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Notes & Comments T HE M ONITOR S ERIES : L EADING M ARKET P ROFESSIONALS S HAR E U NCOMMON I NSIGHTS
Copyright ©2003, Reprinted by McClellan Financial Publications by special permission. All Other Rights Reserved
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Volume VII, No. 2 F O R M U L A R E S E A R C HTM Page 2
Quantitative Treatment of the Financial Markets
But Tom's commentary ranges far devoted to timing interest rates, precious
{ Philadelphia
Area Subscribers
beyond, tapping a rich array of diverse metals and the stock market. We'll
timing methods and technical tools. It is present systematic strategies for all three
John Durham of
Villanova, PA would
tempting to think of Tom as a one-man sectors based on Tom (and Sherman's)
like to contact Ned Davis Research--a dogged individual original research.
subscribers in that doing the work of an entire team of first-
area to exchange
views, programming rate institutional analysts. Be advised that Tom himself is not a
tips and related strictly mechanical trader. While he relies
ideas. You can
reach John at (610)
Of course, Tom continues to benefit on rigorous historical testing, Tom blends
519-0867. Email: from his father's insights. (For one thing, his findings with personal insights from
pd23@
mindspring.com.
Sherman's hawk-eyed text editing helps dozens of timing tools, most of them
make Tom's prose some of the most liter- unorthodox.
ate and polished in the field.) Meanwhile,
several years ago Tom entered into a This mix of quantitative research and
money management partnership with intuitive judgment has served Tom well as
Roger Kliminski. a market analyst. According to Timer
Digest, a ratings service that tracks over
Roger is a gifted market analyst, an 100 market advisory programs, Tom ranks
experienced portfolio manager and a No. 2 for long-term stock market
longtime friend of Formula Research. I forecasting over the past five years and
have seen the independent performance No. 3 for intermediate timing. Tom ranks
rankings and Global Investment No. 1 in precious metals timing for the
Solutions, the partners' money manage- same period.
ment arm, has consistently beaten the
†
For information on market with low levels of risk. Tom's body of research ranges so
the McClellans’ twice
monthly newsletter and
widely we can't begin to feature every
Daily Edition, visit their We'll touch on Roger's contribution unique indicator here. If you explore his
web site at
www.mcoscillator.com
at the end of this report and in greater work in depth, you'll be treated to a fasci-
detail in Part II of this two-part study. In nating array of innovative timing methods.
or call (800) 872-3737 particular, we'll highlight a key feature of Interested in precious metals? Follow
or (253) 581-4889. If
you prefer to write, the price behavior that counts as an authentic Tom and plot the difference between
address is: market discovery. Building on these 1-month and 12-month gold lease rates, as
McClellan Financial
Publications, Inc.
findings, we'll develop two timing models reported by the London Bullion Market
P.O. Box 39779 that show gains of better
Lakewood, WA 98439
The fax number is
than 25% a year. z
(253) 584-8194.
25%
$600
Cash Gold
Offset 15 Months Forward
The McClellan 20% (Scale Right)
Higher $200
For now we focus 5% Rates
on the McClellan side of 90-Day T-Bill Yield ???
(Scale Left)
the partnership. Tom's 0% $0
principal efforts are
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
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1988
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2002
2003
2004
Volume VII, No. 2 F O R M U L A R E S E A R C HTM Page 3
Quantitative Treatment of the Financial Markets
commercial copper
4%
0%
traders get heavily net 2%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
prices tend to go in the
opposite direction. I
could cite many other by about two years. The fit is not perfect
examples of offbeat but inspired but the overall symmetry is impressive. z
indicators.
Forecasting Short-Term
Interest Rates
To an economist or a
fundamental analyst more
familiar with government statis-
tics, the stunning performance
edge might not seem so aston-
ishing. But speaking for myself,
I would never have known
about this improbably accurate
forecasting tool but for the
depth of Tom's research.
I tested this relative strength observa- be quick to buy and slow to sell. When
tion back to 1971, as far as OTC data both sectors are weak, you want to be
†
Actually, it was allow.† Results were convincing. When slow to buy and quick to sell. z
convenient to substitute the NASDAQ index was the relative
the S&P 500 for the
NYSE index in the
strength leader, the S&P 500 produced an
calculations. The two annualized return of 14.6%. By contrast, Sector Strength and
are highly correlated. when the OTC market lagged in relative Market Returns: II
strength, the annualized gain fell by more
than half to 7.1%. The S&P 500 itself
returned 11.1% a year on a buy-and-hold It was Roger Kliminski who originally
basis. identified our next price pattern. Tom
later refined the observations. The impli-
Tom cites a variation on the theme cations of these findings are among the
that I have not seen reported elsewhere. most riveting market tendencies I know
He notes that a similar pattern applies to of. We'll fully explore a variety of applica-
the OEX index. When the S&P 100 is tions here and in Part II of this study, but
stronger than the S&P 500, stocks in first some background.
general tend to advance. When the OEX
lags in relative strength, the broad market Roger Kliminski has been a successful
suffers. money manager for almost two decades.
