Volume 1 - Master Plan

The Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia
Ministry of Water Resources
Rift Valley Lakes Basin Integrated Resources

Development Master Plan Study Project
Draft Phase 2 Report

Part I Master Plan
Volume 1: Master Plan
July 2008
Halcrow Group Limited

and
Generation Integrated Rural
Development (GIRD) Consultants
Halcrow Group Limited and

Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
PO Box 102175, Comet Building (5th Floor)
Haile Gebreselassie Road, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel +215-1 (0) 116 63 09 92 Fax +251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
www.halcrow.com
This Report has prepared in accordance with the instructions of the Federal
Government of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources for their sole and specific use.
Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.
© Halcrow Group Limited and Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
2008
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia


Part I Master Plan
July 2008
Halcrow Group Limited

and
Generation Integrated Rural Development
(GIRD) Consultants
Halcrow Group Limited and

Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
PO Box 102175, Comet Building (5th Floor)
Haile Gebreselassie Road, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel +215-1 (0) 116 63 09 92 Fax +251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
www.halcrow.com
This Report has prepared in accordance with the instructions of the Federal
Government of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources for their sole and specific use.
Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.
© Halcrow Group Limited and Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
2008
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia


Part I Master Plan
July 2008
Contents Amendment Record

This report has been issued and amended as follows:
Issue Revisi Description Date Signed

on
1 Report issued to 31 July 2008 C.S.
Ministry of Water Green
Resources
Rift Valley Lakes Basin Integrated Resources Development
Master Plan Study
Phase 2 Report Structure
Part I Master Plan

Volume 2: Annexes
A. Water Resources and Modelling
B. Land Resources and Evaluation
C. Economic Resource Optimisation and
Allocation Model
D. Strategic Environmental Assessment
and Regional Environmental
Management Plan
E. List of Phase 1 Final Reports
Part II Prefeasibility Studies
A Sego Irrigation and Drainage Project

Prefeasibility Study
Volume 1: Main Report

Volume 2: Annexes
A. Terms of Reference
B. Climate, Hydrology and Water
Resources Modelling
C. Soils and Land Suitability
D. Crop Production
E. Livestock
Volume 3: Annexes
F. Socioeconomy
G. Geology, Geotechnical Assessment and
Seismic Hazards
H. Topographic Survey
I. Irrigation
Volume 4: Annexes
J. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
K. Financial and Economic Analysis
Volume 5: Drawings
Master Plan Study
B Lower Segen Irrigation, Drainage and

Multipurpose Project Prefeasibility Study

Volume 2: Annexes
B. Climate, Hydrology and Water
Resources Modelling
C. Soils and Land Suitability
D. Crop Production
E. Livestock
Volume 3: Annexes
F. Socioeconomy
G. Geology, Geotechnical Assessment and
Seismic Hazards
H. Topographic Survey
I. Irrigation
Volume 4: Annexes
J. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
Volume 5: Drawings
C Adami Tulu and its Environs Water Supply and

Sanitation Project Prefeasibility Study

Volume 2: Annexes
B. Population Projections, Water Demand
C. Cost Estimates
D. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
E. Financial and Economic Analysis
Volume 3: Drawings
Master Plan Study
D Yirga Alem and its Environs Water Supply and

Sanitation Project Prefeasibility Study

Volume 2: Annexes
B. Population Projections, Water Demand
C. Cost Estimates
D. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
E. Financial and Economic Analysis
Volume 3: Drawings
E Integrated Watershed Management of Lake

Awasa Sub-basin Prefeasibility Study

Volume 2: Annexes
B. Soil and Water Conservation
C. Water Resources and Lake Awasa
Hydrology
D. Soils and Land Suitability
Volume 3: Annexes
E. Land Cover and Land Use
F. Crop Production
G. Livestock and Rangeland Management
H. Socioeconomic Considerations
Volume 4: Annexes
I. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
J. Forestry
Master Plan Study
F Integrated Watershed Management of Western

Lake Ziway Sub-basin Prefeasibility Study

Volume 2: Annexes
B. Soil and Water Conservation
C. Water Resources and Lake Awasa
Hydrology
D. Soils and Land Suitability
Volume 3: Annexes
E. Land Cover and Land Use
F. Crop Production
G. Livestock and Rangeland Management
H. Socioeconomic Considerations
Volume 4: Annexes
I. Draft Initial Environmental Examination
J. Forestry
Stakeholders Consultation and List of Stakeholders

Appendix to: Part I Master Plan
Part II Prefeasibility Studies
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background to the Master Plan Study
Project 1
1.2 Earlier Studies in the RVLB 2
1.3 Phase 1 Reporting 4
1.4 Structure of the Master Plan Report 5
2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH 7

2.1 Study Objectives 7
2.2 Integrated Development Planning 9
2.3 Planning Concepts and Methodology
11
2.4 Stakeholder Consultation 12
2.5 Geographic Information Systems 13
2.6 Simulation and Optimisation
Modelling 20
2.7 Master Plan Formulation 22
3 The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN 27

3.1 Location 27
3.2 Socioeconomic Features of the RVLB
28
3.3 Land Resources 39
3.4 Water Resources 50
3.5 Energy Resources 58
3.6 Crop Production 63
3.7 Livestock and Rangelands 71
3.8 Other Natural Resources 75
3.9 Industry and Commerce 84
3.10 Economic Infrastructure and Public
Services 87
4 KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE RVLB 94

4.1 Population 94
4.2 Gender 96
4.3 Agricultural Productivity 96
4.4 Land Tenure 97
4.5 Productivity and Population of
Livestock 98
4.6 Water Resources and Management 99
4.7 Climate Change 105
4.8 Drought 107
4.9 Forest Cover and Biomass 110
4.10 Soil Erosion and Land Degradation
112
4.11 Water Quality and Public Health
113
4.12 Fish Stocks
114
4.13 Wildlife Biodiversity
115
4.14 Economic Infrastructure
116
4.15 Industrial Base
118
4.16 Education Services
120
4.17 Health Services
121
4.18 Institutional Capacity
123
5 SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES

125
5.1 Background 125
5.2 The Potential for Rainfed Agriculture
125
5.3 The Potential for Irrigated Agriculture
127
5.4 Livestock and Rangelands 131
5.5 Other Natural Resources 132
5.6 Water Resources Development 137
5.7 Energy Resources 145
5.8 Industry and Tourism 146
5.9 Economic Infrastructure 147
5.10 Education
152
5.11 Health
156
6 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES

160
6.1 Introduction 160
6.2 Alternative Development Strategies
161
6.3 Development Zones 168
7 MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS 188
7.1 Introduction 188
7.2 Population Projections 189
7.3 Land Resources and Land Use 197
7.4 Water Resources 202
7.5 Economic Modelling Procedures 225
8 THE MASTER PLAN 242

8.1 Policy Framework 242
8.2 Main Objectives of the Master Plan
243
8.3 Development Indicators and Proposed
Targets 251
8.4 Planning Horizon 254
8.5 RVLB Integrated Development
Strategy 255
8.6 Selection of Appropriate Strategies for
Each Development Zone 265
8.7 Zonal Development Plans 268
8.8 Urban Development 307
8.9 Development Projects and
Programmes 317
8.10 RVLB Structure Plan
330
9 CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND
IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 332
9.1 Capital Investment and Financing 332
9.2 Implementation Schedule 337
10 INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANISATIONAL

FRAMEWORK 342
10.1 Introduction
342
10.2 Managing the Implementation of the
Master Plan 342
10.3 Extension and Support Services
347
10.4 Education
348
10.5 Health
349
10.6 Environmental Regulation
349
10.7 The RBO for RVLB
351
11 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE MASTER

PLAN 358
11.1 Employment
358
11.2 Labour Productivity
362
11.3 Regional Gross Domestic Product
364
11.4 Distributional Analysis and Poverty
Impact 372
11.5 Conclusions
377
12 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL

ASSESSMENT 380
12.1 Introduction
380
12.2 Strategic Environmental and Social
Assessment 381
12.3 Regional Environmental Management
Plan 407
REFERENCES 416
APPENDICES
Appendix A: Output from Economic Models
ANNEXES
ANNEX A: WATER RESOURCES AND MODELLING
ANNEX B: LAND RESOURCES AND EVALUATION
ANNEX C: ECONOMIC RESOURCE OPTIMISATION AND
ALLOCATION MODEL
ANNEX D: STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT PLAN
ANNEX E: LIST OF PHASE 1 FINAL REPORTS
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: Summary GIS-MIS data structure 15
Table 3.1: RVLB land cover in 2007 42
Table 3.2: Surface water resources of the RVLB 53
Table 3.3: Characteristics of Rift Valley lakes 54
Table 3.4: Selected water quality parameters of the RVLB lakes 55
Table 3.5: Estimated direct groundwater recharge and resource
availability 58
Table 3.6: Existing irrigation in the RVLB 65
Table 3.7: Livestock population of the RVLB 71
Table 4.1: Percentage growth rates by projection variant (%) 94
Table 4.2: Typical crop yields for different farm types 96
Table 4.3: Long term average lake level response to climate
change 106
Table 4.4: Lake level in 2035 in response to climate change 106
Table 4.5: Health facilities in Oromiya and SNNPRS (2005/06) 122
Table 4.6: Health professional by type in Oromiya and SNNPRS
(2005/06) 122
Table 5.1: Planned irrigation developments in the RVLB 129
Table 5.2: Water requirement for livestock in the RVLB 143
Table 5.3: Typical industrial water requirements in Africa 144
Table 5.4: Road projects in the RVLB 149
Table 5.5: Number of school places required 155
Table 5.6: Number of teacher recruits required 156
Table 5.7: Number of health professionals required 159
Table 5.8: Number of health facilities required 159
Table 6.1: Principal features of alternative development
strategies 166
Table 6.2: Tentative economic, social and environmental impacts
of alternative development strategies 167
Table 6.3: Physical characteristics of development zones 172
Table 6.4: Socioeconomic characteristics of development zones
174
Table 7.1: Medium variant CSA projection applied to weredas 189
Table 7.2: Projected annual rates of population growth: median
variant 190
Table 7.3: Sex and age structure of the population of the RVLB
191
Table 7.4: Expected fertility and migration growth rates (low CSA
projection) 192
Table 7.5: Re-estimated DZ rural and urban population by DZ:
based on CSA low variant 194
Table 7.6: Land suitability in the RVLB 198
Table 7.7: Cost of soil conservation by slope class 200
Table 7.8: Areas of cultivated land by slope class and calculation
of SWC costs 201
Table 7.9: Surface water resources of the RVLB 204
Table 7.10: Estimated water demand in the RVLB (Mm per 3
annum) 206
Table 7.11: Response of LTA lake level and area to planned
irrigation 208
Table 7.12: Lake level and area in 2035 for planned irrigation 209
Table 7.13: Surface water availability and use by DZ for irrigation
and domestic water supply 212
Table 7.14: LTA lake levels in response MP development 218
Table 7.15: Lake levels in 2035 in response to MP development 218
Table 7.16: Estimated groundwater recharge and resource
availability 221
Table 7.17: Selected scenarios by strategy 233
Table 8.1: Development indicators and proposed targets during
the master plan period 252
Table 8.2: Phasing of appropriate strategies for each
development zone 267
Table 8.3: Present level of urbanisation by development zone
(2005) 308
Table 8.4: Present size distribution of urban centres in RVLB
(2005) 308
Table 8.5: Spatial distribution of urban population by DZ (2005)
309
Table 8.6: Existing hierarchy of urban centres in RVLB (2005) 313
Table 8.7: Projected level of urbanisation by development zone
(2035) 315
Table 8.8: Projected size distribution of urban centres in RVLB
(2035) 316
Table 8.9: Future hierarchy of urban centres in RVLB (2035) 317
Table 8.10: Proposed projects by sector 319
Table 8.11: Project ranking criteria 325
Table 8.12: Project ranking 326
Table 9.1: Capital investment schedule by development sector 333
Table 9.2: Capital investment by development zone (Million ETB)
335
Table 11.1: Return to labour, ETB per annum per head of DZ
labour force 364
Table 11.2: Gini coefficient by DZ 373
Table 11.3: Food energy demand as % of production 376
Table 12.1: Comparison of development strategies with
sustainability criteria 384
Table 12.2: Environmental and social impact assessment of the
Master Plan 389
Table 12.3: Review of project profiles 399
Table 12.4: Regional environmental action plan 411
Table 12.5: Environmental and social monitoring of the Master Plan 414
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: RVLB administrative boundaries 3
Figure 3.1: Major land cover types in the RVLB 43
Figure 3.2: Land use in the RVLB 44
Figure 3.3: Estimated erosion potential 47
Figure 3.4: Annual average rainfall 52
Figure 3.5: Lake Ziway water levels (1974-2005) 66
Figure 3.6: Lake Abiyata water levels (1975-2005) 67
Figure 3.7: Forest cover map 79
Figure 4.1: Drought prone index 109
Figure 6.1: Development zones 171
Figure 7.1: Share of baseline water use by DZ 206
Figure 7.2: Water use within each DZ for MP proposed irrigation 1
& water supply for urban development (Mm3/Year) 213
Figure 7.3: Changes in lake levels for MP (without new irrigation)
216
Figure 7.4: Changes in lake levels for MP (with new irrigation) 217
Figure 7.5: Schematic showing model modules 226
Figure 7.6: Production types by land area over time 236
Figure 7.7: Crop and plantation area 2005 and projected to 2035
237
Figure 8.1: Projected growth of urban centres 314
Figure 8.2: Structural plan for the RVLB 331
Figure 9.1: Implementation schedule for Master Plan
interventions 341
Figure 11.1: Employment by sector RVLB baseline 2005
358
Figure 11.2: Employment by sector RVLB projected 2035
359
Figure 11.3: Return to labour in natural resources sectors
363
Figure 11.4: Return to labour in industrial sectors
363
Figure 11.5: RVLB RGDP 2005
365
Figure 11.6: RVLB projected RGDP 2035
365
Figure 11.7: Projected RGDP crops, RVLB, ETB million
367
Figure 11.8: Projected RGDP livestock, RVLB, ETB million
368
Figure 11.9: Projected RGDP forestry, RVLB ETB million
369
Figure 11.10: RGDP by DZ 2005 projected to 2035 (2005 ETB)
372
Figure 11.11: Projected food energy balance, RVLB 2005-2035
374
Figure 11.12: Projected rural food energy requirement, production
and trade 375
Figure 11.13: Intra RVLB food energy trade, 2005
376
Figure 11.14: Intra RVLB food energy trade, projected 2035
377
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AAETo annual average potential evapotranspiration
AAF annual average flow
AAP annual average rainfall
ABEC alternative basic education centre
ADLI Agricultural Development Led Industrialisation
AEZ agro-ecological zone
AFD Agence Française de Développement
AHP animal health posts
AREA subcatchment area
ASLNP Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park
BoARD Board of Agriculture and Rural Development
BOD biochemical oxygen demand
BoH Bureau of Health
BoWR Board of Water Resources
BPR business processing re-engineering
CBO community based organization
CCCM Canadian Climate Centre Model
CDR crude death rate
CFW cash for work
CHA Controlled Hunting Area
COD chemical oxygen demand
CSA Central Statistics Authority
CSE Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia
DAP Diammonium phosphate
DDPP Department of Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Agency
DEM digital elevation model
DM dry matter
DZ development zone
EA executing agency
EASE Ethiopia Agricultural Sample Enumeration
2001/02
EC electrical conductivity
EDA exploratory data analysis
EELPA Ethiopian Electricity, Light and Power Authority
EEPCO Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation
EHW environmental health worker
EIA environmental impact assessment
EIS environmental impact study
EMA Ethiopian Mapping Agency
EMP environmental management plan
EMS environmental management system
ENGDA Ethiopian National Groundwater Database
ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
EPC Environmental Protection Council
EPE Environmental Policy of Ethiopia
EPO Environmental Protection Office
ERA Ethiopian Roads Authority
EROAM Economic Resource Optimisation and Allocation
Model
ESDP Education Sector Development Programme (I &
II)
ETB Ethiopian ETB
ETC Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation
ETo reference crop (grass) evapotranspiration
ETP Education Training Policy
EU European Union
F fluoride
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation
FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
FSP Food Security Programme
FTC farmer training centre
GCM global circulation model
GDP gross domestic product
GFD3 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GIS geographical information system
GOE Government of Ethiopia
GSE Geological Survey of Ethiopia
GTZ German Technical Cooperation
GVP gross value of production
ha hectare
HadCM3 Hadley Centre Coupled Model
HEW health education worker
HH household
IEC information, education and communication
IMP Indicative Master Plan
INM integrated nutrient management
IWRM integrated water resources management
Kc crop coefficient
Kcal kilocalories
LTA long term average
m metre
MAI mean annual increment
mald metres above local datum
masl metres above sea level
MDG Millennium Development Goal
MERET Managing Environmental Resources to Enable
Transitions
MFI microfinance institution
mm millimetre
Mm3 million cubic metres
MME Ministry of Mines and Energy
MoARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
MoCB Ministry of Capacity Building
MoCT Ministry of Culture and Tourism
MoE Ministry of Education
MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
MoH Ministry of Health
MoNREP Ministry of Natural Resources Development and
Environmental Protection
MoTI Ministry of Trade and Industry
MoWR Ministry of Water Resources
MP Master Plan
MSE micro and small enterprise
MW megawatt
Na sodium
NCS National Conservation Strategy
NEDS National Economic Development Strategy
NER net enrollment ratio
NGO non governmental organisation
NMSA National Meteorological Services Agency
NSNP Nech Sar National Park
NTFP non timber forestry products
NVA net value added
NWP National Water Policy
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development
PASDEP Plan of Action for Sustainable Development to End
Poverty
pH a measure of acidity and alkalinity
PHAST Participatory Hygiene and Sanitation
Transformation
PJ peta Joule (a measure of energy)
PPP private public partnership; policies, plans and
programmes
RBC river basin council
RBO river basin organisation
REA regional environmental agency
RGDP regional (RVLB) gross domestic product
ROE rest of the economy
RSDP Road Sector Development Programme (I & II)
RTTP Rural Transport Travel Programme
RUSLE Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
RVLB Rift Valley Lakes Basin
SAR sodium absorption rate
SDPRP Sustainable Development for Poverty Reduction
Programme
SDR sediment delivery ratio
SEA strategic environmental (and social) assessment
SNNPRS Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’
Regional State
SWAP sector wide approach to planning
SWC soil and water conservation
t tonne
TAC technical advisory committees
TFR total fertility rate
TLU tropical livestock unit
ToR Terms of Reference
TVETS technical and vocational education and training
schools
U5MR infant and under-five child mortality rate
UEAP Universal Electricity Access Plan
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNICEF United Nations International Children’s
Fund
WB What’s Best! (software)
WBISPP Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning
Project
WEAP water evaluation and planning system
WFP World Food Programme
WSDP water supply development programme
WSS water supply and sanitation
WUA water users’ association
WWDSE Water Works Design Supervision Enterprise
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
S.1 Introduction
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) Integrated Resources

Development Master Plan Study Project was commissioned by
the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. It is been carried out by the
consortium of Halcrow Group Ltd. of the UK and Generation
Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants of Ethiopia.
The study began in December, 2006 and will continue through to
June 2009. The completion of the Master Plan marks the end of
Phase 2 of the study. This is the draft Master Plan Report.
The aims of the Master Plan Study are to:
 promote sustainable development in the RVLB, and to

 reduce poverty in the RVLB
To achieve these aims the objective of the study is to prepare a

Master Plan which:
 makes optimum use of all resources of the basin on an

integrated basis
 has the minimum adverse environmental impact
 is socially and politically acceptable
The basin covers a total area of approximately 53,000 km 2, with

its northern limit near to Addis Ababa, and running south to the
Kenyan border. Its eastern and western boundaries are formed
by the highest elevations of the highlands, creating an elevation
ranging between 500 masl in the valley bottom at the southern
end to 3000 masl at the highland margins. There are seven main
lakes, plus the former lake Chew Bahir in the south, which is
now mainly a salt pan.
Most lakes are terminal, meaning they have no surface water

outlet. This makes them highly vulnerable to changes in water
use regimes and environmentally sensitive. All but one of the
lakes are alkaline / saline and cannot be used for drinking or
irrigation without costly desalination. The total surface water
Doc No 4 Rev: 0 Date: 31 July 2008

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 i
resource (average annual lake inflow) of the RVLB is estimated
at about 5,300 Mm3/year , amounting to a current per capita
water availability of 597 m3. This is well below the threshold of
‘water scarcity’, defined as 1000m 3 per person per annum.
Because of population growth, by the end of the Master Plan
period per capita availability will decline further to 232m 3 per
person per annum which is a situation of extreme water scarcity.
Renewable groundwater resources are estimated at a further

1,080 Mm3/year and are the main source for domestic water
supply.
S.2 Approach to the Master Plan
S.2.1 A Different Approach
This Master Plan takes a different approach from previous

master plan studies because the RVLB is a very different basin
from the others. Many of the other basins have significant water
resources and therefore good potential for developing large
water using projects which make a major contribution to the
local economy. The RVLB does not have significant water
resources. This is the primary constraint to the development of
the RVLB, as was stated from the outset of this project within
the ToR, and the analysis of water resources in the study has
proved it. There are no large water resources projects feasible
in the RVLB and only very limited scope for further irrigation
development.
Agriculture continues to play a central role in the growth of the

economy over the Master Plan period. There is good scope for
increasing agricultural production but there are limits to the
rate of growth and the maximum level of productivity. The same
is true of the other natural resources of the basin; each will
contribute to the overall economy, but each is limited in its
potential. Therefore, the economic and social development of
the RVLB must be founded on a more diversified economy, which
essentially means an emphasis on the development of industry.
S.2.2 Stakeholder Consultation

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 ii
Stakeholder consultation has been a major component of the
project from the outset. There have been two formal workshops,
a very extensive Household Multisector Survey, structured and
unstructured interviews to define the main issues and to identify
projects for the Project Portfolio, a complete survey of ethnic
and religious groups through key informant interviews with
elders and religious leaders, consultations at national, regional,
zonal, wereda, kebele levels, as well as individuals of civil
society, private enterprises, etc. The stakeholder consultation
process has been a massive undertaking, ensuring awareness of
the situation in the RVLB and interacting with all parts of
society and all sectors of the economy to ensure the interests
and needs of the people are accounted for.
S.2.3 Technical Aspects and Modelling
The various analyses necessary for developing the Master Plan

have had a highly technical base. GIS was the information
foundation, with a large data base of information, producing a
series of maps. Satellite imagery from a series of years was used
to assess changes over time and to provide a base for mapping.
Other digital mapping from the Ethiopian Mapping Authority
was also used.
Several models have been constructed to analyse the basin.

There is a detailed surface water resources model and several
conceptual groundwater models which quantify the water
resources of the basin. The Economic Resource Optimisation
and Allocation Model (EROAM) was also developed; it contains
several submodels specific to population, energy, natural
resources, etc. In addition, a separate ‘Rest of the Economy’
(ROE) Model was built to work with the EROAM on non-sectoral
aspects of the economy, including the involvement of private and
public sector actors.
S.2.4 Focus on Key Issues
The Master Plan focuses on key issues. Perhaps the overarching

issue is that of conservation. The RVLB is endowed with natural
resources, but each is near the limit of its potential for
exploitation. Moving into the future in a sustainable way must
be based on conservation of natural resources in order that they
continue to contribute to the economy in perpetuity.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 iii
A second key issue is population. With the high growth rate in
the RVLB, population will double from the current 8.9 million to
19 million within 25 years, with consequential increased
demands for employment as well as water, land and other
natural resources. The excessive population growth rate is the
single biggest barrier to economic development and poverty
reduction.
The extremely low agricultural productivity and the constraints

to increasing it are also key issues. Linked with increasing
agricultural productivity is the need to develop markets for
agricultural products and to educate farmers in improved
agronomy and agricultural markets, to initiate a move away
from subsistence and toward more commercially oriented
farming. An integral part of the MP is the development of
industries processing agricultural products, providing markets
for agricultural goods and driving the growth of industry and
other associated commercial enterprises. However, the
agricultural processing industry can process only what is grown
and surplus to farmers’ household needs, setting a maximum on
the growth of agro-industries.
Livestock farming also causes a major problem. The very low

level of productivity and excessively large numbers of animals,
act as a barrier to economic growth and are damaging the
environment of the basin.
Land degradation is a critical issue across the basin. It is

principally driven by population growth and the consequent
pressure on land and on natural resources. Deforestation and
poor land husbandry contribute to the degradation.
A summary of key issues includes:
 Population Growth
 Issues of Gender
 Low Agricultural Productivity
 Land Tenure
 Low Productivity and Overpopulation of Livestock
 Limited Water Resources and Management
 Climate Change
 Drought Risk

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 iv
 Deforestation, Overgrazing and Declining Biomass
 Soil Erosion and Land Degradation
 Water Quality and Public Health
 Depletion of Fish Stocks
 Loss of Wildlife Biodiversity
 Poor Economic Infrastructure
 Weak Industrial Base
 Inadequate Education Services
 Inadequate Health Services
 Limited Institutional Capacity
S.2.5 The Potential for Irrigated Agriculture
Currently there is about 29,700 ha of smallholder and

commercial irrigated agriculture in the basin. This is a tiny
amount of development compared with rainfed agriculture, as is
reflected in its contribution to RGDP of less than 1%.
Land suitability studies in the RVLB indicate that there are:

 29,000 ha of land suitable for irrigation (S1) that is as yet
undeveloped
 150,000 ha of as yet undeveloped land of reasonable quality
for irrigation (S2)
However, water resources availability significantly constrains

the extent to which this land can be developed for irrigation.
Our studies show that if full sustainability criteria are applied,
and irrigation development is limited to what can be achieved
without damaging the lakes, then only some 18,350ha of
irrigated area could be added to the current total. This is
assumes a combination of conventional and modern, more
efficient irrigation technology; a somewhat greater area could
be sustainably developed with greater application of more
efficient irrigation systems. However, the costs associated with
this technology are significantly higher and may not be justified
by the additional returns that would be generated.
The decision on how much additional land to irrigate in the

RVLB is essentially a trade-off between the associated
contribution to RGDP, and preserving the lakes. The former is
really quite modest and unlikely to justify the negative impact
upon fisheries, tourism and many communities that would ensue
if the lakes are not adequately preserved. Such decisions need

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 v
to be set in context with other public sector investments;
applying limited financial resources to support education, for
example, will have a far greater impact on population control,
economic growth and poverty reduction than will investment in
irrigation schemes.
S.3 Development Strategies
The RVLB has considerable potential for the development of

natural resources but remains underdeveloped with the majority
of the population living below the poverty line. The economy is
dominated by smallholder agriculture which exhibits very low
productivity. There is only a small urban and industrial sector.
Human poverty indicators such as life expectancy, access to
health care, level of literacy/education, and standard of nutrition
are also poor. Many weredas are in food deficit and farmers are
unable to feed their families due to low levels of agricultural
productivity, rainfall variability, small holding size and poor soil
fertility. In some parts of the Basin (particularly in the drought
prone southern lowlands), food shortages are a frequent
occurrence and the population is dependent on emergency food
aid.
Four alternative development strategies have been formulated

which aim to make optimum use of all natural and human
resources on an integrated basis, with minimal adverse social
and environmental impact. The preferred strategies are also in
accordance with national, regional and sectoral policies, and
acceptable to regional governments, the general public and
other relevant organisations. Implementation capacity, as well
as the availability of human, financial and institutional
resources, was also taken into account.
The four development strategies and their respective objectives

are described below.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 vi
Strategy Reference Strategy outline
and title
A: Subsistence based Increase subsistence based
agricultural agricultural production (crops,
development livestock, fisheries and forestry)
B: Integrated socio- Increase crop and livestock

economic development production together with an
expansion of livelihood opportunities
in both the urban and non-farm rural
sectors
C: Market oriented Commercialisation of smallholder

economic development agriculture, together with a major
expansion of employment
opportunities in both the urban and
non-farm rural sectors
D: Accelerated Rapidly increase the industrial and

Industrial development commercial sectors, and transform
the agricultural sector towards
commercial smallholders and large
scale farms to meet the demands of a
growing urban population

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 vii
Strategy A: Subsistence B: Integrated C: Market D:
based socio- oriented Accelerated
agricultural economic economic industrial
development development development development
Strategy objectives
 accelerate economic growth 
 attain high levels of economic growth 
 increase household incomes and
reduce poverty in the rural areas 
 increase household incomes and
reduce poverty in both the urban and 
rural areas
 significantly increase household
incomes in both the urban and rural 
areas
 significantly increase household 
incomes in the urban areas
 improve food security   
 increase agricultural employment 
 increase urban and rural employment 
 increase urban and non-farm rural 
employment
 increase urban employment 
 expand agricultural surpluses for both

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 viii
domestic and export markets  
 accelerate the production of  
agricultural surpluses
 increase supply of fuel wood and  
timber

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 ix
S.4 Development Zones
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin is large in area and has a diversity of
conditions with respect to climate, topography, soils, natural
resources, land use, farming systems, population density, as well
as economic and social infrastructure. For planning purposes,
the variety of conditions in the Basin necessitates a breakdown
into broad development zones. Development zones (DZs), as
defined in the ToR, are “areas which are relatively homogeneous
with respect to their natural resources and socioeconomic
characteristics. They should be small enough in extent to
aggregate within administrative boundaries, and large enough
to represent coherent land use and social systems. They should
also exhibit homogeneity in terms of development issues,
potentials and constraints”.
Based on work already completed by the administration of

SNNPRS and adapted also for Oromiya, eight Development
Zones (DZs) were defined. The DZs take into account
administrative boundaries, agricultural systems, linkages with
development centres and other economic and socioeconomic
considerations. The eight DZs for the RVLB are:
DZ 1: North East Highland Zone

DZ 2: North Central Lowland Zone
DZ 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 4: Eastern Enset and Coffee Zone
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 6: Southern Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 7: Pastoral Zone: SNNPRS
DZ 8: Pastoral Zone: Oromiya
These are shown as a map in Figure 6.1 later in the document.
S.5 The Master Plan
S.5.1 Planning Horizon and Time Periods
The base year for Master Planning is 2005, as this is the year for
which most recent economic and social statistics are available.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 x
The plan is intended to have a period of 25 years. The time
frame has three phases as:
Short Term 5 years (years 1- 2010 –
5) 2014
Medium 10 years (years 6 – 2015 –
Term 15) 2024
Long Term 10 years (years 16 2025 –
– 25) 2034
Prior to 2010, the proposed Master Plan projects will be

reviewed and then incorporated into the regional programmes of
SNNPRS and Oromiya. The short term period (2010 - 2014) is
the first implementation phase comprising various studies and
the initiation of short and long term investment projects. During
this initial period, the proposed Master Plan interventions will
be prepared in greater detail prior to implementation.
Appropriate programmes and projects cannot realistically be
foreseen beyond a period of 25 years, so it is assumed that all
proposed Master Plan investments will made before 2035, i.e. in
the medium-term (2015 - 2024) and long-term (2025 - 2034).
S.5.2 Generalised Results
It is very difficult to summarise the results of the Master Plan as

its elements are extremely complex. However, the results of the
EROAM based Master Plan modelling can be generalised in a
matrix of the four Development Strategies by each of the eight
Development Zones, as the table below presents.
Phasing of Development Strategies

Strategy A:
Strategy B:
Subsistence Strategy C: Strategy D:
Integrated
Based Market Accelerated
DZ Socio-
Agricultura Oriented Industrial
economic
l Economic Developme
Developme
Developme Development nt
nt
nt
DZ1 Short Term Medium/Long
(Years 1 to 5) Term

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xi
(Years 6 to 25)
Medium/Long
Short Term
DZ2 Term
(Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Medium/Long
Short Term
DZ3 Term
(Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Short/Medium Long Term
DZ4 Term (Years 16 to
(Years 1 to 15) 25)
Short/Mediu
Long Term
m Term
DZ5 (Years 16 to
(Years 1 to
25)
15)
Medium/Long
Short Term
DZ6 Term
(Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Short/Mediu
Long Term
m Term
DZ7 (Years 16 to
(Years 1 to
25)
15)
Short/Mediu
Long Term
m Term
DZ8 (Years 16 to
(Years 1 to
25)
15)
S.5.3 Changes in Employment
There will be a structural shift in employment patterns within

the RVLB, with a major shift from the current 58% employment
in the natural resources sector down to about 38% of the work
force by 2035. Employment in industry will rise from the current
6% to about 24%.
Industrialisation will grow in both urban and rural areas.

Currently 20% of the industrial labour force is urban, but this
will fall to 12% by 2035 as rural industry grows. There must be
specific efforts on the part of government to develop industry.
The ADLI policy has a key role to play in economic development
and should be at centre stage in planning.
Employment in services will rise from 7% in 2005 to 29% in

2035, because growth in employment in large, medium and

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xii
small industry will create an incremental three jobs in the
service sector; this general relationship is observed in similar
developing economies.
The return to labour will grow only at an average of 2.2% over

the MP period. This is because labour productivity is very low
and the industries and services likely to be introduced into the
RVLB will not dramatically or rapidly improve labour
productivity. Farming and forestry will remain dominated by
manual labour. Industrial processes will remain basic. The very
large and rapidly growing available work force implies that
labour will remain abundant and therefore cheap, giving a
comparative advantage to industries which use predominantly
unskilled and semi-skilled labour.
S.5.4 Economic Growth
The economy of the RVLB will grow from the current ETB 10
billion per annum to ETB 35.5 billion (in 2005 prices), which is a
growth rate of only 3 to 4 percent per annum. Although lower
than one might hope, this is realistic given the constraints. The
greatest of these is the rapidly growing population which
reduces the potential for developing the agricultural surpluses
that are required to drive agricultural processing industries,
which in turn would drive other industries and services.
Inflexibility and lack of capacity in the livestock sector is also a

major brake on RVLB economic growth.
Woody biomass, which at present is mainly used for fuel, is a

sector that shows good potential for increased production in the
basin. Currently, much of the energy needs of the basin is
imported as fuel wood. There will be a reduction in demand per
capita (as adoption of energy efficient stoves grows and the
alternative sources of energy take hold) but the overall demand
will increase due to population growth. The demand will be met
through an increase in forest area by a factor of about 15.
There will be a shift in the shape of the economy over the

Master Plan period, as can be seen in the table below, which
shows the change in proportional contribution to the basin
RGDP from the base year of 2005 to the final year of 2035.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xiii
Sector Percentage of
RGDP
2005 2035
Health 0.5 0.9
Education 3.2 5.6
Crop Production 41.0 27.0
Livestock 19.6 6.9
Fisheries, Crocodiles and 0.7 0.5
Apiculture
Forestry 3.2 3.2
Small, Medium and Large 4.4 13.0
Industry
Utilities 2.0 4.3
Construction 4.9 5.3
Services (incl. Tourism) 15.8 29.0
Real Estate 4.8 4.2
Without the flexibility to increase production in the natural

resources sector, the accommodation of relatively large numbers
of the work force in the industrial sector will not occur. This is
because rural purchasing power will remain low, reducing
market opportunities for all industrial products (but particularly
processed food), and without industrial growth urban
purchasing power will also remain low. The result will be a
failure to move to even the modest levels of industrialisation
shown above. Therefore it is essential that the natural resources
sectors are given the necessary structural support (e.g. access
to quality crop inputs, marketing support, improved genetic
quality of livestock) to allow a reasonable level of flexibility to
meet present and future demand of industrial food processors;
at present they are traditionally managed, under-capitalised and
have low coefficients of production.
S.5.5 Variation by DZ
There is significant variation between the DZs in terms of

economic growth. DZ4 and DZ6 have the highest growth rates;
DZ4 because it has the greatest potential for industrial
development and a higher level of structural change in the
economy, while DZ6 is fuelled by agricultural expansion.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xiv
High rates of growth are also seen in DZ7 and DZ8, but this is
because they arise from such a very low base. The northern part
of the basin, encompassing DZs 1 to 4, have the highest RGDP
by area, but DZ3 and DZ4 are significantly poorer due to their
higher population density. The southern DZs assume an ever-
increasing share of basin RGDP as economic activities expand
into this region, in particular the opening of new agricultural
land.
S.5.6 Food security
By 2035, all DZs except for 4 and 5 can be considered food

secure, though food energy trade has actually increased
because diets will diversify somewhat, and not every zone can
grow all the diverse food crops it requires.
The implication of this is that the numbers of rural poor will

decline, not only as a percentage of the rural population but also
absolutely, to about half present numbers. However, although
both of these observations are optimistic, it is unrealistic to
think that the negative impact of droughts can be eliminated in
the planning period. Drought may be the biggest single threat to
development.
Changes in the farming system (in terms of production systems

used) are both desirable and necessary. Projected crop RGDP by
2035 could be reduced by as much as 5 to 7% if the proportion
of subsistence farms on holdings less than 1 hectare continues
to rise. Food security would also suffer.
It has been demonstrated that the RVLB does have the capacity
to be a food secure region. This is vital for economic growth in
the rest of the RVLB economy. The industrial and service sectors
in RVLB need this food production capacity to be realised to
meet future food service demand. If the natural resource sector
fails to do this, then food service producers will locate to regions
outside RVLB where the natural resources economy generates a
more reliable supply of raw material. RVLB will then have to
import processed food demand, forego value added and
employment opportunities in food processing and have an

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xv
insecure natural resources economy. This is an extremely
undesirable out-come.
S.5.7 General Conclusion to the Impact of the Master Plan
The conclusion of the above discussion is that there is potential

for economic development of the RVLB, initially based on
natural resources (mainly agriculture) but with an increasing
contribution from industry and services. However, this will not
happen on its own. Significant intervention is required from
national and regional governments to support the necessary
growth in agricultural productivity, reduction in livestock
numbers, reduction in population growth rates and other areas.
It is also necessary to make major investments in public
infrastructure, notably water supply and sanitation, roads and
other forms of transport, communications, education, health
care, natural resources management, regulation and
enforcement and environmental protection.
The capacity of the natural resources economy in RVLB is

sufficient (with the required level of public investment) to fuel
the basin economy (with the notable exception of livestock
production, which remains a serious problem). Aiming to
achieve complementary development between the natural
resources sector and the rest of the economy is the least risk
route to economic development, as it will benefit both rural and
urban populations and encourage regional identity.
S.6 The Cost of the Master Plan
The total capital investment required for the implementation of

Master Plan interventions is estimated at ETB 29.45 billion (US$
3.10 billion) in 2008 prices. Over a 25 year period, average
capital requirements would therefore be about ETB 1.17 billion
per annum (US$ 124 million per annum). However, a high
proportion (68%) of the investment would be needed in the
short term (ETB 7.12 billion) and medium term (ETB 13.01
billion) due to the substantial amounts of capital required for
the infrastructure projects, particularly water supply, urban
sanitation, road development, electricity and soil/water
conservation, as well as the education and health programmes.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xvi
The following table shows the breakdown of estimated
expenditures by economic sector. Water resources and economic
infrastructure (roads, communications, energy, etc.) are by far
the largest cost sectors, together accounting for over 60% of the
total Master Plan cost. Within water resources, water supply
and sanitation together account for more than one quarter of
the total cost of master plan implementation. Industry and
commerce appear to be very low in their overall costs, but this is
because most expenditure for this is from the private sector and
the table relates public sector costs only.
A second table, below, shows the breakdown by Development

Zone (DZ). Higher costs for water resources are seen in DZ3
and DZ4, reflecting the increases in urban populations as these
are the DZs with the greater potential for industrial and urban
expansion. DZ2 and DZ6 have higher expenditures for irrigation,
as these have greater potential for irrigation development.
Overall, DZ3, DZ4 and DZ6 have the highest expenditures,

mainly from water supply and sanitation, economic
infrastructure and irrigation development.
The financing of the Master Plan projects and programmes will

be based on three main sources: (i) external donors
(multilateral, bilateral and NGOs), (ii) federal and regional
governments, and (iii) private investment (both domestic and
international). External donor finance will be critical if the levels
of investment required for the implementation of the Master
Plan are to be realised, particularly with respect to irrigation,
soil and water conservation, water supply, sanitation, road
infrastructure, education facilities and health services.
Continuing dialogue with external donors should also be
maintained throughout the Master Plan period to ensure that
the financing is in line with donors’ interests as well as the
objectives and strategies of the Basin development plan.
Development Sector Capital Cost (Million ETB) %

Short Medium Long Total Total
Term Term Term Cost
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 -
2014) 2024) 2034)
A. Water Resources

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xvii
Term Term Term Cost
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 -
2014) 2024) 2034)
Irrigation 68.82 848.94 402.05 1,319.81 4.5%
Water Supply (urban &
917.94 1,617.76 1,477.35 4,013.05 13.6%
rural)
Urban Sanitation 729.81 1,751.55 1,167.69 3,649.05 12.4%
Hydrology/Groundwater
105.00 105.00 0.4%
Monitoring
Water Quality Monitoring 10.00 10.00 0.0%
sub-total 1,831.57 4,218.25 3,047.09 9,096.91 30.9%
B. Natural Resources
Crop Production 861.11 574.07 1,435.18 4.9%
Soil and Water Conservation 734.03 1,174.45 1,027.64 2,936.12 10.0%
Livestock Development 570.90 467.10 1,038.00 3.5%
Forestry 342.00 228.00 570.00 1.9%
Fisheries 114.00 76.00 190.00 0.6%
Apiculture 50.40 33.60 84.00 0.3%
Wildlife 47.50 47.50 95.00 0.3%
Mineral Resources 36.00 36.00 0.1%
sub-total 2755.94 2600.72 1027.64 6384.30 21.7%
C. Energy Resources
Alternative Energy Sources 57.50 30.00 87.50 0.3%
Energy Conservation 20.00 10.00 30.00 0.1%
Sub-total 77.50 40.00 117.50 0.4%
D. Industry and
Commerce
Industrial Support Services 250.00 250.00 500.00 1.7%
Tourism Support 12.00 12.00 0.0%
sub-total 262.00 250.00 512.00 1.7%
E. Economic
Infrastructure
Road Development 949.96 1,654.12 872.11 3,476.19 11.8%
Market Upgrading 142.49 248.12 130.82 521.43 1.8%
Electricity 345.11 1,736.62 1,798.02 3,879.75 13.2%
Telecommunications 138.04 694.65 719.21 1,551.90 5.3%
sub-total 1,575.60 4,333.51 3,520.16 9,429.27 32.0%
F. Education and Health
Education Facilities 204.72 282.93 390.78 878.43 3.0%
Health Facilities 96.87 545.96 311.56 954.39 3.2%
Training (education, health,
315.46 734.15 1,026.62 2,076.23 7.1%
admin)
sub-total 617.05 1,563.04 1,728.96 3,909.05 13.3%

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xviii
Term Term Term Cost
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 -
2014) 2024) 2034)
29,449.0
Total 7,119.66 13,005.52 9,323.85 100.0%
3
Development Capital Investment by Development Zone (Million ETB)
Sector DZ 1 DZ 2 DZ 3 DZ 4 DZ DZ 6 DZ 7 DZ Total
5 8
A. Water Resources
587.8 121.2 604.5 0.00 0.00 1,319.
Irrigation 0.00 6.14 0.00
7 1 9 81
Water Supply (urban & 348.2 483.9 1,172. 1,217. 142.5 560.8 4,013.
69.78 17.11
rural) 6 5 66 91 5 4 05
425.1 541.5 1,190. 1,031. 403.6 3,649.
Urban Sanitation 10.13 32.99 14.28
6 8 02 20 8 05
Hydrology/G’water
8.13 15.14 18.01 9.76 7.03 25.37 10.33 11.23 105.00
Monitoring
Water Quality
0.77 1.44 1.71 0.93 0.67 2.42 0.98 1.07 10.00
Monitoring
782.3 1,629. 2,388. 2,381. 160.3 1,596. 9,096.
sub-total 114.09 43.69
3 98 54 01 8 90 91
148.6 242.3 552.2 201.5 204.2 1,435.
Crop Production 52.93 18.00 15.12
7 6 2 9 9 18
Soil and Water 368.2 309.3 608.5 431.9 1020. 2,936.
67.47 55.77 74.08
Conservation 8 9 8 6 60 12
150.9 136.7 280.7 167.6 145.3 1,038.
Livestock Development 63.56 68.49 24.43
8 4 3 9 9 00
137.7
Forestry 44.15 82.18 97.75 53.00 38.15 56.09 60.94 570.00
4
116.6
Fisheries 0.56 42.29 16.43 7.73 4.04 1.06 1.28 190.00
2
Apiculture 6.51 12.11 14.41 7.81 5.62 20.30 8.27 8.98 84.00
Wildlife 3.80 35.63 5.70 6.65 0.48 28.50 7.13 7.13 95.00
Mineral Resources 36.00 36.00
758.9 860.6 1,575. 876.4 232.2 1,673. 191.9 6,384.
sub-total 214.79
5 9 82 2 5 43 6 30
C. Energy Resources
Alternative Energy
7.59 10.55 25.57 26.56 3.11 12.23 1.52 0.37 87.50
Sources
Energy Conservation 3.50 4.45 9.78 8.48 0.08 3.32 0.27 0.12 30.00
Sub-total 11.09 15.00 35.35 35.03 3.19 15.55 1.79 0.49 117.50
D. Industry and
Commerce

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xix
Term Term Term Cost
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 -
2014) 2024) 2034)
Industrial Support 163.0 141.3
58.26 74.21 1.39 55.31 4.52 1.96 500.00
Services 6 0
Tourism Support 2.40 4.80 0 2.40 0 2.40 0 0 12.00
163.0 143.7
sub-total 60.66 79.01 1.39 57.71 4.52 1.96 512.00
6 0
E. Economic
Infrastructure
319.8 347.6 768.2 597.9 114.7 789.1 173.8 3,476.
Road Development 365.00
1 2 4 0 1 0 1 19
152.3 158.2
Market Upgrading 45.25 62.88 18.52 72.87 9.07 2.22 521.43
7 5
452.0 575.8 1265. 1096. 429.2 3,879.
Electricity 10.77 35.07 15.19
4 2 25 39 0 75
134.6 187.1 453.4 470.9 216.8 1,551.
Telecommunications 55.13 26.99 6.62
8 5 8 8 8 90
951.7 1173. 2639. 2323. 199.1 1508. 197.8 9,429.
sub-total 436.13
8 47 34 52 4 05 4 27
F. Education and
Health
105.9 256.6 266.5 122.7
Education Facilities 76.23 31.20 15.27 3.75 878.43
3 9 9 6
115.0 278.8 289.6 133.3
Health Facilities 82.82 33.90 16.60 4.07 954.39
9 8 4 8
Training (educ., health, 180.1 250.3 606.7 630.1 290.1 2,076.
73.75 36.10 8.85
admin) 8 8 0 1 6 23
339.2 471.4 1142. 1186. 138.8 546.3 3909.0
sub-total 67.97 16.67
3 0 27 34 6 0 5
2,904. 4,229. 7,944. 6,946. 735.2 5,397. 452.6 29,449
Total 839.29
04 56 38 02 0 95 0 .0
S.7 Institutional Considerations
Public investment for implementing the Master Plan and for the
economic development of the RVLB is estimated at ETB 29.45
billion over the 25 years of the Master Plan period. This study
has recommended that implementation be carried out through
the existing administrative structure, but consideration needs to
be given to implementation capacity, especially within the

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xx
regions. Many of the existing services are poorly operated and
directed, and underfunded. The expansion needed to manage
the increased load of projects will put a strain on government
services in all areas and will need advanced planning to provide
additional education and training, expansion and redirection of
services, improvement of existing services, etc.
Much of the expenditure is in water supply and sanitation, roads

and communication and energy. These are therefore areas
where initial efforts in capacity building should be directed. It
will be necessary to carry out a detailed study of each of the
institutions responsible for these sectors to determine precisely
what is needed.
Another area which is of great importance for capacity building

is agricultural extension. Agricultural productivity is extremely
low across the basin, due mostly to farmers’ poor understanding
of
 good agronomic practice

 agricultural markets and how farmers should respond to
them
 the importance of soil and water conservation.
Livestock has also been raised as a particular problem

constraining economic development in the basin.
Precise requirements for the capacity building programme will

be established during its inception phase, when MP is
implemented.
Water resources management is a key element of the

development of the basin. River Basin Organisations are now
established in law in Ethiopia, with a department within MoWR
to facilitate RBOs. The importance of proper management and
allocation of water resources in the RVLB mean that early
establishment of an RBO there is crucial.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xxi
S.8 Environmental and Social Implications
A Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Master Plan has

been carried out. In general its conclusions are that most of the
interventions do not have high environmental risks. Much of the
Master Plan implementation entails conservation, providing
improved access to water and sanitation and other aspects,
which are fairly positive in environmental and social terms. The
adverse impacts, from road building, irrigation development, etc
are relatively small in the overall picture.
Capacity building is also needed in this sector, at all levels.

Conservation is a foundation of the economic development of
the RVLB, good environmental planning, management and
regulations are to its successful delivery.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 xxii
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Master Plan Study Project
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) Integrated Resources

Development Master Plan Study Project was commissioned by
the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. It is been carried out by the
joint venture of Halcrow Group Ltd. of the UK and Generation
Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants of Ethiopia.
The project began in December 2006 and will be completed in

August 2009. There are three Phases to the RVLB Integrated
Resources Development Master Plan Study Project:
 Phase 1, which is complete had a duration of 11 months. It

included the preparation of the Inception Report which was
submitted in March, 2007 and culminated in a set of Sector
Assessment Reports and an Indicative Master Plan Report
which included a Project Portfolio of potential projects
 Phase 2, which has been of 10 months’ duration and has the
main outputs of the Master Plan itself as well as six projects
selected from the Project Portfolio assessed at prefeasibility
level.
These six prefeasibility studies comprise:
(i) Sego irrigation and drainage project

(ii) Lower Segen irrigation, drainage and multi-purpose
project
(iii) Adami Tulu and its environs water supply and sanitation
project
(iv) Yirga Alem and its environs water supply and sanitation
project
(v) Integrated watershed management of Lake Awasa Sub-
basin
(vi) Integrated watershed management of Western Lake
Ziway Sub-basin.

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan_3107 1
These are being submitted simultaneously with this Master
Plan document.
 Phase 3, which will be of 11 months’ duration, will produce

feasibility studies for three projects selected from the six
studied in Phase 2.
The main output of the project is the Master Plan itself, which
will:
 include all potential development sectors covering

agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forestry, energy, tourism,
minerals and other industries, plus water resources and land
resources
 result in a Master Plan phased over a 25 year planning
horizon with longer term activities as necessary (with our
base year set at 2005 and using 5 year planning blocks, it is
appropriate to use 2035 as the end year)
 a first five year development plan with immediate priority
activities
 include prefeasibility and feasibility level studies to identify
priority projects or programmes for implementation.
The aims of the Master Plan Study are to:
 promote sustainable development in the RVLB, and to

 Reduce poverty in the RVLB.
To achieve these aims the objective of the study is to prepare a

Master Plan which:
 makes optimum use of all resources of the basin on an

integrated basis
 has the minimum adverse environmental impact
 is socially and politically acceptable.
This document is the Draft Master Plan. It is submitted as part

of Phase 2 of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) Integrated
Resources Development Master Plan Study Project. The RVLB
and its administrative areas are shown on Figure 1.1.

1.2 Earlier Studies in the RVLB
The RVLB was first studied in a comprehensive manner in 1972

by the Land Resources Division of the Ministry of Overseas
Development, UK. This was followed by studies principally for
development projects such as the development of the soda ash
extraction plant at Lake Abiyata, and irrigation development
schemes at Ziway-Meki, and on the Gelana, Weito and Segen
Rivers.
Various studies have been carried out either in, or pertinent to,
the RVLB. These are too numerous to list here, but they have
been presented and discussed in great detail in the various
Sector Assessment Reports, listed in Section 1.3 below.
The single most important earlier study of the RVLB for the
current project was the 1992 Reconnaissance Master Plan for
the Rift Valley Lakes Basin. This was a broad, multi-sectoral
study, similar in nature to, but in less depth than, the current
RVLB Study. The 1992 work provided a valuable starting point,
having described in detail the physical attributes of the basin
and putting forward a wide range of ideas, recommendations
and proposals for development programmes and projects.

Figure INTRODUCTION.1: RVLB administrative
boundaries

During Phase 1 of the current study, the 1992 Reconnaissance
Master Plan was assessed in considerable detail. It put forward
a range of projects which were re-evaluated during Phase 1 as
to their continuing validity after more than 15 years. This is
discussed in detail in Phase 1, Part IA, Main Report and
Indicative Master Plan. The Project Portfolio associated with the
current Master Plan (submitted as part of the Phase 1 reports)
has elements which are based on the 1992 study and list of
projects.
1.3 Phase 1 Reporting
Phase 1 of the RVLB project provided the base information for

this Master Plan (MP). It consisted of the preparation of a set of
Sector Assessment Reports covering each of the economic
sectors relevant to the RVLB, plus non-economic areas of
environment, socioeconomics, etc., and reporting on various
methodologies. It also consisted of an Indicative Master Plan
(IMP) and Project Portfolio to drive discussion on the direction
and main issues for the Master Plan and indicate potential
projects which would form part of the Master Plan
implementation.
The Phase 1 Report was presented in two Parts. Part IA

consisted of the Main Report and Indicative Master Plan, and
Part IB, the Project Portfolio. A list of the many stakeholders
involved in Phase 1 was also provided as a General Appendix to
Part I. Part II, the Sector Assessments, consisted of eight
Volumes with a total of 37 Annexes. Each Annex is a stand alone
document covering a particular economic sector or important
aspect of the Master Plan. The Phase 1 Final Reports are listed
in Annex E.
The draft Phase 1 Reports were submitted between August and

October, 2007. They were reviewed by a variety of stakeholders
and discussed at the Stakeholder Workshop on 19th to 21st
November, 2007. Comments on the reports were collated from
the stakeholders by the MoWR project coordination office and
the Phase 1 Reports finalised.

These documents provide all the background information on
their respective sectors of the basin and an assessment of their
current status. They form the basis of the Master Plan, giving an
evaluation of the current economic, socioeconomic and
environmental state of the RVLB.
Each Sector Assessment Report also contains a section called

Goals, Opportunities and Constraints for the sector. It outlines
what the goals should be for the sector – what should the
targets for achievement be? It also highlights the opportunities
in each sector – what are the strengths in the sector on which
growth can be built? It also identifies the constraints – what
impedes growth that needs to be changed or removed as
barriers if the targets are to be met? Finally, these sections
identify what key interventions need to be made to achieve the
goals. These sections are also summarised in the Phase 1
Indicative Master Plan report (Phase 1 Final Report, Part IA,
Main Volume and Indicative Master Plan). Readers are invited to
read the pertinent Sector Assessment Reports (SAR) or the IMP
volume when reading this MP volume as the SAR and IMP are
not repeated in this MP volume in their entirety, but are
discussed both implicitly and explicitly in the MP where
appropriate.
1.4 Structure of the Master Plan Report
This Master Plan document is set up to flow from basic

descriptive information, through a summary of the current
situation, to a set of development strategy options and into the
master plan itself.
Following this introductory section is a short discussion on the

objectives and general approach to the Master Plan (Section 2).
This section briefly summarises the data collection activities and
how these have been processed into the knowledge base for
Master Plan formulation. It presents the basics of the simulation
and optimisation modelling which quantifies the needs and
impacts of the Master Plan. This is followed by a background
discussion, which is a synopsis of the natural resources of the
RVLB, the main economic sectors, the socioeconomic situation,
etc (Section 3).

Key development issues in the RVLB are then presented (Section
4). These come from the Phase 1 IMP reconfigured through our
subsequent discussions with the stakeholders. The development
opportunities are presented by sector in Section 5, in which we
outline the aspects of each sector that can be built upon to lead
development toward achieving the targets. Potential
development strategies are then discussed in Section 6, which
lays out the way forward according to four separate strategies
which may be followed within the Master Plan.
Sections 3 to 6 outline the current situation and the way

forward in the MP. The analysis of the MP is presented in
Section 7 and is mainly based on the three primary models of
land resources, water resources and the Economic Resource
Optimisation and Allocation Model (EROAM).
The Master Plan itself is set out in Section 8, along with

discussions on the policy framework, selection of the preferred
development strategy, aspects specific to development zones,
development centres and specific development projects and
programmes. The implementation schedule and capital
investment programme is presented next (Section 9), including
a first, five year development plan and aspects of capital
investment and financing. In Section 10 we discuss the
institutional framework, and look particularly at the regional
administration and other considerations such as water resources
management, extension and support services and a proposed
implementation framework for the MP.
The concluding Sections 10 and 11 respectively contain the

economic assessment of the MP and a strategic environmental
assessment and social assessment of the Master Plan.
Annexes associated with the Master Plan volume are as follows:
Annex A: Water Resources and Modelling

Annex B: Land Resources and Evaluation
Annex C: Economic Resource Optimisation and Allocation
Model
Annex D: Strategic Environment Assessment and Regional
Environmental Management Plan

Annex E: List of RVLB Phase 1 Final Reports.

2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH
2.1 Study Objectives
The objective of this study is to prepare a Master Plan for the

development of the RVLB which will contribute to the
sustainable development and reduction of poverty in the basin
and which makes optimum use of all natural, physical, human
and animal resources, with the minimum possible adverse
environmental impacts, both at regional and national levels.
The Master Plan proposes alternative strategies for sustainable

and integrated natural resources development in the RVLB
taking into account the national and regional goals and
priorities. It also identifies and formulates new programmes and
projects for the implementation of the new strategy.
Among the specific objectives of the Master Plan Study, listed

below, are tasks which have been largely completed during
Phase 1 and are included in the Phase 1 reporting, which are
identified as such.
 Provide an inventory of the natural and human resources of

the basin, including the ecosystem of the lakes which will
form the information base for the preparation of the RVLB
Integrated Resources Development Master Plan. The
inventory also acts as the baseline for future developmental
and environmental monitoring. This was completed in Phase
1.
 Define the existing and potential systems of exploitation and
regeneration covering principal resources of land, vegetation
and water with a view to determining the overall impacts of
particular patterns of use. This was completed in Phase 1.
 Plan and develop cross-sectoral linkages towards sustainable
development, management, administration, and utilisation of
natural resources. Many of these have been identified during
Phase 1 but much of the cross-sectoral linkages are defined
through the EROAM as part of the MP analysis.
 Prepare prioritised development projects in key sectors with
particular emphasis on multipurpose water resources

development, sectoral development, and infrastructure and
support development, for subsequent implementation by
appropriate agencies. The Project Portfolio was completed in
Phase 1. The Portfolio is discussed in Section 8.6.
 Identify implementation mechanisms which ensure
appropriate regional and local participation in the
preparation and execution of the Master Plan and allow for
regular updating and extension of the planning horizon in
the future. This is presented in Section 10.
 Develop a policy framework for the development of RVLB
which is multisectoral in scope, reflecting both national and
regional perspectives, and acknowledging the roles of public
and private investment. This is presented in Section 8.
 Prepare water resource development projects at
prefeasibility (six during Phase 2) and feasibility (three
during Phase 3) levels. The six were selected at the end of
Phase 1, in November 2007. They include: Integrated
Watershed Management of Western Ziway Sub-basin,
Integrated Watershed Management of Lake Awasa Sub-
basin, Yirga Alem and Environs Water Supply Project, Adami
Tulu and Environs Water Supply Project, Sego Irrigation and
Multi-purpose Project, Lower Segen Irrigation and Multi-
purpose Project. These prefeasibility projects are completed
along with the Master Plan and submitted as separate
reports.
 Establish a sustainable pattern of surface water and
groundwater allocation, which is appropriate to the
development needs of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin. This was
done as part of the MP assessment, though groundwater
allocation has not been fully possible due to the lack of data
and the consequent impossibility in assessing the
groundwater resource. Water resources and allocation are
discussed in Sections 5.4 and 7.4, and the analysis in detail
in Annex A.
 Develop a strategy for catchment/watershed management
which preserves and protects the lakes’ sub-basins and
minimises erosion and sedimentation. This is also part of the
MP analysis, and discussed in Section 10 of this report.
 Develop a physical plan (land use zoning and infrastructure
development) for the RVLB which will serve as a framework
for the subsequent development of detailed plans by the

Regional States (Oromiya RS and SNNPRS). This is part of
the MP and discussed in Section 9.
 Prepare phased programmes of proposals at the level of
public (national and regional) and private investment. This is
part of the MP and discussed in Section 9.
The Master Plan considers the integration of different sectors of

the socioeconomy and clearly relates strategies, strategic
actions and projects and programmes. The study has been
conducted bearing in mind the need for sustainable
development plus the fact that water availability is one of the
primary limiting factors for development of the basin.
A primary consideration during the study is the continuous

participation of stakeholders through the use of participatory
methods. This has been done in various ways including
consultations, workshops and surveys. As part of the
participative process, seminars are organised at the end of each
phase of the study to provide feedback and to enable
stakeholders to verify that their concerns have been effectively
incorporated in the study results.
Throughout the three study phases, particular attention is being

given to crosscutting issues. They include the following, which is
not an exhaustive list:
 poverty reduction
 economic diversification
 effective management of natural resources
 gender issues, especially improving the socioeconomic
condition of women and youth
 the reversal of environmental degradation and minimising
future environmental impacts
 land tenure issues
 management and institutional issues, including definition of
the roles of government and the private sector
The study takes into account the need for the active involvement
of NGOs, CBOs and the private sector in the implementation of
the potential projects. The organisation and management
structure for the potential projects has been designed in line

with government’s decentralisation policy. Potential projects are
fully integrated with other programmes in the basin and are
complementary to those of the development agencies and
bilateral donors.
2.2 Integrated Development Planning
2.2.1 Conceptual Differences between River Basin and Regional

Planning
River basin planning focuses on the development of water, land
and associated resources within the hydrological boundaries of
the Basin. In comparison, regional planning is geared towards
the broader development of all physical and human resources
within a specific area or region. For regional planning,
hydrological boundaries are not meaningful as they have no
administrative status and do not properly reflect the areas of
economic growth and diversity needed for spatial planning. As
the Rift Valley Lakes Basin intersects the administrative
boundaries of the regional states of Oromiya and SNNPRS, the
existing physical and human resources, as well as development
priorities, of the regional states need to be taken into account in
the Master Plan.
The main features of river basin planning and regional planning

are described below.
The rationale for choosing a river basin as the unit for planning
is primarily to optimise the use of the water resources within
the basin where water is a regarded as a major factor limiting
development, as it is in the RVLB. River basin planning
therefore focuses on water resource development, i.e.
hydropower, irrigation, and industrial/domestic water supply.
Water use and allocation thus provides the basis of a river basin
plan, but aspects of overall regional development are included
where relevant economic sectors are directly linked to water
resource development, e.g. agriculture, natural resources and
energy. River basin plans are usually long term because the
major investments often require a long implementation period.
A river basin may, however, not be an appropriate framework for

the implementation of regional development plans, as there is

no administrative structure. For the execution of river basin
plans, special institutional arrangements will therefore have
been made. This could include the establishment of a river basin
development agency responsible for the planning and
coordination of existing administrative units within the basin.
Regional planning is usually based on administrative areas as it

takes into account the political and administrative structures
required for project implementation. Regional plans are a key
element of the national planning hierarchy which comprises
macro-economic planning, sectoral and regional planning.
Regional planning does not necessarily consider water, or any
other resource, as the major limiting factor for development. It
primary aim is to integrate all the economic and social sectors
which are relevant to a particular region into a coherent spatial
development framework. Identifying regional development
opportunities and constraints for a wide range of sectors
therefore provides the basis for an integrated regional
development plan.
2.2.2 The RVLB Master Plan

The Master Plan prepared for the Rift Valley Lakes Basin
contains elements of both river basin planning and regional
planning. However, certain adaptations had to be made to
reconcile the conceptual differences between the two
approaches, particularly with respect to the identification of
development zones and the preparation of a structure plan for
the Basin.
Water is one of the factors limiting development in the Rift

Valley Lakes Basin area, so due attention is given to water
resources and related issues in the Master Plan. However, the
emphasis with regard to water resources is on conservation and
sustainability, rather than development in itself. Also, other
natural resources in the Basin are limited - for example, good
agricultural land, forage and forest resources. The development
of all resources is the basis for sound regional planning required
to meet the objectives of poverty reduction and sustainable
development. An integrated approach to basin planning is
therefore necessary.

Therefore, water resources are mostly a constraint to
development in this Master Plan, rather than a development
target. There is some potential for irrigation development, but
this is limited. Within this Master Plan, the regional planning
framework facilitates wider socioeconomic development.
Regional planning also permits a full understanding of the
interaction between and the integration of the various sectors
and puts forward other sector interventions supporting the
growth of the Basin’s economy.
2.3 Planning Concepts and Methodology
Planning concepts change over time as new ideas emerge, so

there is no definitive approach to preparing master plans. For
example, planning within a centrally organised economy is very
different from planning in a market economy. The planning
approach also varies according to the level of development and
the dynamic nature of the economy.
A master plan essentially seeks to link the current situation to

desired future situations through identifying appropriate
development strategies, programmes and projects to achieve
specific objectives and targets. The main stages of the master
planning process are outlined below:
 Collection of data to obtain a good understanding of the

physical and socioeconomic characteristics of the Basin
through a detailed description and analysis of the present
situation which includes both the static and dynamic trends.
This is the starting point of the Master Plan in which
baseline information is provided and realistic development
targets are defined.
 On the basis of relevant data covering natural, physical and
human resources, the potential for (and constraints to) the
development of the Basin’s resources is assessed. This
assessment leads to the identification of development
opportunities and project ideas for each development sector.
A comprehensive portfolio of specific programmes and
projects is subsequently compiled in close consultation with
a range of stakeholders at all levels (i.e. national, regional

and wereda). These projects are then considered for
inclusion in the Master Plan.
 Conceptual and mathematical models, including an economic
resource optimisation and allocation model, are employed to:
(i) optimise the use of the Basin’s natural, physical and
human resources, (ii) analyse alternative development
scenarios, and (iii) determine suitable interventions aimed at
addressing the key socioeconomic problems (e.g. food
deficits, high poverty incidence and depletion of natural
resources) and development constraints (e.g. poor economic
infrastructure and public services).
 Identification of the appropriate development strategies to
meet the overall development objectives is the foundation of
the Master Plan. Strategies are also formulated for pre-
defined development zones in order to focus interventions on
the key economic sectors within each zone. Furthermore,
development strategies are prepared in an integrated
manner in order to strengthen the linkages and
complementarities between the different economic sectors.
 An overall structure plan for the Basin, setting out the
preferred land use pattern, future urban hierarchy and
infrastructure development within the Basin, is then
prepared. In addition, an implementation schedule for the
various development interventions, together with estimates
of the public investment required during each phase of the
Master Plan period, is derived.
 An appropriate institutional and organisational framework to
implement the Master Plan is then formulated. This includes:
(i) identification of appropriate implementing agencies; (ii)
definition of the roles and responsibilities of the agencies;
and (iii) key linkages and arrangements for coordination,
consultation and cooperation with other relevant
organisations.
 Assessment of the economic, social and environmental
implications of the Master Plan’s programmes and projects,
as well as the identification of suitable mitigation measures
for potential adverse consequences, is also undertaken.
 In addition, monitoring and evaluation of Master Plan
interventions to determine the progress of activities, as well
as to assess whether the specific objectives and outputs are
being achieved, is critical to successful implementation of
the Master Plan. It is also important that the Master Plan is

a dynamic framework which is open to modification and
amendment throughout its life.
2.4 Stakeholder Consultation
Stakeholder consultation has been a major component of the

project from the outset. There have been two formal workshops,
following the Inception Report in April 2007, and following the
Draft Phase 1 Reports in November 2007. In order to have as
much feedback as possible on the Master Plan in its early
stages, an Indicative Master Plan (IMP) report was prepared as
part of the Phase 1 Reports. The IMP was also presented in
outline at the Stakeholder Workshop in November to ensure
maximum coverage and discussion.
Each of our Phase 1 Sector Assessment Reports contains a

section on Goals, Opportunities, Constraints and Development
Interventions. These were developed with the stakeholder
experts in the various fields. Among the development
interventions were specific projects which were considered
priorities in developing the potential of each sector. Together,
these became the Project Portfolio which was prepared during
Phase 1 and which contained over 100 separate projects. The
projects were a result of extensive stakeholder consultation. All
of the projects were identified by stakeholders in discussion
with our sector specialists.
There was a very extensive Household Multisector Survey

carried out during Phase 1. The survey was carried out in
selected Weredas and Kebeles representing different farming
systems and agro-ecologies. The total sample population was
1080 with 60 households per Kebele. The sample considered
different groups of the community, the poor (45%), wealthier
(20%), middle classes (30%), as defined by the Wereda
administration and the local community. Several women-headed
households (5%) were also selected. The description, method
and results are reported in the Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume
4, Socioeconomy, Annex C, Multisector Household Survey.
More important have been the many informal discussions by our

sector and other experts with every stakeholder that could be

identified. These began in Phase 1 and the list of stakeholders
consulted is presented in the Phase 1 Report, Parts I and II,
General Appendix, Stakeholder Consultation and List of
Stakeholders. There are 14 Ministries, almost 60 other national
organisations and institutions, more than 100 regional, zonal,
wereda and kebele level offices and over 750 individuals
representing civil society, public and private sectors, NGOs and
individuals listed in the document, all of whom have been
consulted on various matters according to their area of interest
or expertise. As part of this Phase 2 report this List of
Stakeholders has been updated to include all the Phase 2
stakeholder consultations.
Moreover, the socioeconomics team, which included the social

anthropologist and the specialist in gender and disadvantaged
groups, identified 29 ethnic groups in the basin and studied
their specific traditions and cultures. This was also done
through stakeholder processes including key informant
interviews, discussions with elders and religious leaders,
learning history through individuals and through folk tellers.
These assessments established a base for Master Plan
preparation.
During Phase 2 the same approach has been taken.

Stakeholders have been visited and consulted at national,
regional, zonal, wereda, kebele levels, as well as individuals of
civil society, private enterprises, etc. Our team attended and
observed the meetings of SNNPRS to finalise their development
zones so that we could follow their definitions and delineations.
The stakeholder consultations will continue through the end of
Phase 2, with another formal workshop following the submission
of this Draft Master Plan document.
In short, the stakeholder consultation process in the Master

Plan study has been a massive undertaking, ensuring that the
team is fully aware of the situation in the RVLB with regard to
all parts of society, all sectors of the economy and the interests
and needs of the people.

2.5 Geographic Information Systems
2.5.1 General Description

The data for the Master Plan has been built around a
Geographical Information System (GIS). The architecture of the
GIS database has been built on ESRI GIS (Arcview 3.x and
ARCGIS DESKTOP 9.x) and IDRISI ANDES GIS/Image
processing products. GIS data are mainly stored in ESRI and
IDRISI proprietary formats as:
 ARCINFO coverage in workspaces, shape files, raster images

and export formats (.E00 and .flt) in folders
 IDRISI formats. Preliminary structures have been designed
for storing the data.
Additional information is stored in the formats in which it was

supplied (HDF, for example). Most of the data in these ‘alien’
formats has been converted to ESRI and/or IDRISI formats
where in use by the project. The information system also
includes tabular data which are stored in Microsoft Access
databases and spreadsheets. Metadata have been created for
key datasets.
Some datasets have been acquired from external sources such

as the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project
(WBISPP), CSA, University of Berne. Other data have been
obtained through Ethiopian agencies. The majority of the data
have been developed by this study from secondary and primary
sources.
The documentation of the GIS_MIS is to be provided in

electronic format as a series of annotated catalogues, formal
metadata for key data sets, and a set of ‘short cuts’ to access the
locations of data. The top level catalogue is presented here in
Table 2.1.
Metadata is accessed through ARCatalog (which is searchable),

with copies available in electronic format (XML format). In
general this format can be made acceptable to the ENRAEMED
database being created by the Ethiopian Government. Detailed
metadata has been prepared for all key outputs of the study. For

other data sets and intermediate data only generalised metadata
is provided.
The key data has been provided in both an ESRI ‘Personal Geo-
Database’ format and as a set of individual ESRI shapefiles. A
catalogue has been prepared to show how to navigate to the
complete database. The catalogue is very large and is not
reproduced in hard copy.
The database is provided on an external USB2 hard disk. It

includes all data acquired for the MoWR for the Project, the
final data for Phase 1, and intermediate level data for the Phase
2 Master Plan and Prefeasibility studies. The latter will be
finalised after dealing with comments on Phase 2.

Table STUDY OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH.1: Summary GIS-MIS
data structure
Folder PATH listing Type of Information
├───af_landcover Land use/cover, productivity for Africa USGS
├───Aster Aster images and digital elevation models for
Ethiopia
├───aster new Aster images for Ethiopia
├───ENGDA (USGS geological database used in Ethiopia)
├───esad_mrsid Mosaic image maps for Ethiopia
├───ethiopia GIS data sets from global and local sources for
Ethiopia
├───etopo_globe Global Digital Elevation model 1 km
├───fao_gaul_etc FAO population and administrative district data
├───fews_model FEWS system/model information
├───floods_modis Flood images from MODIS - Ethiopia
├───gazetteer NEMA global gazeteer
├───gclf Images from Global Land Cover Facility for RVLB
├───Geological Map of Ethiopia Geological map of Ethiopia
├───geomorphology_awash Awash geomorphology
├───glas Satellite laser water elevations
├───global land cover 1 Global land cover data
├───global_climate_data Global climate data
├───global_population Global population data
├───Goodes.AF.2000321 Global land cover data
├───Goodes.AF.2000361.2001032 Global land cover data
├───Goodes.AF.2001033 Global land cover data
├───google_downloads (D) Google images high resolution
├───Hydrogeological map of Ethiopia Hydrogeological map of Ethiopia
├───Hydrogeology Hydrogeology RVLB
├───ILRI_data Data from ILRI for Ethiopia
├───MISC_ET Miscellaneous Ethiopia data
├───models-dec05 Data and software models
├───modis_LC_change MODIS Land use change data
├───modis_veg_continuos_fields MODIS continuous vegetation fields
├───modis_veg_conversion MODIS vegetation conversion ratios
├───new-srtm-ethiopia New SRTM DEM data for Ethiopia
├───precis Information about global climate change models
├───RVLB_Data Comprehensive GIS and MIS database for RVLB
Project
├───soil Ethiopia Archived soil maps for Ethiopia
├───Topography Map Ethiopian topographic maps (scanned)
├───Topomaps_250000 Ethiopian topographic maps (scanned)
├───Topo_Tiff_Images Ethiopian topographic maps (scanned)
├───Topo_Tiff_Images_unrec Ethiopian topographic maps (scanned)
├───unh_grdc United Nations global flow measurement data
├───warp-images Miscellaneous MrSid resampled image maps

└───woodybio Woody biomass project outputs
2.5.2 Satellite Imagery

The following satellite imagery was acquired and used in the
study:
 LandSat MSS for 1970 (all four bands ortho-rectified)

 LandSat TM for 1986-1990 (all seven bands ortho-rectified)
 LandSat ETM for 2000 (all eight bands ortho-rectified)
 MrSid images for 1987-90 (colour composite bands from
bands 7, 6, 5 and 2 ortho-rectified)
 MrSid Images for 2000(colour composite bands from bands
7, 6, 5 and 2 ortho-rectified)
 Aster Images (14 bands, only three of which are used), for
the period December 2005 to the present, for areas where
imagery is available.
 a single LandSat scene for 2006 (SLC off – missing data),
covering part of the area where Aster data are not available.
The Landsat TM and ETM images are the very same images
used to create the MrSid format mosaic images. The TM images
are the same as those used in the earlier Rift Valley Lakes Basin
project around 1990.
2.5.3 Information in the GIS

Digital format information acquired for the RVLB includes the
following themes:
 satellite imagery for three different times (approximately

1986, 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, with additional data for
1973, together with ortho-rectified image maps. All output
products have been ortho-rectified)
 land cover and land use (RVLB1 and Woody biomass
coverage)
 soils (various versions of national coverage soil maps for
Ethiopia)
 land use, including areas of special interest and parks
 geology
 mineralisation

 morphology/geomorphology
 hydrogeology
 demography and agro-economic statistics (See CSA-ERE
Atlas)
 topography: includes selected scan digitised 1:250,000 tiles
and a full mosaic of Ethiopia
 infrastructure
 digital elevation models
 agro-ecological zone maps
 Watersheds, hydrology, hydrometeorology and water
resources.
Full coverage of the RVLB of paper versions of the 1:250,000

and 1:50,000 scale topographic maps have been procured from
the Ethiopian Mapping Agency (EMA).
2.5.4 Maps and Data Developed

Information developed during this study includes:
 gridded individual monthly rainfall for 360 months, long

term monthly average potential evaporation and long term
annual rainfall and potential evaporation maps, in ESRI
GRID export formats. These climate grids were based on
interpolation from available data from individual climate
stations. The full details of the procedures to perform this
interpolation are included in the Phase 1 Report, Volume 1,
Annex A, Climate and Hydrology and the revised procedures
in Phase 2, reported in Annex A of this document. All of
these particular data will be provided once the Phase 2
reports are finalised, in case any revisions are required.
 new land use map based on updated imagery 2005-2006,
scale 1:250,000; this updated imagery is added to the data
already acquired (the imagery provided for the study as a
whole includes Landsat TM (7 bands MS, 30 metre
resolution), Landsat ETM (with and without ‘slc’ on - 7 bands
of 30 metre resolution MS, and a 15 metre panchromatic
band), and ASTER VNIR (4 bands of MS, 15 metre
resolution. In addition 60 metre resolution Landsat MSS, 4
bands of MS was acquired for the MoWR archive. Refer to
citation data associated with metadata for details.)

 soil map at a scale of 1:250,000, built using some 2000 auger
and pit data, and extensive visual interpretation of multiple
digital images and digital data (slope, elevation, relief, land
cover), providing a completely revised map at 1:250,000
scale
 land suitability maps for rainfed agriculture, scale 1:250,000
 livelihood zone map for SNNPRS, scale 1:1,000,000, in
digital format
 national AEZ for year 2000, scale 1:2,000,000, in digital
format
 land use map for the 1992 study, digitised and revised to
provide a common base for land use change mapping, scale
1:250,000
 land use mapping: main water bodies, forested areas, and
major farms and irrigation schemes for periods 1986-90, and
2000-2001, updated for 2005-2006 where imagery is
available, scale 1:100,000
 ARCHydro model of drainage and catchments using SRTM3
data acquired for the area and resampled and processed to
57 metres resolution; this is a structured GEODatabase used
in WEAP and other models
 river/drainage network from year 2000/2001 imagery, scale
1:100,000
 an inventory of wells was acquired and ’cleaned’ to provide a
hydrogeology data base, containing a wells and springs
database for the RVLB comprising over 2000 records. This is
being used to interpret the hydrogeology of the RVLB and is
reported in Volume 1 – Water Resources, Annex B:
Hydrogeology. A new hydrogeological map has been
prepared in digital format.
 Geology: all 1:250,000 scale paper maps for the RVLB were
acquired from GSE, scanned and digitised into vector
formats, two in number. Additional maps at scales from
1:50,000 (four) up to 1:500,000 (one) scales were acquired
and digitised. Fieldwork was completed to revise and check
the mapped data and a composite geology map with data
included at 1:250,000 and 1:500,000 scale has been
prepared.

A number of land cover and vegetation thematic maps at scales
of approximately 1:1,000,000 were acquired for different times
which are used for additional information for land use mapping.
The Central Statistics Authority Atlas CSA-ERE was also

acquired, which contains wereda level statistics (2004) for
demography and agriculture plus some base mapping and
topography, for all Ethiopia.
Information from a range of earlier studies was also collected,

which includes:
University of Berne National GIS with 1:1,000,000 scale

mapping of Ethiopia covering national and wereda boundaries,
climate and rainfall data, topography, hydrological basins and
drainage, infrastructure including roads and towns and soils.
The Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project

which contains digital information on land cover especially for
forest and shrub growth. Full documentation for the Woody
Biomass project was also obtained.
The Updated 2005 Agro-ecological Zones of Ethiopia mapping,

which was used in place of previous mapping, such as from the
De Pauw study (1988).
2.5.5 Project Base Maps

The project base map has been created using:
 roads, from the ERA and regional roads agencies, in digital

vector form, classified by type
 drainage, traced from ortho-rectified satellite images dated
2000/2001, augmented by additional channels from EMA
1:250,000 mapping; this is in general an update of the EMA
mapping
 a selection of towns from 1:250,000 mapping
 river drainage from year 2000 satellite imagery.
With regard to administrative boundary data, the datasets are

under almost continuous revision as weredas and kebele
boundaries are. We have had to establish an end point to such

changes. It is not the function of the study to update
administrative boundaries and topographic mapping. However,
the provenance and specifications of such data are included in
the metadata to avoid misunderstanding.
2.5.6 Data Bases

Several data bases have been developed, which include:
 Soils - the auger and pit data gathered during the soil
mapping are presented as a Microsoft Access database and
in spreadsheet format, and can be linked to the GIS locations
at pits, augers and other observations
 Land use observations and land suitability
 Hydrogeology, which was developed from over 7,000 well
locations. The data within the base is very limited, reflecting
the paucity of information in borehole records as kept by the
ministry. The data base is presented as a spreadsheet and a
Microsoft Access database linked to the GIS.
 Statistics - the 2004 CSA Statistical Atlas data have been
incorporated into our database and used for many purposes.
It is linked to the GIS, but can also be run in stand-alone
mode using the CSA CD.
 Agronomy - the CSA Statistical Atlas data have been
processed in such a way as to make them usable in
modelling. The basic wereda data have been used to
elaborate a set of agronomy data by wereda. In turn, using
GIS techniques, these have been presented by AEZ. The
data, including Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP),
are to be used in optimisation modelling for the Master Plan.
These data have been incorporated into a Microsoft ACCESS
database together with population and other socioeconomic
information that supports the economic modelling performed
in developing the Master Plan.
 Irrigation Crop Water Requirements – is a spreadsheet
database created for estimating crop water requirements for
irrigation by ‘irrigation’ AEZ. The data is presented in
spreadsheet and database format. CROPWAT, the FAO model
for estimating crop water requirements was used for the
analysis. A number of important cash crops have been
identified together with a general cropping pattern. These

data are used in the water resources model to generate
cropping patterns and water demands.
 Irrigation - a database of existing, potential and proposed
irrigation schemes, linked to the GIS.
 Dams - a database of existing, potential and proposed dam
sites, linked to the GIS.
 Population and Demography – to forecast population growth
is available as a spreadsheet and as a Microsoft Access
database.
2.6 Simulation and Optimisation Modelling
The Master Plan was assessed through a series of models. These

can be aggregated, for discussion, into two main models, the
Economic Resource Optimisation and Allocation Model
(EROAM) and the Water Resources Model.
2.6.1 The EROAM

A more complete summary of the Economic and Resource
Optimisation and Allocation Model (EROAM) is provided in
Section 7 of this report, and it is described in detail in Annex C.
The objective function of the Economic Resource Optimisation

and Allocation Model (EROAM) model is to maximise Net Value
Added (NVA) of the RVLB regional economy under a series of
constraints.
The model takes into account the possibility of export from

RVLB of excess production and import of deficits in foodstuffs,
woody biomass and dry matter. The import and export
“penalties” reflect the fact that it is easier to produce for the
home market.
The geographical units of the model are the Development Zones

(DZs), which are described in detail in Section 6. There are 8
DZs, but with a ninth which is made up of the parts of specific
weredas which are outside the basin boundaries. The model
identifies production surpluses and deficits which are translated
into exports and imports following the same cost penalties as for
exports and imports outside the region. The balance of exports

and imports between the development zones represents the
balance of trade of RVLB and the rest of Ethiopia.
Net Value Added (NVA) is part of the objective function and is

equivalent to the Gross Value of Production (GVP) minus the
cost of intermediate inputs, and is the return to labour. It is
equivalent to the Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP).
The model has been prepared around seven time periods, the
baseline (2005) for which data is available, and projected in six
year periods through to 2035. It has three basic parts:
 The main model in Excel supported by What’s Best?

(eroam_rvlb_vxx.xls)
 The Access database which is required to generate data by
development zones for rural and urban population, crop,
livestock, fish and bee areas, numbers and production in the
baseline, woody biomass consumption in the baseline and
land use statistics
 The summary spreadsheet, Summary of Crop and Farm
Budgets_RVLB.xls which must be constructed for each
development zone.
2.6.2 The Water Resources Model

The Water Resources Model is based on the WEAP software.
WEAP is distinguished by its integrated approach to simulating
water systems. It is essentially a water balance model which
places the demand side of the equation (water use patterns,
equipment efficiencies, reuse, prices and allocation) on an equal
footing with the supply side (streamflow, groundwater,
reservoirs and water transfers) and has the ability to examine
alternative water development and management strategies.
WEAP has both surface water and groundwater components but,
because of the paucity of groundwater data, the groundwater
component is only used to determine losses to groundwater
from the surface system. Essentially, then, WEAP is used to
determine surface water resources, along with the impacts of
various scenarios and of the development strategies themselves.

