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Carbon Assessment Methodology
CONFIDENTIAL
HSR impact on carbon emissions
We are seeking to answer 2 questions in the context of a review of highspeed
rail station options serving Heathrow
Potential London station location options
Base assumed HSR route
Description Illustration
Modeled HSR network
1 Birmingham Old Oak
Potential link to LHR HSR trains stop at Common
Potential extension Old Oak Common and (dispersal)
Old Oak Common
to Scotland Euston only; connect
interchange only
to LHR via Heathrow London
Glasgow Edinburgh Express LHR (Euston)
Old Oak
2 Birmingham
HSR link direct Common
HSR link to LHR to/from Heathrow and (dispersal)
via spur (CCC the North via a spur
Newcastle (not modelled) line (with reduced London
on route) frequency) LHR (Euston)
Leeds
3 Birmingham Iver hub
Interchange station
Manchester (dispersal)
~4km north of LHR,
HSR link to LHR
providing dispersal with
via Iver Hub London
airport access by LHR
unmanned shuttle (Euston)
Birmingham 4
LHR station on main Birmingham
HSR link to LHR HSR route, also
via onairport providing dispersal to
station other connecting London
services LHR
(Euston)
(dispersal)
5 Birmingham
HSR loop gives Old Oak
Heathrow HSR link to LHR passengers option of Common
London via onairport direct services either (dispersal)
“loop” to LHR or OOC
London
LHR (Euston)
Source: CCC report; Government Command paper 3
Overall, all options potentially offer carbon savings, with the Heathrow Spur, on
airport station or Heathrow Loop scenarios saving the most CO2
A3 Shift to rail of
378 84 185 196 216 199
passengers transferring
via a European hub (or
other London hubs)
522
0 0 146
0 128
+27 142
+35 +12
B Impact of longer
distance for London
passengers
* Assumed 16 million tonnes in 2030 from DfT
Source: Team analysis based on CCC report. DfT figures, AEA emissions factors, BAA modelling 4
A We have developed a comprehensive view of total journey time for 5 station
location scenarios
Generalised journey time; minutes EDINBURGH EXAMPLE
Transfer time to Frequency Interchange
Injourney time destination2 penalty3 penalty3 Egress time Checkin time4 Total
London Heathrow London Heathrow London Heathrow London Heathrow London Heathrow London Heathrow London Heathrow
1 210 2071 0 25 22 22 0 90 0 0 10 10 242 354
HSR link to
central London
and Old Oak
Common dispersal
1 Journey time to Old Oak Common interchange; further transfer time to Heathrow captured in transfer time
2 Connecting journey time to final destination, e.g. 15 minutes for Heathrowbound passengers arriving at Old Oak Common for
Heathrow Express, plus 5 minutes waiting time and 5 minutes transfer for HEX terminal to airport terminal
3 Penalty applied to approximate passenger reaction to frequency and interchange requirements
4 Assume that rail passengers arrive 10 minutes prior to their train departure
Source: CCC technical modelling, BAA route modelling; team analysis 5
A Rail travel time is highly correlated to market share on any given route, but
airport passengers are less likely to use rail than pointpoint passengers
CCC market share
Rail market share* (Percent)
estimate**
Actual experience
Paris –
Brussels Line of best fit (pointpoint
Paris – Lyon passengers)
100
Madrid – London Edinburgh Assumed migration for
Seville transfer pax with improved
railair integration
London Tokyo – Osaka London Newcastle Line of best fit for
Manchester transfer pax with current
75 level of air/rail inegration
London Glasgow
Roma – Bologna
Paris – London
Stockholm –
50 Gothenburg
Heathrow Glasgow
0
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
* Air vs. rail market share shown Rail travel time (Hours)
** Uses CCCmodelled route to generate journey times (i.e. assumes build to Scotland); assumes construction of “Heathrow spur”
for LHR journeys
Source: UIC; CCC report and interview; team analysis 6
A Increasing airrail integration will improve market share: DB/Lufthansa have
achieved 100% highspeed rail market share on the FrankfurtCologne route
* In current timetables, trains take ~80mins as trains do not run permanently at top speed
Source: Deutsche Bahn; DLR 7
