a
magical circle on the tool shed. Everyone would think the witch did it! "Now let's take a shower and
go to bed. There's still plenty of work for us to do tomorrow!", said Eva. Hideyoshi agreed and the
headed back to the mansion, returned the key of the shed to make the servants seem more
suspicious, and locked themselves in their bedroom.
The next day happened. Tears were shed and despite her best efforts, Eva was among the suspects.
Why did only her family not suffer from any losses? If the servants did it, why would they return
the only key to their room? And if both husband and wife were together since they left the
conference early, as they say, that does not count as an alibi. Even Natsuhi realized that. Eva made
jokes about it, but she couldn't fool her instincts. Natsuhi had been talking to Genji, too. They were
still planning on carrying out "Beatrice Protocol". After all, even with Krauss gone, isn't Natsuhi the
most appropriate successor now? She truly convinced herself of that. If Kinzo was still alive, he
might have seen the potential in her as well! Plus she was told that the gold is real after all! When
the second twiligt came, Eva and Hideyoshi were in their rooms. Genji and Kanon were ready to
carry out Natsuhi's plans. Genji climbed through the open window of their room while Eva was
resting on the bed. Genji's throwing knife made short and quiet process of Eva. He then surprised
Hideyoshi in the shower, who did not have his gun with him to defend himself. He killed him as
well. After the deed was done, he prepared the corpses, took Hideyoshi's gun, put up the door chain
and climbed back out the window. He couldn't lock it from the outside, but just shutting it would
suffice. He met back up with Kanon. While Nanjo and Genji, who were in on "Beatrice Protocol"
painted the appropriate magical circle, Kanon and Kumasawa came back with the pliers and cut the
chain of the 'closed room'. As the first ones to enter the room, Kumasawa was too shaken to notice
Kanon quickly locking the window. This was now officially a closed room! But the exhaustion from
running so much weakened poor, frail Kanon. He couldn't keep this up for much longer... especially
since only a bit earlier that day, he had been preparing Kinzo's corpse to be found in the boiler
room. It would take a while before the stench would have dispersed in the mansion.
Later that day, Kanon would die because of exhaustion. The stress of carrying out these murders
weakened him, and since he already had a heart condition, he couldn't carry on any longer. With all
of his remaining strength, he did the last act of a loyal servant and impaled himself with a stake in
the chest. His death was not a suicide and it wasn't an accident either, he died of natural causes.
((I forgot that Maria definitely wasn't the murderer, but I am leaving the next paragraph in anyway. I
will insert a shitty alternate solution))
When 'suspicion' finally fell on the servants while they were holed up in the study, Genji, Nanjo,
Kumasawa and Maria had to leave. Natsuhi was certain that Genji and Nanjo could take care of the
old lady and the young child. After all, Genji even had Hideyoshi's gun with him! ((But Maria
noticed the well-hidden pistol and was outraged! Were these murders not carried out by a witch
after all? Was it just an elaborate plan, crafted by humans? Impossible! With sleight of hands, she
managed to grab his pistol and killed the three others in the parlor.)) The three died because of a
slow poison that was administered to them earlier. The culprit was Krauss. On Genji's body she
found the three remaining stakes. "If I put them into their bodies, Beatrice will be proud of me! Uu-
uu!", cheered Maria, as she carefully carried out the next three twilights in accordance with the
epitaph. She put the pistol back on Genji's corpse. "Beatrice is real, uu-uu! Now I only have to
convince the others! They have to believe! Uu!" She quickly looked at the sheet of phone numbers
and called the study. Then she ran away from the phone and sang. This would surely convince them
that Beatrice came and carried out these murders!
When the others arrived at the parlor, no one would have blamed Maria for such a gruesome triple
murder. That's because she didn't do it! She just placed the stakes. While the children were in the
room, Natsuhi went outside to catch a break. What was happening? The poisoning was supposed to
take effect only later, after they took care of the rest. Krauss must have used a dosage that was too
high. Baka! Meanwhile, George found the pistol on Genji's body. He suspected some sort of Krauss
Konspiracy happening before, but now it was certain. Natsuhi is responsible for the death of his
parents! She needs to die! George hid the gun, and when the others broke out of the parlor, he shot
Natsuhi to death. In the ensuing chaos, all kids ended up dying at the hands of George, who finally
commited suicide because he lost all that was dear to him in life and couldn't live with the guilt.