The RVLB has been broken down into 208 subcatchments to
improve accuracy in the model. These are aggregated into four
major sub-basins as follows:
 Ziway, Abiyata, Langano, Shala lake system

 Lake Awasa sub-basin
 the Lake Abaya, Lake Chamo system
 the southern sub-basin which comprises the Segen and
Weito rivers and Chew Bahir.
The main input is rainfall, with outputs of evapotranspiration,

evaporation and losses to groundwater. There are also points of
water demands to enable modelling of how water demands
change over time.
For the main modelling work, a monthly time series was

developed over 360 months (30 years) of observed rainfall and
(where available) observed stream flows and lake levels. The
model has been calibrated based on these observed values
before running the various scenarios to assess master plan
issues.
The Water Resources model and the results of the modelling are
summarised in Section 7.4 and presented in detail in Annex A.
2.7 Master Plan Formulation
2.7.1 The General Setting

This Master Plan takes a different approach from previous river
basin master plan studies in Ethiopia because the RVLB is a very
different basin from the others. Many of the other basins have
significant water resources and therefore good potential for
developing large water resources projects which make a major
contribution to the economy of the basin. The RVLB does not.
That water resources are the primary constraint to the
development of the RVLB was stated from the outset of this
project within the ToR, and the analysis of water resources in
the study has proved it. There are no large water resources
projects feasible in the RVLB and only limited scope for further
irrigation development.

Our work indicates that many other natural resources in the
RVLB are also at or beyond their limits of exploitation. Land
resources, like water, are a primary constraint to development
because of the growing extent of land degradation in many parts
of the basin. Results of our studies show that current rates of
natural resource exploitation are, for the most part,
unsustainable. Many sectors are in a state of decline and in
most cases the focus must now be on conservation and on
determining and regulating sustainable limits of production,
rather than on increasing production.
While the natural resources of the basin all contribute to the

economy of the RVLB, each is limited in its potential. Therefore,
the economic and social development of the RVLB must be
founded on a more diversified economy. Strategies C and D, two
of the four alternatives provided in this Master Plan, are
directed at a more diversified economy with stronger emphasis
on industrial development and the public investment required to
support it.
Agriculture continues to play a central role in the growth of the

economy over the Master Plan period. There is good scope for
increasing agricultural production through intensification and
expansion (though expansion is extremely limited), but the
scope is finite. It is governed by agronomic limits as well as by
limitations on available and suitable land and climate for
expansion of rain fed agriculture, and by the limited potential
for irrigation development. Even within these limitations,
increases in productivity require significant efforts and
investment by government and by the farmers themselves.
Linked with increasing agricultural productivity is the need to

develop markets for agricultural products, and to educate
farmers in improved agronomy and agricultural markets. These
measures are necessary to initiate a move away from
subsistence and toward more commercially oriented farming.
This does not mean that large scale, commercial agriculture
needs to dominate; only that even smaller scale farmers need to
take a more commercial approach if food security considerations
is to be enhanced alongside financial security.

Some of the agricultural products will be consumed within the
basin, and some will be exported from the basin; the former will
contribute directly to the food supply of the basin, while both
will generate cash income for farmers and others. An integral
part of the MP is the development of industries processing
agricultural products, providing markets for agricultural goods
and driving the growth of industry and other associated
commercial enterprises.
The agricultural processing industry also has a limit linked with

that of agricultural production. Put another way, the industry
can process only what is grown and (a) surplus to farmers’
household needs and (b) not consumed as food without need for
processing; these considerations set a maximum on the growth
of agro-industries.
2.7.2 Economic Diversification

Because of the limits on the growth of agricultural productivity,
on the potential for growth in the natural resources sectors and
on the agricultural processing industry, growth in other areas of
industry and commerce are necessary to achieve a reasonable
level of economic growth in the RVLB.
The economic benefit of increased productivity and increased

market involvement in agriculture is significant in terms of
contribution to overall Regional (basin) Gross Domestic Product
(RGDP) and in terms of improved livelihoods for those who
choose to remain in farming. However, agriculture alone cannot
create the economic growth necessary in the RVLB to lift the
majority out of poverty.
In the future, agriculture will employ fewer people per hectare

as mechanisation and other forms of increased efficiency in
farming grow, as they must to achieve a good level of
productivity. With changes in land tenure policy toward the
ownership of land, some people will choose to sell land and drop
out of farming for their income. Further, the percentage of the
population employed in agriculture will decrease through the
combination of increased mechanisation and an increased
population, most of which cannot be absorbed into farming.
Note that such a change in agriculture and employment will
happen with or without government involvement – indeed it is

already happening. The issue is whether or not the change will
occur in a planned and organised manner; with good planning, it
can be accelerated managed to limit their adverse impacts and
enable its maximum potential to be realised.
This change essentially dictates a diversification of the economy

of the basin. Fewer people will be engaged in farming and a
growing population will need jobs; therefore employment
opportunities and much of the economic growth will be driven
by other sectors. Some of these will be natural resources
sectors, such as livestock, fisheries, minerals, forestry, energy,
etc. But the natural resources of the basin are quite limited,
with the consequence that non-resource based industries must
also develop and grow. The RVLB needs a fully modern and
diverse economy.
The development of the RVLB will be driven by efforts and

investment from both the public and private sectors. The private
sector will be of great importance in investment in industry and
commerce. As noted above, not all of the industrial development
will be in agro-industries. To achieve an economic growth rate
sufficient to support the basin and take its population out of
poverty, investment in non-agricultural industries will be
necessary.
Estimates are made in the MP for the contribution to RGDP from

agricultural processing industries, based on assumptions linked
to increases in agricultural productivity. But it is not certain
what non-agricultural industries may develop in the basin and
this MP study does not attempt to guess at what they may be in
detail. What is important is for government to drive and
facilitate the growth of industry through providing appropriate
infrastructure such as roads, communications, water supply and
sanitation, energy and power, educational facilities, health
facilities, etc. In other words, government needs to provide an
environment which is attractive to business and to the people
who may choose to live and start businesses in the RVLB.
Additionally, government needs to facilitate growth through
opening the doors for industrial and commercial development to
take place, through reducing unnecessary restrictions, through
improving policies to make them more attractive to investors
and through promoting the RVLB as a good place to invest.

Some of the investment by government will be in capital
projects, but much of the investment will be in the form of
programmes, such as agricultural extension, developing and
enforcing a regulatory environment for natural resources
sectors in particular, but also in industry. Because of the fragile
nature of the environment of the RVLB, environmental
regulations will need to be strongly enforced. Programmes for
institutional strengthening are also needed. Investments in
these programmes will have larger earlier costs because of the
need to build up the existing systems and expand services
rapidly, but there are also recurrent costs which will increase
with time.
2.7.3 Prioritising Government Investment

The economic growth of the RVLB over the Master Plan period
will be driven by investment from both the private sector and
the public sector. Specific areas of private sector investment
cannot be predicted, but there is a relationship between the
amount of private sector investment and the level of investment
from government. The government needs to invest significantly
in public infrastructure and in the regulatory environment to
create a climate attractive to industries and drive development.
Where, when and how much investment is required from
government is detailed in the Master Plan.
2.7.4 Following Project Aims and Objectives

The Master Plan follows the two stated project aims of
promoting sustainable development and reducing poverty.
Poverty reduction is quantified mainly through RGDP, but can
also be considered through changes in labour productivity.
Sustainability is directed at both environmental and resource
sustainability. These are interconnected, but environment could
be considered to encompass the health of land and water, and
with emphasis on the lakes. Other natural resources include
fisheries, forests, wildlife, etc., as most of the natural resources
are now being exploited beyond a sustainable level.
2.7.5 Following National and Regional Policies and Strategies

The Master Plan has been prepared within the framework of the
national development objectives and strategies, as well as the

specific national and regional policies formulated for each sector
of the economy. It is, however, important to emphasise that the
overarching goal of the national development strategy is
poverty reduction and this will be achieved through
Government of Ethiopia’s (GoE) Plan for Accelerated and
Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) which is being
implemented between 2005/06 and 2009/10. This strategy aims
to reduce poverty by accelerating economic growth and focusing
government investment in pro-poor sectors (e.g. agriculture,
education and health), while maintaining macro-economic
stability and facilitating private sector investment.
In accordance with PASDEP, and as indicated in the ToR, the

main aim of the study is to prepare a Master Plan which
“contributes towards sustainable development and poverty
reduction in the Basin and makes optimum use of all natural,
physical, human and animal resources with the minimum
environmental impact”. Development goals are therefore both
regional and sector specific, and the broad aims for the
development of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin include:
 maintaining and enhancing the RVLB as a food surplus area

and a producer of cash crops for the domestic and export
markets
 establishing regional self-sufficiency in non-food agricultural
and forestry products
 utilising natural resources for agro-processing and other
related industries
 exploiting renewable energy resources within the Basin,
such as hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind etc
 diversifying the economic base of the Basin to expand non-
farm income and employment opportunities in both the
urban and rural areas and
 improving the management and conservation of the natural
environment to ensure its long term sustainability.
National policies for each development sector have been

formulated on the basis of PASDEP, and these policies apply at
the regional, zonal and wereda levels. The national policies also
provide the framework for the preparation of national and
regional programmes for various sectors with the regional

plans, along with programmes tailored to the specific
development opportunities and constraints within each region.
PASDEP and national sector policies, which were discussed in

Volume 6, Annex A, National and Regional Economics and Policy
Framework, of the Phase 1 Report for this RVLB Master Plan
Study, therefore provide a clear guide to the key development
objectives, issues and priorities which were taken into account
during the preparation of the Master Plan.
2.7.6 Focus on Key Issues

Several factors will affect achievement of the aims and
objectives of the Master Plan. They are discussed in more detail
in Section 4, but the list below indicates the major issues. They
are all considered in the MP, either explicitly or implicitly.
 population
 gender issues and the need for improvement for women and
youths
 agricultural productivity and the need for real change
 land tenure
 water resources and management
 climate change
 environment, especially around the lakes
 water quality and public health
 forestry, grazing and biomass
 soil erosion control
 fish stocks
 wildlife biodiversity
 economic infrastructure
 industrial base
 institutional capacity
 education services
 health services

3 THE RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN
3.1 Location
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) is one of eleven major river
basins in Ethiopia. Master Plan Studies have been completed for
most of them, making the RVLB one of the last. The RVLB is
considered a high priority because it is an area of significant
ecological and environmental interest, with the system of lakes
and its national parks and reserves, has substantial areas of
productive rainfed agricultural land and good rangelands, but
also because of the great need in the basin for economic and
social development.
The basin covers a total area of approximately 53,000 km 2. Its

northern limit is near to Addis Ababa and runs south from there
to the Kenyan border. Its eastern and western boundaries are
formed by the highest elevations of the highlands. The principal
feature of the RVLB is that it is a graben, a block fault geological
structure in which the floor of the valley has become vertically
displaced with respect to the valley sides, resulting in typical rift
valley topography with a wide, steep sided valley and a broad,
flat bottom. Elevation ranges between approximately 500 masl
in the valley bottom at the southern end, to 3000 masl at the
highland margins, with the northern valley bottom around 1600
masl.
For purposes of discussion, the RVLB has been divided into four
primary sub-basins described by their main lake systems, the
first comprising lakes Ziway, Abiyata and Langano and Shala,
the second Lake Awasa, the third lakes Abaya and Chamo and
the fourth Chew Bahir. It should be noted that the term sub-
basin may be used to describe areas other than these in other
sections of the reporting.
The presence of these lakes suggests a basin with plentiful

water resources, but this is not the case. All these lake systems
or sub-basins, and the RVLB itself, are hydrologically closed,
meaning there is no surface water outlet from the lakes except
for evaporation. The lakes are therefore highly vulnerable to

changes in water use regimes in the basin and to pollutants.
They are a set of fragile ecosystems which need careful
management and protection.
The RVLB is shared administratively between two Regional

States, Oromiya and Southern Nations, Nationalities and
Peoples (SNNP). The northern and central parts of the valley
from Awasa northwards and across to Sodo in the west have
reasonably good access to the capital Addis Ababa, which is
important for many reasons, not least the access to markets.
The south and south-west are remote with no nearby major
centres and poor transportation networks making travel difficult
and many areas essentially inaccessible during the rainy season.
3.2 Socioeconomic Features of the RVLB
The following is a synopsis of the socioeconomic features of the

RVLB. For further detail the reader is directed to the Final
Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume 4, Socioeconomics, especially
Annex B, Social and Economic Aspects of RVLB, Annex D,
Gender and Development, Annex E, Social Anthropology and
Annex F, Population and Demographic Characteristics.
3.2.1 Population and Growth

Current (2005) population is estimated at 8.9 million. Ethiopia is
among the least urbanised of African nations and the RVLB is
the least urbanised area of Ethiopia, with less than 13% living in
urban areas. Within the basin, 74% of the population is in
SNNPRS and 26% in Oromiya. Population density of the basin as
a whole is 167 persons per km2, which is three times the
average for the country. There is significant variation of
population density within the basin. Those areas within SNNPRS
have a density of 202 persons per km 2, about twice that of areas
within Oromiya. Population density ranges from a low of 30
persons per km2 in Borena to 614 persons per km2 in Gedeo.
Population Dynamics
The growth of population is dependent on fertility, mortality and

migration. As discussed above, the current growth rate is very
high and has an adverse effect upon development in the basin.

Fertility is indicated by the total fertility rate (TFR), which
measures the expected number of children per woman. This has
been very high across Ethiopia but has declined substantially
over the last twenty years to reach 5.7 children per woman in
2005, an aggregate of 2.4 in Ethiopia and 6.0 in rural areas.
Averaging over Oromiya and SNNPRS, the estimated TFR is 5.9
for the RVLB. This number is expected to decline further if
government puts appropriate measures in place.
Crude death rates (CDR) in Ethiopia have substantially declined

over the past 50 years from about 30 per 1,000 people in 1955
to an estimated 15 in 2005. At the same time, life expectancy
rose from about 34 to 48 years for both sexes. The decline in
CDR is due mainly to the decline in infant and under-five child
mortality rates (U5MR), which have declined from 216 per 1,000
live births in 1984 to 123/1,000 live births in 2005.
As is the case with fertility, mortality is also affected by

demographic and socioeconomic factors. Gender, birth order,
birth spacing, multiple births, etc. have an effect on the
probability of survival of a child. From the economic side,
household characteristics (nutritional status, education and
income of parents, and health knowledge and practices) and
access to community infrastructure (quantity and quality of
water provisions, sanitation services, and access to health
facilities) are determinants of mortality.
SNNPRS has the highest infant (under 1 year old) mortality rate
(85 per 1000) compared both with Oromiya and the national
average. An estimate for the basin, assumed to fall between the
estimates for SNNPRS and Oromiya, would be similar to the
national average. The under-five mortality rates are also high for
the basin, standing at 132 children per 1,000 live births. This
implies that achieving the fourth MDG which targets the
reduction of the under-five mortality rate by two thirds by 2015
will be very difficult to achieve both at country and regional
level.
Ethiopia also has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in

Africa and the world: estimated at 673 per 100,000 live births in
2005. This extremely high rate is unlikely to be reduced to 100

by 2015 in order to meet the MDG target to reduce maternal
mortality by three quarters by 2015.
Migration
There has not been a specific migration survey in Ethiopia, but

the 1999 National Labour Force Survey provides some
information on internal migration patterns. It is not possible to
extract basin specific information from the survey but there is
information on Oromiya and SNNPRS. The survey results show
that in Oromiya, in-migration and out-migration are almost
balanced, whether looking at rural-rural or rural-urban. In other
words, the net shift of population in 1999 was negligible. This is
quite different in SNNPRS, where out-migrants significantly
exceed in-migrants in all cases except for rural-to-urban
migrants. The implication here is that there is significantly more
movement in SNNPRS than in Oromiya. There is likely to be a
strong causal link between the increased migratory movement
in SNNPRS and its higher population densities compared with
Oromiya.
As population increases in the RVLB, land pressures increase,

farm employment opportunities decrease, and there will likely
be more and more migration. This will be either to less
populated weredas, or to those with greater employment
opportunities through increased industrialisation, or out of the
basin entirely if those opportunities are not realised.
One related issue that has recently received attention is

migration out of Ethiopia. Economic development and poverty
reduction, which are the purpose of this Master Plan, are the
means through which to stop out-migration.
Population Growth
According to the medium variant projection, the population of

the RVLB is expected to double before 2025, and grow to 22.9
million by the end of the Master Plan period. The corresponding
average growth rate is 3.15%, but it is much higher (3.8%) in
the early years of the Master Plan period. This is a very high
growth rate and is an obstacle to the economic development of

the basin. A priority for government must be to determine ways
to limit population growth.
Age Structure
The age structure of the population is also an important feature.

About 45% of the population of the basin is under 15 years, with
a working population of 53% (note that this does not imply that
they are actually working, only that they are in the working age
group). The RVLB shows a slightly higher proportion of under-
15 group than the national average and an accordingly lower
proportion for the working age. Such a population distribution
shows that now about half of the population must support the
other half (the young and the old). It also shows that a large
group of young people will be soon coming into working age and
will require employment, most of which will not be coming from
agriculture.
Dependency Ratio
The dependency ratio of a population is another age-based

measure indicating what percentage of the population is
supported by the other. The RVLB has an almost 90%
dependency ratio, which means that for every 100 people there
are 90 dependents. Considered another way, 1 person supports
9 others. With the changing age structure expected this will
reduce to approximately 70 dependents out of every 100 people.
The already high and rapidly growing population is probably the

number one constraint to the economic development of the
RVLB. Simply keeping up with population growth to provide
services and employment opportunities is a very difficult task,
even without considering real, per capita economic growth and
improvements in livelihoods and household incomes.
3.2.2 Ethnic Diversity

The RVLB is an ethnically diverse area. Our anthropological
studies identified 29 ethnic groups and four tribal sections of
the Oromo within the basin. The Oromos outnumber by far the
other ethnic groups in the basin, representing 29% of the total
population. This is followed by the Sidama (16%) and the
Wolayitas (7.3%). Arbore, Mossiya, Oyeda, Tsemay, Zeysie,

Gewada. Burji, Hamer, Gedole, and Mali each make less than
0.5% of the population in the Basin.
There are no specific issues identified with one or another

ethnic group, but a diverse ethnic makeup can present a
challenge to development projects and programmes if one group
feels another is being favoured by a particular intervention or
investment.
3.2.3 Gender Issues

The gender issues in the RVLB are many and various. There are
problems related to specific ethnic groups overlaid on the
overall poor attitude toward, and low status of, women in the
community.
In general, the overwhelming majority of women, regardless of

background, have huge workloads, virtually no access to
resources, no civil rights, no decision making capacity and no
control over their own bodies and lives. In many cases they are
the victims of direct and indirect social and physical violence
simply because they are women. The imbalance of workloads,
access to and control of resources, and social status between
male and female in the RVLB is huge and endemic. The
conclusion of the specialist in our study is that the pursuance of
gender equity and equality must become part of the provision of
basic human rights. This should focus on alleviating women’s
work loads, providing political representation, providing
education and information, and increasing cultural and social
awareness of women’s human rights.
There is evidence of at least some positive change in the status

of women. With the slow expansion of government presence at
local level through the devolution process, health and family
planning services and education as well as basic household
improvements such as water supply and sanitation and energy,
many women are beginning to understand that their status can
be improved. Change may begin to come quickly as more girls
have access to education and women have more time to devote
to themselves and to community issues.

3.2.4 Other Disadvantaged Groups
Other groups are discriminated against in the RVLB. Many of
these issues are ethnically based, but some are more
widespread. Certain types of occupation are considered low and
those who are employed in them considered low themselves.
Disabled people generally have full civil rights but they are
discriminated against in the marriage market (especially
women). Some ethnic groups are said to treat their disabled
worse than others, e.g. the Gewada and Derashe. The Oyeda,
Hadiya, Alaba and Arsi Oromo impose restrictions on disabled
people regarding some aspects of inheritance.
The national policy for social welfare includes disabled people

but there is little implementation capacity for the policy. The
problem of the disabled is therefore firmly in the hands of local
communities, which may not have the education or capacity to
ensure basic rights. Since the financial resources of these
communities are extremely limited, the disabled must be
considered highly vulnerable to economic deprivation.
3.2.5 Economic Development (RGDP)

The economy of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin is primarily based on
agricultural production and related activities, with 87% of the
population living in rural areas. The vast majority of the
population are also dependent on agricultural production as
their main source of livelihood. The agricultural sector (i.e.
crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry) is estimated to account
for about 69% of GDP while industry and service sectors
account for 8% and 23% respectively.
The regional GDP of the Basin is estimated at around ETB 8.5

billion in 2005 prices and this accounted for around 7.8% of
national GDP in 2005/06. With a population of 8.74 million, the
regional GDP per capita is therefore estimated at about ETB 623
(or ETB 3,100 per household). Using the 2005 exchange rate,
this is equivalent to USD 72 per capita which is low even by
national standards and is far below the accepted value of US $1
per day defining the level of extreme poverty.

Crop production accounts for the greatest proportion (36%) of
labour requirements in the Basin, followed by livestock/livestock
products with 32%. Cottage industries and trading also account
for significant proportions of employment with 6% and 12%
respectively. There is substantial under-employment in the RVLB
and labour productivity is very low, particularly for the
population engaged in agricultural and livestock production,
cottage industries and petty services. However, returns to
labour are significantly higher for forestry, fishing, power
generation, agro-processing and other medium/large scale
industries.
3.2.6 Livelihoods and Employment

The rural areas of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin are characterised
by low agricultural productivity and small landholding size.
Population growth therefore places an ever-growing pressure on
already inadequate farm sizes. Most farmers in the Basin have
only small plots of farmland producing food primarily for
subsistence and are therefore not market oriented. The average
farm size per household is about 0.80 hectare, but this falls to
0.40 ha per household in the densely populated highland areas
of RVLB, e.g. Sidama and Gedeo.
Many households therefore need to meet their basic food and

household requirements through off-farm and non-farm
activities. However, current employment opportunities in non-
farm activities are limited for most households. In future, it is
hoped that increasing crop and livestock productivity will make
a substantial contribution towards improving rural livelihoods,
but there is also an urgent need to develop alternative non-farm
employment and income generating activities.
About 20% of the rural households are engaged in wage

employment (local or migratory) and over two thirds of
employment entails working on other farms. Other sources of
employment include government, NGOs and cooperatives. Less
than 17% of rural households have small cottage enterprises
such as weaving, basketry and pottery. Other enterprises
include building work, carpentry, metal work and
tailoring/knitting. Most output is sold to other rural inhabitants.

Other non-farm enterprises include trading, shop keeping and
catering businesses. Despite the widespread nature of such non-
farm activities and their critical economic importance,
households generally regard farm work as their principal
occupation. However, in recent years, there has been greater
focus on the development of micro and small enterprises
(MSEs). This has gained momentum and a number of
microfinance institutions (MFIs) have now been established in
the Basin.
The situation with regard to access to alternative income

opportunities is worse for pastoralists and, by virtue of their
remoteness and physical isolation, most pastoralists have little,
if any, access to non-farm sources of income. Livestock trading
and petty trade in consumer goods are the most common
alternative sources of income.
3.2.7 Poverty and Food Security

Poverty in the Basin is widespread and multi-dimensional (low
income, poor education and inadequate health services are
typical of this). Poverty is prevalent in both rural and urban
areas but, as 87% of the Basin’s population are located in rural
areas, poverty is primarily a rural problem. The causes of
poverty are varied and complex, but the following interrelated
factors contribute to the persistent poverty clearly evident in the
Basin:
 low levels of agricultural productivity and income (both

crops and livestock);
 high dependence of rainfed agriculture with only a very
small proportion of irrigated land;
 inadequate adoption of improved cropping practises and
productive farming systems;
 traditional (unproductive) livestock systems and livestock
husbandry practices;
 overabundance of livestock creating a conflict between food
and feed;
 lack of alternative income and employment opportunities in
the non-farm sector resulting in widespread unemployment
and underemployment;

 small farm size, land tenure insecurity, fragmentation of
holdings and landlessness;
 overexploitation of forest resources and land degradation in
the highlands;
 unsustainable population growth rate leading to land
degradation, reduction in farm size, underemployment,
urban migration, and increasing pressure on government’s
capacity to provide adequate education and health services;
 inadequate health facilities/services and poor health status;
 inadequate education and vocational training – both
coverage and quality;
 poor water supply and sanitary facilities in the rural areas
resulting in high incidence of disease and ill health;
 inadequate road network and poor marketing facilities in the
rural areas;
 lack of financial resources and access to micro-credit; and
 periodic droughts in the pastoral areas resulting in the
forced sale or loss of livestock.
In the pastoral areas, food insecurity is a major problem and a

significant proportion of the population rely on relief assistance
from external agencies. However, poverty in these areas is more
than just food insecurity, as the population also suffers from
poor access to health and education facilities and have few
opportunities to engage in income generating activities. The
densely populated areas, such as Sidama and Gedeo, are also
characterised as chronically food insecure areas due to small
farm size and inadequate resources to sustain the large rural
population.
Both the cultivators and pastoralists have developed several

survival strategies to deal with seasonal and disaster period
crises. Important strategies include the culture of sharing,
seasonal out-migration in search of wage employment, and
engagement in other off-farm activities. More short-term coping
mechanisms employed during times of stress include:
 leasing out of farmland;

 selling assets, e.g. livestock and household items;
 collecting and selling fuel wood;
 reducing consumption;

 eating wild foods such as roots and leaves;
 taking out loans to purchase food; and
 Permanent migration of household members to urban
centres.
In addition, pastoralists have several traditional survival

strategies and coping mechanisms which include: (i) strategic
herd movements; (ii) livestock sales; (iii) dietary changes (i.e.
grain consumption); and (iv) search for alternative livelihoods
outside herding.
3.2.8 Education
The education situation in the RVLB is poor, but similar to other
regions of Ethiopia. Literacy in rural areas is at 31%, with only
19% for females. In the urban areas literacy is better, at 74%
overall and 64% for females.
The net enrolment ratio (NER) in the RVLB is about the same as
the national average, at 37% in rural areas (with 35% girls) and
81% in urban areas (only slightly less at 80% for girls).
Oromiya and SNNPRS are both working toward improving

literacy conditions and producing a skilled human resource base
to increase productivity and bring changes in social and
economic development. School age enrolment has improved,
though there remains a need to improve the quality and
availability of education close to the community. Government is
working on these drawbacks, including trying to find ways to
hire more teachers and to reduce construction costs. Special
programmes were initiated to respond to the needs of rural and
pastoral areas where it is more difficult for children to go to
school. Accordingly, Alternative Basic Education Centres
(ABECs) are being built to reach out-of-school children and
children from pastoral areas. There are now 1.3 million children
in ABECs. Moreover, efforts will be made to strengthen
community and NGOs’ participation in the provision of primary
education, and to increase the participation of women. Emphasis
will also be placed on supporting children with special needs.

Ethiopia’s goal is to have all children attending primary school
by 2015 or earlier. In line with this, the Government’s
programme under PASDEP has continued to focus on improving
the quality of education to attract and keep children in school.
The main effort will still be on mobilizing more teachers and
providing capacity building programmes to upgrade their skills
through on-the-job training and summer courses.
There is considerable improvement in private sector

participation in investing in education, especially in the bigger
cities of the RVLB such as Awasa, Dila, Assela, Shashemene,
Arba Minch, and other towns.
3.2.9 Health
Water-borne diseases are the main health issues in Ethiopia,
including the RVLB. The main reason is that most people obtain
their water from unprotected sources such as streams, ponds,
wells, lakes etc. Poor water supply is the leading cause of
diarrhoea, typhoid, cholera and related diseases. The lack of
proper sanitation contributes to this as it is the root cause of
water contamination. Even the high density urban areas of the
RVLB do not have proper sanitation collection and disposal
systems. Lack of health education has resulted in a very limited
understanding of the link between hygiene and health among
the majority of the population, which further contributes to the
poor health.
Schistosomiasis and malaria are also water borne diseases

which are endemic to the RVLB. The spread of schistosomiasis is
partly due to the increasingly mobile population throughout the
basin. The introduction of dams in the RVLB has also
contributed to an increase of both schistosomiasis and malaria.
Nutrition and its health impacts are also a concern in the RVLB.
Ethiopia in general has one of the highest rates of chronic
malnutrition among countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with over
half of the children surveyed suffering from chronic
malnutrition. While statistics are not available for the RVLB
itself, it is expected that the situation is similar to, if not worse
than, the rest of Ethiopia, especially given the higher population
density and the greater degree of poverty.

Water supply, sanitation and hygiene are also closely linked with
malnutrition because of their direct impact on infectious
diseases, especially diarrhoea, which are important risk factors
in malnutrition. In turn, both are linked directly to poverty
Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are also a concern as they

are fairly prevalent in Ethiopia and in the RVLB, and can be
sufficiently severe to impede employment; they can also affect
fertility in women. Prevention of the transmission of STIs is
considered a priority in Ethiopia.
A particular environmental health issue in the RVLB is fluorosis,

caused by a high concentration of fluoride in water. It is
common in groundwater in many areas of the floor of the rift
valley, in volcanic deposits. It is considered that as much as 12%
of the population living in the rift region in Ethiopia are at risk
of fluorosis. To date the approach to dealing with the risk is to
find uncontaminated water even if it is at a great distance from
the population. This has worked reasonably well up to now, but
is an expensive option and success will decline as demands on
water grow. Fluoride in water can be treated, though it is
expensive (about ETB 13 per m3), but long distance pipelines are
also expensive. There is some evidence to suggest that deeper
water may be fluoride free and wells which go deep enough and
are sealed properly through the fluoride layers may yield good
water. This potential needs further investigation, which should
be conducted as a matter of urgency.
Health Services
Health services in the RVLB suffer from the same shortages as

those across Ethiopia. There is a shortage of human resources,
especially people trained in the field of vector borne disease
prevention and control. These include infectious disease
specialists, entomologists and sanitary engineers at various
levels. There is poor coverage of modern health care facilities
and those available are poorly staffed and poorly equipped with
diagnostic facilities. The health care facilities can not handle the
case loads imposed by the large population of the basin.
Hospitals are very few and so often far away from needs,
especially as the transport network is also poor, particularly in
the more remote areas.

As with all rural areas, the attitude of the community towards
family planning does not help the health situation. The resulting
rapid and uncontrolled population growth is a constraint in itself
and health care fails to keep up with demand.
Basic sanitary facilities in the basin are essentially non-existent

and those that are available are not properly used. Introduction
of sanitation and sanitary facilities into the community is one of
the major health-related problems to be solved. Action is needed
to create awareness of and knowledge about the advantages of
basic sanitation and hygiene in general. Awareness and
knowledge alone is insufficient and a behavioural change is
necessary. Similarly, changes in attitudes and behaviour toward
nutrition are other important constraints to be addressed.
3.2.10 Development Challenges

To summarise, within the sphere of socioeconomics in the RVLB
there are several challenges which must be faced to take
advantage of good development opportunities and to achieve
economic growth. These include:
 rapid population growth driven by high (though reducing)

fertility and declining mortality; productivity increases must
be much greater than population growth to achieve a good
level of growth in per capita RGDP
 the high dependency ratio (90 dependents for every 100
people of working age) which substantially lowers the RGDP
per capita
 rapid urbanisation; the urban population will grow from 1.12
million now to over 5 million by 2025, requiring huge public
sector investment in basic infrastructure
 increasing competition for scarce land and water resources,
exacerbated by ethnic tensions in some areas
 very low levels of skill and productivity in the labour force,
resulting from poor education services, with a rural literacy
rate of only about 35% and present school enrolment ratio of
only about 50%
 underemployment estimated as 60% of the current labour
force

 very poor attitude toward and consequent low status of
women, resulting in their having poor access to resources,
high work loads and low productivity
 specific issues in discrimination against women in some of
the ethnic groups
 social discrimination against certain artisans who are
necessary and relatively productive members of the
workforce
 poor security for disabled people due to ineffective policy
implementation and low financial resources at both
government and community levels
 population density already exceeding the carrying capacity
of the land under subsistence rainfed agricultural
production, leading to widespread food insecurity,
malnutrition, land and water degradation and uncontrolled
migration in large areas of the RVLB, particularly in the
highlands
 sub-division of land and increased family size, leading to
non-viable farm sizes, reduced benefits of scale, overuse of
poor quality land, all contributing to the poverty trap
 an outdated land tenure system which ties up productive
capital, acts as a disincentive to investment and inhibits both
new entrants to agriculture and the movement of excess
population from the land
 inadequate water supply and sanitation (for various reasons
including socioeconomic factors) leading to high and
increasing incidence of water borne diseases, poor health
and a high investment requirement for health services
 very low manufacturing base, employing only a fraction of
the available work force and which is not growing fast
enough to absorb the new work force entrants
These challenges are in some degree counterbalanced by the

following positive socioeconomic characteristics:
 a gradual decline in fertility is expected to lower the

dependency ratio from 90% now to 76% by 2035, though it
will require growth in the labour force relative to its
dependents, driven by changes in the economic structure of
the basin

 growth in RGDP per capita, the rate of which will depend on
productivity of the sectors and of the labour force, and on
the Master Plan Strategy adopted by government (see
Section 6 on Master Plan Development Strategies)
 improving social status and productivity of women with
increased school enrolment and expansion of civil rights
 the benefits of increasing urbanisation, which are likely to
drive down per capita costs of provision of services, and
encourage diversification of the manufacturing and services
sectors
 increasing homogeneity of religion and language, improved
education, and better defined human rights and
responsibilities due to education and the expansion of civil
authority
 a growing sense of cooperation in society, embedded in
cultural values and fostered through the cooperative and
microfinance movement, which is leading to greater market
power of producers, specialisation in production and access
to finance in a large section of the workforce.
3.3 Land Resources
3.3.1 Background
The following is a synopsis of the land resources of the RVLB.
For further detail on the land resources of the basin, the reader
is directed to the Final Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume 2, Annex
D, Land Use and Cover, and Annex B, Reconnaissance Soil
Survey. Annex B of this document, Land Evaluation provides a
detailed discussion of the land resources of the RVLB.
3.3.2 Topography
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin is the southern part of the Ethiopian
Rift Valley that runs from the Afar Depression in the north to
Chew Bahir and the Kenyan border in the south. The RVLB is
about 475 kilometres long and from 90 to 155 kilometres wide
trending generally NE-SW and NNE-SSW. The valley has a wide
altitudinal range, from 490 m above sea level at Chew Bahir in
the south to just about 4,200 m at Mount Ketcha in the
northeast.

In general, being a fault bounded valley, the topography is one
of a broad flat valley bottom bounded by hills and mountains
defining the basin boundaries. South of Lake Abaya, though, the
rift splits into two narrower valleys bounded by steeply sloping
hills and mountains but with rolling hills between the two
valleys. The rift margins are not clearly defined everywhere,
especially east of Shashemene and north of Sodo where the floor
rises gently towards the plateau.
The northern boundary of the RVLB is a poorly defined

watershed at an altitude of about 1,700 to 1,750 m separating it
from the Awash River Basin. The northern floor of the rift valley
was previously occupied by one large lake, of which Lakes
Ziway, Abiyata and Langano are remnants, occurring at altitudes
of around 1,640 m for Ziway and 1,580 m for the other lakes.
This broad flat plain is cut by the Mareko Ridge running from
Koshe to Aje to the west of the lakes.
In this northern area the valley floor plain extends much further
to the west than to the east. In the west it meets the boundary
hills to the west of Butajira, and in the east the plain meets the
troughs and plateaux of the Wonji Fault Belt (which separates
the rift valley proper from the Asella plain) to the east of Lakes
Ziway and Langano, before rising further to the Arsi mountains
of Chilalo and Ketcha, at 4,193 m, the highest point in the RVLB.
South of the northern lakes the central plain narrows around

Awasa, where it meets the Corbetti caldera, and Lake Awasa
which is at an altitude of 1,625 m. This caldera is defined by its
steep escarpments, even though the rift valley itself rises gently
to the plateau defining the western and eastern borders.
South of Awasa toward Lake Abaya the land becomes more

dissected as the rift floor slopes down gradually towards Lake
Abaya at an altitude of 1,169 m. The height of the rift floor is
greatest in this central part (possibly accounting for the high
degree of dissection) corresponding to the highest elevations of
the flanking plateaux surfaces; up to 3,300 m in the west and
2,500 m on the eastern side of the rift.

On the west side of Lake Abaya to Arba Minch the high
mountains of the western highlands slope steeply down to the
lake. East of the lake where the rift splits into two the Gelana
valley is separated from the Chamo rift valley by the Amaro
highlands. To the east the dissected uplands get gradually
higher.
South of Lake Chamo the RVLB is less discernable as a rift

valley as the sides become progressively more dissected and
large upthrust mountains occur in the valley. In the east the
dissected mountains peter out south of Agere Mariyam while the
Amaro Mountains reach a height of 3,200 m. West of Lake
Chamo the mountains and hills of Gamo Gofa form a basin and
range topography being cut by infilled alluvial valleys of the
Bele and Weito rivers.
South of the confluence of the Weito and Segen rivers the

topography flattens appreciably although the steep-sided
escarpments with alluvial fans create a more well-defined rift
valley again. The lower Weito river flood plain is an area of
active sedimentation with alluvial fans on the valley sides and
fluviatile and lacustrine sediments in the main valley. Chew
Bahir itself (at an altitude of 490 m) is now a large salt flat with
an area of marshland and wetland associated with the Weito
river delta to the north of it.
3.3.3 Geology
The RVLB is underlain by Pre-Cambrian basement gneisses and
granites which, over the majority of the area (north of Lake
Chamo at 60N), are overlain by more recent volcanic basalts and
ignimbrites (consolidated ash flows). Alluvium occurs along river
valleys with lacustrine deposits around the major lakes.
The pre-Cambrian basement rocks crop out south of Arba Minch

where the extensively migmatised gneisses and very occasional
granites and granodiorites form the high ground with recent
alluvium in the broad valley bottoms. Very alkaline early Tertiary
(Oligocene and Miocene) basalts often overlie the basement and
occupy the highest ground.
Most of the northern part of the RVLB is comprised of Pliocene

ignimbrites interbedded with tuff and pumice. The only

extensive basalt is at the area's margins, around Butajira and
Asella. Numerous recent (Pliocene to Holocene) volcanoes occur
in this northern area with resultant layers of lava, ash and
pumice. Around the northern lakes these volcanics are
interbedded with lacustrine siltstones and sandstones. The most
recent deposits are alluvial, around lakes Chamo and Abaya, in
the Segen and Weito valleys and as salt flats south of Chew
Bahir.
Faulting is apparent along the edge of the rift valley but

elsewhere step faulting is visible in the Gurage Mountains.
Uplifted fault blocks are responsible for the Amaro Mountains
and others. The Wonji fault belt, which extends from south of
lake Chamo to east of lake Ziway, is very recent in origin and is
associated with thermal activity and hot springs.
3.3.4 Soil Types

A total of 10 Major Soil Groups comprising 13 Soil Units have
been mapped as 39 Soil Mapping Units, which are based on the
main soil type, associated soils, texture and slope.
In the northwest of the basin the soils are largely Eutric and
Chromic Cambisols (young soils with poorly developed horizons
but well drained and relatively fertile) and Haplic and Chromic
Luvisols (soils showing evidence of clay translocation, well
drained, relatively fertile, deep and fine to medium textured) in
the hills and footslopes with Eutric Vertisols (Dark cracking
clays, poorly drained but fertile) on the flatter plains between
Butajira and Mareko. Between Mareko and just to the west of
Lake Ziway the soils are again Luvisols with patches of
Leptosols (very shallow soils) associated with the incised Meki
River.
Around Lake Ziway the soils are Vitric Andosols (derived from
volcanic materials, generally well drained, deep and medium to
coarse textured) with Calcaric and Eutric Fluvisols (developed
from recent alluvial deposits, imperfectly drained, deep and fine
to medium textured) associated with the Meki delta. In the
northeast of the basin on the Arsi plateau, the soils are again
primarily Luvisols but with appreciable areas of Rhodic Nitisols
(soils with a uniform clay distribution and a nuggety structure,

well drained, fertile, deep and fine to medium textured) and
some areas of Vertisols.
Around the northern lakes of Shala, Abiyata and Langano the

soils are Haplic Solonetz (Sodic soils) with a small area of
Cambisols between lakes Abiyata and Shala. Between Shala and
Awasa the soils are Vitric Andosols with shallow Cambisols on
the Corbetti caldera. West of this there is a band of sandy Haplic
Arenosols (sandy soils, relatively infertile but deep and coarse
textured).
South of Awasa the soils of the hills of the eastern basin are
dominated by Luvisols to Cheleleka where they change to
Rhodic Nitisols which occur to the southern boundary at Yabelo.
The Nitisols are interspersed by Fluvisols and Vertisols in the
lower lying valley bottoms.
To the west the Bilate basin is characterized by Cambisols,

Fluvisols and Leptosols while the western hills are also largely
Nitisols from about Shone in the north to Kemba and Bonke in
Gamo Gofa in the south.
There are small patches of Fluvisols and Vertisols associated

with alluvial fans around Lakes Abaya and Chamo in the south.
The majority of the southern uplands, including the Gamo Gofa
hills and around Konso, are Cambisols with small patches of
Nitisols around Karat Konso itself and areas of Vertisols around
Teltele. The Weito and Segen valleys are Fluvisols and Arenosols
while there is a large area of shallow Leptosols to the east of
Key Afer. The lower Weito valley is dominated by the Solonchaks
(saline soils) of Chew Bahir with the wetlands of the Weito river
delta to the north and sodic Solonetz and shallow Leptosols to
the south and east.
3.3.5 Land Cover and Land Use

The land cover/land use of the RVLB is dominated by Cultivated
Land which comprises 40% of the land area and by Shrubland
which comprises 39% of the land area, as shown in Table 3.1.
Land Cover is shown on Figure 3.1 and Land Use on Figure 3.2
below.

Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.2: RVLB land
cover in 2007
Land cover Area % of
2 % of
(km ) land
basin
area
Annual Cultivation 14,80
27.9 30.1
(Intensive and Moderate) 3
Perennial Cultivation 4,976 9.4 10.1
Mechanised Farms 161 0.3 0.3
19,94
Total Cultivation 37.6 39.6
0
Urban 73 0.1 0.1
Afro-Alpine vegetation 421 0.8 0.9
Forest 1,717 3.2 3.5
Woodland 3,858 7.3 7.7
Riparian Vegetation 549 1.0 1.1
19,49
Shrubland 36.8 38.8
4
Grassland 1,291 2.4 2.6
Marsh 1,185 2.2 2.4
Bare Land 1,854 3.5 3.7
50,38
Total land 100.0
1
Water 2,653 5.0
53,03
RVLB Total 100.0
4

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.2: Major land
cover types in the RVLB

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.3: Land use in
the RVLB

Intensively cultivated land is particularly concentrated in the
north of the basin, excepting around the northern lakes where
moderately cultivated land in association with open woodland
and shrubland predominates. There are some small areas of
forestry (both natural and plantation) on the basin flanks around
Butajira and Shashemene and the northeastern boundary is the
only occurrence of Afro-alpine shrubland in the basin.
Intensive cultivation of perennial crops is dominant on the basin

sides in the centre of the basin between Hosaina and Sodo in
the west and from Kofele almost to Hagere Mariyam in the east.
South of Awasa the centre of the basin is dominated by
shrubland with some small areas of moderately cultivated land
and areas of bare eroded soil with scattered vegetation.
The hills of Gamo Gofa in the southwest are moderately

cultivated in association with shrubland in the highlands and an
association of shrubland and woodland in the lowlands. To the
east of Lakes Abaya and Chamo shrubland predominates with
some areas of marshland in valley bottoms and moderate
cultivation and open woodland around the Amaro Mountains.
South of Lake Chamo towards Konso the land is a mixture of

intensive cultivation around Soyema, and moderate cultivation
with shrubland and woodland in the hills around Karat Konso.
The Segen river valley is largely dense and open shrubland with
riverine vegetation close to the river.
South of Konso the land cover is mainly shrubland, though with

bushed grassland on the basin boundary north of Yabelo and
appreciable areas of moderate cultivation around Teltele. The
lower Weito valley is dominated by shrubland in the north and
on the flanks with a large area of marshland and the salt flats of
Chew Bahir in the south. North from Weito State Farm the land
cover is a mixture of mainly dense shrubland and open
woodland on the valley floors with dense and open woodland on
the hills.
3.3.6 Soil Erosion and Soil and Water Conservation

The degree of soil erosion in the RVLB has been assessed using
a number of complementary approaches including the Revised
Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an erosion hazard

assessment based on soil depth, visual observation and
household surveys and a comparison of RUSLE results with
measured sediment rates.
The RUSLE produced four areas of erosion potential; extreme,

covering 17% of the basin, high covering 47%, moderate
covering 26% and low covering 10% of the basin. To emphasise
the point, this means almost two thirds of the RVLB is an area of
high erosion potential or worse. The RVLB erosion potential
based on RUSLE is shown in Figure 3.3 below.
Areas of extreme erosion potential are associated with steep

slopes and cultivated areas that are dominated by mixed cereals
and maize, and sorghum mono-cropping. This includes the
central of southwestern, eastern and the northwestern areas of
the basin including the eastern side of Asela, Werabe and Silte,
east of Lanfero, east and west of Lake Awasa, north of Hossaina,
the central highlands of Damot Weyede, the highlands of
Kondaltiti, extensive areas west of Lake Chamo, most of
Dirashe, the highlands of Hammer and Amaro, and the
highlands of Yirga Chefe, Bule and Wenago.
Areas of high erosion potential have similar land characteristics

to those of extreme areas including Leptosols and Cambisols on
slopes 8 to 15%, Andosols on all slopes and Luvisols and Nitisols
on slopes greater than 15%. It occurs in the southern middle
basin, the central highlands, and the eastern and western sides
of the upper basin. In general high to severe erosion occurs over
extensive areas with slopes greater than 8%.
Moderate and slight erosion potential areas are concentrated in

the lowlands, plateaux and plain areas with denser vegetation
cover are identified as areas with such degrees of erosion.
The highest degree of current erosion occurs in similar areas,

particularly the Bilate River basin, east and west of Lake Ziway,
parts of the Gelana and Sile and Chamo watersheds. The main
contributing factors are steep slopes, highly erodible volcanic
soils, the predominance of cereal cultivation and a higher
population density. Shallow to very shallow soils are an
additional factor in places.

The next highest area of current erosion extends from the
southern part of Lake Shala to the southern end of the basin in
Teltele. In addition parts of Kulifo, western Ziway and Gidabo
and most of the steeply cultivated areas in Alaba have similar
degrees of erosion. Deforestation, highly fragile and erodible
silty soils and naturally susceptible Andosols, coupled with high
population pressure are the major factors with shallow soils and
steep slopes additional factors in Konso and Bako-Gazer.
A comparison of indicative RUSLE results with measured

sediment rates in 11 sub-basins (excluding the Upper Gelana)
indicated that the RUSLE results (assuming a 10% sediment
delivery ratio) were broadly accurate with SDRs ranging from
7.6 to 18.7% with a mean of 11.8%.

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.4: Estimated
erosion potential

The household survey indicated that 85% of households were
aware of erosion and that greater than 70% of households
practiced some form of soil and water conservation, primarily
agronomic and structural measures, and that there was no
awareness gap.
Soil and Water Conservation activities in the basin are either

introduced or indigenous although there is very little
information available as to their actual extent. Recent soil and
water conservation interventions have been implemented by
communities under the Safety Net Programme; a programme
supporting the implementation of public works such as soil and
water conservation on communal lands on a sub-watershed
basis in food insecure weredas. Plans for the development of
community watersheds in all food insecure weredas are
supposed to be in place but the attention given to soil and water
conservation is negligible compared with agricultural
development.
The MoARD and WFP implemented MERET programme targets

the most severely degraded areas and is in place in six weredas
within the RVLB: Alaba, Damot Gale, Damot Weyede, Humbo,
Chencha, Konso and Sodo.
Indigenous soil and water conservation measures are most

apparent in Konso, Dirashe and Humbo weredas. Farmers in
Konso are very innovative in overcoming the problems of low
and erratic rainfall, constructing stone terraces, tied ridges,
trash lines, and applying crop diversification and agro-forestry
techniques on their farmland. Techniques are related as much to
cultural inheritance as to protection, and are site specific and
often complex in nature, a variety of them being used on the
same plot. Secure land use rights favour their application.
In highland areas of Welayita and Hadiya, agro-forestry and

multiple cropping are very common. Most of the traditional
measures are agronomic and vegetative, and aimed at
diversifying and integrating the benefits from both annual and
perennial crops. Trash-lines are commonly used throughout the
basin, particularly in the lowlands, for the reasons mentioned
above. Farmers in enset farming areas traditionally develop soil
heaps around enset plant as a means of storing adequate

quantities of water for the plant, and protecting the land from
erosion.
3.3.7 National Parks and Protected Areas

There are four classifications of Protected Areas within the
basin: National Parks, Wildlife Sanctuaries, Wildlife and Game
Reserves and Controlled Hunting Areas. In addition there are a
number of Important Bird Areas but they do not have any official
status. The National Parks are identified on Figure 3.2 above as
part of the land use classification. Other protected areas
including the Controlled Hunting Areas are not shown as they
are not really operated any longer.
The two National Parks are the Abiyata Shala Lakes National
Park in the north of the basin and Nech Sar National Park in the
south of the basin to the east of Arba Minch.
The Abiyata Shala Lakes NP was established in 1970 and covers

a total area of 887 km2 of which 405 km2 is land and 482 km2 is
water. The performance of the park is low, mainly as a result of
poor management. There are now dozens of villages inside the
park territory and there are other major threats, including
environmental degradation most evident in vegetation and
wildlife decline, increasing livestock numbers, the massive
water level decline of Lake Abiyata, which has resulted in the
loss of fish stocks, declining water fowl numbers, plus sand
extraction and a soda ash factory, all within the park.
Nechisar National Park was proposed in 1967 and delineated in

1970 and 1975. It covers an area of 514 km 2 (land 436 km2,
water 78 km2) and was, from 2005 until recently, managed by
African Parks Limited in a public-private partnership with
SNNPRS and the MoARD. The partnership was due to last 25
years but, following a disagreement over pastoral access and
use rights, African Parks have withdrawn and the park is now
managed by the regional authorities. The performance of the
park has been better than that of Abiyata-Shala Lakes Park, but
it does suffer from similar pressures, including encroachment
and overgrazing by armed pastoralists, agricultural land
development and settlement wood collection by local
communities. The loss of African Parks as managers likely

means it will gravitate toward the same fate as Abiyata-Shala
Lakes Park.
The Wildlife Sanctuary is the Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest

Sanctuary to the west of Lake Awasa covering an area of 36.4
km2 and managed by the Wildlife Conservation Department.
Being a sanctuary implies undisturbed conditions and the
prohibition of human settlement, but threats include settlement,
fire, grazing, wood collection, and other human activities that
have a significant impact on the area.
The Chelbi Game Reserve is located in the lower Weito valley,

south of the Konso-Jinka road and includes Chew Bahir and the
Weito delta marshland to the north. The area has been mapped
as covering the whole of the lower Weito valley and extending
into Omo-Gibe and Genale-Dawa river basins, but it is also
documented as having an area of 4,212 ha, a much smaller area.
In any case the area is not really managed. Activities that take
place within the area are mainly decided by social factors rather
than by wildlife management needs. They are designated as
protected areas on paper but they are otherwise not protected
or managed.
There are four Controlled Hunting Areas (CHAs) namely Aluto,

Munessa, Boyo Swamp and Segen although only Aluto and
Munessa are operational. Aluto is located in Adami Tulu and
covers 281 ha and Munessa, to the east of Lake Langano, covers
110 ha. Each has hunting operator concessions which are used
every year. However, there are apparently no animals to hunt.
The Ethiopian Wildlife and Natural History Society (EWNHS)

designated seven Important Bird Areas within the RVLB;
Abiyata Shala NP, Lake Langano, Lake Ziway, Lake Awasa, Boyo
Wetland, Lake Chew Bahir, Konso-Segen and Nech Sar NP, but
although these areas have been identified as IBAs, the
conservation agencies have not changed the status of the sites.

3.4 Water Resources
3.4.1 Background
The following is a synopsis of the water resources situation in
the RVLB. For further detail on the hydrology of the basin, the
reader is directed to the Final Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume 1,
Annex A, Climate and Hydrology. For further detail on the water
resources modelling which has estimated the water resources of
the basin, refer to the Final Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume 1,
Annex F, Water Resources and Modelling. For further detail on
hydrogeology and groundwater resources, refer to the Final
Phase 1 Report, Volume 1, Annex B, Hydrogeology.
Annex A of this document, Water Resources and Modelling, also

details the water resources modelling carried out for this
Master Plan study and its results. Annex A also contains a more
detailed discussion on hydrology and the groundwater resource
of the basin.
3.4.2 General Features

The graben structure of the RVLB has created a steep sided
valley with very high elevation differences. As in all areas, the
temperature and rainfall of the RVLB tend to vary as a function
of elevation and, in consequence, so do relative humidity and
potential evapotranspiration. The top of the rift valley on the
east and west sides is therefore cooler, wetter and with lower
evapotranspiration rates, and hotter, drier and with higher
evapotranspiration in the central lowlands.
3.4.3 Climate, Rainfall and Evaporation

There is a clear influence of altitude upon rainfall amounts.
Broadly these vary from 1250 mm at the top of the valley scarps
to less than 750 mm in the basin, the pattern being fairly
consistent along the length of the RVLB system. On the valley
bottom, average annual rainfall varies from approximately
400 mm at Chew Bahir in the extreme south of the basin,
through approximately 700 mm near the northern lakes. In
contrast, average annual rainfall approaches 2000 mm near
Gerese, west of Lake Chamo, and also at Yirga Chefe, east of
Lake Abaya, both on the higher edges of the basin. Around Yirga
Chefe, however, annual rainfalls rise, in response to local

altitudes of 3000-3500 metres, to exceed 1750 mm. South of
Chamo towards Chew Bahir the mean annual rainfall decreases
sharply to reach only 450 mm at Konso. The average annual
rainfall pattern is shown on Figure 3.4.
Two principal patterns of rainfall season are apparent in the

RVLB. In the northern sub-basins there is a single wet season
from April to September which changes to a bimodal pattern
towards the south. North of Lake Abaya, the main rains occur
July through September, with a secondary peak in March or
April. South of Lake Abaya, the main rains occur earlier in the
year, between March and May. On average at Arba Minch, half
the annual rainfall has fallen by the end of May, whereas it is not
until early July that this occurs in the region around Ziway.
However, 75% of the annual total has fallen at Ziway by mid
August, but does not occur at Arba Minch until the end of
September. This switch in the arrival rate of rainfall within the
first and second halves of the wet season is caused by a
characteristically dry July and August which becomes
increasingly apparent to the south of Abaya. Certainly in the
extreme south the rainfall climate could legitimately be viewed
as having two distinct wet seasons.
Annual rainfall varies from a low of 300 mm at Chew Bahir,

through 550 mm for the northerly lakes (nearer to 1600 masl) to
about 1600 mm around the 3000 masl contour. The area around
Yirga Chefe, in the eastern highlands, is exceptionally wet with
annual rainfall of nearly 2000 mm and is particularly noted for
its coffee.
This partitioning of the wet season towards the south coincides

with an increase in the variability of the timing of rainfall and
the start and end of the rains. This increasing inter-annual
variability of the seasonal distribution of rainfall towards the
south directs attention to an important aspect of drought, which
is that a drought episode cannot be viewed solely as a deficiency
in rainfall amount. With regard to agriculture, any significant
delay in the arrival of the rains is crucial, and although the total
annual rainfall may be normal, an unusual seasonal distribution
can cause severe disruption to the agricultural economy.

Annual average potential evapotranspiration varies from
approximately 1200 mm in the northeast of the basin to
approximately 1900 mm at Chew Bahir. Throughout the rift
valley floor, from Lake Ziway to Lake Chamo, the average values
are typically on the order of 1550 mm.
Annual average temperatures vary from approximately

27 degrees centigrade on the valley floor near Chew Bahir to a
low of approximately 13 degrees centigrade at higher
elevations, particularly in the northeast of the basin.

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.5: Annual
average rainfall

3.4.4 Surface Water Resources of the RVLB
The hydrology of the RVLB can be considered as four main
surface water sub-basins:
 The Ziway-Shala sub-basin (14,477 km2) which comprises the

catchments of Lake Ziway, Lake Langano, Lake Abiyata and
Lake Shala. Lake Shala is generally separate but under high
flow conditions some water will transfer to Lake Abiyata.
 The Awasa sub-basin (1,403 km2) which is hydrologically
separate from the others but includes the former Lake
Cheleleka, which is now mainly wetland, with grazing and
even agriculture now encroaching.
 The Abaya-Chamo sub-basin (18,118 km2) which is the
catchments of Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo. There has been
some flow from Chamo to the Segen River in the past when
lake levels have been extremely high, but it has been so long
since this occurred that it is no longer considered to be one
catchment.
 Chew Bahir sub-basin (19,029 km2) which is the catchment
of Chew Bahir, mostly comprising the Weito River and Segen
River catchments.
This sub-basin delineation is for purposes of discussion. In other

parts of this report the sub-basins may be delineated differently,
also for ease of discussion.
The total surface water resource of the RVLB is estimated at

5,312 Mm3/year. Table 3.2 below shows the breakdown by sub-
basin.
Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.3: Surface water

resources of the RVLB
Sub-basin Lake Total Total
system resource resource
(Mm /year) (%)
3
Ziway- Ziway 755

Shala Abiyata 200
Langano 258
Shala 340

Total 1553 29%
Awasa Total 143 3%
Abaya- Abaya 2512
Chamo
Chamo 506
Total 3018 57%
Chew Bahir Total 598 11%
RVLB Total 5312
The values in the table are calculated from total annual average
river flow into the lake systems under ‘natural’ conditions
without human abstractions.
The major rivers tend to rise on the elevated east and west sides
of the Rift Valley and flow into the terminal lakes which make up
the above sub-basins. The RVLB is a hydrologically closed
system, with no surface flow from the terminal lakes. There may
be groundwater outflows but there is insufficient information to
be definitive about this or to quantify it.
3.4.5 Lake Depth, Volume and Resources

There are seven main lakes in the RVLB, namely Ziway, Abiyata,
Langano, Shala, Awasa, Abaya and Chamo. Chew Bahir is still
often referred to as a lake but is, in fact, a salt pan which rarely
holds any water.
Bathymetric surveys have been carried out on all of the six lakes
at various times. The earliest were Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo,
carried out as part of a doctoral dissertation by Dr. Sileshi
Bekele at Arba Minch University, both done in 2000. Lake Ziway
was done in 2005 by MoWR. Lake Awasa was done in 2006 by
SNNPRS administration. The data from these surveys was
collected and analysed during Phase 1. Surveys for the three
other lakes, Abiyata, Shala and Langano, were carried out as
part of this current study. The basic characteristics of the lakes
are given in Table 3.3. These areas and depths are tentative as
survey data has not yet been processed. The table will be
updated in the final version of this report.

Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.4:
Characteristics of Rift Valley lakes
Lake Area Max
(km )
2
depth )
Ziway 423 9
Abiyata 166 10
Langano 233 42
Shala 310 252
Awasa 93 23
Abaya 1095 25
Chamo 315 14
In total, there is a considerable volume of water tied up in these

lakes. However, the lakes cannot be considered a resource in
themselves, for several reasons. One reason is that the lakes are
highly vulnerable to changes in the water use regime. All lakes
are already in some state of decline or at least a precarious
balance. Careful consideration must be given to any further
abstraction from any of the lakes or from the rivers that feed
them. A second reason is that the water quality of most of the
lakes is very poor, either saline or alkaline and is not suitable for
use in irrigation or in domestic or many industrial water
supplies.
3.4.6 Water Quality of the RVLB Lakes

Table 3.4 shows selected water quality parameters from each of
the lakes.
Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.5: Selected

water quality parameters of the RVLB lakes
Paramet Ziw Abiya Shal Langa Awa Aba Cha
er ay ta a no sa ya mo
pH 8.37 9.60 9.80 9.04 9.00 9.07 9.48
EC 47,91 46,0 1,21
(µS/cm) 453 5 75 1,937 867 8 1,966
6,47
Na (mg/l) 61 7,520 5 390 165 234 428
F (mg/l) 1.6 220.0 188. 9.1 8.7 8.1 9.1

0
SAR 3.0 653 267 41.5 10.2 15.7 27.0
SAR – Sodium Absorption Ratio - is an indicator based on several parameters
specifically showing its suitability for irrigation. SAR of 10 is considered the
maximum for irrigation.
Table 3.4 indicates clearly the differences between the lakes.

Lake Ziway is (currently) of reasonably good quality with
respect to the other lakes. It is not saline or alkaline, fluoride
concentration is within both Ethiopian and WHO standards and
the SAR shows it is suitable for irrigation.
However, as discussed in more detail in Section 5.2.3 below, the

water resources of the Lake Ziway basin are already overused
and the situation is unsustainable. Any further abstractions from
Lake Ziway or its feeding rivers will likely be disastrous. This is
mainly shown in the fact that, since the mid 1980s, Lake Abiyata
water levels (fed from Lake Ziway through the Bulbula River)
have been in steady decline. The magnitude of the decline is not
explainable through the rainfall record, which indicates that
water abstractions are the main cause of the decline. Such
abstractions are principally associated with irrigation.
While Lake Ziway quality is fairly good now, there is no control

over effluent discharges into the lake. Several stakeholders have
expressed concern about the effluent from the flower growing
operations, as they are high users of agricultural chemicals.
There is no information available on their effluents but regular
monitoring of Lake Ziway is becoming more important to
identify the problem before it becomes serious. Secondly, if
water abstractions continue to grow for irrigation schemes and
smallholder abstractions, Ziway water levels will decline further.
As flows from Ziway into the Bulbula River reduce, evaporation
will become the main outlet from Ziway, making it a closed lake
like the others in the basin, and leading to a rise in its salinity.
Table 3.4 shows that Lakes Abiyata and Shala are highly saline-
alkaline-sodic waters, containing high pH, high EC and sodium.
SAR and fluoride values are extreme. Neither can support
fisheries. Abiyata used to support one, but the decreasing water
quality has killed them off and driven away the aquatic birds
that once fed on them. Lake Shala has very low levels of

ecological productivity, partly because of its great depth and the
consequent very shallow productive photic layer in the upper
waters coupled with lack of mixing of bottom sediments.
Lake Awasa has a moderately high pH and an SAR of 10.2,

which is slightly above the threshold of tolerance for irrigation.
Many smallholder farmers are currently using its waters for
irrigation. It is not known what their yields and other crop
characteristics are like, and if they are affected by the marginal
quality water. Fluoride levels are well beyond both Ethiopian
and WHO standards for drinking water. Lake Awasa is sensitive
to abstractions, but modelling studies indicate it may be able to
irrigate something less than 1000 ha sustainably.
Both Lakes Abaya and Chamo are alkaline-saline lakes, with the
dominant ions being bicarbonate, sodium and chloride. The
concentration of ions is greater in Lake Chamo, presumably due
to lower freshwater inputs, high evaporation rates and longer
residence time of water in the lake. Lake Abaya is permanently
coloured brown or red-brown due to suspended ferrous
hydroxide particulates in the water. This water colour restricts
productivity in the lake to the upper metre or so, which in turn
constrains the fishery in the lake. SAR is higher in Chamo than
in Abaya but both are beyond the acceptable limit for irrigation.
Fluoride in both exceeds the Ethiopian and WHO limits for
useable drinking water.
In summary, the water quality of most of the lakes precludes

their use as water resources, with two exceptions. Ziway has the
water quality for use in drinking (with treatment) and irrigation
but is already being overabstracted. Lake Awasa is of marginal
quality for irrigation, but is very sensitive to changes in water
use regime and only very minimal further irrigation
development based upon it is possible. Current smallholder
abstraction is unrestricted and may have a negative impact if
allowed to increase.
Water from the rivers feeding the lakes is the only resource
available, as discussed in Section 3.4.3 and in Table 3.1 above.
There may be some cases where lake water may be used for
domestic water with proper treatment. The treatment required
would be similar to desalination technologies and therefore

expensive, but may become necessary as populations grow and
greater demands are placed on the water resources of the basin.
3.4.7 Groundwater Resources of the RVLB

The nature of the geological formations within RVLB and the
intense tectonic disturbance that has affected them form a
significant influence over the distribution and disposition of
groundwater resources within the basin.
The basin is comprised of volcanic (50%), sedimentary (25%),

and crystalline strata (25%). Groundwater storage and flow
occurs through primary permeability and porosity in the
sediments and in the volcanic and crystalline strata and results
from secondary processes - principally fracturing, jointing and
weathering. As a result, development of aquifer systems in these
strata may be discreet and very localised; there may be little
interconnectivity and there may be little groundwater storage.
Within the basin as a whole, major deep seated structural

features such as regional fault systems may provide
interconnection between these (otherwise) discreet units.
Groundwater is recharged by direct rainfall to permeable

ground, (generally greatest in the basin margins where rainfall
is relatively high), via river systems and lakes and from
overlying or adjacent groundwater bodies.
Groundwater discharge is from springs, either into surface

waters (supporting base flow), directly into lakes, to the surface
(e.g. wetlands, where evapotranspirative losses may be high)
and into adjacent (or overlying) groundwater bodies.
The movement between points of recharge and discharge,

typically dominated by fractures and fissures, is often limited in
geographical extent. Groundwater movement through shallow
groundwater systems may be relatively rapid, as there is little
groundwater storage available.
In general terms, the groundwater flow system is in parallel

with the surface water flow - from valley sides to valley floor.
Within the valley itself, groundwater flow is also dictated by the
relative elevations between the individual sub-basins.

In certain circumstances, due to the significant heads generated
between the predominant areas of recharge in the highland
areas, and deep seated, regionally extensive fracture systems,
groundwater may flow at greater depth, emerging to and
beneath the rift valley floor.
The hydrogeological complexity is such that the groundwater

contribution to the overall water resource balance varies
considerably throughout the basin. There are complex
relationships between groundwater recharge, flow, storage and
discharge and the surface water system. The frequent
occurrence of groundwater as discreet bodies, which may not be
readily identified, makes evaluation of the available
groundwater resource extremely difficult.
However, in order to provide at least some indication of the

overall level of this resource, some very simple analysis has
been carried out, based on a proportion of the direct
groundwater recharge from rainfall. This data is summarised in
Table 3.5, and its derivation further detailed in Annex A. The
estimates are given by Development Zone (DZ), which is the
basic planning unit for the Master Plan (DZs are described in
Section 6).
Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.6: Estimated

direct groundwater recharge and resource
availability
Developme Estimated annual Estimated
nt zone direct groundwater
groundwater resource
recharge availability
(Mm3/year) (Mm3/year)
1 146 7
2 119 6
3 286 14
4 180 9
5 51 3
6 167 8
7 65 3
8 65 3

Basin Total 1,080 53
The resources estimate must be considered a first estimate only

in order to help inform the master planning process. As more
information is gathered, and more proactive groundwater
resources management processes are put in place, these
estimates may be revised, both on a local basis (e.g. the
resources to a town supply well field) and more regionally (e.g.
by defined groundwater bodies or sub basin and smaller
divisions).
3.5 Energy Resources
3.5.1 Background
The following is a synopsis of the energy resources of the RVLB.
For further detail on the various aspects of energy in the basin,
the reader is directed to the Final Phase 1 Report, Part II,
Volume 3, Annex A, Hydropower, Annex B, Geothermal Energy,
Annex C, Alternative Energy Sources and Annex D, Energy and
Power Planning.
3.5.2 Energy Demands

Present energy demands are estimated at 132.3 Peta Joules (PJ).
Of this about 91% are household demands, with the next highest
being public services at 5%. Other sectors are almost
insignificant, totalling together only 4%. The share of energy
needs by sector will change over the Master Plan period, with
industry rising and household falling as a percentage by 2035.
However the extent of change will depend on which of the four
Strategies (see Section 6) RVLB development follows.
Most of the energy needs are met by fuel wood (84%) with the
next largest being animal wastes (5%) and diesel also near 5%.
As with distribution by sector, energy sources will also change
depending on which development Strategy the RVLB follows.
Currently, grid-based electricity meets only 0.5% of total
demand. As the Universal Electricity Access Plan (UEAP) is
carried out, this figure will rise significantly.

3.5.3 Biomass
Biomass energy is that derived from wood, animal dung, crop
residue, and oily trees and crops. Woody biomass (essentially
fuel wood) is the single largest source, representing about 84%
of the total energy requirement.
Woody biomass in natural stands (woodlands, shrublands, and

forests) is the largest source of fuel, followed by plantation trees
in homesteads, farmlands and communal plots. Natural stands
are declining in the RVLB due to overuse. In the Oromiya part of
the basin forest cover is down to 1.7 to 3.1% of total land area,
with better woodland and shrubland cover (10 to 75% of total
land cover, depending on wereda). In the SNNPRS forest cover
is as little as 0.1% in Derashe Special Wereda but up to 9.8% in
Sidamo Zone. Woodland and shrubland cover in the SNNPRS
ranges from a low of 2% of land area in Gedeo to almost 80% in
Amaro and Burji.
Comparing supply and demand for woody biomass:
 for the Oromiya part of the basin, supply is only about one
third of demand
 for SNNPRS supply is less than one fifth of demand.
Crop residues have begun to replace fuelwood in many zones of

the RVLB because of diminishing access to fuelwood, due in turn
to:
 agricultural expansion reducing forest and

woodland/shrubland area;
 the high and growing populations and their demands for
wood products for fuel as well as industrial uses, and house
construction.
In many of the highly cultivated zones crop residues constitute

major sources of fuel.
With an estimated 8.7 million cattle in the RVLB, there is a lot of

dung produced; about 4.7 million tonnes annually. Use of dung
as fuel varies across weredas because of the distribution of
cattle, but as much as 50% of it is now used as fuel, mainly

because it is increasingly difficult to obtain fuel wood or other
alternatives.
Both crop residues and animal dung would be better recycled

into the soil to improve fertility, reduce soil degradation and
improve crop yields, rather than being burned as fuel. Given
that competition for land creates a conflict with increasing land
under forest cover, and hence access to fuel wood, other sources
need to be considered.
Adding biodiesel crops to a farm mix, moving some energy

needs to wind and solar power, as well as reducing demands
through the UEAP will all have positive impacts on the
competing demands for soil improvement and energy (see
sections below on these alternative energy sources).
3.5.4 Hydropower
At present hydropower contributes only 0.5% of total energy
demand. This will rise to at least 15% over the Master Plan
period as the UEAP comes into effect. Probably all of the
electricity will come from outside the basin because there is
limited potential for development of hydropower production in
the RVLB. The main constraint is the water resources. A 1990
Study (EVDSA, WAPCOS, 1990) estimated a potential hydro
generating capacity of 142 MW, but this has been reduced in
previous studies. From our Phase 1 studies, the development
potential is limited to a few sites which are identified with their
generation potential as:
Segen River 2.2 MW

Upstream Site
RV3-A on Segen 43.5 MW
River
RV9 on Bilate River 6.8 MW
Gelana on Gelana 15.0 MW
River
Total Potential 67.5 MW
A total of 31 MW of small and micro hydropower development

potential has also been identified within the RVLB, over 31
locations.

These estimates show that there is some potential for
developing hydropower in the RVLB. However it is likely that
the cost of producing it would be high compared with planned
hydropower projects in other basins of Ethiopia. Given the great
potential within Ethiopia as a whole, but not in the RVLB, it is
unlikely these small local schemes would prove cost effective.
Also, given the fact that other, better schemes are either in
process or planned, it is unlikely that government investment
would be directed to the RVLB.
3.5.5 Geothermal Energy

Geothermal energy production potential in the RVLB is
estimated to be about 60 MW. At present 7 MW has been
developed at the Alutu-Langano power station. With the
appropriate investment, production there could be expanded to
15 MW within 3 to 5 years from now and to 30 MW within a
further 3 to 5 years. There is potential for about another 30 MW
are in the Corbetti and Abaya areas.
GSE and EEPCO have analysed the geology and hydrogeology of

the RVLB and have identified the above as areas for geothermal
power development. However, with the exception of Alutu
Langano, potential has yet to be proven. Focused exploration of
these areas would quantify the geothermal production potential
of the RVLB. This would be followed by studies to determine
potential and costs of production. The studies should be done in
a stepped progression, with one prefeasibility study following
another, so that geothermal potential could be quantified within
the Master Plan planning horizon.
Exploration and studies are also needed for areas of lower

geothermal potential, to determine their value for direct
geothermal uses such as heating and refrigeration. These are
high energy uses; transferring them to lower cost sources of
energy will be beneficial.
Some promotion of geothermal energy and its use in heating,

drying, etc. would be a very valuable exercise for government
and for the GSE and EEPCO.

3.5.6 Solar Energy
The RVLB receives an abundance of solar energy throughout the
year, though of course, less so in the rainy seasons. At present
the use of solar energy in the RVLB is very low except for the
drying of some crops like tobacco. However, the potential for
developing it is almost unlimited, constrained mainly by the
amount of investment government and individuals are interested
in putting into it.
Solar energy can be harnessed for generating electricity and for

direct use in heating and drying. Electricity production on a
large scale is still not cost effective because of the technological
limitations, though efficiencies will undoubtedly increase in the
future.
Solar has good potential for household use, generating small

amounts of electricity sufficient for lighting and other small
electric needs. The solar panels are relatively cheap and their
use should reduce demands on fuel wood and other biomass
fuels for energy. The use of solar panels has increased rapidly in
other developing countries, such as Bangladesh, because even
relatively poor people buy them as they save money in the long
run.
Direct solar energy for heating and drying has even better
potential for household, agricultural and industrial use, again
reducing demand for fuel wood and other biomass fuels.
With the current concern over rising fuel prices and global
warming, consideration needs to be given for promoting the use
of solar energy in the RVLB. Though cost effective, some of the
hardware requires an initial cash investment which may be
beyond the means of many of the poorer people. This can be
resolved through making credit available to the poor, as has
been done in Bangladesh, among other countries.
3.5.7 Wind Energy

There is some potential for developing wind energy in the RVLB.
Data on wind speeds is limited to a few areas and, as such
measurements are taken at 2 metres above ground level, are not
entirely appropriate for determining the potential for larger

wind mills used to generate power. These data can however be
used to identify areas where greater potential may exist,
although they are not sufficient to estimate the power
generation potential of the basin. It would be valuable to carry
out a study of wind energy, initially focused on areas that show
higher wind speeds.
Wind energy can also be used to directly drive equipment,

notably pumps. There is some evidence to support the use of
wind power in this way. For example, over 50 water pumps were
installed in the Meki area through the 1990s by an Italian NGO
and most are still operational. Similar wind driven pumps, some
25, were installed by a Catholic mission around Welayita and
Gamo Gofa and in the South Omo Zone, though most of these
are not currently working. Not all of these are within the basin,
but their use does suggest that there is potential.
3.5.8 Biofuels
Discussion and actual production of biofuels have grown rapidly
over the last few years as governments try to deflect the rising
prices of fuel and counter climate change. In recent months,
however, the discussion has turned to the rising cost of food,
partly driven by the change in agricultural land use from
growing food to growing fuel. Less than a year ago it seemed
that a large market would develop for the production of biofuels,
but now that market is in doubt. Biofuels will likely continue to
have a niche market, but not the great one envisaged such a
short time ago.
In Ethiopia, there is one ethanol producer, the Fincha Sugar

Factory. Investments are also being made in vegetable oil
production for biodiesel in various parts of the country. Though
there is some doubt about future markets for biofuels, it is likely
that there will be some, even domestically. Jatropha and castor
bean are two of the main biodiesel crops. They are hardy plants
and can grow in areas of low rainfall and marginal soils, which
well describes much of the lower elevation areas of the RVLB,
especially to the south. Markets for biofuels need to be
researched to determine the likelihood of developing markets,
both domestically and internationally. If markets can be
relatively certain, consideration should be given to promoting

biodiesel crops for these marginal areas of the RVLB where
growing food is very difficult.
There is also good potential for adding these biodiesel crops to

mixed farming, having a few plants growing on the household
plot. Processing is relatively easy and lends itself to a
community based processing plant. Even if the product is used
only locally, it would help reduce reliance on fuel wood and
other biomass fuels; these could then be put to more productive
use, such as returning cow dung to the soil as fertiliser rather
than burning it.
3.6 Crop Production
3.6.1 Overview
The following is a synopsis of crop production in the RVLB. For
further detail on agronomy and crop production in the basin, the
reader is directed to the Final Phase 1 Report, Part II, Volume 2,
Annex E, Crop Production, and Volume 1, Water Resources,
Annex D, Irrigation and Drainage.
The RVLB is mainly an agricultural basin. The livelihoods of a

large majority of the people depend on agriculture, of which
crop production is the major contributor. The proportional
contribution of agriculture to the RGDP is about 38% at present,
which is the single largest contributor by far. The corollary of
this, of course, is that 62% of the economy of the basin is not
from crop production. Though the proportion of crop production
to the economy will change with economic development,
agriculture will remain an important part of the overall
economic make up and will continue to employ a significant,
though declining segment of the population.
Crop production is almost entirely based on smallholder, rainfed

agriculture. There is very little irrigated land overall because
much of the land is not suited to irrigation, and the water
resources are insufficient. There are some large scale farms,
mostly the ‘state farms’ left over from the Derg era. Most of
these have either been abandoned, are now going out of
production or have been turned over to the private sector. Either

way, they represent a small proportion of the cropped area of
the basin.
3.6.2 Rainfed Agriculture

There are a total of about 3.9 million ha of land for smallholder,
rainfed agriculture in the RVLB, covering categories S1, S2 and
S3. S1, the best land, amounts to less than 150,000 ha. S2
covers about 1.9 million ha for a total of just over 2 million ha of
land suitable for rainfed, smallholder agriculture. There is also
about 2 million ha of rainfed agriculture already under
cultivation in the RVLB, with the obvious conclusion that all the
good land is already in use. There are 1.8 million ha of S3, or
‘marginal’ land, but with a very low crop production potential of
only 50 to 60% of the potential of S1 land. Farming this land will
be high risk and very difficult to make a living from. Both S2 and
S3 land also competes with forest development. In many cases
forestry, which includes plantations, peri-urban plantations and
agro-forestry, is more valuable. Economic analysis can
determine the best mix of forest and rainfed agriculture with the
objective of greatest contribution to basin RGDP. About half of
the area would be best used for forestry.
The conclusion is that most of the increased production from

agriculture in the RVLB will come from increased intensity, or
productivity, rather than expansion of area. Fortunately, there is
great scope for increasing productivity through intensification,
as the defining feature of crop production in the RVLB is its
extremely low productivity. There are many factors at play in
driving low productivity:
 small land holdings driven by population pressure

 land tenure laws which discourage investment in the land
 declining soil fertility worsened by the diversion of animal
dung and crop residues to fuel rather than fertiliser
 larger scale land degradation due to poor farming practice
and deforestation
 low use of fertilisers and other agro-chemicals
 low use of improved seeds.
All of this both drives, and is driven, by poverty, creating a

poverty cycle which is difficult to break.

The most important change within the Master Plan period will
be the move from subsistence agriculture to a more
commercially oriented farming system. This needs to be linked
to a commensurate change in the types of crops grown and how
they are grown, the use of agricultural inputs, including labour
and power, and links with industry.
There are some 128,000 ha of S1 land with a further 875,000 ha

of S2 land suitable for mechanised farming (based on slope).
More commercial, mechanised farming is more productive and
is the direction agriculture in the basin must go if farm
productivity and economic growth targets are to be achieved.
With full consideration of those changes, it is necessary to

ensure first that the smallholder, subsistence farmer maximises
crop production, because for many years to come smallholder,
rainfed agriculture will remain the largest subsector of crop
production. Therefore, the early stages of the Master Plan will
be directed at improving the livelihoods of subsistence farmers,
but at the same time, putting interventions in place to change
their approach to farming.
3.6.3 Irrigated Agriculture

Currently, smallholder, household or community irrigation totals
to about 22,000 ha, and benefits about 60,000 households.
These are generally simple set-ups of a single pump abstracting
water from a lake or river by individual farmers or a few
families. There are also larger, commercial irrigation schemes
totalling about 7,700 ha. This is a tiny amount of development
compared with rainfed agriculture, as is reflected in its
contribution to RGDP of less than 1%. This proportion is likely to
remain much the same over the MP period.
Table 3.6 shows the distribution by sub-basin of existing

irrigated agriculture in the RVLB.
Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.7: Existing

irrigation in the RVLB
Sub-basin Area (ha) Percent

of total
Ziway – Abiyata – Langano - 7,156 24.1
Shala
Awasa 1,900 6.4
Abaya-Chamo 13,591 45.8
Segen – Weito 7,025 23.7
Total 29,672
There is only a small amount of suitable (S1) land for irrigation

in the RVLB, amounting to about 29,000 ha. This compares well
with the existing irrigation extent (estimated at 29,700 ha),
suggesting that all the good land has already been developed for
irrigation. However, there are about 150,000 ha of S2 land,
which is of reasonable quality for irrigation, suggesting that
there is some limited potential for irrigation development, based
on land quality considerations only.
There are several other constraints to irrigation development,

the main one being water. The RVLB is already in a state of
water scarcity and difficult decisions will need to be taken on
where the available water resources are best allocated to have
the
greatest impact on development. While irrigation can
significantly increase agricultural productivity on a unit area
basis, it is also a very large and inefficient user of water.
Essentially, the decision to irrigate in the RVLB will be a trade-
off between:
 irrigating land for a small overall contribution to RGDP, or

 preserving the lakes (which support fisheries, tourism and
many communities).
This trade-off between irrigation and the sustainability of the

lakes is well illustrated in the following figures. It is apparent
that the areas of existing irrigation in the Ziway – Abiyata lake
system is already unsustainable. Figure 3.5 shows the observed
levels in Lake Ziway from 1974 to 2005.

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.6: Lake Ziway
water levels (1974-2005)
There is an apparent decline in observed lake levels since 2001,

which has been often referred to in reports on Ziway. It may
indeed indicate an overuse of water but it is not certain as inter-
annual variability obfuscates the picture. Observed Ziway lake
levels alone are not sufficient for a conclusion to be drawn.
The impact on Lake Abiyata is more dramatic, as shown in

Figure 3.6. Lake Ziway flows into Lake Abiyata through the
Bulbula River. When Ziway lake levels rise, so does flow into the
Bulbula and to Abiyata, making the outlet from Ziway one of the
three main controls on lake levels (along with rainfall and
abstractions). Since the mid 1980s Lake Abiyata water levels
have been in almost constant decline, which is not explainable
through the rainfall record, indicating that water abstractions
are the main cause of the decline. The very strongly suggests
that current rates of abstraction are unsustainable and
therefore any future, greater abstraction will simply make the
situation worse.

