PROBABILITY FIRST MIDTERM EXAM
Dr. Salih FADIL July.11.2012
#1) Let random variable X represent the difference between the number of heads and the
number of tails obtained when a normal coin is flipped five times.
a) Find the probability function of X
b) Draw the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of random variable X. Calculate
PU-3<.X <6)
#2) A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job, She
estimates that there is an 80% chance that she will get the job if she receives a strong
recommendation, a 40% change if she receives moderately good recommendation and a
10% chance if she receives a weak recommendation, She further estimates that the
probabilities that the recommendation will be strong, moderate or weak are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1
respectively.
a) How certain is that she will receive the new job offer?
b) Given that she does receive the offer, how likely should feel that she received a
strong recommendation; a moderate recommendation; a weak recommendation?
¢) Given that she does not receive the new job offer, how tikely should fee! that she
received a strong recommendation; a moderate recommendation; a weak
recommendation?
#3) Five shots are fired at random into a circle of radius R. The diagram shows an inscribed
‘square and four other zones. Find the probability that five shots end up
a) In the same zone,
b) In the five different zones.
GOOD LUCK....@PROBABIITT Fulst WIPTE RY = xAW
SOLUTION =WANUZL
Da Sabb Feo Bulg 4, tom
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° jwed
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Ae 4-8), 4, 4, 3, 53
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4
oy
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S40
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a)
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a i
2 3
pixs ste P\skaots=
ee ela ae Ss
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b)
Way, *——
2b +
oe
(72)
i tbha
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bar
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= p(-sdx ds) = FCs)
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As
=x
te
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a nw job ELuaerdahss, — moderately geod
J lethe (eLsurincr de hy,
lebde
WF Gebkug weal
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P(SQ)=0% plee) =o Pow) 4
a)
By Yang he tote! prlorley Hid, Hes tbinn
PCy) =PNA/ SL) PIER) + PCNS/e2) PER) PTA) Paw et)
y iQ
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a P(N3/Se) De _ ORR OF Hae
bp pGse/ia) = a O68 fa.