When I first came to know him several
I tested this idea since 1976, when years ago, Roger was working with his
OEX data begin. I used the same relative colleague and close friend, Peter Mauthe.
strength formula cited above, this time In 1997 an opportunity opened up and
substituting the S&P 100 for the Peter left to manage the commodity
NASDAQ. Again results were positive. trading funds of Market Wizard Tom
When the OEX was dominant the S&P Basso.
500 returned an annualized 15.1%. When
the OEX lagged in relative strength, the Soon Roger forged a new alliance
annualized gain dropped to 10.9%. The with Tom. For both it was the start of a
S&P 500 itself returned 12.5% a year since rewarding association. Their money
1976. management firm, Global Investment
Solutions, benefits from a distinct synergy,
I wondered what would happen when reflecting the like-minded but independ-
both the NASDAQ and the OEX give ent perspectives of two veteran analysts.
†
For information on
similar signals, either positive or negative. Since Roger and Tom joined forces,
Global Investment
Solutions call Roger As you might expect, the contrast Global Investment Solutions has posted
Kliminski at (800)
between bullish and bearish performance superb returns for its money management
440-7283 or (949)
660-7960. If you prefer is even more striking. When both sectors clients.†
to write, the address is
1300 Bristol Street
are positive, the S&P returns an annual-
North, Suite 208, ized 16.2%. When both sectors lag in Now let's discuss the distinctive
Newport Beach, CA relative strength, the annualized return market pattern that Roger and Tom
92660. The fax number
is (949) 660-7945. drops to 7.3%. uncovered. As most of us know, the
Russell 2000 is a popular index of small-
The lesson is simple. When the OEX cap stocks while the Russell 1000 covers
and NASDAQ are dominant, you want to large-caps. The Frank Russell Company in
Volume VII, No. 2 F O R M U L A R E S E A R C HTM Page 7
Quantitative Treatment of the Financial Markets
turn divides each parent index into two Some interesting findings emerge
sub-groups, Growth and Value. The once you identify the dominant sector in
upshot is an array of four sectors: Russell this fashion. Suppose you simply switch
1000 Growth, Russell 1000 Value, Russell among the four Russell segments accord-
2000 Growth and Russell 2000 Value. ing to which index currently ranks highest.
Since 1995 this method would have
The relative strength of each sector returned 22.5% compounded annually.
has far-reaching implications for price By contrast, the S&P 500 gained just 9.2%
behavior. Roger and Tom have worked a year over the same period. Note that all
out a specific technique to assess this comparisons to the S&P 500 refer to total
sector strength and exploit it in trading. return, with dividends reinvested. The
Since their winning track Timing Four Russell Sectors vs.
record depends in part on a $100,000
S&P 500 Buy-and-Hold: Growth of $10,000
May-97
May-98
Apr-99
Jan-96
Jun-96
Mar-00
Mar-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Jul-95
Dec-96
Nov-97
Sep-00
Aug-01
Aug-02
Jul-03
Oct-98
Oct-99
methods mechanically. The
managers can and do overrule
the signals based on experience
and judgment. For this reason, and chart below shows the comparative equity
because our treatment varies from the curves.
original, the present exercise may be one Breaking down the price data into
† of those cases where real-world returns four discrete segments yields surprising
The Frank Russell
website posts the surpass simulated results, especially in the new insights, information unavailable in
necessary data back to
area of risk control. the parent indices. Suppose you applied a
1995. Go to
www.russell.com and
similar strategy to the Russell 1000 and the
follow the links. Here's how to implement our version Russell 2000. Switching only between
You will have an option of the strategy. We start with daily closing these larger aggregates, the annual gain
to download nominal prices of the four Russell sub-indices.† drops to just 11.8%, not much better than
price values, which are
Now compute the percentage change in the S&P's return of 9.2%.
not adjusted for
dividends, or total return each Russell sub-group over four different
values, which are. I
time frames. In this case we calculate the Roger and Tom's sector research has
used total return. Later I
found that Roger and percent gain or loss over the preceding 5, enormous potential, and we'll present
Tom use unadjusted
15, 25, and 35 days. Next, average the other compelling findings in Part II. First
prices.
results for all time frames into a single we have to address three constraints
The practical difference
reading. The Russell sector with the forthrightly.
is minimal. Perform-
ance results are equally highest composite score is deemed to be
strong. Among the four the relative strength leader. Item number one is the question of
market segments, only risk. This switching strategy offers
the Russell 1000 Value
index would be much extraordinary gains but at a cost.
affected by dividends in
any case.
Volume VII, No. 2 F O R M U L A R E S E A R C HTM Page 8
Quantitative Treatment of the Financial Markets
NOTE: Hypothetical testing such as that reported here is not as accurate and dependable a measure of profitability as
actual trading results. Even if simulated historical testing were completely reliable, which is not the case, past levels of
performance cannot be assumed to prevail in the future. It is not our intention to state, suggest or imply that any
technique or treatment found in FORMULA RESEARCH can guarantee profitable investment results. Trading should be
undertaken only by those well aware of the many risks.