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.7: Lake Abiyata
water levels (1975-2005)
These figures, especially the Lake Abiyata water levels, indicate

a non-sustainable situation with regard to water use in the
Ziway – Abiyata sub-basin. The loss of water volume
dramatically increased the alkalinity of the lake, killing off fish
and driving away the water birds that fed on them, clearly
illustrating the trade off between irrigation and the health of the
lakes.
There are other technical constraints for irrigation development

at many of potential sites, mostly relating to the viability of dam
construction. These include:
 high sediment loads in most rivers, reducing the working life

of reservoirs and driving up the cost of development
 difficult or alluvial foundation conditions requiring expensive
foundation treatment.
In addition there are economic and social constraints with some

of the sites which include:
 insufficient command area for dam construction to be

economically justifiable
 remoteness and inaccessibility constraining access to
markets and effectiveness of extension support

 Potential for ethnic conflict.
Perhaps the most important and difficult are the institutional

constraints. These are mainly policy issues and must be
addressed if irrigation development is to provide the benefits
expected.
Another very important issue is that of land tenure, which is

discussed in several sections of this report. This has wider
implications in relation to the need to reconsolidate the highly
fractured land holdings, which have resulted in them being too
small to support a family. Also, the need to move from
smallholder, subsistence farming to commercial farming is held
back by the inability to buy and sell land.
Specific to irrigation schemes, there is no entitlement of farmers

to the infrastructure of irrigation projects. This complements
their lack of ownership of the land that they occupy and the
water they use. The intention is that medium scale schemes are
to be developed for Water User Associations (WUAs) and large
scale schemes as a partnership between farmers and
government, or possibly between private investors and
government. The outcome is a lack of incentive for farmers to
participate or to invest.
Cost recovery performance for irrigation projects in Ethiopia

has been poor and will need to be improved if irrigation projects
are to provide the benefits expected; policy development is in
progress on this issue.
While government policy is to encourage the involvement of

private investors in agricultural production, and especially in
agro-industrial enterprises, interest from private investors has
so far been limited. The success of irrigation development
depends on good markets for agricultural produce.
Business related support for irrigation is poor in Ethiopia. The

transition from subsistence to commercial farming has yet to be
properly taken on board by farmers and policy makers alike.
Farmers cannot be expected to make this transition without
support and advice on business planning, marketing access
strategies, processing and storage of produce, maximising

quality, and speed and timing of distribution to market. This can
only be done through well organised agricultural extension
which, as is described below and elsewhere in this report, needs
considerable strengthening in order to meet these challenges
(see below).
At present in the RVLB there is little or no water resources

management or planning being carried out. This means
coordination between water users including irrigation schemes
hardly occurs, and is likely to lead to increased conflicts over
water use as development proceeds. Water management will
become the mandate of the new River Basin Organisations
(RBOs) which are to be established in all basins. This important
institutional work needs to be fast tracked to keep pace with
development.
3.6.4 Agricultural Extension Services

A serious difficulty in agriculture in Ethiopia, including in the
RVLB, is the low capacity of extension services. Recently,
Farmer Training Centres (FTCs) were established to replace the
old extension services. However, these are not yet fully up and
running. Staff numbers are low and the level of knowledge could
be improved, especially in market matters. Importantly, the
services do not include aspects of business and markets, which
are essential if changes to the approach to agriculture are to be
achieved. FTCs and other extension services need to be
redirected toward supporting the main goal of increasing
agricultural productivity, requiring retraining of many staff,
recruitment of significant numbers of new staff, developing
farmer training programmes, etc.
3.6.5 The Land Tenure Issue

One of the most important development issues is that of land
holdings and land tenure. The population density is high and
continues to grow, which has resulted in an average landholding
in the basin of about 0.8 ha. In the mid-highland and highland
areas it is lower, at about 0.5 ha per household. This is too small
an area to support a family through subsistence agriculture, and
drives people to exploit other natural resources in the area,
stripping the land of its resources, creating conflict and driving
the poverty cycle.

In Ethiopia, all land belongs to the State with landholders
having use rights. The lack of private land ownership, or legal
tenure rights, leads to insecurity of tenure because of the fear of
land reallocation to accommodate newly emerging households.
This insecurity then results in low investment, poor
management practices, land degradation and low agricultural
productivity.
The present policy is to keep land under public ownership and

this is enshrined in the Constitution. However, as land tenure is
a critical factor influencing sustainable agricultural
development and food security in Ethiopia, the Government is
now placing greater emphasis on enhancing security of tenure.
In 2005, the Rural Land Administration and Land Use
Proclamation which sets out the eligibility criteria and
conditionalities whereby farmers may acquire and use rural
land. Following a survey of the land by a competent authority, a
Rural Land Holding Certificate is issued to an individual
landholder (or jointly held by husband and wife). The land
certificate has no time limit and may be inherited by family
members.
Under the Proclamation, holders of land certificates are obliged

to “protect their land” and this is assumed to mean the adoption
of appropriate farming practices and the implementation of soil
conservation measures. Failure to comply will result in the loss
of the certificate. Registered land which remains unused may be
redistributed to other households who have no land.
Although the Proclamation provides farmers with greater

security of tenure, it falls well short of offering freehold title
deeds which are necessary to establish a land market permitting
farmers to buy and sell land. A land market would facilitate the
consolidation of land holdings thereby offsetting the detrimental
impact of increasing land fragmentation.
3.6.6 Other Issues in Crop Production

There are several issues which currently hinder the
improvement of agricultural productivity. One is the limited
market outlets for the agricultural products, combined with the
limited (though improving) road networks, especially to the

more remote areas. Together these reduce farmers’ ability to
market their produce. Until now, most farm produce has been
consumed on farm or locally because most agriculture is truly
subsistence, and not market, oriented. Subsistence agriculture
must move toward more market or commercially oriented
farming as this both drives productivity and improves household
income. To make this move good markets and good market
access are a necessity.
Accessibility to appropriate agricultural technologies (mainly

improved seeds, fertilizers, and farm tools and implements) is
currently poor. This is partly a poverty issue but mostly an
education and agricultural extension issue. To be more
productive farmers must have knowledge of modern farming
methods and attitudes.
The limited access to credit is an issue related to the above in

that poor farmers cannot afford to buy agricultural inputs that
would increase their production.
Declining soil fertility and overall land degradation is also a

significant obstacle to economic growth and agricultural
productivity because the farmer’s primary asset – the land he
occupies - is deteriorating in fertility. There are many reasons
behind this: rapid population growth and increased land
pressure, the diversion of organic materials like crop residues
and livestock manure into fuel rather than fertiliser, excessive
grazing of animals due to unsustainable livestock numbers, and
the exposure of soil to erosion where annual patterns of
cropping and cultivation are practised.
Local government at wereda, zonal and regional levels have

been putting greater efforts into some of these most important
constraints. However, they are not always well focused, and
overall investments in financial and human resources are
insufficient to make the changes needed at the pace required.
3.7 Livestock and Rangelands
3.7.1 Background
The following is a synopsis of the livestock situation in the
RVLB. For further detail on the various aspects of livestock in

the basin, the reader is directed to the Final Phase 1 Report,
Part II, Volume 2, Annex F, Livestock and Rangeland
Development.
3.7.2 Livestock Populations

Table 3.7 shows the livestock numbers within the RVLB, in
terms of actual numbers and Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs).
About 66% of these animals are in SNNPRS. The livestock are

reasonably well distributed all over the basin, with some
variation due to factors such as climate, vegetation cover, water
availability, settlement conditions and farming systems. The
average livestock density of the Basin is 90 TLU/km 2, varying
approximately with human population density, but with other
factors involved such as high infestation and incidence of tsetse
flies and trypanosomiasis infections.
The average livestock holding per household is 3.2 TLU, with

Oromiya households owning more animals, averaging 4.1 per
household compared with 2.8 in SNNPRS. The number of
livestock owned is an indication of the perceived value of
animals to the household. While livestock is a determinant in
food security, much of the perceived value is not related to food
or potential income. The greater importance of many species of
livestock is associated with their aesthetic and cultural values.
Table The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.8: Livestock

population of the RVLB
Livestock Animal numbers Animal
type Oromiy SNNPR Basin TLU
a S
Cattle 1,641,1 3,354,9 4,996,0 3,996,8
12 01 13 10
Sheep 475,786 1,090,6 1,566,4 156,643
46 32
Goats 422,213 1,047,2 1,469,4 146,945
38 51
Horses 118,005 139,529 257,534 169,972
Donkeys 188,484 180,231 368,715 243,352
Mules 7,185 26,587 33,772 22,290
Camels 1,233 0 1,233 1,504

Livestock Animal numbers Animal
type Oromiy SNNPR Basin TLU
a S
Poultry 1,453,0 3,572,7 5,025,8 N/A
64 62 26
Total 2,854,0 5,839,1 8,693,1 4,737,5
Animals 18 32 50 17
Source: RVLB Study, Phase 1 Sector Assessments
Note: total animals excludes poultry
One of the main issues in livestock is that there are too many
animals. Overgrazing is a major contributor to land degradation
and watershed deterioration. Livestock does not contribute as
well as it should to livelihoods and household incomes, because
there is little relationship between the raising of animals and
markets. It is apparent that livestock actually obstructs
economic growth, because of the overall disparity between the
cost of keeping livestock and the value returned to the owners.
The livestock in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin are of indigenous

types, with some particular to specific areas in the basin. There
is potential to adapt and adopt breeds which are better
producers so that household income, especially from cattle, can
be increased per unit, and thereby drive reduction of numbers.
This approach has been taken up only in a few very small areas
of Ethiopia; currently it is more often resisted than supported.
3.7.3 Feed and Water Requirements

The major sources of feed for livestock in the Rift Valley Lakes
Basin are natural pastures (57%), fallow land (4%) and
aftermath grazing (5%), plus crop residues (25%). There are
some other sources: industrial byproducts (1%) and improved
forage and weeds generated by thinning (7%).
Total dry matter production in the basin is estimated at 13.2

million tonnes per annum. The highest contribution is from
wooded grasslands, at 10.4 million tonnes (79%). Crop residues
and aftermath grazing contribute 14% and 5%, respectively. On
the basis of 2.28 tonnes of dry matter per annum required to
maintain one TLU, the annual feed requirement is estimated at
11.1 million tonnes. This would appear to be sufficient, indeed

with an apparent excess of 2.2 million tonnes, but feed shortage
has been raised as a key issue in every part of the basin where
field surveys have been carried out.
Water for livestock is also an issue. During the dry season many
farmers and herders must take their livestock greater and
greater distances to find water, which increases open grazing
and adds to the deterioration of the land resources of the basin.
The total water requirement for livestock in the basin is
calculated to be 56 million m3 annually, the equivalent
requirement for irrigating about 7,000 ha of crops.
3.7.4 Livestock Production

The major livestock outputs include draught power, milk, meat,
eggs, hides and skins and manure, estimated at:
Draught power: 700,000 pair of oxen

Milk: 515 thousand tonnes
Meat: 62 tonnes
Eggs: 95 million (4.3 thousand tonnes)
Hides: 3.1 million
Sheep skins: 1.0 million
Goat skins : 0.9 million
Manure: 1.8 million tonnes
3.7.5 Animal Health

A wide range of livestock diseases exist in the RVLB. These can
be categorised into bacterial, viral, protozoan, rickets and
internal and external parasites. Generally, they affect all
livestock, but some are specific to certain livestock species.
Disease kills about 466,000 cattle, 238,000 sheep and 187,000
goats annually. Disease morbidity also debilitates livestock,
resulting in slow growth rates, reduced mature weight, poor
reproductive performance and decreased work output. The
presence of such diseases also excludes the country from many
lucrative international markets.
Health facilities for livestock are few in number and

insufficiently staffed. Government facilities include 7 Regional
Laboratories, 52 Government Clinics, 103 Health Posts and 1

Quarantine Station. Private facilities include 4 animal health
clinics and 35 drug shops.
3.7.6 Livestock Extension and Support Services

Livestock development is undertaken through the agricultural
extension system. The areas of livestock extension include
production, nutrition, health, marketing and other regulator
services.
General agricultural extension, including for livestock, is the

responsibility of the Regional Bureaux of Agriculture and Rural
Development. The main activity is conducted at wereda level,
where a number of kebeles staffed by development agents (DAs)
are assigned. At kebele level, there are three DAs: 1 crop
specialist, 1 livestock specialist and 1 natural resource
specialist. In areas where there are extensive livestock
activities, an additional animal health technician may be placed.
At all levels, there are meant to be several livestock
professionals with varying areas of expertise, but in most
kebeles they are not in place. This is typical of the FTC / DA
system, where chronic shortages of technical staff are a
common feature. Additionally, FTCs for livestock and general
agriculture suffer from a lack of logistical support, shortage of
budgets, high staff turnover due to low morale, and lack of
training.
3.7.7 Livestock Marketing

Two types of markets handle livestock: those which are
specifically designated for livestock and those which are general
markets with one corner maintained for livestock. There are no
terminal markets in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin. Generally,
markets are held once a week, but may carry over two days.
There are permanent markets in big cities and towns like Awasa
and Yirga Alem. While markets exist, the approach to marketing
by animal owners is unplanned and sporadic. Especially with
cattle, most animals are sold only when money is needed for
festivals. Because festivals are celebrated by everyone, prices
for selling in this way are low. Generally, there is a limited
understanding of market processes and so little household
income is derived from livestock.

3.7.8 Potential for Rangeland Development
Most land below 1,500 masl is considered suitable rangeland
area. In the RVLB, about 2 million ha are suitable for rangeland.
These areas are mostly in parts of Borena, Burji, Derashi, Gamo
Gofa, Gedeo, Konso, Sidama, South Omo and Wolayita zones.
The pastoral areas are inhabited mainly by the majority Borena
ethnic group, with a number of smaller groups of pastoralists
and agro-pastoralists.
The pastoral areas tend to be of lower rainfall, with mean

annual rainfall amounts on the order of 350 to 400 mm. Rain
tends to be erratic and unevenly distributed, making the land
unsuitable for crop production. Feed and water availability for
livestock tends to be low, barely sufficient for the animals, and
this contributes to the very low productivity of livestock in the
RVLB.
The percentages of livestock in the basin within the pastoral

areas are about 15% for cattle and camels, 21% for sheep, 34%
goats, less than 7% each for donkeys and horses and less than
2% for poultry.
Pastoralism has been uncontrolled in the RVLB, which worked

well enough in the past when there was sufficient land. The
major problem now and over the last decade or so is the
increasing land pressure due to rapid population growth. There
is encroachment onto what was once pastoral land by farmers,
causing conflict between pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and
sedentary farmers. Rapidly increasing livestock populations are
also a problem as the shrinking rangeland areas cannot support
the number of animals. Overgrazing and associated land
degradation has become a major issue.
It is likely that real pastoralism will decline because of land

pressure and related conflict. Under the new land use certificate
programme, and to a greater extent once land ownership comes
into effect, pastoralists will be less free to roam in search of feed
and water. This is the main driver for setting aside land for, and
developing, communal rangeland so that the remaining
pastoralists can have a place to graze animals without
conflicting with agro-pastoralists and agrarians. Grazing would
be restricted to these areas, thus reducing widespread

environmental damage from overgrazing that afflicts much of
the basin. It would also by necessity force a reduction in the
number of animals, which would be a very good outcome.
3.8 Other Natural Resources
3.8.1 Fisheries and Crocodiles

Fisheries
The RVLB contains most of the productive lakes in Ethiopia, and

the potential fish resources are high. However, the present level
of exploitation is lower than it was a few years ago, and all lakes
exhibit the effects of overfishing due to inappropriate fishing
and management practices – in short, the lack of regulation and
enforcement. Reliable fish catch statistics are not readily
available. Earlier estimates of production ranged from 15,000 to
19,000 tonnes per year, but current production, estimated from
other sources, is estimated at only 8,500 tonnes per year. If
these estimates are correct, they suggest a large scale decline in
fish stocks in the RVLB.
Fisheries represent only 0.5% of the RGDP of the RVLB. It is

unlikely that the proportion will change significantly, but it can
be a good local source of employment if it is properly regulated
and if there is investment put into much needed infrastructure.
The resource has been and remains in a state of open access

(unlicensed) which has damaged fish stocks and left the industry
with very poor management. There is no fishery legislation at
the regional government level and hence no regulation or
enforcement. While there is some government involvement in
the industry there have been inadequate manpower and very
low budget allocations for enhancing development.
These problems have yet to be solved, as the fishery legislation

that addresses these issues is not yet ratified in the Oromiya RS
and SNNPRS. Legislation was completed at the federal level in
2003 but it has not been passed through the regional channels.
Fisheries development efforts to date have been limited on the

part of government, mainly because local administrations have

lacked awareness of the importance of fish as a food source and
the economic and social benefits of a thriving fishery.
There is only a weak research and extension linkage which

provides little to no information or guidance to fishermen or the
industry for planning development programmes or monitoring
and controlling destructive activities. Uncoordinated
cooperative formation, which did not properly consider resource
capacity, increased fishing pressures and created an overfishing
problem. This has not yet been remedied.
Fishermen have not been able to develop technology on their

own and there has been practically no fishery extension service;
what there is has been very weak. There have been no
regulations or real management and this has resulted in the
unrestricted use of certain fishing gear and methods, like beach
seining, and the destruction of tilapia spawning grounds.
Fishermen have never been instructed in good fishing practice
and feel no responsibility for their destructive fishing methods.
There is poor infrastructure development at the shore. That,

combined with limited road access to fish landing sites, has
resulted in huge post-catch losses of landed fish. Real docks for
fish landing, where inspectors can watch and manage fish
catches, where there is refrigeration and even freezing
equipment and which could be locations for training and other
extension, would greatly improve the fishing industry.
Inadequate attention has been given to the aquaculture

subsector. The water bodies that were stocked with fingerlings
did not get proper follow-up, so that the programme was
unsuccessful. Local communities did not get adequate technical
support to benefit from the stocking programmes, severely
limiting their success.
Other activities in the catchment such as water abstraction or

diversion of rivers for irrigation, coupled with deforestation,
overgrazing and increased sedimentation associated with
farming of slopes, have all negatively affected the productivity of
lakes. Little has been done to monitor the impact of, or manage,
such activities.

Even with the problems the fisheries face, the RVLB continues
to be the most important area in terms of fishery resources,
containing major lakes that provide over 70% of the fish
supplied to the market.
In addition to the potential of the lakes for fish production, the

basin has a suitable climate, sufficient water resources and
sufficient land to develop an aquaculture industry. Aquaculture
is a good additional source to satisfy the growing demand for
fish and to reduce the pressure on the natural fish stocks in the
lakes.
Crocodiles
There are two facets to crocodiles in the RVLB – as wildlife and

therefore in need of conservation and protection, and as a
potential resource. The resource element has a further two
aspects – supplying meat and skins and as an attraction to
tourists.
The Nile crocodile (crocodylus niloticus) is the species found in

RVLB, in Lake Langano, in Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo, as well
as some of the rivers in the Chamo – Abaya basin.
From a tourism perspective, the so called ‘crocodile market’, on

Lake Chamo, attracts a few tourists a year while they are
visiting the Nech Sar National Park and Arba Minch. The Arba
Minch Crocodile Farm also has a tourist component. The Arba
Minch Farm was established 1984 with the twin objectives of
raising crocodiles for their skins for market and conserving the
wild crocodile population through captive breeding and
releasing them to the wild.
There are no specific figures for 2005, our baseline year, but
estimates over the years of operation show that the farm earns
about ETB 500,000 per year from skins and ETB 15,000 per year
from tourism. This amounts to a total contribution to the basin
RGDP of 0.006%. Part of the reason for the low earnings and
contribution to the economy of the basin is poor management
and poor performance. As a government enterprise, what little
earnings are accrued are not returned to improve or even
maintain the farm.

Improvements in management and productivity could be made.
But even assuming a tenfold increase over the MP period, which
would be essentially impossible, crocodile farming would
contribute only 0.06% of RGDP.
Crocodile farming does provide a good source of local

employment and does bring some money into the local economy.
Crocodile products are a niche market and will remain so.
Because of the small contribution to RGDP crocodile production
is included with fisheries in the Master Plan analysis.
3.8.2 Forestry and Agro-Forestry

The peculiarity of forestry is that in addition to satisfying the
demand for fuel wood and wood products, forests have the
additional role of protecting catchments, specifically reducing
soil erosion, minimising land degradation, increasing
agricultural productivity and maintaining biodiversity. In their
role as resources they also provide additional off-farm work for
farmers and their families, increasing incomes and improving
livelihoods.
The current forest resources of the basin are: 146,000 ha of

natural forest, 14,000 ha of plantation, 500,000 ha of woodland
and 620,000 of shrubland. This is a total of about 1.3 million ha
of land covered in trees of shrubs.
The current contribution of forestry to the economy of the basin

is almost ETB 900 million, representing 11% of total RGDP, the
major share of that for fuelwood. The current forest cover of the
RVLB is shown on Figure 3.7. There are very few natural forests
remaining in the RVLB, but there are some plantations which
can be a good resource if properly managed.
There are about 2 million ha of land in the RVLB considered

suitable for forest development. As noted above, 1.3 million are
already under some kind of forest growth, leaving a potential
700,000 ha for future development. Large scale development of
new forest is limited as forest expansion clashes with
agricultural expansion. However, there is good potential in some
areas because forests can grow on land which is marginal or

unsuitable for agriculture, particularly on steep slopes. In
addition there is very good potential for increasing agroforestry.
The regional state administrations have recently issued a

proclamation to allow private and community ownership of
forests, which opens the door to investment and promotion; the
objective is to reduce the surge in fuel (and construction) wood
shortages in both rural and urban areas. The existing potential
for peri-urban plantations is not fully harnessed, so that
implementation of projects aimed at developing such plantations
will help satisfy this objective.
Though trees are well integrated into the production systems in

some of the densely populated areas in the highlands
(agroforestry), there is a potential for, and need to, expand the
activity to the central and western middle altitude areas of the
basin. This should both improve agricultural productivity and to
reduce soil erosion.

Figure The RIFT VALLEY LAKES BASIN.8: Forest cover
map

The development of industrial forestry by private entrepreneurs
and concessionaires is important to commercialise the sector
and to pave the way for the establishment of medium scale
forest industries. There are areas of good potential for such
development (those having large areas of land with a greater
than 30% slope) in the western, eastern and south-eastern
highlands of the basin.
There are proclamations on forest and land use, but no policy at

this time, and proclamations have no legal status for
enforcement. The issue of land tenure and land ownership
comes into play here, as in agriculture and other sectors,
because the security that goes with land ownership is missing
and hence investment is high risk. The lack of control over the
use of land resources is the main constraint for the development
of the forestry sector. Promotion of agroforestry and community
forestry requires improvements in land rights for farmers and
other individuals, which really means land ownership. Land
shortages and stiff competition from agriculture are also
important constraints to forest development.
Another issue is the lack of institutional collaboration among the

key stakeholders, such as land use offices, investment offices,
Bureaux of Agriculture and Rural Development. Coordination
among these offices is extremely important as they all plan for
development of land. There are conflicting goals among forestry,
agriculture, other forms of natural resource exploitation and
urban growth and other infrastructure development. Integrated
development planning would minimise these conflicts.
Information exchange between these offices is currently weak
and needs to be improved.
The limitations in manpower and the shortage of sector

specialists at all administrative levels are a barrier to the
development of the sector. This is especially so in designing and
implementing management plans for the existing natural forests
and woodland resources. These activities require sufficient
manpower with the appropriate skills at all levels.
State regulations on marketing of forest products and the high

levels of royalty and taxation of them discourage investment by
the private sector. Attractive incentive packages (tax incentives,

support for obtaining land, etc.) would help attract investors.
Credit facilities for forestry investments, especially microcredit
for agroforestry would be highly beneficial to the development
of the industry.
3.8.3 Apiculture
Much of the area of the RVLB, with the exception of some of the
pastoral and agro-pastoral areas, has potential for apiculture
development. The honeybee flora, climate, and other agro-
ecological factors are highly favourable for the maintaining
large numbers of honeybee colonies and for honey and beeswax
production.
Apiculture can contribute significantly to household income,

enhancing the livelihoods of agricultural communities. Women,
particularly, can benefit from apiculture as it is an industry in
which their participation would not cause social friction. Indeed,
apiculture has the potential to be a lever to empower women,
providing them with their own income and teaching them
business practices which will contribute to their own livelihood
improvement as well as to that of the community.
To date very little of this potential has been exploited and

apiculture represents only 0.2% of the basin RGDP. Rural
communities will benefit from exploiting these potential
resources but need support from government, especially
extension services, to do so.
Apiculture is already practiced in the basin with existing

indigenous knowledge of bee management. This can provide a
base for wider dissemination. There is a large labour force
within farming communities to support beekeeping activities.
There is a high demand for honey and beeswax and the RVLB is
already known as an area producing good honey. There has
already been some support to apiculture provided by NGOs and
international development agencies, and there has been interest
shown by the private sector. There is potential to integrate
apiculture with fruit and vegetable farming and agroforestry
practices, thus linking apiculture with improved land
management practices and improved livelihoods from other
sources and activities.

Despite the good potential of apiculture in the basin, it has not
developed. The main constraint has been the low level of
awareness about the value and benefits of apiculture. Limited
attention has been given to it by government services. This is
exacerbated by the lack of farmer training facilities and weak
extension services in general, and more specifically, the lack of
staff trained in apiculture. For farmers there is also the problem
of lack of access to credit. The current rate of deforestation is
also working against apiculture development as the trees and
other plants necessary for bee survival are being removed.
3.8.4 Wildlife and Protected Areas

The RVLB has a highly variable set of habitats which had
supported a diversity of wildlife species. Several endemic
species were found, including Mountain Nyala, Menelik’s
Bushbuck and the subspecies Swayne’s Hartebeest. Over 500
bird species have also been recorded in the basin.
Wildlife conservation started in the 1960s in the RVLB.

Protected areas were established, including two national parks
(Nech Sar National Park and Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park)
as well as various wildlife and bird sanctuaries, controlled
hunting areas, and wildlife and game reserves.
Wildlife numbers have been declining through a lack of any real

management and the wildlife sector needs far greater attention.
Controlled hunting areas no longer have wildlife to hunt, game
reserves are also now without animals to protect.
Abiyata-Shala National Park has very few animals and

communities have encroached on the park over the years and
now farm and graze livestock in the park. A ‘Tourist City’ is
being developed there covering some 30,000 ha and Lake
Abiyata boasts a large (though currently not functioning) soda
ash extraction plant, for which considerable expansion is
planned. The watershed that supports Lake Abiyata is
industrialising rapidly; irrigation water use is expanding such
that flows into Abiyata are reduced and the surface area of the
lake has declined by 30% or more. All of this goes against the
laws that define a national park in Ethiopia, but they are not
enforced.

The situation with Nech Sar National Park is similar to, but
several steps behind, the decline of Abiyata Shala Lakes
National Park. Wildlife species and numbers are declining due
mainly to habitat loss as communities have moved into the park
and are now farming and grazing livestock. The NGO African
Parks had been contracted to manage Nech Sar National Park
but left earlier this year because they felt that government had
not been doing their part in supporting national park
regulations.
Normally, the key to improving the wildlife situation is through

conservation and management efforts. However, there is so little
wildlife remaining to be conserved or managed, restocking with
wildlife would be required before any conservation and
management could be done. Therefore, the first question must
be whether or not the national and regional governments
actually want to maintain the protected areas including national
parks. If the answer to that question is positive, a plan of action
for each park and other protected area is required.
3.8.5 Minerals and Mining

The RVLB contains soda ash, diatomite and bentonite in
sufficient quantities and quality for economic exploitation. At
present Ethiopia imports most of the country’s needs for
industrial minerals. Minerals and mining make up less than
0.1% of the RGDP of the RVLB.
Soda Ash
Soda ash can be extracted from sodic waters such as in Lake

Abiyata. It is used in the production of glass and of caustic soda.
Both of these are currently used in industry in Ethiopia, but
most of the country’s requirements are met through imports
from Kenya.
One possible use of caustic soda, though it is not yet considered

in relation to the Abiyata Soda Ash factory, is in the treatment of
fluoride contaminated water. Fluoride contamination is very
common in groundwater in the RVLB, especially in the lowlands.
Treatment is very expensive, about ETB 13/m3, mainly due to the
high cost of importing the two principal reagents, alumina and
caustic soda. If caustic soda could be produced locally and

efficiently, treatment costs would be reduced, perhaps to an
affordable level.
The most commonly stated reason for importing soda ash

products is the inefficient production process at Lake Abiyata
and the consequently higher costs over imports. The official
production capacity of the plant is 20,000 tonnes per year of
soda ash, but the most they have produced is about 7,500
tonnes in 2001. In the last three years production has declined
to very low levels as the water level of Lake Abiyata has fallen
and the lake shore has migrated to a distance of some 3 km from
the pumping station.
There is now a plan to rehabilitate the plant and get it working

again. Production has slowed down because of the loss of water
in Lake Abiyata. The loss of water is a result of excessive water
use in the Ziway catchment and from Lake Ziway itself, not of
operation of the soda ash plant.
Increasing production to as much as 1 million tonnes per year,

more than 100 times the current production, is also being
considered. This is impossible if relying on water from Lake
Abiyata, as it would dry up the lake entirely in a matter of a few
years. The plan is to pump water from Lake Shala. With a water
requirement of 150 m3/tonne of production, the 1 million tonnes
will result in a decline in lake levels of about 0.44 metres per
year. Over the 30 year simulation period, this would be a decline
of over 13 metres. Details of this analysis are given in Annex A.
Serious consideration must be given to whether such a factory is

an appropriate use of a National Park; both Abiyata and Shala
are in the Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park, and Lake Abiyata
is already badly damaged environmentally. If the soda ash
expansion plans go ahead, the same damage will occur in Lake
Shala.
Diatomite
Diatomite is also available in the RVLB. Higher grades are used

in the production of filters and in the purification of beverages
and edible oils, while lower grades are used as filler in the
manufacture of insecticides, in thermal insulating material and

in the production of bricks. There are good deposits near
Gademotta, Adami Tulu, Chefe Jila and Abiyata. The deposits are
found relatively close to each other, close to main roads and
they are easy to mine, all of which makes mining attractive. In
the four localities combined there are over 40 million tonnes of
proven reserves of good quality.
Bentonite
Bentonite is one of the most important deposits in the RVLB. It

can be processed into drilling mud, used in the refining of oils
and fats, as a bonding agent and as a conditioner in foundry
sands and pet litter. Small amounts are also required for
ceramics, cosmetics, and horticultural applications. The
bentonite reserves from three localities on Gedicho Island in
Lake Abaya amount to about 7 million tonnes.
Others
There are other mineral prospects in the basin that may be

economically feasible, which include epithermal gold,
gemstones, kaolin, gold, fluorite and others. However, these
have never been explored or assessed as to their reserves.
In short, there is some minerals potential, but it is relatively

small and is unlikely to contribute significantly part to RGDP.
The minerals have not been mined previously because of the
lack of markets for these products. Promotion of their use over
imported goods is needed to change the market to favour local
materials.
3.9 Industry and Commerce
3.9.1 Agro-Industries
The Basin's agricultural sector provides crops to the
manufacturing sector, including coffee, wheat, barley, cotton,
tobacco, sisal, oilseed, pyrethrum, fruits and vegetables. Coffee
production has given rise to machine based coffee hulling and
there are a large number of coffee hulling and washing plants in
the region. Of the registered private manufacturing enterprises
with capital of more than ETB 500,000, over 90% are engaged

in coffee hulling. The prevalence of coffee production and
hulling activities in the Basin could lead to the integration of
coffee milling and packing activities for both domestic and
export markets.
Wheat produced in the highlands of the Basin is the main input

to the milling industry. There is a large number of flour mills in
the region, particularly in Awasa, Hosaina, Assela and
Shashemene towns. Apart from flour mills, there are also
numerous grain mills which are evenly distributed throughout
the region. Barley is also grown for the production of industrial
malt for beer manufacture throughout Ethiopia. Smallholder
farmers are the main producers of barley to the malt factory.
With an improved supply of malting barley, expansion of malt
processing and beer production would be an attractive
industrial activity.
Small quantities of cotton are produced for the ginning plants

and textile factories in the Basin. Awasa and Arba Minch textile
factories use cotton in the production of yarn. Sisal is grown to
supply an old fibre production plant in Awasa which sells fibre to
sack producers in Addis Ababa. With improvements in
production technology, sisal's industrial use could further be
enhanced as the country's industrial demand for this type of
fibre is largely satisfied by the importation of jute.
Rapeseed (in the Arsi highlands) is also grown as an input to

edible oil manufacture. Bio-diesel production, based on oilseeds,
is another industrial activity that could emerge in the Basin.
Tobacco production in the region has not given rise to
significant manufacturing activities in the Basin. Tobacco farms
are limited to drying and curing of the leaves to supply
manufacturing firms in Addis Ababa.
Fruit and vegetable production, particularly in the northern part

of the Basin, is largely smallholder based and could supply small
and medium scale processing enterprises in the future.
Pyrethrum, grown in the temperate parts of the Basin, is also a
potential source of organic pesticide manufacture.
With respect to livestock based agro-industrial activities, meat

processing and canning is currently undertaken on a very

limited scale. There is one factory at Wondo Genet which
operates a combined abattoir, meat rendering, meat canning
and tallow extraction plants, but the factory is currently working
at less than 10% capacity. The main constraints are the use of
old processing technology and the supply of livestock which is
irregular and insufficient in both quantity and quality. In spite of
the large numbers of livestock, there are no leather processing
plants in the Basin due mainly to irregular supply and low
quality of skins.
There has been notable progress in the establishment of milk

collection and processing centres and 21 cooperatives have
recently been established with the assistance of the National
Livestock Development Project. The project assists cooperatives
by providing training as well as credit for the purchase of
processing equipment and facilities.
At present, local industry provides very few inputs to

agriculture. However, in future, the production of seeds and
livestock feed, as well as the manufacture of farm implements
and machinery, could become an important industrial activities.
In addition, agro-processing requires machinery as well as

replacement parts and maintenance services. Most machinery is
currently imported, so the manufacture of machinery and
replacement parts for the agro-industries would help to diversify
the industrial activities of the Basin.
3.9.2 Other Industries

Despite its strategic location and access to a wide range of
natural resources, the Basin’s industrial development has been
very limited. For example, the Basin contains the main fishery
resource in the country, but there are no significant fish
processing and packaging enterprises. Geothermal energy
sources are also available near Langano and Wondo Genet, but
they have not been harnessed for industrial uses.
Furthermore, the use of minerals (such as soda ash, diatomite,

bentonite, sand, pumice and red volcanic ash) for industrial
purposes could be significantly expanded. Soda ash is currently
extracted by a public enterprise in joint venture with a private

company, National Mining Corporation PLC. A diatomite deposit
is also being utilized for pesticide production.
There are a large number of furniture manufacturers which are

mainly small-scale enterprises. The industry is labour intensive
and supplies furniture products for the domestic market. The
enterprises also use a number of industrial materials including
timber, plywood, chipboard, glue, varnishes, sponges, cloth and
metals, but furniture manufacturers indicated an inadequate
supply of inputs, particularly local timber. Most of the furniture
enterprises are operating at less than 50% capacity. Commercial
forestry is also important in the Basin, but even the large
enterprises are under capitalised and often unable to compete
with smallholder forestry.
A number of enterprises produce concrete products for the local

construction industry. There are some large and medium firms,
but most are small-scale operators. Many enterprises reported
inadequate supplies of cement and, in some cases, water supply
is a major constraint. Most of the enterprises are operating at
between 30% and 50% capacity.
The structure of cottage industries is dominated by the distilling

and blending of spirits, which account for 20% of enterprises,
and malt manufacturing (19% of enterprises). Other important
cottage industries include bakeries (17% of enterprises),
weaving and textile manufacture (12%) and pottery (8%).
3.9.3 Tourism, Hotels, Restaurants and Trade

Despite the advantages of good access, fine scenery and high
biodiversity, the Basin’s tourism industry is still underdeveloped.
In recent years tourism has begun to grow with the development
of a few new hotels and lodges at Lake Langano, Assela, Awasa,
Arba Minch and other large towns.
The most frequently visited tourist sites in RVLB include Lake

Langano, the hot springs and remnant forest of Wondo Genet,
Konso, Chencha, Awasa and Arba Minch as well as the national
parks and other ‘protected areas’. Tourism in the RVLB is taking
different forms including ecotourism, sport/leisure based
tourism, trophy hunting, event tourism, conferences, bird
watching/wildlife viewing and cultural tourism.

For this Master Plan study, tourism as a sector includes hotels,
restaurants, and small trade, as it is too small to consider on its
own. Of course, hotels and restaurants cater to non-tourists as
well but the values cannot be separated. Also, a good proportion
of earnings from tourism is generated and received outside the
basin, as tourist operators in Addis and elsewhere sell packages
to tourists. In 2005, contribution to RGDP from this sector was
only 3.6%.
It is estimated that only about 10% of the tourism potential of

the RVLB is currently developed, so there remains potential for
growth. However, the RVLB will never support the levels of
‘mass tourism’ achieved in Kenya, South Africa and other parts
of Africa as it does not have the draw that these other places
have. Most of the tourist attractions are in niche markets
catering for relatively small numbers of people. But the RVLB
has some good characteristics that will support development of
tourism. Its geographical location (close to Addis Ababa and the
international airport), the diversity of attractions, improved road
network and expanding tourist accommodation provide a sound
basis for further growth. The RVLB also has the advantage of
close proximity to other tourist destinations in the Awash, Wabe
Shebele, Genale-Dawa and Omo-Gibe river basins. The Basin
also borders Kenya which attracts large numbers of foreign
tourists.
To facilitate future development, better quality accommodation

and other facilities need to be provided to cater for growing and
changing tourism demands. The tourist destinations and
attractions also require improved management in order to
attract tourists, together with support from government in
terms of investment incentives, establishment of enforceable
standards as well as marketing support.
3.10 Economic Infrastructure and Public Services
3.10.1 Roads
There are three trunk roads which enter the RVLB from the
North, namely:

 Mojo - Ziway - Shashamene - Awasa - Dila - Yabelo - Moyale
trunk road is a main corridor passing through the Basin. This
is a paved trunk road of 771 km length from Addis Ababa to
Moyale and it is part of Trans-East African highway. Up to
Shashemene it passes through the centre of the northern
part of the Basin and then runs south along the eastern side
of Basin;
 From Alemgena to Sodo via Butajira and Hossaina is a new
321 km long asphalt road which is nearly completed. It runs
in a south-southwest direction, crossing the north western
portion of the Basin traversing the upper catchments of
Meki, Dijo and Bilate Rivers;
 324 km road from Nazareth - Assela - Bekoji-Dodola - Robe –
Goba is another corridor that passes through Basin. The
road from Nazareth to Assela (78) km is undergoing
rehabilitation and upgrading to asphalt. The road from
Assela to Bekoji -Meraro (on the Basin boundary) is 68 km of
unpaved, all-weather road and it is not in good condition due
the lack of routine maintenance.
Other trunk roads in the Basin comprise:
 Asphalt road from Shashemene to Alaba Kulito which crosses

of the Rift valley, turning south to Arba Minch via Sodo,
nearly along the western side of the basin. The road from
Alaba - Sodo - Arba Minch has deteriorated and requires
major maintenance work. South of Arba Minch, an all
weather gravel road traverses the centre of the southern
part of basin to Jinka. It is now being upgraded to a paved
road; and
 110 km dry weather road from Jinka – Beto – Zala - Mela
which traverses the upper catchment of the Weito River and
it is not passable during the wet season. It connects Jinka
with the all weather road from Sodo - Selamber –Sawula.
This road passes through two small towns (Beto and Zala).
The main link and connecting roads in the Basin are described
below:
 Ziway – Butajira (48 km) unpaved road links the Mojo -

Awasa - Moyale trunk road with Alemgena- Butajira -
Hossaina -Sodo corridor. This is all weather gravel road, but

due to lack of routine maintenance, the road condition is
deteriorated and requires rehabilitation work;
 Kulumsa - Ogolcho - Meki unpaved 61 km all weather road
connects Iteya - Assela road with the main trunk road from
Mojo - Ziway - Awasa-Moyale and it is in good condition;
 Bilalo - Kersa - Langano (94 km) unpaved all weather road
connects the Assela - Bekoji - Dodola route corridor to the
main trunk road from Mojo - Ziway - Awasa - Moyale. The
road is in good condition;
 Mazoria - Durame (45 km) unpaved all weather road
connects the Kedida Gamela Wereda town Durame to Alaba -
Sodo- Arba Minch road. It passes through number of small
towns and it is in a good condition. This route connects to
Hossaina and the Shinshicho - Adro - Mudula road in the
Omo-Gibe Basin;
 Moricho - Dimtu-Bedesa - Delbo (94 km) unpaved all weather
road connects Awasa - Moyale road to Alaba - Sodo paved
road. The Region intends to rehabilitate the route to
facilitate the development of a number of small towns along
the route;
 Tula - Hantate - Lower Bilate - Amesa road is 101 km (65.3
km on Sidama side and about 36 km on Wolayita side). This
gravel road connects the Awasa - Moyale corridor with the
Sodo - Arba Minch paved road at Gelcha (near Amesa River).
This road has deteriorated and the bridge on the Bilate River
is not functioning.
 Wajifo - Zefne - Ezo - Chencha (78.4 km) unpaved all weather
road connects the wereda capitals and small towns with
main Sodo - Arba Minch road. The alignment of the route
mainly follows the catchments boundary between the Omo
and Rift Valley Basins. It is heavily eroded mountainous
terrain so landslides are common;
 37 km all weather road from Chencha to Arba Minch is in
good condition. It connects Chencha town the capital of the
Chencha Wereda.
 Sawula - Gerese - Arba Minch Junction (130 km) road
connects Gofa, Zala, Ubadebretsey, Kemba and Bonke
Weredas with the Arba Minch - Jinka corridor at Sile (29 km
from Arba Minch). From the junction, a 78 km all weather
road joins Gerese and Kemba towns with the road. This route

runs through densely populated mountainous terrain with
many stream crossings and requires frequent maintenance;
 Kemba to Sawula is a 52 km dry weather road only passable
during dry season. There is a plan to upgrade this route to
an all weather road;
 Konso - Tedesa - Yabelo (103 km) all weather road links the
Awasa - Moyale trunk road with the Arba Minch - Jinka trunk
road. At present the road is in good condition;
 The Hagere Mariam - Soyama - Konso 128 km all weather
road links Awasa - Moyale trunk road with Arba Minch -
Jinka trunk road at Karat, the capital town of Konso Special
Wereda. It passes through Soyama and other small rural
towns. The bridge on Segen River requires rebuilding and
thorny bushes on both sides of the road need clearing;
 Fiseha Genet - Cheleklektu - Kele - Soyama (120 km) is an all
weather road which joins Soyama and Kele.
3.10.2 Electricity Supply

Less than 7% of the Basin’s population has access to electricity
while the rest of the population relies on fuel wood, charcoal,
agricultural residues and animal dung to meet their household
energy needs (for cooking, heating and lighting). This results in
deforestation, soil erosion and declining soil fertility, depletion
of water resources, increasing flood hazard and serious
ecological imbalances.
Urban and rural electrification therefore plays an important role

in reducing environmental degradation. Access to an affordable
and reliable source of energy also underpins sustainable
socioeconomic development. Without a sustainable and
adequate energy source, economic growth and employment
prospects will be severely constrained and poverty reduction
targets will not be achieved. Education and health services will
also not be satisfactorily developed.
There are 130 towns and other settlements in the Basin which
have access to electricity, including one regional and nine zonal
towns, 48 wereda capitals and 84 rural towns, villages and rural
kebeles. Generally, the distribution of electricity supply in the
northern part of the Basin is better than the southern part.

The Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo) plans to
increase power supply in Ethiopia by almost a factor of three,
from the 791 MW in 2005 to 2,218 MW by 2010. With the
objective of increasing access to electricity among the poor, and
thereby assisting the socioeconomic development of the rural
population, the government launched the Universal
Electrification Access Programme (UEAP). As a result of this
programme, the electricity service coverage is expected to
expand from the current 17% to 50% of the population (EEPCo,
2005).
3.10.3 Communications
Many of the urban centres in the Basin, as well as number of
villages in the northern and central parts of the Basin, have
access to telecommunication services. However, mobile
telephone coverage remains limited to towns along major roads.
There is a critical need to develop and improve

telecommunications infrastructure, including land line
telephone, mobile telephone, broadband internet and
multimedia. The universal telecom access programme aims to
provide telephone services to all kebele administrative centres,
but this programme is still in its infancy. At present, telephone
and internet services are primarily concentrated in urban areas.
The Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency (ETA) is responsible

for the planning and implementation of telecommunication
network and for providing telecommunication services.
Meanwhile the Ethiopian Information and Communication
Technology Development Authority is responsible for the
introduction of IT technologies and the provision of training and
capacity building to establish information network systems. The
private sector is also involved in providing telephone and
internet services directly to customers, but the overall service
provision remains a government monopoly.
There are currently about 100 postal service outlets in the

RVLB, and most are located in towns. These services are
managed by the District Post Offices located in Awasa and
Nazareth. Postal services are divided into five levels:

 District Post Office: supervises post offices, department sub-
offices, agents and post men/women to deliver postal
service;
 Post Office: employs permanent staff and delivers the
required postal services;
 Departmental Sub-offices: contracts staff and provides
necessary postal service as a full post office;
 Agent: person who is designated to collect and dispatch
letters; and
 Post men/women: collect and dispatch letters mainly in rural
areas.
3.10.4 Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste Management

In the RVLB, it is estimated that 74% of urban areas and 39% of
the rural population have access to improved water supplies. In
very few cases, even in urban areas, is the water actually
potable. Efforts are being made by the Water Bureau in
SNNPRS to improve the water supply situation significantly in
both urban and rural areas. Planning and design are underway
and implementation is expected in the near future.
In Oromiya, there are programmes to improve the water supply

situation of the towns and rural areas. The Water Bureau has
implemented a number of large scale urban water supply
schemes in Asela, Ziway, Shashemene and Arsi Negele town.
Multi district and village rural and urban water supply schemes,
such as in Siraro and Ego, are also being constructed while
Bulbula water supply project is under implementation.
The capacity of the Water Bureaux and wereda water offices in

both SNNPRS and Oromiya is also being enhanced in order to
improve the operation and maintenance of the water supply
schemes.
The sanitation and sewerage coverage of the Basin is very low.

Even in densely populated urban areas most houses have pit
latrines and larger buildings have septic tanks. The pits and
tanks are emptied and the waste dumped wherever. There is no
water borne sewerage with waste water treatment anywhere in
the basin. Very little emphasis has been given to the
implementation of improved sanitation facilities. However, there

are some encouraging signs of improvement with respect to
traditional pit latrine construction in rural areas, as a result of
the community hygiene and health education programmes.
The task of solid and liquid waste disposal is the responsibility

of town administration. Towns in the Basin do not have
sewerage services, but health offices are involved in sanitation
inspection and toilet construction activities. Efforts are also
being made to improve household sanitation facilities through
World Bank and NGO programmes.
3.10.5 Education Services

With regard to education coverage in the RVLB, about 80% of 7
to 14 year olds (Grades 1-8) were enrolled in school in 2005. The
pupil teacher ratio in first cycle primary, second cycle primary
and secondary schools were 1:71, 1:59 and 1:54 respectively. In
general, the primary education programme has shown
remarkable improvements, especially in the school enrolment
rate. Oromiya and SNNP regions are also working towards
improving literacy rates, adult education and technical training
to increase productivity and facilitate social and economic
development.
There are, however, still numerous challenges pertaining to the

education of girls, geographic distribution of schools, the quality
of teachers and the availability of textbooks and
equipment/materials. There has also been a significant
expansion of secondary schools in line with the government
policy to expand access to higher education.
Special programmes have been initiated to respond to the needs

of people in remote rural and pastoral areas where it is more
difficult for children to attend to school. Accordingly, Alternative
Basic Education Centres (ABECs) are being built to reach out-of-
school children. Moreover, efforts are being made to strengthen
community and NGOs participation in the provision of primary
education.
Ethiopia’s goal is to have all children in full time primary

education by 2015, so the government’s programme is now
geared towards improving the quality of education to attract
and retain children in school. The main focus will be on

mobilizing more teachers and the provision of capacity building
programmes to upgrade teaching skills through on-the-job
training and summer courses. There has also been a
considerable increase in private sector participation in
education, especially in the larger towns of the RVLB such as
Awasa, Dila, Assela, Shashemene and Arba Minch.
3.10.6 Health Facilities

In 2005/06, the health facilities in SNNPRS were as follows:
 hospitals – 18
 health centres – 161
 health stations – 196
 health posts – 1828
 private clinic not for profit – 81
 private clinic for profit - 242.
Out of 18 hospitals, six are operated by the private sector, other

government agencies and NGOs.
With regard to health coverage in SNNPRS, it is estimated the

85% of children in SNNPRS are fully immunized, which is much
higher than the national average of 54%. Family planning
coverage is reported to be 55%, as compared with the national
average of 36%. Adult HIV prevalence in 2006 was estimated at
10% for urban and 1.5% for rural areas with only 28% of the
health facilities providing ART. Selected ratios of health
professionals to population in SNNPRS indicated that there
were 45,852 people per doctor, 4,796 people per nurse and
6,777 people per health extension worker.
In Oromiya, access to health services is more limited and, in

2005/06, the health facilities were as follows:
 hospital – 31
 health centre – 192
 health station – 699
 health posts – 1097
 private clinic not for profit – 197
 private clinic for profit - 78.

Out of 31 hospitals, 10 were operated by the private sector,
other government agencies and NGO.
With regard to health coverage in Oromiya, it is estimated that

49% of children are fully immunized. Family planning coverage
is reported to be 23%, which is relatively low in comparison to
other regions. Adult HIV prevalence in 2006 is estimated at
8.4% for urban and 1.4% for rural areas with only 13% of health
facilities providing ART. Selected ratios of health professionals
to population in Oromiya indicated that there were 145,896
people per doctor, 7,943 people per nurse and 13,048 people
per health extension worker; these figures reflect the poor level
of health coverage in Oromiya compared to the national
average.

4 KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE RVLB
4.1 Population
4.1.1 Growth Rates

The current (2005 base year) population of the RVLB is 8.9
million people. Using the low variant for the projection,
population is expected to double just after 2025 and to grow to
over 20 million by the end of the Master Plan period. The
percentage growth rates for low, medium and high variant
population projections are shown in Table 4.1.
Table KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE RVLB.9:

Percentage growth rates by projection variant
(%)
Years Variant
High Medium Low
2005- 4.0% 3.8% 3.8%
2010
2010- 3.7% 3.5% 3.3%
2015
2015- 3.4% 3.1% 2.8%
2020
2020- 3.2% 2.9% 2.5%
2025
2025- 3.2% 2.9% 2.3%
2030
2030- 3.2% 2.7% 2.1%
2035
Averag 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%
e
The low variant has been used as the basis of all Master Plan
projections. In our initial population projections the medium
variant was used. However, it is understood that the results of
the 2007 census show a lower than expected fertility rate and
earlier CSA projections may be somewhat pessimistic. It was

therefore considered that the ‘low’ variant was more likely to be
realistic.
Calling it a ‘low’ variant is to understate the reality. It is low

only in relative terms. For 2005 to 2010 it is still a 3.8% growth
rate per annum, higher than just about anywhere else in the
world. Extremely high population growth is the biggest problem
in the RVLB.
4.1.2 The Impacts of Rapid Population Growth

The rapid population growth rate is the single largest barrier to
economic growth in the basin. Economic growth is indicated
through the RGDP. Looking at the early years of the Master
Plan, the 3.8% population growth rate requires that this is the
minimum growth rate needed to stand still in terms of
socioeconomic development because all of this growth is
absorbed or nullified by the growth in population. Looked at
from another angle, if the goal is to achieve a 10% rate of
growth in RGDP, a 13.8% rate of economic growth would be
required to satisfy population growth as well as RGDP growth
goals.
As another illustration, a simple linear calculation shows that

the increase is on the order of 1,500 people per day, every day
of the MP period. Simply keeping up with the population growth
requires providing basic infrastructure: power, roads,
communications, water supply, sanitation, schools, health
centres, etc. for initially 1,500 new people every day. Controlling
population must be a priority during the Master Plan period and
beyond.
Water resources availability can also be used to illustrate the

impact of population growth. One measure of the relative water
‘richness’ of a region is the annual per capita water resources
availability. This is a simple indicator of whether an area is in a
state of water scarcity or water surplus, based on the total
runoff of the area in question. Generally, annual per capita
water availability above 2,000 m3 is considered water secure.
Once it drops below 1,700 m3 a state of water stress exists, with
a high level of risk in dry or drought years. As it drops below
1,000 m3, it is considered to be water scarce, in which the
consequences are more severe and the risks of such disasters as

crop failure are much greater. When a region is in a state or
water scarcity problems with access to safe domestic water
supplies and water for food production become chronic.
With an estimated total water resource of 5,312 Mm 3 in the

RVLB, in 1992 the annual per capita water availability was 728
m3, already into a water scarcity situation. This has now
declined to 597 m3 per person per annum and will become 232
m3 per person per annum by the end of the MP period - a
situation of extreme water scarcity. Note that the difference
between these years – in per capita water availability – is due to
population increase only. The total water resource remains the
same. From this we can see that water is a major constraint to
development of the RVLB and the intensity of this constraint will
strengthen. We can also see that dealing with the population
growth issue is crucial.
The higher the population growth rate, the more difficult it is to

meet the targets of economic growth. The priority for
development must be controlling the population growth rate,
during the Master Plan period and beyond.
To date the problem has not been taken up purposefully in

Ethiopia. Other countries have succeeded in reducing growth
rates through public awareness and social pressure to limit
family sizes. Increasing education, especially for women, is the
most important and effective intervention. Current literacy rates
in the RVLB are very low, especially in rural areas, and
especially for women. Increasing the levels of education will also
increase the productivity of the people of the basin in general.
This will also reduce population growth rates.
4.2 Gender
Gender issues and the improvement of the socioeconomic

conditions of women and youths are also important cross cutting
issues. Education is a primary element of development, and the
education of girls and women is of particular importance, among
other reasons because of the strong link between the education
of women and reducing population growth. Also, as half of the
population, the potential contribution of women to economic

activities in the basin is tremendous, further driving growth of
RGDP. Empowering women to create income generating
activities, either in the home or as business operators, would
accelerate economic growth. Improving the status of women
must be a priority for government during the Master Plan
period.
4.3 Agricultural Productivity
4.3.1 Situation
Agricultural productivity in the RVLB is extremely low. Typical
yields are shown in Table 4.2.

Typical crop yields for different farm types
Farm type Average yields (tonnes per ha)
Cereals Pulses Oilsee Vegetabl
ds es
Rainfed
subsistence <1 ha 1.69 0.87 0.51 6.09
Rainfed
smallholder <1 ha 1.69 1.07 0.72 8.43
Irrigated
smallholder <1 ha 2.35 1.81 1.63 15.48
Irrigated state
farm 4.13 1.70 1.00 14.40
Looking at cereals and pulses as an example, yields for rainfed

subsistence and smallholder farms are between one third and
one quarter of what yields could be under good husbandry.
Irrigation raises yields but, as can be seen from the table,
irrigation alone does not go far enough.
However low the productivity, agriculture is the economic and

social base of the RVLB, with crop production accounting for
38% of RGDP and employing some 80% of the population.
Percentage contribution to RGDP will change during the period
of the Master Plan, as industry grows and other forms of

commercial activity develop. But the direct monetary
contribution from agriculture must grow and continue to be a
major contributor to the economy, directly as well as indirectly
through agro-industries.
4.3.2 Low Productivity and Poverty

Such low yields on small landholdings make it impossible to
support a family, which forces people to exploit other natural
resources just to survive. With poverty reduction as one of two
main objectives of this Master Plan, agricultural productivity
must be a key focus.
During the Master Plan period and beyond the priority for
agriculture must be a move away from peasant, smallholder
based, subsistence farming and toward a more commercial,
more efficient form of farming with markets as their point of
reference. It is well understood that peasant farming is a
poverty trap. There is an immediate aspect in that farm families
cannot earn enough to live on from the crops they produce.
There are also indirect aspects because farmers do not have the
means to develop any sort of buffer or guard against natural or
other occurrences which damage their livelihoods or increase
their costs in some way. Additionally, the low productivity wastes
land, water, human and other resources. All efforts put into
developing agriculture need to be directed toward increasing
productivity.
4.3.3 Improving Agricultural Extension

Farmers cannot make the changes needed to improve
agricultural productivity by themselves. They need to be
educated and trained in several subjects including agronomy,
resource use, farming as a business, markets, etc. At present the
extension services (mainly the Farmer Training Centres) are
understaffed and underfunded. In addition, most of the staff that
are in place don’t have the skills for subjects related to business
elements of farming, markets, etc. that need to be passed on to
farmers. Improvement of FTCs must be an immediate priority
and remain so until they are properly staffed and funded. New
directions and new services need to be supplied by them, to lead
farmers toward greater productivity and to teach them about
markets and the business of agriculture. There must be a new

design in their scope and direction, and a strategy to develop
them.
4.4 Land Tenure
Perhaps the single biggest barrier to overcome in agriculture is

the small landholdings. They are currently averaging 0.8 ha per
farm in the RVLB as a whole, but that figure is skewed by a
small number of large farms. The average among smallholder
farms is down to 0.4 ha. In either case, they are too small to
support a family. Not being able to support a family means the
farmers remain in the poverty cycle, which in turn means they
cannot afford to make the investments needed to improve their
productivity, so that they contribute little to the RGDP of the
basin and remain in poverty. Landholding size must increase if
poverty reduction is to be achieved. The law does not allow
farmers (and others) to own their land, and this prevents any
increase in average farm size.
To increase productivity farmers need to invest. It has been

proven time and again that they will not invest if the land they
are investing in is not theirs. Farming is not very productive in
Ethiopia, and anywhere farming is productive, farmers own
their land. Addressing the land tenure issue has mostly been
avoided over the last decade and more. Change is occurring
now, in that land use certificates are being distributed to
farmers; this is a step in the right direction, but not really
sufficient to affect the level of change necessary to bring them
out of poverty. It is hoped that the next step will be to give
farmers ownership of their land.
Additionally, not all farmers who are currently working the land
will wish to continue farming. As other jobs are made available
through industrial expansion, many may choose to sell their
farms. More ambitious farmers will want to buy them to become
even more productive. Land ownership is necessary to buy and
sell land; this is another reason why the land tenure laws need
to change.
The continuing conflict between pastoralist grazing and

sedentary agriculture is also a consequence of the inability to

own land. Once farmers own land they will have the right to not
allow nomadic grazing on it. This will mean some land will need
to be set aside as community or regional administration run
pastures or rangelands, but will have deliver the combined
benefits of reducing potential for conflict and reducing the
damage livestock can do.
4.5 Productivity and Population of Livestock
Although most livestock in the basin are well adapted to the

local environment, their productivity with respect to milk, meat,
eggs and reproduction is low. The age for sexual maturity is
advanced, the interval between births is long and productive life
is short. This is associated with genetic make-up, uncontrolled
breeding, feed types and availability, and disease.
The prevalence of diseases and parasites is a significant issue in

livestock production, causing large scale death of animals with
consequent economic as well as social impact. Uncontrolled
livestock slaughter outside of abattoirs encourages the
transmission of livestock diseases. The animal health services
are inadequately staffed and funded to counteract disease. The
cost of drugs is very high and diagnostic services are not readily
available to livestock owners.
Feed sources are low in quantity and quality. Feed is sufficient

only for maintenance (keeping the animal alive) and probably
less the 15% of total feed contributes to production. Animal
numbers are increasing at a rate far beyond growth in available
feed.
Most livestock are of indigenous types, usually with low genetic

make-up. Where improvements have been made, they have not
been conserved. Introduction of improved exotic animals can be
beneficial, but is hazardous in the absence of a good breeding
programme. Currently, there is such free movement of livestock
that cross-breeding is uncontrolled, resulting in a high tendency
for diluting and damaging the genetic make-up of productive
animal types. Certainly developing a breeding programme is a
good first step in increasing productivity.

Perhaps the most important issue is the absence of a clear
livestock development policy and strategy. Livestock populations
are out of control, damage to land is increasing and the main
problem of overpopulation is apparently not being taken
seriously. However, there are a few areas, notably around Asela,
where local administration is taking matters into their own
hands and placing controls on livestock. These limited
programmes have led to greater attention to feed sources and to
breeding, as well as to ensuring animals are productive. They
could be good models to follow in other areas.
4.6 Water Resources and Management
4.6.1 Surface Water Resources - Situation

about 5,300 Mm3/year, calculated from total annual average
river flow into the lake systems under ‘natural’ conditions
without human abstractions. This amounts to a current per
capita water availability of 597 m 3, which is well below the
threshold of ‘water scarcity’, defined as 1000 m3 per person per
annum. The figure will decline to 232 m 3 per person per annum
by the end of the MP period because of population growth,
which is a situation of extreme water scarcity.
Because of the existence of the lakes, many people erroneously

assume that the RVLB is a water rich basin. This is not true.
Most lakes are shallow, with only a limited volume, and are
already overused where they are usable. Most lakes are of such
low water quality they cannot be used for human needs (see
Section 4.6.2 below). The only sustainable water resources in
the basin are the rivers that feed the lakes. Most of these are
already overtaxed and pollution is a growing issue.
Water resources are even now the main constraint to

development of the RVLB and are already at or near their limit
of sustainable exploitation. Scope for further large scale
development of high water use subsectors, such as irrigation, is
extremely limited. Water for domestic use is the priority under
national policy, and available water in excess of that demand will
likely be most economically used for industries.

The RVLB is a hydrologically closed basin, which means that
there is no surface water outlet. There may be some outlet to
groundwater (though there is no evidence to show it) but
otherwise water leaves the basin only through evaporation and
transpiration. This means that the RVLB is highly sensitive to
changes in the water use regime. Very careful consideration
must be given to the development of certain sectors, to ensure
that the water resources are not overtaxed.
4.6.2 Surface Water Quality

With the exception of Lake Ziway and Lake Langano, all lakes in
the RVLB are terminal, meaning no surface water outlet. With
no outlet other than evaporation, terminal lakes mineralise and
become alkaline. There is a chemical balance as well as a water
balance. If the balance is maintained, alkalinity will remain
generally constant within human lifespan terms. Once the
balance is upset through overuse of water, either from the lake
directly or from the feeding rivers, alkalinity will increase.
This has already happened in a highly visible way in Lake

Abiyata. Abiyata is fed from Lake Ziway and Lake Langano.
Large and small scale irrigation in the rivers feeding Lake Ziway
and from the lake itself, have caused a great reduction in flows
out of Ziway and through the Bulbula River to Abiyata. There
has not been a similar overuse of water in the Lake Langano
catchment, but its contribution to Abiyata is far less than that of
Ziway. Lake levels in Abiyata have declined markedly over the
last couple of decades as a result. Alkalinity has increased
accordingly and water quality can no longer support fish. The
aquatic birds that fed on those fish are no longer there.
Table 3.3 in Section 3.4.5 above, shows the water quality of the
lakes of the basin. It is clear from that table that in terms of
alkalinity:
 Ziway is good, suitable for drinking water and irrigation;

 Awasa is marginally suitable for irrigation; and
 all the remaining lakes are not suitable.

In terms of drinking water, only Ziway is suitable because Awasa
is also contaminated with higher than acceptable fluoride
concentrations.
The issue of water quality does not end with alkalinity and
fluoride. There are localised concerns over industrial pollution,
for example from the coffee washing factories in the highland
coffee growing areas. The pollution is bad enough that towns
which use river water for their urban water supply in those
areas stop abstracting during the coffee washing season. This
leaves the population without good access to water and they
must revert to unsafe sources, putting them at greater risk of
water borne diseases.
The prevalence of water borne diseases linked to poor water

quality is high in the RVLB, which is a direct result of poor
sanitation. In rural areas proper sanitation is almost
nonexistent. Worse, in urban areas, water borne sanitation is
also almost non-existent. Towns are served with pit latrines and
septic tanks only and waste water from tanks is dumped
untreated in undisclosed locations. This is very poor practice at
any time but with the rapidly growing urban populations over
the MP period, the pollution of both surface and groundwater
from untreated waste water will become a massive problem
unless it is addressed early.
4.6.3 Groundwater Resources

Groundwater resources are an essential element in the
development of the basin, particularly in the development of
sources of water supplies for urban and rural domestic use.
Borehole sources in the basin provide over 50% of town
supplies, and springs 41%. Supplies from surface water or rivers
are estimated to be no more than about 8% of town supply.
Groundwater development has progressed in recent years,

although there remain significant issues in the provision of
supplies. Major improvements could be made, many of which
relate to technical capacity. The move from groundwater
development to proactive groundwater management is essential
given the nature, distribution and constraints on groundwater
resources in the basin.

The complexity of groundwater systems is such that it has been
difficult to provide a robust overall picture of the available
groundwater resource within the basin. This results from the
distributed (and possibly discreet) nature of groundwater
resources within the basin (i.e. there is not necessarily a
continuum between groundwater bodies) and the limited
amount of information on interaction both with surface water
bodies (whether the lakes or river and stream systems) and with
other, adjacent groundwater bodies.
As noted in Section 3.4.7, the groundwater resource estimate

undertaken for the Master Plan is necessarily conservative, but
may be improved as further information is gathered and as more
proactive groundwater management is introduced; for long term
planning it will be essential to develop these monitoring and
management procedures. Further discussion on the need for
management of these resources is provided in Section 7.4.6.
Constraints on groundwater resources development and

management, as identified in the Phase 1 report, are significant:
 The complexity of hydrogeological systems lead to a poor

understanding of groundwater recharge/discharge and
hence groundwater storage, flow, interactions with surface
water and water quality.
 The distribution of hydrogeological systems as subsets of the
entire basin and their interdependence on geology, rainfall,
surface water drainage etc.
 Data availability and data management.
 Low numbers and limited availability of suitably trained and
qualified staff.
 Poor availability of groundwater management tools (e.g.
mapping, database, monitoring programmes).
 Inadequate management processes at a local level (i.e.
appropriate to the hydrogeological systems within the
basin).
 The financial resources (and commitment) necessary to
maintain ongoing, proactive groundwater management and
development.

 A commitment to development of resources (e.g.
implementing new supplies) over and above the (resources)
management of existing supplies.
Groundwater development is further hindered by:
 poor well construction and use of inappropriate materials

(which may not always result from poor specifications, but
from a lack of supervision and poor implementation)
 significant groundwater quality constraints within the basin,
most notably fluoride, but also, and to a lesser extent, highly
mineralised waters (see further below)
 a local lack of awareness of constraints to the sustainable
development of groundwater (i.e. the finite nature of such
resources).
4.6.4 Groundwater Quality

The natural quality of groundwater in the basin is influenced
fundamentally by:
 the quality of the recharging water (whether this be from

rainfall, from rivers and streams or from lakes)
 the composition (and solubility characteristics) of the
geological strata through which it passes
 the residence time and flow rate within that strata
 the depth of penetration of the groundwater
 the mode of discharge of that groundwater (e.g. salinisation
of groundwater at points of groundwater discharge and
evaporation).
The hydrogeological complexity of the basin is reflected in the

significant variations of the quality of the groundwater within
the basin.
Natural groundwater may be a mix of both freshly recharging

water from a number of sources and of deep seated
groundwater, with the chemical composition (and physical
properties such as temperature) reflecting that mix. Highly
mineralised thermal waters mixing with shallower cooler waters
significantly influence groundwater quality.

Groundwater quality reflects the origins of the groundwater and
influences on that groundwater, typically:
 sodium and bicarbonate are the dominant major cations and

anions
 fluoride concentrations are high, particularly (although not
exclusively) in the valley floor
 F concentrations are particularly high in areas of, or
influenced by, deep seated thermal waters or near areas of
recent vulcanicity (e.g. around the Corbetti caldera)
 most water are alkaline, in the pH range 7-9, although
occasionally higher
 groundwater quality improves markedly near fresh
recharging streams and rivers, similarly it is better near
points of groundwater recharge, especially in the highland
areas (this was noted from field surveys around the Meki
river)
 groundwater quality generally improves in the immediate
vicinity of the lakes, where these recharge groundwater
 groundwater generally appears of better quality at higher
elevations
 near points of discharge or of slow and sluggish
groundwater movement groundwater quality, unless
regularly flushed, can be poor due to concentration of salts
by evaporation (the poor quality of groundwater in the Weito
Valley, appears to be an example of this).
The key water quality parameter of concern in the basin is

fluoride, which is widespread in groundwater of the basin and is
a major constraint to water supply. Fluoride concentration
frequently exceeds the WHO guideline level of 1.5 mg/l.
Naturally high fluoride concentrations are widely distributed,
although the area around Lake Awasa is particularly notable for
high concentrations of fluoride – both in the lacustrine
sediments and in waters associated with the Corbetti complex.
Similar high concentrations are found in the areas of Lakes
Shala, Abiyata, Langano, Abaya and Chitu.
This concentration of high fluoride is a major issue for water

supply in RVLB as it has a significant negative impact on health.

Fluoride in waters at a concentration of 3 mg/l will cause mild
fluorosis (mottling of teeth). Higher fluoride levels in drinking
waters cause both dental and skeletal fluorosis resulting serious
public health problems.
4.6.5 Water Resources Management

Currently, water is used in the RVLB without planning or
regulation and without monitoring. Good water management is
crucial to the future of the RVLB, because the water resources
are extremely limited; it is already in a state of water scarcity
and it is very sensitive to changes in the water use regime.
Increasing abstractions without understanding their impacts
and without regulation simply cannot continue.
To date there has been no organisation within the MoWR

structure or within the regional bureaux of water resources
which has the responsibility to control water use and manage
water at a basin level according to the principles of Integrated
Water Resources Management (IWRM). However, this is now
changing.
River Basin Organisations (RBOs) have been established in law

in Ethiopia (2007) and can now be implemented. A department
has been set up in the MoWR to facilitate the institution of RBOs
and the process of creating the Abbay RBO is already underway.
The development of this Master Plan is a good opportunity to
begin establishing the RVLB RBO, as there is focus of the overall
development of the basin, with emphasis on water resources.
Work toward the RVLB RBO is expected to begin this year
(2008).
The importance of good water management, through an

organisation such as the RBO, cannot be overstated. The RVLB
will develop over these next three decades, changing the
dynamics of the basin, increasing water demands, increasing
pressure on the limited water resource and on the environment
of the basin. The lakes themselves are fragile ecosystems, but
can also be good resources if they are properly managed. How
and how well the watershed is managed and protected is of
great importance to the sustainability of the basin and its social
and economic development.

At present irrigation is the largest user of water in the basin,
followed by domestic water supply. The proportional water use
by sector will change over the next decades as industry
develops. With water as a constraint, the main question to be
asked is “…which is the best use of water and the best way to
use it for the development interests in the basin?” An RBO is
best placed to gather the interests of stakeholders on such a
question and coordinate them to make decisions on water
allocation.
Most environmental issues are assessed by the EPA or its

regional equivalents without consideration of the basin as a
whole. Watershed management, a key part of the work of the
RBO, considers all aspects of the environment as well as water
use. Two watershed management prefeasibility studies are
being prepared as part of the Master Plan Study, and can be
used as examples of good practice in preparing watershed
management plans.
4.7 Climate Change
The following is a synopsis of the impacts of climate change on

the water resources of the RVLB. For further detail on climate
change and other aspects of the hydrology of the basin, the
reader is directed to Annex A of this document, Water Resources
and Modelling.
The impact of climate change on the water resources of the

basin has been assessed using a climate change scenario based
on output from the Global Climatic Model (GCM), together with
scenarios used in other climate change studies for Ethiopia
(Kinfe, 1999, Deksios et al., 2000, Zeray et al., 2002). The
change is essentially an increase in temperature of +2 oC
resulting in a 10% increase of evapotranspiration, and a 10%
decrease of rainfall over the Master Plan period of 30 years; a
relatively high impact scenario. Overall, this result in a
reduction in total annual surface runoff of 24% compared to
present day runoff.
Presently, the total available surface water resources of the

RVLB is estimated at about 5,183 Mm 3/year calculated from

total average river flow into the lake system under ‘existing’
conditions with abstractions for irrigation and water supplies for
domestic and industrial use. The water balance modelling shows
that climate change reduces the total available surface water
resources of the RVLB to approximately 3,939 Mm 3/year, a
decrease of 1,244 Mm3/year. The response of the RVLB lakes to
climate change show a continual decline in lake levels over the
Master Plan period, as shown in Table 4.3 and Table 4.4.
Reduction in levels in Lake Ziway also has an impact on Lake

Abiyata, as this is the equivalent of a 25% reduction in flow in
the Bulbula River. As an illustration, the impact of climate
change on Lake Abiyata is far greater than that of the Soda Ash
factory running at current full capacity producing 20,000 tonnes
per year. Lake Abiyata levels fall dramatically due to climate
change, reducing lake area by 29%, and by the end of year 2034
the lake area has declined to 58 km2.
The impact of climate change on Lake Abaya is of the same

order of magnitude as that caused by developing all planned
irrigation within Lake Abaya basin. Because Lakes Abaya and
Chamo are connected, most of the impact is on Lake Chamo.
The lake level changes in Chamo in response to climate change
follow the same pattern and magnitude as those experienced
when all future planned irrigation is development in both Lake
Abaya and Chamo basins.

Long term average lake level response to
climate change
Lake Level All Planned Climat Change in
threshold planned irrigatio e area due to
10% of irrigatio n chang climate
mean lake n e change (%)
level
LTA Lake level change (m)
Ziway -0.11 -1.30 -0.05 -0.57 -10.7
Abiyat -0.64
a -0.64 -0.64 -1.28 -17.0
Langa -0.13
no -0.10 -0.10 -1.08 -3.1
Shala -0.18 -0.46 -0.07 -1.74 -0.6
Awasa -0.19 -11.05 -0.26 -1.39 -5.5
Abaya -0.20 -0.03 (-
*
-1.66 0.15) -1.73 -9.5
Cham -1.00 -1.38 (-
o* -6.50 1.28) -6.87 -18.5
*
Note: 1st no. is for 1,500 ha in Abaya basin & 4,000 ha in Chamo, 2 nd no. in
brackets is for 5500 ha in Abaya basin only
**
Note: All Planned irrigation is for 10,000 ha in Awasa, 1,500 ha in Abaya &
4,000 ha in Chamo basins

Lake level in 2035 in response to climate
change
Lake Level All Planned Climat Change in
threshold planned irrigatio e area due to
10% of irrigatio n chang climate
average n e change (%)
lake level
LTA Lake level Change (m)
Ziway -0.11 -1.73 -0.10 -0.60 -12.2
Abiyat -0.64
a -1.57 -0.67 -1.26 -28.9
Langa -0.13
no -0.20 -0.20 -2.05 -10.0
Shala -0.18 -0.92 -0.14 -3.20 -2.9
Awasa -0.19 -17.81 -0.44 -2.07 -8.2

Abaya -0.20 -0.03 (-
*
-3.15 0.12) -2.76 -14.4
Cham -1.00 -2.72 (-
o* -12.14 3.12) -12.11 -38.4
*
Note: 1st no. is for 1,500 ha in Abaya basin & 4,000 ha in Chamo, 2 nd no. in
brackets is for 5500 ha in Abaya basin only
**
Note: All Planned irrigation is for 10,000 ha in Awasa, 1,500 ha in Abaya &
4,000 ha in Chamo basins
Overall, the impact of climate change on the RVLB is high,

which is expected as most of the lakes are terminal in nature.
Furthermore, if climate change coincides with additional
proposed irrigation in the RVLB, decreases in all the lakes will
be exacerbated and further environmental and economic
damage will occur.
4.8 Drought
4.8.1 Drought in Ethiopia

Severe rainfall shortages have occurred in Ethiopia in 1965,
1969, 1973, 1977, 1978-1979, 1983-1984, 1987, 1989-1992,
2000 and 2002. The great frequency of these occurrences of low
rainfall means they are not actually droughts. Droughts are
somewhat rare events, by the proper definition (see Section
4.8.3 below). Most of these are simply periods of lower than
normal rainfall. This may seem a semantic argument but it is
important to make the distinction, because the issue here is that
poor, rural Ethiopians are at risk to even moderate declines in
the rainfall regime.
The most recent occurrences resulted in four years of limited

food production and severely depleted the asset base of the
population across much of the country. The worst year was 2002
when below average spring (Belg) rains in March to May were
followed by delayed and sporadic main rains from July to
September, which led to widespread food insecurity.
The worst hit areas were the pastoral and agricultural areas of
the lowlands and midlands for the SNNPRS, Tigray, Oromiya,
Amhara, Somali and Afar Regions. An estimated 13.2 million

Ethiopians faced food shortages. The consequences of low
rainfall continued after the rains returned because of the time
lag before crops can be harvested again. Even by the start of
2006 (which was a particularly wet year) much of lowland
Oromiya was still affected by food shortages. This year (2008),
the lateness of the Belg rains in the Borena area resulted in loss
of livestock and food insecurity for the people.
Bartel and Muller (2007) review the probability of annual

droughts in the Horn of Africa region. They define a moderate to
severe drought to have occurred in a given month when the
average rainfall over a three-month period centred on that
month is at least 1.5 standard deviations below the long-term
monthly average rainfall. They reviewed droughts that occurred
during the agriculturally important rainy seasons for the record
1986 to 2006. The definition of a drought on the basis of a three
month period reflects the high dependency of many of the
population on the current year’s harvest for survival. Bartel and
Muller identified eastern and western Ethiopia and western
Kenya as the regions mostly affected by drought in the Horn of
Africa. They also note that the risks associated with drought,
based on the density of agricultural production/km 2 are greatest
in south west Ethiopia and western Kenya. This figure also
shows that within the RVLB, the annual probability of drought
lies in the range 26-35%.
4.8.2 Definition of Drought

Drought is a recurrent feature of climate which is rare, but not
exceptionally so. All climatic zones experience drought, but its
characteristics and impacts can vary significantly. While drought
is a hydrometeorological phenomenon, its importance is in its
sociological, environmental and economic impacts. Importantly,
the occurrence and especially the impact of drought are often
exacerbated by humans. Deforestation over large areas can
increase the frequency and magnitude of droughts. Land
degradation in the form of erosion and soil loss can worsen the
impact of drought on livelihoods, especially in poor, smallholder
agricultural areas. Both deforestation and land degradation are
features of the landscape of the RVLB.
Drought is a temporary event and is not related to areas of

normally low rainfall, nor is it worse in such areas. There are

many methods of defining drought, but all are associated with a
deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time,
which may be one season or several years. Usually drought is
considered as a degree of variation relative to long term
average, or “normal” conditions of rainfall and often has a time
element to do with the duration of the event. What is considered
normal and the degree of variation to define drought varies from
region to region as climates vary.
In Ethiopia the meteorological aspect of risk is defined through

rainfall variance from the normal. The coefficient of variance is
calculated over specific areas and set up into three ranges
based on percentage of variation:
0 to 20% variation = low risk

20% to 30% variation = medium risk
Above 30% = high risk
4.8.3 Assessment of Drought Risk in the RVLB

The drought risk areas of the RVLB are shown in Figure 4.1.
This was determined through calculating the coefficient of
variance for each subcatchment in the RVLB and then grouped
according to the Ethiopian definition of drought prone areas as
described above. As can be seen in this figure there are only two
small areas which are considered drought prone, based on the
MoWR definition of drought prone areas, as described above.
However, it is also the case that emergencies happen on a
regular basis and are often quite severe.

Figure KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES IN THE RVLB.9:
Drought prone index

During this year (2008) several weredas in the RVLB have
received emergency aid in food and water. In the Oromiya part
of the RVLB these weredas include: Teltele, Bula Hora, Yabelo,
Siraro, Shala, Dugda Dawa. In the SNNPRS part of the RVLB,
the weredas include: Bonsa, Awasa Zuria, Mirab Abaya, Bonke,
Humbo, Damot Weyde, Boreda, Arba Minch Zuria, Bena Tsemay,
East Badawacho, West Badawacho, Welayita, Sodo Zuria, Alaba
Special Wereda. The previous main rainy season of 2007 was a
period of relatively high rainfall. The emergency of this year was
caused by late and lower than normal rainfall during the Belg
rainy period – not a drought. The immediate impact was a
failure of the traditional ponds and shallow wells.
This suggests that the people of these areas, and others, are
highly vulnerable to even minor reductions in rainfall. This
further suggests that such a situation should not necessitate an
emergency response, but requires development of proper water
supply systems and a different approach to agriculture and food
security. Improving traditional ponds and wells needs to be
undertaken, but as an urgent development task and not under
emergency measures.
4.8.4 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness

There is a national level Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
Agency which looks after all aspects of disaster planning,
including drought. The MoWR also has a division for Emergency
Response Unit specific to water related issues, especially
drought. They coordinate humanitarian partners, such as
UNOCHA and others, for food and water aid. Responses would
include water rationing, trucking water in from elsewhere, etc.
4.9 Forest Cover and Biomass
It is generally assumed that Ethiopia and the RVLB have

suffered considerable deforestation and that the process of
deforestation is continuing apace. However, given the long
standing history of settled peoples in the country over the last
4,000 years and the lack of data in modern times on recent and
ongoing rates of deforestation, it is difficult to arrive at any
quantification of deforestation. Since most of the population
lives in the Ethiopian Highlands, there is no reason to suppose

that this was not the case 500 years ago, and that much of the
tree clearance might have been historic.
The earliest historical references such as the writings of Prester

John, who travelled in Ethiopia in the early sixteenth century,
describe the Ethiopian Highlands as extensively cultivated with
many trees and few closed forests. A summary of historical
writings concluded that the Ethiopian forests were of limited
extent and at their maximum during the 19th century.
Comparative analysis of photographs taken in the 1930s and
1990s indicate no significant difference in the loss of trees.
Notwithstanding the above, anecdotal evidence points to
continued loss or thinning of forest reserves over recent
decades.
Evidence of land use change exists but mappable evidence of

deforestation is difficult to find. Phase 1 of the current study
mapped land use change and showed that forested areas have
generally remained the same as in 1992 with some areas of
expansion and some of contraction. There is evidence, though,
of forest and woodland degradation as trees are cut down on
farmland and not replaced.
The Woody Biomass Project distinguished between

Deforestation (the permanent conversion of forest and woodland
to non-forest land cover) and Degradation (a gradual erosion of
wood stocks) and found that, in terms of wood lost, degradation
far exceeds deforestation. For instance in Oromiya in 2000, 7.8
million tons of wood was lost by degradation compared to 2.7
million tons by deforestation and in SNNPRS the figures were
2.8 million tons and 0.4 million tons.
There is evidence for land use change and degradation of the

woody biomass stock within the RVLB. The Woody Biomass
Project undertook an assessment of the changes in land cover
between Ziway and Adami Tulu between 1967 and 2000 and
found a sharp increase in rainfed cultivation (particularly
between 1967 and 1972), largely at the expense of open and
dense woodland, but that the rate of increase of cultivation
slowed dramatically from 1972 onwards. Similarly a study by
Wageningen University in the northern RVLB noted land use
changes from 1973 to 2006 which showed an increase in

cultivated land (both irrigated and rainfed) and degraded
savanna and a decrease in woodland areas. A study by WWDSE
around Lake Awasa showed that the area of cultivated land
increased from 34% to 55% between 1965 and 1998 and
correspondingly the area under natural vegetation decreased
from 57% to 37%.
These findings tie in with research into land use change in other
parts of Ethiopia which has indicated that the greatest
expansion in cultivated land in Gojam occurred between 1957
and 1982 (about 78%) and slowed down between 1982 and 1995
(only 10%) because almost no land was left for further
expansion. However research has also indicated the decline in
natural forest areas with a conversion to shrubland (S. Wollo)
and the increase in highly degraded bare land (Ambo) although
this is offset in some areas such as Guraghe by a large increase
(170%) in eucalyptus plantations.
Phase 1 of the current study looked at fuelwood supply in the

RVLB and indicated 84% is from natural vegetation, of which
about 65% is from shrublands and woodlands and only 16%
from plantations. The fuel wood demand and current availability
was calculated per wereda. It indicated that, apart from Amaro
Special Wereda and the Borana and South Omo Zones, all other
zones and weredas are critically deficient, with the total demand
greatly exceeding the annual yield from the available biomass
stock, and that the planting of 870,762 ha of woodland is
required.
According to the Phase 1 Multisector Household Survey, 89% of

farmers and pastoralists have indicated that grazing land
degradation and overgrazing are common problems; a common
theme from an analysis of land use change dynamics in Phase 2
has been the loss of grazing land to cultivation in the past 10
years. It is generally understood (and is shown in our MP
analysis) that livestock numbers in the RVLB greatly exceed the
optimum and that a considerable amount of land degradation is
caused by livestock. In some areas livestock numbers have been
reduced but they need to be reduced further and coupled with a
commensurate increase in productivity per animal.