From the line of best fit, we generate base market share forecasts for each
A
city pair combination, differentiating between pointpoint and transfer pax
WITH IMPROVED AIR/RAIL INTEGRATION
Rail vs air projected market share, %
Citycity (i.e., pointpoint market) CityHeathrow (i.e., transfer market)
1 2 3 4 5 Current 1 2 3 4 5 Current
Edinburgh 44 42 42 42 44 23 Edinburgh 0 15 18 24 19 0
Glasgow 44 42 42 42 44 14 Glasgow 0 15 18 24 19 0
Manchester 87 85 85 85 87 73 Prestwick 0 15 18 24 19 0
Manchester 29 58 61 67 62 0
Newcastle 4 33 36 41 37 0
These are the only three UK
destinations close to the HSR line
projected to be served from LHR in Liverpool 24 53 56 61 57 0
2030 under a 2R scenario
Birmingham 39 69 71 77 72 0
Leeds 29 58 61 67 62 0
Source: CCC report; HS2 paper;UIC; Heathrow Surface Access Model; team analysis 8
A When modelling emissions, we have carefully analysed how flight length affects
gCO2 per passenger km
Aviations emissions have a per aircraft
movement plus distance element, whereas Air emissions factors are significantly higher for
rail emissions depend only on distance the shortest routes
Emissions factor (current)
g CO2 per pkm
1 5 220 These emissions factors
4 are assumed to reduce
Taxi/ Taxi 200
Approach over time from
take off in 180
2 Climb landing technological improvement
out 160
140
Desti
1 2 Fixed 3 Varies with fly 120
nation
4 5 per ATM out distance 100 Air (A319)
80
Rail 60 Rail
For trains energy consumed varies 40
linearly with distance travelled* 20
0
ILLUSTRATIVE
Without HSR Future: with HSR
Manchester Manchester
Birmingham
Surface transport HSR lines take city bound
access to London (e.g., passengers directly
via train, car) to/from the city centre
Source: Team analysis 10
~2.6m pointpoint pax will fly between HSRlinked airports and LHR in 2030;
A1 HSR projected to capture ~830,000940,000 and reduce CO2 emissions by ~30kt
p.a.
Pointpoint pax between LHR and HSRlinked
airports in 2030 switching from air to rail under Net emissions reductions from
station location scenarios ATMs freed* switching pax
Pax (‘000) (‘000) CO2 Kt
Maximum potential 2,610 18 90
1 HSR link to central
London and Old 940 6 31
Oak Common
2 HSR link to LHR 830 6
via spur 28
3 HSR link to LHR
860 6 28
via Iver hub
4 HSR link to LHR
via dedicated 850 6 28
Heathrow station
5 HSR link to LHR
via onairport 910 6 30
“loop”
* Uses ACL schedule for average pax/ATM carried on each UK domestic leg
Source: ACL schedule; HS2 report; UIC; team analysis 11
Air passengers currently flying to Heathrow to transfer to other flights could also
A2
switch to rail, if there is a suitable HSR connection to Heathrow
ILLUSTRATIVE
Manchester Manchester
Birmingham
London
Heathrow London
Heathrow
Source: Team analysis 12
~1.6m transfer pax will fly between HSRlinked airports and LHR in 2030; HSR
A2
is projected to capture up to 590,000 and reduce CO2 emissions by ~18kt p.a.
Transfer pax between LHR and HSRlinked
airports in 2030 switching from air to rail under Net emissions reductions from
station location scenarios ATMs freed* switching pax
Pax (‘000) (‘000) CO2 Kt
Maximum potential 1,610 11 54
1 HSR link to central
London and Old 140 1 3
Oak Common Lower switch
rate of transfer
2 HSR link to LHR 450 pax without 3
via spur 13
dedicated LHR
station
3 HSR link to LHR
500 4 15
via Iver hub
4 HSR link to LHR
via dedicated 590 4 18
Heathrow station
5 HSR link to LHR
via onairport 520 4 15
“loop”
* Uses ACL schedule for average pax/ATM carried on each UK domestic leg
Source: ACL schedule; HS2 report; BAA HSR team; UIC; team analysis 13
Finally, air passengers currently transferring via other European hubs
A3
could also switch to rail via Heathrow, eliminating a shorthaul leg in the process
ILLUSTRATIVE
Helsinki
Glasgow/ Edinburgh
Prestwick
Newcastle
TeesSide Glasgow/ Edinburgh
Manchester
Liverpool Leeds Prestwick Newcastle
Copenhagen TeesSide
Birmingham Leeds
Stansted Manchester
Liverpool
Gatwick
Amsterdam
Birmingham
Frankfurt London
Heathrow
Madrid Zurich
Source: Team analysis 14
~7.3m transfer pax will fly between HSRlinked airports and European and non
A3
LHR London hubs in 2030; HSR could capture up to 4.1m, saving ~216kt CO2 p.a.
