PROBABILITY FIRST MIDTERM EXAM Dr. Salih FADIL July.11.2012 #1) Let random variable X represent the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails obtained when a normal coin is flipped five times. a) Find the probability function of X b) Draw the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of random variable X. Calculate PU-3<.X <6) #2) A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job, She estimates that there is an 80% chance that she will get the job if she receives a strong recommendation, a 40% change if she receives moderately good recommendation and a 10% chance if she receives a weak recommendation, She further estimates that the probabilities that the recommendation will be strong, moderate or weak are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. a) How certain is that she will receive the new job offer? b) Given that she does receive the offer, how likely should feel that she received a strong recommendation; a moderate recommendation; a weak recommendation? ¢) Given that she does not receive the new job offer, how tikely should fee! that she received a strong recommendation; a moderate recommendation; a weak recommendation? #3) Five shots are fired at random into a circle of radius R. The diagram shows an inscribed ‘square and four other zones. Find the probability that five shots end up a) In the same zone, b) In the five different zones. GOOD LUCK....@PROBABIITT Fulst WIPTE RY = xAW SOLUTION =WANUZL Da Sabb Feo Bulg 4, tom a) Experiment, A nome coin is Hlipped Lue Hse 9) = {a of brs) a ue fails ) ° jwed \sloktur & Ae 4-8), 4, 4, 3, 53 P{x=-s\= PS on astt= (3) (4) 4 oy pixerle PYtiboati= (S)(4)= & S40 pixe-t]= PQzunat t= (4) = a) pgxat |= Piakaert= (S)(4P9H pixeat= PagnnTye (4) GY2 SS a i 2 3 pixs ste P\skaots= ee ela ae Ss P&=x) = po) 10 Oe. 4 OL BU Bu 32 { zip Oyen eer ® en x >! D pwFup ® b) Way, *—— 2b + oe (72) i tbha ——— bar We : ' = e -5 “3 ~I . od Ss \L ees) = p(-sdx ds) = FCs) Ps gx ze) aah As =x te [ : BS Gets HL) NGF Reahang st = gethny Stong Ce 5 a nw job ELuaerdahss, — moderately geod J lethe (eLsurincr de hy, lebde WF Gebkug weal YeCauiaen ler hon, dey pWN3/sa) =O8 = PONB/en) = 0,4 PL N3/wa)=o4 P(SQ)=0% plee) =o Pow) 4 a) By Yang he tote! prlorley Hid, Hes tbinn PCy) =PNA/ SL) PIER) + PCNS/e2) PER) PTA) Paw et) y iQ HOR KOA+ OY 40,24 07 x01 = 0.48 ( OS% chen) (S a P(N3/Se) De _ ORR OF Hae bp pGse/ia) = a O68 fa.