4.10 Soil Erosion and Land Degradation
Almost two thirds of the RVLB is either high or extreme in

erosion hazard because of the steep valley sides and the fragile
soil structure. Intensive farming and poor farming methods have
resulted in significant land degradation over many areas of the
basin.
As the Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) for Ethiopia

(World Bank, 2004) indicated, the country’s principal
environmental issues involve complex cross-sectoral linkages.
One of the key environment -- development linkages identified
relates to the land degradation – food insecurity – energy access
– livelihood nexus. This includes unsustainable agricultural land
management practices such as cultivating steep slopes without
protective measures and heavy reliance on biomass energy.
The use of biomass accelerates the rate of deforestation and

erosion while the use of crop residues and dung as fuel, rather
than returning this organic matter to the soil, causes a decline
in soil fertility and deterioration in soil structure. The degraded
land is then more prone to erosion, leading to further loss of
fertility in the topsoil and to a reduction in soil depth, both of
which can have an adverse effect on crop yields. The
consequences of deforestation and degraded soil structure
include greater runoff which contributes to erosion and siltation,
less infiltration of rainfall which diminishes groundwater
recharge; and reduced water storage capacity in the soil which
makes crops less able to withstand drought.
The loss of forest cover, in turn, is generally associated with

greater hydrological variability. Associated sedimentation
compromises productivity and shortens the lifespan of water
infrastructure for river regulation, municipal water supplies,
agriculture and hydropower generation. The reduced regulation
capacity also increases flood risks for downstream communities,
which poses a particular risk to the poorest who tend to live in
the most vulnerable locations.
Declining agricultural productivity inhibits investments in land

management and encourages the extension of agricultural lands
rather than intensification of production. This leads to further

land degradation – closing a vicious circle that leaves the
landscape increasingly vulnerable to drought and rainfall-
related erosion, and drives and deepens poverty.
Soil degradation is a self-reinforcing and accelerating process (a

downward vicious cycle) with impacts throughout the system;
impacts which invariably lead to declining rural standards of
living. Soil degradation is initiated by human activities, under
pressure from population expansion and in the absence of
effective alternatives.
Clearance and cultivation of land is generally the initial activity,

leading directly to erosion through exposure and disturbance of
the soil. Biomass diversion from the land (for forage and fuel)
increases erosion directly through increasing exposure
(decreased surface cover) and decreasing soil resistance to
erosion. However, there is also an indirect effect through
reduced productivity, especially from reduced soil moisture and
nutrient holding capacity. This in turn stimulates a search for
more land, either through extension of cultivation or through
decrease in fallow periods.
Reduced biomass production also leads to more intensive use of

biomass -- crop residues, woody vegetation, and surrounding
grassy areas -- for forage and fuel. The increased diversion of
biomass further decreases soil productivity and increases
erosion potential. Effective soil conservation requires breaking
this cycle of degradation; technical responses to soil erosion are
well known, but the causes are usually social, economic and
political.
Key issues therefore are population increase (the population of

the RVLB has increased by an average of 3.5% a year from 5.75
million in 1992 to 9.6 million currently) leading to increased
land pressure, which when coupled with land tenure insecurity
lead to soil erosion and land degradation. These manifest
themselves in land use change in terms of sudden change, such
as clearing of land for agriculture, as well as gradual change
(land cover degradation) through biomass collection.

4.11 Water Quality and Public Health
Most people in the RVLB do not have access to safe water

supplies. In urban areas official statistics are that 54% of
residents do have access to safe water. However, the statistics
hide the fact that supplies are often intermittent and that very
little of the water is potable without in-home treatment such as
boiling. In rural areas access is lower. Official statistics are 44%
but the definitions of ‘access’ and ‘safe’ obscure the fact that
most rural people get their water from open sources. The impact
of this in both urban and rural environments is frequent illness.
Water-borne disease, particularly those associated with unsafe
water supplies, is the main health issue in Ethiopia, including
the RVLB. Poor water supply is the leading cause of diarrhoea,
typhoid, cholera and related diseases. Frequent illness means a
loss of productivity whether in the agricultural sectors or in
industry. For effective economic growth, good health is
essential.
The lack of proper sanitation contributes to the problem, as it is

the main cause of contaminated water. Even the high density
urban areas of the RVLB do not have proper sanitation
collection and disposal systems. They have either pit latrines or
septic tanks. Waste is collected and disposed of untreated,
creating greater health problems in the vicinity of, or
downstream of, disposal sites. Efforts are now being put into
increasing the density of pit latrines and septic tanks, but there
is little understanding of the need for and value of water borne
sewerage and proper waste water treatment and disposal.
In the rural environment the situation is worse, with only 10% of

people having access to pit latrines or similar. The other 90%
use open areas wherever they may be found. Efforts are now
being made in the rural environment in getting pit latrines
installed.
Lack of health education has resulted in a very limited

understanding of the link between hygiene and health among
the majority of the population, which further contributes to the
poor health.

4.12 Fish Stocks
The RVLB contains most of the productive lakes in Ethiopia and

the potential fish resources are high. However, the present level
of exploitation is lower than a few years ago and all lakes exhibit
the effects of overfishing due to improper fishing and
management practices – in short, the lack of regulation and
enforcement.
Reliable fish catch statistics are not readily available but general
conclusions can be inferred by comparing reports from years
apart. Earlier estimates (1990s) of production ranged from
15,000 to 19,000 tonnes per year, but current production,
estimated from other sources, is estimated at only 8,500 tonnes
per year. If these estimates are correct it suggests a large scale
decline in fish stocks in the RVLB.
These numbers are supported by discussions with fishermen

during the time of the MP study. All fishermen complain about
reduced fish catches in terms of numbers and in terms of fish
sizes. Fishermen have reduced mesh sizes in their nets (beyond
legal limits) in order to catch the smaller fish. In Lake Chamo,
the fisheries cooperative has reduced from over 120 members to
less than 70 because there are not enough fish on which to base
a livelihood.
The above problems all relate to overfishing. There has been no

regulation, no enforcement of regulations, and even the national
laws on fisheries have not been enacted by the two regional
governments. Fishing in unlicensed and anyone can become a
fisherman if they wish. Many are not ‘traditional’ fishermen but
are opportunists hoping to make a little money or obtain some
food for their families. Post catch losses are very large as fish
are caught and landed in areas where there may be no buyers
and the fish are left too long and ruined.
Declining water quality has also adversely affected fish stocks.

Lake Abiyata is now devoid of fish due to reduced water quality
as the lake volumes have declined. This is the worst case, but
less dramatic water quality declines are seen in other lakes and
the fate of the fish will be similar if the trend is not reversed.

While fisheries make up only a small part of the RGDP (0.5%),
fishing is an important local employer and fish provide an
important source of food for local populations and for urban
dwellers who represent a growing market for fish.
4.13 Wildlife Biodiversity
Wildlife numbers have been declining through a lack of effective

management. The ecological, economic and social significance
of wildlife is great and its potential can only be realised through
better conservation efforts.
The loss of wildlife biodiversity is directly related to the loss of

protected areas in the basin. There are two national parks, one
sanctuary, one wildlife/game reserve and four controlled hunting
areas. The RVLB also has a crocodile ranch and a number of
important bird areas (IBAs), though they have not been
designated as one of the categories of wildlife protected areas
by government.
The protected areas in the basin include the Abiyata-Shala

Lakes National Park (ASLNP) and Nech Sar National Park
(NSNP), Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary (SSHBS),
Aluto CHA, Munessa CHA, Boyo Swamp CHA and Segen CHA.
However, with the exception of Nech Sar, none of these

protected areas have animals remaining to protect. Through the
1990s people encroached on these protected areas, farming,
grazing and hunting. Habitats were damaged and animals killed.
Nech Sar has wildlife remaining but animal numbers are low.
Some species have only 1 animal remaining, so that restocking
would be necessary to increase numbers. As with Abiyata-Shala
Lakes National Park, Nech Sar has been encroached upon by
farm communities who have taken over land and damaged
habitats. Africa Parks have a management contract for Nech
Sar, but they left earlier this year as they felt they could no
longer manage the park under the current conditions.
For the national and the two regional governments, it is now a

question of whether the protected areas should be restocked

and then managed properly, or whether they should be
abandoned and put to other uses.
4.14.1 Roads and Transport

The road network in the northern and eastern parts of Basin is
significantly better than in the south with a much greater
density and superior quality. In the south, accessibility to
markets as well as education and health services is therefore
poor.
Some of the major problems in the roads sector are the lack of
machinery and equipment, shortage of skilled personnel and
absence of adequate funds for maintenance. In mountainous
areas, this is compounded by the rugged terrain which requires
higher levels of investment per kilometre. This lack of capacity
hinders a more rapid upgrading of the road network in the
Basin. The weather also hampers construction activities during
the main wet season. Furthermore, the scattered nature of rural
settlements in less densely populated areas of the Basin is a
major constraint to viable investment in road infrastructure.
Some of the main structural and operational problems for road

transport include:
 shortage of transport planning and management

professionals;
 low load factor of transporters (especially freight transport)
and unbalanced seasonal demand for the freight and
transporters;
 lack of competition among the transport operators;
 road safety problems due to poor driving skills;
 inadequate attention to the development of non-motorized
modes of transport;
 absence of public transport systems in small towns and
rural areas;
 unreliable service due to higher percentage of old vehicles;
and
 weak private sector investment in road transport.

4.14.2 Water Supply and Sanitation
Achievement of universal water supply coverage in the urban
areas of the Basin by 2015, and access to secure water facilities
for the rural population by 2035 is planned. In addition, it is
anticipated that there will a very substantial improvement in
sanitation facilities in both urban and rural areas. There are,
however, many constraints to achieving these targets, including:
 Water bureaux and offices at regional and wereda levels are

often unclear as to their roles and responsibilities with
regard to water supply and sanitation. This has been
exacerbated by the rapid devolution to regions and weredas.
 Ministries and regional bodies are not exercising their
regulatory power on water resources and water quality.
Regulations, standards and guidelines for tariff setting,
water administration and water allocation are not yet in
place, particularly at regional level.
 Financial resources at wereda level are normally only
sufficient to cover salaries and some operational costs,
leaving very little for maintenance and capital development.
The funds that the water service provider receives for its
budget is not related to demand. Failure of water supply and
sanitation systems is also common.
 Water quality monitoring has not become routine due to
limited equipment, untrained staff and logistical support.
Water service providers also have little information on water
quality and so are unable provide appropriate treatment for
consumption purposes.
 Functionality of completed facilities is relatively poor, at less
than 70% of capacity.
 High population growth rate places increasing pressure on
providing adequate water supply and sanitation services.
 For existing systems, spare parts are not readily available,
resulting in system failures and long delays during repair.
Regular and preventive maintenance is rare.
 Coordination in the sector has been very poor between
national and local levels and between public, private, civil
society and development partners. Different manuals have
been followed, different approaches used and both gaps and

duplications have resulted. Sustainability and efficiency have
been adversely affected.
 The private sector is not sufficiently involved. There are
valuable roles the private sector could play but defining
these roles and how to attract the private sector needs
serious consideration and planning.
 Institutional instability and high staff turnover are current
characteristics of the civil service in general, which affects
the ability to implement programmes effectively.
4.14.3 Electricity
A major constraint for the wider application of alternative
energy resources in the Basin is that off-grid rural electrification
is not incorporated into the long term rural electrification plan.
Such an integrated plan for both grid-based and off-grid rural
electrification is important for two reasons. The first reason is
that an official plan will provide information for developers
(mainly non-government) on where the opportunities for off-grid
development are located; this will provide an important guide to
future investments in these systems. Secondly, an official plan
will clearly delineate off-grid areas from areas to be covered by
the grid, and will therefore obviate any confusion in
implementation.
Small alternative energy systems, e.g. solar and wind power,

usually have high investment costs but low running costs
compared to conventional systems. High investment costs pose
financing problems for the low income rural communities.
Appropriate financing from the government and other
development agency should therefore be provided to households
and communities in order to accelerate the development of
these renewable energy systems.
The main constraints to expanding the telecommunications
network include:
 current backlog in service, combined with high population

growth will make providing universal service a challenge;

 difficulties in promoting information and communications
technology, especially in the rural areas, due to the high
level of illiteracy among the adult population;
 scattered nature of rural settlements which will make
universal access difficult to implement and expensive on a
per capita basis.
There are few constraints to the expansion of postal services.

There is interest on the part of government and demand by the
public. However, competition from other sectors for government
financing is the main constraint.
4.15 Industrial Base
Substantial numbers of large and medium scale manufacturing

enterprises have remained in public ownership, which has been
a major constraint to rapid and efficient industrial development.
The process of transferring ownership of public enterprises to
the private sector remains an ongoing process, but this situation
has delayed renovation and more efficient operation of old
establishments. In general, public enterprises operate under
remote and bureaucratic management, reducing efficiency and
impeding the speed with which important decisions can be
made. More importantly, income from public enterprises tends
to be taken in by government and not recycled into improving or
expanding the operation of the industry.
Industrial establishments, both private and public, mainly use

old technology in terms of products and processes. Maintaining
old machinery and equipment has substantial drawbacks on
efficiency and competitiveness. Old technology, coupled with the
lack of capacity to produce replacement parts, further inhibits
the development of the industrial sector. This also results in
additional costs associated with time spent obtaining spare
parts and for machinery repairs. Modern factories use Chinese
machinery and equipment for which spare parts have to be
imported. Replacement parts for old or new machinery are
therefore sourced from abroad and this has limited the long run
development of the sector.

Slow agricultural growth has also constrained the development
of agro-industries. In terms of both quantity and quality,
agricultural raw materials such as malt barley, flour wheat and
livestock for meat are inadequate to satisfy industrial demands
of the Basin and many agro-processing enterprises operate well
below capacity. The growth of agro-industries depends on
growth in agricultural productivity.
Strategic industries in the manufacturing sector, such as

engineering, machinery and equipment, industrial chemicals
and electronics are scarcely represented in the country and
essentially nonexistent in the Basin. The absence of progress in
these industries perpetuates industrial underperformance in the
Basin. This type of industrial development also fosters the
development of ancillary industries which have close linkages to
the strategic industries through the supply of inputs and
services.
Most industrial establishments are small scale operations. Lack

of investment capital and limited market opportunities appear to
dictate the size of establishments. The small size structure
therefore places a substantial constraint on the ability to
compete with more well established firms exploiting economies
of scale, particularly foreign competitors. Industrial enterprises
also lack the institutional support to overcome some of their
problems arising from their size, for example through mutual
support and cooperation with other similar enterprises and
government organisations.
As noted in Sections 3.9.1 and 3.9.2, most industrial

establishments operate at a fraction of their capacity because of
the types of constraints discussed here.
In recent years, the government has focused on the

development micro and small scale enterprises (MSE) through
training, credit and other institutional support programmes. In
an environment where obstacles expose weak establishments to
major losses in the face of fierce competition for foreign
imports, this institutional support becomes even more critical. A
modest improvement in the institutional environment and
support would therefore enhance the competitive position of
small industrial enterprises.

Lack of credit and shortage of funds for investment in the
industrial sector is a major constraint. This lack of credit and
funds for investment appears to underlie shortfalls and
deficiencies in areas such as technological knowledge,
managerial expertise and entrepreneurial skills. These
deficiencies have in turn limited the capacity of the enterprises
to identify, plan and implement financially viable and
competitive projects.
Labour is the more abundant resource, and creating

employment is a major social goal. The low level of skills and
technical knowledge, inadequate training provision, poor
incentives and lack of work opportunities remain major
constraints to industrial development in the Basin. There is
therefore an urgent need to focus on human resource
development, particularly with respect to technical and
managerial capacity building, in order to establish a work force
which has the necessary skills to attract private investment into
the industrial sector. Certainly education is a major component
of a strategy to drive industrial growth.
In recent years, agro-industries such as textile/garments,

leather products and food processing have benefited from
government support under the ADLI strategy. However, the
other industrial sub-sectors lack similar policy support and
attention. Absence of government intervention to guide
development in the non-agricultural based industrial subsector,
and leaving such development to face competition from foreign
imports and the global market, remain major constraints to the
establishment of these alternative industries in the RVLB.
4.16 Education Services
The education and literacy levels in the RVLB, as elsewhere in

the country, are very low, even by the standards of other sub-
Saharan countries and other developing countries. Economic
development demands an educated population, especially for
development of a solid industrial base.

There is a general lack of awareness on the importance of
educating children, especially in rural areas. This is an issue of
great importance, as parents need to be made aware of the
value of education, for their children and themselves, and the
impact it will have on future earning power.
Education in the basin suffers from difficulties in maintaining

teachers. There is high turnover among local teaching staff,
mainly due the poor incentives (especially pay) for school
teachers. There is a reported shortage of educational materials,
such as text books, supporting reference material and
equipment.
High population pressure makes it difficult for education

infrastructure to be kept up to the level of demand. There is a
general lack of physical infrastructure for education, especially
for girls and for special needs students. The regional education
authorities are struggling with providing enough schools and
other infrastructure. Current policy is directed at building
schools, but the lesson from other countries faced with similar
difficulties in rural areas is one of balancing school buildings
with transportation for students. As road infrastructure is
improving in the RVLB, transporting students may prove a
better approach than building so many schools.
Developing a full spectrum of educational facilities in the basin

and in the country is a long term process. Providing access to,
initially, elementary schools and then to secondary schools is the
first priority. This can be done through a combination of
investments in building new schools and expanding existing
ones, and providing better roads and transportation for schools.
It also requires investment in well qualified teachers.
This is a large scale investment but it will have the greatest

economic impact and may be the most important of all
investments in the basin. Other interventions and investments
will not fully succeed if education remains difficult to get and if
illiteracy continues.

4.17 Health Services
From discussions with many health care professionals, it is

apparent that the statistics maintained make health service
coverage looks much better than it is. This is apparently a
feature of how the statistics are calculated. However, an attempt
has been made at presenting a clear picture of the health
services situation. Most statistics are for the two regional states,
Oromiya and SNNPRS, but the situation in the RVLB parts of
these two regional states will not differ greatly.

diagnostic facilities. The health care facilities cannot handle the
Hospitals are very few and therefore often far away from needs,
especially as the transport network is also poor generally and
particularly so in the more remote areas.
Table 4.5 shows the number of health facilities in Oromiya and

SNNPRS in 2005/06. Statistics specific to RVLB are not
available, but these provide an indication of the current
situation, as the RVLB parts of Oromiya and SNNPRS will not be
greatly different from the figures quoted here.

Health facilities in Oromiya and SNNPRS
(2005/06)
Type of facility Oromiy SNNPRS
a
Hospital 32 18
Health Centre 192 161
Health Station 699 196
Health Post 1,097 1828
Private Clinic (not for 197 81

profit)
Private Clinic (for 781 242
profit)
Health professional to population ratios are also very poor, even

in comparison to other parts of Ethiopia and to national average
figures, as shown in Table 4.6. Statistics specific to RVLB are not
available, but these provide an indication of the current
situation, as the RVLB parts of Oromiya and SNNPRS will not be
greatly different from the figures quoted here.

Health professional by type in Oromiya and
SNNPRS (2005/06)
Type/Description Oromiya SNNPRS WHO
Numbe Ratio Numb Ratio Standa
r er rd
Physicians 182 1: 110 1:45,8 1:10,00
145,896 52 0
Nurses-all 3343 1: 7,943 3107 1:4,79 1:5000
6
Environmental 336 1: 248 1:60,0 -
Health Workers 79,029 89
Health extension 2035 1: 2199 1:6,77 -
workers 13,048 7
Especially in rural areas, there is a poor attitude of the

community towards family planning, which does not help the
health situation. The resulting rapid and uncontrolled
population growth is a constraint in itself, and health care fails
to keep up with demand.
Basic sanitary facilities in the basin are essentially non-existent

and those that are available are not properly used. Introduction
of sanitation and sanitary facilities into the community is by far
the biggest problem to be solved. Action is needed to create
awareness of and knowledge about the advantages of basic
sanitation, and hygiene in general.

4.18 Institutional Capacity
The recurring theme raised in all sectors during our Phase 1

investigations is one of weak institutions and poor management.
Most of the problems existing now in the RVLB are management
related.
There are problems of capacity in all levels of government,

mainly because of the loss of staff, starting with the most
competent, to the growing private sector. Low salaries and the
inadequate budgets for equipment and other things needed to
do their work have driven staff away. All levels of government
will have a role to play in the implementation of the Master
Plan, but the majority of the work will be carried out by offices
at the regional and wereda levels. Recruiting good staff
especially at wereda level is difficult because there is little
incentive to work there. It is all but impossible to recruit staff
from the bigger cities and those who may be local to the area
have lesser access to the post secondary education that is
required for the sort of work available at wereda offices.
There are many examples of institutional capacity issues.

Agricultural extension, for example, and the related Farmer
Training Centres (FTC) are underfunded, understaffed and, in
many areas, nonexistent. Where there are staff on site, their
areas of expertise are often not those that are most needed
because the job descriptions are centrally directed and not
developed according to need. Where there are staff on site they
don’t have budgets for the transport or equipment that they
need. This is demoralising and leads to a lack of enthusiasm in
carrying out work. To achieve the great increases in productivity
required of agriculture within the objectives of the Master Plan,
and for agriculture to become a viable contributor to the
economy of the basin, strong agricultural extension services are
crucial. Agricultural extension services are so poor that building
them up to a functional level is a long term task – as much as a
decade even with a concerted effort.
Water supply and sanitation service provision is another

example. In water supply services there is limited understanding

of the need to properly assess a source to ensure it meets the
needs of water supply provision before implementing the
project. This has led to a low level of water provision as the
source fails to meet the demands. This is entirely a management
and an institutional issue. Sanitation is not provided at all.
Where there may be limited sewerage, it is disposed of
untreated, and sewerage service is almost non-existent. As
urban populations grow, lack of sanitation is a health time bomb.
Good access to water supply and sanitation is necessary for

development and to attract investment to the area. Management
of water supply and sanitation in the basin will have to improve
significantly and quickly. This necessitates better education and
training and better financing plans for service provision.
Another example is the livestock sector. While there are literally

millions of animals being fed and watered in the basin, economic
output from the sub-sector is extremely low. A collective
management problem with cultural roots apparently exists, and
this needs to be changed. Growing numbers of underfed,
unproductive livestock are one of the main obstacles to
economic development of the RVLB.
There are many such examples not repeated here, but the lesson
is the same. Institutional capacity building is necessary and
urgent. There must be significant increases in government
budgets at all levels, coupled with a change to a more directed
or focused approach to spending.

5 SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
5.1 Background
The sectoral development opportunities described in the

following sections are very brief summaries. Full discussions are
provided in the appropriate Sector Assessment Reports,
produced during Phase 1. These are listed in Section 1.3 of this
document. For ease of discussion, the opportunities described in
this section are for the RVLB as a whole. Our modelling and
analysis breaks down the baseline production figures into the
eight Development Zones (DZs). These are discussed in detail by
DZ in Sections 7 and 11 of this document.
5.2 The Potential for Rainfed Agriculture
Crop production in the RVLB is almost entirely smallholder,

subsistence farming, the main characteristic of which is
extremely low productivity. The low productivity has a number
of causes, including degrading land resources with the
consequent declining soil fertility, exacerbated by the low level
of farmer knowledge on the basics of agronomy, especially with
regard to the benefits of agricultural inputs such as improved
seeds, fertilisers and pesticides. Low fertility and low
productivity lead to a downward spiral of poverty. Farmers also
lack knowledge of the workings of agricultural markets and
therefore even when they may have surpluses to sell, they
obtain poor prices for their products, worsening their poverty.
A further problem is the subdivision of land over the last

decades as population pressures have forced more and more
people to be working the land. Now farms in the RVLB average
1.5 ha, but this value is skewed by a few larger farms. Among
smallholder farms, the average is 0.4 ha, too small to support a
family, and further driving the poverty cycle.
However low the productivity, agriculture is the economic and

social base of the RVLB, with crop production accounting for
38% of RGDP and some 80% of the population reliant on

agriculture for their livelihood. The importance of agriculture
will continue, though with percentage contribution to RGDP
declining as industry and other forms of commercial activity
develop.
There is good potential to improve agricultural productivity,

partly because productivity is currently so low. Most of the
agriculture in the basin is rainfed and so this is where most of
the efforts must be placed. The RVLB has a variety of climates,
with good rainfall in the highlands, diminishing with lower
elevation. Land resources are good but soil fertility is declining
through poor management and land degradation is a major
problem which must be reversed.
There is essentially no more ‘suitable’ (good) land that is not

already cultivated. The only land available for expansion is
classed as ‘marginal’. There are an estimated 1.6 million ha of
marginal land which could be put into production in the RVLB
but it is questionable whether there is value in cultivating it. The
term ‘marginal’ means that productivity will be low, households
would be unlikely to earn a living from it, and its contribution to
RGDP will be limited. Additionally, some of this land is suitable
for forestry and will compete with forest development. In many
cases, developing forestry on marginal land makes more
economic sense, as well as social and environmental sense.
During the period 2001 to 2005, increases in crop production

were about 10% per annum, but this was mainly due to
expansion of area, with only about 1% per annum due to
intensification. This is very poor growth and illustrates the
limited knowledge of farmers in how to increase productivity
and the low capacity of agricultural extension to disseminate
such knowledge to farmers.
Achieving good productivity is first and foremost a matter of

improving farmer knowledge of agronomy and of markets and
how they involve themselves in markets to earn as much as
possible from their land and labour. This is intensification, and
its current growth rate of only 1% needs to be increased.
However, given the constraints of limited farmer capacity and
low extension capacity, the maximum growth rate expected is
only about 3% per annum on average. This would amount to a

doubling of crop productivity at the farm level in about 25 years.
Given that crop yields could increase in many cases by a factor
of four, this is a disappointing rate of growth, though realistic
under the circumstances.
Such a growth rate also presupposes certain conditions. One is

that developing the extension services to being fully functional
in a short time must be a priority for the regional
administrations. Even with extension services prioritised it will
be a considerable task to bring them up to full functionality. To
date, the FTCs in the basin are nowhere near fully staffed, and
none are properly equipped or funded. It is uncertain exactly
how many new recruits are required, but it is known that the
number is large. If FTCs are to be fully staffed within, say, 5
years, it would require training and recruiting many new DAs
per year and it is questionable whether there is sufficient
capacity in the training colleges to keep up with this demand.
A 3% growth rate also presupposes that farmers have the right

conditions under which they would invest in their own land. This
is, of course, the land tenure issue. If farmers don’t own their
land they will be less inclined to invest, and a lower growth rate
will probably result.
The above discussion has been centred on the supply side of the
equation. The demand side also influences production; in fact it
will drive it. The demand side is about markets and ensuring
access to markets. As the population of the RVLB grows, so will
the market, but the market will also change as the basin
urbanises and people have jobs outside of agriculture. To some
extent the change will be self-driving, but government can do a
great deal to ensure it happens by promoting and supporting
industrialisation and through investing in infrastructure, mainly
transport, communications, water supply and sanitation,
education, health services, etc.
It should also be noted here that intensification efforts must put

sustainability at the forefront to ensure that a good level of crop
production can continue indefinitely.

5.3 The Potential for Irrigated Agriculture
5.3.1 Basic Considerations in Irrigation Development

Most of the requirements for increasing agricultural
productivity which are discussed in the preceding section on
rainfed agriculture apply equally to irrigated agriculture and are
not repeated here. However, there are additional considerations
for irrigation which have to do with management capacity, with
availability of finances and with water availability.
Irrigation schemes are major investments both in capital costs

and in recurrent costs. There are many areas of Ethiopia which
have much better irrigation potential than does the RVLB
because of water availability. Irrigation development in the
RVLB must be considered in the national context as to whether
it is the best place to invest. The Water Sector Irrigation
Development Plan does not include any major projects in the
RVLB, though small scale works to be implemented by the
regional water resources bureaux of Oromiya and SNNPRS are
considered.
Currently irrigated agriculture in the RVLB contributes about

1% of overall RGDP; this compares with 37% for rainfed
agriculture. As discussed below, there is only a sustainable
potential of some 18,000 ha of irrigation development in the
RVLB. With the existing irrigation area at less than 30,000 ha,
this suggests that the best irrigation could contribute to RGDP
would be about 2% of total. With the growth of industry, it would
probably be less.
There are many other sectors in which investment is necessary

to drive economic growth: education, health, roads,
communications, water supply and sanitation, and others.
Investments in these areas will contribute much more to
economic development than will irrigation. Consideration needs
to be given to which are the most productive sectors in which to
invest.
Irrigation schemes need to be well managed to ensure they are

efficient in terms of both economics and water use, and are
sustainable. The history of irrigation management and
sustainability in the RVLB is not very good, with many schemes

having failed or been abandoned. There may be many specific
reasons for failure, but they are all management issues. MoWR
and the regional administrations must ensure that there is a
management plan and sufficient management capacity in place
before a scheme is started.
Complimentary infrastructure is also required at the planning

stage. There must be markets which will buy produce and sell
inputs. There must be good roads to access those markets. Most
farmers who will work the land in the irrigation schemes will
have no experience in irrigation and need to be trained in order
to prosper and make the irrigation investment worthwhile. This
requires that strong agricultural extension is in place before the
scheme is complete. Extension may be through the FTC, but it
would be better if it was specific to the irrigation scheme itself.
5.3.2 Future Irrigation Development Potential Based on Land

Suitability
There is some potential for irrigation development, as discussed
in Section 3.6.3. There are about 29,000 ha of S1 (suitable)
irrigable land in the basin (which is defined only by soil type and
land slope). There are also about 29,700 ha of land already
under irrigation in the basin, suggesting that the best land for
irrigation is already used. There are a further 140,000 ha of S2
(moderately suitable) irrigable land.
All of the 140,000 ha, plus an additional 50 ha of S2 land,

currently have irrigation schemes in various states of planning
by the MoWR. Some of these have already progressed to
feasibility and even design stages. Two are being studied at
prefeasibility level in this current study.
5.3.3 Planned Irrigation

MoWR and the Oromiya and SNNP Regional States have
identified 64 potential irrigation schemes of varying sizes within
the RVLB. Table 5.1 lists the schemes and their proposed
command areas. Among those listed in Table 5.1 are four large
scale irrigation schemes planned by MoWR, which are described
in more detail here.
Gelana (Table 5.1, site 6)

The original Gelana Feasibility Study in 1988 identified some
11,000 ha gross for consideration for irrigation development.
The current feasibility study has undertaken soil and
topographic surveys over 6,200 ha gross and has identified a net
irrigation command area of 5,356 ha. This development is on the
Gelana River which flows into Lake Abaya.

Table SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES.15:
Planned irrigation developments in the RVLB
Site Sub-basin Area Site Sub- Area
(ha) basin (ha)
1 Ziway 15,500 34 Katar 500
2 Ziway 5,000 35 Katar 500
3 Shala 3,000 36 Katar 300
4 Abaya 7,715 37 Katar 200
5 Abaya 9,215 38 Shala 1,000
6 Abaya 6,200 39 Shala 1,000
7 Weito 7,500 40 Shala 1,000
8 Abaya 2,000 41 Meki 1,000
9 Gidabo 200 42 Meki 700
10 Gidabo 200 43 Segen 500
11 Hamasa 2,000 44 Segen 500
12 Bilate 3,000 45 Segen 1,000
13 Bilate 200 46 Segen 10,000
14 Hamasa 1,000 47 Segen 500
15 Bilate 1,000 48 Segen 5,000
16 Bilate 1,000 49 Segen 700
17 Bilate 600 50 Segen 5,000
18 Bilate 1,000 51 Segen 300
19 Bilate 200 52 Segen 10,000
20 Chamo 1,000 53 Segen 5,000
21 Chamo 5,000 54 Gelana 1,000
22 Chamo 3,000 55 Abaya 500
23 Weito 500 56 Weito 1,000
24 Shala 1,000 57 Weito 1,000
25 Gelana 300 58 Weito 1,000
26 Gelana 700 59 Weito 1,000
27 Gidabo 400 60 Weito 1,000
28 Gidabo 600 61 Weito 1,000
29 Gidabo 1,000 62 Weito 10,000
30 Katar 500 63 Weito 1,000
31 Katar 500 64 Dijo 200
32 Katar 1,000 65 Meki 5,000
33 Katar 700 66 Segen 2,000
Total for 66 sites 153,173

Gidabo (Table 5.1, site 5)
The gross command area currently being considered for Gidabo

is 15,683 ha with an expected net area of 9,215 ha. No dam and
storage is planned, and irrigation would be fed as a run-of-river
scheme. Gidabo also flows into Lake Abaya, whose inflows would
therefore be reduced as a consequence of the Gidabo irrigation
proposal, if it were to proceed.
Bilate (Table 5.1, site 4)
Historically this area was developed as a series of state farms

starting in the 1960s. Original plans included a dam at Boyo to
overcome water scarcity in the lower Bilate River, but it was
abandoned in 1986 because of significant local resistance to it.
The most recent study now considers a dam at Dendo on the
Bilate River, focused on the existing state farms in the lower
Bilate. This project looks mainly at rehabilitation and extension
of a total of 7,715 ha. The Bilate River also flows into Lake
Abaya.
Ziway Pressurised Irrigation (Table 5.1, site 1)
The Ziway Pressurised Irrigation Project is to develop up to

15,500 ha of irrigation using drip and sprinkler techniques
based on pumping directly from Lake Ziway. It is to be
developed in stages, with the first at 3,000 ha following with
another 1,500 ha and on from there.
5.3.4 Future Irrigation Development Potential Based on Water

Resources
Because of the known sensitivity of the lakes to changes in the
hydrological regime, it was clear that a further 153,000 ha of
irrigation is most unlikely to be sustainable. Therefore, an
analysis of the impact on the lakes from the planned irrigation
was carried out to estimate how much future irrigation
development may be sustainable. This was done using the WEAP
based water resources model built for this Master Plan study.
Because the lakes are in approximate balance are at this time,

the theoretical level of new irrigation would probably be zero, as

measured by a decline in lake levels and a consequent loss of
area. But it was considered that there may be a ‘safe’ level of
lake level and area loss. This was defined as a percentage of the
average depth of each lake.
A full discussion on the possible future irrigation is given in

Annex A, Water Resources and Modelling, and summarised
below.
For the northern lakes of Ziway, Langano, Abiyata and Shala,

there are a total of 49,250 ha of planned irrigation. It is
estimated that only 6,750 ha would be sustainable, with some,
but relatively small losses in lake volume and area on each of
the lakes.
For Lake Awasa, the sustainable limit is estimated at about 500

ha.
For the central lake system of Abaya and Chamo, there is a

planned total of 44,800 ha in Abaya and a further 4,000 ha in
Chamo. Because the lakes are connected, most of the impact is
on Lake Chamo. The sustainable irrigation potential from a
water resources perspective is a total of 5,500 ha, with either all
of that in Abaya basin, or 1,500 ha in Abaya and 4,000 ha in
Chamo basin.
For the southern sub-basins of Segen and Weito, which join and
flow into the wetlands adjacent to Chew Bahir, the total planned
irrigation is 47,000 ha. This sub-basin must be analysed
differently, as Chew Bahir is not a lake, but a salt pan that
occasionally has a small amount of water in it. Of greater
importance is the significant wetland upstream of Chew Bahir.
Assuming a 5% loss in water flow into the wetland is acceptable,
5,600 ha is the limit of new irrigation development in this sub-
basin. If 10% is assumed, 15,600 ha may be possible.
This analysis shows that of the 153,000 ha of irrigation currently

planned, only about 18,350 ha of new irrigation development is
sustainably feasible from a water resources perspective.

5.4 Livestock and Rangelands
5.4.1 Livestock Population and Production

The two main features of livestock in the RVLB are
overpopulation and underproduction. They are not unrelated.
One of the key problems is the supply of feed. As there are so
many animals, it is hard to keep up with provision of feed, and
the rate of growth of animal numbers exceeds the ability to keep
up with feed requirements. Contributing to the problem is the
rapidly growing population of people, which imposes increasing
land pressure, making it even more difficult to grow or find
animal feed. Animals are also under-productive, which is due to
feed as well as to disease; the latter problem is also exacerbated
by the numbers of animals and associated crowding.
Livestock currently contributes about ETB 1,400 million to the

economy of the basin, just over 17% of total RGDP. The potential
production value of livestock over the period of the Master Plan
is not possible to assess in a simple statement, as for other
sectors. This is because it has become apparent from the Master
Plan analysis that at current numbers and rates of growth, the
cost of simply supplying feed will outstrip any economic gains
from other interventions, whether at household or basin level.
The future of livestock will be of necessity one of reducing
numbers and increasing productivity. This is discussed further in
Sections 7 and 11 of this report.
5.4.2 Rangeland Development

Rangeland development will be a necessary step in reducing the
impact of livestock on the environment currently caused by
excessive free ranging of animals. There is conflict between
pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and sedentary farmers which can
be mitigated through rangeland development. It is likely that
real pastoralism will decline because of land pressure and
related conflict, and this change should be managed properly. As
moves towards land ownership (such as land holding
certification) come into effect, pastoralists will be less free to
roam in search of feed and water. Developing communal
rangeland and restricting grazing to these areas would be a
good response to this issue.

Rangeland development is appropriate at elevations less than
1500 masl, and on land not otherwise suitable for rainfed
agriculture. In the basin there are almost 2 million ha of land
suitable for rangeland development.
Rangeland development also competes with marginal land for

agriculture and for forest and woodland, where sufficient
rainfall is available.
5.5 Other Natural Resources
5.5.1 Fisheries and Crocodiles

There is good potential for a productive fisheries industry in the
RVLB, mostly based on the lakes. Fisheries currently contribute
about 0.5% to basin RGDP. It will not become a major
contributor to total RGDP, but it is, or can be, an important local
source of income as well as a good food source in the basin.
The fishery in the RVLB is currently in a state of rapid decline.

Earlier studies estimate production between 15,000 and 19,000
tonnes per year, but 2005 production is estimated at only 8,500
tonnes. The decline is mainly due to overfishing but it is also an
environmental issue. Lake level decline in Lake Chamo, for
example, has blocked spawning routes into the rivers, reducing
reproduction rates and affecting fish stocks from the supply side
as well as the catch side.
The decline will continue until regional governments regulate

the industry and enforce regulations properly. There is urgency
to this; if regulation and enforcement do not come into force
very soon, the fisheries will reach a point of collapse and no
return.
With a goal of establishing and maintaining a functional,

profitable and sustainable fishery in the RVLB, the first step is
conservation, with strict enforcement, followed by slow
increases in production to a sustainable level, with continuing
regulation and strict enforcement.
It is considered that the fishery could produce on the order of

17,000 tonnes per year and, with directed attention to

improving markets and to other interventions such as
developing aquaculture, may achieve 20,000 tonnes per year.
Improving infrastructure so that catches can be delivered to
market with less wastage is also very important.
Aquaculture development presents an opportunity to increase

fish production, contribute to the RGDP and provide local
employment. This would be especially beneficial during the
recovery period of the wild fishery, if it can be developed quickly
enough. The current and growing demand for fish and the rapid
price increases make the potential for new ventures very
attractive. At this stage there is no active aquaculture in the
basin and its development is uncertain. No estimates have been
made for production possibilities.
The only crocodile farming operation in the RVLB is at Arba

Minch, and is a State Enterprise. Its net contribution to RGDP is
just over ETB 500,000, which makes its contribution to RGDP of
0.006%, or less than 1/100th of 1%. However, it employs about
twelve people and makes its small contribution to the local
economy. There is some potential to expand operations,
depending on world markets for crocodile skin and meat.
Expanding operations would require returning profits to the
operation to pay for it but, as a State Enterprise, profits go to
government and are not returned as investment in the future.
Improvements in management and productivity could be made.

But crocodile products are a small, niche market and crocodile
farming will not become more than a small employer with local
implications. Given its very low productivity, crocodile
production has been included in fisheries totals.
5.5.2 Forestry and Agro-Forestry

In addition to satisfying demands for fuel wood and wood
products, forests have the additional role of protecting
catchments, specifically reducing soil erosion and land
degradation, increasing agricultural productivity and
maintaining biodiversity. In their role as resources they also
provide additional off-farm work for farmers and their families,
increasing incomes and improving livelihoods.

There are very few natural forests and woodlands remaining in
the RVLB. There is potential for redeveloping them, but with
increasing land pressure there can be a conflict in areas
considered suitable for agricultural land development. The high
altitude mountainous areas of the basin (above 1,500 masl) in
the eastern, southeastern and western peripheral highlands are
well suited to natural and plantation forestry development.
There is adequate rainfall and the soils are well developed in
those areas. About 10% of the total RVLB area has slopes of
30% to 60%, which is marginal for agriculture and requires
bench terracing if it is developed, and about 2% has slopes
greater than 60%, which is unsuitable for agriculture. Given that
forests compete for land with agriculture, targeting land which
is marginal for agriculture is sensible.
There are some plantations which could be a good resource if

properly managed. There is also good potential to develop
plantations much further to supply the forest product needs of
the basin. Industrial and peri-urban plantations are more suited
to land with a slope of less than 30%, which is more than 88% of
the total land area of the RVLB. However, this is land also suited
to agricultural development. Indeed, most of it is already
developed and conflict will inevitably arise.
Perhaps the best potential is for increasing agroforestry. Except

in the extreme central and southern lowland pastoral areas, the
mixed perennial and cereal faming systems are suitable for tree
integration and farm forestry development. Agroforestry is good
watershed management practice and provides fuel and other
wood products for households.
Forestry as an industry requires labour and there is a good base

of rural labour in the RVLB which is growing at a rate probably
faster than that of employment. There are already large, well
understood markets for forest products and there are increasing
numbers of wood-based small scale industries in the urban
centres, ensuring good markets into the future.
The recent move by government to allow private forest

ownership is an opportunity to commercialise the sector. The
current farmer based approach for the production of seedlings
(about 300 individual nurseries) with minimum financial support

from the state is a good initiative to capitalise upon. This will
hasten farm forestry and community forestry development in the
basin.
There is good potential to promote the marketing and

production of non-timber forest products, especially aromatic
species in the lowland woodlands. The presence of substantial
stocks of aromatic species is an opportunity to introduce the
resource to the central market, which will eventually contribute
to conservation of the woodland resources and improvement of
the local livelihoods in the area.
In all interventions, putting emphasis on engaging the private

sector in the forestry business through incentives such as
exemptions from duty for importing equipment and sale of
products, provision of land, longer gestation periods and other
possibilities, would greatly benefit the development of the
forestry sector.
Because of the way forest products are obtained and traded, it is

more difficult to estimate a baseline. There is a more direct
relationship between demand and supply for wood products,
especially for fuel wood and especially in the rural environment,
than for other products; if fuel wood is needed, the demand it
will be met by growing it and gathering it in the basin.
It has been shown that even when other fuels become available,
people still choose wood for heating and cooking – the main uses
of fuel wood. There are few alternatives for heating, as any
other form requires an appliance of some kind which the user
needs to purchase. Similarly for cooking, people are used to
cooking on wood and already own a wood burning stove. Even
with the Universal Electricity Access Plan, per capita fuel wood
for heating and cooking will remain about the same.
Currently, fuelwood per capita demand is 1.37 tonnes per

annum, averaged between urban and rural areas, and
construction wood per capita demand is 0.55 tonnes per annum,
averaged between urban and rural areas.
Fuelwood demand will grow over the MP period, approximately

related to population growth. Construction wood demands will

also grow in relation to population growth, but at a somewhat
greater rate as urban construction demands will grow more
rapidly.
5.5.3 Apiculture
Much of the area of the RVLB, with the exception of some of the
pastoral and agro-pastoral areas, has potential for apiculture
development. The honeybee flora, climate, and other agro-
ecological factors are highly favourable for the maintaining
large numbers of honeybee colonies and for honey and beeswax
production. Apiculture can significantly enhance incomes and
livelihoods of agricultural communities. Women particularly can
benefit from apiculture as their participation does not cause
social friction. To date apiculture is not widespread so there is
great potential for expansion.
Apiculture is already practised in the basin and some indigenous

knowledge of bee management is available for dissemination.
There is a large labour force within farming communities to
support beekeeping activities. There is a high demand for honey
and beeswax and the RVLB is already well known as an area
producing good honey. There has already been some support to
apiculture provided by NGOs and international development
agencies, and interest shown has been by the private sector.
There is potential to integrate apiculture with fruit and
vegetable farming and agroforestry practices, thus linking
apiculture with improved land management practices and
improved livelihoods from other sources and activities.
Current (2005) production in the basin is estimated at 3,000

tonnes of honey and 990 tonnes of beeswax. This is derived from
556,500 hives in the basin. Of these 96% are traditional hives
which produce 5 kg pf honey per annum, 4% are improved
hives, at 7.5 kg per annum and less than 1% are modern hives
which can produce 27 kg per annum.
There is plenty of suitable land for apiculture in the RVLB,

including cultivated, forest and woodland, amounting to 3.7
million ha. Maximum hive density is considered to be 1 hive per
2.9 ha, which would amount to about 700,000 more hives could
be developed in the basin. It is unlikely that all farmers would
purchase modern hives because they are six times more

expensive than traditional hives. Based on these estimates
production by the end of the MP period could be as much as
16,700 tonnes of honey and 5,700 tonnes of beeswax.
5.5.4 Minerals and Mining

Minerals and mining currently contributes about ETB 6 million
(0.08%) to the RGDP of the basin. The mineral resources of the
basin are limited and mostly non-metallic. The main minerals
are soda ash, diatomite and bentonite, all in sufficient quantities
and quality for exploitation.
The three lakes in the area, Shala, Abiyata and Chitu, contain
over 460 million tonnes of sodium carbonate in solution. Soda
ash is currently being mined at a government owned mine on
Lake Abiyata using solar evaporation of brines from the lake
which has produced as much as 20,000 tonnes per year which
has been sufficient to satisfy local needs. The plant has not
produced for the last three years because of the significant
decline in Lake Abiyata water level (which is not related to soda
ash production).
Government recently responded to this problem by giving the

plant to a private mining company, and plans have been
considered to upgrade the plant and get it working again. An
assessment was done for expansion to 1 million tonnes of
product per year using brines brought in from Lake Shala. This
would require a pipeline and pumping to bring water from
Shala. Such an increase is unrealistic and unsustainable as it
would draw down Lake Abiyata to a dry bed within a few years,
and even Lake Shala lake levels would drop by 2.4 metres per
year, not appropriate within a National Park.
Caustic soda, derived from soda ash production, is one of the

ingredients used for treating fluoride contaminated water.
Fluoride contamination of groundwater is common in the RVLB,
especially in the lowlands where most major towns and cities
are. Fluoride treatment is expensive partly because of the high
cost of importing the chemicals. There may be potential to
produce caustic soda in the RVLB and use it to treat fluoride
contaminated groundwater, at once solving a problem and
creating a local market for soda ash products.

Diatomite is used in the production of filters and in the
purification of liquid food products. Lower grade diatomite is
used as filler in the manufacture of insecticides. Other minor
uses include thermal insulating material, production of
lightweight bricks for construction and other uses. There are
deposits near Gademotta, Adami Tulu, Chefe Jila and Abiyata
with over 40 million tonnes of proven high quality reserves. The
country currently imports these industrial minerals.
Bentonite is used to make drilling mud and other industrial

uses. Estimated reserves from three localities on Gedicho Island
in Lake Abaya total 7 million tonnes.
There are other possible mineral prospects in the basin,

including epithermal gold, gold associated with the Precambrian
terrane, gemstones, kaolin, fluorite and others. Reserves are
unknown and they require exploration and reserve assessment
to determine their potential for exploitation.
In conclusion, while there is some potential for mineral

extraction in the RVLB, it is not great, so that minerals and
mining will only represent a small contribution to overall RGDP.
5.6 Water Resources Development
5.6.1 Water as a Constraint

Usually when considering water resources development,
thought turns to large projects such as dams, irrigation,
hydropower, etc. However, in the RVLB, this will not be the case.
It is already known that water is the main constraint to the
development of the RVLB, as is stated in the ToR for this study.
A discussion of the water resources constraints in the RVLB is
given in Section 5.2.
5.6.2 Water for Irrigation

With regard to irrigation, there is some scope for irrigation
development in some areas of the basin. As discussed in Section
5.3.4, there are about 18,350 ha which may be developed in the
RVLB with relatively small impacts on the lake environments
and which may be considered sustainable.

The development cost of irrigation schemes is high and may not
be the best target for investment, in terms of maximising
benefits overall. Those assessed at prefeasibility level during
this study show a low economic return. There may be argument
for building them anyway, for primarily social reasons, but this
is also doubtful given the rate of failure of earlier schemes built
in the RVLB and elsewhere in Ethiopia. Large schemes are
major investments and, as there are other river basins of
Ethiopia which have much greater irrigation potential, it is far
more efficient from a national perspective to make such
investments elsewhere.
The impact on economic growth from investment in other

sectors, such as education, health, transport, communications,
water supply and sanitation, etc. will be much greater than from
irrigation development. Investment in these other sectors may
be a more efficient use of limited funds.
5.6.3 Water for Hydropower

The opportunities for hydropower development are also limited.
The RVLB is not considered an area of high potential for
hydropower development because it lacks the physical
attributes necessary for production. While there may be some
small hydropower schemes which could be developed, the cost
per kWh will be greater than for the larger, more productive
dams which are planned or already being developed in other
river basins. There are locations where small or micro hydro
could be developed to serve local populations, but the cost per
kwh will also be greater than to supply them through the
national grid under the Universal Electricity Access Plan. As a
similar argument to irrigation, put into a national context,
money is better spent in other river basins.
5.6.4 Conservation and Watershed Management

The most important interventions in water resources
development in the RVLB are conservation and watershed
protection and management. As a hydrologically closed basin,
the lakes of the RVLB are extremely vulnerable ecologically. The
impact of uncontrolled water use is already well illustrated (see
Figures 3.5 and 3.6 above) by the decline in Lake Abiyata and

the loss of its fish habitat and that of most aquatic birds.
Without good management and with unplanned abstractions, the
remaining lakes will see a similar fate.
The first concern is water management. Up to now there has

been no water management of any sort in the RVLB and the
impact of that is apparent. However, the River Basin
Organisation for the RVLB will begin its establishment this year
(2008) and, if properly trained, staffed and funded, will make an
important difference in managing this vulnerable river basin.
Watershed management including rehabilitation is also needed.

This is both a land management and a water management issue.
A generalised cost for soil and water conservation works is
about $350 per ha. A significant proportion of the basin is in
areas of high erosion potential and there are many areas which
are already badly degraded. Reversing the land degradation
trend and rehabilitating those areas already degraded must be a
priority in the RVLB where good land for agriculture is scarce
and increasing agricultural productivity is the key to economic
growth.
5.6.5 Urban and Rural Domestic Water Supply

The major towns of the RVLB have urban water supply systems
with varying levels of service. Service is either through
standpipes or household connections depending on the town and
the area within it. The current rate of access to safe water is
based on the average level service coverage of 54% of the
population, which is low for urban areas. Definition of safe
water is also debatable as it is well known that much of the
urban water is not potable but must be treated before drinking.
Most systems operate intermittently. With urban populations
growing rapidly, this sector requires urgent attention.
Access to safe water in rural areas averages at 44% according

to official statistics. Our studies showed great differences in the
officially quoted rate of coverage between kebele and wereda
level offices. As with urban supplies, it is known that much of
the water supplied through these rural systems is not potable.
There is a clear and direct correlation between access to safe

water and health in the RVLB. Our analysis of public health

issues in the basin shows that the most frequent diseases are
water-borne and water-related, and these are on the increase.
After malaria, the most common are amoebas, giardia, typhoid
fever and dysentery, all due to water contaminated by human
waste. In both rural and urban areas, incidence of diseases
linked directly with poor water quality is high. Good access to a
safe domestic water supply is a key to economic development of
the basin.
Water supply is an area of high priority for national and regional

governments alike. An analysis has been carried out to estimate
the levels of investment required to ensure access to safe water.
A good initial target is to follow the Millennium Development
Goal (MDG) target (Target 10) by 2015, which has the definition
of “reducing by half the proportion of the population without
access to safe water”. The total estimated capital investment
need for urban and rural water supply combined to meet the
MDG target by 2015 is ETB 918 million.
Moving forward from the MDGs from 2015 to 2035, the estimate
of investment needs is based on universal access to safe water
in both urban and rural areas. The total estimated capital
investment for urban and rural water supply for the period 2015
to 2035 is ETB 3.1 billion. Total investment in providing
universal access to safe water between now and 2035, is
therefore just over ETB 4 billion.
Currently, domestic water demands are about 63 million cubic

metres (Mm3) per year. This will grow to about 250 Mm 3 by
2035.
Because of the direct link between access to safe water and

health, investment in water supply is of the utmost importance
and should be one of the main priorities for government
investment during the Master Plan period. Water supply has
been given a lot of attention recently and is prioritised by
government. This will need to continue through the Master Plan
period.
There are many donors actively supporting government in

implementing the Water Supply Development Programme
(WSDP), including UNDP, UNICEF, Agence Française de

Dévelopement (AFD), Finnish Development Agency (FINIDA),
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), GTZ, KfW, CIDA,
Development Cooperation Ireland, DfID, Government of the
Netherlands, the European Union, The World Bank and The
African Development Bank.
One of the main constraints to water supply development has

been capacity at regional and wereda level. This is beginning to
improve due to the recent push to increase training centres and
places for water sector professionals and technicians. Eight new
colleges have been established to ensure there are enough
trained professionals to implement water supply projects.
Secondment of trainees to Wereda Support Groups (WSGs) and
other operational bodies could also accelerate capacity building.
There remain many difficulties for achieving the water supply

targets. While there are good policies in place, they are not well
understood and service providers are unclear as to their roles
and responsibilities. Water quality in the basin is deteriorating
as ministries and regional bodies fail to manage and regulate
water resources and water quality. Water quality monitoring is
essentially nonexistent, so service providers have no information
to work with for treatment and planning. The implementation of
the River Basin Organisation (RBO) in the RVLB will help in this
regard, if it is properly staffed and funded. There are currently
no regulations, standards and guidelines for such important
aspects as tariffs. This in part explains problems in compliance
since the policies are not formalised or legalised at an
operational level.
The financial resources at wereda level are insufficient to cover

recurrent costs for operations, maintenance, etc. There is no
link between collecting water tariffs and finances for recurrent
costs. Service providers are given a budget to work with that is
also not related to actual costs of operation. Failure of water
supply systems is common.
5.6.6 Urban and Rural Sanitation

The working definition applied to basic sanitation by the MDG
Task Force is “the lowest cost option for securing sustainable
access to safe, hygienic and convenient facilities and services
for excreta and sludge disposal that provide privacy and dignity

while at the same time ensuring a clean and healthful living
environment both at home and in the neighbourhood of users.”
When contextualised for urban and rural settings, urban
sanitation comprises storage, collection, transportation,
treatment and disposal of liquid and solid waste so as to avoid
environmental degradation and aesthetic nuisance. At the same
time rural sanitation is defined to mean preservation of health of
individuals and communities by carrying human excreta, animal
and household wastes back to nature while providing comfort
and convenience to users.
There has been considerable awareness of community water

supply needs, but the problems of excreta and wastewater
disposal have received less attention. In order to focus attention
on these problems, "sanitation" became used and understood by
people worldwide to refer only to excreta and wastewater
disposal.
In Ethiopia, outside Addis Ababa there is essentially no urban

sanitation. Sanitation is meant to be the joint responsibility of
the municipality and the wereda health office, even though
neither has sufficient means to execute their roles adequately.
There are an insufficient number of trucks for waste collection
and no sewerage systems. Officially, each household is
responsible for its own waste, but there is no means of disposing
of it.
In urban areas only about 70% have some kind of sanitation

facility, which are mostly pit latrines with some septic tanks. The
remaining 30% use open defecation. The poor, unplanned,
densely populated areas are badly underserved, posing a
greater risk than the less poor areas. Limited sanitation options
and high demand are compounded by poverty and limited space,
creating a major challenge. Mobile urinals and communal
latrines meet only a fraction of the unmet excreta disposal needs
of the urban poor who resort to high-risk disposal practices.
Most towns have some sort of disposal system for pit latrines
and other sanitary facilities, using trucks to pick up waste for
dumping at some other location. However, none of the waste
collected is treated before disposal and the disposal sites are
unregulated.

In rural areas the situation is even worse than in towns, with
over 90% use open defecation.
In short, in the RVLB there is extremely limited access to

sanitation facilities, even in the urban environment, but much
worse in rural areas. There is no treatment of human waste and
disposal is haphazard, unregulated and very high risk.
As with access to safe water, there is a clear and direct

correlation between sanitation and health in the RVLB. Our
analysis of public health issues in the basin shows that the most
frequent diseases are water-borne and water-related, and these
are on the increase. After malaria, the most common are
amoebas, giardia, typhoid fever and dysentery, all due to water
contaminated by human waste.
There is a very low awareness in Ethiopia of the link between

sanitation and health. Even where people do have a latrine, it is
usually for convenience rather than hygiene. As a result, a very
low priority is given to sanitation by communities and by town
administrations. It is considered that there are other needs
more pressing – this related to the lack of understanding of the
link between sanitation and health.
Despite the ongoing discussion at a higher level of integrating

water and sanitation, very little is done at the community level.
Most water projects are given the name “water and sanitation”
but fail to address sanitation.
Urban populations in the RVLB are growing very quickly, and

the lack of sanitation is a health disaster ready and waiting to
happen. Providing sanitation along with improving water supply
access must be among the highest priorities for development of
the RVLB.
According to our assessments during Phase 1, only about 10% of

the rural population has access to “improved sanitation” as per
the definition of the MDG Task Force. This means that 90% do
not have access to sanitary facilities. In the urban areas, the
statistics show that about 70% have some access to sanitation,
but most of these are pit latrines. There are a few flush toilets

(about 1%) but it is unclear where these toilets flush to, given
there are no sewerage systems. As discussed previously,
continuing with pit latrines in urban areas, which have
increasing population and density, is not feasible from a health
perspective. Also, if it is intended to attract business to the
RVLB, better sanitation than pit latrines is necessary.
Based on the assumption of 10% access in the rural areas and

70% access in urban areas, we can determine the investment
required for achieving the MDGs. The urban 70% figure is based
mainly on access to pit latrines, not sewerage. This definition
may be sufficient for achieving the MDGs but is not truly
adequate for high density urban areas. However, given the
proximity of 2015 (the target date for the MDGs), achieving a
level of sewerage service is unlikely. Therefore costs to 2015
have been calculated on the assumption of ensuring at least pit
latrine service is expanded. The capital cost of meeting the MDG
target is estimated at ETB 730 million.
Moving forward from the MDGs from 2015 to 2035, the

estimation of investment needs is based on universal access to
improved sanitation. It includes the assumption of starting to
bring in sewerage and waste water treatment for all urban areas
but, given the time constraints, the assumption is for 50%
sewerage coverage and 50% pit latrines in urban areas by 2035.
The estimate of capital cost is ETB 2.9 billion. Total investment
in providing universal access, between now and 2035, is about
ETB 3.65 billion.
Because of the direct link with health, investment in sanitation

is of the utmost importance and should be one of the main
priorities for government investment during the Master Plan
period.
Donor programmes are similar to those discussed under water

supply (Section 5.6.5 above) as the two are generally linked.
5.6.7 Water for Livestock

Livestock also places a significant demand on water resources,
as shown in Table 5.2.

Water requirement for livestock in the RVLB
Livestock No. of Daily Annual
type animal water water
s deman deman
d d
(l/day) (Mm3/y
r)
Cattle 4,996,0 25 45.6
13
Sheep 1,566,4 5 2.9
32
Goats 1,469,4 5 2.7
51
Horses 257,534 12 1.1
Donkeys 368,715 12 1.6
Mules 33,772 12 0.2
Camels 1,233 30 0.01
Total 8,693,1 54.0
50
It is hoped that livestock numbers will actually reduce in the

RVLB over the Master Plan period as they are already far too
high and, as a consequence, actually retarding economic
development. At the very least the livestock numbers should not
increase, in which case the water requirements as shown in
Table 5.2 will remain the same.
5.6.8 Water for Industry

Industry is made up of several components, especially in
estimating water demand. Industrial water demands are linked
to both urban and rural areas, because there will be significant
small scale industry developing in rural areas based around
agricultural production.
Typical net water consumption rates for industries in Africa are

given in Table 5.3. These are presented by unit of goods
produced. Total water demand for the RVLB will depend on the
growth of the specific industry and is discussed in Section 7.4.

Typical industrial water requirements in
Africa
Agricultural Water per Unit of
industries requirem production
ent
m3
Meat Processing 43 1 tonne of meat
Poultry Processing 0.02 1 bird
m3 milk, with
Dairy, Milk 4.5 1 packaging
Dairy, Other 2.6 1 tonne product
Leather 0.6 1 hide
Leather 55 1 tonne
Flour 5 1 tonne
Fruit Canning 7 1 tonne
Fruit Juicing 2 1 tonne
Vegetable Processing 18 1 tonne
Vegetable Canning 15 1 tonne
Vegetable Oils 6 1 tonne
Sugar 0.8 1 tonne
Soft Drinks 2.6 1 m3 beverage
Beer 7 1 m3 beer
Fish Processing 17 1 tonne fish
Textiles (Cotton) 600 1 tonne
Non-Agricultural
Industries
Light Industrial 0.4 1 worker per day
Mining 0.4 1 tonne
Light Manufacturing 10 1 tonne
Source: HR Wallingford, Guidelines for the Assessment of Catchment Water
Demand and Use
Within urban water supply systems, water is used non-

domestically in commercial services, public services and
industrial establishments. Commercial services such as hotels,
restaurants, private healthcare providers, private schools and
colleges are major consumers of non-domestic water. Public

services such as health care institutions, public schools,
universities and colleges, public administration and defence
establishments also consume substantial amount water.
Industrial establishments consume water as a necessary
component in the production process or for auxiliary purposes.
Non-domestic water consumption is shared among these sectors
in differing proportions.
While a somewhat separate issue, perhaps the most important

industrial water requirement is for tourism, because tourism
requires that the lakes are healthy. Tourism potential may not be
as great as some may wish but it is, and will be, an important
and growing contributor to RGDP. At present it contributes
about 3.6% to RGDP but this will grow over the period of the
Master Plan as long as there are attractions to draw tourists.
The main attractions will always be the lakes themselves. If the
lakes are kept in good ecological condition so that they are
clean, have a natural level of water in them and can support
aquatic and bird life as well as the hippos and crocodiles that
currently inhabit them, there will be a draw for tourists. If they
are allowed to decline in water quality and in water level they
will be unable to support life and the tourist industry will not be
sustainable. Sustainability is one of the two main goals of the
Master Plan, and sustainability of the lakes in particular is a
prime consideration.
5.7 Energy Resources
Energy resources are made up of biomass fuels, which consist of

mainly fuel wood, and electricity. It is interesting to compare the
contribution to RGDP of these: fuel wood is 9.9% and electricity
is only 0.5%. This proportion will change to some extent over
the MP period, but fuel wood will continue to dominate the
energy sector as people are familiar with it and it is preferred to
electricity for cooking and heating, the main uses of energy.
The Ethiopian government has instituted various national

policies and strategies to support developing energy
infrastructure. Nationally, investments in the sector account for
half the total public capital investment. Government is investing
both in the production side, mainly on hydropower, and also on

the distribution side. Installed hydropower capacity is expected
to triple in the next three years. The Universal Electricity Access
Programme (UEAP) will increase access from the present 17%
to 50% by 2010 and to a planned 100% within the following
decade. The government is also implementing an off-grid rural
electrification programme to supplement its grid based UEAP,
mainly in consideration of households and communities too far
from the grid to be served economically.
For the ‘traditional’ energy sector (biomass, or fuel wood) the

federal and regional governments are implementing the Energy
Access Programme (EAP) with the objective of creating a
balance between biomass energy supply and demand. This
programme is promoting energy efficient cooking for rural
households and supply enhancement through homestead and
farm tree planting. The government is also promoting
sustainable fuelwood production and use under the Food
Security Programme. Non-government organisations are
supporting regional efforts in the distribution of improved
domestic stoves in both rural and urban areas.
There is potential for developing geothermal power generation

in the RVLB, as well as exploiting geothermal resources for
direct uses such as heating and refrigeration. Although the
exploration programme has ‘proved’ very little of the resources,
there are promising indications of the geothermal potential.
Little is being exploited now but this is considered to be a

management and financing problem and not a geothermal
resource problem. Estimates of the power production potential
in the RVLB are on the order of 60 MW and this could be
developed within twenty years’ time, if appropriate funding and
other support for exploration, testing and development are
provided.
The RVLB has considerable solar, wind and micro hydropower

resources. The basin also has large areas that are suitable for
the production of biofuel crops such as jatropha and castor
bean. The current level of development of these resources is
rather limited, with only about fifty wind powered water pumps
and a very few solar and micro hydropower systems in operation
in the whole basin. There has yet to be any cropping of biofuels.

All of these alternative energy sources are considered applicable
to local uses but could prove to be valuable at the household
level and also for public buildings such as schools and health
centres. There are many examples of successful introduction of
these technologies in other countries, which could be adapted to
the RVLB.
5.8 Industry and Tourism
Industrial development in the RVLB is very limited, with

manufacturing currently accounting for only 4.7% of RGDP, of
which 2% is large and medium scale and the remaining 2.7% in
small and cottage industries, including coffee processing. It is
significant that there is more industry in the rural areas than in
urban areas at present, as it is expected that this will continue
into the future as smaller industries develop in rural
communities in response to increased agricultural productivity
and the economic activity that is generated around it.
Most industries are based on natural resources, mainly

agriculture and forestry with some related to minerals and
fisheries. The sector is characterised by the use of old and
uncompetitive technology. Technological knowledge, managerial
skills and entrepreneurial attitudes are in short supply.
Individual businesses are largely small scale operators that are
unable to exploit economies of scale and much of what is needed
for industry in the RVLB must be imported from outside the
basin and outside the country. The situation has had the effect of
the industries being uncompetitive in either domestic or export
markets. The low level of technology and the unsupportive
policy environment have also limited investment and slowed
industrial and commercial development.
There is good potential to increase industry in the RVLB, partly

because of its current low level. Initially this will be mainly
based on processing agricultural products but there will be a
knock-on effect of driving the need for provision of machinery,
maintenance and other services, etc. The greatest and most
important driver of industry is an educated work force. This is
discussed further in Section As described in Section 5.10 below.

Investment in other infrastructure, notably water supply,
sanitation, health, transport and communications, is also
necessary to attract industry to the basin as well as support it to
ensure that industries are as efficient as possible. Water supply
and sanitation are discussed in Section 5.5.5 and Section 5.5.6
above. Transport and communications are discussed in Section
5.9 below.
Tourism (which includes hotels, restaurants other aspects of

basic trade) is currently worth ETB 282 million in the RVLB,
representing only 3.6% of total RGDP. Tourism has the potential
to grow, though it is highly dependent on the health to the Rift
Valley lakes, as they will always be the main attractions. This
will require good management and regulation of the lakes and
the watersheds that support them. Environmental sustainability
of the RVLB is crucial to any growth in tourism.

In the past 10 years, there has been a significant improvement
in the road network in Ethiopia. Two Road Sector Development
Programmes, RSDP I and RSDP II, have been launched and a
third is planned. Training institutions are also improving and a
substantial number of skilled engineers and other technical
people have been trained. In the RVLB, a number of roads were
constructed during RSDP I and RSDP II, which also contributed
to sector capacity building.
Despite the recent improvement to trunk and link roads, most

rural communities in RVLB are served only by dry weather earth
roads that become impassable during the rainy season and are
too rough to transport goods safely even in the dry season. All
weather gravel roads are better but, unless they are graded
regularly, these roads can be uneven and damage goods such as
horticultural produce. The development of the resources in the
Basin will therefore require a substantial improvement of the
existing road network. The road projects currently proposed by
the Ethiopian Road Authority (ERA) to be implemented during
RSDP III in the RVLB are shown in Table 5.4.

The main aim of the roads programme is to accelerate the
upgrading of dry weather roads to all weather and asphalt roads
as well as the building of new roads. Improvements should be
prioritised, targeting those areas which will benefit most from
an improved road network.
In addition to the above road projects proposed by ERA and the

regions, the following should be considered:
 Hagere Mariam – Soyama - Karat (Konso): Rehabilitation of

this road by constructing a bridge on the Segen River should
be urgently undertaken, especially in association with the
development of Segen Valley.
 Tula – Hantate - Lower Bilate – Amesa. This 101 km road is
currently in bad condition and its rehabilitation is essential
for the communities who live in the lower Bilate area.
 New east-west link road from Arba Minch to the eastern rift
north-south highway should be constructed which would
facilitate future development in the south western part of the
Basin.
 More extensive rural road network in the southern part of
the Basin is also necessary to connect weredas with
settlement and village centres, schools, clinic etc. to enhance
economic and social development of the disadvantaged
pastoral areas.
 Existing gravel roads in RVLB which are critical to the
development of market orientated agricultural development
should be also be upgraded to asphalt. Furthermore, dry
weather roads provide good service to rural communities
seasonally but these needs to be upgraded to all weather
roads.
With regard to other forms of transport infrastructure,

consideration has been given to developing a rail network in the
RVLB. It is, however, doubtful whether building a new railway
would prove economically feasible, but initial studies could be
undertaken to determine the potential feasibility of this
proposal.

Road projects in the RVLB
Project Length
A. Federal Road Projects
I - Rehabilitation of Trunk
Roads
Nazareth - Assela 79 km (on going)
Addis Ababa - Awasa 263 km
II - Upgrading Trunk Roads
Assela - Dodola - Junction 100 km (from gravel

to asphalt)
Butajira - Hossaina - Sodo 189 km
Arba Minch - Delbana - Jinka 232 km (under
construction)
Alaba - Humbo - Arba Minch 185 km
III- Upgrading Link Roads
Konso - Yabelo 110 km (gravel)
Bole - Bojbar - Werabe 60 km (of 100 km)
Aleta Wondo - Bosaday 80 km (gravel to
asphalt)
Shashemene - Wendo Genet - 37 km (gravel to
Gemeto asphalt)
Mazoria - Durame - Durji 73 km gravel
Ziway - Butajira - Goober 29 km asphalt
IV- Construction of New Roads
Alaba - Alem - Gebeya - 60 km (of 100 km
Wulbareg gravel)
Arba Minch - Kemba - Sawula - 205 km (gravel)
Amesa
Fiseha Genet - Chelelektu - 150 km (gravel)
Konso
V- Heavy Maintenance
Addis Ababa - Mojo - Ziway 37 km (asphalt)
Awasa - Aposto - Dila 82 km (asphalt)
Sodo - Alaba 25 km (asphalt)
Sodo - Arba Minch 120 km (asphalt)
Wendo - Dila 37 km (gravel)
B. Regional Road Projects
IV- Construction of New Roads
Jinka - Beto - Mela 110 km

Kemba - Sawula 57 km
Hossaina - Lisana - Alaba - 44 km
Kulito
Kemba - Daramalo - Beto 35 km
IV- Rehabilitation of Regional
Roads
Moricho - Dimetu - Bedesa - 93 km
Delbo
Arba Minch - Kemba 46 km

In addition, air transport demands are likely to increase as
development progresses and economic activity increases. The
airlines should therefore undertake market studies to determine
the likely future demand for air services.
5.9.2 Market Infrastructure and Facilities

A fair and efficient marketing system is an essential prerequisite
for the implementation of successful agricultural development
programmes. If the markets are characterised by poor
infrastructure, inefficient management and dishonest practices,
as they are now, high marketing costs will prevail and farmers
will not receive adequate prices for their produce. Consequently,
there will be no incentive to increase farm production.
Improving marketing infrastructure, i.e. road networks, market
structures and storage facilities, are therefore critical to
improving the marketing systems. Introduction of regulated
quality standards and grades for agricultural produce,
improving market information systems, expanding and
strengthening of producer cooperatives, and enhancing private
sector participation are also key elements for the proper
functioning of agricultural markets.
The following improvements to the existing marketing systems

within the Basin should therefore be implemented:
 Improve access in rural areas through upgrading and

maintenance of the existing rural road network and the
construction of rural roads and community feeder roads that
link villages to local markets and all weather road networks.
This should be undertaken with full community participation.
 Improve the existing market infrastructure including storage
facilities and loading - unloading areas. Expand market area
to permit an increase in the number of traders.
 Establish and strengthen marketing cooperatives and link
them with potential markets by providing marketing
facilities, such as sales outlets and storage facilities.
 Conduct market monitoring and data collection activities,
and disseminate regular and timely information on market

prices to cooperatives, producers and traders through
market information systems. In addition to prices,
information on quality and location of produce, as well as
future availability of produce should also be equitably
disseminated to traders and farmers.
 Introduce a system of quality standards and grading to
provide farmers with an incentive to supply higher quality
agricultural produce and thereby enhance farm prices and
incomes.
 Establish a system of regular inspection and calibration of
weighing scales to stop fraud by dishonest traders. Helping
farmers to understand the relationship between traditional
volume measurements and weight measures could also
mitigate the problem. In addition, illicit and unlicensed
traders should be barred from the markets in order to
improve market transparency and fairness.
 Raise awareness of farmers for producing high value crops
for the domestic and export markets through the support of
an efficient market-oriented agricultural extension service.
5.9.3 Electricity Supply

The Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation plans to increase the
power supply by almost a factor of three, from the current 791
MW to 2,218 MW by 2010. Furthermore, with the objective of
increasing the low level of access to electricity and thereby
facilitating the socioeconomic development of the urban and
rural areas, the government launched the Universal Electricity
Access Programme (UEAP). Under UEAP, access to electricity
services is expected to reach all urban areas by 2015 and
increase from 17% to 50% of the population in rural areas by
2015 (EEPCo, 2005).
Many of the towns in RVLB, particularly in the northern and
central parts, are currently connected to the main grid which
provides a reasonably reliable supply of electricity. However,
only about 7% of the population in the Basin currently has
access to electricity. There is therefore a sharp contrast between
urban and rural areas, i.e. 50% of urban dwellers benefit from
electricity, while only 1% of people in the rural areas are
connected to the electricity supply.

Under the proposed electrification programme, it is anticipated
that the proportion of population with access to electricity will
increase to 25% by 2015 and to over 60% by 2035. It is
anticipated that all urban households will have access electricity
by 2015. However, in the rural areas, a high proportion of
households will still not be connected due the high cost of
providing transmission lines and connections in the more
remote areas.
In addition to the expansion of the grid, there would also need

to be an increase in the off-grid capacity to increase the supply
of electricity to small towns and villages, particularly in the
southern parts of the Basin. In addition to diesel engines,
alternative energy sources (e.g. solar, wind and micro-hydro)
could provide the necessary power for the off grid electricity
supplies.
Information Communication and Technology (ICT) is one of the
sectors where significant progress has been made over the last
10 years. The government’s vision is "to improve the social and
economic well being of the people through the exploitation of
the opportunities created by ICT for rapid and sustainable
socioeconomic development, and for sustaining a robust
democratic system and good governance."
The restructuring and development of the telecommunications

sector is underway and the Ethiopian Telecommunication
Corporation (ETC) is mandated as the infrastructure developer
and service provider. Telephone (fixed and mobile), internet,
data communications, broadband multimedia and satellite
services are already expanding in urban areas and some rural
areas. Capacity is improving in response to the rapidly
increasing demand for services, particularly in urban areas.
Access to both fixed line and mobile telephone communications

is growing in the RVLB. In future, the aim is to accelerate the
supply of the various services, but mainly telephone and
broadband internet access, with increasing focus being given to
expansion of telecommunications in the rural areas. Providing
effective ICT services is critical to the economic and social
development of the Basin, especially in rural areas. Rural

households may not be able afford their own connections, so
community communication and information centres need to be
established.
There is an increasing demand for both local and international

postal services by all levels of the community. This will drive
continued expansion of services and EPSA is responding to
these demands. The main objectives of the EPSA strategy are to:
(i) provide modern, postal services to the public, and (ii)
establish a well distributed post office network including the
expansion of services to village level.
Reform of the postal system is also necessary to separate the

regulatory and operational functions. This will enhance
operating efficiency and improve the quality of postal services.
There is also need to adopt a more commercial approach to
services and to modernise, diversify and expand services, as
well as to enhance the existing human resources through
training and capacity building.
5.10 Education
5.10.1 The Importance of Education

Education is the most important factor in reducing population
growth rates. There is a strong and well known correlation
between education, especially the education of women, and
reduction in fertility rates. This can be seen clearly in the
difference between population growth rates in large cities like
Addis Ababa, and rural areas, with a similar difference in levels
of literacy and school attendance, especially the attendance of
girls. Population growth is the single biggest barrier to
economic development and reduction of poverty in the RVLB.
This must be a priority.
Further, to achieve a good level of economic growth in the basin,

the balance must move more toward industry and employing
people in the urban centres. This demands an educated
population to be the workforce. Additionally, there is a strong
correlation between education and “successful” farmers (those
who are fairly productive), indicating that achieving the

necessary growth in agricultural productivity also requires a
level of education currently not found in the RVLB.
For government, ensuring provision of education services and

facilities must be a priority within this Master Plan.
5.10.2 Current Situation

The education situation in the RVLB is poor, with literacy rates
in rural areas of only 31% overall and only 19% for females. It is
better in the urban areas but still only 74% overall and 64% for
females. Education is improving, but it must improve much
faster if economic development, especially industrial
development, is to be achieved. Investment needs to be made in
education infrastructure and also in recruiting good teachers.
Education has made some progress in the last 10 years with the
construction of schools and increases in enrolment. Two
Education Sector Development Programmes (ESDP I and II)
have been launched in line with the MDGs. Ethiopia is
implementing the United Nations resolution on Education For
All, which puts literacy as a human right and as ''an
indispensable element'' for economic and social progress. It
reaffirms that basic education for all is essential for achieving
the goals of eradicating poverty, reducing child mortality,
curbing population growth, achieving gender equality and
ensuring sustainable development, peace and democracy.
Universal primary education in Ethiopia has been a government

policy for the last 10 years, and many of the regions are
reporting improvements in school age enrolment rates,
especially for girls. However, the rate of school entry and
completion remains very low in Ethiopia, including in the RVLB.
School age enrolment has improved in recent years. Student /

teacher ratios remain high, with an average of 65 students per
teacher at primary level in Oromiya, and 56 students per
teacher at secondary level. In SNNPRS the situation is a little
worse in primary schools, and much the same at secondary
level, with 54 students per teacher. The national standards are
1:50 for primary and 1:40 for secondary schools, indicating that
further efforts are needed.

National and regional governments continue to improve
education services, trying to attract teachers and to reduce
school construction costs. Special programmes have also been
initiated for rural and pastoral areas where it is more difficult
for children to go to school. Alternative Basic Education Centres
(ABECs) are being built to reach out-of-school children,
including children of pastoralists. There are now 1.3 million
children in ABECs. Moreover, efforts are being made to
strengthen community and NGO participation in the provision of
primary education as well as to increase the participation of
women. Efforts are also being directed at supporting children
with special needs.
The importance of community ownership in education activities

has been recognised, with education and training boards being
formed at wereda and kebele levels. Parents’ and teachers’
associations have also been established in schools at all levels.
Communities contribute to construction and maintenance of
facilities, and in employing paraprofessional primary teachers to
overcome staff shortages.
In Oromiya over 2,000 primary schools were constructed over

the last five years through a joint effort of the community,
government and NGOs. The primary education programme has
shown good improvements in the school participation rate.
However, there remain problems in the participation of girls in
school, in the geographic distribution of schools and equity and
quality of education, which will require a concerted and
coordinated effort to overcome.
Secondary school numbers are also expanding, with the number

of students increasing by a factor of three between 2002 and
2005. The population is growing at a rate that will be difficult to
keep up with in terms of ensuring access to schools and an
adequate number of trained teachers.
5.10.3 Goals
The overall goal for the government Education and Training
Policy is to achieve universal school attendance and completion.
The policy focuses on expanding access to educational
opportunities which are directly relevant to the skills and
expertise required for accelerated economic and social

development. Vocational and non-formal education of a practical
nature is also given particular emphasis.
In order to meet these targets for primary, secondary and

tertiary education, substantial resources are being made
available to: (i) expand existing facilities and construct new
schools and TVET/higher education institutions, (ii) train and
deploy new teachers and lectures, (iii) develop syllabi and
curricula, (iv) provide textbooks, and (v) improve quality
assessment mechanisms.
The decentralisation of education services to improve coverage

and efficiency is also one of the key components of the
government’s education strategy. Responsibility for the
provision of primary and first cycle secondary education
infrastructure and services now lies with weredas, kebeles and
local communities. This provides weredas with the mandate to
administer and manage the construction as well as the operation
of primary and first cycle secondary schools.
The importance of community participation in all education

activities has been recognised and is now part of policy reform.
Education and training boards have been formed at wereda and
kebele levels. Parents’ and teachers’ associations have also been
established in every school as per policy guidelines.
5.10.4 School Building Requirements

The number of school places required is easily estimated based
on population growth, as all new people coming into the basing
are children. For 2005 it is based on the age structure and the
percentage of children in attendance. The estimation of the
number of school places required over the MP period is shown
on Table 5.5.
The percentage growth of improvement in school attendance

between now and the end of the MP period is linear, based on an
assumed 90% attendance target by the end of the period. While
100% would be a nice target, it is unlikely to be achievable.
The total number of school places required, presented in the

right hand column, represents new places as most of the school
children are new, born in the future and requiring school places.

Immediately, represented in the 2005 row, over 2 million new
places are needed to support the increase in percentage
attendance as well as to accommodate new children. This need
drops by 2010 as the annual rate of increase in percentage
attendance slows, and the largest portion of school place needs
is for accommodation of new children.

Number of school places required
Yea Populatio No. of Attendanc No. of school
r n children e targets places required
(million) (million) (%) (million)
Urb Rur Urb Rur Urb Rur Urba Rur Tot
an al an al an al n al al
20 2.30
05 1.12 7.77 0.51 3.50 81% 37% 0.10 2.20
20 1.00
10 1.50 9.28 0.37 1.51 83% 46% 0.31 0.69
20 10.8 1.25
15 1.96 6 0.46 1.58 84% 55% 0.39 0.86
20 12.4 1.50
20 2.52 7 0.56 1.61 86% 64% 0.48 1.02
20 14.1 1.81
25 3.20 4 0.68 1.68 87% 72% 0.59 1.21
20 15.9 2.22
30 4.05 5 0.85 1.81 89% 81% 0.76 1.47
20 17.8 2.63
35 5.10 2 1.05 1.87 90% 90% 0.95 1.69
5.10.5 Teacher Recruitment

The number of teachers and classrooms required can also be
estimated. This is based on school place needs from Table 5.5,
with reference to the current teacher / student ratios and the
national standard for teacher / student ratios. The current
teacher / student ration averages about 1:60, combining urban
and rural, and the national standard averages at 1:45. The
requirements for new teachers, which are the same as the
requirements for new classrooms, are shown on Table 5.6.

There are currently 37,000 teachers working in the RVLB, about
14,000 short of the target for parity with national standards.
There are teacher training colleges in the RVLB at Hosaina,
Arba Minch, Awasa and Bonga. Among them there were just
over 8,000 students enrolled in teacher training, which falls far
short of the teacher recruitment requirements. Increasing
capacity at these colleges or building new ones and recruiting
teachers to educate the student teachers is a major challenge,
but one which is absolutely necessary if economic development
of the RVLB is to succeed.

Number of teacher recruits required
Year Required teacher
recruitment
Urban Rural Total
51,08
2005 2,136 48,949 6
22,17
2010 6,812 15,365 7
27,83
2015 8,662 19,177 9
33,26
2020 10,561 22,704 5
40,11
2025 13,156 26,956 2
49,37
2030 16,793 32,581 4
58,49
2035 21,006 37,487 3
Total recruits over MP 282,3
Period 46
5.11 Health
5.11.1 The Importance of Health

Health is a primary factor in the social and economic
development of the RVLB. When health is poor productivity is

low and, in every sector, productivity needs to grow. Health
facilities will also be epicentres for disseminating knowledge on
family planning, a key platform in the battle for population
control. Ensuring good health requires sufficient infrastructure
and good access to health workers. There is a direct link
between health and water supply and sanitation. There is also a
direct link between health and education.
For government, investing in health services must be a priority

within this Master Plan. Additionally, and as noted above,
investment in water supply and sanitation and in education must
be a priority.
5.11.2 Current Situation

diagnostic facilities. The health care facilities cannot handle the
Hospitals are very few and often far away from needs, especially
as the transport network is also poor, particularly in the more
remote areas.
Poor nutrition, linked to poverty, and its health impacts, are a

main concern in the RVLB, partly because malnutrition makes
people vulnerable to all other diseases. The incidence of water-
borne diseases is also a primary health issue in the RVLB,
because most people obtain their water from unprotected
sources. Poor water supply and essentially no access to proper
sanitation are the leading causes of diarrhoea, typhoid, cholera
and related diseases. The problem is exacerbated by the lack of
health education and the very limited understanding of the link
between hygiene and health. Schistosomiasis and malaria, also
water borne diseases, are endemic to the RVLB. Sexually
transmitted infections (STIs) are also a concern as they are
prevalent in the RVLB. Prevention of the transmission of STIs is
considered a priority in Ethiopia.