EPISODE 2
(incomplete) Rosa was sick of being trampled upon by everyone in her life. She wanted to be free!
Free of the influence of the Ushiromiyas and free to do whatever in her personal life. And she
needed money!That's why she decided to take on the name of Beatrice and become the terror that
haunts Rokkenjima. Her stupid child Maria of course believed it when she talked as if she herself
was Beatrice. But fooling the others wouldn't be as easy. Thankfully, Genji agreed with her. After all
it was her who found the key to the Golden Land – the ring of her father Kinzo. With it, she
prepared several letters to be handed out at certain times. And Genji carried the demonic stakes to
make this ceremony complete. She thought she almost messed up when she was seen by Kyrie, but
thankfully for her that woman was very trustful. When Rosa said she should keep their encounter on
the steps leading upstairs secret for a while, she accepted. The first part of the ceremony would be
up to Rosa. Everyone of her siblings and their spouses were invited to the chapel, where a delicious
but deadly meal was waiting for them. And if they refused to eat the meal, they HAD to drink the
equally poisonous beverage on the table. After all, this was to celebrate Rosa's succession as the
head of the Ushiromiya family! Certain rules of etiquette had to be followed. But even though she
was accepted as the one who solved the witch's riddle, her siblings would not step down from their
claims. They wanted their part of the share, too. Rosa expected this, which is why she poisoned the
drinks. After everyone passed out, she took a knife and slit their bellies open. "Let's make this a day
that's worth to be remembered! The world shall see that witches really exist!" She stuffed them full
with candy and left the three gold bars that should prove her positon behind. After locking the door
with the chapel key, she put it in an envelope and stealthily switched it with Maria's envelope. The
envelope with the key continually had it inside from the time of its very creation.
EPISODE 3
EPISODE 4
MY MOTHER'S THOUGHTS
Disclaimer: She only watched the anime with me and I filled her in on the pieces that were missing,
or that were portrayed slightly differently than they were in the VN.
Throughout episodes 1 and 2 she was suspicious of Genji. Mostly because of his very emotionless
and cold behaviour, but also because I explained that Genji and Nanjo are portrayed as the only
close friends of Kinzo in the VN (with Shannon and Kanon being trusted a lot by him as well).
Throughout episode 3 she also suspected Eva, which probably everyone does.
She managed to convince me that in order to solve episode 4 or even all episodes, I need to find
good answers first to Battler's sin and Battler's mom situation. Only then will I have something to
work with. And I have to admit, I kinda agree. My theories are all from a time when I had no idea
about either of those problems.
Her favorites are Battler and Genji, also Ange. Her least favorites are bunny girls.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
The two messages in the bottles that were found were different. We don't know the exact details
written in there, but we know that they contradict each other not only concerning the order of the
deaths, but also the deaths themselves. Especially since Eva arrived. Since I am willing to accept at
least a minimum of magic which created this game, what if the bottles left the island in different
timelines / games and both are true? Rokkenjima is isolated, in that the world around it stayed the
same for the first three games at least, and only the island itself was "reset". So when the bottles left
the perimeter or 'magical boundary', they were then unaffected by the reset. Just like some
characters' memories in Higurashi, they are leftovers from another fragment that carried over into
the one of episode 3 (Ange's future).
Kinzo's ring is another point of interest. It is never denied that a fake couldn't exist, so the various
'Beatrices' in my theories could have just had one of those. Another theory is, that it is decided
beforehand who will be the Beatrice and either Kinzo himself gave them the ring when he was alive
(either directly or indirectly) or let them find it, or Kinzo's successor (Genji?) gave it to them. Or it
was hidden at the location specified in the epitaph... though it was shown that the epitaph was only
solved while the murders were in full progress. But maybe it hinted at the location of the ring,
which was different from figuring out where the gold was. Either way it's a tricky problem that
could easily destroy almost ALL of my theories if a red truth comes up that deals with it. The ring is
needed to create all these seals on the letters... so the whole Rokkenjima situation is almost
definitely planned beforehand in intricate detail.
What about the codes to the locker rooms? The letters for those were also prepared in advance. And
they must have been prepared by someone who was also present during the Rokkenjima incident,
because they were painted at the doors once. It drives me nuts! I'm gonna say Eva did it, because
she's a magnificent bitch.