Other London hubs
1 HSR link to central
40
London and Old
1,540 13 83 1 84
Oak Common
1,500
3 HSR link to LHR
3,530 130 3,660 31 192 4 196
via Iver hub
4 HSR link to LHR
via dedicated
3,900 150 4,050 35 212 4 216
Heathrow station
5 HSR link to LHR
via onairport
3,590 130 3,720
32 195 4 199
“loop”
* Analysis assumes that passengers are equally willing to transit via Heathrow compared to their existing option, and so excludes
potential impacts from pricing, connection times, customer loyalty etc
** Assumes average 156 seat plane (e.g., A320) with 75% load factor
Source: Airport IS database; HS2 report; BAA HSR team; UIC; team analysis 15
Routing these ~4.1m pax through LHR would add fewer than 3 pax to each ATM
A3
once the freedup ATMs from modal shift are taken into account
Additional capacity using freedup ATMs from modal shift *
Pax (‘000), 2030 Additional LHR pax from European or other London hubs
8,130
In the total potential and In all other options, there are more pax
7,300 routing via Heathrow from alternate European
OOC options, freedup
ATMs from modal shift or London hubs are more than can be
provide more capacity than accommodated using freedup ATMs from
required to service pax modal shift; accordingly pax/ATM has to rise
migrating from other hubs
4,050
3,450 3,660 3,720
2,530 2,680 2.830 2,810
2,130
1,540
Total
potential
1 2 3 4 5
Projections by station location
Increase
in average
NA NA 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.9
pax/ATM
required
at LHR*
* Assumes freedup ATMs from modal shift are applied wholly to new langhaul legs in 1:1 ratio; average pax/longhaul ATM of 280
(from ACL schedule); 480,000 ATMs/year total
Source: ACL schedule; team analysis
16
A The potential CO2 savings increase significantly with extension of the HSR line to
Scotland, and decarbonisation of the UK grid
Potential upside events Emissions impact
Reduction in global CO2 emissions, kt
Description As below plus decarbonisation of UK grid
As below plus extended HSR line to Scotland
Base
▪ Full highspeed link to
HSR line Edinburgh and
extends to 745
Scotland as per CCC
Scotland report
223
407 384
▪ Reduction in UK 357 375
De emissions intensity 116
carbonisation 102 107 110
from current 537kg 188 29
of UK grid 522 29 29 29
CO2 per MWh to 100kg
14
CO2 per MWh by 2030,
56
226 239 262 245
resulting in less
emissions from HSR
118
Total 1 2 3 4 5
potential
Projections by station location
Source: AEA; CCC report; Deutsche Bahn; team analysis 17
B If the Heathrow train link were constructed as a through stop, overall emissions
could increase by ~1235 kt p.a. because of the ~515km extra distance covered
Including Heathrow as a HSR stop will increase distance and emissions
Increase in distance for Increase in 2030 CO2
Illustration nonairport passengers emissions (‘000 tonnes)
Birmingham
1 0km 0
Old Oak Old Oak
Common
Common inter
change only London
LHR (Euston)
2 Birmingham
Old Oak 0km 0
HSR link to Common
LHR via spur
(CCC modelled) London
(Euston)
LHR
3 Birmingham Iver hub
12km +27
HSR link to (dispersal)
LHR via Iver London
LHR
Hub (Euston)
4 Birmingham 15km +35
HSR link to
LHR via on
airport station London
LHR
(Euston)
(dispersal)
5
Birmingham Old Oak 5km* +12
HSR link to
Common
LHR via on (dispersal)
airport station
London
LHR ) (Euston)
* Assumes 1/3 of trains operate via Loop
Source: HS2 Ltd presentation; AEA; BAA modelling of alignments; team analysis 18
Backup
19
2030 emissions intensity for HSR is estimated at 43 g CO2 per passenger km
based on AEA sources
Rail CO2 emissions intensity estimates
Grams per passenger kilometre
Range of estimates depending on train type
5260 2030 figure
extrapolated from 2008
4752 and 2020 trend
43
1026
18 18
25
** Assumes high renewables/nuclear penetration in UK power mix decreases carbon intensity from 537 to 100 kg/MWh