Health problems are also driven by the fact that health services
and facilities are so sparse. The poor distribution and low
numbers of health care facilities, combined with low access to
transport and poor transport infrastructure, means people have
only limited access to health care. There is a very low number of
health care professionals in the basin (though not much worse
than the rest of Ethiopia), especially in rural areas and in more
distant communities.
5.11.3 Current Health Programme

Under the government’s health programme, primary health care
and preventive services will continue to be the main focus of
health care provision with increasing priority being given to: (i)
extending the services to communities which have yet to be
reached, and (ii) improving the effectiveness of the services,
particularly with respect to staffing issues and the availability of
drugs.
Significantly increasing the numbers of health care staff as well

as staff training and capacity building are therefore crucial. This
includes doctors, nurses, health extension workers, laboratory
technicians and managerial/supporting staff. Enhancing the
existing health facilities and equipment as well as improving the
supply of drugs is also essential.
A multidisciplinary approach to health care should be taken in

order to coordinate the various organisations involved in health
care and related services. This includes better collaboration
with NGOs and international agencies. Directives and guidelines
also need to be prepared and followed by the various
organisations and health workers, to ensure that effective and
sustainable health care services are provided.
Family planning services also need strengthening. There is

already political commitment to family planning, but
implementation of the programme needs to be accelerated in
order to reduce population growth significantly. The malaria
control programme should also be intensified so that it can be
used as a focal point for the integration of all vector borne
diseases. This will help coordinate efforts of various specialists,
such as epidemiologists, entomologists, surveillance officers,
sanitary engineers and laboratory technicians assigned at

different levels. Inter-sectoral coordination is critically
important for the control of vectors for diseases, especially at
the intermediate and lower levels of administration.
As already noted, improving access to safe and adequate water

supply is fundamental to improving the health of the population.
Nutrition education also must be widely extended, particularly
in rural areas. Furthermore. guidelines are needed for
development projects such as irrigation and water supply, so
that environmental mitigation measures and health safeguards
are implemented to prevent further spread of the water borne
diseases.
5.11.4 Health Professional Requirements

The analysis presented in Section 4.16 above on the number of
health care professionals and facilities is for Oromiya and
SNNPRS as whole regions, as those were the statistics
available. From Tables 4.1 and 4.2 it is possible to take the ratio
of health care professionals and health care facilities to
population and apply them to RVLB on the assumption that they
will be much the same.
For health care professionals, assuming the same ratio of

professionals to population, the current numbers in the RVLB
are presented in Table 5.7. The table also shows the numbers
required through the Master Plan period as populations grow.
Doctors and nurses are based on WHO standards.
Environmental Health Workers (EHW) and Health Extension
Workers (HEW) are based on an initial assumption of two per
kebele and five per kebele respectively, and growing with
population after that goal has been reached.
Subtracting the top line from the bottom line for each health
worker type indicates the number of workers that will require
training and recruiting over the MP period. It is unlikely that
there are educational facilities with the capacity to train so
many more people so quickly, so investments will also be
required in post secondary medical schools and other colleges.

Number of health professionals required
WHO standards Health care worker type
ratio 1:10,0 1:5,0 2,400 6,000
00 00 * *
Populat Physici Nurs
Year ion an e EHW HEW
8,894,03
2005 4 61 1,120 113 682
10,774,1
2010 82 87 1,446 1,760 1,235
12,816,8
2015 20 127 1,841 3,408 1,788
14,981,5
2020 96 192 2,315 5,056 2,341
17,339,0
2025 76 314 2,899 6,704 2,894
19,999,2
2030 75 613 3,643 8,352 3,447
22,923,9
2035 42 2,292 4,585 10,000 4,000
3,45
Total Recruitment 2,231 6 9,887 3,318
* EHW and HEW ‘standard’ numbers are based on an assumption of the
number of workers per kebele, then growing with population
5.11.5 Health Facility Requirements

Health facilities also need to be expanded greatly. Table 5.8
shows the number of health care facilities in the RVLB by type.
The required health care facilities are based on an assumed
increase of a factor of 10. While this may be a rather subjective
way of determining needs, it is reasonable in terms of numbers
of facilities on a per capita basis. The table shows the number of
people each facility services, both now (2005) and in 2035, with
target service level. The target service level is significantly
better.

Number of health facilities required
Zone Distric Health Child Clinic
hospit t centre health
al hospit centre
al
Current
Number 8 4 114 107 287
People served 1,071,6 2,120,0
2005 00 00 78,250 83,100 31,000
Target Number 80 40 1,100 1,000 3,000
People served 290,00 575,00
2035 0 0 21,000 23,000 7,500
In addition to health facilities, programmes are required

covering specific aspects related to hygiene: (i) sewerage
systems in all urban areas, (ii) urban waste collection and
disposal, and (iii) household and communal sanitary facilities
(including pit latrines, flush toilets, aqua/compost toilets, hand
washing facilities, cesspits, septic tanks, waste disposal sites
and stabilisation ponds) in rural areas, (iii) hygiene promotion,
and (iv) health education.
6 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES
6.1 Introduction
The establishment of a development strategy for the Basin is a

key stage in the planning process. During Phase 2, alternative
patterns of land and water use have been explored, based on
different approaches to the development of the Basin’s natural
and human resources and changes in the agricultural and
industrial production systems. As the population grows, land
degradation will increase and conflicts over the use of the
natural resources, particularly land and water, will also
intensify. The consequences of further land degradation have
therefore been assessed and potential social conflicts identified.
Appropriate measures to mitigate these adverse environment

and social impacts were then determined, as part of an
integrated development plan to develop improved production
systems and enhanced public infrastructure and facilities.
In spite of the considerable potential for the development of

natural resources, the Rift Valley Lakes Basin is still
underdeveloped, and the majority of the population live below
the poverty line. The economy is dominated by the agricultural
sector with a relatively small urban and industrial sector. The
Basin is therefore predominantly rural in nature and many areas
are isolated. Human poverty indicators such as life expectancy,
access to health care, level of literacy/education, and standard
of nutrition are also poor. Many weredas are in food deficit, and
farmers are unable to feed their families due to low levels of
agricultural productivity, rainfall variability, small holding size
and poor soil fertility. Furthermore, in some parts of the Basin
(particularly in the drought prone southern lowlands), food
shortages are a frequent occurrence and the population is
dependent of emergency food aid.
Four alternative development strategies have been formulated

based on:
 analysis of key issues and constraints facing the

development of the RVLB, as outlined in Chapter 4; and
 assessment of the range of development opportunities and
potential interventions for each sector of the economy which
contribute to sustainable development and poverty reduction
in the RVLB (as discussed in Section 5).
These strategies aim to make optimum use of all natural and

human resources on an integrated basis with minimal adverse
social and environmental impact. The preferred strategies are
also:
i. in accordance with national, regional and sectoral policies,

and
ii. acceptable to regional governments and the general public as
well relevant organisations, both nationally and regionally,
responsible for sectoral development.

Implementation capacity, as well as the availability of human,
financial and institutional resources, were also taken into
account. The four development strategies are:
Strategy A: Subsistence Based Agricultural Development

Strategy B: Integrated Socioeconomic Development
Strategy C: Market Orientated Economic Development
Strategy D: Accelerated Industrial Development
The alternative strategies are described in Section 6.2 below

and their principal features are summarised in Table 6.1 below.
In addition, in order to assist with the identification of a suitable
strategy for each development zone, the tentative impacts of
alternative development strategies were determined based on
the following criteria:
 economic growth (25 year average annual growth);

 poverty reduction (% population below poverty line);
 economic diversification (agriculture, industry and services
as % of GDP);
 employment (% population employed in agriculture, industry
and services);
 benefit distribution;
 social and institutional sustainability;
 risk and uncertainty; and
 environmental impact
This tentative assessment is given in Table 6.2 below. An

appropriate development strategy was then identified for each
of the eight development zones (DZs). Together with the
findings of the Economic Resource Optimisation and Allocation
Model (see Section 7.3 and 7.5), this provided the basis for
formulation of the Zonal Development Plans (ZDPs) which are
discussed in Sections 8.6 and 8.7.

6.2 Alternative Development Strategies
6.2.1 Strategy A: Subsistence Based Agricultural Development

This strategy is focused on increasing subsistence based
agricultural production (crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry)
in order to:
(i) increase household incomes and reduce poverty in the rural

areas,
(ii) improve food security,
(iii)increase agricultural employment;
(iv) expand agricultural surpluses for both domestic and export
markets;
(v) increase supply of fuel wood and timber.
This will be achieved through:
 increased crop and livestock productivity in rainfed,

subsistence farming and pastoral areas (via adoption of
improved farming practices and provision of agricultural
support services) as well as the expansion of micro and small
scale irrigation;
 conservation of natural resources through the
implementation of SWC measures and agro-forestry on
degraded land, expansion of sustainable forestry and
protected forest areas using a community based approach;
 expansion of natural resource based industries and related
support services (e.g. input supply, transport and marketing)
in response to an expansion of agricultural surpluses;
 expansion of micro and small scale enterprises via the
provision of micro-credit and training, particularly in rural
areas;
 improved economic infrastructure (i.e. roads, markets and
telecommunications) and public services (i.e. water supply,
health, education and banking) to improve social welfare and
facilitate an expansion of natural resource based industries
as
well as agricultural trade; and
 institutional strengthening and capacity building to enhance
good governance, democratisation and local empowerment.

6.2.2 Strategy B: Integrated Socioeconomic Development
This strategy is focused on increasing crop and livestock
production together with an expansion of livelihood
opportunities in both the urban and non-farm rural sectors in
order to:
(i) increase household incomes and reduce poverty in both the

urban and rural areas,
(ii) improve food security,
(iii)increase urban and rural employment;
(iv) expand agricultural surpluses; and
(v) increase supply of fuel wood and timber.
 increased crop and livestock productivity in rainfed and

pastoral areas and the expansion of micro and small scale
irrigation;
 encouraging private investment in high value farm
enterprises such as horticulture, floriculture and intensive
livestock enterprises (e.g. poultry);
degraded land, expansion of sustainable forestry and
protected forest areas using a community based approach;
 expansion of private investment in natural resource based
industries and related support services in response to an
expansion of agricultural surpluses;
 industrial development through increased private investment
in micro, small and medium scale industrial/commercial
enterprises via provision of credit, training and an improved
legal and regulatory framework;
 improved economic infrastructure and public services to
facilitate agricultural trade and industrial development in
both the urban and rural areas as well as to improve social
welfare; and
 institutional strengthening and capacity building to enhance
good governance, democratisation and local empowerment.

6.2.3 Strategy C: Market Orientated Economic Development
This strategy is focused on the commercialisation of smallholder
agriculture together with a major expansion of employment
opportunities in both the urban and non-farm rural sectors in
order to:
(i) accelerate economic growth,

(ii) significantly increase household incomes in both the urban
and rural areas,,
(iii) improve food security,
(iv) increase urban and non-farm rural employment; and
(v) accelerate the production of agricultural surpluses.
 commercialisation of smallholder farming to significantly

improve agricultural and livestock productivity as well as
facilitate the expansion of high value cash crops and more
intensive livestock systems;
 facilitating private investment in high value farm enterprises
such as horticulture, floriculture and intensive livestock
enterprises (e.g. poultry);
 increasing farm size through land reform and encourage the
adoption of improved farm implements and advanced
agricultural technologies;
degraded land by private landowners and farmers, as well as
the expansion of private plantations for timber production;
 significant expansion of private investment in natural
resource based industries and related support services in
response to the rapid expansion of agricultural surpluses;
 industrial development through increased private investment
in small, medium and large scale industrial/commercial
enterprises via financial incentives, provision of credit and
an improved legal and regulatory framework;
 substantial improvement of economic infrastructure and
public services to facilitate rapid expansion of industrial
development and agricultural trade in both urban and rural
areas; and

 institutional strengthening and capacity building within a
reformed institutional and legal framework, e.g. land
ownership and tenure reform, which will help to facilitate an
increase in farm size.
6.2.4 Strategy D: Accelerated Industrial Development

This strategy is focused on rapidly increasing the industrial and
commercial sectors together with the transformation of the
agricultural sector towards commercial smallholders and large
scale farms to meet the demands of a growing urban population
and to:
(i) attain high levels of economic growth,

(ii) significantly increase household incomes in the urban areas,
(iii)increase urban employment; and
(iv) accelerate the production of agricultural surpluses.
 rapid industrial development through increased private

investment in small, medium and large industrial and
commercial enterprises (including direct foreign investment)
via financial incentives, provision of credit and improved
legal and regulatory framework etc;
 substantial expansion of private investment in natural
resource based industries and related support services in
response to the rapid expansion of agricultural surpluses;
 accelerated development of commercial smallholder farming
systems through land reform in order to significantly
improve agricultural productivity, expand the area of cash
crops and intensify livestock production systems;
 increased smallholder farm size through a land reform and
land consolidation programme and encourage the adoption
of farm mechanisation and advanced agricultural
technologies to reduce agricultural employment and release
surplus labour for industry and services;
 facilitating private investment in high value farm enterprises
such as horticulture, floriculture and intensive livestock
enterprises (e.g. poultry);

 encouraging the expansion of large scale, mechanised
agricultural development (in both rainfed and irrigated
areas);
 urbanisation: major expansion of economic infrastructure
and public services in urban areas with links to rural areas
to facilitate accelerated expansion of industrial development
and commercial agriculture;
implementation of SWC measures on degraded land by
private landowners and farmers, as well as the expansion of
private plantations for timber production;
 institutional strengthening and capacity building within a
reformed institutional and legal framework which
encourages the increase in farm size and the expansion of
large scale, mechanised agriculture, e.g. land ownership and
tenure reform.

Table DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES.23: Principal features of alternative development
strategies
Economic sector Development strategies
Strategy A: Strategy B: Strategy C: Strategy D:
Subsistence based Integrated Market oriented Accelerated
agricultural socioeconomic economic industrial
Commercialisation of small
Transformation of
Subsistence agriculture Subsistence agricultural holder agriculture plus
agricultural sector towards
based development in development plus private expansion of private
commercial smallholders,
smallholder and pastoral investment in commercial investment in high value
Agriculture, Fisheries and high value farm enterprise
areas (including SWC, agro- crop and livestock farm enterprises (i.e.
Forestry and expansion of large
forestry and micro/small enterprises (including SWC, horticulture, floriculture
scale, mechanised farms.
scale irrigation) to produce agro-forestry and irrigation and intensive livestock).
Land reform and land
farm surpluses development). Land reform programme
consolidation required.
required.
Economic diversification Expansion of private Rapid industrialisation via
Private investment in agro-
through private investment investment in agro- small, medium & large
industries in response to
Industry and Commerce in agro-industries plus industries plus accelerated scale enterprises (including
growth of farm surpluses
(including Mining and expansion of small and industrial expansion via direct foreign investment)
plus expansion of micro and
Tourism) medium scale industrial & small and medium scale plus substantial expansion
small scale enterprises via
commercial enterprises via enterprises using financial of private investment in
micro-credit and training
credit and training incentives and credit agro-industries
Expansion of education, Substantial improvement in
Expansion of education, Rapid expansion of
health and water supply education, health and water
Public Services: health and water supply education, health and water
services to facilitate supply services in rural and
Education, Health and services in rural and urban supply services primarily in
agricultural/industrial dev’t urban areas to facilitate
Water Supply areas to enhance social urban areas to facilitate
and improve social welfare agricultural and industrial
welfare industrial development
in rural and urban areas development

Economic sector Development strategies
Expansion of economic Expansion of economic Substantial improvement in Rapid expansion of
Economic Infrastructure:
infrastructure in rural and infrastructure to primarily economic infrastructure in economic infrastructure
Roads, Markets,
urban areas to enhance facilitate agricultural and rural and urban areas to primarily in urban areas to
Electricity and
social welfare and industrial dev’t in rural and facilitate agricultural and facilitate urbanisation and
Telecommunications
economic development urban areas industrial development/ industrial development

Table DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES.24: Tentative economic, social and
environmental impacts of alternative development strategies
Development strategies
Development Criteria
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction
Economic Growth: annual growth rate (%) 4% to 5% 6% to 7% 7% to 8% 9%+
Poverty Reduction: % pop. below poverty
20% 17% 15% 25%
line in 2035 1/
Economic Diversification: 2/
Agriculture as % of GDP in 2035 50% 45% 40% 30%
Industry as % of GDP in 2035 10% 12% 14% 18%
Services as % of GDP in 2035 40% 43% 46% 52%
Employment: 3/
% population employed in agriculture in
55% 50% 45% 35%
2035
% population employed in industry in 2035 9% 11% 13% 17%
% population employed in services in 2035 36% 39% 42% 48%
Benefit Distribution, Social Sustainability
and Risk
Benefit distribution
Balanced benefit Balanced benefit skewed towards
Benefit distribution
distribution with distribution if social commercial farm
Benefit Distribution skewed towards poor
focus on poverty safeguards are enterprises and
groups
reduction implemented medium/large scale
industrial companies
Potentially disruptive
Low sustainability in
and unsustainable in
High social absence of measures
Social and Institutional Sustainability Socially sustainable absence of measures
sustainability to address negative
to address negative
social impacts
social impacts
Risk and Uncertainty Very low risk Low risk Medium risk High risk
Very low adverse Some adverse impact Potentially high
Low adverse impact;
impact; high without adequate adverse impact
Environmental Impact environmentally
environmental regulation and without regulation and
sustainable
sustainability mitigation measures mitigation measures
1/ In 2005, 50% of population below poverty line in RVLB.
2/ In 2005, % of GDP: Agriculture – 69%, Industry – 8%, Services – 23%.
3/ In 2005, % of population employed: Agriculture – 74%, Industry – 7%, Services – 19%.

6.3 Development Zones
6.3.1 Identification and Delineation of Development Zones

The Rift Valley Lakes Basin has a total area of about 52,000 km 2,
showing a diversity of conditions with respect to climate,
topography, soils, natural resources, land use, farming systems,
population density, as well as economic and social
infrastructure. For planning purposes, the variety of conditions
in the Basin necessitates a breakdown into broad development
zones. Development zones (DZs), as defined in the ToR, are
“areas which are relatively homogeneous with respect to their
natural resources and socioeconomic characteristics. They
should be small enough in extent to aggregate within
administrative boundaries, and large enough to represent
coherent land use and social systems. They should also exhibit
homogeneity in terms of development issues, potentials and
constraints”.
Development zoning is a strategic concept which helps planners

and policy makers to understand the diversity of natural
resources and socioeconomic features, as well as the
development potential, within different parts of the Basin.
However, the zones do not constitute formal administrative
units, and implementation of Master Plan programmes and
projects will still take place through the local administrative
structure (at regional, zonal and wereda levels) and through
existing federal channels.
Nevertheless, for DZs to be functional, it is essential that they

are compatible with the existing administrative structure.
Unless this is achieved, implementation of the Master Plan will
encounter numerous difficulties. Under the GoE’s
decentralisation programme, implementation of regional plans
will primarily take place at wereda level. Weredas were
therefore used as building blocks for the development zones to
facilitate the implementation of Master Plan projects and
programmes within the context of the regional development
plans. In addition, DZs were delineated in accordance with
boundaries of Oromiya and SNNP regional states and therefore
do not cross regional boundaries.

Administrative boundaries do not, however, fully reflect the
spatial distribution of a wide range of natural resources,
climatic conditions and socioeconomic features. In fact, no
zoning system could accurately reconcile all these different
aspects, so a compromise is required which takes account of the
administrative boundaries as well as the diversity of physical
and socioeconomic characteristics.
The criteria for the delineation and definition of DZs were

developed through a process of stakeholder consultation. The
main criteria used to delineate development zones for the Rift
Valley Lakes Basin were:
 present farming systems and land use which reflect a range

of natural resources features and socioeconomic
characteristics;
 spatial relationships and linkages between development
centres, i.e. the settlement hierarchy, road/communications
network, development corridors and the main flows of goods
and services between rural and urban areas;
 physically contiguous areas to ensure that the development
zones are of a reasonably large size.
Agriculture is the most important sector of the Basin’s economy,

and the wide range of farming systems provides a sound basis
for the delineation of development zones in order to reflect fully
the diversity of natural resources and socioeconomic features
within the Basin. The main farming systems include: (i) highland
mixed farming (cereal based), (ii) lowland mixed farming (cereal
based), (iii) highland mixed farming (enset/coffee based), (iv)
pastoral and agro-pastoral systems, and (v) commercial farming.
Land use and agro-ecological conditions are also highly

influenced by climate, topography, soils, population density and
development potential and, within the Basin, there is a vast
range of natural and man made landscapes. The major types of
land use include cultivated land, forests, woodland, plantations,
shrubland, grassland, lakes, bare land, salt flats and
settlements.
With regard to spatial relationships and linkages between

development centres, the hierarchy of urban centres and the

transportation network, together with the current and projected
population densities, are important criteria for the delineation of
the development zones. These criteria reflect the dynamic
nature of socioeconomic development within the Basin and the
development opportunities which are likely to emerge with
improved public infrastructure and greater economic
diversification. The orientation of the local population is also
highly influenced by the existing road and market network as
well as by cultural linkages.
Spatial relationships, however, also present a major problem for

basin development planning, as the urban hierarchy and road
network may well be focused towards towns situated outside the
Basin. In the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, the obvious examples are
Addis Ababa and Nazret; these cities are located in the Awash
Basin, but still influence development in the northern part of
RVLB.
The delineation of development zones has strictly followed

wereda boundaries and, in the case of weredas comprising two
or more farming systems, the dominant farming system has
taken precedence. It should be noted, however, that
development zones are primarily used for planning purposes
and so there will be some anomalies.
Following a detailed appraisal of all information relating to the

above criteria, eight development zones were identified. These
development zones are shown in Figure 6.1 and are listed as
follows:
DZ 1: North East Highland Zone
DZ 2: North Central Lowland Zone
DZ 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 4: Eastern Enset and Coffee Zone
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 6: Southern Mixed Farming Zone
DZ 7: Pastoral Zone: SNNPRS
DZ 8: Pastoral Zone: Oromiya
The main characteristics of each development zone, together

with their respective key development constraints, are outlined
below. The strategies required to overcome these constraints

and meet the objectives of sustainable development and poverty
reduction within each zone are also discussed.
Development zones were defined in accordance with the

selected criteria in order to:
(i) assess the development opportunities and constraints as well

as identify appropriate development strategies;
(ii) determine optimum allocation of resources within each zone
to achieve economic and social development with minimal
adverse environmental impact (see Section 7.5: Economic
Resource Optimisation and Allocation Model), and
(iii)prepare zonal development plans comprising programme
and projects to meet the overall objective of sustainable
development and poverty reduction.
The Development Zones in the RVLB are described in the

following sections. For ease of reference, Table 6.3 and Table
6.4 summarise the physical and socioeconomic characteristics of
each development zone.
6.3.2 Zone 1: North East Highland Zone

The North East Highland Zone comprises 6 weredas in Oromiya
Region, namely: Hitosa, Kofele, Tiyo, Degeluna Tijo, Munessa
and Limuna Bilbilo. The zone has a total area of 4,041 km 2 with
an estimated population of 849,562 (i.e. 210 people per km 2)
comprising 83% rural and 17% urban. The main ethnic groups
are Oromo (84%) and Amhara (15%).
The economy is dominated by agriculture which accounts for

70% of zonal GDP compared with industry (11%) and services
(19%). Agriculture also employs 76% of the population, with
industry (5%) and services (19%). Smallholders operate 90% of
the farmland and the average smallholding size is 1.90 hectares.
Over 20 large commercial companies (state and private) manage
the remaining 10% of farmland and have an average size of
2,610 hectares.

Figure DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES.10:
Development zones

Table DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES.25: Physical characteristics of development
zones
DZ name DZ 1 DZ 2 DZ 3 DZ 4 DZ 5 DZ 6 DZ 7 DZ 8
North North North Eastern Eastern Southern Pastoral Pastoral
East Central West enset and mixed mixed zone: Zone:
highland lowland mixed coffee farming farming SNNP Oromiya
zone zone farming zone zone zone
zone
Highland Lowland Lowland Enset/Coff Enset/Coff Lowland Pastoral Pastoral
Cereal Cereal and ee and ee and and and Agro- and Agro-
Based Based Highland Lowland Lowland Highland pastoral pastoral
Main Farming System(s) Mixed Mixed Cereal Cereal Cereal Cereal
Farming Farming Based Based Based Based
Mixed Mixed Mixed Mixed
Farming Farming Farming Farming
Region Oromiya Oromiya SNNP SNNP Oromiya SNNP SNNP Oromiya
Asela Shasheme Hossaina, Awasa, Hagere Arba Jinka* Teltele,
ne, Arsi Sodo, Dila, Yirga Mariam* Minch, Yabelo*
Main urban centre(s) Negele, Butajira Alem, Gidole
Meki Yirga
Chefe
Gross Area and Altitude
Gross area (km2) 4,041 7,521 8,947 4,850 3,492 12,607 5,134 5,578
Zone area as % of basin area 7.7% 14.4% 17.1% 9.3% 6.7% 24.2% 9.8% 10.7%
Altitude range - 80%+ of zone 1,770 to 1,510 to 1,175 to 1,175 to 1,175 to 555 to 485 to 485 to
(masl) 4,170 3,605 3,470 3,195 2,835 3,530 3,375 2,365
Major Land Use Types (% of
DZ)
Forest 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Woodland 1.1% 13.3% 3.1% 0.1% 4.4% 14.8% 24.2% 5.1%
Shrubland 10.5% 12.0% 16.4% 13.6% 59.7% 56.7% 57.8% 75.0%
Plantation 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Farm forestry 3.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cultivated (intensively and 75.9% 47.4% 69.7% 69.2% 10.0% 19.5% 4.7% 6.6%

zone
moderately)
Bare Land with Scattered 0.1% 0.0%
0.8% 3.5% 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vegetation
Grassland 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 8.5% 6.3% 1.0% 7.7% 7.4%
Lake/Salt Flat 0.0% 16.0% 0.4% 1.9% 18.8% 6.4% 5.5% 5.9%
Urban 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Slope Class (% of DZ)
Flat to almost flat (00-80) 36% 84% 71% 50% 54% 40% 56% 60%
Undulating to fairly steep (80-150) 6% 9% 16% 24% 24% 17% 11% 16%
Fairly steep to steep (150-300) 16% 5% 9% 21% 18% 25% 17% 16%
Steep to very steep (›30 ) 0
42% 1% 4% 5% 4% 18% 16% 8%
Rainfall
Mean annual rainfall (mm) 874 876 1,087 1,247 1,127 1,098 874 615
Annual rainfall for 80%+ of zone 700 to 700 to 800 to 1,000 to 800 to 700 to 800 to
450 to 800
(mm) 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,200 1,500 1,200
Soil Types (% of DZ)
Fluvisols (FL) 2% 5% 3% 9% 14% 10% 23%
Luvisols (LV) 69% 22% 39% 82% 20% 17% 7% 12%
Vertisols (VR) 5% 15% 1% 13% 5% 7%
Nitisols (NT) 24% 4% 9% 1% 44% 20% 12%
Cambisols (CM) 2% 8% 19% 7% 36% 45% 28%
Andosols (AN) 29% 8% 1% 20%
Arenosols (AR) 5% 2% 1% 1%
Leptosols (LP) 2% 2% 2% 8% 3%

zone
Solonetz (SN) 13% 1% 3% 3% 12%
Other (water body) 15% 2% 11% 7% 7% 3%
Note: * = urban area outside of RVLB

Table DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND ZONES.26: Socioeconomic characteristics of
development zones
Socioeconomic characteristic DZ 1 DZ 2 DZ 3 DZ 4 DZ 5 DZ 6 DZ 7 DZ 8 RVLB
Population
849,56 1,180, 2,860, 2,971, 347,7 1,368, 170,2 41,74 9,789,6
Total population (2005)
2 561 644 024 45 133 30 1 41
146,85 187,07 411,05 356,19 139,44 11,39 1,260,4
Urban population 3,500 4,934
9 4 6 6 0 5 54
702,70 993,48 2,449, 2,614, 344,2 1,228, 158,8 36,80 8,529,1
Rural population
3 7 588 828 45 693 35 7 87
Zonal population as % of Basin 100.0%
8.7% 12.1% 29.2% 30.3% 3.6% 14.0% 1.7% 0.4%
population
Population density
210 157 320 613 100 109 33 7 188
(population/km2)
Ethnic groups
Amhara 15% 7% 1% 5% 1% 3% 7% 1% 5%
Ari 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 55% 0% 1%
Gamo & Goffa 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 53% 0% 0% 9%
Gedeo 0% 0% 0% 21% 24% 0% 0% 0% 7%
Gedole & Hamer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 0% 2%
Hadiya & Kembata 0% 4% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Konso 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0% 30% 3%
Koyera & Mali 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 17% 0% 3%
Oromo 84% 80% 0% 5% 74% 1% 0% 69% 23%
Sidama 0% 0% 0% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19%
Siltie 0% 1% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
Wolayita 0% 2% 27% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 9%
Other 1% 6% 15% 1% 1% 8% 5% 0% 7%
Zonal Economy
945,43 1,204, 2,287, 2,508, 281,6 1,125, 166,4 23,61 8,543,2
RGDP ('000 ETB/annum)
8 663 050 948 91 335 67 9 11

RGDP per capita (ETB) - 2005
1,113 1,020 799 844 810 823 978 566 873
prices
% contribution to RGDP from:
Natural Resources Sector 69.9% 75.2% 70.1% 67.1% 86.5% 61.9% 71.5% 62.6% 69.4%
Industry Sector 11.2% 4.6% 5.4% 8.9% 5.1% 9.3% 4.0% 6.4% 7.5%
Service Sector 18.9% 20.1% 24.5% 24.0% 8.4% 28.8% 24.5% 31.0% 23.2%
% population employed in:
Natural Resources Sector 75.8% 75.5% 73.3% 73.9% 76.2% 73.0% 79.5% 83.1% 74.0%
Industry Sector 5.1% 5.6% 7.8% 6.2% 6.5% 7.6% 6.2% 4.0% 7.0%
Service Sector 19.2% 18.8% 18.9% 20.0% 17.2% 19.4% 14.3% 12.9% 19.0%
Farm Structure
274,49 355,15 1,220, 1,086, 204,7 530,50 127,9 39,89 3,840,2
Number of smallholdings
9 8 835 532 93 4 86 5 02
Average size of smallholdings (ha) 1.90 1.37 0.75 0.40 0.64 0.69 0.68 0.96 0.77
Number of large commercial/state
21 21 20 2 0 19 0 0
farms 83
Average size (ha) of large
2,611 2,676 2,760 2,168 2,669
commercial/state farms 2,666
Farming Systems
Farming system as % of total
area:
Commercial Farming System 1.7% 14.7% 5.4% 1.8% 0.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 4.2%
Enset based Mixed Farming
12.4% 1.4% 42.9% 69.8% 17.5% 45.1% 0.3% 9.9% 28.5%
System
Highland Cereals Mixed Farming
76.7% 3.7% 6.2% 0.5% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1%
System
Lowland Cereals Mixed Farming
9.2% 64.4% 43.7% 20.7% 44.7% 42.0% 14.1% 0.8% 33.4%
System
Pastoral and Agro Pastoral 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 2.1% 80.9% 80.5% 18.4%
Lakes/water bodies/salt flats 0.0% 15.8% 1.7% 1.9% 11.9% 7.2% 4.2% 8.8% 6.6%

Major Crops
277,3 336,3 508,6 222,0 73,83 340,0 35,56 73,73 1,867,6
Total crop area (ha)
38 93 69 75 9 71 8 3 87
211,28 281,20 305,88 17,60 239,79 17,54 60,38 1,183,6
Cereals 49,995
4 7 6 4 6 7 0 99
13,28
Pulses 28,844 31,820 64,476 18,109 4,579 40,322 8,101
8 209,538
Oilseeds 16,206 5,534 754 128 0 3,600 73 10 26,306
Vegetables 9,307 9,276 34,706 10,655 4,600 4,952 85 54 73,636
Roots 5,023 5,528 32,319 8,850 934 23,806 653 1 77,113
Fruit 0 14 3,218 3,145 1,982 6,019 822 0 15,201
11,74
Enset 6,586 2,692 39,777 51,827 15,616 3,144 0
7 131,389
17,67
Chat 88 313 19,950 47,319 3,176 2,599 0
0 91,115
14,72
Coffee 0 10 7,583 32,047 2,785 2,543 0
2 59,690
Irrigation
Total irrigated area (ha) 1,745 3,228 2,460 2,529 0 12,480 100 0 22,542
Livestock
1,096, 993,05 2,038, 1,217, 461,5 1,055, 497,3 177,4 7,538,3
Number of livestock (TLUs)
487 0 777 825 61 848 67 28 43
Livestock density (TLU per km2) 271 132 228 251 132 84 97 32 144
Natural Resources
Average annual lake fish catch
254 1,470 545 697 355 4,079 0 0
(tonnes) 7,399
Average annual non-lake fish catch
59 77 109 54 54 138 112 136
(tonnes) 739
Woody biomass per annum: 1,384, 1,191, 3,704, 3,126, 566,6 1,470, 234,4 103,8 11,782,
fuelwood (tonnes) 074 364 479 909 71 273 53 54 077
Woody biomass per annum: timber 19,588 21,930 63,794 54,511 11,96 29,670 6,097 2,508 210,063

(tonnes) 4
Education, Health and Water
Supply
School enrolment rate 56% 55% 69% 57% 42% 63% 47% 29% 60%
Health workers per '000 people 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.57 0.20 0.55 0.22 0.07 0.50
Access to clean water:
% rural population 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
% urban population 71% 79% 33% 51% 0% 26% 31% 0% 48%
% total population 12% 14% 4% 6% 0% 3% 2% 0% 6%
Economic Infrastructure
Road Infrastructure (km): 580 906 1,084 955 313 947 435 373 5,593
Trunk and link roads 265 484 636 388 59 124 0 0 1,956
Other all weather road 241 158 343 262 108 411 185 160 1,868
Dry weather road 74 264 105 305 146 412 250 213 1,769
Road density (km of road per
144 120 121 197 90 75 85 67 107
1,000 km2)
Road density (km of road per
0.68 0.77 0.38 0.32 0.90 0.69 2.56 8.94 0.57
1,000 people)
Access to electricity:
% rural population 27% 32% 46% 62% 13% 73% 28% 20% 42%
% urban population 73% 73% 86% 83% 19% 35% 61% 43% 77%
% total population 34% 38% 50% 64% 13% 40% 30% 22% 45%

There is a very wide variation in slope in DZ 1, with about 36%
of the area being flat to moderately flat (0º to 8º) in contrast to
42% of the area being steep or very steep (greater than 30º)
with the remaining area (22%) being distributed in wide range
of slope classes ranging from undulating to moderately steep.
The altitude varies from 1,770 to 4,170 masl. The mean annual
rainfall is 874 mm and, for over 90% of the area, annual rainfall
ranges from 700 mm to 1,000 mm.
Tepid to cool mid highlands (humid, sub-moist and moist) are

the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and account for 81% of
the zone. Other AEZs include cold to very cold, humid sub-afro-
alpine (18%). With regard to land cover, cultivated land
accounts for 76% of the area, followed by shrubland (11%) and
forest/woodland (10%) with grassland only covering 3%. The
major soil types are luvisols (69%) and nitosols (24%).
Cereal based highland mixed farming is the predominant

farming system in the zone accounting for 77% of the area
followed by enset based mixed farming (12%), cereal based
lowland mixed farming (9%) and commercial farming (2%). With
a bi-modal rainfall pattern, there are two cropping seasons:
main rains (Meher) and short rains (Belg). The major crops are
cereals, pulses and oilseeds which cover over 90% of the
cropped area. Other crops include vegetables, roots and enset.
The irrigated area is estimated at 1,745 hectares (0.6% of
cultivated area) mainly producing vegetable and root crops.
There are a total of 1.10 million TLUs in the zone (primarily

cattle and sheep/goats but also equines and poultry) with an
overall livestock density of 271 TLUs per km2. Cattle are kept for
draught power, milk, meat, hides/skins and manure, while
sheep/goats are mainly kept as a source of cash income. Equines
are used for transport and poultry are kept for both home
consumption and sale of eggs and meat. Overall, the supply and
consumption of livestock feed is in balance, but there are some
seasonal shortages between January and April.
Industries within the zone mainly comprise grain/flour mills, oil

extraction plants and other types of food processing including a
malt factory. Other industries comprise the manufacture of
furniture, timber, textile, leather and non-mineral products as

well as metal fabrication and quarrying. The main urban centre
located in the zone is Asela.
With regard to public infrastructure and services, 34% of the

overall population have access to potable water and 12% have
access to electricity. The number of health workers per 1,000
people is about 0.45 and the school enrolment rate is 56% with
a student-to-teacher ratio of 60:1. The road density is estimated
at 144 km of roads per 1,000 km2.
6.3.3 Zone 2: North Central Lowland Zone

The North Central Lowland Zone comprises 8 weredas in
Oromiya Region, namely: Ziway Dugda, Adami Tulu, Kondaltiti,
Seden Sodo, Arsi Negele, Shala, Shashemene and Siraro. The
zone has a total area of 7,521 km 2 with an estimated population
of 1,180,561 (i.e. 157 people per km 2) comprising 84% rural and
16% urban. The main ethnic groups are Oromo (80%) and
Amhara (7%).

Over 20 large commercial companies (state and private) manage
the remaining 10% of farmland and have an average size of
2,680 hectares.
With regard to topography, 84% of the area is either flat to

moderately flat (0º to 8º) while a further 9% is undulating to
moderately steep (8º to 15º) and the remaining 7% ranges from
moderately steep to steep (greater than 15º). The altitude
ranges from 1,510 to 3,605 masl and, for over 80% of the area,
annual rainfall varies from 700 mm to 1,000 mm with a mean
annual rainfall of 805 mm.
Tepid to cool mid highlands (sub-humid, humid, sub-moist and

moist) are the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and account
for 56% of the zone. Other AEZs include water bodies and hot to
warm sub-humid lowlands. With regard to land cover, cultivated
land accounts for 47% of the area, followed by
forestry/woodland (17%), water bodies (16%) and shrub land

(12%) with grassland covering only 3%. The major soil types are
andosols (29%), luvisols (22%) and solonetz (13%).
Cereal based lowland mixed farming is the predominant farming

system in the zone accounting for 64% of the area followed by
commercial farming (15%) and cereal based highland mixed
farming (4%). The main crops are cereals, pulses and oilseeds
which cover 95% of the cropped area. Other crops include
vegetables, roots and enset. The irrigated area is estimated at
3,228 hectares (1.1% of cultivated area) mainly producing
vegetable, root and cereal crops.

cattle but also sheep/goats, equines and poultry) with an overall
livestock density of 132 TLU per km 2. Cattle are kept for
draught power, milk, meat, hides/skins and manure. Sheep/goats
are mainly kept as a source of cash income, equines are used for
transport, and poultry are kept for both home consumption and
sale of eggs and meat. Overall, the supply and consumption of
livestock feed is in balance, but there are often seasonal
shortages between January and August.
Industries within the zone mainly comprise grain/flour mills and

other types of food processing. Other industries include
manufacture of furniture, timber, textile, leather and non-
mineral products as well as metal fabrication and quarrying. The
main urban centres located in the zone are Shashemene, Arsi
Negele and Meki.

at 120 km of road per 1,000 km2.
6.3.4 Zone 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone

The North West Mixed Farming Zone comprises 25 weredas in
SNNP Region, namely: Alaba, Boreda, Akilina, Ezha, Gumer,
Kokir Gedbano, Mareko, Meskan, Sodo, Limo, Misha, Shashego,
Angacha, Badawacho, Kedida Gamela, Alicho Woriro, Azernetna,
Dalocha, Lanfero, Sankura, Silti, Damot Gale, Damot Weyede,

Humbo and Sodo Zuria. The zone has a total area of 8,947 km 2
with an estimated population of 2,860,644 (i.e. 320 people per
km2) comprising 86% rural and 14% urban. The main ethnic
groups are Silti (29%), Wolayita (27%), Hadiya (13%) and
Kembata (13%).

About 20 large commercial companies (state and private)
manage the remaining 6% of farmland and have an average size
of 2,760 hectares.

moderately steep (8º to 15º) and the remaining 13% ranges
from moderately steep to very steep (greater than 15º). The
altitude ranges from 1,175 to 3,470 masl and, for over 81% of
the area, annual rainfall varies from 800 mm to 1,200 mm with a
mean annual rainfall of 1,087 mm.
Tepid to cool mid highlands (sub-humid, sub-moist and moist)

are the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and account for 79%
of the zone. Other AEZs include hot to warm lowlands (sub-
humid and sub-moist) covering a further 19%. With regard to
land cover, cultivated land accounts for 70% of the area,
followed by shrub land (16%) and forestry/woodland (4%) with
grassland covering less than 3%. The major soil types are
luvisols (39%), cambisols (19%), vertisols (15%) and nitosols
(9%).
Cereal based lowland mixed farming and enset based mixed

farming are the predominant farming systems in the zone
accounting for 44% and 43% of the area respectively. Other
farming systems include cereal based highland mixed farming
(6%) and commercial farming (5%). Cereals and pulses cover
73% of the cropped area, while enset, vegetables and roots
account for a further 21% of the cropped area. Other crops
include coffee, chat, fruit and oilseeds. The irrigated area is

estimated at 2,460 hectares (0.4% of cultivated area) mainly
producing vegetable and root crops.

livestock density of 228 TLU per km 2. Cattle are kept for
draught power, milk, meat, hides/skins and manure, while
sheep/goats are mainly kept as a source of cash income. Equines
are used for transport and poultry are kept for both home
consumption and sale of eggs and meat. Overall, the supply and
consumption of livestock feed is in balance, but there are some
seasonal shortages between January and April.

main urban centres located in the zone are Sodo, Hossaina and
Butajira.

6.3.5 Zone 4: Eastern Enset and Coffee Zone

The Eastern Enset and Coffee Zone comprises 11 weredas in
SNNP Region, namely: Bule, Kochere, Wenago, Yirga Chefe,
Aleta Wendo, Arbe Gona, Awasa Zuria, Dale, Dara, Hulla and
Shebedino. The zone has a total area of 4,580 km 2 with an
estimated population of 2,971,024 (i.e. 613 people per km2)
comprising 88% rural and 12% urban. The main ethnic groups
are Sidama (66%), Gedeo (21%), Oromo (5%) and Amhara (5%).


About 2 large commercial companies manage the remaining 1%
of farmland and have an average size of 2,170 hectares.
With regard to topography, there is a very wide variation in

slope with about 50% of the area being flat to moderately flat
(0º to 8º) in contrast to 26% of the area being moderately steep
to very steep (greater than 15º) with the remaining area (24%)
being undulating to moderately steep (8º to 15º). The altitude
ranges from 1,175 to 3,195 masl. and, for over 81% of the area,
annual rainfall varies from 1,000 mm to 1,500 mm with a mean
annual rainfall of 1,247 mm.
Tepid to cool mid highlands (sub-humid, humid and moist) are

the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and account for 65% of
the zone. Other AEZs include hot to warm lowlands (sub-humid,
sub-moist and moist) covering a further 32%. With regard to
land cover, cultivated land accounts for 69% of the area,
followed by shrub land (14%) and grassland (9%) with
forestry/woodland covering less than 2%. The major soil types
are luvisols (82%), cambisols (7%) and fluvisols (3%).
Enset/coffee based mixed farming is the predominant farming

systems in the zone accounting for 70% of the area. Other
farming systems include cereal based lowland mixed farming
(21%), pastoral/agro-pastoral (5%) and commercial farming
(2%). Enset, coffee and chat cover 59% of the cropped area,
while cereals and pulses account for a further 31% of the
cropped area. Other crops include vegetables, roots and fruit.
The irrigated area is estimated at 2,530 hectares (0.7% of
cultivated area) producing vegetable and root crops.

livestock density of 251 TLU per km 2. Cattle are kept for milk,
meat, hides/skins and manure, while sheep/goats are mainly
kept as a source of cash income. Equines are used for transport
and poultry are kept for both home consumption and sale of
eggs and meat. The supply of dry matter is inadequate to meet
demand, so the livestock feed balance within the zone is in
deficit. The critical period of feed shortage occurs between
November and April.

Industries within the zone mainly comprise grain/flour mills,
coffee processing and other types of food processing. Other
industries include manufacture of furniture, timber, textile,
leather and non-mineral products as well as metal fabrication
and quarrying. The main urban centres located in the zone are
Awasa, Dila and Yirga Alem

6.3.6 Zone 5: Eastern Mixed Farming Zone

The Eastern Mixed Farming Zone comprises 3 weredas in
Oromiya Region, namely: Abaya, Bule Hora and Gelana. The
zone has a total area of 3,492 km 2 with an estimated population
of 347,745 (i.e. 100 people per km 2) comprising 99% rural and
1% urban. The main ethnic groups are Oromo (74%) and Gedeo
(25%).
The economy is dominated by the agriculture which accounts for

(8%). Agriculture also employs 76% of the population with

moderately steep (8º to 15º) and the remaining 22% ranges
from moderately steep to steep (greater than 15º). The altitude
varies from 1,175 to 2,385 masl. and, for 84% of the area,
annual rainfall ranges from 800 mm to 1,200 mm with a mean
Hot to warm low to mid highland (sub-humid, humid, sub-moist

and moist) are the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and
account for 81% of the zone. Other AEZs include water bodies
and tepid to cool moist mid highlands. With regard to land cover,
shrub land accounts for 62% of the area, followed by water
bodies (19%), cultivated land (10%) and grassland (6%). The

major soil types are nitosols (44%), luvisols (20%), vertisols
(13%) and fluvisols (9%).
Cereal based lowland mixed farming is the predominant farming

system in the zone accounting for 45% of the cropped area.
Cereal based highland mixed farming and enset based mixed
farming and are also important with 26% and 18% of the total
cropped area respectively. The main crops are cereals, pulses,
enset, coffee and chat which cover 91% of the cropped area.
Other crops include vegetables, roots and fruit.

overall livestock density of 132 TLU per km 2. Cattle are kept for
milk, meat and hides/skins while sheep/goats are mainly kept as
a source of cash income. Equines are used for transport and
poultry are kept for both home consumption and sale of eggs
and meat.
Rural industries within the zone mainly comprise grain/flour

mills and other types of food processing. Other industries
include manufacture of furniture, timber, textile, leather
products as well as metal fabrication. The main urban centre is
Hagere Mariyam which is location just outside the Basin.

overall population have access to potable water but 0% have
6.3.7 Zone 6: Southern Mixed Faming Zone

The Southern Mixed Farming Zone comprises 14 weredas in
SNNP Regional State, namely: Amaro, Burji, Dirashe, Arba
Minch Zuria, Bonke, Chencha, Dara Mola, Dita, Gofa Zuria,
Kemba, Mirab Abaya, Uba Debretsehay, Zala and Konso. The
zone has a total area of 12,607 km2 with an estimated
population of 1,368,133 (i.e. 109 people per km 2) comprising
90% rural and 10% urban. The main ethnic groups are Gamo
(49%), Konso (15%) and Koyera (11%).

About 19 large commercial companies (state and private)
manage the remaining 12% of farmland and have an average
size of 2,670 hectares.

is undulating to moderately steep (8º to 15º). The altitude
ranges from 555 to 3,530 masl and, for 90% of the area, annual
rainfall varies widely from 700 mm to 1,500 mm with a mean
Hot to warm lowlands (sub-humid, humid, sub-moist and moist)

are the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and account for 66%
of the zone. Other AEZs include tepid to cool sub-humid mid
highlands (18%) and cold to very cold sub-afro-alpine (7%). With
regard to land cover, shrub land accounts for 57% of the area,
followed by cultivated land (20%), forestry/woodland (16%) and
water body (6%) and with grassland covering only 1%. The
major soil types are cambisols (36%), nitosols (20%), luvisols
(17%) and fluvisols (14%).
Enset based mixed farming and cereal based lowland mixed

farming are the predominant farming systems in the zone,
accounting for 45% and 42% of the area respectively, while
large scale commercial farming covers a further 4%. The main
crops are cereals, pulses, roots and enset with 93% of the
cropped area. Other crops include oilseeds, vegetables, fruit,
coffee and chat. The irrigated area is estimated at 12,480
hectares (5% of cultivated area) mainly producing vegetable and
fruit crops.

overall livestock density of 84 TLU per km 2. Cattle are kept for
milk, meat and hides/skins, while sheep/goats are mainly kept as

a source of cash income. Equines are used for transport and
poultry are kept for both home consumption and sale of eggs
and meat.

main urban centres located in the zone are Arba Minch, Gidole
and Chencha.

overall population have access to potable water, but only 3%
have access to electricity. The number of health workers per
1,000 people is about 0.55 and the school enrolment rate is 63%
with a student-to-teacher ratio of 60:1. The road density is
estimated at 75 km of road per 1,000 km2.
6.3.8 Zone 7: Pastoral Zone: SNNPRS

The SNNPRS Pastoral Zone comprises 4 weredas in SNNP
Region State, namely: Bako Gazer, Bena Tsemay, Gelila and
Hamer. The zone has a total area of 5,134 km 2 with an estimated
population of 170,230 (i.e. 33 people per km2) comprising 93%
rural and 7% urban. The main ethnic groups are Ari (55%), Mali
(17%), Hamer (16%) and Amhara (7%).


ranges from 485 to 3,375 masl and annual rainfall varies from
450 mm to 800 mm for 49% of the zone and from 800 to 1,300
for 51% of zone with a mean annual rainfall is 874 mm.

Hot to warm humid lowlands (62%) and hot to warm semi-arid
lowlands (33%) are the main agro-ecological zones (AEZs). With
regard to land cover, shrub land accounts for 58% of the area,
followed by forestry/woodland (24%), grassland (8%), cultivated
land (5%) and water bodies (6%). The major soil types are
cambisols (45%), arenosols (20%), fluvisols (10%), leptosols
(8%) and luvisols (7%).
Pastoralism and agro-pastoralism (81%) are the predominant

farming systems in the zone, followed by cereal based lowland
mixed farming (14%). The main crops are cereals and pulses
which cover 72% of the cropped area. Other crops include
enset, vegetables, roots, fruit, coffee and chat. The irrigated
area is estimated at 100 hectares (0.4% of cultivated area)
mainly producing vegetable and fruit crops.

cattle and sheep/goats but also equines) with an overall
livestock density of 97 TLU per km 2. Cattle and sheep/goats are
kept for milk and as a source of cash income. Equines are used
for transport. The overall supply of dry matter is sufficient so
the livestock feed balance is in surplus.

manufacture of furniture, timber, textile and leather products as
well as metal fabrication. The main urban centre is Jinka which
is located just outside the Basin. Urban centres within the zone
include Gazer and Tolter.

overall population have access to potable water, but only 2%
have access to electricity. The number of health workers per
1,000 people is about 0.22 and the school enrolment rate is 47%
with a student-to-teacher ratio of 80:1. The road density is
estimated at 85 km of road per 1,000 km2.
6.3.9 Zone 8: Pastoral Zone: Oromiya Regional State

The Oromiya Pastoral Zone comprises 3 weredas in Oromiya
Region, namely: Dugda Dawa, Teltele and Yabelo. The zone has
a total area of 5,578 km2 with an estimated population of 41,741

(i.e. 7 people per km2) comprising 88% rural and 12% urban.
The main ethnic groups are Oromo (69%) and Konso (30%).


ranges from 485 to 2,365 masl and annual rainfall varies from
450 mm to 800 mm for 96% of the zone and from 800 to 1,000
for 4% of the zone with a mean annual rainfall is 615 mm.
Hot to warm semi-arid lowlands (63%) and hot to warm humid

and moist lowlands (26%) are the main agro-ecological zones
(AEZs). With regard to land cover, shrub land accounts for 75%
of the area, followed by grassland (7%), cultivated land (7%),
woodland (5%) and water bodies (6%). The major soil types are
cambisols (28%), fluvisols (23%), nitosols (12%), luvisols (12%),
solonchaks (9%) and vertisols (7%).
Pastoralism and agro-pastoralism (81%) are the predominant
farming systems in the zone followed by enset based mixed
farming (10%).

cattle and goats but also equines and a few camels) with an
overall livestock density of 32 TLU per km2. Cattle and
sheep/goats are kept for milk and as a source of cash income.
Equines are used for transport. The overall supply of dry matter
is adequate, so the livestock feed balance within the zone is in
surplus.

manufacture of furniture, timber, textile and leather products as
well as metal fabrication. The main urban centre is Yabelo (pop.

15,500) which is located outside the zone. The urban centre
within the zone is Teltele (pop. 5,000).

overall population have access to potable water, but 0% have

7 MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS
7.1 Introduction
The objectives of the Master Plan analysis are to:
 prepare an “economic resource optimisation and allocation

model” (EROAM) which allocates land and water resources
to the principal RVLB natural resources activities of
cropping, livestock, fisheries, apiculture and forestry; this in
order to maximise value added in the natural resources
sector
 prepare a “rest of the economy model” (ROE) which models
the response of other sectors (industry, services, utilities etc)
to an optimal use of land and water in the RVLB
 inform the master planning process with baseline
information, and to model the effects of different scenarios
and strategies by geographical area and time to assist in the
preparation of a Master Plan for RVLB development.
The models do not produce the Master Plan, but the model
output using the scenarios, strategies and objectives adopted for
the Master Plan illustrates the impacts of the Plan.
The basic principle of the modelling was to use established

economic accounting procedures and the concepts of gross
domestic product, gross and net value of production and returns
to labour as a framework to evaluate Master Plan impacts. This
work was started in Phase 1, and a set of economic accounts for
the RVLB was produced. The concept was extended in the Phase
2 Master Plan studies to preparing projections of the Basin
economic accounts under different scenarios and strategies.
During the planning process, a set of scenarios and strategies
were chosen which the Consultants believe will lead each
Development Zone (DZ) in the RVLB along a feasible
development path over the 30 year planning period.
The data behind the models is voluminous, and covers all

economic sectors in RVLB. Agricultural data was available from

Master Plan_Volume 1_Master Plan _3107 245
official wereda statistics from EASE 2001, and this was updated
by the Consultants during Phase 1. Data on other sectors was
collected from a very wide variety of sources, but special
mention should be made of the CSA periodic sector surveys.
These are of enormous value because they are designed to
provide data for national economic accounting. As such they
enumerate specifically production, employment, intermediate
costs etc; the results are thus directly compatible with the
modelling process outlined above. All the data used in the
modelling has been compiled in an Access database, and is
extracted as required by queries and import data links to the
models. The models can therefore be updated relatively easily.
The Master Plan analysis is not a one-off exercise. The models

should be updated as new data becomes available, especially
more recent EASE sample surveys and the 2007 Population
Sample Survey. Better estimation methods are needed in several
areas, particularly population projections by DZ. Time series
data needs to be accumulated (MoFED is providing support to
the regional planning teams to prepare regional level accounts
but this is a long term process). With good time series data,
multivariate econometric models can be prepared, in place of
the partial analysis optimisation models used in this study.
The remainder of this chapter describes the analysis required

for four key areas of Master Plan modelling: population
projections, land availability, water resources availability and
demand, and the allocation of natural resources to economic
activities.
7.2 Population Projections
7.2.1 The Population Estimate based on CSA Projections

The present and projected total, urban and rural population data
from the RVLB Phase 1 demographic analysis (Phase 1 Report,
Part 2, Volume 4, Annex F, Population and Demographic
Characteristics) uses two projections, one for Oromiya weredas
and one for SNNPRS weredas. The total population is projected
to increase from 2005 base levels in five year periods as shown
in Table 7.1, which shows that a faster rate of population growth
is expected in Oromiya than in SNNPRS.

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.27: Medium variant
CSA projection applied to weredas
Region 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oromiya 24% 49% 73% 100% 130% 164%
SNNPR
S 20% 42% 67% 93% 123% 155%
Source: Population Projection by woreda2.xls
Having established that a relatively simple projection was used,

it was possible to disaggregate it into urban and rural annual
percentage increases, as shown in Table 7.2, for Oromiya,
SNNPRS and the Basin as a whole.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.28: Projected annual

rates of population growth: median variant
Oromiya SNNPRS Whole basin
Fro
To Tot Rur Urb Tot Rur Urb Tot Rur Urb
m
al al an al al an al al an
200 201 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.6
5 0 % % 6.3% % % 5.7% % % 5.9%
201 201 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.2
0 5 % % 5.7% % % 5.5% % % 5.6%
201 202 3.1 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8
5 0 % % 5.1% % % 5.1% % % 5.1%
202 202 2.8 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.6
0 5 % % 4.8% % % 5.0% % % 4.9%
202 203 2.9 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.4
5 0 % % 4.8% % % 4.9% % % 4.8%
203 203 2.8 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.3
0 5 % % 4.8% % % 4.7% % % 4.7%
200 203 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.8 5.2

5 5 % % 5.3% % % 5.1% % % 5.2%
Note: Calculated by 5 Year Periods, and overall 2005-2035
Rates of growth for the low and high variants can be back-
calculated from rural and urban totals given in the Phase 1
report. We have chosen to use the low variant as the base case
in Master Plan modelling because we have been led to

understand that the 2007 population sample survey is
identifying lower fertility increases than used in the above
projections. To use the median projection on an already
(possibly) inflated estimate of population numbers for 2005 may
lead to a serious overestimate by the end of the Master Plan
planning period.
7.2.2 Population Structure

Data from the RVLB Phase 1 demographic analysis was used to
obtain the sex and age structure anticipated for the medium
variant CSA projection. The data as shown in Table 7.3 refers to
the RVLB as whole, and are sufficient to characterise sex and
age structures in the DZs. This information is used for
identifying the total labour force, rural and urban.
7.2.3 Disaggregating the CSA Projection

The percentage growth rates shown in Table 7.1 and Table 7.2
are the official CSA figures. A discussion on how they are
calculated is given in Section 3.2. They are based on estimates
of birth and migration rates, both of which have a strong
relationship with the rate of growth of the economy. Since
EROAM attempts to predict economic growth under defined
scenarios, it follows that projected population could, in theory,
change, depending on the scenario chosen. Population is
therefore a variable, not a given. Furthermore, the data on
which the population estimate is based is old – the last census
was in 1994 and reporting of the 2007 population sample survey
is underway. Therefore the projection is at the limit of its
accuracy; however, 2007 census data and revised projections
are unlikely to be available for several months. And finally,
EROAM requires the use of variable time periods for flexible
planning and reporting.

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.29: Sex and age structure of the population of the
RVLB
Male / Population 0-4 Population 5-7 Population 7-14 Population 15+
female years years years years
ratio Urba Rural Basi Urba Rural Basi Urba Rural Basi Urba Rural Basin
n n n n n n n
15.52 15.91 15.87 8.74 8.88 8.86 21.57 21.64 21.63 54.16 53.57 53.64
0.499 % % % % % % % % % % % %
20.72 20.42 20.46 7.56 7.81 7.77 19.13 19.50 19.45 52.59 52.27 52.32
0.500 % % % % % % % % % % % %
18.92 18.72 18.75 10.44 10.31 10.33 20.37 20.58 20.54 50.27 50.39 50.37
0.500 % % % % % % % % % % % %
17.06 17.01 17.02 9.69 9.61 9.62 23.83 23.55 23.59 49.42 49.84 49.77
0.501 % % % % % % % % % % % %
15.99 16.00 16.00 8.79 8.79 8.79 22.29 22.11 22.14 52.92 53.11 53.07
0.501 % % % % % % % % % % % %
15.61 15.56 15.57 8.41 8.41 8.41 20.56 20.54 20.54 55.42 55.49 55.47
0.502 % % % % % % % % % % % %
14.99 14.91 14.93 8.30 8.27 8.28 19.77 19.79 19.79 56.93 57.03 57.01
0.502 % % % % % % % % % % % %

For all three reasons, a means of manipulating the CSA data is
required. The way the problem was solved is described in detail
in Annex C Section 3.2.1 of this report, and it is now possible to
manipulate urban and rural growth rates by DZ. Considering the
relative contributions of migration and fertility to population
growth, it must be assumed that overall about 50% of the
predicted urban growth is attributable to intra-basin (i.e. within
RVLB) rural to urban migration. This is so because urban
fertility rates may be assumed to be lower and to fall more
rapidly than rural. In order to drive urban fertility down to 25%
less than the level of rural fertility throughout the planning
period, rural to urban migration must account for nearly 58% of
urban growth by 2035. If the CSA low variant projection is a
reasonable estimate, this implies that over 1 million rural people
will move from the countryside to the towns during the period
2025-2035, and in 2035 20% of urban inhabitants will have
arrived in the towns during the preceding ten years. The Basin
population growth rates under these assumptions are shown in
Table 7.4.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.30: Expected fertility and

migration growth rates (low CSA projection)
Planni RVLB Extern Net Urba Extern Net Rural
ng Rural : al net emigrati n al net emigrati fertili
period urban inward on from fertili inward on from ty
migran migrati urban ty migrati rural
ts on to on to
urban rural
2005-
2008 7.98% 0.00% 0.00% 7.98% 0.00% 0.00% 7.50%
2009 2.31% 0.00% 0.00% 2.28% 0.00% 0.00% 2.35%
2010- 15.52 20.25
2015 16.66% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.00% 0.00% %
2016- 14.02 15.05
2020 15.83% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.00% 0.00% %
2021- 12.09 13.08
2025 14.37% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.00% 0.00% %
2026- 22.66 24.03
2035 30.79% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.00% 0.00% %
Source: Population projections by variable time periods.xls
Total RVLB: all DZs

It became apparent during the modelling process that the
unadjusted CSA projections would not be congruent with the
locations of economic activity predicted by the modelling. For
example, about 37% of land suitable for rain fed cropping but
presently unused in the RVLB is estimated to be in DZ 6, which
according to the CSA projection has only 14% of the rural
population at both the beginning and the end of the planning
period. To bring this additional land into cultivation, a relative
increase in the rural population is required. Further, failing to
adjust population numbers in DZ 4 leads to massive dis-
occupancy of both the urban and rural workforces , since the
economy of this DZ cannot develop fast enough to absorb the
incremental labour. It became necessary to model a migration
southwards from DZ 3 and 4 to meet rural and urban labour
demands created by expansion into new lands. The goal was to
achieve (as nearly as possible) a 100% labour force occupancy
in both the rural and urban sectors in all DZs, while preserving
the total number of urban and rural populations predicted by
CSA for RVLB. The simple model developed works by
transferring half of the incremental rural and urban population
in each time period from DZ 3 and DZ 4 to DZ 5, 6, 7, and 8. The
results are shown in Table 7.5.
The conclusion is that the population balance in RVLB is and will

be extremely fluid, and sensitive to changes in economic
opportunities in the rural and urban economies. It will be useful
and important to review the population data when the results of
the 2007 sample survey are available. It should also be borne in
mind that any national level projections are likely to be
inaccurate at Basin level.

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.31: Re-estimated DZ rural and urban population by DZ: based
on CSA low variant
Re- Re- Change Change Increase Rural Rural Increase
estimated estimated due to due to due to immigra emigrati due to
rural urban rural to urban to urban tion to on to rural
populatio population urban urban fertility rural rural fertility
n migratio migratio areas in areas in
n n other other
DZs DZs
Baseline
2005 DZ1 1,100,651 185,734 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ2 1,231,771 224,713 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ3 3,583,992 340,195 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ4 3,064,905 340,196 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ5 672,816 601 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ6 1,665,066 181,774 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ7 512,793 33,838 0 0 0 0 0 0
DZ8 421,516 24,312 0 0 0 0 0 0
Period 1 DZ1 1,176,890 217,879 16,072 0 16,072 0 0 92,312

DZ2 1,317,092 263,604 19,445 0 19,445 0 0 104,767
DZ3 3,700,679 366,184 25,989 -25,989 25,989 0 116,687 259,363
DZ4 3,164,691 366,185 25,989 -25,989 25,989 0 99,787 225,562
DZ5 765,603 849 52 144 52 46,182 0 46,656
DZ6 1,882,593 248,610 14,002 38,832 14,002 108,269 0 123,260
DZ7 579,272 46,177 2,585 7,169 2,585 33,089 0 35,976
DZ8 479,646 34,354 2,104 5,834 2,104 28,933 0 31,301
Period 2 DZ1 1,202,303 228,594 5,385 0 5,330 0 0 30,798

DZ2 1,345,533 276,568 6,515 0 6,449 0 0 34,955

n n other other
DZs DZs
DZ3 3,739,575 374,847 8,707 -8,663 8,619 0 38,896 86,498
DZ4 3,197,953 374,848 8,707 -8,663 8,619 0 33,262 75,231
DZ5 796,532 931 17 48 17 15,394 0 15,552
DZ6 1,955,102 270,889 4,691 12,944 4,644 36,090 0 41,110
DZ7 601,432 50,290 866 2,390 857 11,030 0 11,996
DZ8 499,023 37,702 705 1,945 698 9,644 0 10,437
Period 3 DZ1 1,416,662 308,337 41,287 0 38,456 0 0 255,646

DZ2 1,585,428 373,046 49,952 0 46,527 0 0 289,847
DZ3 4,097,924 437,856 65,246 -63,009 60,772 0 358,349 781,945
DZ4 3,504,401 437,857 65,246 -63,009 60,772 0 306,448 678,142
DZ5 1,062,084 1,545 134 356 124 134,517 0 131,169
DZ6 2,627,755 432,826 35,210 93,931 32,796 340,736 0 367,127
DZ7 809,246 80,137 6,490 17,313 6,045 105,269 0 109,034
DZ8 665,391 62,557 5,404 14,417 5,034 84,274 0 87,497
Period 4 DZ1 1,573,475 403,785 50,629 0 44,819 0 0 207,442

DZ2 1,760,922 488,525 61,254 0 54,225 0 0 236,748
DZ3 4,413,476 516,217 83,130 -78,360 73,591 0 315,552 714,233
DZ4 3,774,250 516,218 83,130 -78,361 73,591 0 269,849 622,828
DZ5 1,263,295 2,283 164 429 145 105,353 0 96,022
DZ6 3,228,991 634,427 44,740 117,253 39,607 314,803 0 331,172
DZ7 998,785 117,396 8,269 21,670 7,320 99,242 0 98,566
DZ8 791,448 92,420 6,627 17,368 5,867 66,003 0 66,682

n n other other
DZs DZs
Period 5 DZ1 1,709,540 509,424 57,374 0 48,265 0 0 193,439

DZ2 1,913,197 616,334 69,414 0 58,394 0 0 221,689
DZ3 4,721,375 608,355 100,083 -92,138 84,194 0 307,899 715,881
DZ4 4,037,555 608,357 100,083 -92,139 84,194 0 263,304 626,692
DZ5 1,441,533 3,104 186 480 156 95,062 0 83,361
DZ6 3,821,261 871,854 53,644 138,655 45,128 315,885 0 330,030
DZ7 1,187,592 161,456 9,955 25,731 8,374 100,700 0 98,062
DZ8 903,113 125,659 7,510 19,412 6,318 59,556 0 59,619
Period 6 DZ1 1,963,860 777,708 152,512 0 115,773 0 0 406,831

DZ2 2,197,813 940,921 184,518 0 140,069 0 0 469,135
1,442,58
DZ3 5,308,456 844,450 268,426 -236,095 203,764 0 587,081 7
1,272,52
DZ4 4,539,605 844,452 268,427 -236,096 203,765 0 502,051 9
DZ5 1,775,807 5,191 493 1,220 374 178,812 0 155,956
DZ6 4,952,383 1,480,380 143,792 355,580 109,154 605,066 0 669,848
DZ7 1,548,819 274,447 26,699 66,024 20,268 193,229 0 194,697
DZ8 1,112,535 210,144 19,963 49,367 15,154 112,025 0 117,360
Source: Population projections by variable time periods.xls

7.3 Land Resources and Land Use
7.3.1 Objectives and Methodology

The primary objective of the land resource assessment is the
assessment of land suitability for a number of land use types
through a process of land evaluation. The principal objective of
land evaluation is to select the optimal land use for a defined
land unit, taking into account both physical and socioeconomic
considerations, as well as the conservation of environmental
resources for sustainable use.
The methodology for the land suitability assessment is based on

the FAO Framework for Land Evaluation (1976), wherein
evaluation is the process of matching different environments
against possible land use options. Land suitability is then
defined as the fitness of a specific area of land for a specified
kind of land use under a stated system of management. Simply,
it is the extent to which the land in question is able to support
the Land Use Type (LUT) being considered. If the LUT appears
profitable and sustainable, the land is deemed suitable for it.
Land evaluation and suitability are discussed in detail in Annex
B of this document.
7.3.2 Land Suitability Assessment

The land suitability assessment undertaken for the RVLB Master
Plan has been designed to assess the fitness of a given area of
land for a defined use determined by rating the land qualities of
each soil mapping unit (incorporating climatic and slope data)
against the requirements of specific land use types.
In a practical sense, land suitability assessment is a way of

systematically establishing good, moderate and poor quality
land for a specified use. The assessment is made by matching
the site and soil characteristics against the requirements of the
proposed land use. Good land has a favourable combination of
characteristics, poor land a less favourable combination. Land
may have characteristics that render it unsuitable for the
intended use (limiting conditions) i.e., for each characteristic,
there is a minimum requirement or value to separate suitable
from not suitable land.

An example of using the most limiting condition as a means of
determining land suitability is that it is of little use having
excellent conditions with respect to moisture availability,
temperature regime, etc. if, for example, rooting conditions are
limited by a shallow soil depth. The advantage of the procedure
of limiting conditions is its simplicity, which tends toward
caution.
There are two suitability orders: Suitable (S) and Not Suitable
(N). The suitable order has been subdivided into three classes:
highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2) and marginally
suitable (S3) but the Not Suitable order has not been
subdivided.
The land suitability classes S1 to S3 indicate relative suitability,

reflecting decreasing benefits relative to increasing
requirements for continued production; either a greater cost is
required to achieve the same yield or yields will be lower under
the same costs. Whether it be rainfed or irrigated arable
agriculture, forestry, improved grazing or pertaining to
particular crops, it is expected to yield benefits without risk of
damage to the land resources.
In theory the boundaries between suitability classes are subject

to revision as new technologies develop and political and social
changes occur. In practice they tend not to be revised.
The land use types evaluated were:
 Smallholder Rainfed Agriculture

 Large-scale Mechanised Rainfed Agriculture
 Large-scale Irrigated Agriculture
 Production Forestry
 Rangeland
Land qualities used in the land suitability assessment included

information from the soil mapping units such as texture (for
moisture availability and retention), drainage class (for oxygen
availability), nutrient status, soil depth (for soil erodibility) and
the presence or absence of salinity and/or sodicity. Agro-climatic
data derived from the agro-ecological zones included length of
growing period (for moisture availability and retention); rainfall,

altitude and slope data (for soil erodibility) were derived from
the digital elevation model. Results of the land suitability
evaluation are given in Table 7.6.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.32: Land suitability in

the RVLB
Highly
Moderately Marginally Not
suitable
suitable (S2) suitable (S3) suitable (N)
(S1)
Land Area Area
Area Area
Use (km2 % % % (km2 %
(km2) (km2)
Type ) )
Smallhol
1,45 11,8
der 2.7 18,947 35.7 18,158 34.2 22.3
7 07
Rainfed
Mechani
1,28 26,4
sed 2.4 8,732 16.5 13,867 26.1 49.9
6 83
Rainfed
Large-
26,9
scale 289 0.5 1,437 2.7 21,719 40.9 50.7
23
Irrigated
Producti
1,63 24,8
on 3.1 19,850 37.4 4,023 7.6 46.8
9 56
Forestry
Rangela 30,6
19,726 37.2 57.8
nd 43
This information has been mapped, and incorporated into both

the land resource model and the development zones of the
master plan.
7.3.3 Soil and Water Conservation

The soil and water conservation aspect of the land resource
model and master planning relates partly to the costs of the soil
and water interventions that will be required to sustain and
increase agricultural production during the course of the Master
Plan.
The costing of soil and water conservation interventions has

been undertaken with reference to previous studies, and by
identifying areas of current cultivation by slope classes which

are the most likely to require soil and water conservation
interventions in the future.
The ‘Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transitions

(MERET) project has estimated overall costs for soil and water
conservation at ETB 2,900 (USD 300)/ha, while for the Upper
Kesem Watershed Management project (part of the Awash Basin
study) estimated costs ranged from ETB 1,200 (USD 126)/ha for
gently rolling uplands to an average ETB 6,078 (USD 640)/ha for
steep gorge areas, with steeper areas costing an estimated ETB
14,232 (USD 1,498)/ha. The Eastern Nile Technical Regional
Office (ENTRO) study around Lake Tana indicated total overall
SWC costs of ETB 2,600 (USD 274)/ha; this figure conceals the
estimated cost range for the ENTRO work, which was between
ETB 2,100 (USD 221) and ETB 3,273 (USD 345)/ha, depending
on slope and land characteristics. The current study has
estimated average per hectare costs for Western Lake Ziway
and Lake Awasa sub-Basins at ETB 882/ha (USD 93/ha) and ETB
1,917/ha (USD 202/ha), respectively largely due to a higher
proportion of steeper land in the latter.
SWC costs are therefore directly related to slope - steep slopes

cost more to protect, since they require labour intensive
structural measures; meanwhile lesser slopes only require
agronomic interventions where most of the cost is in training
and some biological interventions. The Lake Tana study gave
costs by slope class as shown in Table 7.7.
These costs have been used to compute outline SWC costs for
the RVLB, by allocating costs to different slope categories on
cultivated land (assuming that this is where SWC interventions
will be targeted) and including a factor within these costs to
account for gully reshaping and stone checkdam construction.
The initial costs were computed by development zone; these
costs were then recalculated in three development zones (DZ3 -
Northwestern Mixed Farming, DZ4 - Eastern Enset & Coffee and
DZ5 - Eastern Mixed Farming) to account for areas with
perennial crops (comprising 23%, 73% and 33% of the zones
respectively). Costs will be appreciably lower for perennial
crops, as they do not require an annual cycle of land
cultivation/preparation when ground cover is removed along
with the associated soil-binding benefits of plant roots.

The total SWC cost estimate is 2.9 billion ETB or about USD 309
million, as shown in Table 7.7 below.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.33: Cost of soil

conservation by slope class
Slope class SWC SWC
costs costs
(ETB)/ USD/h
ha a
0-8% 599 63
8-15% 1,345 142
15-30% 2,849 300
30-60% 6,731 708
>60% 4,361 459
Gully reshaping 5,105 537
Stone checkdams
(cost/km) 17,280 1,819
Mean per micro- 2,600 274
watershed

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.34: Areas of cultivated land by slope class and calculation of SWC
costs
Area of cultivated land by slope category in each development zone. calculation of soil & water
conservation costs
Area (ha) DZ1 DZ2 DZ3 DZ4 DZ5 DZ6 DZ7 DZ8 RVLB
40,1 170,0 178,5 33,7 1,2 32,07 5,4 1,0
Slope 0-2% 31 61 17 35 89 2 36 32 462,274
97,0 153,1 223,8 79,2 3,4 39,44 10,4 8,2
Slope 2-5% 69 12 33 99 22 8 28 17 614,828
73,4 47,3 111,2 53,2 4,8 31,20 5,3 10,0
Slope 5-8% 16 99 70 68 52 7 73 37 336,821
Slope 8- 87,1 44,0 134,5 120,2 15,0 88,50 6,3 11,0
15% 49 72 37 25 45 5 21 24 506,879
Slope 15- 31,7 21,6 64,3 101,0 11,7 113,9 5,1 8,1
30% 34 77 29 94 44 18 24 82 357,802
Slope 30- 4,9 5,1 13,5 23,5 1,9 62,50 2,7 2,8
60% 20 04 62 95 65 2 45 21 117,215
Slope 1 16 52 4 3,38 6
>60% 99 8 1 93 33 8 0 41 4,903
334, 441, 726, 411, 38, 371, 35, 41,
Total 619 593 570 708 350 042 486 355 2,400,722
Total Cost (ETB) including perennial crop reduction (50% of total costs for intensive perennial &
annual cultivation (IPAC) land use) Cost/ha
8,828,8 37,413,3 37,155,3 5,742,4 266,2 7,055,9 1,195,8 227,1
Slope 0-2% 99 69 77 58 74 08 58 02 220
42,710,3 67,369,0 89,630,0 26,602,9 1,195,1 17,357,1 4,588,1 3,615,6
Slope 2-5% 94 85 16 71 42 64 16 24 440
48,454,2 31,283,6 63,339,9 24,138,6 2,553,8 20,596,8 3,545,8 6,624,4
Slope 5-8% 94 41 38 54 83 86 93 35 660
Slope 8- 130,287,6 65,887,3 166,040,5 107,031,7 18,446,1 132,315,3 9,450,2 16,481,5
15% 36 58 43 01 93 52 23 54 1,495
Slope 15- 100,279,6 68,499,6 164,154,3 173,410,0 31,725,5 359,982,2 16,191,9 25,854,1
30% 97 90 23 63 18 78 45 77 3,160
Slope 30- 36,756,0 38,125,0 85,934,6 93,578,1 13,201,1 466,890,1 20,508,6 21,076,1 7,470

60% 91 80 01 16 47 49 28 16
Slope 963,7 814,9 2,320,5 1,453,6 79,5 16,397,9 289,2
198,1
>60% 69 76 13 27 78 20 39 68 4,840
368,280, 309,393, 608,575, 431,957, 67,467, 1,020,595, 55,769, 74,077, ETB
Total 780 199 310 589 734 657 904 175 2,936,117,346
Total Cost (USD) including perennial crop
reduction Cost/ha
929,3 3,938,2 3,911,0 604,4 28,0 742,7 125,8 23,9
Slope 0-2% 58 49 92 69 29 27 80 05 23
4,495,8 7,091,4 9,434,7 2,800,3 125,8 1,827,0 482,9 380,5
Slope 2-5% 31 83 38 13 04 70 60 92 46
5,100,4 3,293,0 6,667,3 2,540,9 268,8 2,168,0 373,2 697,3
Slope 5-8% 52 15 62 11 30 93 52 09 69
Slope 8- 13,714,4 6,935,5 17,477,9 11,266,4 1,941,7 13,927,9 994,7 1,734,9
15% 88 11 52 95 04 32 60 00 157
Slope 15- 10,555,7 7,210,4 17,279,4 18,253,6 3,339,5 37,892,8 1,704,4 2,721,4
30% 58 94 02 91 28 71 15 92 333
Slope 30- 3,869,0 4,013,1 9,045,7 9,850,3 1,389,5 49,146,3 2,158,8 2,218,5
60% 62 66 47 28 94 31 03 39 786
Slope 101,4 85,7 244,2 153,0 8,3 1,726,0 30,4 20,8
>60% 49 87 65 13 77 97 46 60 509
38,766, 32,567, 64,060, 45,469, 7,101, 107,431, 5,870, 7,797, USD
Total 398 705 559 220 867 122 516 597 309,064,984

7.4 Water Resources
7.4.1 Introduction
The lakes of the RVLB are ‘terminal’ lakes in that they have no
surface water outflow. Water losses from the lakes are from
evaporation and through groundwater only and, as such, they
are fragile ecological systems. Described in water balance
terms, terminal lakes are ‘in balance’ under natural conditions
prior to water use by humans. In theoretical terms, any human
use brings a terminal lake into a negative balance in which the
lake is in decline. In practical terms, it is when the negative
balance becomes measurable and sustained that the health of
the lakes becomes particularly vulnerable to human use of
water.
Lake level observations made by the MoWR over the last 30 to

40 years show that all lakes in the RVLB are in some state of
decline, or at least in a precarious balance. Already there are
clear concerns as to the long term sustainability of these lakes
under current abstraction conditions. Any increases in the rate
of abstraction increases the rate of lake level decline. Careful
consideration must be given to all further abstraction from any
of the lakes or from the rivers that feed them.
This suggests that there is little scope in the RVLB for large
scale development of high water use subsectors. The case in
point is that of irrigation. Presently, irrigation poses the largest
water demands in the RVLB system; any significant increase in
irrigation demands will negatively affect the health of the lakes
and will be unsustainable. This is over and above the reduction
in Basin water resource availability and the consequent
competition with water demands from other sectors of the
economy.
Terminal lakes also have a fine chemical balance. Most are

alkaline, or saline or sodic because most water is lost through
evaporation, leaving behind chemical impurities. Reductions in
water volume through abstractions from the lakes directly or
from the feeding rivers tends to increase their chemical
concentrations, rendering them less usable to typical human
needs such as irrigation and domestic water supply.

The hydrological response of the RVLB lakes system is complex,
and a water balance model is required to study the sensitivity of
rivers and lakes to various climatic and human induced changes.
The assessment of water resources described below has been

based on annually renewable quantity, rather than on quality. As
noted earlier in this MP, water quality in many of the lakes
within RVLB limits their suitability for a range of economic
activities. However, the water quality in rivers, from which
annually renewable surface water resources are derived, is
generally adequate for most purposes.
7.4.2 Water Resources Modelling

The following is a summary of the existing water resources
situation and a discussion of the potential for future water
resources development in the RVLB. Annex A of this document,
Water Resources and Modelling, also details the water resources
modelling carried out for this Master Plan study, along with the
results obtained.
A water balance model using the WEAP software built for the
Master Plan study is used for this analysis. The water resources
models have been calibrated to observed river flows and lake
levels over a 30 year historical period from 1975 to 2004. This
30 year historical time series is then used as a surrogate for a
future time series in order to model the future response of the
surface water balance to increased abstractions that will occur
as the Basin develops.
It should be noted that the quality and quantity of observed

hydrological data for the RVLB are poor. There is a significant
amount of missing data within the records of all meteorological
and hydrological sites. Specific to flow records, many of the sites
are infrequently reviewed with regard to cross sections leading
to updated and improved rating curves. A good monitoring
programme is very important to good water management. This
project has made recommendations on new sites, improvements
to existing sites and improvements to the monitoring
programme.

The model examines the impact on the surface water resources
under several development scenarios. Special attention is given
to the RVLB lakes as these are good indicators of whether the
basin water resources remain in balance or not. In this
discussion emphasis is given to irrigation because of its high
water use compared with other sectors like industry and
domestic water consumption.
The population and the economy of the RVLB will grow through
this Master Plan period, putting greater pressure on the
availability of surface water resources. Future water use will
include increased domestic water consumption associated with
population growth in general, and especially urban growth as
people migrate to the towns and cities as employment
opportunities evolve. It will also include greater demands for
water for industrial use as industry grows. In addition there will
be increased demands for irrigation water, if the decision is
made to go forward with some of the irrigation projects already
planned.
The Master Plan proposes development strategies for each of

the 8 Development Zones (DZs) identified in the RVLB (these are
described in Section 6 above). Water use in each DZ increases
through time as the domestic and industrial demands increase
towards the year 2035. Changes in water demands for each of
the DZs are estimated using the Economic Resource
Optimisation and Allocation Model (EROAM) together with the
ROE (Rest of the Economy) model and entered into the water
resource model as future water supply demands (see Section 6
for a description of the DZs and Section 7.5 for a description of
the modelling).
As has been discussed above, water resources are the main

constraint to development and are already at or near their limit
of exploitation. The potential constraint of water availability to
development is examined by the water resource model. The
water resource model is also used to determine the changes in
surface water resources availability for each DZ, and to examine
impacts on the lakes in RVLB due to development plans.

7.4.3 Surface Water Availability
5,312 Mm3/year, calculated from total annual average river flow
into the lake systems under ‘natural’ conditions without human
abstractions. Table 7.9 below shows the breakdown by sub-
basin. This amounts to a current per capita water availability of
597 m3/annum, which is well below the threshold of ‘water
scarcity’ defined as 1000 m3 per person per annum. This will
decline to 232 m3 per person per annum by the end of the
Master Plan period because of population growth, which is a
situation of extreme water scarcity.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.35: Surface water

resources of the RVLB
Sub-basin Lake Total Total
system resource resource
(Mm3/year) (%)
Ziway- Ziway 755
Shala Abiyata 200
Langano 258
Shala 340
Total 1,553 29%
Awasa Total 143 3%
Abaya- Abaya 2,512
Chamo
Chamo 506
Total 3,018 57%
Chew Bahir Total 598 11%
RVLB 5,312
Total
7.4.4 Water Demand

EROAM and ROE outputs include estimates of water demand.
The following sources of water demand have been considered by
DZ and time:
 domestic potable water supply for urban (piped and

unprotected) and rural (piped, unpiped but protected and
unprotected) consumers, including water for livestock

 incremental irrigation from new schemes and on-farm
expansion
 incremental hydropower generation for new customers
connected to the grid
 incremental water demand for coffee processing
 incremental industrial water use for food processing and
other industrial production
 incremental water required for construction
 incremental water required for service activities
 incremental water required for health and education
services (hospitals, clinics and schools)
The units of activity (numbers of business units, numbers of

water consumers etc.) by DZ and time flow from the scenarios
and strategies proposed under the Master Plan are the source of
data for the EROAM and ROE models. EROAM optimises the
phasing in of new irrigation and changes in the tonnage of
coffee produced. ROE specifies the number of new water supply
and electricity connections as required by the Master Plan. The
number of new hospitals, clinics and schools required is
estimated as part of the Master Plan cost estimate. ROE also
estimates the tonnages of processed food products associated
with the changing demand for food, and the number of business
units required for new industry and services.
Water use per unit of economic activity was estimated as

follows. Per capita consumption of potable water was
straightforward, based on 10 litres per day per capita from
unprotected sources and 50 litres per capita per day from
(urban) piped systems. Use will grow depending on income and
price elasticity of demand, and factors are built in to ROE to
model this.
Water consumption for irrigation is accurately computed in the

water resources modelling with variables of crop type and crop
water coefficients, area, etc. Water consumption for hydropower
will take place outside RVLB as no specific hydropower
developments are being considered.
Water consumption for coffee washing was estimated by

adjusting the yield for cherry weight and assuming one hour at
0.2 m3 per sec (that is, 720 m3) for each ton of cherries washed.

Water requirements for food processing, construction and
services were obtained from the publication Guidelines for the
Assessment of Catchment Water Demand and Use (HR
Wallingford/DFID 2005), internet sources and consultants’
estimates.
The total (not incremental) water demand for both urban and
rural areas is given in Table 7.10. The total excludes coffee
washing which is not a final (consumptive) water use, as the
water used is returned to the environment; having been
contaminated in the process, however, it is returned as a
pollutant.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.36: Estimated water

demand in the RVLB (Mm3 per annum)
Planning year
Type of 200 200 201 202 202
water use 2005 8 9 5 0 5 2035
Industry:
food
processing
except 12.9 13.8 21.7 31.9 45.9
coffee 10.56 1 1 8 0 2 91.14
Coffee 51.8 52.3 52.5 54.9 57.4
washing 51.85 5 0 8 0 1 51.28
Industry:
other 2.99 2.69 2.65 2.56 2.58 2.63 2.74
Domestic 70.5 74.3 113. 148. 177. 249.8
water 63.14 4 7 45 44 72 6
Constructio
n 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.22 0.24 0.30
12.7 18.6 26.0
Services 5.38 7.05 7.67 5 1 2 46.11
Total
excluding
coffee
washing 82 93 99 151 202 253 391
Source: Water demand v2.xls

Water use for domestic, industrial and service use is shown
graphically by DZ in Figure 7.1. Clearly DZ3 and DZ4, which are
the DZs with greatest potential for industrial and account for a
large share, followed by DZ1, DZ2 and DZ6.
Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.11: Share of baseline

water use by DZ
Water use per capita figures are used together with predicted
urban population for each DZ to calculate the total urban water
demand through the Master Plan period. At each existing or new
urban centre (i.e. water supply site) the activity level within the
water resource model is increased incrementally to represent
future urban water demands.
In the modelling all water demands for urban areas are assumed
to be supplied by surface water resources (with all rural
supplies being met by groundwater). This may be a
simplification but represents the current situation approximately
and also provides a conservative assessment of water
availability from surface resources.
7.4.5 Assessment of Future Irrigation Development Potential

The following is a synopsis of the impact on the surface water
resources of the RVLB of the currently planned irrigation
development. A full discussion on the water resources modelling

of potential future irrigation is given in Annex A, Water
Resources and Modelling.
As has been described at the beginning of Section 7.4, the lakes

of the RVLB, specifically their water levels, are a good indicator
of whether the water resources and the water use of the basin
are in balance. This is important as a positive or neutral balance
proves sustainability. Currently, there is evidence in the
observed records that the lakes are already in a state of
negative balance (meaning that lake levels are declining). The
degree or severity of the imbalance varies among the lakes, with
some lakes being particularly affected. It should be noted here
that there is no evidence that the negative balances are a
meteorological phenomenon which points to a direct link with
human water use.
As discussed above, in theory any human use will result in a

negative balance, though in practice the impact may be low
enough as to be acceptable. Determining the acceptable limit is
difficult and initial assumptions must be made. For the
modelling work, a decline in water levels of 10% of the total lake
depth was assumed as a threshold to indicate sustainability, with
a consequent loss of lake surface area. MoWR will need to
decide if this is an acceptable threshold before implementing
planned developments. For the sake of illustration, a threshold
of 25% decline in water levels was also tested. Based on these
thresholds the area of irrigation that could be developed was
determined.
MoWR has 153,000 ha of planned irrigation development. The

total water demand would be on the order of 1,300Mm 3 per
annum, or one quarter of the total basin resource. Even without
modelling, this appears impractical, especially under the
condition of rapidly growing population and the demands it will
make on water supplies. In practice, total water use (as
compared with demand) is lower, as demands may be frequently
unmet in drier years. This is the case in our modelling scenarios,
as is discussed in Section 7.4.6 below. Total water use with all
planned irrigation averages at 566Mm 3 per annum. However,
while this is only 11% of the currently available resource, the
impact on the lakes is significant.

The discussion of the results is by sub-basin, starting in the
north of the RVLB and working south. Table 7.11 and Table 7.12
summarise the results of the modelling for the 10% water level
decline threshold. Table 7.11 shows the change in lake level for
the long term average lake level. Table 7.12 shows the
difference in lake level at the end of the modelling period (2035,
in terms of the development strategies) comparing those under
current water abstraction conditions and under the condition of
planned irrigation.
The reason the two different indicators are used is that the
impact of overuse of water will increase over time and therefore
the difference in water level at the end of the modelled period is
most important. However, the meteorological conditions
prevailing in or near the final year may mask the full impact or
overstate it. Thus a comparison between the two is more
informing.
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.37: Response of LTA lake

level and area to planned irrigation
Lake Planne 10% Lake Are Sustain Lake level Are
d thresh level a able change a
irrigati old (m) chan loss irrigatio (m) Los
on ge (%) n s
(ha) (m) (ha) (%)
-
Ziway 38,000 -0.11 -1.30 5,500 -0.05 -1.0
24.2
-
Abiyata 0 -0.64 -1.57 0 -0.64 -8.5
21.0
Langano 750 -0.13 -0.10 -0.5 750 -0.10 -0.5
(Total for three lakes –
Total 38,750 level changes as 6,250
above)*
Shala 10,500 -0.18 -0.46 -0.4 500 -0.07 -1.0
-
Awasa 10,000 -0.19 -11.05 500 -0.26 -1.0
43.5
-0.1
-0.02
Abaya †
44,800 -0.20 -1.65 -9.0 1,500 (-
(-0.13)
0.7)
- -1.47 -9.2
Chamo† 4,000 -1.00 -6.59 4,000
21.5 (-1.38) (8.8)
Total 48,800 (Total for two lakes – 5,500

level changes as
above)**
Chew (not
47,000 (not applicable) 5,600
Bahir applicable)
*
Note: This row is for the three lakes of Ziway, Langano and Abiyata combined, as these
lakes are connected and the main impact is on Abiyata.
**Note: This row is for the two lakes of Abaya and Chamo combined, as these lakes are
connected and the main impact is on Lake Chamo.
†
Note For the Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo system, the :1 st no. in the ‘change’ column is for
1,500 ha in Abaya Sub-basin & 4,000 ha in Chamo, 2 nd no. in brackets is for 5,500 ha in
Abaya Sub-basin only
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.38: Lake level and

area in 2035 for planned irrigation
Lake Planne 10% Lake Area Sustain Lake Area
d thresh level loss able level loss
irrigati old (m) chan (%) irrigatio chan (%)
on ge n ge
(ha) (m) (ha) (m)
Ziway 38,000 -0.11 -1.59 -32.1 5,500 -0.10 -2.1
Abiyat
0 -0.64 -1.57 -39.7 0 -0.67 -15.4
a
Langa
750 -0.13 -0.20 -1.0 750 -0.20 -1.0
no
(Total for three lakes –
above)*
Shala 10,500 -0.18 -0.92 -0.8 500 -0.14 -0.1
-
Awasa 10,000 -0.19 -17.81 100. 500 -0.44 -1.5
0
-0.02
-0.1
Abaya† 44,800 -0.20 -3.14 -16.3 1,500 (-
(-0.6)
0.11)
-2.79 -17.7
Cham
4,000 -1.00 -12.21 -39.3 4,000 (- (-
o†
3.19) 18.6)
(Total for two lakes –
above)**
Chew (not
47,000 (not applicable) 5,600
Bahir applicable)

*
Note: This row is for the three lakes of Ziway, Langano and Abiyata combined, as
these lakes are connected and the main impact is on Abiyata.
** Note: This row is for the two lakes of Abaya and Chamo combined, as these lakes
are connected and the main impact is on Lake Chamo.
†
Note For the Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo system, the :1 st no. in the ‘change’ column
is for 1,500 ha in Abaya Sub-basin & 4,000ha in Chamo, 2 nd no. in brackets is for
5,500ha in Abaya Sub-basin only
Lakes Ziway, Langano, Abiyata and Shala
In the northern lakes of Ziway, Langano, Abiyata and Shala

there are a total of 49,250 ha of planned irrigation. The
connected system of lakes that is made up of Ziway, Langano
and Abiyata has 38,750 ha of planned irrigation. These lakes are
presented separately and as a total in Tables 7.11 and 7.12
because their hydraulic connection makes the lake impacts
inseparable. Developing the full planned area of irrigation
exceeds the 10% threshold in Lake Ziway, but the impact is far
greater in Abiyata. With almost a 2 metre loss in Lake Abiyata,
which is only about 7 metres deep on average, the lake would
essentially disappear in the long term.
The impact is within the threshold for Lake Langano, but it, too,
flows into Lake Abiyata and contributes to the large negative
impact there. The amount of planned irrigation in Lake Langano
is small (750 ha) and the overall impact is low, suggesting that
developing the Lake Langano areas is feasible within the
assumed threshold. There is no planned irrigation in the direct
Lake Abiyata sub-basin. The amount of sustainable irrigation
development under the assumed threshold conditions for Lake
Ziway is 5,500 ha, for a total for this system of 6,250 ha.
The Lake Shala catchment has an area of planned irrigation of

10,500 ha. Developing all of this would exceed the 10%
threshold. It is estimated that 500 ha is the limit of new
irrigation development under the imposed conditions.
For Lake Awasa, there has been some discussion of irrigating

10,000 ha in the area. As shown in Tables 7.11 and 7.12,
however, this level of development would have a devastating
effect on the lake. The sustainable limit is estimated at less than
500ha.

For the central lake system of Abaya and Chamo, planned
irrigation totals some 44,800 ha in Abaya and a further 4,000 ha
in Chamo. Because the lakes are connected, and Chamo is the
lower lake, most of the impact is on Lake Chamo. It can be seen
on the two tables above that the impact on Abaya exceeds the
imposed threshold, and the impact on Chamo is severe. It is
estimated that sustainable irrigation in the basin of the two
lakes combined is 5,500 ha, which could be any combination of
development in Abaya sub-basin or Chamo sub-basin.
The southern basin of Chew Bahir is comprised of the

catchments of the Segen and Weito rivers. Chew Bahir itself is
not a lake, but has become a salt pan which occasionally has a
small amount of water in it. However, upstream of Chew Bahir is
a significant wetland. Both Chew Bahir and the wetland are
sensitive to changes in the upstream flow regime.
The total area of planned irrigation in the Chew Bahir basin is

47,000 ha. Because Chew Bahir rarely has water in it, the
threshold of 10% loss in lake levels cannot be used. Instead, the
limit imposed is based on the total flow volume to the wetland
area. Initially, a 5% loss in flow into the wetland as an
acceptable limit was tested, resulting in a sustainable irrigation
area of 5,600 ha.
Based on this analysis, of the 153,000 ha of new irrigation

currently planned, only about 18,350 ha are sustainable from a
water resources perspective under the assumed constraints.
For sake of completeness, a threshold of 25% in lake water level

decline was also tested. The greater loss in lake levels would
allow a total of 8,000 ha of development in Lake Ziway
catchment, 1,500 ha in Langano and 3,000 ha in Shala, for a
total in the northern lakes area of 12,500. Lake Awasa irrigation
potential would remain at 500 ha. The Lake Abaya / Lake Chamo
system would be able to manage 9,000 ha. The limit on loss of
flow to the wetland and Chew Bahir was also relaxed to 10% as
a test, which resulted in an area of 15,600 ha of potential
irrigation. Therefore by allowing a 25% decrease in long term
average lake level an area of 37,600 ha could potentially be
developed.

Future irrigation development will require a decision what is the
acceptable decline in lake levels and consequent losses in areas
of lakes in the RVLB. Further, these losses have environmental,
economic, and social impacts which will have to be considered
for future irrigation and development strategies in the RVLB.
Simply, the decision to develop further irrigation in the RVLB is
a trade-off between irrigating land for a relatively small overall
contribution to Basin RGDP and preserving the lakes, which
support fisheries, tourism and the livelihoods of many
communities.
Because the lake systems are separate (the northern lakes of

Ziway, Abiyata and Langano, plus Shala, Lake Awasa, the central
system of Abaya and Chamo, and the southern sub-basins of the
Weito and Segen rivers flowing into Chew Bahir) decisions
should be made separately within these geographical areas.
Applying the precautionary principle is recommended in

conjunction with a well structured and maintained monitoring
programme. Smaller areas could be developed first, with close
monitoring of lake levels, with larger areas developed as the
impact on the lakes is better understood.
7.4.6 Assessment of the Water Resources Use and Availability

As noted above, our modelling work indicates that, under
natural conditions (no abstractions), total surface water
resources (inflow to the lakes) amount to some 5,312Mm 3/year
for the RVLB overall. The total current abstractions for
irrigation and water supplies for domestic and industrial use are
estimated at about 130Mm3/year, leaving 5,182 Mm3/year
surface water resources of the RVLB under existing conditions,
to sustain lake levels and the environment as well as meet
expected economic development.
The Master Plan analyses development potential by the eight

Development Zones (DZs) of the RVLB. The potential for
irrigation development, industrial development, population
growth rates and the expansion of urban areas are all different
from one DZ to another. Water resources and water use are
therefore assessed on the same basis and according to the same
geographical areas as the DZs. Table 7.13 below shows the

current water resources availability for each DZ and the
modelled water use for the various users.

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.39: Surface water
availability and use by DZ for irrigation and domestic
water supply
DZ Current Water Use per Annum (Mm3)
water
availabi Planne MP MP Wate MP MP
lity d propos propos r proposed proposed
(Mm3 irrigati ed ed supp irrigation irrigation 2
per on 1
irrigat irrigat ly 1 & water &
annum) ion ion supply water
Case Case supply
12 23
DZ
1 411 9 8 8 8 16 16
DZ
2 250 6 6 6 12 7 7
DZ
3 1298 126 5 21 25 30 46
DZ
4 874 23 0 0 16 16 16
DZ
5 379 69 10 24 0 10 4
DZ
6 1026 180 10 10 6 16 16
DZ
7 327 40 5 5 0 5 5
DZ
8 617 113 12 12 4 15 15
Basin Water
Use 566 56 86 71 115 125
Note: 1 – “Planned Irrigation” is if the 153,000 ha currently planned irrigation is implemented
Note: 2 and 3 – Case 1 and Case 2 refer to the Lake Abaya, Lake Chamo system only, with
differences affecting two DZs. Case 1 is with 5,500 ha of irrigation development in the Lake
Abaya sub-basin with none in the Lake Chamo sub-basin and Case 2 is with 1,500 ha in Lake
Abaya Sub-basin and 4,000 ha in the Lake Chamo sub-basin.
It can be seen in the table that developing the full 153,000 ha of

currently planned irrigation would use 566Mm 3 of water, nearly
11% of the total available resource of the Basin. As described in
Section 7.4.5, the impact on the health of the lakes would
preclude this amount of irrigation. The Master Plan proposed

irrigation Cases 1 and 2 describe the 18,350 ha considered
sustainable under the assumed threshold of a 10% decline in
lake levels and the consequent loss of lake surface area. The
difference in the two cases is for the Lake Abaya and Lake
Chamo system only, with differences in how much irrigation is
developed in each of the sub-basins. Even with case 2, which
requires more water, 86Mm3 per annum represents less than 2%
of the total available water resource. Under the condition of
developing the 18,350 ha of irrigation, plus ensuring domestic
water supply, the total water use is 125Mm 3 (under the Case 2
scenario) or just under 2.5% of the total resource. Figure 7.2
below shows the water use values under each of these
scenarios.
Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.12: Water use within

each DZ for MP proposed irrigation 1 & water
supply for urban development (Mm3/Year)
The magnitude of water use for irrigation between DZs is

evident in Figure 7.2. DZ3 and DZ6 are the main irrigating
areas, followed by DZ8 and DZ5. The remainder have lower
irrigation potential. DZ3 and DZ4 have good potential for

industrial development and hence urban growth, leading to
greater demands for domestic water supply.
Water usage for urban development is greater than that needed

for the areas proposed for irrigation in DZs 2, 3 and 4. This is
most likely because DZ 3 and 4, and to a lesser extent DZ 2 have
a larger number of urban areas; they also have the largest
future urban water demands in the Basin, such that urban
water use exceeds that required for irrigation.
The pattern of water use within DZs for supplying urban

development is determined by the size and number of urban
centres within a DZ, and their predicted future growth
prescribed by their development strategy. DZs which require the
greatest water use to supply development in urban areas are DZ
3 and 4, with twice the urban water demand compared to DZ 2
and 6. The existing urban population of DZ 3 and 4 is large and
is predicted to expand greatly to more than double that of DZs 2
and 6 during the Master Plan period, thus doubling urban water
demands.
DZ 2 will grow rapidly in the future, especially around the larger

towns of Shashemene, Ziway, and Dugda. As these towns grow,
usage of the surface water resources will increase through the
Master Plan period. DZ 6 covers a large area of the RVLB but
has few large towns, and much of the predicted urban growth is
be centred on Arba Minch. Arba Minch accounts for 41% of DZ
6 water demand, and locally has a large impact on surface water
resources. There is little water demand for future urban water
supply in DZs 5, 7 and 8, where there are very few urban areas
and little predicted expansion in the future.
Overall, the results show that it is feasible to support the levels

of urban development proposed in the MP from the surface
water resources in the RVLB Basin.
Naturally the most water use in all DZs, discounting the case of
all planned irrigation, is caused by the phasing of the MP
proposed irrigation with the development of urban areas as the
Master Plan progresses towards the year 2035. The overall
reduction of surface water resources in each DZ to meet the
future water demands of both the MP proposed irrigation and

MP proposed urban development is feasible without
constraining the development strategies set out in the Master
Plan for the DZs.
Water scarcity is already an issue in the RVLB. Any further

increases in water use for irrigation, domestic use, and industry,
will both exacerbate water scarcity in the Basin and worsen
extreme water scarcity during drought. This is especially true of
DZs 3, 6 and 7 which are drought prone. The scarcity of water in
the RVLB means that hard choices will need to be made on
where the available water resources are best allocated to have
the greatest impact on development.
7.4.7 Lake Levels Response to the Master Plan Strategy

As described in Section 8 of the Master Plan, there are four
Development Strategies (DSs) analysed for each of the eight
Development Zones (DZs). The difference between the
strategies is more one of the extent of development, rather than
the type or approach to development. Not all DZs follow the
same set of strategies because some are currently in a more
advanced state of development; in other words they are already
more advanced than how DS 1 or DS 2 are defined. Also, the
DZs have differing development potential in terms of the
expected extent of development over the MP period, and also
the focus of development, with some having greater agricultural
potential and others with greater industrial potential. Therefore,
the final Master Plan is a mosaic of strategies, with somewhat
different starting and ending points in each DZ. The Master Plan
for each DZ showing the differing DSs is discussed in Section
8.6 and shown on Table 8.2.
Water use and the impact on the water resources of the DZs also
differ. To analyse the overall impact on water resources and on
the impact of increasing water use on the lakes, an assessment
is made for the expected extent of development over the MP
period within each DZ. Figures 7.3 and 7.4 show the changes in
lake levels with the increases in water use for the MP and over
the MP period. Figure 7.3 is the Master Plan strategy without
any future irrigation development. Figure 7.4 shows the impact
on the lakes with the MP strategy plus implementing the
‘sustainable’ irrigation of 18,350 ha across the RVLB. Tables
7.14 and 7.15 also show the changes in lake level in response to

Master Plan development, with Table 7.14 outlining the
differences in water levels for the long term average (LTA) and
Table 7.15 showing the difference in water levels at the end of
the modelling period.
The impacts of Master Plan development on Lake Ziway and on

Lake Langano are relatively minor, with or without sustainable
irrigation. For Langano, this is due to the low expected growth
in urbanisation in its sub-basin and the small amount of planned
irrigation. For Ziway, there is significant urban growth expected,
as well as some 5,500 ha of new irrigation, but the impact is on
Lake Abiyata to a much greater extent than on Ziway. However,
the impact on Lake Abiyata is within the assumed threshold of
sustainability without new irrigation, and only just beyond the
threshold with new irrigation. If new irrigation is developed
cautiously in the Ziway sub-basin, it should be sustainable.
Lake Shala shows a larger decline in lake levels as DZ 2 has the

third highest water supply requirements for the development of
urban areas during the Master Plan period. Lake levels are
drawn down by water use from Shashemene, a high demand
centre, accounting for 41% of the total water demand for DZ 2.
Shashemene meets its water demands by abstracting surface
water directly from the rivers feeding Lake Shala. When the
water demand associated with the planned irrigation (500 ha in
the Lake Shala sub-basin) is added to the rising urban domestic
demands (Figure 7.4) lake levels decrease somewhat more
rapidly.
Lake Awasa exceeds the threshold somewhat even without new

irrigation. This suggests that groundwater sources should be
investigated for urban domestic and industrial water supplies as
the MP progresses. It also suggests that any future irrigation
development be carried out with caution.
The impact on Lake Chamo is significant. Lake levels fall

considerably in response to urban water demands in DZ 6 (see
Tables 7.14 and 7.15). Over 40% of water used to meet the
future urban water demands for DZ 6 is for the town of Arba
Minch. The water supply for Arba Minch is mostly abstracted
from the River Kulfo, a major feeder stream to Lake Chamo, and
any change to its flow has a significant impact on the level of

Lake Chamo. Because Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo are
hydrologically linked, lake level changes in Lake Abaya caused
by increased future water demands will also affect Chamo lake
levels.

Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.13: Changes in lake
levels for MP (without new irrigation)

Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.14: Changes in lake
levels for MP (with new irrigation)

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.40: LTA lake levels in
response MP development
Lake Level ‘Sustainable’ Water ‘Sustainabl
thresho irrigation supply e’ irrigation
ld + water
(m) supply
Change in LTA lake level (m)
Ziway -0.11 -0.05 -0.01 -0.21
Abiyat
-0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64
a
Langa
-0.13 -0.10 -0.03 -0.13
no
Shala -0.18 -0.07 -0.57 -0.65
Awasa -0.19 -0.26 -0.08 -0.33
Abaya -0.20 -0.02 -0.10 -0.13
Cham
-1.00 -1.47 -0.84 -2.29
o
Note: The ‘sustainable’ irrigation development assumed for the Abaya –
Chamo sub-basin is for 1,500 ha in Abaya sub-basin and 4,000 ha in Chamo
Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.41: Lake levels in 2035

in response to MP development
Lake Level Proposed Proposed Proposed
threshol irrigation water irrigation &
d supply water supply
(m) Change in Lake Level at 2035 (m)
Ziway -0.11 -0.10 -0.17 -0.41
Abiyat
-0.64 -0.67 -0.67 -0.67
a
Langan
-0.13 -0.20 -0.08 -0.28
o
Shala -0.18 -0.14 -1.59 -1.73
Awasa -0.19 -0.44 -0.21 -0.62
Abaya -0.20 -0.02 -0.19 -0.22
Chamo -1.00 -2.79 -2.51 -5.35
Note: The ‘sustainable’ irrigation development assumed for the Abaya –
Chamo sub-basin is for 1,500 ha in Abaya sub-basin and 4,000 ha in
Chamo

The impact on Lake Chamo for Master Plan development
suggests that groundwater sources should be investigated for
urban domestic and industrial water supplies as the MP
develops. It also suggests that future irrigation be carried out
with caution.
Chew Bahir and its upstream wetland are sensitive to changes

in river flow, and will respond to any change in water use in the
upstream DZs of 7, 8 and 6. The analysis shows that the total
annual averaged flow to the wetland and Chew Bahir will
decrease by 0.3% to meet the water demands for urban water
supply predicted in the Master Plan development scenarios. This
is not surprising, as the current urban population is very low in
DZs 7, 8, and few large towns exist along the course of the
Lower Segen River which borders DZ 6 and 8. Also, there are
few towns in the Weito catchment, which contributes 51% of
total river inflow to Chew Bahir. Because the expected water
supply demands are very low there is little impact on Weito
River flow. However, total flow arriving at Chew Bahir and its
wetland decreases by 3.3% when the proposed irrigation area of
5,600 ha is added to water demands from future urban
development.
7.4.8 Conclusions from the Water Resources Analysis

As has been discussed in other sections of this report, water was
identified as the main constraint to development by MoWR at
the outset of the project. The water resources modelling work
carried out in this study has confirmed that to be the case. In
most cases, the expected increases in domestic water supply
and in industrial water supply are sustainable, with the
exception of the area of Awasa and of Arba Minch. It is
recommended that investigations are carried out to identify
groundwater sources for these urban areas.
When new irrigation development is added to the increased

domestic and industrial demands the impact on the available
water resources of the RVLB and on the health of the lakes
increases. Careful consideration needs to be given to all future
irrigation development plans. It is recommended that the
monitoring systems on the lakes be improved. This includes the

staff gauges themselves and the data management. Future
irrigation development should be done cautiously, with close
monitoring of the impact on the lakes which are effected.
Policy decisions are necessary concerning the acceptable

decline of lake levels and loss of lake area in the RVLB. In
addition to the environmental consequences of lake level and
area decline, there are economic and social considerations.
Because of the constraint water resources impose on economic
development in the basin, a choice will need to be made
between irrigation and other approaches to economic
development.
7.4.9 Water Pollution Control

With increasing industrialisation and urbanisation in the RVLB
pollution of surface waters (and groundwater) will be a growing
problem. Some of the potential industries are agricultural
processors, some of which can be heavy polluters, such as coffee
washing. Pollution and how to control it needs to be considered
in the rivers as well as the lakes.
Water pollution is not just an environmental problem, but an

economic one too. As much of the surface water will need to be
used for water supply and for industrial water, there is a cost
associated with treating dirty water which is often much greater
than treating waste water at the source.
Pollution control is mainly a regulation and enforcement issue. It

is generally not a huge cost. Water quality should be part of the
management mandate of the River Basin Organisation (RBO)
(see Section 10.7). Setting up regulations and an enforcement
mechanism now is most effective, rather than waiting until the
expansion of industry and urban areas is well underway.
7.4.10 Groundwater Potential

An assessment of the groundwater resource and availability has
been undertaken. The studies undertaken during Phase 1 and
Phase 2 identify that groundwater is an ill defined and relatively
limited resource. The available data set is extremely limited
which makes describing the hydrogeological complexities of the

Basin difficult. Therefore, the assessment made here is
necessarily coarse.
The greatest difficulty is to study groundwater at the full Basin

level because the aquifers tend to be fragmented and
nonhomogeneous. For similar reasons, difficulties in reaching an
understanding of groundwater resources availability are
encountered even at the level of watershed studies (such as the
Watershed Development Prefeasibility Studies for West Ziway
Watershed and Awasa Watershed, prepared as part of this
study). Groundwater resources planning within the Basin needs
to be undertaken with a focus on specific developments wherein
more local assessments may be carried out. We have
recommended that MoWR begin a systematic, regulated
monitoring programme as a matter of urgency so that future
assessments will improve.
The estimate of the available groundwater resource undertaken

is described in more detail in Annex A, and a summary is
presented here. Table 3.5 in Section 3.4.7 of this document
(repeated below as Table 7.16, for ease of reference) provides at
best only a broad indication of the groundwater resource and its
development potential.

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.42: Estimated
groundwater recharge and resource availability
Developme Estimated annual Estimated
nt zone direct groundwater
groundwater resource
recharge availability
(Mm3/year) (Mm3/year)
DZ1 146 7
DZ2 119 6
DZ3 286 14
DZ4 180 9
DZ5 51 3
DZ6 167 8
DZ7 65 3
DZ8 65 3
Basin Total 1,080 53
Groundwater Quality
Groundwater quality in the RVLB reflects the origins of the

groundwater and influences on that groundwater, typically:
 sodium and bicarbonate are the dominant major cations and

anions
 fluoride (F) concentrations are high, particularly (although
not exclusively) in the valley floor
 F concentrations are particularly high in areas of, or
influenced by, deep seated thermal waters or near areas of
recent vulcanicity (e.g. around the Corbetti caldera)
 most water are alkaline, in the pH range 7-9, although
occasionally higher, which reflects the surface water quality
in most of the lakes
 groundwater quality improves markedly near fresh
recharging streams and rivers; similarly it is better near
points of groundwater recharge, especially in the highland
areas (this was noted from field surveys around the Meki
river)
 groundwater generally appears of better quality at higher
elevations

 near points of discharge or of slow and sluggish
groundwater movement groundwater quality, unless
regularly flushed, can be poor due to concentration of salts
by evaporation (the poor quality of groundwater in the Weito
Valley, as recorded in field data, appears to be an example of
this)
Groundwater is also influenced by lake water quality, such as:
 around Lake Abiyata and Lake Shala, Na concentration is

greater than 500 mg/l in both groundwater and the lakes
 around Lake Chamo and Abaya, the bicarbonate-calcium-
magnesium water type is dominant
 the groundwater at the eastern and western side of Lake
Awasa or in the lacustrine deposit has EC, Na, Cl, and NO3
greater than the lake, while at the southern side of the lake
and along Tikur Wuha river, the groundwater has lower
concentrations, indicating that major groundwater flow to
the lake is from the southern side of the lake
 in the groundwater at the northwest and southwest sides of
Lake Awasa, EC, Ca and F progressively increases away from
the lake. This may be due to lake water recharges
 the EC of Lake Awasa is less than the groundwater around
the lake indicating that the main inflow to the lake is not
groundwater
There appears to be a difference in chemical composition

between groundwater from over 1400 m, having very low
concentrations of total dissolved solids, conductivity and
chloride, compared with groundwater at lower elevations. This
reflects the rapid movement from recharge to discharge – i.e.
fresh percolating groundwater has little opportunity to leach
chemicals from the surrounding strata.
Groundwater quality in the basin is complex, with numerous

interactions, which is a reflection of the overall complexity of
the hydrogeological systems. Overall, groundwater quality in the
highlands tends to be better than in the lowlands. Much of the
water quality in the lowlands is relatively poor, which is a major
concern of water supply service providers.

The key water quality parameter of concern in the basin is
fluoride as this is widespread in groundwater of the basin and is
a major constraint to water supply. Fluoride concentration
frequently exceeds the WHO guideline level of 1.5 mg/l. The
project has produced thematic maps for fluoride concentrations
showing naturally high concentrations which are widely
distributed, although the area around Lake Awasa is particularly
notable for high concentrations of fluoride. Similar high
concentrations are found in the areas of Lakes Shala, Abiyata,
Langano, Abaya and Chitu.
Fluoride in waters at a concentration of 3 mg/l will cause mild

fluorosis (mottling of teeth). Higher fluoride levels in drinking
waters cause both dental and skeletal fluorosis resulting serious
public health problems. The treatment of fluoride from
groundwater, if viable, could resolve a number of pressing water
supply problems within the basin area
Shallower groundwater sources nearer to the point of recharge

tend to be less susceptible to high fluoride concentration and
they have a shorter residence time within the strata so there is a
lesser chance for chemical reaction. Thermal waters tend to
have higher fluorides as the water temperatures allow greater
dissolution of fluoride. This probably explains the
preponderance of high F in waters around Awasa.
Another key concern in groundwater is contamination by human

waster. Much of the rural areas of the Basin use shallow
groundwater for domestic water supply. Lack of knowledge of
well protection and of hygiene in general means people do not
protect water sources properly and contamination ensues. Water
borne diseases are the main cause of illness across the RVLB
and water source contamination by human activities, especially
waste, is the cause.
Groundwater Development and Information
The nature, distribution and constraints of the groundwater

resource result in a need for groundwater development and
management to focus upon the understanding of groundwater
resources (and their interactions) on a more local scale within
the Basin. This may be focussed on, for example larger town

schemes, would require more robust analysis and monitoring at
this scale and would involve the development of a local
groundwater resource management strategy. Such a strategy
must be dictated by hydrogeological (e.g. recharge area) not
administrative boundaries; in other words, they should be based
on a defined groundwater management zone. It will be also
essential to fit the assessment into a more regional context; not
Basin wide. This may be by sub-basin or some further
subdivision, depending upon the nature of the groundwater
body; for example, valley floor groundwater bodies in the
lacustrine deposits are likely to be more extensive than volcanic
groundwater bodies in volcanic strata on the valley sides. These
ideas, summarised below, are further developed in the separate
Water Supply Prefeasibility Study Reports for Adami Tulu and
Yirga Alem, prepared as part of this study.
The implementation of groundwater management strategies

either at local or regional level will require that more rigorous
monitoring and evaluation of the chosen study area must
precede any more complex approaches such as groundwater
resource (numerical) modelling. Until conceptual models of
groundwater are more fully developed, there is little merit in
undertaking such numerical modelling exercises – a better
understanding of the system being modelled is a pre-requisite of
any such process. For further development of the conceptual
model, and prior to the development of numerical groundwater
models, a better baseline data set is needed. This should
include but not be limited to:
 groundwater elevation time series information

 more information on discreet aquifer bodies and their
characteristics (such as transmissivity)
 continued monitoring of water quality parameters (both
spatially and with depth)
 an assessment and quantification of existing groundwater
utilisation and further spring discharge measurement
Given the resources (staff, technical know how, equipment,

administration etc.) required to carry out such studies, the
initial focus of these activities should be through applying such
techniques to, for example, water supply developments, where
specific budgets and activities can be identified and a more local

groundwater resource management strategy evolved (i.e.
specific to that development) .
This local strategy must be informed by hydrogeological (e.g.

recharge area) not administrative boundaries. Typically the
components of the local strategy should include:
 defining the extent of the groundwater management zone

 yield/ production constraints on each source within the
managed zone
 monitoring and measurement processes
 identification and assessment of threats to the resource (e.g.
from pollution)
 resource re-evaluation and management processes
 information dissemination
In support of the groundwater management strategy, regular,

targeted monitoring of the groundwater will be required. The
strategy should therefore identify:
 monitoring points, frequency of sampling

 local record keeping and recording procedures
 requirements for long term water quality and water level
sampling
At each ‘scheme’ level this monitoring process should be

established through a proper Operation and Maintenance plan,
which will identify both equipment and personnel requirements,
but must also include an element of community participation, for
example local well ‘guardians’ recording groundwater level
depths.
To inform the regional resources management strategy, this

local resource management process must be linked with the
catchment wide requirements. In particular, reporting processes
must be established to ensure locally generated information is
gathered, collated and analysed at a more regional level. This
will also provide access to more specialist knowledge at that
regional level (e.g. at the Water Resources Bureaux). Thus
localised approaches to groundwater development and
management will ultimately be coordinated at regional level and

fit policies and strategies already in place at national level. In
turn these local approaches may be advised by more regionally
developed, integrated plans that allow the water resource as a
whole to be actively managed. Thus an iterative process is set in
place that integrates both local and more regional groundwater
resources management.
7.5 Economic Modelling Procedures
7.5.1 Objectives
The objectives of the modelling process are to:
 use the Phase 1 estimates of GVP, Value Added and

employment by sector to construct a predictive model of
economic growth in the RVLB natural resources sector over
a 30 year planning period
 use the model to demonstrate the impact of interventions by
the Master Plan on economic growth in the sector
 uncover constraints to the use of the RVLB natural resource
base (land, water, dry matter and woody biomass) under
conditions of increasing population growth and economic
activity
7.5.2 Model Formulation

A) Precursors to the Optimisation Process
A fairly complex modelling process was required to achieve the
objectives, which is outlined schematically in Figure 7.5. All the
data on which the model is based are held in an Access
database, with the wereda as the basic unit of statistical
enumeration and 2005 as the baseline year. Data is accessed by
means of queries which are generally simple and do little more
than group wereda level data by DZ. Query output can be
imported into spreadsheet based modules using the Excel
Import External Data command. The advantage of this approach
is that any changes in the database (for example revised
population data, changes in DZ boundaries or sub-divisions of
DZ) can be quickly processed and incorporated into other
modules.

Three distinct modules are required to model population
projections, food demand projections and crop production
coefficients: they are sub-models which must be processed to
provide data for the main optimisation model (see Annex C,
Section 3). Population projections can be complex because it
may be required to disaggregate migration and fertility
components of growth rates, and present growth rates by
variable time periods.

Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.15: Schematic showing model
modules

The prediction of food demand depends on income and price
elasticity of demand coefficients for each food group; these have
to be recalculated depending on expected changes in household
incomes over time. Crop production coefficients change with
assumptions on the use of crop inputs (seeds, fertiliser and
SWC) and farm management; these need recalculating to reflect
changes in input delivery over time expected as part of the
Master Plan.
An essential precursor to the modelling process is a repository

of scenarios and strategies which provide the optimisation
framework. A scenario may be endogenous to the model process
- one of a set of alternative actions which can be taken to
achieve a development target within a sector, specific to DZ,
planning period and target population. For example, this could
be the number of new water connections required to achieve a
relatively high, medium or low level of service delivery. A
scenario may also be exogenous to the planning process, e.g.
the expected growth of population (high, medium or low) or the
level of performance of the macro-economy. A strategy is the
application of a set of scenarios for the development of a
particular DZ or group of DZs which may vary over time. For
example in a DZ with a relatively undifferentiated economy, a
strategy may be defined which focuses on agricultural
development early in the master plan period. The strategy may
change later in time reflecting the more differentiated
investment required for a more diverse economy.
It is absolutely essential to be able to track the application of

scenarios and strategies in different model runs, or risk
confusion in understanding the output. Thus the scenarios and
strategy worksheet has no links: it is necessary to paste in the
scenario data as a permanent record. The proposed strategies
(combinations of scenarios by DZ over time) are also recorded in
the work book, and selected from there for use in the
optimisation process.
B) The Optimisation Process: EROAM

EROAM is an Excel spreadsheet with a linear programme add-
in1. The objective function of the Economic Resource
Optimisation and Allocation Model (EROAM) model is to
maximise Value Added of the RVLB regional natural resource-
based economy under the following constraints:
 changing demand for foodstuffs (classified as cereals, pulses,

oilseeds, vegetables, roots, fruit, enset, livestock products,
lake and non lake fish and sugar and honey, and expressed in
kilocalorie equivalents) which is expected to change with the
growing economy, distinguishing between urban and rural
diets
 availability of land for rain fed and irrigated cropping and
forestry, which is classified as cultivated land in farms,
suitable but uncultivated land on existing farms, and land of
defined suitability not presently within farms
 increase in population following CSA projections over a 30
year period, but in addition distinguishing between fertility
and migration rates
 crop production capacity of eight production systems:
subsistence (farms less than one hectare), smallholder
(farms greater than one hectare), State Farms and
Commercial Farms; which can be rain-fed or irrigated: this
production capacity will change over time in response
changes in availability of improved seed, fertiliser, soil and
water conservation and extension service
 relative area of land under each production system, which
will change in response to changes (or lack of change) in
land tenure policy
 changing demand for woody biomass (fuel wood and
construction timber) within the present and expected future
woody biomass resources of RVLB
 changing demand for dry matter for livestock consumption
within the present and future dry matter resources of the
RVLB: stocking rates can either rise with increased dry
matter production (from expansion of cultivated land) or fall
in response to a defined de-stocking policy
 changes in the resource base and productivity of the
fisheries and apiculture subsectors e.g. increases in hive
1
What’s Best!® 8.0.4.0 (March 31 2006) Copyright © 2006 Lindo Systems, Inc. Library
4.1.1.3

numbers up to the maximum sustainable density, changes in
fish stocks as a result of regulation policies, and
improvement in management.
The model takes into account the possibility of export from

RVLB of excess production (exports incur a transport and
marketing cost), and import of deficits (imports incur the
opportunity cost of home production) in foodstuffs, woody
biomass and dry matter. The import and export “penalties”
reflect the fact that it is generally cheaper to produce for the
home market rather than engage in trade.
The geographical units of the model are Development Zones

(DZs, described in detail in Section 6 of this report). There are
eight in number classified as similar economic units on the basis
of a comprehensive livelihood survey in SNNPR and already
adopted by that region as meso-level planning units. Note that
development zones have not been objectively defined for
Oromiya, so the criteria used for SNNPRS zones have been
extended into that region. The model identifies production
surpluses and deficits which are translated into exports and
imports (through six transport models, one for each time
period), following the same cost penalties as exports and
imports outside the region. The balance of exports and imports
between the development zones represents the balance of trade
of RVLB and the rest of Ethiopia.
Value Added (the objective function to maximise, whist taking

into account the additional costs of importing and exporting) is
equivalent to the Gross Value of Production (GVP) minus the
cost of intermediate inputs, and is the return to labour. It is
equivalent to the Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP).
The model has been prepared around variable time periods, the
baseline (2005) for which data is available, and projected in
variable time periods through to 2035. Up to seven time periods
with a maximum duration of ten years can be chosen. The
projections made for each time period include:
 rural and urban population

 the rural and urban per capita kilocalorie demand for
foodstuffs of different types

 changing crop yields per ton of crop under each production
system
 changes in land tenure policy (or not)
 availability of additional cultivable land, both on-farm and
new lands which is available for either crops or forestry
 value added and GVP per unit of production, weighted by the
contribution of different production systems (production
systems using a high level of inputs have lower value
added/GVP per unit of production but normally produce
more units and/or a better quality product)
 woody biomass, taking into account changes in woody
biomass stock and Mean annual Increment (MAI) as a result
of deforestation and changing land use (e.g. the change in
cultivated area and the uptake of farm woodlots and
plantations in response to increased woody biomass demand)
 dry matter available for livestock feed, reflecting changes in
land use, particularly the expansion of the cultivated area
The principle of the model is simple:
 production available is baseline production (for crops, TLU,

fish, honey and beeswax and fuelwood and timber) in 2005,
plus the option to introduce new land for crop production or
forestry, to which a constraint cost is attached which
represents land development costs, additional marketing
costs, etc
 production is destined for domestic consumption or export
and is valued at the Value Added (return to labour). Exported
commodities are also valued at Value Added, less a penalty
cost representing additional marketing costs and transport
 production meets demand of the urban and rural population,
and imports are available to make good any short fall in
demand, but at the opportunity cost of domestic production,
i.e. the negative value of Value Added
The main constraints applied are:
 production for the domestic market plus imports minus

exports must equal the demand of the urban and rural
markets

 baseline production plus new production must equal
domestic production plus production for export
 new land put to cultivation or forestry cannot exceed the
land available in any time period
The objective function is to maximise the Value Added of

production for the domestic market, plus the Value Added less
marketing and transport costs of exports, minus the Value
Added of imports. New land resources can be brought in to
augment production, but at a development cost which is
deducted from Value Added. The objective function is the sum of
Value Added for all the chosen time periods (i.e. the 30 year
planning period).
C) The “Rest of the Economy” Model

EROAM (described above) is an optimisation model of the
physical and financial use of natural resources in RVLB, and has
the objective of maximising the value of the natural resources
economy under the constraint of satisfying the demand for food
of the rural and urban population with the land, water and
labour resources available. However, EROAM provides an
incomplete picture of the Basin economy as a whole and, used
alone, raises unanswered questions about the welfare of the
Basin population. If for example, the natural resources sectors
cannot provide sufficient employment for the expected future
population, what will be the consequences? If growth in the
natural resources sector is constrained by insufficient land,
water and biotic resources, can the manufacturing and service
sectors grow sufficiently rapidly within the planning time
horizon to maintain and improve the financial wellbeing of the
population? And what resources will be required, in terms of
public services such as health, education and utilities to allow
this growth to happen?
To help to answer these questions, a complementary “rest of the

economy” (ROE) model has been prepared. This was facilitated
by the regional economic accounting data collected in Phase 1
of the project and presented in Phase 1, Part 2, Volume 4, Annex
A, Regional Product Estimates. In this report the RGDP was
formally estimated using standard economic accounting
techniques. As a result, the gross value of production (GVP), the
value added and the return to labour were estimated for each

sector. For definitions and methodology please see the cited
report. The approach has the advantage of providing a
framework to predict the relative growth of sectors within the
economy, and accordingly was used in preparing the ROE
model.
The ROE model does not use optimisation techniques because it

is merely designed to test the results of the EROAM model on
the rest of the economy2. In particular, it takes the following out-
turns from EROAM:
 employment in the natural resources sector

 expenditure on food services (total expenditure on food per
capita minus the cost of food raw materials)
 the estimated value of the natural resources RGDP together
with specified assumptions on future levels of service in
health, education, public administration, electricity and
water supply.
These, together with the growth of economic activities that must

necessarily take place with an increasing population
(construction, services and value of real estate), provide the
driving variables that we can be sure will change the shape of
the RVLB economy within the planning period 3. The model
calculates the economic impact of these drivers and returns
RGDP, RGDP per capita, employment rates and return to labour
by sector. The out-turn for the baseline period is commensurate
with the present value of the RVLB RGDP estimated in Phase 1.
As well as providing a prediction of Basin welfare and economic

structure, the ROE model is useful because it can identify
unrealistic solutions made by EROAM. For example, we would
expect the value of the agricultural sector as a percent of the
RGDP to diminish over time as urban sectors with a higher
return to labour grow. If this pattern of growth is not observed,
then this is counter-intuitive. Also, if labour is predicted to be
massively under or over employed then this, too, is unrealistic.
2
Econometric modelling is usually based on multivariate analysis rather than LP.
3
There may well be others, for example changing terms of trade of the economy and
natural disasters, but these are subject to probability and much less easy to model.

7.5.3 Analysis of Alternative Development Strategies
As described above, development strategies are the product of a
selection of scenarios which may be exogenous (population
growth and food demand) or endogenous (initiatives to improve
crop production, public investment in water supply, health,
education etc) to the model. Naturally enough, exogenous
scenarios do not vary between strategies. Table 7.17
summarises the selected scenarios for each strategy.
Strategies A through D are then applied differentially to DZ by

time period, depending on the current economic situation of
each. The rationale is discussed in Section 8.4, but broadly
Strategy A is applied to DZ5, DZ7 and DZ8 in the short term and
Strategy B is applied to these in the medium to long term.
Strategy B is applied to DZ1, DZ2 and DZ3 in the short term and
Strategy C is applied in the medium to long term. Strategy C is
applied to DZ4 in the short term and Strategy D is applied in the
medium to long term. Strategy B is applied to DZ6 in the short
term and Strategy C is applied in the medium to long term.
7.5.4 Natural Resources Allocation

A) Land Availability
The availability of additional land for allocation to crops and

forestry is an important input to the model. This was estimated
using land suitability and GIS procedures which are described in
Section 2.5. The total area suitable for rainfed smallholder
cultivation was calculated to be 3.9 million ha, 4% of which was
S1 (highly suitable), 49% was S2 (suitable) and 47% was S3
(marginally suitable). Assuming that the present cultivated area
of 1.9 million ha is a subset of this, (48% of the total), then it
could also be assumed that 95% of S1 and S2 land is already
committed, leaving about 2 million additional ha available for
cultivation, 0.2 million ha of which is S1/S2, and the remainder
S3.
Of this, it was estimated (see Annex C Section 2.4) that 0.4

million ha are available on-farm, as land on larger farms which
is presently uncultivated. This land was assumed to be S1 and
S2 (even though the data suggest only 0.2 million ha of S1/S2
remain). The remainder, 1.6 million ha was assumed to be

available for development, but only S3 in quality. The FAO
classification suggests that crop yields of only 70% of S1/S2 land
may be obtained on this land.
The GIS shows the location of this unused land resource. The
data suggest that 30% of additional S1/S2 land on-farm is in
DZ3, 62% approximately equally distributed between DZ1, DZ2,
DZ4 and DZ6, and the balance in DZ5, DZ7 and DZ8. Of the land
available off-farm, 37% occurs in DZ6, 40% in DZ3, DZ4, and
DZ7, and the balance in DZ5 and DZ8.
Irrigable land available for development far exceeds the water

resources available and the hydrological modelling identified a
total of only 18,350 ha, of which 40% is in DZ2, 22% in DZ6,
15% in both DZ7 and DZ8, and 8% in DZ4.
These incremental land resources were allocated by DZ to be

available for additional cultivation and forestry. However,
availability of suitable land for rainfed cultivation was
constrained to be 5% of the total per annum to reflect
difficulties of access. This roughly conforms to the present rate
of expansion of cultivation, which was about 10% during the
period 2001-07 (see Annex C, Table 2.15).

Table MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.43: Selected scenarios by strategy
Strategy A Strategy B Strategy C Strategy D
Scenarios exogenous to the model
low growth: 23.4 low growth: 23.4 low growth: 23.4 low growth: 23.4
Population
million rural and 5.38 million rural and 5.38 million rural and 5.38 million rural and 5.38
growth
million urban by 2035 million urban by 2035 million urban by 2035 million urban by 2035
Food demand medium growth medium growth medium growth medium growth
Additional S1/S2 0.446 million ha 0.446 million ha 0.446 million ha 0.446 million ha
land on farm available for available for available for available for
available development development development development
Additional S3 1.567 million ha 1.567 million ha 1.567 million ha 1.567 million ha
land off farm available for available for available for available for
available development development development development
Moderate loss of Moderate loss of Moderate loss of Moderate loss of
Woody biomass
present stock present stock present stock present stock
Macro economic
environment moderate assumption moderate assumption moderate assumption moderate assumption
Micro economic
environment moderate performance moderate performance moderate performance moderate performance
Scenarios endogenous to the model
average annual average annual growth average annual average annual
Crop production
growth 0.94 per cent 2.01 per cent growth 2.55 per cent growth 3.05 per cent
Transfer from Transfer from
Land reform subsistence to subsistence to
No land reform No land reform smallholder farms commercial farms
18550 ha available for 18550 ha available for 18550 ha available for 18550 ha available for
New irrigation
TLU stocking De-stocking of TLU by De-stocking of TLU by De-stocking of TLU by De-stocking of TLU by
density 0 per cent 10 per cent 15 per cent 20 per cent
increase TLU increase TLU increase TLU increase TLU
TLU productivity productivity by 0 per productivity by 200 per productivity by 300 productivity by 600
cent cent per cent per cent

Strategy A Strategy B Strategy C Strategy D
No regulation, no Regulation and Regulation and
Fisheries
support Regulation, no support support support
2.9 cropped and
Apiculture no change in hives per woodland hectares per
ha double hives per ha triple hives per ha hive
Urban moderate, rural
Electrification
Urban low, rural zero low Urban high, rural high Urban high, rural high
Water supply Urban low, rural low Urban high, rural low Urban high, rural high Urban high, rural high
Target enrolment rate Target enrolment rate Target enrolment rate Target enrolment rate
of 60 per cent, of 75 per cent, of 83 per cent, of 83 per cent,
Education
student:teacher ratio student:teacher ratio student:teacher ratio student:teacher ratio
of 80 of 60 of 45 of 45
Service level Service level Service level Service level
Health improvement of 150 improvement of 200 improvement of 300 improvement of 300
per cent per cent per cent per cent
low investment: 0 per moderate investment: high investment: 2 per high investment: 2 per
Other
cent over rate of 1 per cent over rate of cent over rate of cent over rate of
construction
growth of population growth of population growth of population growth of population
Target number of Target number of Target number of Target number of
Public
administrators per administrators per administrators per administrators per
administration
1,000 population: 900 1,000 population: 875 1,000 population: 850 1,000 population: 850

The allocation of incremental land to crops or forestry is an
interesting feature of the EROAM model, which “decides”
between the alternative land uses on the basis of opportunity
cost, returning the optimum combination of ha in crops and ha
in forestry required to maximise the objective function of net
value added. Clearly it is important to estimate yields and prices
of crops and forestry correctly for EROAM to be able to do this
accurately. All prices used in the model are expressed in 2005
ETB constant prices. The Phase 1 work (Volume 4, Annex A)
describes the cost estimation carried out, and this was used in
the modelling without modification. The optimum solution for
land allocation under the Master Plan is 851,000 ha of new
plantations and 640,000 ha of new crop land by 2035, totalling
1.5 million ha, or 74% of the additional land available. The
balance of suitable land is unallocated.
B) Production Systems to Land
As described, eight production systems have been allocated to

land cultivated in 2005 according to the proportion each
occupies in the baseline situation (see Annex C Table 2.14).
EROAM gathers the production from each by multiplying its
yield coefficient for each crop group by the proportion of
cultivated area it occupies. In future time periods the proportion
of total cultivated area (baseline area plus new land brought in)
that each production system occupies will change. Without any
purposeful land reorganisation, the proportion of subsistence
farms is likely to increase. With land reorganisation, the area of
subsistence farms is likely to decline, as the smallest farms are
taken in by some other production systems; most likely
smallholder farms, but possibly commercial farms (see the
description of Development Strategies in Section 6). A simple
model within EROAM predicts this change for each DZ and for
three types of land reorganisation. The results for the land
tenure scenario in the Master Plan are shown in Figure 7.6.
Land reorganisation sees the virtual elimination of the
subsistence farm and an expansion of the smallholder farm. The
increase in commercial farming takes place in DZ4 only.
Irrigated farms remain a tiny proportion of the total.
The appropriate yield coefficient for each time period and

production system is multiplied by the revised proportion of

cropped area that each production system is expected to occupy.
The lever for production increases can be significant if there are
strong differences between production coefficients for different
production types.

Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.16: Production types
by land area over time
3,000,000
2,500,000
Com irrig
2,000,000 Small irrig
hectares
Subs irrig
1,500,000 Com. Rf
State rf
1,000,000 Small rf
Subs Rf
500,000
0
2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Source: EROAM_DZ v14.xls
C) Land Use to Land
The EROAM model allocates land use (crop group, fuel wood
plantations and timber plantations) to land through the
optimisation process. It seeks that food demand (rural and
urban) is met in the way which maximises the objective function
by a combination of domestic production or more expensive
imports. If there is surplus production capacity, it may allocate
some production to exports. Note that transfers between DZ are
important, and handled by the transport models.
The drivers for land use change and the take-up of additional
land are the increasing demand for food (food energy demand
will increase by 121% and the composition of food demanded
will also change), the increasing demand for woody biomass (the
demand for timber will increase by 140% but increasing
efficiency and alternative energy sources may drive woody
biomass consumption down by 25% by 2035, despite the
projected 112% increase in population) and productivity
increases (food crop yields are expected to more than double

between 2005 and 2035, and fuelwood plantation yields
increase by 60%).
Figure 7.7 shows the projected changes. The area of cereals,

pulses and oilseeds changes little: this implies that incremental
demand can mostly be accommodated by productivity changes
on the existing area. The areas of vegetables, roots, fruit and
enset are projected to expand, reflecting increasing demand or
lower productivity potential for these crop types. Chat and
coffee areas remain the same (though there are productivity
increases); these are dominantly export crops and there is no
information on the RVLB terms of trade for these crops. An
enormous expansion in plantations will be required to meet
demand. EROAM shows this is feasible if demand can be halved
(e.g. through fuel efficient stoves and alternative energy
sources) and if plantation yields can increased by about 60%. If
not, then there will be unsatisfied demand or increasing
imports.
Figure MASTER PLAN ANALYSIS.17: Crop and

plantation area 2005 and projected to 2035
4,000,000
timber
3,500,000 fuel
3,000,000 coffee
chat
hectares
2,500,000
enset
2,000,000 fruit
root
1,500,000
veg
1,000,000 oilseed
500,000 pulse
cereal
0
2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Source: EROAM_DZ v14.xls
D) Dry Matter to TLU and TLU to Kilocalories

The amount of dry matter and the number of TLUs in the
baseline situation is known (see Annex C Figure 2.5). The
baseline number of kilocalories per TLU is also known. The
tonnage of dry matter will change with land use by time period,
and the number of TLUs will change according to stocking
policy. Since dry matter availability is a constraint to TLU
production in most DZs, we may assume that kilocalorie
production will be affected by a change in dry matter
availability. This relationship is not well known, but modelled by
a sinusoidal curve. If kilocalorie production per TLU rises, the
gross value of production and value added will also increase;
these latter increases are assumed to be in direct proportion,
but there may also be quality improvement, so GVP and value
added per ton on TLU are minimums.
In the baseline situation there are 7.54 million TLU in the

weredas constituting the RVLB, with 2.8 tons of dry matter per
TLU. The food energy produced is 0.09 million kilocalories per
TLU (which varies by DZ depending on the composition of a
TLU). Eliminating DZ7 and DZ8 where dry matter reserves are
high, there are only 2.24 tons per TLU (6.8 million TLU and 15.4
million tons of dry matter). A “normal” (i.e. genetically well
founded) TLU requires 2.2 tons of dry matter per year. Allowing
a margin for waste and access, it is clear that RVLB animals
must be very short of dry matter, even if their maintenance dry
matter requirement is less than 2 tons per annum per TLU.
There are resource availability issues militating against
improving this situation. To increase dry matter availability in
DZs 1 through 6 by 15%, about 300,000 ha of improved fodder
would be required. To change the nature of the dry matter
consumption of stock (say ensuring an additional 15% of cereals
and oilseeds in the diet) would require a commitment of over
500,000 arable ha to animal feed. Neither strategy is possible in
the context of limited land availability and the expected slow
production increases in RVLB.
The principal option considered was therefore de-stocking,

supported with an increase in dry matter production (crop
residues) from the incremental cultivated area. The Master Plan
envisages the reduction of TLU to 6.4 million by 2035, with a dry
matter availability of about 3.24 tons per TLU. The food energy
produced is expected to increase by 48% to 0.13 million

kilocalories per TLU. This leads to an increase in supply from
about 678,600 million kilocalories to 832,000 million
kilocalories.
Livestock production in 2005 was estimated to be about equal to

demand (see Annex C, Table 2.9). However, the demand for
livestock products (expressed in kilocalories) is projected to
increase by 230% during the planning period, to over 2 million
million (2 x 1012) kilocalories. Clearly much greater increases in
TLU productivity are required, but these will be very difficult to
achieve without securing a higher level of dry matter
availability, and improving dry matter quality. For neither option
is there sufficient land available to make the necessary impact.
E) Woody Biomass to Forestry
The principle for allocating the use of woody biomass is simple.

Present demand for fuel wood and timber can be met from the
baseline woody biomass resource and imports. The present
woody biomass resource (including that from existing forestry)
can be estimated from the GIS land use map (see Annex C,
Section 2.6.1). In future time periods it is also possible to bring
in new land, up to its availability (2 million ha) and subject to
the competing demands for additional crop land. The relative
use of existing woody biomass and woody biomass from new
plantations is fixed by assuming a level of loss of the standing
stock under different scenarios, say high, medium and low levels
of loss. Further, we can constrain the loss of woody biomass in a
specific DZ, for example to protect existing forest and game
reserves. Finally, we can regulate the rate of loss permitted by
time period. Because the standing stock is known for each time
period and DZ, the Mean Annual Increment (MAI) can be
calculated. The MAI plus any loss in standing stock is therefore
available to meet demand. Shortfalls in supply must be made up
by the MAI of new plantations, and if that is insufficient, by
imports, or shortfalls in woody biomass consumption. These may
be made up by alternative energy sources such as crop residues
and animal dung.
EROAM suggests that woody biomass production in RVLB could

be a success story. The woody biomass standing stock in 2005
was about 29.5 million tons, with a MAI of 1.6 million tons pa.

Constraints were applied such that no further standing stock
reductions could be permitted in DZs 1, 2, and 3 (there are
forest and game reserves to protect) and only 50% of standing
stock could be lost in other DZs. All MAI could be harvested, but
MAI declines with standing stock, so it would be only 1.1 million
pa by 2035. Baseline demand is about 12.9 million tons pa, but
this is expected to decline to 10.2 million tons by 2035 (despite
the growth in the population) because of the introduction of fuel
efficient stoves and alternative power sources. The exact
situation regarding the present shortfall is not easily explained –
is it real, and is about 7 million tons of woody biomass being
imported annually into RVLB, or is it a matter of unsatisfied
demand, with woody biomass energy being replaced by crop
residues and animal dung? In any event, EROAM out-turn
suggests that new plantations covering about 850,000 ha would
largely eliminate the deficit in the long term.
F) Allocating the Fish Catch
The lake fisheries catch is predetermined by the presence or

absence of short and medium term regulation on catch size, and
any management support offered to the sector. The non-lake
catch cannot be regulated and it is assumed that the catch will
be maintained at baseline levels. It is assumed that lake fish are
predominantly consumed by the urban population and non lake
fish by the rural population. It is straightforward to match a
predetermined catch with increasing food demand, and export
any surpluses.
Baseline catch levels are about 7,000 tons of lake fish and about
750 tons of non-lake fish. It is suggested that only a medium
term moratorium on fishing will halt the long term decline in
lake fish catch, but the supply of non-lake fish is considered to
be self regulating. Fish demand in RVLB is small now and nearly
all the lake catches are exported, but consumption may increase
among urban dwellers with rising incomes. However, the data
suggest that the bulk of the lake fish catch will always be
exported, as prices will be higher outside RVLB. The Master
Plan strategy pre-supposes that the lakes will be maintained at
present levels and fishing will be regulated to ensure catch
sustainability.

G) Allocating Apiculture
The supply of honey and beeswax (expressed in number of hives;

modern, improved and traditional) is limited by a maximum
number of hives per cropped and woodland hectare (the current
maximum is 2.9 hectares per hive in DZ5). We can model
various scenarios to expand this production coefficient
according to the apiculture potential for each DZ. In addition,
the incremental value added from the use of different types of
hives can be modelled, which will increase the productivity as
well as the turnover of the industry. However, modelling supply
and demand together presents problems, as the income
elasticity for demand for honey is not known. In its raw state it
may be expected that it is much smaller than the elasticity of
demand for sugar, which is known. However, the income
elasticity of demand for tej will be high (like all alcoholic
beverages).
The supply of honey was about 2,900 tons in the baseline year
(beeswax production is about 35% of honey, depending on the
type of hives used) and about 900 tons are exported from RVLB
(probably mostly as tej, though no information is available). The
value added from tej has not been calculated though it is
probably significant. It is expected that this general relationship
will continue, but the health of honey production in RVLB will be
very much linked to urban incomes in Addis Ababa.
7.5.5 Rest of the Economy Impact

The performance of the natural resources sector and the growth
of population are the most important drivers for change in the
rest of the economy. The optimisation process in EROAM will
return the best allocation of resources to satisfy the demand for
urban and rural food, while maximising the natural resources
RGDP. The next step is to identify the resource flows that pass
from the agricultural to other sectors of the economy. By far the
most important is the demand of the population for “food
services” i.e. expenditure on food which is over and above the
farm gate price of food raw materials that the farmer receives.
The proportion of expenditure on food services tends to increase
as the total amount spent on food increases. In a developing
economy, the income elasticity of demand for food is very high,
so food service expenditure is a powerful driver for growth in

industry (food processing) and services (trade, distribution and
retailing).
On the assumption of moderate growth in the Ethiopian

economy, it is estimated that expenditure by the urban
population on food services will increase by a factor of 15
between 2005 and 2035, while food service expenditure by the
rural population could increase by about 10 times (see Annex C,
Figures 2.3 and 2.4). Since the population growth is known, the
incremental contribution to GVP can be calculated and
attributed to the sectors and subsectors which will provide these
incremental food services. Taking into account the expected
growth of population, GVP of food services may grow in the
order of 30 times its 2005 level by 2035. This is a powerful lever
on economic performance.
The increase in GVP will be accompanied by changes in

intermediate costs and employment. Since the current economic
structure of the different industries and service enterprises in
RVLB is known (from CSA surveys), it is possible to model the
impact of additional GVP. Modelling can also incorporate
improvements in technical efficiency and labour productivity
over time.
The distribution of incremental food service GVP between

industries and services is not arbitrary – there will be a distinct
growth path in the rest of the economy which will depend
mostly on labour productivity, labour cost and the distribution of
demand (rural versus urban). The resulting distribution of the
labour force between sectors is a good guide to whether or not a
feasible solution has been selected, using such rule of thumb
criteria as one new job in industry creates an additional three in
services.
However, we cannot assume that the rest of the economy will

simply respond to meet incremental demand – investment will
be required to improve transport and communications, storage,
the capacity of the labour force, power and water supply. The
same planning process that was applied to give capacity to the
natural resources sector to meet expected demand has to be
carried out for the rest of the economy. A number of strategies
and scenarios have been analysed, as described in Section 7.5.3.

This required investment will affect the GVP and value added of
different sectors, including health, education, water supply,
electricity, construction, and transport and communications.
Some parts of the economy, such as real estate and ownership of
dwellings, will grow as a function of the growth of population.
Others, like financial intermediation, will grow as a function of
the growth of the economy. All sectors have been analysed using
the framework of GVP, intermediate costs, labour employed,
return to labour and contribution to RGDP. This gives a
standardised and objective measure of economic and sector
performance.
The details of the analysis can be found in Annex C, Section 4.

Discussion of the out-turns can be found in Section 11 below.

8 THE MASTER PLAN
8.1 Policy Framework
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin Master Plan has been prepared
within the framework of the national development objectives
and strategies, as well as the specific national and regional
policies formulated for each sector of the economy. It is,
however, important to emphasise that the overarching goal of
the national development strategy is poverty reduction, to be
achieved through GoE’s Plan for Accelerated and Sustained
Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). PASDEP is being
implemented between 2005/06 and 2009/10. It aims to reduce
poverty by accelerating economic growth and focusing
government investment in pro-poor sectors (e.g. agriculture,
education and health), while maintaining macro-economic
stability and facilitating private sector investment.
In accordance with the PASDEP, and as indicated in the ToR, the

main aim of the study is to prepare a Master Plan which
“contributes towards sustainable development and poverty
reduction in the Basin and makes optimum use of all natural,
physical, human and animal resources with the minimum
environmental impact”. Development goals are therefore likely
to be both regional and sector specific, and the broad aims for
the development of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin will include:
 Increasing regional GDP, employment and household

incomes;
 Maintaining and enhancing the RVLB as a food surplus area
and a producer of cash crops for the domestic and export
markets;
 Utilising natural and human resources for agro-processing
and other related industries;
 Exploiting renewable energy resources within the Basin,
such as hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind etc;
 Diversifying the economic base of the Basin to expand non-
farm income and employment opportunities in both the
urban and rural areas; and

 Improving the management and conservation of the natural
environment to ensure its long term sustainability.
National policies for each development sector have been

formulated on the basis of the PASDEP, and these policies apply
at the regional, zonal and wereda levels. The national policies
also provide the framework for preparing national and regional
programmes for various sectors, while the regional plans and
programmes are tailored to the specific development
opportunities and constraints within each region.
The PASDEP and national sector policies, which were discussed

in Volume 6 (National and Regional Economics and Policy
Framework) of the RVLB Master Plan Study, Phase 1 Report,
therefore provide a clear guide to the key development
objectives, issues and priorities to be taken into account during
the preparation of the Master Plan.
The main objectives of these sector development policies, which

are relevant to the RVLB Master Plan, are summarised in
Section 8.2 below.
8.2 Main Objectives of the Master Plan
8.2.1 Agriculture and Livestock Development

In order to improve land and labour productivity, interventions
are required to (i) encourage the adoption of improved farm
management techniques and (ii) mitigate technical, financial
and marketing constraints to increasing production, thereby
changing from subsistence based farming to market orientated
agriculture.
The specific objectives of the agricultural development policy

are to:
 Strengthen the capacity of human resources through: (i)

comprehensive extension and training programmes for
farmers, and (ii) provision of technical and vocational
training for Development Agents (DAs), and (iii) enhanced
research-extension-farmer linkages;

 Encourage the diversification and commercialisation of
agriculture by: (i) focusing investment in high potential
areas and growth corridors; (ii) provision of support and
technology packages adapted to different agro-ecological
zones;
 Establish effective agricultural marketing systems through:
(i) upgrading and expansion of economic infrastructure
(roads, markets, electricity, telecoms etc); (ii) strengthening
of marketing institutions, development of produce quality
standards and establishment of market information systems;
and (iii) promotion of agricultural exports;
 Improve the provision of farm inputs through: (i) increasing
the production and distribution of improved seeds and
planting material, (ii) strengthening of service co-operatives
in both input supply services and providing an enhanced role
for the private sector;
 Strengthen and expand rural financial services, particularly
with regard to micro-finance for farmers and small
entrepreneurs;
 Expand small scale irrigation/water harvesting and improve
water management;
 Increase animal feed through: (i) introduction of forage
crops and expansion of improved pasture, (ii) improved
rangeland management and fodder conservation, and (iii)
development of processed animal feeds utilising crop by-
products;
 Improve genetic potential of cattle, goats, sheep and poultry
primarily through the selective breeding of indigenous
breeds to enhance meat, milk and egg productivity; and
 Enhance veterinary services through: (i) substantial
expansion and strengthening of facilities and trained staff;
(ii) control of trans-boundary animal diseases; and (iii)
improving the quarantine and inspection services.
8.2.2 Natural Resources Management

During the PASDEP period, the main activities within natural
resources management include the sustainable use of land,
forest, fisheries and wildlife resources. The specific objectives of
these activities are to:

 Extend watershed management interventions using a
participatory approach and strengthen the capacity of
extension staff in watershed management techniques;
 Promote conservation based land resource management to
control soil erosion through the adoption of suitable
structural and biological measures to restore land
productivity;
 Promote and extend tree planting activities by households
and communities;
 Expand honey production through the introduction of
improved beekeeping techniques;
 Increase fish production in a sustainable manner by: (i)
introducing appropriate management of lake fisheries to
ensure a natural balance of the fish populations; (ii)
enforcement of appropriate laws and regulations to reverse
the declining fish stocks; and (iii) expansion of fish
production in lakes and ponds; and
 Conserve wildlife resources through the establishment and
strengthening of protected areas and by creating greater
awareness of conservation issues; and
 Conserve and expand the biodiversity of plant and animal
species.
8.2.3 Food Security

To mitigate the harmful impact of food shortages, the
Government’s food security programme (FSP) focuses on
measures to reduce variability in crop production and food
availability. Two underlying principles guide the implementation
of FSP, namely: (i) to assist farmers in using their own resources
to overcome food insecurity, and (ii) to reduce the dependence
on emergency relief and food aid. The key interventions of the
FSP comprise:
 Building household assets through on-farm activities such as

rainwater harvesting, pond/well construction and small scale
irrigation, as well as enhancing farm productivity through
the adoption of improved husbandry practices;
 Safety net programme to help bridge food gaps and
comprising: (i) labour intensive public works, and (ii) direct
support for labour poor households; and

 Introduction of non-farm activities including: (i)
strengthening of credit services, (ii) establishment of
marketing co-operatives, (iii) provision of training, and (iv)
community level resource development in pastoral areas.
8.2.4 Water Resources Development

The provision of adequate and clean water to the general
population is one of most critical elements of the poverty
reduction strategy. A safe supply of domestic water significantly
improves the health of the population and reduces the burden of
water carrying for women and children. Furthermore, an
increased supply of water is also essential for crop production
and livestock rearing. The main objectives of the national water
sector strategy, within the context of the Master Plan, are:
 Rapid expansion of water supply and provision of potable

water for all households;
 Promotion of irrigation development in an integrated and
sustainable manner;
 Promotion of multi-purpose development of water resources
including hydro-power, irrigation and water supply;
 Building capacity of human resources, particularly at
regional and local levels where implementation is being
undertaken; and
 Provision of improved sanitation facilities in both urban and
rural areas.
Despite recent successes in the provision of potable water, there

still remain considerable challenges. These include: (i)
sustaining operation and maintenance (O&M) of rural water
supply schemes and establishing financially viable urban supply
systems, and (ii) expanding the low coverage of sanitation
facilities.
8.2.5 Industry and Trade

An industrial development strategy was prepared in 2002 to
promote the industrial sector. The main objectives of this
strategy rests are to:
 Promote and support the private sector as the main engine
of industrial development;

 Encourage industrial development which is primarily
focused on: (i) agricultural related industries; (ii) export led
industries; and (iii) labour intensive industries;
 Facilitate partnerships between domestic and foreign
investors;
 Provision of credit (through MFIs) and training to facilitate
the establishment of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) by
urban and rural households;
 Provide a conducive environment for industrial development
which includes macro-economic stability, well regulated
banking/financial sector, strong market competition,
manpower training/capacity building, and an efficient
administration, legal and justice system as well as
investments in economic infrastructure.
8.2.6 Mining
The government strategy to develop mineral resources is
primarily aimed at promoting private investment in the mining
sector. Mining legislation classifies mining activities into large,
small and artisanal enterprises, offering favourable terms to
each type of enterprise and controlling mining operation
through a licensing system. The main objectives of mining
development strategy are to: (i) increase geological mapping for
mineral exploration, (ii) delineate potential mining areas and
produce promotional documents to attract private investors, (iii)
provide training for artisanal miners, (iv) legalise artisanal
mining operations and establish a legal marketing system; and
(v) support and strengthen the expansion of artisanal mining co-
operatives.
8.2.7 Tourism
The Government intends to achieve an expansion of the tourism
sector by providing an enabling environment for the private
sector to establish a balanced and profitable tourist industry.
This will be achieved by expanding economic infrastructure,
reducing bureaucracy, eliminating supply barriers to hotels,
transport and tour operators, and providing better investment
incentives for both domestic and international investors. To
enhance poverty impact, the strategy will also ensure that local
communities are an integral part of tourism development.

8.2.8 Private Sector Development
In an effort to encourage private investment and to create a
more favourable environment for the establishment and
expansion of commercial enterprises, the Government aims to:
 Streamline business regulations and licensing procedures as

well as improving labour regulations and telecommunication
services;
 Remove regulatory and operational obstacles to the export
and import of goods;
 Facilitate more competitive market conditions particularly
within the agricultural sector;
 Strengthen and liberalise the financial sector;
 Improve urban land lease markets to increase the availability
of land for industry;
 Develop serviced industrial estates in urban areas for
medium scale enterprises;
 Provide business development training services;
 Improve the supply of skilled manpower via the TVET
programme; and
 Enhance the provision of public utilities such as electricity
and water.
The Government is now committed to speeding up the

privatisation programme based on a transparent and
competitive bidding process.
8.2.9 Export Sector Development

Equally important is the diversification of exports to reduce
reliance on traditional exports. Exports are being encouraged
through an export credit guarantee scheme, and various other
measures such as removal of most export prices controls and
export duties, simplification of export licensing procedures,
liberalised exchange rate mechanism, and strengthening of
institutional support to exporters. In order to enhance
competitiveness in the international market and increase export
earnings, the export development strategy aims to:
 Increase productivity of agricultural exports through

research, extension/training etc;

 Strengthen the programmes designed to increase the
production and quality of manufactured products, e.g.
textiles, garments and leather products;
 Encourage the further development of the cut flower
industry and other high value horticultural crops by
attracting more private investors; and
 Facilitate the provision of land for the expansion of
manufactured export commodities.

As road transport is the dominant mode of transportation, the
success of the poverty reduction strategy (and of economic
development in general) critically depends on the expansion and
improvement of the road network. The Government’s road and
transport policy has been formulated to alleviate rural poverty
by improving the accessibility of rural communities to markets
and public services. The primary aims of the road programme
are to: (i) expand the road network and provide a sustainable
level of essential road infrastructure to the rural population, (ii)
develop a strong managerial and technical capacity to manage
and maintain the road network, and (iii) expand the capacity of
the local road construction industry.
8.2.11 Electricity and Telecommunications

Electricity is essential both as an input into a rapidly developing
economy, but also critical to the social and economic
development in the rural areas. The Government is therefore
implementing a large scale rural electrification programme
which aims to reach about 50% of the population during the
PASDEP period. The main interventions include: (i) construction
of hydro-power stations; and (ii) installation of transmission
grids and distribution sub-stations to provide power to towns
and rural areas as well as neighbouring countries for the export
of electricity. In addition, the private sector, local communities
and co-operatives will participate in off-grid transmission,
distribution and sale of electricity in rural areas.
Expansion of the telecommunications network is a key

component of general economic development, and is critical to
the commercialisation of the rural economy. Over the past five
years, significant progress has been made with regard to the

establishment of a basic multimedia backbone to facilitate the
widespread use of information and communications technology
(ICT). The broad strategy is for the telecommunications
infrastructure to remain under government ownership, while the
private sector will become increasingly involved in the provision
of services such as mobile telephone and internet services.
8.2.12 Urban Development

Although the focus of the poverty reduction strategy will remain
rural based, the urban sector will play a more central role in the
next stage of Ethiopia’s development. In addition to providing
an increasing market demand for agricultural produce, the
growing urban population will also supply products and services
to the rural sector. With rapid economic growth, the towns will
also provide increasing income and employment opportunities
for the people migrating from the overpopulated rural areas.
The main aims of the National Urban Development Policy (2005)
are to:
 Provide efficient and effective public services to the urban

population,
 Create income and employment opportunities for MSEs, and
 Facilitate rural development.
The urban development strategy therefore comprises the

following key elements: (i) support for micro and small
enterprises (MSEs) and job creation:, (ii) integrated housing
development and improved access to land, infrastructure and
services, (iii) promotion of urban-rural linkages, and (iv)
strengthening of urban governance.
8.2.13 Education and Training

Recognising the vital role that education plays in poverty
reduction and sustainable development, the Government
adopted a new Education and Training Policy (ETP). The policy
focuses on expanding access to educational opportunities which
are directly relevant to the skills and expertise required for
accelerated economic and social development. In order to meet
these targets, substantial resources are made available to:

 Expand education coverage at primary, secondary and
tertiary levels and increase the role of non-formal education;
 Expand existing facilities and provide textbooks/resource
materials;
 Construct new schools and TVET/higher education
institutions;
 Train and deploy new teachers, develop syllabi/curricula,
and improve quality assessment mechanisms;
 Strengthen the capacity of weredas and local communities to
administer primary and secondary schools in order to
improve responsiveness and accountability; and
 Increase female participation in education and help children
with special needs.
8.2.14 Health Care

The Government places a very high priority on significantly
improving health care and is implementing a health policy based
on the following main principles:
 Democratisation and decentralisation of the health care

system;
 Strong focus on the health promotion and disease
preventive;
 Assured accessibility to health care for the whole population;
 Development of appropriate capacity based on needs
assessment;
 Promotion of private sector and NGO participation in the
provision of health care; and
 Strengthening of inter-sectoral activities through a national
self-reliance programme.
Despite the considerable progress made in recent years, health

care coverage still remains inadequate and the quality of the
service is variable, particularly in rural areas. Under the Health
Sector Development Programme (HSDP), primary health care
and preventative services will continue to be the main focus of
the programme with increasing priority being given to: (i)
extending services to communities which have yet to be
reached, and (ii) improving the effectiveness of the services
particularly with respect to staffing issues and the availability of
drugs.

8.2.15 Cross Cutting Issues: Population, Gender and Environment
Recognising that rapid population growth has to be reduced if
sustainable economic development and poverty reduction are to
be achieved, the Ethiopian government adopted the National
Population Policy in 1993. The major aim is stated as
“harmonisation of the population growth and the capacity of
Ethiopia for the development and rational utilisation of natural
resources, thereby creating conditions conducive to the
improvement of the level of welfare of the population”. The
specific objectives of the policy include:
 Reducing total fertility rate from 5.7 to 4.0 births per woman
by 2015;
 Increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate to 60%;
 Reducing maternal, infant and child mortality rates as well
as improving the general level of welfare of the population;
 Significantly increasing female participation at all levels of
the educational system;
 Removing all legal and customary practices militating
against the economic and social rights of women, including
property rights and employment;
 Improving agricultural productivity and introducing off-farm
activities to diversify employment opportunities;
 Conducting an effective education programme to promote
small family size; and
 Using formal and informal media to facilitate education in
health and family planning.
Unleashing the potential of Ethiopian women is also central to

the PASDEP strategy. As women are playing a critical role in the
social and economic development of the country, particularly in
the rural areas, it is essential these inequalities are reduced and
eventually eliminated. For these reasons, improving the
livelihoods and status of Ethiopian women is fundamental to a
poverty reduction strategy. In recognition of the wide gender
disparities that exist within Ethiopia, the Government has
enacted constitutional and policy measures to ensure gender
equality at all levels. The policy is expected to serve as an
instrument for ensuring the rights of women to benefit fully
from their labour and expertise on equal terms with men. In

addition, safeguarding rights such as access to land, credit and
other productive resources forms a critical part of the policy.
Environmental considerations are clearly of critical significance

in the planning and development of rural economy. The
Environmental Policy of Ethiopia (EPE), which was approved in
1997, is fully integrated and compatible with PASDEP and other
key national policies. The overall objective of the EPE is the
promotion of sustainable social and economic development
through the adoption of sound environmental management
principles. The priority interventions are: (i) expansion of
current efforts to address the critical issues of land degradation,
deforestation and overgrazing; (ii) strengthening of regulatory
and institutional capacity; (iii) enhancing measures to ensure
the sustainable management of natural resources; (iv)
promoting community-led environmental protection; and (v)
preventing environmental pollution and managing municipal
waste.
8.3 Development Indicators and Proposed Targets
The quantitative targets to be achieved during the Master Plan

period have been established for the Basin economy as well as
for each development sector. Specific targets, which are outlined
in Table 8.1 below, were identified for the short, medium and
long term implementation phases.

Table THE MASTER PLAN.44: Development indicators and proposed targets during the master
plan period
Basin economy and development Indicative targets during master plan period
sectors Baseline Short term Medium Long term
year (2010 to term (2025 to
(2008) 2015) (2016 to 2034)
2024)
1. Basin Economy
Economic Growth
Annual GDP growth rate (%) 7% 5% to 7% 5% to 7% 5% to 7%
Economic Diversification
Agriculture as % of GDP 69% 58% 47% 36%
Industry as % of GDP 8% 10% 12% 13%
Services as % of GDP 23% 32% 41% 51%
Employment
% Population employed in agriculture 74% 62% 50% 38%
% Population employed in industry 7% 12% 17% 23%
% Population employed in services 19% 26% 33% 39%
Poverty and Food Security
Poverty Incidence: % population below
55% 35% 25% 15%
income poverty line
Proportion of kcal requirement met by
92% 98% 104% 104%
production in RVLB
Employment Rate: % population
75% 84% 85% 94%
employed
2. Development Sectors
A. Water Resources
Irrigation: irrigated area (ha) 30,100 31,475 41,235 46,430
Access to Clean Water Supply: % rural
42% 51% 71% 95%
population
% urban 77% 98% 100% 100%

(2008) 2015) (2016 to 2034)
2024)
population
% overall
45% 56% 75% 96%
population
B. Agriculture and Livestock
Agricultural Growth: annual growth (%) 3.5% 3% to 4% 3% to 4% 3% to 4%
Food crop production (tonnes) 4,170,702 5,831,734 8,004,208 11,510,505
Food crop area (hectares) 1,741,193 1,897,230 2,163,739 2,357,746
Food crop productivity (tonne/ha) 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.9
Livestock numbers (TLUs) 7,468,988 7,324,943 7,098,606 6,403,518
Livestock productivity (m. kcal/TLU) 0.094 0.196 0.207 0.245
C. Natural Resources
Forestry: woodlots and plantations (ha) 356,959 796,567 934,728 956,106
Fisheries: fish production (tonnes) 4,604 6,150 14,048 20,160
Apiculture: honey production (tonnes) 2,867 5,943 7,435 7,580
D. Industry/Commerce, Mining &
Tourism
Industry and Commerce: annual growth
11% 7% to 9% 7% to 9% 7% to 9%
(%)
E. Economic Infrastructure
Total Roads (km) 4,843 5,100 5,384 5,673
Road Density (km of road per 1000
107 113 119 125
sq.km)
Road Density (km of road per 1000
0.57 0.47 0.36 0.25
people)
Access to Electricity (% of population
6% 9% 18% 26%
with electricity)

(2008) 2015) (2016 to 2034)
2024)
Access to Telecommunications within
20% 40% 60% 75%
5km (% population)
Primary Education: enrolment rate (%) 58% 58% 70% 80%
Student:teacher ratio 70:1 65:1 60:1 51:1
Number of teachers employed 34,529 52,866 76,974 127,630
Number of hospitals/health clinics 661 1,056 1,495 2,227
Number of health workers employed 4,120 6,581 9,316 13,875
Health workers per 1000 people 0.24 0.30 0.37 0.48

Indicative targets for poverty incidence and food security were
based on the PASDEP targets and Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs), e.g. percentage of the population below the
poverty line to be halved by 2015. It is therefore anticipated that
poverty incidence in the RVLB will fall from 50% in 2008 to 35%
in 2015 and 15% in 2035. The projected economic growth rates
of 3% to 4% for agriculture and 7% to 9% for industry and
services are needed to achieve this fall in poverty incidence.
Changes in the structure of the Basin economy, e.g. decline in
the agricultural sector’s contribution to GDP and employment,
also reflects the expected levels of economic growth and poverty
reduction between 2008 and 2035. Agriculture’s contribution to
GDP is anticipated to fall from 69% to 36%, while the
contribution of the industrial and service sectors is expected to
increase from 31% to 64%. Similarly, the proportion of the
population employed in the agricultural sector is projected to
fall from 74% to 38% with a corresponding rise in employment
in the industrial and service sectors.
The indicative targets set for the health indicators, i.e. access to
health care facilities, are also derived from the PASDEP targets.
For example, both the Master Plan and PASDEP targets indicate
that access to primary health care is anticipated to increase to
100% by 2015. Similarly, Master Plan targets indicate that the
proportion of the population in RVLB with access to clean water
will increase to 56% by 2015 and 96% in 2035 in the Master
Plan. Furthermore, a rapid growth in primary education is also
envisaged in both PASDEP and the Master Plan, to provide
universal coverage by 2015; this is also an MDG.
These targets will provide the key objectively verifiable
indicators to monitor the progress of the Master Plan, as well as
to evaluate its overall economic, social and environmental
impact using appropriate monitoring and evaluation techniques.
However, during Master Plan implementation, a wide range of
more detailed indicators/targets would be used in the
monitoring and evaluation of the specific projects and
programmes within each development sector.
It should be noted in Table 8.1 that in road network expansion,

the km per capita declines over the MP period. This is because
of population growth, not a reduction in roads.

8.4 Planning Horizon
The terms of reference specify that the Master Plan “should

cover 25 years although long term activities may extend beyond
that date”. The time frame has therefore been divided into three
phases, i.e. short term of 5 years (Years 1 to 5), medium term of
10 years (Years 6 to 15) and long-term of 10 years (Years 16 to
25). The Master Plan therefore extends over a period of 25
years. The proposed implementation of the Master Plan is
therefore scheduled as follows:
Short Term 5 years (years 1- 2010 –

5) 2014
Medium 10 years (years 6 – 2015 –
Term 15) 2024
Long Term 10 years (years 16 2025 –
– 25) 2034
Prior to 2010, the proposed Master Plan projects will be

reviewed and then incorporated into the regional programmes of
SNNPRS and Oromiya. The short term period (2010 - 2014) is
the first implementation phase; it comprises various studies and
the initiation of short and long term investment projects. During
this initial period, the proposed Master Plan interventions will
be prepared in greater detail prior to implementation.
Appropriate programmes and projects cannot realistically be
foreseen beyond a period of 25 years, so it is assumed that all
proposed Master Plan investments will made before 2035, i.e. in
the medium-term (2015 - 2024) and long-term (2025 - 2034).
8.5 RVLB Integrated Development Strategy
8.5.1 Introduction
Development programme and projects, as part of an RVLB
Integrated Master Plan, are needed to increase livelihood
opportunities in the Basin as well as to meet growing food and

energy requirements of the rapidly expanding urban and rural
populations.
Between 2005 and 2035, the urban population in the Basin is

projected to increase from 13% of the total population to 30%,
i.e. from 1.26 million to 5.56 million (see Section 7.2, Population
Projections). As the rural economy will not be able to meet the
growing demands for income and employment opportunities, the
rapid expansion of the urban economy through economic
diversification will be crucial to achieving the economic growth
and poverty reduction targets envisaged in Table 8.1.
The development of the urban economy is, however, a major

challenge. Firstly, a suitable economic environment is required
to attract investment and facilitate an expansion of livelihood
and employment opportunities. Secondly, there needs to be a
substantial improvement in urban infrastructure and services.
Consequently, both private and public investment is urgently
required to establish and sustain the urban economy at an
adequate rate of development. Furthermore, rapid urbanisation
will also require appropriate institutional strengthening and
capacity building, supported by sufficient budgetary resources.
Expansion in the urban economy will however increase market
demand for agricultural produce, and consequently be the main
driver of economic development within the rural areas.
The economic linkages between urbanisation and rural

development are very strong, and the successful development of
both sectors is closely interrelated. This is particularly true for
the type of agricultural based economies that exist in the Rift
Valley Lakes Basin. The rural areas must be able to provide the
food, fodder and fuel resources necessary to meet the
requirements of the expanding towns. The agricultural sector
also needs to provide the raw materials and labour required for
the expansion of industrial development through the processing
and marketing of agricultural surpluses. With increased incomes
in the rural areas due to improved agricultural production and
productivity, there will also be a growth in the demand there for
the products and services offered by the urban sector.
Sustainable urban and rural development in the Basin are
therefore interdependent. The capacity of the rural sector to
meet the urban and industrial demands is also directly related to

the potential of the agricultural sector to increase productivity
significantly, and to generate substantial agricultural surpluses.
From the population projections, it is evident that the Basin will

remain predominantly rural in nature during the Master Plan
period, even if there is rapid urbanisation. The Basin will
therefore need to accommodate an increasing rural population,
as well as provide food and other resources to the growing
urban economy. The pressures on the agricultural sector will
therefore be substantial. To produce significant agricultural
surpluses in the context of a rapidly expanding rural population
will clearly be a major challenge; it can only be achieved by a
balanced development strategy, that is focused on the expansion
of income and employment opportunities in both the urban and
rural economies.
Historically, in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, increases in rural

population have largely been absorbed through an expansion of
the cultivated area. The development of the urban and non-farm
rural sectors as alternative sources of employment has therefore
been gradual. Based on the land suitability assessment, it is
estimated that a further 0.62 million hectares of suitable land is
available for food crop production (both rainfed and irrigated);
this area is mainly limited to four southern development zones,
i.e. DZs 5, 6, 7 and 8. Further expansion of the food crop area is
very limited in DZs 1, 2, 3 and 4. Moreover, the existing area of
cultivated land in the highlands is slowly declining due to land
degradation, particularly in DZ 1 and DZ 3.
It is therefore evident that the increasing rural population is

placing even greater demands on a deteriorating natural
resource base. This is resulting in a rural economy which is, at
best, only maintaining the low levels of income. Improvements in
agricultural productivity and rural incomes will help to reduce
poverty but, in the medium to long term, a significant decline in
poverty will only be realised through a rapid increase in
employment opportunities in the industrial and service sectors.
This in turn can only be achieved through a strategy of economic
diversification. However, to ensure that future development is
sustainable, the environmental and social impact of economic
growth also needs to be taken into account and, if necessary,
mitigation measures should be implemented.

The development strategies considered appropriate for the
sustainable and integrated development of the Rift Valley Lakes
Basin can be broadly divided into the following six components:
 Agricultural Development;
 Water Resource Development;
 Conservation of Natural Resources;
 Economic Diversification;
 Economic Infrastructure and Improved Public Services; and
 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building.
These components are described in the following sections.
8.5.2 Agricultural Development

One of the main causes of poverty in the Basin is the low level of
agricultural productivity. Smallholder crop and livestock
production is primarily subsistence based, with little commercial
production. Agricultural intensification is urgently needed to
break the vicious cycle of poverty that prevails in the Basin. The
MP strategy is therefore focused on the development of the
existing agricultural production systems, in order to improve
farm incomes and food security.
Increased agricultural productivity and diversified cropping will

provide food for expanding populations and raw materials for
growing industries, as well as releasing labour for the
development of the urban sector. The opportunities for the
intensification of both crop and livestock systems (including
apiculture) are substantial and the improved farm management
practices are well known. However, agricultural development in
the Basin faces a number of obstacles including: (i) unreliable
rainfall, (ii) inadequate availability of farm inputs and limited
access to credit; (iii) basic lack of knowledge and skills; (iv)
small farm size and competition for land; (v) poor transport and
market infrastructure; and (vi) land tenure insecurity.
Improved Smallholder Farming Systems: The potential for

agricultural intensification varies considerably between farming
systems. The systems with the greatest potential are the cereal
based mixed farming systems in the highlands and lowlands, in

which crop and livestock production could double. There is also
scope to increase productivity significantly in the agro-pastoral
areas (with the adoption of better dryland cropping practices) as
well as the enset/coffee complex in the highlands (with improved
varieties and cultural practises). In the pastoral areas, livestock
productivity could also be substantially enhanced through
improved animal health and nutrition, as well as better
rangeland management.
Large Scale Farming: Large scale, commercial farming could

play an important role in the production of food surpluses in the
Basin. However, the involvement of the private sector in
commercial agriculture would require changes in the enabling
policy and institutional environment. Private investors would
need security of tenure, unrestricted access to machinery and
agro-chemicals imports, access to export markets, and a tax
structure which permits an adequate return on investment.
Crop Diversification: Agricultural development will include

diversification into cash crops for both the domestic and export
markets. Cash crops include coffee, chat, oilseeds, pulses,
vegetables, fruit and cotton. These cash crops could also be
directly linked to agro-processing facilities, to add value to the
products. This would be in line with the government’s
agricultural led industrialisation strategy (ADLI).
Agricultural Support Services: Improved agricultural support

services would be a key feature of the agricultural development
strategy. These support services would include: (i) provision of
farmer training and extension, (ii) supply of improved seeds,
fertilisers and pesticides, (iv) veterinary care, (v) supply of
livestock feed, and (vi) access to credit. The government will
play a leading role in the provision of support services, such as
training and extension, but farmer co-operatives and the private
sector will increasingly take over the role of government
particularly with respect to input supply, veterinary care, and
the provision of credit as the agricultural sector grows.
Processing and Marketing: Better processing, transport and

marketing facilities/services, would also be required to facilitate
the production of agricultural surpluses. The provision of market
infrastructure and market regulation would mainly be the

responsibility of government, but processing, transport, storage
and marketing activities would be undertaken by farmers’ co-
operatives and the private sector.
8.5.3 Water Resources Development

This strategy is focused on the development of water resources
within the Basin with the provision of water for domestic and
industrial purposes being given high priority in both urban and
rural areas. Expansion of irrigated agriculture and improved
systems of water supply for livestock will also make a significant
contribution to agricultural production. The main objective of
this strategy is to overcome the limitations imposed on
economic development by water shortages and drought. There
are also limited opportunities for hydropower; these are mainly
linked to irrigation development.
Irrigation: The main opportunities for irrigation development

are located in the DZ 2 and DZ 6. During Phase 1, eleven
medium and large scale schemes were identified with a total
irrigated area of around 40,000 ha. With the limited water
resources available for irrigation development within RVLB
(approximately 18,000 ha), the most viable of these schemes
would therefore be selected for implementation from the range
of alternative options. Two irrigation projects, i.e. Lower Segen
(7,000 ha) and Sego River (4,000 ha) have been studied to
prefeasibility level.
These projects could be developed for smallholders and/or large

private companies. Small farmers would produce a combination
of subsistence food crops and cash crops, while commercial
farms would focus on cash crops such as cotton, sugarcane,
vegetables and fruit, which would be linked to agro-processing
facilities. In addition, there are numerous small scale and
traditional irrigation projects, totalling approximately 6,000 ha,
which are gradually being developed by local communities.
There is also potential to develop irrigated agriculture in agro-
pastoral areas, using water harvesting or spate irrigation
techniques.
As noted in Section 7.4, improving the hydrometric network and

the system of monitoring and data management is an important
investment for the MoWR to make. Water management will

become more and more critical as the implementation of the
Master Plan progresses.
Water Supply and Sanitation: The majority of the population in

the Basin do not have access to adequate supplies of clean
water. In order to provide full coverage throughout RVLB by the
end of the Master Plan period, there would have to be a very
substantial expansion of water supply infrastructure and
facilities in both urban and rural areas. To meet the demand for
clean water, priority will be given to towns with critical water
shortages. Five priority water supply projects have been
identified for implementation and two projects, e.g. Water
Supply for Yerga Alem Town and Water Supply for Adami Tulu
and Ziway Town, have been prepared to prefeasibility study
level. Future water supply programmes will also encourage
greater involvement of local communities in operation and
maintenance of the schemes.
In addition, a sanitation programme will be implemented to

meet the needs of the urban and rural populations. For towns
with a population in excess of 25,000 people, full sanitation and
wastewater disposal facilities will be provided. For smaller
towns and rural areas, emphasis would be given to awareness
creation and hygiene education. The construction of sanitary
facilities, such as traditional pit latrines, VIP pit latrines, at both
household and community levels, would also be undertaken by
beneficiaries with technical support from water and health
officials.
8.5.4 Conservation of Natural Resources

The natural resource base is under threat from deforestation
and land degradation in many highland areas of RVLB,
especially in DZ 3 and DZ4. Interventions are therefore
urgently needed to maintain soil fertility and restore woody
biomass. These interventions will focus on the mitigation of
deforestation and land degradation through soil conservation
and watershed management. Emphasis will also been given to
the conservation of natural resources such as forests, fisheries
and wildlife. Environmental mitigation measures would also be
required to reduce agricultural and industrial pollution,
particularly in the mining and coffee growing areas.

Soil and Water Conservation: It is very important that land
degradation in the most vulnerable areas of the RVLB highlands
is mitigated by the implementation of effective and sustainable
soil and water conservation measures. This will not only reverse
the decline in agricultural productivity, but also reduce the
sediment load in rivers and reservoirs. The mitigation measures
recommended for effective soil erosion control will comprise
both structural approaches (e.g. terracing, bunding, gully
plugging etc) and non-structural approaches (grass strips etc).
Forestry and Agro-forestry: Afforestation and area closure, as

well as agro-forestry, are also effective ways of reducing land
degradation, and should also be included in watershed
management programmes. These programmes would be based
on a participatory water management approach and would
combine soil and water conservation measures with components
covering forestry/agro-forestry, crop intensification and
diversification of rural livelihoods. In addition, providing farmers
with more secure land tenure will encourage them to adopt soil
conservation measures and improve land management
practices.
With regard to conservation and expansion of existing forest

resources, the following interventions are proposed: (i)
promotion of agro-forestry and community plantations, (ii)
sustainable management of natural forests and woodlands, (iii)
development of industrial forestry and peri-urban plantations,
and (iv) natural gum production and marketing.
Fisheries: The lake fisheries resources in the Basin are

sufficient, but far more emphasis needs to given to the
development of a productive and sustainable fisheries industry
through the enforcement of regulatory mechanisms. Fish
handling, storage and distribution facilities need to be improved
to enhance fish quality and reduce wastage. There is also scope
for aquaculture development to expand fish output.
Wildlife Conservation: The Basin is endowed with a rich

ecological diversity, but deforestation as well as lack of
community involvement and poor management of protected
areas threatens the ecological balance and sustainability of the

wildlife resources. To conserve this natural heritage, a number
of measures are proposed including: (i) rehabilitation of
protected areas such as national parks and game reserves; (ii)
formulation of a wildlife conservation strategy; (iii) facilitate
private sector investment in wildlife conservation.
Energy Conservation: There should also be a concerted effort to

lower the consumption of fuelwood significantly through: (i)
urban and rural electrification (both on and off grid), and (ii)
promotion efficient wood burning stoves; and (iii) promotion of
efficient charcoal technologies. These proposed programmes
would reduce the demand for fuelwood, lower the labour
required for fuelwood collection by women, and reduce CO2
emissions.
8.5.5 Economic Diversification

To reduce poverty and provide sustainable employment
opportunities for a rapidly growing population, economic
diversification is not only vital but is the key to rapid economic
and social development in the Basin. Greater priority should
therefore be placed on the development of
industrial/commercial activities, urbanisation and expansion of
the private sector to create income opportunities. Focus on
these areas will help to reduce the proportion of the population
dependent on agriculture. Natural resource based industrial
development, together with an expansion of the mining and
tourism subsectors, would be the cornerstone of this strategy in
the short and medium term.
Emphasis would also be given to MSE development through

training and micro-credit. Industrial growth will be driven by the
private sector, but the government will also play a crucial role
by providing adequate public infrastructure/services and a
sound economic environment to attract private investment to
the Basin from both domestic and foreign sources. In addition,
to ensure that economic development is sustainable, it is
important that measures are implemented to mitigate any
adverse social and environmental consequences, e.g. industrial
pollution.
Industry and Commerce: There is considerable potential for

investment in natural resource based industrial enterprises in

line with the government’s ADLI strategy. These enterprises
would not only contribute to increased employment, but will also
provide a market for crop, livestock, fish and forest produce.
Furthermore, natural resource based industries generate
livelihood and employment opportunities in other sectors,
particularly the informal sector, through backward and forward
linkages. Depending on the type of enterprise, it is estimated
that between 2 to 3 jobs are generated in the informal sector for
one formal job in industry.
There is a wide range of natural resource based industrial

enterprises which could be further developed in the Basin
including grain/flour milling, coffee processing, oil milling,
brewing, textile/garment manufacture and vegetable/fruit
processing,. Given the substantial livestock resources in the
Basin, emphasis should also be given to meat and milk
processing, as well as a wide range of leather enterprises
including footwear manufacture. There is also scope for the
further development of forest based industries including timber
processing, furniture manufacture, gum/incense processing and
honey making. Fish processing enterprises could also be
introduced to add value to fish production.
In the long term, industrial enterprises will have to become

more diverse and less dependant on the supply of raw materials
from agriculture, forestry and fisheries. This will ensure that
rapid economic growth is maintained, and greater employment
opportunities are created within the Basin. Non-agricultural
based industries would include metalwork, engineering,
machine manufacture, chemical, ceramics, plastic products and
household goods. These industries would reduce reliance on
imported goods, and provide an opportunity to increase labour
productivity and incomes. To facilitate further industrialisation,
greater emphasis would have to be given to enhancing
technical, managerial and business skills significantly through
the TVETS programme, and to providing efficient public
services, e.g. transport, electricity, telecommunications, health
and education.
Mining: Mineral resources in the Basin include soda ash,

diatomite and bentonite in sufficient quantities and quality for
economic exploitation, but mining activities are not well

developed. Consequently, there is scope for private mining
enterprises to exploit these resources in order to supply the
minerals to both the domestic and export markets. More
immediate goals are to explore and assess the Basin’s mineral
potential, and to develop a strong and sustainable mining
industry which incorporates measures to mitigate adverse social
and environmental impacts.
There are also artisanal miners involved in the mining of

gemstones, kaolin and construction related material. Small scale
mining is important, but artisanal miners need technical
assistance to improve their income and ensure a sustainable
livelihood.
Tourism: There is potential for tourism to play a valuable role in

the economic development of the Basin. With a diverse natural
and cultural heritage, RVLB could become an important tourist
destination in Ethiopia. It also has the advantage of being close
to Addis Ababa and Bole International Airport as well as being
on the main tourist route between Kenya and Northern Ethiopia.
Activities would include eco-tourism, heritage/cultural tourism
and recreational tourism, e.g. trekking, boating, fishing etc.
Local communities would also benefit from the provision of
services and sales of handicrafts. There is, however, a need to
improve tourist facilities and services significantly, in order to
attract a significant number of foreign and local tourists.
MSE Development: The rapid development of micro and small

enterprises (MSEs), through micro-credit programmes is also
critical to the economic diversification strategy as the industrial
and commercial sectors begin to emerge. MSE would not only
be involved in manufacturing, construction and agro-industries,
but would also make a major contribution in the service sector,
e.g. shops, restaurants, boutiques, transport, tourism etc. MSE
development will have a strong poverty focus, and is essential
for the expansion of livelihood and employment opportunities in
both the urban and non-farm rural sectors.
Urban Development: Economic diversification would also be

combined with planned urban development, in which adequate
infrastructure and services, e.g. houses, shops, roads, water
supply, electricity, health and education facilities, are made

available to the people migrating from the rural areas. This
would avoid the undesirable consequences of a large proportion
of the urban population living in crowded slums with very few
facilities.
Private Sector: In the long term, the private sector will be the
major driving force behind economic diversification and urban
development. It is therefore the Government’s responsibility to
provide a positive enabling environment to attract private
investors. The measures required include favourable policies
and regulations, a sound financial and legal framework, good
education and health services, together with dependable
economic infrastructure, e.g. roads, transport,
telecommunications etc (see below).
8.5.6 Economic Infrastructure and Improved Public Services

The development strategies discussed above are critically
dependant on very significant improvements to the existing
economic and social infrastructure and services within the
Basin. Infrastructure development is required in all sectors
including roads, transport, markets, telecommunications, water
supply, sanitation, electricity, health and education facilities.
Roads and Transport: A good road network is essential for the

economic development of the Basin and, over the past 10 years,
considerable progress has been made in road construction.
Nevertheless, substantial resources are still required for the
upgrading of the Basin’s road infrastructure to all weather or
asphalt standard. In addition to providing access to markets and
agro-industries, roads also facilitate the movement of people
and services to assist development in the rural areas. Roads are
therefore a pre-requisite to agricultural intensification and
economic diversification. A number of trunk roads, link roads
and rural roads have been identified as priority projects for
upgrading during the Master Plan period. In conjunction with
upgrading road infrastructure, improved maintenance of the
road network and planning and management of transport
services in the Basin are necessary.
Market Infrastructure: At key locations in the Basin, market

infrastructure requires substantial upgrading with respect to
market stalls, storage facilities, loading/unloading areas, and

other public facilities. This would be combined with improved
management of urban and rural markets which would be
undertaken by local communities.
Telecommunications: Modern forms of information and

communications technology (ICT), e.g. telephone (fixed and
mobile) and internet services are vital for social and economic
development, through the dissemination of information and
ideas. ICT is needed to facilitate entrepreneurial activity as well
as for the efficient provision of public services, such as health,
education and agricultural support. Information also empowers
individuals and communities in the context of their political and
social development. Some progress has been made over the past
10 years, but a significant expansion in ICT coverage is urgently
required, particularly in the rural areas.
Energy and Electrical Power: The majority of the Basin’s

population are currently dependent on biomass sources to meet
their energy requirements. To facilitate economic diversification
and reduce poverty, it is therefore critical that alternative
sources of energy are developed. This will also help to reduce
the pressures on the natural environment. These sources of
energy include hydro, geothermal, solar and wind power. The
development of these sources to provide electricity in the urban
and rural areas will make a very significant contribution to
Basin’s economic and social development. In addition, there also
needs to be a major expansion of the electricity transmission
network in the Basin (both on and off grid) to enable these
sources of power to meet the rapidly increasing demand for
electricity.
Education Facilities: Economic diversification and agricultural

development in the Basin will require a marked improvement in
education services available in the Basin. This will help to
ensure that local people have the necessary training and skills
and so are also able to respond to the challenges of future
economic development. The continued upgrading and
modernisation of education facilities, as well as improvements in
teacher : student ratios and teaching quality, are therefore
essential. In the medium to long term, the benefits of education
will come from programmes which will significantly enhance the
completion rate for primary and secondary schools.

To improve livelihoods and widen employment opportunities, it
is vital that future generations have the necessary technical and
managerial skills to enable them to adapt to a more diversified
economy. Tertiary education must therefore be given a very high
priority, to meet the challenges of development as well as to
prepare the population for future economic and social changes.
Health Services: A healthy population is a prerequisite for

economic and social development and should therefore be given
high priority. This not only includes access to curative health
care facilities, but also investment in preventative measures,
such as training in health care, nutrition and family planning,
improved access to clean water and better food security. Health
care programmes will comprise: (i) development of health
facilities and services in both urban and rural areas; (ii)
expansion of family health and planning services; and (iii)
combating HIV/AIDS.
8.5.7 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building

Government Institutions: To provide the necessary support that
will enable people to respond to the creation of new economic
opportunities and to adapt to a changing economic and social
environment, the present government institutions will need
significant restructuring and strengthening. Government
institutions at all levels need to be accessible, capable of
implementing their mandate, and respected by the people.
Decentralisation has yet to become fully effective, and many
agencies are still in the process of adjusting to the devolution of
responsibilities to regional states and weredas.
Farmers Cooperatives: In many parts of the world, farmers’ co-

operatives and other associations are successfully providing
various support services to farmers including the marketing of
farm produce. In addition to supplying farm inputs, farmers’ co-
operatives can also provide storage facilities, credit services and
market information; they can also facilitate processing
packaging, transport and marketing. Co-operatives should be
established as independent, legal entities under the democratic
control and management of members with government only
providing a supporting role.

Participatory Development: The participation and active
involvement of individuals and communities in the development
process is critical to the success of development programmes,
and consequently to improving livelihoods and reducing poverty.
The on-going democratisation and decentralisation of
government institutions are positive advances, but much
remains to be done to establish local institutions which are
effective, sustainable and have the respect and support of local
communities. There is also a need for people to become more
directly involved in the identification, planning and
implementation of development programmes, as well as in
promoting economic and social changes which will enhance the
welfare of communities. Partnership with NGOs could also play
an important in achieving these objectives.
8.6 Selection of Appropriate Strategies for Each Development

Zone
To increase crop and livestock productivity significantly,

subsistence based agriculture (which is predominant in the
Basin) must be replaced by market orientated, intensive
agricultural systems, and far greater emphasis should be given
to economic diversification. It is also vital that there is a
substantial investment in economic infrastructure and improved
public services (including water resource development),
institutional strengthening and capacity building. Conservation
of natural resources will also play an important role in
mitigating land degradation, reducing pollution, maintaining fish
stocks, and protecting wildlife biodiversity.
With these developments, it will be possible to meet the needs

and aspirations of the growing population with respect to their
food and energy requirements, as well as their income and
employment opportunities. This requires:
 a population that is willing and able to adapt to changing

circumstances
 a resource base which is capable of supporting an economic
and social transformation, and
 a supportive institutional and legal framework.

Given the wide climatic and ecological diversity within the
Basin, contrasting geographical areas will clearly require
different development strategies. For example, in the arid
pastoral zones, i.e. DZ 7 and DZ 8, development should initially
follow Strategy 1: Subsistence Based Agricultural Development.
Conversely, in the highly populated highland areas e.g. DZ 4
(Eastern Enset/Coffee Zone), development based on Strategy 3:
Market Orientated Economic Development may be more
appropriate in the short and medium term. Consequently, in the
preparation of the Master Plan, strategies have been formulated
for each development zone based on the following criteria:
 Present level of agricultural and industrial development;

 Population density and population growth rates;
 Existing and projected levels of urbanisation;
 Existing economic infrastructure, i.e. roads, electricity and
telecommunications;
 Development opportunities with respect to commercial
agriculture and industrialisation;
 Physical resources, i.e. land suitability, water supply, energy
sources, minerals etc;
 Existing social infrastructure, i.e. education and health;
 Conservation of natural resources, i.e. land, forests, fisheries
and wildlife, and other environmental considerations, e.g.
water pollution and public health;
 Institutional capacity, community development and social
sustainability.
The phasing of appropriate strategies for each development

zone is given in Table 8.2. It can be seen that suitable strategies
are first identified for the development of the zone in the short
or short/medium term. During the medium/long or long term, a
more advanced development strategy is then adopted, to ensure
that rapid economic growth and poverty reduction is sustained
in the future.
It is therefore anticipated that DZ 1 (North East Highland), DZ 2

(North Central Lowland), DZ 3 (North West Mixed Farming) and
DZ 6 (Southern Mixed Farming) will initially engage Strategy B
(Integrated Socioeconomic Development) in the short term and
then move on to Strategy C (Market Orientated Economic

Development) in the medium and long term. Meanwhile for DZ 4
(Eastern Enset/Coffee Zone), Strategy C will be employed in the
short/medium term, followed by Strategy D (Accelerated
Industrial Development) in the long term.
With regard to DZ 5 (Eastern Mixed Farming), DZ 7 (Pastoral:

SNNPRS) and DZ 8 (Pastoral: Oromiya), Strategy A (Subsistence
Based Agricultural Development) will be adopted in the short
term, followed by Strategy B in the medium/long term.
Table THE MASTER PLAN.45: Phasing of appropriate strategies

for each development zone
Development zone Phasing of development strategies
Subsistence Integrated Market Accelerated
based socioeconomic oriented industrial
agricultural development economic development
development development
Medium/Long
Short Term
DZ 1: North East Highland Term
(Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Medium/Long
DZ 2: North Central Short Term
Term
Lowland (Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Medium/Long
DZ 3: North West Mixed Short Term
Term
Farming (Years 1 to 5)
(Years 6 to 25)
Short/Medium
DZ 4: Eastern Enset and Long Term
Term
Coffee (Years 16 to 25)
(Years 1 to 15)
Short/Medium
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed Long Term
Term
(Years 1 to 15)
Medium/Long
DZ 6: Southern Mixed Short Term
Term
(Years 6 to 25)
Short/Medium
DZ 7: Pastoral Zone – Long Term
Term
SNNP (Years 16 to 25)
(Years 1 to 15)
Short/Medium
DZ 8: Pastoral Zone – Long Term
Term
Oromiya (Years 16 to 25)
(Years 1 to 15)

The overall development plan for the Basin will therefore be a
combination of location specific strategies and zonal
development plans which have been integrated together to form
a balanced and consistent development package. This overall
integrated development plan for the Basin would therefore
encompass agricultural intensification, water resource
development, economic diversification, conservation of natural
resources, infrastructure development and expansion of public
services, as well as institutional strengthening/capacity building.
The plan will be phased over a 25 year period within eight
development zones. This integrated development approach is
essential if the broad objectives of poverty reduction and
sustainable development are to be achieved within the Rift
Valley Lakes Basin.
8.7 Zonal Development Plans
8.7.1 Introduction
The main characteristics of each development zone, together
with their respective key development constraints, have been
presented in Section 6.3. The zonal development plans required
to overcome these constraints and meet the objectives of
sustainable development and poverty reduction are discussed
below. These development plans are based on the appropriate
development strategies for each zone phased over the Master
Plan period as indicated in Table 8.2.
The zonal development plans comprise a range of interventions

which have been derived from the detailed Master Plan analysis
undertaken by the Economic Resource Optimisation and
Allocation Model (EROAM) and Rest of Economy model which
are described in Section 7.5. This analysis evaluated the
economic impact of a range of possible interventions for the
various development sectors under different scenarios (e.g.
population growth, food demand, macro-economic development
etc) within the context of the broad strategies outlined for the
each development zone. The most appropriate interventions for
each zone within RVLB were then determined.
In addition, the development opportunities for each sector (as

summarised in Section 5 and detailed in the Sector Assessment

Reports produced during Phase 1 of the Master Plan Study)
were also taken into account in the preparation of the zonal
development plans. For ease of reference, the interventions
within the zonal development plans have been grouped into the
following categories: (i) agricultural development (including
crop and livestock production); (ii) water resources development
(e.g. water supply and irrigation); (iii) conservation of natural
resources (e.g. soil/water conservation, forestry, fisheries,
apiculture and wildlife); (iv) economic diversification (e.g.
industry, commerce, mining and tourism); and (v) public
infrastructure and services (e.g. roads, markets, electricity,
telecommunications, education facilities and health services).
8.7.2 Development Zone 1: North East Highland Zone

Agricultural Development
The cereal based, highland mixed farming system of DZ 1 is
characterised by the low input production practices of small
scale farmers which dominate the farm sector. Increasing crop
productivity through the supply of farm inputs (e.g. new
varieties, fertilisers and pesticides) and by enhancing farmers’
knowledge of improved crop management practices such as
crop rotations and use of organic fertilisers (e.g. composting) is
therefore the main focus of the agricultural plan. Furthermore,
increasing accessibility to machinery and improved farm
implements (e.g. cultivators, seeders, threshers etc) will
improve labour productivity. This approach will be supported by
the rural technology research centre in Asela.
There are also opportunities to diversify cropping through the

expansion of cash crops, such as malting barley, pulses, oilseeds
and vegetables, to meet the requirements of the growing
domestic and export markets. Reliable and efficient links to
markets and agro-processors (such as flour mills, oil extraction
plants and the malt factory) should also be strengthened to
ensure sustainable increases in farm income through the
expansion of marketed surpluses. This would accelerate the
switch from subsistence to commercial small scale farming.
There are a few large scale farms in DZ 1, mainly producing

wheat, barley, oilseed and pulse crops, but crop productivity is
low. It is envisaged that crop yields will be increased by
improving farm management systems, upgrading tractors and

farm machinery, and expanding the availability of machinery
repair and maintenance services.
Livestock are an integral part of the highland mixed farming

system. Despite low productivity, livestock play an essential role
in supplying meat, milk, draft power and manure to farm
households and local markets. By improving breeding stock and
animal health facilities, as well as by enhancing animal feed,
forage crops and pasture management, livestock productivity
could significantly increase. To encourage the production of
marketed surpluses and increase farm income, meat and milk
processing plants also need to be established. The plan would
also focus the expansion of intensive poultry production to meet
the requirements of the growing urban population.
In comparison to some other zones, farmers in the North East

Highland Zone are more aware of the advantages of improved
farm technologies. However, poor availability of farm inputs and
lack of improved farm implements/machinery are still among the
main production constraints. The agricultural development plan
therefore places high priority on improving the capacity of
agricultural support and marketing services to meet the future
requirements of smallholders. Farmer co-operatives and the
private sector would also play a key role in providing these
services. A significant improvement in agricultural extension
services and credit facilities to encourage the adoption of new
farm technologies is also essential.
It is anticipated that food crop production will increase from

0.58 to 1.09 million tonnes per annum during the Master Plan
period, and the zone will remain a net exporter of food.
Although the food crop area is not likely to expand, average
crop yield is expected to increase from 2.1 tn/ha to 3.9 tn/ha. In
addition, the livestock population will be reduced from 1.08 to
0.93 million TLUs. This decline in the livestock population will
be offset by a corresponding increase in livestock productivity,
but the zone will probably become a substantial importer of
livestock products.
Water Resources Development

Most of the urban population in DZ 1 have access to water
supply facilities, although many of the systems require
improvement, e.g. Asela. In contrast, the majority of the rural
population rely on natural springs and wells for domestic water
use. Providing full water supply coverage in rural areas, as well
as upgrading and expanding the urban systems, would therefore
be the main objectives of the water resources plan. There is also
potential to develop groundwater resources, and this will be
given priority in the long term plan. In addition, emphasis would
be given to the improved management and maintenance of
existing water supply systems, in order to increase efficiency
and ensure that water supply is affordable to the users.
A sanitation programme will be implemented to meet the needs

of the urban and rural populations. For towns with a population
in excess of 25,000 people, full sanitation and wastewater
disposal facilities will be provided. For smaller towns and rural
areas, emphasis would be given to awareness creation and
hygiene education, and to the construction of pit latrines at both
household and community levels.
Horticultural crops are currently grown on traditional and small

scale irrigation schemes. Water harvesting ponds are also used
for irrigated crop production around farm homesteads. The
irrigation plan for this zone would therefore focus on upgrading
of traditional irrigation schemes, including the supply of
appropriate micro-irrigation systems, coupled with the provision
of credit, enhancement of farmers’ skills/knowledge and the
development of effective marketing systems.
Conservation of Natural Resources

In the erosion prone areas of the Eastern Ziway and Lake
Langano watersheds, there has been significant land
degradation and the degree of erosion hazard is high. In these
areas, both structural and vegetative conservation measures are
urgently required to reduce soil erosion and maintain soil
fertility on the moderately steep to very steep slopes. In DZ 1,
annual crops are grown on almost all the cultivated land and
this has aggravated soil erosion, particularly during fallow
periods.

For cultivated areas, the soil and water conservation (SWC)
measures would primarily focused on reducing erosion damage
and the conservation of soil moisture by maintaining vegetative
cover. Agro-forestry practices would also be promoted, and
perennial multi-purpose trees could be planted as wind breaks
on the Asela Plain. For areas with moderate levels of soil
erosion, interventions would include the implementation of
appropriate vegetative measures and improved husbandry
practices, e.g. contour ploughing, intercropping and crop
rotations.
With regard to forestry, the plan will focus on the expansion of

community woodlots and farm forestry as well as the
development of peri-urban plantations to meet demand for
fuelwood and timber from urban areas such as Asela.
Furthermore, encouraging the private sector to invest in
industrial timber plantations, e.g. Munesa-Shashemene Forest
Enterprise, will contribute to the expansion of forest resources
within the zone.
The protection and sustainable management of natural forests

and woodlands, e.g. Munessa Forest Priority Area, will also be a
key component of the forestry plan. Moreover, the introduction
of more efficient wood stoves, as well as the use of renewable
sources of energy, will help to reduce the adverse impact of
depredations for fuel wood on forest resources. During the
Master Plan period, it is expected that DZ 1 will become self
sufficient in woody biomass and the area of woodlots and
plantations is estimated to expand from 59,500 ha to 107,300
ha.
Wildlife resources in DZ 1 are diminishing due to deforestation,

land degradation and illegal hunting. The Munessa Control
Hunting Area, known for Mountain Nyala and Menelik’s
Bushbuck, provides some protection for wildlife, but significant
improvements in its management are required to restore its
effectiveness as a protected area. Conservation of natural
forests, expansion of tree plantations and controlled hunting are
therefore the main components of the wildlife conservation plan.
Finally, it is not anticipated that there would be any significant

change in the present level of fish stocks (primarily riverine), as

these are not currently being exploited for commercial
purposes. However, apiculture and honey production have
notable development potential, both to meet local demand and
to widen livelihood opportunities. Annual honey production is
therefore expected to increase from 136 to 914 tonnes in the
zone between 2008 and 2035 as a result of improved support
services and greater integration with agro-forestry activities.
Agro-industrial development will provide the foundation for
economic diversification and livelihood improvement in DZ 1. As
a consequence of increased agricultural output and the
production of marketed surpluses, a range of crop and livestock
processing plants will emerge to add value to primary
agricultural produce. There will therefore be considerable
potential to establish commercial agro-industries which will
create both formal and informal job opportunities for a
significant proportion of the population.
For example, a substantial expansion of wheat, barley and

oilseed production in the zone will encourage investors to
establish and expand grain/flour mills, malt factories and oil
extracting plants. Similarly, greater demand for livestock
products will lead to the establishment of meat and milk
processing plants. Furthermore, timber mills and other forest
based industries, such as small-scale furniture manufacture,
also have great potential to expand in response to rapidly
increasing local demand.
In most of the urban centres, the availability of electricity,

telecommunications and water supply services, coupled with
improved road and market infrastructure as well as the
proximity of the Addis Ababa and Nazareth markets, will also
provide an incentive for private enterprises to invest in agro-
processing.
Strengthening the linkages between agricultural production and

industrial activities will make a very significant contribution to
improving the livelihoods of the zonal population. Furthermore,
increased incomes will lead to enhanced purchasing power and
more investment in the zone which will generate further growth
of both sectors. The inter-dependence between agriculture and

industry will therefore result in sustainable economic
development.
Many of the existing industrial establishments are old and very

inefficient. These factories require modernisation to lower unit
production costs and so improve their competitiveness. There is
also an urgent need to strengthen the technical and managerial
skills of the industrial work force through technical and
vocational education/training (TVET) courses to enhance the
zone’s human resources.
The establishment of fully serviced work places in the urban

areas will encourage the private sector to invest in new
industrial enterprises and so accelerate industrial development
in the zone. In addition, the rural technology research centre in
Asela needs to expand, in order to facilitate the development of
appropriate farm machinery and equipment.
The rapid development of micro and small enterprises (MSEs)

through micro-credit and training programmes is also critical to
the economic diversification plan, as small-scale enterprises will
be one of the main pillars of socioeconomic development in both
the rural and urban areas. MSEs would be engaged in a wide
range of enterprises including small scale agro-processing,
carpentry, metalwork, equipment/machinery services,
construction, quarrying, transport, trading, shop keeping and
hotel/catering. To improve technical and business skills, MSEs
will also be provided with training from various vocational
centres.
DZ 1 also has a number of tourist attractions, such as beautiful

highland landscape and the Munessa Controlled Hunting Area.
However, in order to conserve the landscape in sustainable
manner, local communities will not only have to participate in
the tourism activities but also obtain equitable benefit from
tourism development. The communities would be involved in
provision of tourist facilities (e.g. transport, catering and
accommodation during treks), selling traditional handcrafts and
in guiding tourists. In addition to eco-tourism, there are also
potential opportunities for sport and leisure tourism in the zone.
Finally, a tourist information centre needs to be established in
Asela to promote tourism in DZ 1.

Public Infrastructure and Services
Infrastructure development is critical to the future economic
prosperity of the North East Highland Zone. The truck road
from Nazareth to Asela is currently being rehabilitated. This
improvement to the main road linking DZ 1 to Nazareth and
Addis Ababa will significantly enhance the future potential of
the zone. Furthermore, there is a plan to upgrade the Asela to
Dodola trunk road from gravel to asphalt status; this would
bring substantial transport and marketing benefits to the zone.
Nevertheless, there are still a number of regional roads in the
zone which require rehabilitation and upgrading. Priority should
therefore be given to improving the inter-wereda road network
which would facilitate the marketing of farm produce.
In addition, the market centres are not able to provide adequate

facilities and services to both producers and traders. Most
market sites lack shelter, water and storage facilities; they also
lack information and communication facilities such as telephone
and internet. There are also inadequate loading/unloading areas
for transport and no basic public facilities, e.g. toilets.
Improving market infrastructure is therefore an important
component of the zonal plan in an agricultural area with
substantial potential for development.
In the modern world, telecommunication systems also have vital

role to play. The agricultural and industrial sectors of the zone
have a potential to compete in both the domestic and
international markets, but access to market information
requires reliable telecommunications. A high priority should
therefore be given to the expansion of telecom and internet
services.
The expansion of electricity supply in the zone will encourage

the community to engage in different economic activities. In
addition to the provision of electricity to all urban areas, the
long term plan will also address the electricity requirements of
rural communities through the development of renewable
energy sources, such as solar, wind and micro-hydro power.
Education services must also expand rapidly in the zone to

ensure that the skills and knowledge required for economic

diversification and development are readily available. High
priority will therefore be given to expanding primary, secondary
and tertiary education services, particularly within the rural
areas. It is anticipated that the school enrolment rate will
increase to 83% by 2035 and there will be significant falls in the
student:teacher ratio with a substantial increase in number of
teachers employed (from 3,653 in 2008 to 14,193 in 2035).
The expansion and strengthening of the hospitals and health

centres/clinics, as well as up-grading the professional skills and
expertise of health workers, are also urgently required to
expand the coverage of health and family planning services
rapidly in the zone. During the Master Plan period, it is
estimated that the number of hospitals and health
centres/clinics will increase from 131 to 384, and the number of
health workers will almost treble (from 632 in 2008 to 1,853 in
2035).
The urban population within the zone is growing rapidly,

particularly in Asela which is the largest town (population:
67,000 in 2005). However, the required urban infrastructure has
not expanded in a commensurate manner. The main focus of the
urban development plan will therefore be the upgrading the
existing public facilities including roads, water supply, electrical
power, market centres and transport. This would encourage the
private enterprises to invest in a wide range of opportunities in
the industrial and service sectors. This in turn is vital because,
in future, the private sector will be the main driving force of
economic diversification and development in the zone.
8.7.3 Development Zone 2: North Central Lowland Zone

Agriculture in DZ 2 is primarily based on the lowland mixed
farming system which is dominated by smallholder production.
A wide range of crops (including maize, sorghum, teff, pulses,
oilseeds and vegetables) are cultivated, but smallholders mainly
use traditional production methods which limit agricultural
productivity. In addition, rainfall variability adversely affects
crop production in this zone, so the development of small and
medium irrigation schemes plays an important role in enhancing
crop production, particularly for horticultural crops.

The crop intensification plan will therefore focus on: (i)
introduction of better tillage practises, (ii) supply of improved
seeds, (iii) use of organic and inorganic fertilisers, (iv)
integrated pest management, and (v) enhanced processing and
marketing facilities, (vi) development of irrigation schemes
primarily for vegetable production, and (vii) introduction of
more efficient irrigation technologies including pumped systems
and drip irrigation.
A crop diversification plan will also be pursued, which will focus

on the production of oilseeds, pulses, vegetables and fruit crops
for both the domestic and export markets. A complete
development package comprising both intensification and
diversification is therefore required to increase crop
productivity rapidly, and to facilitate the change from the
subsistence to market oriented smallholder production.
There are a number of large scale, commercial farms in DZ 2,

mainly producing cereals, oilseed and pulse crops. The zone has
favourable landscape and soil type for mechanised farming
systems, so the plan will therefore focus on the provision of
agricultural machinery services as well as improving the
technical and managerial skills of farm managers. In addition,
further expansion of the commercial floriculture enterprises
located in DZ 2 will be encouraged, in order to increase export
earnings and provide additional employment opportunities.
Livestock production is an important part of the farming

systems in the zone, and so must be a key component of the
agricultural development plan. Livestock development
interventions will concentrate on the improvement of breeding
stock, better animal feed and forage production, improved
access to veterinary services, upgrading livestock husbandry
skills, and increased poultry production as well as an enhanced
network of markets and processing facilities.
Reliable agricultural support services, i.e. extension, input

supply and credit, are critical to the success of the agricultural
development plan. Consequently, in the short term, the
government would take a leading role in the provision of these
agricultural services. In the medium to long term, however, the

services would be provided by farmers’ co-operatives and the
private sector.

period, and that the zone will remain an important food
exporter. The food crop area is expected to expand marginally,
and average crop yield is estimated to increase from 2.1 tn/ha to
4.3 tn/ha. In addition, the livestock population will be reduced
from 0.98 to 0.84 million TLUs. This decline in the livestock
population will be offset by a corresponding increase in livestock
productivity, but it is probable that the zone will become a
substantial importer of livestock products.
Water Resource Development

The majority of the urban population in DZ 2 have access to a
reliable water supply. Most urban water supply systems are
operating satisfactorily, e.g. Shashemene, but some do not
provide adequate coverage and require rehabilitation. However,
the rural population generally depend on unprotected wells and
ponds for domestic water use. Rehabilitation and expansion of
the urban water supply systems would be the main focus of the
development plan, followed by an expansion of water supply
facilities in the rural areas to achieve full coverage by 2035.
Groundwater would be the main source of water, but pumping
from rivers may also be required. Furthermore, emphasis would
be given to the improving the management of existing water
supply systems in order to increase efficiency and cost
effectiveness.

with more than 25,000 people, full sanitation and wastewater
hygiene education as well as the construction of pit latrines at
both household and community levels.
The key physical requirements of irrigated agriculture are the

availability of adequate and exploitable water resources, flat
topography and fertile soils. Based on these criteria, the zone is
suitable for further irrigation development. At present, a

number of irrigation schemes are located in the zone; these
include the Ziway-Adami Tulu State Farm, Meki-Ziway Irrigation
Project and various other smallholder irrigation schemes in
Dugda Bora wereda.
The irrigation development plan is therefore focused on the

establishment of economically viable and environmentally
sustainable irrigation schemes. A number of irrigation schemes
are proposed for implementation during the Master Plan period
including the Lower Meki Irrigation Development Project (3,500
ha) and Katar River Irrigation Project (5,000 ha). Although the
expansion of irrigated land is limited by availability of
sustainable water resources, it is still estimated that the
irrigated area in the zone would increase by about 7,300 ha
(from 4,560 ha to 11,860 ha) during the Master Plan period. It is
also recommended that the existing schemes are upgraded and
more effective irrigation technologies (including pumping
systems and drip irrigation) are introduced to enhance water
use efficiency. This will be combined with improved agricultural
support services and better marketing systems.

Although a large proportion of the zone is flat to moderately flat,
land degradation is still a problem on the moderately steep to
steep hills; gully and sheet erosions are the main types of
erosion. Conservation measures to mitigate soil erosion in
cultivated areas and water courses would therefore be a key
component of the natural resource conservation plan. Both
structural and vegetative methods of erosion control will be
required.
The depletion of forest resources is a major concern and, unless

conservation measures are implemented, this resource will be
destroyed. The conservation plan will therefore focus on the
protection of natural forests and woodlands within the zone. In
addition, the introduction of more efficient wood stoves and use
of renewable sources of energy will help to reduce the adverse
impact on forest resources. To meet the rapidly expanding
demand for fuelwood and timber, there will be a substantial
expansion of community woodlots, farm forestry and peri-urban
plantations. During the Master Plan period, it is expected that
the imports of woody biomass into DZ 2 will significantly reduce;

meanwhile, the area of woodlots and plantations is estimated to
expand from 18,000 ha to 77,500 ha.
Lake Ziway is the most heavily fished lake in the Basin, and fish
stocks are currently under imminent threat from declining lake
water levels (due mainly to abstraction for irrigation purposes)
and pollution from agricultural chemicals. Given the current
situation, there is little scope to expand the fisheries, but there
is an urgent need to improve the management of fish stocks
significantly, in order to ensure that the future development of
the fisheries sector is sustainable. The regional fishery
proclamations and bylaws therefore need to be implemented
and enforced, in order to save the remaining fish stocks from
total depletion.
After a regulatory and licensing framework has been introduced,

there are a number of opportunities to increase fish production
in the zone. For example, fishermen on Lake Langano could be
provided with technical support to increase production. This
would also require an improvement in fishing gear, and the
adoption of better fishing methods. There are some lakes in
which fish stocks are currently untapped, and these could
contribute to an overall increase in fish production.
Furthermore, the substantial losses resulting from fish spoilage
and discards should be reduced by improvements to the shore
infrastructure facilities, i.e. handling, processing, storage and
transport of fish. To meet the growing urban demand, it is
estimated that fish production in the zone could increase by
3,672 tonnes/annum (from 815 to 4,487 tonnes/annum) between
2008 and 2035.
There is also considerable potential to expand apiculture

enterprises. Honey production is expected to increase from 296
to 1,083 tonnes/annum in the zone, as a result of improved
support services and greater integration with horticultural and
agro-forestry activities.
Wildlife resources in the zone are diminishing due to

deforestation and declining lake water levels. Abiyata-Shala
Lakes National Park (ASLNP) was established in 1970 and
encompasses aquatic and terrestrial habitats which used to be
home to over 400 bird species and mammals such as Grants

Gazelle, Reedbuck, Grey Duiker and Warthog. ASLNP is at a
very critical stage as a protected area because, as the
watershed rapidly deteriorates, depletion of its diverse ecology
accelerates. The few remaining wildlife species will certainly
disappear in the near future unless necessary measures are
introduced to curtail these threats. The rehabilitation and
sustainable development of ASLNP, with the full participation of
local communities, is therefore the main component of the
wildlife conservation plan for the zone.
In addition, the Senkelle Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary

(SSHBS) is home to 19 mammals and 110 bird species, while
Aluto Controlled Hunting Area is known for the Greater Kudu
and Grant’s Gazelle. However, significant improvements in the
management of these protected areas are required to reinstate
its standing as an effective wildlife sanctuary.
Economic diversification is a key feature of the development
plan in the North Central Lowland Zone and the expansion of
agro-industrial activities will help to reduce unemployment and
enhance the household incomes. The potential agro-industries
would include grain/flour mills, edible oil plants, vegetable/fruit
processing factories, slaughter houses and meat processing
plants, fish processing and furniture manufacture. The
availability of water supply, electricity and telecommunication
services in the urban centres, as well as the improved road and
market infrastructure, also provide an incentive for private
investment in agro-processing enterprises; these can supply the
rapidly growing Addis Ababa and Nazareth markets, which are
within easy reach of the zone.
The emergence of agro-industries in the zone will also result in

rapid expansion of service and ancillary enterprises such as
trading, transport, construction, shop keeping, hotel/catering
etc. Micro and small enterprises would be actively involved in
this expansion, which would be facilitated by the provision of
credit facilities and training. Household income sources would
then be diversified, thus improving the capacity of the local
people to meet their basic needs. Furthermore, as economic
development continues, these enterprises would expand into

medium and large enterprises, thereby creating additional job
opportunities.
The above development activities will be mainly undertaken by

private sector which is the main economic driver in a market
economy. The role of the public sector will therefore be to
support and strengthen public facilities through the provision
adequate urban infrastructure, as well as providing a supportive
policy and legal framework.
Many of the existing factories require upgrading and improved

technologies to lower their unit production costs. Similarly,
there needs to be significant investment in technical and
vocational training, to enhance the capacity of the industrial
work force particularly with respect to technical and managerial
skills. The establishment of fully serviced work places in the
urban areas will also encourage private sector investment in
new industrial enterprises; this is turn will accelerate industrial
development in the zone.
Soda ash is currently being mined at Lake Abiyata but, due to

the significant decline in the lake water level, the plant has not
produced sodium carbonate for the past three years. There are
plans for expansion using brines brought in from Lake Shala,
but the financial viability of this proposal is questionable and
there are concerns regarding water pollution. There are also
diatomite deposits near Gademotta, Adami Tulu, Chefe Jila and
Abiyata with over 40 million tonnes of proven, good quality
reserves. Ethiopia is currently importing these industrial
minerals, so there is considerable scope for mining these
reserves.
DZ 2 also has a number of tourist attractions, such as: (i)

Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park (ASLNP), (ii) Senkelle
Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary (SSHBS), (iii) Lake Langano
(with leisure activities such as swimming, boating, fishing and
bird watching), (iv) Lake Ziway (with leisure and cultural
activities), and (v) Aluto Controlled Hunting Area. At present,
the management of these tourist attractions is inadequate.
Consequently there is a need to improve tourism management
(including the development of standards for accommodation,
services and facilities) and to develop appropriate marketing

strategies. Local communities should also be fully involved in
tourism development through the provision of tourist facilities,
sale of handcrafts and acting as guides. Finally, tourist
information centres need to be established in Ziway and
Shashemene to promote tourism in DZ 2.

At present, public infrastructure and services within the zone
are not adequate to meet future development requirements. The
construction of a good road network, better transport services,
well equipped market centres, improved health and education
services, as well as the provision of electricity and
telecommunications facilities, are therefore vital if successful
and sustainable economic development is to be achieved in the
zone.
With regard to road development, the asphalt truck road from

Mojo to Awasa passing through DZ 2 is due to be rehabilitated
under the present road programme. This improvement to the
main road linking DZ 2 to Addis Ababa will facilitate future
development in the zone. Furthermore, there is a plan to
upgrade the Ziway to Butajira and Shashemene to Gemeto link
roads from gravel to asphalt status, which would bring transport
and marketing benefits to the zone. There are also a number of
regional roads in the zone which require rehabilitation and
upgrading. Priority should therefore be given to improving the
rural road network which would facilitate the marketing of farm
produce.
The market centres are far from adequate and have only basic
amenities. Improvements to market infrastructure include the
provision of facilities such as storage, shelter and water, as well
as market information and communication centres. These
improvements are critical to achieving a modern and fully
functional marketing system to facilitate economic development
in the zone.
Telecommunications in the zone are not reliable, and modern

telecommunication networks, such as telecom and internet
services, are therefore urgently required. These networks would
make a major contribution to education/training programmes,

market information exchange and providing information on
public services.
The expansion of electricity supply in the zone will facilitate

economic development. In addition to the provision of electricity
to all urban areas, the zonal plan will also increase the supply of
electricity to rural areas through the development of renewable
energy sources, such as geothermal, solar, wind and micro-
hydro power.
A very high priority will also be given to expanding the provision

of education services substantially at all levels. This would
include the construction of primary, secondary and tertiary
schools, increasing the enrolment rate, improving
student:teacher ratios and greatly enhancing the supply of
learning materials throughout the zone. It is anticipated that
school enrolment will increase to 83% by 2035. There will also
be significant falls in student:teacher ratios, through a
substantial increase in the number of teachers employed (from
4,060 in 2008 to 16,249 in 2035).
The main focus of the development plan for health services

would be on preventive measures and family health care,
administered through hospitals and health centres/clinics. The
rapid expansion of hospitals and health centres/clinics, as well
as up-grading the health workers’ skills, are therefore required
to expand the coverage of health and family planning services
rapidly in the zone. During the Master Plan period, it is
health workers will almost treble (from 719 in 2008 to 2,128 in
2035).
To meet the requirements of the rapidly growing urban

population, particularly in towns such as Shashemene, Arsi
Negele and Meki, urban infrastructure needs to be significantly
enhanced. The main focus of the urban development plan will
therefore be upon upgrading the existing public facilities
including roads, water supply, electrical power, market centres
and transport. This would encourage private enterprises to
invest in a wide range of industrial and commercial enterprises.

8.7.4 Development Zone 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone
The main farming systems in DZ 3 are: (i) cereal based lowland
mixed farming, and (ii) enset based mixed farming. A wide
range of crops (including wheat, barley, teff, maize, enset,
pulses, oilseeds, chat, coffee, roots, vegetables and fruit) are
cultivated in the zone and these smallholder farming systems
are characterised by risk averse, low input production practices.
Increasing crop productivity through the supply of improved
seeds and other crop inputs, as well as by improving farmers’
knowledge of sustainable crop husbandry practices, is therefore
the cornerstone of the agricultural plan. Furthermore,
increasing accessibility to appropriate farm machinery and
implements will increase labour productivity.
There are also opportunities to diversify cropping through the

expansion of cash crops such as pulses, chat, coffee, vegetables
and fruits to meet the requirements of the growing domestic
and export markets. To facilitate this diversification,
communication links to markets and agro-processors should be
strengthened, to ensure there are reliable and efficient outlets
for marketable surpluses.
There are a number of large scale farms in the lowlands of DZ 3,

mainly producing cereals and pulses. The lowland areas are
suitable for mechanised farming systems, so the plan will focus
on the provision of machinery services as well as improving the
technical and managerial skills of farm managers.
Livestock are an integral part of the mixed farming systems.

Despite low productivity, livestock play an essential role in
supplying meat, milk, draft power and manure to farm
households and local markets. By improving breeding stock and
animal health facilities, as well as enhancing animal feed, forage
crops and pasture management, livestock productivity could
significantly increase. To encourage the production of marketed
surpluses, meat and milk processing plants also need to be
established. The plan would also focus the expansion of
intensive poultry production to meet the growing urban
demand.

Poor availability of farm inputs and lack of improved farm
implements/machinery is still one of the main production
constraints in the zone. The agricultural development plan
therefore places high priority on improving the capacity of
agricultural support and marketing services to meet the future
requirements of smallholders. Farmer co-operatives and the
private sector would also play a key role in providing these
services. A significant improvement in agricultural extension
services and credit facilities to encourage the adoption of new
farm technologies is also essential.

period, and the zone will remain an important food exporter.
The food crop area is expected to expand marginally, and
average crop yield is estimated to increase from 2.6 tn/ha to 5.0
tn/ha. In addition, the livestock population will be reduced from
2.02 to 1.73 million TLUs. This decline in the livestock
productivity, but it is probable that the zone will become a
substantial importer of livestock products.

Many of the urban centres in DZ 3 have access to water supply
facilities, although several of the systems require improvement.
In contrast, the majority of the rural population rely on natural
springs and wells for domestic water use. Rehabilitation and
expansion of the urban water supply systems would be the main
priority of the water resources development plan, followed by an
expansion of water supply facilities in the rural areas to achieve
full coverage by 2035. There is also potential to develop
groundwater resources; this will be given priority in the long
term plan. Emphasis would also be given to the improved
management and maintenance of existing water supply systems
in order to increase efficiency and cost effectiveness.

with over 25,000 people, full sanitation and wastewater disposal
facilities will be provided. For smaller towns and rural areas,
awareness creation and hygiene education, as well as the

construction of pit latrines at both household and community
levels, would be the focus.
With regard to irrigation, horticultural crops are currently

grown on traditional and small scale irrigation schemes. The
irrigation plan for this zone would therefore focus on the
upgrading of traditional irrigation schemes (including the supply
of appropriate irrigation equipment) coupled with the provision
of extension, input supply, credit and marketing services. It is
also estimated that the irrigated area would slightly increase
from 5,939 to 6,015 ha during the Master Plan period.

The erosion prone areas of the Western Ziway-Abiyata, Shala,
and Bilate watersheds, which lie within DZ 3, include some of
the most degraded areas in the Basin. There has been very
substantial soil erosion on the steep to very steep slopes. The
degree of erosion hazard ranges from high to very high, with
some pockets of land experiencing extremely high levels of
erosion. The rate of soil loss is considerable and some areas the
land cannot tolerate further losses due to shallow soil depths.
Some efforts are being made to mitigate land degradation under
the MERET programme, which aims to improve livelihoods in
target areas through an integrated watershed management
approach based on community participation.
The SWC measures would primarily focus on reducing erosion

damage and the conservation of soil moisture by maintaining
vegetative cover. Both structural and vegetative measures would
be required to reduce soil erosion and maintain soil fertility on
the moderately steep to very steep slopes. Agro-forestry
practices would also be promoted, and perennial multi-purpose
trees could also be planted. For areas with moderate levels of
soil erosion, interventions would include the implementation of
rotations.
The plan will focus on the expansion of community woodlots and

farm forestry, as well as the development of peri-urban
plantations to meet demand for fuelwood and timber from urban
areas such as Sodo, Hossaina and Butajira. Furthermore,

encouraging the private sector to invest in industrial timber
plantations, e.g. at Silti, Meskan, Sodo and Hossaina, will
further contribute to expansion of forest resources within the
zone.
The protection and sustainable management of natural forests,

e.g. Dobi Forest Priority Area, will also be an important
component of the forestry plan. Moreover, the introduction of
more efficient wood stoves, as well as the use of renewable
sources of energy, will help to reduce the adverse impact on
forest resources. During the Master Plan period, it is expected
that DZ 3 will become a net exporter of woody biomass and the
area of woodlots and plantations is estimated to expand from
63,410 ha to 251,060 ha. Apiculture also has good development
potential, with honey production expected to increase from 680
to 1,410 tonnes/annum in the zone between 2008 and 2035 as a
result of improved support services and greater integration with
agro-forestry activities.
There are a number of small lakes located in the zone, but Lake
Abaya is the main fishing area. If a regulatory and licensing
system is introduced to manage fish stocks, there is some
potential to expand fish production. To achieve this potential,
fishermen could be provided with technical support and
improved fishing gear. In addition, the losses resulting from fish
spoilage should also be reduced by improvements to the shore
facilities, i.e. handling, storage and transport of fish. To meet
the growing urban demand, it is estimated that fish production
in the zone could increase from 380 to 1,743 tonnes/annum
between 2008 and 2035.
Wildlife resources in DZ 3 have significantly declined due to

deforestation and land degradation. The conservation of natural
forests, expansion of tree plantations and increased fish stocks
will help to mitigate this decline.
Economic diversification and livelihood improvement in DZ 3
will be primarily based on the rapid expansion of agro-industries
as a result of increased agricultural output and the production
of marketed surpluses. This agro-industrial development will

generate both formal and informal job opportunities for a
significant proportion of the zonal population.
A range of crop and livestock processing plants will emerge to

add value to primary agricultural produce. For example, a
substantial expansion of cereal and oilseed production in the
zone will encourage investors to establish and expand grain,
flour and edible oil mills as well as vegetable/fruit processing
plants and coffee factories. Similarly, increased demand for
livestock products will lead to the establishment of slaughter
houses and meat processing factories, as well as dairy
processing plants. In most of the urban centres, the availability
of electricity, telecommunications and water supply services,
coupled with improved road and market infrastructure, will also
provide an incentive for private enterprises to invest in agro-
processing. In addition, timber mills and other forest based
industries, such as small-scale furniture manufacture, have
great potential to meet local demand and widen livelihood
opportunities at suitable location such as Butajira.
Many of the existing factories require modernisation to improve

their competitiveness, and there is a critical need to improve the
managerial and technical capacity of the industrial work force
through technical and vocational training. The establishment of
fully serviced work places in the urban areas will also encourage
the private sector to invest in new industrial enterprises.

through micro-credit and training programmes is also a key
component of the economic diversification plan in both the rural
and urban areas. MSEs would be engaged in a wide range of
enterprises, including small scale agro-processing, carpentry,
metalwork, machinery services, construction, quarrying,
transport, trading, shop keeping and hotel/catering.
DZ 3 also has a few tourist attractions including the highland
landscape and cultural diversity. However, local communities
will not only have to participate in the tourism activities but also
obtain equitable benefit from tourism development. In addition
to eco-tourism, there are potential opportunities for sport and
leisure tourism in the zone.

Improved public infrastructure development is essential for the
future social and economic development of the North West
Mixed Farming Zone. The truck road from Butajira to Sodo via
Hossaina is due to be upgraded under the present road
programme. The trunk roads from Alaba to Soda and from Soda
to Arba Minch will also be rehabilitated. These improvements to
the main truck roads linking DZ 3 to Addis Ababa as well as
other DZs in RVLB will facilitate the future development within
the zone.
Furthermore, there is a plan to upgrade the truck road from

Alaba to Arba Minch via Humbo, as well as three link roads from
Bule to Werabe, Mazoria to Durame, and Butajira to Ziway. A
new gravel road is also planned to link Alaba, Alem Gebeya and
Wulbareg. These interventions would also bring substantial
transport and marketing benefits to the zone. Two new regional
roads are planned, i.e. from Hossaina to Alaba Kulito, and from
Moricho to Dimetu, Bedesa and Delbo. In addition, there are still
a number of regional roads in the zone which require
rehabilitation and upgrading.
Market centres in the zone are not able to provide adequate

facilities and services such as shelter, water, storage,
loading/unloading areas and toilets as well as market
information and communication centres. Improving market
infrastructure is therefore an important component of the zonal
plan in an agricultural area with substantial potential for
development.
Telecommunication systems also have vital role to play in the

social and economic development of the zone. Access to
information requires reliable telecommunications, so high
priority should be given to the expansion of telecom and internet
services. These improvements are critical to achieving rapid
agricultural and industrial development as well as improved
public services.
The expansion of electricity supply in the zone will also

encourage the community to engage in different economic
activities, particularly in urban areas. Such expansion will also
reduce pressure on forest resources. In addition to the provision
of electricity to all urban areas, the long term plan will address

the electricity requirements of rural communities through the
development of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind
and micro-hydro power.
It is also vital that education services are rapidly expanded, to

ensure that there are adequate skills, knowledge and expertise
available for economic development in the zone. High priority
will therefore be given to expanding primary, secondary and
tertiary education services, particularly within the rural areas. It
is anticipated that school enrolment will increase to 83% by
2035. There will also be significant falls in student:teacher
ratios, with a substantial increase in the number of teachers
employed (from 13,242 in 2008 to 31,851 in 2035).
The expansion and strengthening of the hospitals and health

centres/clinics, as well as up-grading the professional skills and
expertise of health workers, are also urgently needed to expand
the coverage of health and family planning services rapidly in
the zone. During the Master Plan period, it is estimated that the
number of hospitals and health centres/clinics will increase from
233 to 527, and the number of health workers will almost treble
(from 2,015 in 2008 to 4,560 in 2035).
The urban population is growing rapidly, particularly in Sodo

and Hossaina, which are the largest towns within the zone
(populations greater than 50,000). The main focus of the urban
development plan will be the upgrading the existing public
facilities including roads, water supply, sanitation, electrical
power, market centres and transport. This would encourage
private enterprises to invest in a wide range of opportunities in
the industrial and service sectors.
8.7.5 Development Zone 4: Eastern Enset and Coffee Zone

Intensification and diversification are the main focus of the
agricultural development plan in the Eastern Enset and Coffee
Zone, but resource conservation should be integrated in the
farming systems to ensure sustainability. The main farming
systems in DZ 4 are: (i) enset based mixed farming, and (ii)
cereal based lowland mixed farming. A wide range of crops
(including enset, coffee, chat, cereals, pulses, roots, vegetables
and fruit) are cultivated by smallholders in the zone.

The enset based farming system is one of the most
environmentally sustainable systems of land use. Maintaining
the existing multi-storey and diversified cropping system, but
with the enhanced crop yields, would be the primary aim of the
agricultural development plan. Intensification of the cropping
system would employ improved varieties (particularly for coffee,
enset and vegetables), organic and inorganic fertilisers, better
cultural practices (e.g. coffee pruning), integrated pest
management and improved post-harvest technologies.
Crop diversification would include the expansion of

temperate/tropical fruit trees and a variety of vegetable crops,
as well as an increase in roots and pulses. The mutual benefits
of crop diversification and improved crop productivity would
therefore improve household incomes and ensure food security
in a sustainable manner. To facilitate this diversification,
communication links to markets and agro-processors should also
be strengthened to ensure there are reliable outlets for
marketable surpluses.
Improving livestock productivity to make optimum use of the

feed resources would also be a key feature of the agricultural
plan. Livestock productivity is low because traditional highland
livestock systems are still being practised. The introduction of
quality breeding stock adapted to the local conditions, coupled
with the adoption of better livestock husbandry practices, would
be the principal interventions. Emphasis would also be given to
better animal health services and improved livestock feed and
forage production. In terms of dry matter, the zonal livestock
feed balance is in deficit and this highlights the importance of
intensifying fodder production and livestock systems (e.g. stall
fed cattle). Furthermore, integrating these production systems
with meat and milk processing to add value to farm output is of
equal importance.
The agricultural development plan places high priority on

improving the capacity of agricultural support and marketing
services to meet the future requirements of smallholders. A
significant improvement in agricultural extension services and
credit facilities to encourage the adoption of new farm
technologies is also essential. In the short to medium term, the

agricultural services but, in the long term, the services would be
provided by farmers’ cooperatives and the private sector.

period, but the zone will remain a net importer of food due to
the rapid increase in demand, particularly from the growing
urban population. Although the food crop area is not likely to
expand, average crop yield is expected to increase from 2.7 t/ha
to 6.4 t/ha. In addition, the livestock population will be reduced
from 1.20 to 0.97 million TLUs. This decline in the livestock
productivity, but the zone will still remain a very substantial
importer of livestock products.

A reliable supply of clean water is essential for development in
both rural and urban areas of DZ 4. Water is relatively
accessible for domestic and industrial use but, despite the
adequate availability, the quality of the water is a serious
problem particularly for areas downstream of coffee factories
which pollute the watercourses. The provision of improved
water supply for human and livestock consumption would
therefore focus on the development of springs and ground
water. For industrial purposes, both ground water and river
sources could be used. It is, however, imperative that water
pollution caused by discharges from coffee factories and other
industries is strictly controlled.
Rehabilitation and expansion of the urban water supply systems

would be the main priority of the water resources development
plan, followed by an expansion of water supply facilities in the
rural areas to achieve full coverage by 2035. In addition,
emphasis would be given to the improved management and
maintenance of existing water supply systems, to increase their
efficiency and cost effectiveness.
In addition, a sanitation programme will be implemented. For

towns with over 25,000 people, full sanitation and wastewater
areas, awareness creation and hygiene education, as well as the

construction of pit latrines for households and communities,
would be the focus.
Although no medium and large scale irrigation schemes are
planned for the zone, there is potential for micro and small scale
irrigation improvements. Small farmers would particularly
benefit from these interventions which would provide
supplementary irrigation during the dry season for the
cultivation of high value horticultural crops.

The conservation of natural resources is vital for the
sustainability the zone’s ecology and water resources. At
present, the natural resources in DZ 4 are diminishing due to
population pressure. The erosion prone areas of the Awasa and
Gidabo watersheds experience soil erosion and landslides which
are aggravated by intensive rainfall, steep slopes, deforestation
and inappropriate tillage. The degree of erosion hazard ranges
from moderate to high. Both structural and vegetative measures
will be required to reduce soil erosion on the moderately steep
to very steep slopes. For areas with moderate levels of soil
appropriate vegetative measures and improved crop husbandry
practices. SWC is therefore a key component of the conservation
plan and this will be integrated with the agricultural
development plan which is based on conservation farming.
The expansion of community woodlots and the development of

peri-urban plantations to meet demand for fuelwood and timber
from urban areas such as Awasa, Dila and Yirga Alem will be a
key component of the forestry plan. Agro-forestry practices
would also be strongly promoted in order to maintain the
vegetation cover as well as provide a source of fuelwood and
fodder for small farmers. Furthermore, encouraging the private
sector to invest in industrial timber plantations, e.g. at Dara,
Dale, Kochere, Yirga Chefe and Wondo Genet, will further
contribute to expansion of forest resources within the zone.
The sustainable management of existing natural forests, e.g.

Wondo Genet Forest, is also important. Community based
participatory forest management will be the main approach to
forest conservation. Moreover, the introduction of more efficient
wood stoves, as well as the use of renewable sources of energy,

will help to reduce the adverse impact on forest resources.
During the Master Plan period, it is expected that DZ 4 will
remain a net importer of woody biomass even though the area of
woodlots and plantations is estimated to expand from 44,749 ha.
to 72,957 ha. Apiculture also has good development potential
and honey production is expected to increase from 406 to 1,353
tonnes/annum in the zone between 2008 and 2035 as a result of
improved support services and greater integration with
horticultural and agro-forestry activities.
Lake Awasa is the main location for fishing in DZ 4, but stocks

have been declining for some years due to over fishing. The
current licensing system and regulations need to be enforced to
ensure that fish stocks are managed sustainably. There is some
scope to expand fish production, which can be achieved if
fishermen are provided with technical support through the
extension services. To meet the growing urban demand, it is
estimated that fish production in the zone could marginally
increase from 758 to 821 tonnes/annum between 2005 and
2035.
Wildlife resources in DZ 4 have been declining in recent years.

The conservation of natural forests, expansion of tree
plantations and increased fish stocks will help to mitigate this
decline.
The aim of the economic diversification plan for DZ 4 is to
establish a strong economic base which would have the
potential to alleviate poverty and significantly improve living
standards. In the short to medium term, economic
diversification would increase the value added to agricultural
outputs, as well as provide alternative income opportunities in
the industrial and service sectors. The acquisition of technical
and managerial skills by the local population and exposure to
improved technologies and industrial developments, coupled
with increased capital investment (both public and private), will
then facilitate further industrialisation and economic growth in
the long term.
The diversified farming systems provide a favourable

environment and source of raw materials for the expansion of

agro-processing plants in DZ 4. These agro-industries include
coffee factories, grain/flour mills, enset starch extracting plants
and vegetable/fruit processing. Increased demand for livestock
products will also lead to the establishment of slaughterhouses
and meat processing factories, as well as dairy processing
plants. In addition, the improved availability of good quality
hides and skin products will also provide an incentive for
investment in leather processing and footwear manufacture.
There is considerable potential for expansion of forest based

industries, such as timber milling and manufacture of furniture
and construction poles. Small and medium sized enterprises will
therefore be encouraged to establish mills and factories at
suitable locations such as Dila.
The establishment of engineering works to produce spare parts

and tools for the agro-industries would help to facilitate the
upgrading and expansion of agro-industries such as grain/flour
mills, coffee washing/hulling plants, furniture manufacture and
metal fabrication. Furthermore, there will be an expansion of
the existing textile mills and ceramics factory located in Awasa.
In many of the urban centres, the availability of electricity,

improved road and market infrastructure, will also provide an
incentive for private enterprises to invest in industrial and
commercial enterprises. There is, however, a critical need to
modernise existing factories, as well as to improve the
managerial and technical capacity of the industrial work force
through technical and vocational training. The establishment of
fully serviced work places in the urban areas will also encourage
the private sector to invest in new industrial enterprises.

through micro-credit and training programmes is another key
component of the economic diversification plan, in both the
rural and urban areas. Industrial development will generate a
wide range of ancillary business activities including carpentry,
metalwork, machinery services, construction, quarrying,
transport, trading, shop keeping and hotel/catering. The
business orientated attitude of the community will therefore
help to expand these enterprises rapidly when future industrial

establishments are established. A major expansion of MSEs
would also make a significant contribution to mitigating the
unemployment problem in the zone, particularly for young
people.
A wide variety of tourist attractions, including Awasa and its

environs (for bird watching and boating), Wondo Genet (for hot
springs) and Yirga Alem (for eco-tourism) are available in DZ 4.
In addition, the cultural heritage and natural endowments (such
as waterfalls and scenic landscape) provide a sound foundation
for the development of ecotourism as well as leisure and cultural
tourism in the zone. The private sector would be encouraged to
provide appropriate facilities in the zone, but local communities
would also be involved in the planning and implementation of
tourism developments to ensure that they receive a reasonable
share of the income generated. A tourist information centre will
also be established in Awasa.
In general, the private sector will play a critical role in the

economic diversification of DZ 4, particularly with respect to
expansion agro-industries, tourism and ancillary businesses.

The main truck road from Addis Ababa to Moyale passes
through Awasa and DZ 4. Most wereda capitals in the zone are
also inter-connected through the main road network. With
regard to road development, the link road from Aleta Wondo to
Bosaday is due to be upgraded from gravel to asphalt under the
present road programme. The trunk roads from Awasa to Dila
and from Wendo Genet to Dila will also be rehabilitated. It is
recommended that a new east-west link road from Arba Minch
to the main north-south trunk road (i.e. Awasa to Moyale) and a
new all weather gravel road from Fiseha Genet to Chelelektu
and Konso are constructed. These improvements to the main
roads linking DZ 4 to Addis Ababa as well as other DZs in the
Basin will facilitate the future development within the zone.
A number of regional roads in the zone require rehabilitation

and upgrading. In addition, due to the poor condition of the
rural feeder roads (which are impassable during the wet
season), farmers face difficulties accessing the local markets.
The zonal development plan will therefore concentrate on the

upgrading and maintenance the existing road network as well as
the construction of new rural roads, with the active participation
of local communities.
Markets play a vital role in zonal economy but, in general,

market centres in the zone do not have adequate facilities and
services. It is therefore essential that there is a significant
improvement in market facilities and services, particularly in the
coffee producing areas. The facilities and services would include
shelter, water, storage, loading/unloading areas and toilets, as
well as market information and communication centres.
Improving market infrastructure is therefore an important
component of the zonal plan in an area with considerable
potential for agricultural and industrial development.
Electricity is an essential component of socioeconomic

development and a pre-condition for the development of the
industrial and service sectors. The expansion of electricity
supply in the zone will also encourage the community to engage
in different economic activities, particularly in urban areas.
Furthermore, pressure on forest resources will be reduced. In
addition to the provision of electricity to all urban areas, the
long term plan will also address the electricity requirements of
rural communities through the development of renewable
Improved telecommunications have a vital role to play in the

social and economic development of the zone. The zonal plan
therefore places considerable emphasis on development of
information communications technology (ICT) to improve
marketing systems and to disseminate information to
households with respect to available support services in
agriculture, education and health. These improvements are
critical to achieving rapid agricultural and industrial
development as well as improved public services.
It is important that education services are rapidly expanded to

available for economic development in the zone. The
improvement of primary and secondary education as well as
vocational training will therefore be given a high priority,
particularly within the rural areas. Formal and informal

education programmes would also be accessible to all
households within the zone. It is anticipated that school
enrolment will increase to 83% by 2035. There will also be
significant falls in student:teacher ratios with a substantial
increase in number of teachers employed (from 12,524 in 2008
to 27,871 in 2035).
Improving access to health facilities through greater coverage is

a core part of the zonal development plan. Upgrading the health
centres/posts and improving the professional skills and expertise
of health workers are also very important. Health care
programmes will comprise: (i) development of health facilities
and services in both urban and rural areas; (ii) expansion of
community health and family planning services; and (iii)
combating HIV/AIDS. During the Master Plan period, it is
centres/clinics will increase from 284 to 431 and the number of
health workers will almost treble (from 2,017 in 2008 to 3,066 in
2035).
Urban development in DZ 4 has been an on-going process for

decades and, in future, urbanisation in the zone will begin to
accelerate in line with economic growth, particularly in as
Awasa, Dila and Yirga Alem which are the largest towns in the
zone (populations greater than 40,000). The existing urban and
peri-urban centres will be strengthened through the planned
expansion of public services (e.g. education and health
facilities), infrastructure (e.g. roads, water supply, sanitation
and electricity) as well as transport and marketing facilities.
This would encourage private enterprises to invest in a wide
range of opportunities in the industrial and service sectors.
8.7.6 Development Zone 5: Eastern Mixed Farming Zone

Agricultural development is regarded as the one of principal
strategies to alleviate poverty, enhance household income and
sustain the natural resources within DZ 5. Agriculture is
primarily based on mixed farming systems which are either
cereal or enset based. A wide range of crops (including cereals,
pulses, enset, coffee, chat, vegetables and fruit) are cultivated,
but smallholders mainly use traditional production methods
which limit agricultural productivity.

Crop productivity can be significantly enhanced through: (i)
adoption of improved varieties, (ii) more efficient land
preparation techniques, (iii) use of organic and inorganic
fertilisers, (iv) integrated pest management, and (v)
strengthening links to potential markets. A crop diversification
plan will also be pursued and this will focus on the production of
pulses, vegetables and fruit crops for the domestic markets. A
complete development package comprising both intensification
and diversification is therefore required to rapidly increase crop
productivity and improve farm incomes.
Livestock production is an important part of the farming

systems in the zone and so must be a key component of the
agricultural development plan. However, the ability of
traditional livestock systems to feed local communities is
severely limited by low livestock productivity. Livestock
development interventions will therefore concentrate on the
improvement of breeding stock, better animal feed and forage
production, improved access to veterinary service, upgrading
livestock husbandry skills, and enhancing the network of
livestock markets.

development plan. Consequently, in the short term, the
agricultural services but, in the medium to long term, the
services would be provided by farmers’ co-operatives and the
private sector.
It is anticipated that food crop production will markedly

increase from 0.14 to 0.56 million tonnes per annum during the
Master Plan period, and the zone will become a food exporter.
The food crop area is expected to expand significantly from
44,522 ha to 88,413 ha, and average crop yield is estimated to
rise from 3.1 t/ha to 6.4 t/ha. In addition, the livestock
population will be reduced from 0.46 to 0.42 million TLUs. This
decline in the livestock population will be offset by a
corresponding increase in livestock productivity, but the zone
will probably become an importer of livestock products.

The water resources plan will focus on the efficient utilisation of
the scare water resources for both economic and social
development within the zone. In this context, the provision of
urban and rural water supply for domestic and livestock use, as
well as for agricultural purposes, will make a significant
contribution to overcoming the limitations imposed on
development by water shortages.
The vast majority of the population in DZ 5 do not have access

to a safe and adequate supply of water. To meet the demand for
clean water, priority will therefore be given to rural
communities which experience chronic water shortages. The
development of groundwater, with acceptable quality, will play
an important role in the supply of potable water. In addition,
sources such as perennial rivers and streams should be used for
water supply purposes. It is anticipated that 75% of the
population in DZ 5 will have access to clean water by 2035.
Water development for agricultural purposes needs to be

focused on rainwater harvesting and water conservation. The
available seasonal rainfall and runoff from adjacent highlands
should be stored in traditional and improved physical structures,
and efficiently utilised for agricultural production by applying
appropriate techniques.

Sheet erosion in hill areas and gully erosion in lowland areas are
the main types of soil erosion in the Gelana watershed located in
DZ 5. Afforestation and other appropriate watershed
management interventions are therefore required, to conserve
the topsoil in the hills and other vulnerable areas. In lowland
areas, where wind erosion is a problem, maintaining the
available vegetation cover is critical for natural resource
conservation.
To meet the rapidly expanding demand for fuelwood and timber,

there will be a substantial expansion of community woodlots,
farm forestry and peri-urban plantations. During the Master
Plan period, it is expected that DZ 5 will become a significant
exporter of woody biomass with the area of woodlots and
plantations expected to expand from 32,574 ha to 140,889 ha.

Furthermore, the conservation plan will focus on the protection
of natural forests and woodlands within the zone, such as
Mediba Forest in Bule Hora.
Lake Abaya is the main fishing area and, provided a regulatory

and licensing system is introduced to manage fish stocks, there
is some potential to expand fish production. To achieve this
potential, fishermen could be provided with technical support
and improved fishing gear. In addition, the losses resulting from
fish spoilage should be reduced by improvements to the shore
facilities, i.e. handling, storage and transport of fish. To meet
the growing urban demand, it is estimated that fish production
in the zone could increase from 167 to 429 tonnes/annum
between 2008 and 2035. There is also some potential to expand
apiculture enterprises, and honey production is expected to
increase from 150 to 222 tonnes/annum in the zone, as a result
of improved support services and greater integration with agro-
forestry activities.
Wildlife biodiversity within DZ 5 has diminished due to

deforestation, land degradation, illegal hunting and migration.
The conservation of natural forests, expansion of tree
plantations and increased fish stocks will help to mitigate this
decline.
Economic diversification is a key feature of the zonal
development plan which will primarily focus on encouraging a
rapid expansion of income and employment opportunities in the
non-farm sector in DZ 5. The potential agro-industries will
include grain/flour mills, vegetable/fruit processing, coffee
factories and furniture manufacture. The availability of water
supply, electricity and telecommunication services, as well as
the improved road and market infrastructure, will provide an
incentive for private investment in agro-processing enterprises
to supply the rapidly growing urban centres in DZ 4, e.g. Awasa
and Dila, which are within easy reach of the zone. The large
livestock population and improved public infrastructure would
also encourage private investors to establish slaughter houses
and small meat processing plants.

Through backward and forward linkages, the emergence of
agro-industries in the zone will also result in an expansion of
service and ancillary enterprises such as trading, transport,
construction, shop keeping, hotel/catering etc. Micro and small
enterprises would be actively involved in this expansion, so
emphasis will be given to supporting MSEs through training and
micro-credit programmes. Household income sources in the
zone will then be diversified, which would improve the capacity
of the local people to meet their basic needs.

The main truck road from Addis Ababa to Moyale passes close to
the boundary of DZ 5, but the remaining road network is very
poor and a major constraint to development within the zone. The
inter-wereda and inter-kebeles roads should therefore be
upgraded and new roads constructed to improve access to
market facilities and public services.
A new east-west link road from Arba Minch to the main north-
south trunk road (i.e. Addis Ababa to Moyale) and a new all
weather gravel road from Konso to Chelelektu and Fiseha Genet
are proposed and these will pass through DZ 5. It is also
recommended that a link road from Hagere Mariam to Soyama
and Konso is rehabilitated; this will facilitate access in the
southern part of DZ 5. These new roads linking DZ 5 to DZ 6, as
well as to DZ 4 and the main north-south highway, will
significantly improve access in the zone, thereby enhancing
economic development.
There are also a number of regional roads in the zone which

require rehabilitation and upgrading. The zonal development
plan will therefore concentrate on the upgrading and
maintenance the existing road network, as well as the
construction of new rural roads with the active participation of
local communities.
Markets play a vital role in zonal economy, but market centres in

the zone have poor facilities and services. It is therefore critical
that there is a significant improvement in market facilities.
These facilities include shelter, water, storage,
loading/unloading areas and toilets as well as market
information centres.

Rapid economic development requires that electricity and
telephone facilities are readily available at a reasonable price. In
this zone, access to reliable electricity and telecommunications
is very poor. A high priority must therefore be give to providing
these facilities to ensure that economic and social development
is not hampered.
Inaccessibility of education and health facilities is one of the

main factors limiting development in the zone. The rapid
expansion of primary and secondary schools, as well as
vocational centres, is therefore urgently required. This is
necessary to enhance the capacity of local communities to
participate fully in the future development of the zone, and to
increase their incomes and food security. It is therefore
anticipated that school enrolment will increase to 75% by 2035.
There will also be significant falls in student:teacher ratios, with
a substantial increase in number of teachers employed (from
1,144 in 2008 to 6,248 in 2035).
The expansion of health services in all localities will also make a

significant contribution to reducing human poverty as well as
mitigating population growth through family planning
programmes. During the Master Plan period, it is estimated that
the number of health centres/clinics will increase from 53 to
162, and the number of health workers will almost treble (from
157 in 2008 to 451 in 2035).
8.7.7 Development Zone 6: Southern Mixed Faming Zone

The southern mixed farming zone is characterised by a
combination of cereal based lowland mixed farming and enset
based mixed farming systems. Mixed farming is a
complementary system, in which small-scale crop and livestock
production are managed side by side. Crop production is
dominant in areas with better moisture availability, while
livestock production in more important in relatively drier areas.
Farmers are cultivating a very wide range of crops including
cereals, pulses, oilseeds, enset, coffee, chat, roots, vegetables
and fruit. However, farmers are still using traditional production
methods which seriously limit agricultural productivity. This

clearly reflects the considerable potential for agricultural
In addition, rainfall variability adversely affects crop production

in this zone; in some areas, rainfall is insufficient for crop
production. Where there are adequate water resources, the
development of small and medium scale irrigation schemes will
therefore play an important role in enhancing and stabilising
crop production. Furthermore, there is potential to expand the
irrigated area using groundwater resources; this should also be
explored when identifying suitable areas for development.
The agricultural development plan is therefore designed to

address the main production constraints such as uneven rainfall
distribution, outdated production techniques, poor extension
services and inaccessible credit facilities, in order to intensify
crop production. This crop intensification plan would focus on:
(i) introduction of better tillage practices to conserve soil
moisture, (ii) supply of improved seeds adapted to the local
conditions, (iii) use of organic and inorganic fertilisers, (iv)
integrated pest management, (v) development of small and
medium-scale irrigation schemes as well as irrigation at
household level for horticulture and irrigation, and (vi) improved
processing and marketing facilities.
A crop diversification plan will also be pursued and this will

concentrate on the production of cash crops such as cotton,
oilseeds, pulses, coffee, vegetables and fruit. A complete
development package comprising both intensification and
diversification is therefore required to rapidly increase crop
production in this high potential zone. Changing from the
subsistence mode of production into market oriented agriculture
will also be critical to achieving sustainable agricultural
There are a number of large scale, commercial farms in DZ 6,

mainly producing cereals, oilseed and pulse crops in rainfed
areas as well as cotton and vegetables on irrigated land. The
zone has large areas which are suitable for mechanised farming
systems, so the plan will focus on the provision of agricultural
machinery services as well as improving the technical and
managerial skills of farm managers.

Livestock production is an integral part of the farming systems
in the zone and, in the southern lowlands areas, is the major
livelihood base of agro-pastoralists. Livestock are a key
component of the agricultural development plan and future
interventions should primarily focus on improving livestock
productivity and expanding forage resources. Livestock
development in DZ 6 will therefore concentrate on the
improvement of breeding stock, better animal feed and forage
production, access to veterinary service, improving market
network, and upgrading livestock husbandry skills.

development plan. Consequently, in the short to medium term,
the government would take a leading role in the provision of
these agricultural services but, in the long term, the services
would be provided by farmers’ co-operatives and the private
sector.
It is anticipated that food crop production in DZ 6 will increase

substantially from 0.86 to 3.66 million tonnes per annum during
the Master Plan period. The zone will therefore become the
principal food exporter in RVLB, with exports increasing from
0.21 million tonnes/annum to 1.41 million tonnes/annum. To
achieve this increased production, the food crop area is
expected to expand from 342,000 ha to 681,500 ha.
Furthermore, average crop yield is estimated to increase from
2.5 t/ha to 5.4 t/ha.
The livestock population will also reduce from 1.04 to 0.90
million TLUs. This decline in the livestock population will be
offset by a corresponding increase in livestock productivity, but
the zone will probably become a substantial importer of
livestock products.
Water Resource Development

The majority of the urban population in DZ 6 have access to a
reliable water supply. Most urban water supply systems are
operating satisfactorily but require upgrading, e.g. Arba Minch,
but some do not provide adequate coverage, e.g. Gidole. The

rural population in DZ 6 generally depend on unprotected wells
and ponds for domestic water use. Rehabilitation and expansion
of the urban water supply systems would be the main focus of
the development plan, followed by and an expansion of water
supply facilities in the rural areas to achieve full coverage by
2035. The management of existing urban water supply systems
will also be improved. Groundwater would be the main source of
water, but pumping from rivers may be necessary in the drier
areas.

with more than 25,000 people, full sanitation and wastewater
hygiene education, as well as the construction of pit latrines at
both household and community levels.
The zone has suitable areas for irrigation development by river

diversion and/or dam construction, and there are numerous
small and medium scale irrigation schemes. The development
plan would therefore focus on establishment of economically
viable, sustainable and environmentally sound irrigation
schemes that would not compromise the downstream users. A
number of small and medium scale irrigation schemes are
proposed for feasibility study and possible implementation
during the Master Plan period, namely:
 Lower Weito River Irrigation Expansion Project (7,500 ha);

 Bezo Irrigation Project (4,000 ha);
 Upper Segen Multi-purpose Project (3,500 ha);
 Lower Segen Multi-purpose Project (6,000 ha);
 Sile River Irrigation Multi-purpose Project (2,000 ha);
 Sego River Irrigation Multi-purpose Project (3,500 ha);
 Iyanda Gato Irrigation Development Project (2,300 ha); and
 Iyanda Faro Irrigation Development Project (3,000 ha).
It will not be possible to implement all the above schemes as the

expansion of irrigated land will be limited by availability of
sustainable water resources. Nevertheless, it is estimated that
the irrigated area in DZ 6 would increase by about 7,482 ha

(from 6,323 ha to 13,805 ha) during the Master Plan period. It is
also recommended that the existing schemes are upgraded and
more effective irrigation technologies are introduced to enhance
water use efficiency. This will be combined improved
agricultural support services and better marketing systems.

Land degradation and soil erosion can cause severe problems
within the zone, with gully and sheet erosions being the
dominant types. In the erosion prone areas of the various
watersheds which lie within DZ 6, namely Burji-Amaro, Segen,
Konso, Bezo-Weito, Sile-Chamo and Kulifo-Gina, there has been
significant soil loss on the steep to very steep slopes of the
highlands, where the degree of erosion hazard ranges from
moderately high to very high. The SWC measures would
primarily focus on reducing erosion damage and the
conservation of soil moisture by maintaining vegetative cover.
Both structural and vegetative measures would be required to
reduce soil erosion and maintain soil fertility on the moderately
steep to very steep slopes. For areas with moderate levels of soil
rotations. Furthermore, the existing indigenous knowledge, e.g.
traditional soil conservation measures adopted by farmers in the
Konso area, would also be used to mitigate erosion hazards.
The plan will focus on the expansion of community woodlots and

farm forestry as well as the development of peri-urban
plantations to meet demand for fuelwood and timber from urban
areas such as Arba Minch and Gidole. Encouraging the private
sector to invest in industrial timber plantations, e.g. within
Dirashe and Kemba, will further contribute to expansion of
forest resources within the zone.
There are a number of forest priority areas in DZ 6 including

Kemba Forest and Park Forest in Arba Minch Zuria. It is
recommended that Yayebel Forest in Dirashe and Waliya Forest
in Burji are also designated as forest priority areas. The
conservation plan would therefore combine improved forest
management with community participation, to ensure the future

sustainability of the resource. There are some community based
conservation activities in the highland areas, but these would
rapidly expand with the introduction of programmes to conserve
these forests. The protection and sustainable management of
natural forests will therefore be a key component of the forestry
plan. Moreover, the introduction of more efficient wood stoves
will help to reduce the adverse impact on forest resources.
During the Master Plan period, it is expected that DZ 6 will
become a net exporter of woody biomass and the area of
woodlots and plantations is estimated to expand from 97,980 ha
to 230,657 ha.
Apiculture also has good development potential, and honey

production is expected to increase from 781 to 1,900
tonnes/annum in the zone between 2005 and 2035, as a result of
improved support services and greater integration of
horticultural and agro-forestry activities.
Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo are the main fishing areas. There
is some concern about overfishing, particularly in Lake Chamo
where the Nile perch stocks have declined markedly. However, if
a regulatory and licensing system is introduced to manage fish
stocks, there is some potential to expand fish production. To
achieve this potential, fishermen could be provided with
technical support and improved fishing gear. In addition, the
losses resulting from fish spoilage should be reduced by
improvements to the shore facilities, i.e. handling, processing,
storage and transport of fish. To meet the growing urban
demand, it is estimated that fish production in the zone could
increase from 2,177 to 12,373 tonnes/annum between 2005 and
2035.
In addition, crocodiles are reared at the Arba Minch Crocodile

Range. The objectives of the ranch are to earn foreign currency
from the sales of crocodile skins and to conserve the wild
crocodile population through releasing captive crocodiles into
suitable habitats. While there may be potential to increase
production, the level of increase will depend on international
markets which will always be relatively small. Crocodile farming
represents about 1/1000 of a percent of RGDP at present and
even if it doubles will not contribute greatly.

Wildlife resources in the zone are diminishing due to land
degradation and encroachment. The Nech Sar National Park
(NSNP) includes parts of Lakes Abaya and Chamo, as well as the
adjacent land between them. The park was established in 1975
and has a wide range of diverse habitats including riparian
forest, water bodies, grassy plains, scrub vegetation, acacia
wood land, bush land, swamp land and mountains. NSNP is
under threat from habitat destruction due to land degradation of
the Nech Sar plains, bush encroachment, forest fires and
overgrazing. The diverse species of wildlife including mammals,
birds, reptiles, amphibians are therefore in decline. The
sustainable development of NSNP, with the full participation of
local communities, is therefore one of the main components of
the wildlife conservation plan for the zone, and African Parks plc
is currently implementing the park’s management plan.
Economic diversification is a key feature of the development
plan in DZ 6, and the expansion of agro-industrial activities will
help to reduce underemployment and enhance the household
incomes. A range of crop and livestock processing plants will
emerge to add value to the surplus agricultural produce. The
agro-industries will include grain/flour mills, edible oil plants,
vegetable/fruit processing plants, slaughterhouses and meat
processing factories as well as dairy processing plants.
Furthermore, timber mills and other forest based industries,
such as furniture manufacture, also have great potential to meet
local demand and widen livelihood opportunities at suitable
locations such as Gidole and Kemba. In addition, there will be an
expansion of the existing cotton ginneries, textile mills and
garment factories located in Arba Minch.
This agro-industrial development will generate both formal and

informal job opportunities for a significant proportion of the
zonal population. The emergence of agro-industries in the zone
will also result in rapid expansion of service and ancillary
enterprises such as carpentry, metalwork, machinery services,
construction, quarrying, transport, trading, shop keeping and
hotel/catering. Micro and small enterprises would be actively
involved in this expansion, which would be facilitated by the
provision of credit facilities and training.

In most of the urban centres, the availability of electricity,
improved road and market infrastructure, will also provide an
incentive for private enterprises to invest in agro-processing. In
addition, many of the existing factories require modernisation to
improve their competitiveness and there is a need to improve
the managerial and technical capacity of the industrial
workforce through technical and vocational training. The
establishment of fully serviced work places in the urban areas
will also encourage the private sector to invest in new industrial
enterprises.
DZ 6 also has a number of important tourist attractions

including: (i) Nech Sar National Park for wildlife and eco-
tourism, (ii) Arba Minch for leisure pursuits, cultural festivals
and conferences, and (iii) Konso for landscape, living culture
and hot springs. At present, the management and marketing of
these tourist attractions is satisfactory, but there is still a need
to improve the standard of accommodation, services and
facilities. Local communities should also be more fully involved
in tourism development through the provision of facilities and
services. Finally, a tourist information centre needs to be
established in Arba Minch to promote tourism in DZ 6.

Despite recent improvements to the trunk and link roads, road
infrastructure in DZ 6 is still inadequate. The wereda capitals
are inter-connected by all weather gravel roads, but these
require frequent maintenance and are often damaged. Road
damage after heavy rains is also a common phenomenon,
particularly in lowland parts of the zone. The zone has
tremendous potential and would be one of the focal points for
future agricultural and industrial activities in the Basin.
However, to realise this potential, a high standard road network
is essential. Up-grading the existing roads and construction of
new roads are therefore top development priorities.
The truck road from Alaba to Arba Minch is due to be upgraded

under the present road programme, while the new truck road
from Arba Minch to Jinka is under construction. The link road
from Konso to Yabelo will also be rehabilitated. New all weather
gravel roads are planned from Arba Minch to Kemba, Sawla and

Amesa as well as from Konso to Chelelektu and Fiseha Genet. It
is also recommended that a new east-west link road from Arba
Minch to the main north-south trunk road (i.e. Addis Ababa to
Moyale) is constructed, and the link road from Hagere Mariam
to Soyama and Konso is rehabilitated. These improvements to
the main roads linking DZ 6 to other DZs in RVLB (as well as to
other regions of Ethiopia) will accelerate future development
within the zone.
There are also a number of regional roads in the zone which

require rehabilitation and upgrading. In addition, due to the
poor condition of the rural feeder roads, (which are impassable
during the wet season), farmers face difficulties accessing the
local markets. The zonal development plan will therefore
concentrate on the upgrading and maintenance the existing
road network as well as the construction of new rural roads with
the active participation of local communities.
Markets play a vital role in zonal economy but, in general,

market centres in the zone do not have adequate facilities and
services. It is therefore vital that there is a notable improvement
in market facilities and services. The facilities and services
would include shelter, water, storage, loading/unloading areas
and toilets as well as market information and communication
centres. These improvements to the market infrastructure are
critical to achieving a modern and fully functional marketing
system to facilitate economic development in the zone.
Access to information requires reliable telecommunications, so

high priority should be given to the expansion of telecom and
internet services. These networks would make a major
contribution to education/training programmes, market
information exchange and providing information on public
services. Improvements in telecommunications are therefore
critical to achieving rapid agricultural and industrial
development, as well as improved public services.
The expansion of electricity supply in the zone will also facilitate

economic development. In addition to the provision of electricity
to all urban areas, the zonal plan will increase the supply of
electricity to rural areas through the development of renewable

It is also vital that education services are rapidly expanded, to
available for economic development in the zone. High priority
will therefore be given to the expanding primary, secondary and
tertiary education services, particularly within the rural areas. It
is anticipated that school enrolment will increase to 83% by
2035. There will also be significant falls in student:teacher
ratios with a substantial increase in number of teachers
employed (from 6,330 in 2008 to 33,300 in 2035).
With regard to health services, the main focus of the

development plan would be on preventive measures and family
health care administered through hospitals and health
centres/clinics. The rapid expansion of hospitals and health
centres/clinics, as well as up-grading the health workers’ skills,
are therefore required to rapidly expand the coverage of health
and family planning services in the zone. During the Master Plan
period, it is estimated that the number of hospitals and health
health workers will almost treble (from 1,180 in 2008 to 5,280 in
2035).
The urban population is growing rapidly, particularly in Arba

Minch which is the largest town in the zone. The main focus of
the urban development plan will be the upgrading the existing
public facilities including roads, water supply, electrical power,
market centres and transport. This would encourage the private
enterprises to invest in a wide range of opportunities in the
industrial and service sectors.
8.7.8 Development Zones 7 and 8: Pastoral Zones of SNNP and

Oromiya
Within the pastoral zones of DZ 7 (SNNPRS) and DZ 8
(Oromiya), the agricultural sector will be the main focus of
development to enhance income and employment opportunities,
and to sustain the natural resource base. Agriculture is almost
exclusively based on pastoral and agro-pastoral farming systems
which cover over 80% of the area, with either enset or lowland
cereal mixed farming systems accounting for a further 10% to
14%.

Livestock production is the major livelihood base, but the
carrying capacity of the natural rangeland has been seriously
undermined by soil erosion, overgrazing, bush encroachment,
and population pressure. The traditional animal husbandry
systems are not able to meet the basic needs of the community
under the present circumstances. This has resulted in declining
livestock production and unsustainable rural livelihoods. To
alleviate the deep rooted poverty in the zones, the agricultural
development plan will therefore focus on: (i) enhancement of
livestock productivity, (ii) forage improvement, and (iii) better
water resources management.
Improving livestock productivity is a prerequisite for

agricultural development in these pastoral zones. This, however,
will require a change in the attitude of livestock owners towards
raising productivity rather than increasing livestock numbers.
Measures to improve productivity should include the expansion
of veterinary services and improved livestock forage. Forage
development through improved rangeland management and
controlled grazing will also play a critical role in the more
efficient use of scarce land and water resources, and will help to
reduce overgrazing. Forage development will include the
introduction of: (i) improved forage seeds, (ii) effective
rainwater harvesting techniques, (iii) moisture conserving
tillage practices, and (iv) better forage conservation and
storage.
Crop production is also an important livelihood activity for agro-

pastoralists. Cropping systems are almost exclusively rainfed,
but some farmers also practice irrigated farming by pumping or
diverting water from streams/rivers as well as by employing
rainwater harvesting techniques. However, the crop productivity
can be significantly improved through: (i) introduction of new
varieties adapted to local conditions, (ii) efficient soil moisture
conservation techniques, (iii) upgrading the skills of agro-
pastoralists, and (iv) directly linking crop production to potential
markets. Dryland farming, which efficiently utilises the scarce
rainfall and seasonal flooding, is the most suitable system in
these zones. The introduction of drought resistance crop
varieties will also be given high priority.

Improved support services would be a key feature of the
agricultural development plan. Agricultural support services
would include: (i) training and extension services, (ii) supply of
improved seeds (both food and forage crops), (iii) veterinary
care, (iv) access to market information, (v) better credit
facilities, and (vi) efficient water conservation techniques.
Within DZ 7 and DZ 8 zone, the livestock population is expected

to reduce from 0.68 to 0.61 million TLUs, but this decline in the
livestock population will be offset by an increase in livestock
productivity. Nevertheless, as zonal demand increases, livestock
exports will gradually decline and the zones will become net
importers of livestock products in the long term. It is also
anticipated that food crop production will increase from 0.23 to
1.42 million tonnes per annum during the Master Plan period,
and both zones will become net exporters of food. The food crop
area in the two zones is expected to expand from 113,828 ha to
338,671 ha, and average crop yield is estimated to rise from 2.2
t/ha to 4.2 t/ha.

Chronic water shortage is one of the major factors limiting
development in DZ 7 and DZ 8. Clean water is inaccessible to
the majority of the population, who have to use unprotected
pond and river water for domestic purposes. Water supply, in
terms of both quality and quantity, is therefore the one of the
most critical economic and social problems facing pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities. The water resource development
plan is geared towards the efficient and economic utilisation of
groundwater, together with increasing the adoption of rainwater
harvesting techniques, for both human and livestock
consumption. In addition, water sources such as perennial rivers
and streams should be used for water supply purposes using
appropriate low cost pumping systems. It is anticipated that
79% of the population in DZ 7 and DZ 8 will have access to
clean water by 2035.
To address the livestock water problems, the plan also aims to

strengthen and improve the traditional water collection methods
and to enhance community water management skills. The
productivity of the existing water points will be increased

without affecting the fragile ecosystems around these sources
through overgrazing and trampling by livestock.
A few communities are practising crop cultivation on the banks

of rivers and in the depression areas. To enhance incomes,
small-scale irrigation to produce horticultural crops for local
markets will be encouraged. Furthermore, irrigated forage
production is very important during droughts to meet animal
feed shortages.
With regard to household irrigation technology, the plan would

encourage the efficient utilisation of the available runoff and
rain water. This would include the promotion of micro-ponds,
dug wells, shallow tubewells, traditional diversion schemes, and
roof water harvesting. In addition, in drier areas, irrigation
development would focus on rainwater harvesting and water
conservation. The available seasonal rainfall and runoff from
adjacent highlands would be stored in traditional and improved
physical structures, and then used for agricultural production.

It is evident that the natural resources are under severe threat
from overgrazing, encroachment of the rangeland by
unpalatable plants, and soil erosion in many parts of DZ 7 and
DZ 8. Traditional mitigation measures have been applied for
many years but, due to high population growth, these measures
have ceased to be effective. In both zones, the plan will focus on
the conservation of the natural habitats such as rangeland,
woodland and lakes/salt flats (such as Chew Bahir), and
emphasis will be given to mitigating land degradation by
reducing livestock pressure, controlled grazing and area
closure.
Sheet erosion in hill areas and gully erosion in lowland areas are
the main types of soil loss in the Bezo-Weito and Segen
watersheds located in the two zones. Afforestation and other
appropriate watershed management interventions are therefore
required to conserve the topsoil in the hills and other vulnerable
areas. In lowland areas, where wind erosion is also a problem,
maintaining the available vegetation cover is critical to the
conservation of the rangeland.

To meet the rapidly expanding demand for fuelwood and timber,
there will also be a substantial expansion of community
woodlots, farm forestry and peri-urban plantations. During the
Master Plan period, it is expected that DZ 7 and DZ 8 will
become significant exporters of woody biomass with the area of
woodlots and plantations expected to expand from 40,732 ha to
76,647 ha. Furthermore, the conservation plan will focus on the
protection of natural forests and woodlands within the zone; this
will require the active involvement of local communities, both
pastoral and agro-pastoral. Furthermore, unrestrained cutting
of trees and bushes would be mitigated by reducing the demand
for fuelwood through the introduction of improved stoves and
better charcoal production techniques.
There is also good potential to promote the production and

marketing of non-timber forest products, especially incense and
gum Arabic from aromatic species in the woodlands. The
presence of aromatic species (mainly Boswellia, Comiphora and
Acacia) provides an opportunity to diversify livelihood
opportunities for local communities, as well as to contribute to
the conservation of woodland resources. There is also some
potential to expand apiculture enterprises; honey production is
expected to increase from 448 to 700 tonnes/annum as a result
of improved support services and greater integration with agro-
forestry activities.
Wildlife resources in the two zones are diminishing due to land

degradation, encroachment into wildlife reserves and
uncontrolled hunting. To conserve wildlife biodiversity within
the zones, a number of measures are proposed including: (i)
zoning of protected areas; (ii) site-and-species specific
conservation to protect habitats of threatened species; and (iii)
introduction of sustainable rangeland management to mitigate
the depletion of wildlife habitats. However, to ensure economic
sustainability, wildlife conservation should be closely linked to
tourism development and closely involve the local communities.
The Chelbi Game Reserve, which is located in DZ 7 and DZ 8,

was established to provide protection for Grevy’s Zebra, Beisa
Oryx and Grant’s Gazelle. However, poaching by local ethnic
groups (such as Borena, Erbore and Hamer), as well as
recurrent droughts, have significantly reduced the numbers of

wildlife. The sustainable development of the game reserve, with
the full participation of local communities, is therefore one of
the main component of the wildlife conservation plan.
In order to reduce poverty significantly and provide income and
employment opportunities for a rapidly growing population,
economic diversification will be a vital component of the
development plan for DZ 7 and DZ 8. High priority should
therefore be placed on the rapid expansion of non-farm related
activities to create sustainable livelihoods, and so reduce the
proportion of the population dependent on livestock production.
Agro-industrial development utilising the abundant livestock
resources would be the cornerstone of this plan.
Slaughterhouses, meat processing factories, tanneries and
leather processing plants would be developed by the private
sector with financial incentives provided by the government.
These industries would create job opportunities for many young
pastoralists.
A range of crop processing plants will also emerge to add value

to the surplus crop production. The agro-industries will include
grain/flour mills, edible oil processing plants, and vegetable/fruit
processing facilities. Timber mills and other forest based
industries, such as small scale furniture manufacture, also have
great potential to meet local demand and widen employment
opportunities. Gum and incense processing is another potential
livelihood source, that would sustainably utilise the woodland
resources in these zones.
The emergence of agro-industries will ultimately lead to the

establishment of urban areas with private enterprises being
involved in manufacturing, construction and trading. Agro-
industrial development, which will have a strong poverty focus,
is therefore essential for the expansion of livelihood and
employment opportunities in both the urban and non-farm rural
sectors of the zones.
Support will also be given to micro and small scale enterprises

(MSEs) through training and micro-credit to expand
opportunities in ancillary industries and the service sector such
as carpentry, metalwork, construction, quarrying, transport,

trading, shop keeping and hotel/catering. Economic
diversification would also be combined with planned urban
development, in which adequate infrastructure and services,
e.g. houses, shops, roads, water supply, sanitation, health and
education facilities are made available to the people migrating
from the rural areas.

With regard to road infrastructure, DZ 7 and DZ 8 are the most
poorly developed areas in the Basin. Access to a good road
network is vital for development activities in the zone, so
improving the intra-zonal and inter-zonal roads is therefore an
essential component of the zonal plan. The link road from Konso
to Yabelo, which passes through DZ 8, will be upgraded to an all
weather gravel roads under the planned road programme. It is
also recommended that the road connecting Teltele to the
Konso-Yabelo link road, and the road connecting Hamer and
Bena Tsemay weredas to the Konso-Key Afar link road, are also
rehabilitated. This road development will facilitate access to DZ
6 and the main north-south trunk road (near Yabelo), thereby
enhancing economic development potential in DZ 7 and DZ8.
There are also a number of regional roads in the zones which

require rehabilitation and upgrading. The zonal development
plan will therefore concentrate on the upgrading and
maintenance the existing road network as well as the
construction of new rural roads with the active participation of
local communities.
Markets play a vital role in zonal economy, but market centres in

the two zones have poor facilities and services. Market
infrastructure therefore requires substantial upgrading; this will
be combined with improved management of main and subsidiary
livestock markets. Pastoralists will thus be encouraged to sell
their livestock in local markets, so that the RVLB will benefit
from the substantial livestock resources in DZ 7 and DZ 8.
Electricity supply is also an essential service and the

transmission of electricity to urban areas will encourage the
local community and private sector to invest in agro-industry
and service enterprises. Similarly, there is an urgent need to
expand telecommunication facilities rapidly; at present, these

are only available in wereda capitals. A high priority must
therefore be given to providing such facilities, in order to ensure
that economic and social development is not hampered.
Education will play an indispensable role in socioeconomic

development of the zone. At present, the enrolment rates and
accessibility of education facilities are poor. The zonal plans will
therefore include: (i) increasing numbers of primary and
secondary schools and vocational centres, (ii) reducing the
student-teacher ratios, (iii) expanding coverage to remote areas
through mobile classrooms, and (iv) increasing the accessibility
of education materials. It is therefore anticipated that school
enrolment will increase to 75% by 2035. There will also be
significant falls in student:teacher ratios, with a substantial
increase in number of teachers employed (from 1,582 in 2008 to
11,036 in 2035) within the two zones.
Adequate health facilities are also to reducing poverty and

securing sustainable development. The zonal plan will focus on
preventive health care, family planning and increasing health
coverage by establishing additional health centres/posts. The
expansion of health services in all localities will make a
significant contribution to reducing poverty as well as mitigating
population growth through family planning programmes. During
the Master Plan period, it is estimated that the number of health
health workers will rise (from 179 in 2008 to 671 in 2035)
within the two zones.
8.8 Urban Development
8.8.1 Existing Situation

The RVLB is primarily rural, with about 87% of the population
lives in the rural areas and the remaining 13% residing in urban
centres. Although the level of urbanisation is currently low,
there is a high rate of urban population growth which is
estimated to average around 5% to 6% per annum.
The present level of urbanisation within each of development

zone (DZ) is given in Table 8.3. It can be seen that there is a
considerable variation between the DZs, ranging from 1.0% of

total population in DZ 5, which is almost exclusively rural, to
17.3% of total population in DZ 1. The urban population is
concentrated in DZ3 and DZ 4 which accounts for 61% of the
Basin’s urban population, i.e. 0.77 million out of 1.26 million.
The size distribution of towns also shows the relatively low level
of urban development which currently exists within the Basin
(see Table 8.4). Firstly, there are only 7 out of 114 urban
centres with populations in excess of 50,000, and the largest
town in the Basin (i.e. Awasa, the regional capital of SNNPRS) is
the only town with a population of over 100,000. Secondly, 75%
of towns lie within in the size categories up to 10,000 people. In
addition, there is a tendency towards a concentration of the
urban population in a few larger towns, with the majority of the
urban population residing in 13 towns with populations in excess
of 20,000. The proportion of towns found in the higher size
categories is only 12%, but these towns account for 55% of the
Basin’s urban population.
Table THE MASTER PLAN.46: Present level of

urbanisation by development zone (2005)
Development zone Urban Urban
population population as
(2005) % of Total
DZ 1: North East
146,859 17.3%
Highland
DZ 2: North Central
187,074 15.8%
Lowland
DZ 3: North West
411,056 14.4%
Mixed Farming
DZ 4: Eastern
356,196 12.0%
Enset/Coffee
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed
3,500 1.0%
Farming
DZ 6: Southern Mixed
139,440 10.2%
Farming
DZ 7: Pastoral Zone –
11,395 6.7%
SNNP
4,934 11.8%
Oromiya

Total 1,260,454 12.9%
Source: SNNPRS and Oromiya Regional Statistical Abstracts
Table THE MASTER PLAN.47: Present size distribution

of urban centres in RVLB (2005)
Population Number % Total Urban % Total
size of urban number population urban
category centres urban population
centres
< 2,000 17 14.9% 20,463 1.6%
2,000 –
40 35.1% 136,965 10.9%
5,000
5,000 –
29 25.4% 208,480 16.5%
10,000
10,000 –
15 13.2% 200,572 15.9%
20,000
20,000 –
6 5.3% 190,061 15.1%
50,000
50,000 –
6 5.3% 385,876 30.6%
100,000
> 100,000 1 0.9% 118,037 9.4%
Total 114 100.0% 1,260,454 100.0%
The spatial distribution of towns shows that most towns are

located in DZ 3 (see Table 8.5), but a high proportion of towns
within this zone are small (i.e. less than 10,000). The other
zones with a significant number of towns are DZ 1, DZ 4 and DZ
6; these levels of urbanisation will provide a sound foundation
for the development of the industrial and service sectors there.
In contrast, the notable lack of urban centres in DZ 5, DZ 7 and
DZ 8 indicates that these zones have very limited access to
public services and so do not, at present, have the basis for
economic diversification and significant livelihood improvement.

Table THE MASTER PLAN.48: Spatial distribution of urban
population by DZ (2005)
Development zone Population size category
< 2,000 5,000 10,000 20,000 50,000 > Total
2,000 – – - – - 100,00
5,000 10,000 20,000 50,000 100,00 0
0
DZ 1: North East Highland 2 8 2 3 0 1 0 16
DZ 2: North Central
1 4 1 2 2 1 0 11
Lowland
DZ 3: North West Mixed
5 15 11 6 3 2 0 42
Farming
DZ 4: Eastern Enset/Coffee 0 6 9 3 1 1 1 21
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Farming
5 3 6 1 0 1 0 16
Farming
4 2 0 0 0 0 0 6
SNNP
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Oromiya
Total 17 40 29 15 6 6 1 114
Most urban centres in the Basin are characterised by unplanned

and haphazard development due to the lack of urban planning
by regional governments and municipalities. Housing is a key
issue, and urban centres are unable to provide sufficient
housing for their rapidly growing populations. The provision of
public services, e.g. water supply and sanitation, schools,
hospitals, health centres, roads, markets, power supply and
telecommunications is also inadequate and severely hampered
by poorly planned infrastructure. This is further exacerbated by
the limited capacity of regional, zonal and municipal
administrations to plan and manage urban development in a
coordinated manner.
Rapid economic development in the RVLB is dependant on

industrial and urban growth which will be primarily driven by
private sector investment in a wide range of industrial
enterprises. The availability of satisfactory urban infrastructure
and public services is a key factor influencing the level of

private investment, so sound urban planning is a prerequisite to
industrial and economic development of the Basin.
Urban development therefore plays an important role in an

economy dominated by smallholder agriculture which cannot be
the principal economic driver. The development of the industrial
and service activities in urban centres is the main engine for
economic growth in RVLB, and these sectors will contribute an
increasing proportion of the overall gross domestic product as
an economy develops. Urban centres also provide income and
employment opportunities for the rural population, and there
will be a switch from low productivity to higher productivity
activities with the resultant improvement in household incomes.
Small towns, in particular, have a key role to play in curbing
migration to large cities and providing income and employment
opportunities for the rural population. Furthermore, agricultural
development requires urban centres to provide markets,
processing facilities and support services.
8.8.2 Exiting Urban Hierarchy

People require public services to maintain and improve their
living conditions. Certain public services, such as
primary/secondary schools, hospitals/health centres, markets,
public transport, electricity and telecommunications can be
found in larger urban centres. However, many key services are
not available in small towns and villages.
In urban and rural centre planning, it is assumed that there is

some order in the types of services being provided for different
sizes of settlement. For instance, while primary schools may be
found in many villages, senior secondary schools are usually
located in towns and universities are only sited in a few large
towns and cities. A similar structure of services exists in the
health sector. There may be larger clinics in small or medium
sized villages, but health centres tend to be located in towns,
while hospitals are only found in the larger towns and
municipalities. Comparable hierarchies also apply to services
such as piped water supply, electricity, telecommunications and
public transport. It is, however, evident that most smallholders
and pastoralists cannot afford higher level services, e.g.
hospitals, secondary schools, electricity and
telecommunications, so these services have higher ‘threshold

values’. Nevertheless, the higher order services are essential for
the development of the Basin economy as a whole, and
especially for the growth of the industrial and commercial
sectors within urban centres.
The fact that there is some order in the provision of public

services, and that it is possible to detect different levels of
services in a development centre, has given rise to the concept
of the urban centre hierarchy. Theoretically, at least four distinct
tiers can be distinguished:
 regional cities with higher level services (Tier 1)

 large towns with good services (Tier 2)
 medium towns with some services (Tier 3)
 small towns with few services (Tier 4) and
 very small towns with few services (Tier 5).
It should also be noted that there is usually a 3:1 ratio with

regard to the number of centres of a certain tier compared to
the number of centres the next highest tier. With the exception
of Tier 5, which represents towns below 2,000 people, this
guideline generally applies.
In a homogeneous, relatively flat area, these urban centres

would show a regular pattern. Gradually, as development takes
place, the road network also grows and more cross links come
into existence. In reality, however, the settlement pattern is
always different because of physical barriers, such as the
mountainous areas in the highlands and deeply incised rivers. In
general, the number and level of services available in the Basin
is still low and there are large parts of the Basin, particularly in
the southern pastoral areas, which are very poorly served and
have few, if any, higher level services available. Furthermore,
although the distribution of services correlates with population
density, it is often irregular. The settlement pattern is therefore
bound to differ significantly from the “ideal” pattern.
The grading and ranking of towns in the Basin can also help to
identify the gaps in the existing roads network and the level of
services available. It should be emphasised that this ranking of
urban centres only depicts the existing situation and does not
assess whether the centres are in an appropriate

position/location to provide the services required for the
population within their catchment area. However, the existing
urban centre hierarchy and the precise locations of the centres
do help to identify major deficiencies in the availability of public
services, and so provides a useful guide for urban planning. In
addition, with information on ongoing and future development
activities and their location (e.g. development zones), priorities
can be set for improving and upgrading specific development
centres in support of these sector interventions.
Future urban settlement plans depends on the existing

settlement hierarchy and should also reflect the potential
development as indicated in the zonal development plans.
Determining the existing settlement hierarchy entails the
establishment of grades of settlement in the Basin. All
settlements in the Basin classified as towns in 2005 have been
included in the grading and ranking of urban centres. The towns
in the Basin were then grouped into the following categories, in
accordance with the population size and the range of public
services provided.
Tier 1: Regional Cities - population greater than 100,000 with

higher level services;
Tier 2: Large Towns - population between 50,000 and 100,000
with good services;
Tier 3: Medium Towns - population between 10,000 and 50,000
with some services;
Tier 4: Small Towns - population between 2,000 and 10,000 with
few services;
Tier 5: Very Small Towns - population less than 2,000 with few
services.
The results of this assessment are given in Table 8.6 and it can
be seen that only Awasa is classified as Tier 1, while six towns
(i.e. Asela, Shashemene, Hossaina, Sodo, Dila and Arba Minch)
have been categorised as Tier 2. A total of 22 towns were
included in Tier 3 and the remaining 86 urban centres were
regarded as small or very small towns with few public services,
i.e. Tiers 4 and 5.

With the exception of the DZ 5, DZ 7 and DZ 8, it should also be
noted that at least one higher level town (Tier 1 and 2) is
located in each of the development zones as indicated below:
DZ 1: North West Highland Zone - Asela;

DZ 2: North Central Zone - Shashamene;
DZ 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone - Hossaina and Sodo;
DZ 4: Eastern Enset/Coffee Zone - Awasa and Dila;
DZ 6: Southern Mixed Farming Zone - Arba Minch
There are only small towns (i.e. population less than 5,000)
situated in DZ 5, DZ 7 and DZ 8. However, a number of medium
sized towns located just outside the Basin, e.g. Hagere Mariam
(DZ 5), Jinka (DZ 7) and Yabelo (DZ 8), all Tier 2 urban areas, do
provide facilities and services for the people living in these more
remote development zones.

Table THE MASTER PLAN.49: Existing hierarchy of
urban centres in RVLB (2005)
Town SNNPRS Oromiya region
category
Tier 1 Awasa
Sodo, Hossaina, Dila, Arba
Tier 2 Shashemene, Asela,
Minch
Alaba Kulito, Boditi, Butajira,
Durame, Shone, Morsito,
Bekoji, Iteya, Huruta, Arsi
Shone Mazoria, Wujigra,
Tier 3 Negele, Meki, Alem Tena,
Delbo, Aleta Wondo, Leku,
Kuyera.
Yirga Chefe, Yirga Alem,
Gedole,
Agena, Angacha, Arekit,
Bedesa, Bule
Cheza, Dalocha, Humbo
Tebela, Kibet,
Tora, Zefinie, Bule,
Chelelektu, Hagere Salam,
Kabado, Yaye, Birbir,
Chencha,
Gerese, Karat, Kellie, Kemba, Kersa, Adami Tulu, Leman,
Soyama, Ogolcho, Ropi, Gonde, Meraro,
Tier 4 Deyogena, Dimto, Kela, Borujawi, Ego, Sagure, Ajie,
Enseno, Wulbareg, Demboya, Kulumsa, Arb Gebeya, Goljota,
Lisana, Shanto, Mito, Chuko, Siltana, Tore,
Wendo Genet,
Solomo, Fiseha Genet,
Wenago, Teferi Kela, Abela,
Tore, Segen, Bulki, Gabo,
Funamura, Bilate, Shanto,
Tiyo, Funto, Tula, Gedeb,
Moricho, Fonko, Gazer, Tolter,
Teltele.
Dorze, Alkaso, Bles, Izo,
Werabe, Kebul, Mehal Amba,
Tier 5 Tijo, Harbe Chulule, Sirbo
Mlante, Wacho, Zada Dimeka,
Erbore, Turmi, Web Hamer
8.8.3 Future Urban Hierarchy

At an annual growth rate of between 5% and 6%, urban
population in RVLB is expected to increase from 1.3 million in
2005 to about 6.3 million by 2035. The projected growth of
urban development in RVLB is illustrated in Figure 8.1.

Figure THE MASTER PLAN.18: Projected growth of
urban centres

The projected level of urbanisation within each of development
zone (DZ) is given in Table 8.7. It can be seen that the urban
population as a proportion of the total population increases from
12.9% to 19.4%. There are also notable differences between the
DZs ranging from 1.3% in DZ 5 to 29.8% in DZ 1. Urban
population will be mainly concentrated in DZ2, DZ3 and DZ4
and, by 2035, the population within the urban centres of these
DZs will account for 76% of the Basin’s urban population.
Table THE MASTER PLAN.50: Projected level of

urbanisation by development zone (2035)
Development zone Urban Urban
population population as
(2035) % of total
population of
zone
DZ 1: North East Highland 734,254 26.8%
DZ 2: North Central
935,318 29.8%
Lowland
DZ 3: North West Mixed
1,937,511 23.1%
Farming
DZ 4: Eastern Enset/Coffee 1,783,376 24.2%
DZ 5: Eastern Mixed
16,000 1.3%
Farming
783,487 16.6%
Farming
DZ 7: Pastoral Zone – SNNP 53,450 4.8%
25,000 2.9%
Oromiya
Total 6,141,681 19.4%
Source: Consultant’s estimate based on CSA population projections.
The projected size distribution of towns also shows a

substantially higher level of urban development within the Basin
by 2035 (see Table 8.8). It is estimated that 24 out of 114 urban
centres will have populations in excess of 50,000, of which 12
towns are expected to grow to between 100,000 and 500,000. In
addition, Awasa’s population is projected to rise to over
550,000. It is also estimated that the proportion of towns found
in the higher size categories (i.e. over 50,000) will increase from

6% to 21%, and these towns will account for 66% of the Basin’s
urban population by 2035.

Table THE MASTER PLAN.51: Projected size
distribution of urban centres in RVLB (2035)
Population Number % Total Urban % Total
size of urban number population urban
category centres urban population
centres
< 5,000 5 4.4% 16,693 0.3%
5,000 – 10,000 14 12.3% 100,961 1.6%
10,000 –
27 23.7% 447,504 7.3%
20,000
20,000 –
44 38.6% 1,521,310 24.8%
50,000
50,000 –
11 9.6% 734,048 12.0%
100,000
> 100,000 13 11.4% 3,321,165 54.1%
Total 114 100.0% 6,141,681 100.0%
Source: Consultant’s estimate based on CSA population projections.
In order to determine the future hierarchy of the Basin towns,

the existing hierarchy was taken as the baseline. The population
projections as well as rates of economic and social development,
which are predicted over the Master Plan period, were then
applied to each of the major urban centres. The results of this
assessment are given in Table 8.9;.it can be seen that Awasa,
Sodo, Hossaina, Dila, Arba Minch, Alaba Kulito, Boditi, Butajira,
Shashemene, Asela, Arsi Negele, Yirga Alem and Meki are
expected to develop rapidly into Tier 1 municipalities.
It is also anticipated that Durame, Shone, Aleta Wondo, Leku,

Yirga Chefe, Gedole, Bekoji, Iteya, Huruta, Alem Tena and
Kuyera will expand to large urban centres (Tier 2), while 71
towns will develop into medium sized urban centres (Tier 3). All
remaining urban centres are likely to remain as small towns
(Tier 4) although there will be significant improvements in
public services and economic infrastructure.
It should also be noted that the following Tier 1 municipalities

will be located in the more urbanised development zones, as
indicated below:
DZ 1: North West Highland Zone - Asela
DZ 2: North Central Zone - Shashamene, Arsi Negele and Meki

DZ 3: North West Mixed Farming Zone - Hossaina, Sodo, Boditi,
Alaba Kulito and Butajira
DZ 4: Eastern Enset/Coffee Zone - Awasa, Dila and Yirga Alem
DZ 6: Southern Mixed Farming Zone - Arba Minch
Table THE MASTER PLAN.52: Future hierarchy of

urban centres in RVLB (2035)
Town SNNPRS region Oromiya region
category
Awasa, Sodo, Hossaina, Dila,
Shashemene, Asela, Arsi
Tier 1 Arba Minch, Alaba Kulito,
Negele, Meki,
Boditi, Butajira, Yirga Alem,
Durame, Shone, Aleta Wondo, Bekoji, Iteya, Huruta, Alem
Tier 2
Leku, Yirga Chefe, Gedole Tena, Kuyera
Morsito, Shone, Mazoria,
Wujigra, Delbo, Agena,
Angacha, Arekit, Bedesa,
Bule, Cheza, Dalocha, Humbo
Tebela, Kibet, Tora, Bule,
Chelelektu, Hagere Salam,
Kabado, Yaye, Birbir,
Chencha, Gerese, Karat, Kersa, Adami Tulu, Leman,
Kellie, Kemba, Soyama, Ogolcho, Ropi, Gonde, Meraro,
Tier 3 Deyogena, Dimto, Kela, Borujawi, Ego, Sagure, Ajie,
Enseno, Wulbareg, Demboya, Kulumsa, Arb Gebeya, Goljota,
Lisana, Shento, Mito, Chuko, Siltana, Tore
Wendo Genet, Solomo, Fiseha
Genet, Wenago, Teferi Kela,
Abela, Tore, Segen, Bulki,
Gabo, Funamura, Bilate,
Shanto, Tiyo, Funto, Tula,
Gedeb, Moricho, Fonko,
Gazer, Tolter, Teltele.
Zefinie, Dorze, Alkaso, Bles,
Izo, Werabe, Kebul, Mehal
Tier 4 Amba, Mlante, Wacho, Zada, Tijo, Harbe Chulule, Sirbo
Dimeka, Erbore, Turmi, Web
Hammer

8.9 Development Projects and Programmes
8.9.1 Project Identification

Following an assessment of the various constraints and
development opportunities within the different sectors, a
number of projects and programmes were identified for
inclusion in the Master Plan. The factors taken into account
during the identification of potential projects are: (i) the
available resources and existing socioeconomic situation within
different areas of the Basin, (ii) potential development
opportunities and constraints, (iii) interest of the communities
and stakeholders’ as expressed during PRA discussions, and (iv)
Consultant’s own observations. For inclusion in the Master Plan,
the project recommendations also needed to be primarily
focused on poverty reduction through sustainable development,
which is the overriding goal of the national development plan.
These projects were primarily aimed at: (i) overcoming the

production constraints within a particular geographical area; (ii)
exploiting the diverse opportunities for development among the
various economic sectors, and (iii) identifying interventions that
were considered appropriate for the sustainable and integrated
development of each development zone. The preferred projects
were selected after a period of evaluation based on the following
criteria:
 Implementation capacity and availability of required human

and financial resources;
 Legal and institution framework, as well as organisational
structure, required for the implementation of the
development plan; and
 Acceptability of proposed projects determined through
stakeholder consultations with government officials and the
local communities.
8.9.2 Proposed Project Portfolio

A total of 109 projects have been proposed for inclusion in the
Master Plan and these are listed in Table 8.10. The projects
have been identified through discussions with key stakeholders,
and finalised during the stakeholder consultations undertaken

throughout Phase 1 of the Master Plan Study. They therefore
correspond to the wishes and aspirations of the local
communities. The proposed projects have been grouped into the
following 7 categories: Water Resources, Natural Resources,
Energy and Power, Socioeconomy, Infrastructure/Industry,
Institutional Development and Environment. The estimated cost
of each project is also indicated in Table 8.10 (2008 prices).
Project Profiles for each proposed project have also been

prepared and these are presented in the RVLB Master Plan
Study, Phase 1 Report, Part 1B: Project Portfolio. The profiles
have been compiled in a standard format to provide information
on: (i) project location and development sector, (ii)
implementing agencies and previous project documents, (iii)
project background, rationale and objectives; (iv) main
beneficiaries and stakeholder consultation, (v) description of the
project (including physical parameters), (vi) capital costs and
implementation period; (vii) social assessment, (viii)
environmental impact, (ix) risks and uncertainties; and (x) key
linkages with other projects and programmes.
The purpose of the Project Portfolio is to present a list of

projects and programmes that are required in the short to
medium term, with the aim of creating a foundation for the
sustainable development of the RVLB in the long term. Each
project is considered a necessary step in the development of the
Basin in order to support the broad strategies discussed in
Section 8.3.
It should also be stressed that economic development of the

Basin will be largely driven by the private sector. The
interventions and investments made by the private sector
cannot be specifically identified as projects within the Master
Plan context; the project portfolio is therefore limited to public
sector led projects which will be implemented by the federal and
regional governments with the full participation and
involvement of beneficiaries, NGOs and the private sector.
It is also important to note that, with the limited availability of

water for irrigation purposes within the Rift Valley Lakes Basin
as a whole (see Chapter 7), further development of irrigated
land is likely to be confined to the sustainable limit of about

18,000 hectares. Consequently, the proposed irrigation schemes
should be regarded as alternative options for future
development of irrigated land in RVLB; it will not be possible to
implement all the schemes sustainably.
Table THE MASTER PLAN.53: Proposed projects by sector

Project Project title Project
code cost
(ETB
Million
)
WATER RESOURCES
Climate and Hydrology
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Hydrometric Network and Monitoring
1 for MoWR 25.0
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Hydrometric Data Management
2 Capacity for MoWR 6.0
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Meteorological Network and Monitoring
3 for NMSA 15.0
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Meteorological Data Management
4 Capacity for NMSA 4.0
Hydrogeology
GW/CB/0 Development of Groundwater Inventory, Database and
1 Monitoring Network 25.0
GW/WS/0 Identification and Implementation of Sustainable Rural
2 WSS and Sources 30.0
GW/WS/0
3 Improvements to Boditi Town Water Supply Sources 9.1
GW/WS/0
4 Improvements to Dila Town Water Supply and Sources 23.0
GW/WS/0
5 Improvements to Meki Town Water Supply and Sources 14.0
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Fiseha Genet Town Water Supply
6 Sources 1.6
GW/WS/0
7 Improvements to Teltele Town Water Supply Sources 2.3
GW/WS/0
8 Improvements to Sodo Town Water Supply and Sources 24.8
GW/IR/09 Sile Groundwater Irrigation Project 150.0

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
GW/IR/10 Groundwater Irrigation in North Lake Ziway 50.0
Irrigation
and Drainage
IR/DR/01 Lower Weito River Irrigation Expansion Project 750.0
IR/DR/02 Bezo Irrigation Project (Upper Weito River) 400.0
Upper Segen Irrigation and Hydropower Multi-purpose
IR/HE/03 Project 350.0
Lower Segen Irrigation and Hydropower Multi-purpose
IR/HE/04 Project 600.0
Sile River Irrigation Rehabilitation, Expansion and Multi-
IR/GW/05 purpose Project 200.0
Sego River Irrigation Rehabilitation, Expansion and
IR/GW/06 Multi-purpose Project 350.0
Amesa - Bongie Irrigation Rehabilitation and Expansion
IR/DR/07 Project 75.0
IR/DR/08 Iyanda Gato Irrigation Development Project 230.0
IR/DR/09 Iyanda Faro Irrigation Development Project 300.0
IR/HE/10 Lower Meki Irrigation Development (with Hydropower) 350.0
IR/DR/11 Katar River Dam and Small/Medium Scale Irrigation
Development 500.0
Study and Programme to Upgrade Traditional Irrigation
IR/LM/12 Schemes 103.0
IR/LM/13 Study and Programme to Rehabilitate Small/Medium
Scale Irrigation Schemes 210.0
IR/LM/14 Vegetable and Fruit Development Project Using Low
Irrigation Technologies 30.0
Water Supply and Sanitation
WS/WR/0
1 Water Supply for Yerga Alem Town and Environs 28.2
WS/PH/0
2 Urban Sanitation and Wastewater Disposal 3,649.0
WS/WR/0
3 Water Supply for Hossaina Town and Environs 62.7
WS/WR/0 Water Supply for Adami Tulu and Rural Environs of
4 Ziway Town 39.3
WS/GW/0 Water Supply for Yirga Chefe Town 28.2

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
5
WS/GW/0
6 Water Supply for Konso (Karat) Town 13.3
WS/CB/0 Maintenance Supply Stores for Water Supply and
7 Sanitation 15.0
Water Resources and Modelling
WR/CB/0 Assessment of Multisectoral Development through
1 Conjunctive Use of the Northern Lakes (Ziway, Abiyata,
Langano and Shala) 5.0
NATURAL RESOURCES
Mineral Resources
MR/ID/01 Development of Diatomite Deposits 16.0
MR/ID/02 Epithermal Gold Prospecting 20.0
Watershed Management
WM/SC/0 Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement through
1 Integrated Watershed Development in Bilate Sub-Basin 294.0
WM/SC/0 Integrated Watershed Development of Western Lake
2 Ziway Sub-Basin 235.0
WM/SC/0 Promotion and Dissemination of Konso Soil & Water
3 Conservation Practices 28.5
WM/SC/0
4 Integrated Watershed Development of Burji-Amaro 205.0
WM/SC/0
5 Rehabilitation of Lake Awasa Watershed 150.0
Crop Production and Agronomy
AG/ID/01 Promotion of Export Horticultural Crops 234.3
AG/ID/02 Improved Seed Production and Distribution 156.8
AG/ID/03 Promotion and Production of Industrial Crops 769.0
Expansion of Tomato and Red Pepper Production for
AG/ID/04 Industry 36.9
AG/CB/05 Adoption of Yield Enhancing Agricultural Inputs 19.7
Development and Production of Citrus and Other
AG/ID/06 Tropical Fruits 8.1
AG/ID/07 Sugarcane Production for Cottage Industry 1.2

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
Water Harvesting for Improvement of Small Scale
AG/IR/08 Agriculture 43.7
AG/ID/09 Establishment of Enset Planting Materials,
Multiplication and Distribution 4.1
AG/ID/10 Improvement of Crop Marketing Systems 44.0
Promotion and Dissemination of Integrated Pest
AG/ID/11 Management Technologies 12.9
Livestock and Rangeland Development
LS/WM/0
1 Rangeland Rehabilitation and Development 167.0
LS/CB/02 Livestock Feed Development 85.0
Poultry Development and Establishment of Brooding
LS/ID/03 Centres 230.0
LS/ID/04 Establishment of Livestock Markets and Resting Places 115.0
LS/CB/05 Improvement and Establishment of Animal Health Posts 120.0
Development and Strengthening of Dairy Multiplication
LS/CB/06 Centres 80.0
LS/ID/07 Establishment of New Slaughterhouses 165.0
LS/ID/08 Promotion and Development of Dairy Goat Raising 75.0
LS/CB/09 Fattening Programme for Beef and Mutton 60.0
Fisheries
FS/CB/01 Lakes Abaya and Chamo Fisheries Development 38.0
FS/ID/02 Infrastructure Development of Shore Facilities 95.0
Improving Existing and Establishing New Fisheries
FS/CB/03 Research Centres 14.5
FS/CB/04 Improved Management of the RVLB Fisheries 33.0
FS/CB/05 Establishment of Aquaculture Development Institute 9.5
Limnology
LM/FS/0 Aquatic Biodiversity Monitoring and Management
1 Strategy 4.0
LM/WQ/0 Bio-monitoring for River and Lake Environmental
2 Assessment 6.5
Forestry and Forest Resources
FO/ID/01 Industrial Forestry Development and Establishment of 95.0

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
Forest Industries
FO/WM/0 Protection, Management and Conservation of Natural
2 Forests and Woodlands 63.5
FO/EN/0
3 Peri-Urban Plantation Development 114.0
Agro-forestry, Farm Forestry and Community Forestry
FO/AG/04 Conservation 285.0
FO/ID/05 Production and Marketing of Gum and Incense 12.5
Apiculture
AP/CB/01 Capacity Building in Apiculture Extension 54.0
Empowering Rural Women Through Apiculture
AP/GE/02 Development 30.0
Wildlife
WL/TO/0
1 Rehabilitation of Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park 50.0
WL/TO/0 In-depth Study to Upgrade the Status of Munessa
2 Controlled Hunting Area to a National Park 2.5
ENERGY RESOURCES
Geothermal Energy
GE/EN/0 Expansion of the Aluto-Langano Geothermal Plant
1 Capacity 3.0
GE/EN/0 Exploration and Pilot Plant for Corbetti Geothermal
2 Development 5.0
GE/EN/0
3 Exploration for Geothermal Development for Abaya 5.0
Energy
EN/FO/0 Extension of the Programme to Promote Energy Efficient
1 Wood Stoves 27.5
EN/FO/0
2 Promotion of Efficient Charcoal Production Technologies 2.5
EN/ES/03 Solar Energy for Domestic and Social Services 72.0
EN/ES/04 Study for a Wind Power Park in Bekoji 2.0
EN/AG/0
5 Land Suitability Assessment for Bio-diesel Production 0.5
SOCIOECONOMY

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
SE/SA/01 Identifying and Strengthening Indigenous Inter-ethnic
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms 7.5
SE/GE/02 Raising Awareness for Gender Mainstreaming 3.5
SE/GE/03 Economic Empowerment through Small Scale Trade and
Skills Training 150.0
INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRY
Physical and Social Infrastructure
PI/SI/01 Upgrading Dry Weather Roads to All Weather Roads 1,112.0
PI/SI/02 Upgrading Gravel Roads to Asphalt Roads 1,660.0
SI/PI/03 Schools Construction to Improve Attendance 878.0
Industrial Development
ID/CB/01 Development of Centres for Industrial Research 80.0
ID/CB/02 Industrial Networking Project 25.0
ID/CB/03 Improvement of Human Resources in Industry 95.0
ID/CB/04 Fully Serviced Work Places and Export Processing Zones 190.0
ID/CB/05 Facility for Production of Industrial Spare Parts and
Enhanced Maintenance 75.0
Renovation of Existing Natural Resource Based
ID/CB/06 Industries 35.0
Tourism
TO/CB/01 Establishment of Tourist Information Centres 12.0
TO/CB/02 Community-based, Pro-poor Tourism at Amaro, Burji and
Gurage Mountains Landscape Areas; and Lake Ziway 28.0
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CB/WR/0
1 Development of the River Basin Organisation for RVLB 5.0
CB/WR/0
2 Developing the Master Plan Knowledgebase for MoWR 16.0
CB/AG/03 Capacity Building of Farmer Training Centres 148.3
ENVIRONMENT
Public Health
Prevention and Control of Vector and Water Borne
PH/ES/01 Diseases 285.0
PH/CB/02 Development and Capacity Building of Health Services 954.0

code cost
(ETB
Million
)
PH/CB/03 Strengthening of Family Planning Services 475.0
PH/CB/04 Prevention and Control of Childhood Diseases and
Nutritional Deficiencies 190.0
Water Quality
WQ/WS/0
1 Assessment of Fluoride Treatment Schemes 3.8
WQ/CB/0
2 Institutional Strengthening in Water Quality Monitoring 6.2
8.9.3 Multi-criteria Analysis and Project Ranking

The proposed projects vary widely in nature, scope and scale,
and this makes it very difficult to compare them directly using
an objective assessment and ranking methodology. However, it
is helpful to undertake simple multi-criteria analysis to provide
an indicative ranking of the projects.
Project ranking was undertaken on a non-sectoral basis. A set of

criteria was developed based on the goals and objectives of the
Master Plan. Numbers assigned to each criterion could be
positive or negative or both, depending on the aspect being
considered. For example, in environmental considerations, some
aspects could be positive, others negative, or there could be no
impact. This is reflected in the possible scores. The ranking
criteria are given in Table 8.11.
The scores for individual aspects and criteria are then summed
to give a total score for the project. Theoretically, a project
could have a score less than zero, but a project which has an
overall negative impact on the Basin would not be put forward.
In fact, the lowest ranking project has a total score of 8 and the
highest ranking project has a score of 40.

The ranking of the projects does not necessarily relate to those
selected for the prefeasibility studies during Phase 2 of the
Master Plan Study. This is because the project portfolio covers a
range of sectors, but the six projects selected for prefeasibility
study will be managed by the Ministry of Water Resources and
therefore reflect their mandate and development
responsibilities.
Table 8.12 presents the non-sectoral ranking of the 109 projects.

This ranking provides an indicative representation of the value
of the project to the development of the RVLB. Nevertheless, all
projects are still important to Basin development and should, at
some stage, be implemented. It can be seen from Table 8.12 that
the watershed management projects are highly ranked; this
reflects the urgent need to mitigate land degradation and open
the way to sustainable development of natural resources in the
Basin.
The capacity building programmes are also seen in the top

rankings; this clearly shows the importance of substantially
enhancing the institutional structure and staff resources, which
are currently very weak. Water supply and sanitation projects
also rank highly, as they, too, have a high impact on
socioeconomic development, in terms of human health, poverty
reduction and economic growth.
It should be emphasised that this ranking of projects is only

indicative. The scores given to each project, with respect to the
various criteria, are very dependant on the subjective
assessment of the evaluators and their own perceptions of the
impact of the different projects. The scores, and consequently
the final ranking, will therefore vary between evaluators.
Table THE MASTER PLAN.54: Project ranking criteria

Criteria Description Score
Economic
Criteria Contribution to RGDP -2 to +2
Contributes to export or substitution of 0 to
imports +2
Promotes economic diversification or 0 to
linkages +2

Supports development of natural resources 0 to
based industry +2
0 to
Promotes private sector participation +2
-2 to
Total Economic +10
Multisectoral 0 to
Criteria Direct link with other sectors +3
-2 to
Impacts other projects / programmes +2
-2 to
Total Multisectoral +5
0 to
Scale Criteria Number of people directly benefiting +3
-2 to
Size of area directly benefiting +2
-2 to
Total Scale +5
Institutional Contributes to implementation of national 0 to
Criteria or regional policy +2
0 to
Contributes to implementation capacity +2
Contributes to improved management or 0 to
efficiency +2
0 to
Total Institutional +6
Social benefits to communities affected by -2 to
Social Criteria project +2
Enhances community participation / local 0 to
empowerment +2
-2 to
Affects gender disparity +2
-2 to
Preserves culture and tradition +2
-6 to
Total Social +8
Poverty, Health
and Education 0 to
Criteria Provides employment to local population +3
0 to
Improves food security +3

Improves access to safe water and 0 to
sanitation +3
0 to
Improves public health and family planning +3
0 to
Improves or promotes education +3
0 to
Total Poverty, Health and Education +15
Environmental Includes direct interventions for 0 to
Criteria environmental sustainability +2
Impacts forest resources (including -2 to
biodiversity) +2
Impacts wildlife and habitat (including -2 to
biodiversity) +2
-2 to
Impacts water quality +2
-2 to
Impacts waste disposal and management +2
-8 to
Total Environmental +10
Resource
Sustainability Impacts soil conservation and land -2 to
Criteria management +2
0 to
Impacts consumption of fuel wood +2
Impacts forest resources (including -2 to
biodiversity) +2
Impacts Basin water resources and -2 to
management +2
-2 to
Impacts sustainability of wetlands +2
-2 to
Impacts greenhouse gas production +2
-10 to
Total Resource Sustainability +12
External Risk
Criteria Relies on legal or policy change -3 to 0
Relies on legal or policy implementation -2 to 0
Relies on a priori institutional capacity
building -3 to 0

Depends on success of other projects /
programmes -2 to 0
-10 to
Total External Risk 0
Internal Risk Includes direct interventions for economic -2 to
Criteria sustainability +2
Includes interventions to reduce economic / -2 to
financial risk +2
Impacts opportunity cost of resources -3 to 0
Affects potential for ethnic conflict -3 to 0
-1 to
Length of implementation time +1
-11 to
Total Internal Risk +5
Minimum and Maximum Possible -51 to
Scores +76
Table THE MASTER PLAN.55: Project ranking

Tota
l
Project Project title scor
code e
WM/SC/0 Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement through Integrated 40
1 Watershed Development in Bilate Sub-basin
WM/SC/0 Promotion and Dissemination of Konso Soil and Water 39
3 Conservation Practices
WM/SC/0 Rehabilitation of Lake Awasa Watershed 38
5
WM/SC/0 Integrated Watershed Development in Western Lake Ziway 38
2 Sub-basin
CB/AG/03 Capacity Building of Farmer Training Centres 37
WM/SC/0 Integrated Watershed Development of Burji-Amaro 35
4
WS/PH/0 Urban Sanitation and Wastewater Disposal 34
2
FO/EN/0 Peri-Urban Plantation Development 34
3
FS/CB/01 Lakes Abaya and Chamo Fisheries Development 33
FO/AG/04 Agro-forestry, Farm Forestry and Community Forestry 33

Tota
l
code e
Conservation
AP/GE/02 Empowering Rural Women Through Apiculture Development 33
FO/WM/0 Protection, Management and Conservation of Natural Forests 32
2 and Woodlands
AG/CB/05 Adoption of Yield Enhancing Agricultural Inputs 32
AP/CB/01 Capacity Building in Apiculture Extension 31
WL/TO/0 Rehabilitation of Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park 31
1
WQ/WS/0 Assessment of Fluoride Treatment Schemes 31
1
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Dila Town Water Supply and Sources 30
4
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Sodo Town Water Supply and Sources 30
8
AG/ID/02 Improved Seed Production and Distribution 30
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Boditi Town Water Supply Sources 29
3
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Meki Town Water Supply and Sources 29
5
FS/ID/02 Infrastructure Development of Shore Facilities 29
WS/WR/0 Water Supply for Yerga Alem Town and Environs 28
1
WS/WR/0 Water Supply for Hossaina Town and Environs 28
3
WS/WR/0 Water Supply for Adami Tulu and Rural Environs of Ziway 28
4 Town
WS/GW/0 Water Supply for Yirga Chefe Town 28
5
WS/GW/0 Water Supply for Konso (Karat) Town 28
6
ID/CB/03 Improvement of Human Resources in Industry 28
GW/WS/0 Identification, Delineation and Implementation of Sustainable 27
2 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sources
WR/CB/0 Assessment of Multisectoral Development through 27
1 Conjunctive Use of the Northern Lakes (Ziway, Abiyata,
Langano and Shala)

Tota
l
code e
AG/ID/01 Promotion of Export Horticultural Crops 27
AG/ID/11 Promotion and Dissemination of Integrated Pest Management 27
Technologies
SI/PI/03 Schools Construction to Improve Attendance 27
WS/CB/0 Maintenance Supply Stores for Water Supply and Sanitation 26
7
AG/ID/06 Development and Production of Citrus and Other Tropical 26
Fruits
ID/CB/04 Fully Serviced Work Places and Export Processing Zones 26
WQ/CB/0 Institutional Strengthening in Water Quality Monitoring 26
2
AG/ID/03 Promotion and Production of Industrial Crops 25
AG/ID/10 Improvement of Crop Marketing Systems 25
SE/GE/02 Raising Awareness for Gender Mainstreaming 25
ID/CB/01 Development of Centres for Industrial Research 25
ID/CB/06 Renovation of Existing Natural Resource Based Industries 25
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Fiseha Genet Town Water Supply Sources 24
6
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Teltele Town Water Supply Sources 24
7
IR/HE/03 Upper Segen Irrigation and Hydropower Multi-purpose 24
Project
IR/HE/04 Lower Segen Irrigation and Hydropower Multi-purpose 24
Project
AG/ID/04 Expansion of Tomato and Red Pepper Production for Industry 24
AG/ID/09 Establishment of Enset Planting Materials, Multiplicator and 24
Distribution Sites
LS/ID/08 Promotion and Development of Dairy Goat Raising 24
SE/GE/03 Economic Empowerment through Small Scale Trade and 24
Skills Training
IR/GW/05 Sile River Irrigation Rehabilitation, Expansion and Multi- 23
purpose Project
IR/GW/06 Sego River Irrigation Rehabilitation, Expansion and Multi- 23
purpose Project
LS/ID/03 Poultry Development and Establishment of Brooding Centres 23
FS/CB/05 Establishment of Aquaculture Development Institute 23

Tota
l
code e
PH/ES/01 Prevention and Control of Vector and Water Borne Diseases 23
GW/IR/10 Groundwater Irrigation in North Lake Ziway 22
AG/ID/07 Sugarcane Production for Cottage Industry 22
LS/ID/04 Establishment of Livestock Markets and Resting Places 22
EN/ES/04 Study for a Wind Power Park in Bekoji 22
ID/CB/02 Industrial Networking Project 22
PH/CB/03 Strengthening of Family Planning Services 22
GW/IR/09 Sile Groundwater Irrigation Project 21
WL/TO/0 In-depth Study to Upgrade the Status of Munessa Controlled 21
2 Hunting Area to a National Park
LM/FS/0 Aquatic Biodiversity Monitoring and Management Strategy 21
1
LM/WQ/0 Biomonitoring for River and Lake Environmental Assessment 21
2
EN/FO/0 Promotion of Efficient Charcoal Production Technologies 21
2
PI/SI/01 Upgrading Dry Weather Roads to All Weather Roads 21
PI/SI/02 Upgrading Gravel Roads to Asphalt Roads 21
PH/CB/02 Development and Capacity Building of Health Services 21
IR/HE/10 Lower Meki Irrigation Development (with Hydropower) 20
IR/LM/12 Study and Programme to Upgrade Traditional Irrigation 20
Schemes
IR/LM/13 Study and Programme to Rehabilitate Existing Small 20
/Medium Scale Irrigation Schemes
LS/CB/02 Livestock Feed Development 20
LS/CB/06 Development and Strengthening of Dairy Multiplication 20
Centres
FO/ID/01 Industrial Forestry Development and Establishment of Forest 20
Industries
EN/AG/0 Land Suitability Assessment for Bio-diesel Production 20
5
TO/CB/02 Community-based, Pro-poor Tourism at Amaro, Burji and 20
Gurage Mountains Landscape Areas; and Lake Ziway
CB/WR/0 Development of the River Basin Organisation for RVLB 20
1
IR/DR/01 Lower Weito River Irrigation Expansion Project 19

Tota
l
code e
IR/DR/02 Bezo Irrigation Project (Upper Weito River) 19
PH/CB/04 Prevention and Control of Childhood Diseases and Nutritional 19
Deficiencies
FS/CB/04 Improved Management of the RVLB Fisheries 18
FO/ID/05 Production and Marketing of Gum and Incense 18
SE/SA/01 Identifying and Strengthening Indigenous Interethnic 18
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
ID/CB/05 Facility for Production of Industrial Spare Parts and 18
Enhanced Maintenance
CB/WR/0 Developing the Master Plan Knowledgebase for MoWR 18
2
LS/CB/05 Improvement and Establishment of Animal Health Posts 17
FS/CB/03 Improving Existing and Establishing New Fisheries Research 17
Centres
EN/FO/0 Extension of the Programme to Promote Energy Efficient 17
1 Wood Stoves
IR/DR/07 Amesa - Bongie Irrigation Rehabilitation and Expansion 16
Project
IR/DR/08 Iyanda Gato Irrigation Development Project 16
IR/DR/09 Iyanda Faro Irrigation Development Project 16
IR/DR/11 Katar River Dam and Small/Medium Scale Irrigation 16
Development: Reconnaissance Study
LS/WM/0 Rangeland Rehabilitation and Development 16
1
TO/CB/01 Establishment of Tourist Information Centres 16
GW/CB/0 Development of Groundwater Inventory, Database and 15
1 Monitoring Network
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Hydrometric Network and Monitoring for 14
1 MoWR
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Hydrometric Data Management Capacity for 14
2 MoWR
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Meteorological Network and Monitoring for 14
3 NMSA
HM/CB/0 Improvement of Meteorological Data Management Capacity 14
4 for NMSA
AG/IR/08 Water Harvesting for Improvement of Small Scale Agriculture 14

Tota
l
code e
GE/EN/0 Expansion of the Aluto-Langano Geothermal Plant Capacity 14
1
EN/ES/03 Solar Energy for Domestic and Social Services 14
LS/ID/07 Establishment of New Slaughterhouses 13
LS/CB/09 Fattening Programme for Beef and Mutton 13
GE/EN/0 Exploration and Pilot Plant for Corbetti Geothermal 13
2 Development
GE/EN/0 Exploration for Geothermal Development for Abaya 13
3
MR/ID/01 Development of Diatomite Deposits 8
MR/ID/02 Epithermal Gold Prospecting 8
8.9.4 Prefeasibility Studies

The Consultant’s Terms of Reference requests that prefeasibility
studies are undertaken for six proposed projects during Phase 2
of the Master Plan Study. From these six projects, three will
then be selected for feasibility study during Phase 3. The MoWR
selected prefeasibility studies which comprise irrigation, water
supply and watershed management projects.
The Lower Segen Irrigation, Drainage and Multi-purpose Project

and Sego Irrigation and Drainage Project were selected for the
irrigation prefeasibility studies from a range of potential
medium and large scale irrigation schemes in the Basin.
The water supply selection included the Water Supply for Yirga
Alem Town and Environs and the Water Supply for Adami Tulu
and Rural Environs. These studies investigated and compared
alternative solutions to overcoming the acute water supply
problems currently being experienced in these towns.
Finally, given the serious problems associated with deforestation

and land degradation in the highlands of the Basin,
prefeasibility studies were completed for Rehabilitation of Lake
Awasa Watershed and Integrated Watershed Development of
Western Lake Ziway Sub-basin.

8.10 RVLB Structure Plan
Following the identification of appropriate development zones

and the formulation of zonal development plans, the overall
physical structure plan for the Rift Valley Lakes Basin was
prepared using the GIS (mapped at a scale of 1:1,000,000). A
reduced version of the physical structure plan at 1:2,000,000
scale is included in this report as Figure 8.2.
The main purpose of the structure plan is to map the preferred

pattern of land and water use within the Basin. The structure
plan clearly delineates, inter alia:
 Development zones including the principal crop and

livestock production areas;
 Urban centres (including urban hierarchy and linkages);
 Existing and proposed transportation network, including
trunk, link and rural access roads, as well as airports;
 Large and medium scale irrigation projects;
 Water supply schemes;
 Existing and proposed agro-industrial developments as well
as mining activities;
 Existing and proposed wildlife parks, protected areas and
forest reserves/conservation areas; and
 Special development areas, e.g. watershed management
projects.
Figure THE MASTER PLAN.19: Structural plan for the

RVLB

9 CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND
IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
9.1 Capital Investment and Financing
9.1.1 Investment Schedule for Master Plan Interventions

An investment schedule for the Master Plan was prepared based
on the capital investment required for each development sector
in the short, medium and long term, as determined by the
Economic Resource Optimisation and Allocation and Rest of
Economy models (EROAM and ROE - see Section 7). The public
sector investment required for the different sectors during the
25 year Master Plan period is summarised in Table 9.1.
Table 9.1 shows that the total capital investment required for
the implementation of Master Plan interventions is estimated at
ETB 29.45 billion (USD 3.10 billion) in 2008 prices. Over a 25
year period, average capital requirements would therefore be
about ETB 1.17 billion per annum (USD 124 million per annum).
However, a high proportion (68%) of the investment would be
needed in the short term (ETB 7.12 billion) and medium term
(ETB 13.01 billion), due to the substantial amounts of capital
required for the infrastructure projects - particularly water
supply, urban sanitation, road development, electricity and
soil/water conservation, as well as the education and health
programmes.
With respect to the different sectors, economic infrastructure

(i.e. roads, markets, electricity and telecommunications)
accounts for the largest proportion of the Master Plan
investment with 32% of total capital requirements (i.e. ETB 9.43
billion); the bulk of this relates to road development and
electricity, which require 25% of total the total investment.
Investment in the water resources sector is also very
substantial, accounting for 30.9% of total investment (i.e. ETB
9.10 billion). Within the water resources sector, water supply
will require 13.6% of total investment, followed by urban
sanitation (12.4%). The education and health sectors also
account for a high proportion (13.3%) of total capital

requirements, i.e. ETB 3.91 billion. The remaining 23.8% of
total capital requirements is distributed between natural
resources (which includes crop/livestock production and
soil/water conservation), energy resources and
industry/commerce.

Table CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
SCHEDULE.56: Capital investment schedule
by development sector
Development sector Capital cost (Million ETB) %
Short Medium Long Total Tota
term term term l
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 - cost
2014) 2024) 2034)
A. Water Resources
Irrigation 68.82 848.94 402.05 1,319.81 4.5%
Water Supply (urban &
917.94 1,617.76 1,477.35 4,013.05 13.6%
rural)
Urban Sanitation 729.81 1,751.55 1,167.69 3,649.05 12.4%
Hydrology/Groundwater
105.00 105.00 0.4%
Monitoring
Water Quality Monitoring 10.00 10.00 0.0%
sub-total 1,831.57 4,218.25 3,047.09 9,096.91 30.9%
Crop Production 861.11 574.07 1,435.18 4.9%
Soil and Water Conservation 734.03 1,174.45 1,027.64 2,936.12 10.0%
Livestock Development 570.90 467.10 1,038.00 3.5%
Forestry 342.00 228.00 570.00 1.9%
Fisheries 114.00 76.00 190.00 0.6%
Apiculture 50.40 33.60 84.00 0.3%
Wildlife 47.50 47.50 95.00 0.3%
Mineral Resources 36.00 36.00 0.1%
sub-total 2755.94 2600.72 1027.64 6384.30 21.7%
C. Energy Resources
Alternative Energy Sources 57.50 30.00 87.50 0.3%
Energy Conservation 20.00 10.00 30.00 0.1%
Sub-total 77.50 40.00 117.50 0.4%
D. Industry and
Commerce
Industrial Support Services 250.00 250.00 500.00 1.7%
Tourism Support 12.00 12.00 0.0%
sub-total 262.00 250.00 512.00 1.7%
E. Economic
Infrastructure
Road Development 949.96 1,654.12 872.11 3,476.19 11.8%
Market Upgrading 142.49 248.12 130.82 521.43 1.8%
Electricity 345.11 1,736.62 1,798.02 3,879.75 13.2%
Telecommunications 138.04 694.65 719.21 1,551.90 5.3%
sub-total 1,575.60 4,333.51 3,520.16 9,429.27 32.0%
Education Facilities 204.72 282.93 390.78 878.43 3.0%

Development sector Capital cost (Million ETB) %
Short Medium Long Total Tota
term term term l
(2010 - (2015 - (2025 - cost
2014) 2024) 2034)
Health Facilities 96.87 545.96 311.56 954.39 3.2%
Training (education, health,
315.46 734.15 1,026.62 2,076.23 7.1%
admin)
sub-total 617.05 1,563.04 1,728.96 3,909.05 13.3%
100.0
Total 7,119.66 13,005.52 9,323.85 29,449.03
%

9.1.2 Capital Investment by Development Zone
Capital requirements for the Master Plan were then allocated
between the eight development zones. The capital investment
required for the different development zones over the 25 year
Master Plan period is summarised in Table 9.2, and it is
apparent from that the highest proportion (27%) of the total
Basin investment will be required in the North West Mixed
Farming Zone (DZ 3) followed by the Eastern Enset/Coffee Zone
(DZ 4) with 24%. This clearly reflects the additional investment
that is required in these zones, particularly with respect to
water supply/sanitation and economic infrastructure, along with
education and health services. These investments are urgently
required to provide economic opportunities, improve welfare
and reduce poverty in these zones.
The Southern Mixed Farming Zone (DZ 6) accounts for a further

18% of total investment; even though only 14% of the Basin’s
population are currently living in this zone, it is envisaged that it
will rapidly develop during the Master Plan period.
Consequently there will be a substantial investment in
irrigation, soil/water conservation, water supply/sanitation and
economic infrastructure as well as education and health
services.
North Central Lowland Zone (DZ 2) and North East Highland

Zone (DZ 1) account for about 14.5% and 10% respectively of
total investment. This broadly reflects the proportions of the
Basin’s population living in these zones.
Finally, capital requirements for Eastern Mixed Farming Zone

and the two pastoral zones amounts to only 7% of total Basin
investment, due to the low population and lack of urban centres.
Nevertheless, there will still be significant amounts of
investment in natural resources, economic infrastructure
(particularly roads),education and health facilities.

Table CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE.57:
Capital investment by development zone
(Million ETB)
Sector DZ 1 DZ 2 DZ 3 DZ 4 DZ 5 DZ 6 DZ 7 DZ 8 Total
A. Water Resources
587.8 121.2 604.5 0.00 0.00 1,319.
Irrigation 0.00 6.14 0.00
7 1 9 81
Water Supply (urban & 348.2 483.9 1,172. 1,217. 142.5 560.8 4,013.
69.78 17.11
rural) 6 5 66 91 5 4 05
425.1 541.5 1,190. 1,031. 403.6 3,649.
Urban Sanitation 10.13 32.99 14.28
6 8 02 20 8 05
Hydrology/G’water
8.13 15.14 18.01 9.76 7.03 25.37 10.33 11.23 105.00
Monitoring
Water Quality
0.77 1.44 1.71 0.93 0.67 2.42 0.98 1.07 10.00
Monitoring
782.3 1,629. 2,388. 2,381. 160.3 1,596. 9,096.
sub-total 114.09 43.69
3 98 54 01 8 90 91
148.6 242.3 552.2 201.5 204.2 1,435.
Crop Production 52.93 18.00 15.12
7 6 2 9 9 18
Soil and Water 368.2 309.3 608.5 431.9 1020. 2,936.
67.47 55.77 74.08
Conservation 8 9 8 6 60 12
150.9 136.7 280.7 167.6 145.3 1,038.
Livestock Development 63.56 68.49 24.43
8 4 3 9 9 00
137.7
Forestry 44.15 82.18 97.75 53.00 38.15 56.09 60.94 570.00
4
116.6
Fisheries 0.56 42.29 16.43 7.73 4.04 1.06 1.28 190.00
2
Apiculture 6.51 12.11 14.41 7.81 5.62 20.30 8.27 8.98 84.00
Wildlife 3.80 35.63 5.70 6.65 0.48 28.50 7.13 7.13 95.00
Mineral Resources 36.00 36.00
758.9 860.6 1,575. 876.4 232.2 1,673. 6,384.
sub-total 214.79 191.96
5 9 82 2 5 43 30
C. Energy Resources
Alternative Energy
7.59 10.55 25.57 26.56 3.11 12.23 1.52 0.37 87.50
Sources
Energy Conservation 3.50 4.45 9.78 8.48 0.08 3.32 0.27 0.12 30.00
Sub-total 11.09 15.00 35.35 35.03 3.19 15.55 1.79 0.49 117.50
D. Industry and
Commerce
Industrial Support 163.0 141.3
58.26 74.21 1.39 55.31 4.52 1.96 500.00
Services 6 0
Tourism Support 2.40 4.80 0 2.40 0 2.40 0 0 12.00
163.0 143.7
sub-total 60.66 79.01 1.39 57.71 4.52 1.96 512.00
6 0

Sector DZ 1 DZ 2 DZ 3 DZ 4 DZ 5 DZ 6 DZ 7 DZ 8 Total
E. Economic
Infrastructure
319.8 347.6 768.2 597.9 114.7 789.1 3,476.
Road Development 365.00 173.81
1 2 4 0 1 0 19
152.3 158.2
Market Upgrading 45.25 62.88 18.52 72.87 9.07 2.22 521.43
7 5
452.0 575.8 1265. 1096. 429.2 3,879.
Electricity 10.77 35.07 15.19
4 2 25 39 0 75
134.6 187.1 453.4 470.9 216.8 1,551.
Telecommunications 55.13 26.99 6.62
8 5 8 8 8 90
951.7 1173. 2639. 2323. 199.1 1508. 9,429.
sub-total 436.13 197.84
8 47 34 52 4 05 27
F. Education and
Health
105.9 256.6 266.5 122.7
Education Facilities 76.23 31.20 15.27 3.75 878.43
3 9 9 6
115.0 278.8 289.6 133.3
Health Facilities 82.82 33.90 16.60 4.07 954.39
9 8 4 8
Training (educ., health, 180.1 250.3 606.7 630.1 290.1 2,076.
73.75 36.10 8.85
admin) 8 8 0 1 6 23
339.2 471.4 1142. 1186. 138.8 546.3 3909.0
sub-total 67.97 16.67
3 0 27 34 6 0 5
2,904. 4,229. 7,944. 6,946. 735.2 5,397. 29,449
Total 839.29 452.60
04 56 38 02 0 95 .0

9.1.3 Financing of the Master Plan
Financing of the Master Plan projects and programmes over the
next 25 years will be based on three main sources: (i) external
donors (multilateral, bilateral and NGOs), (ii) federal and
regional governments, and (iii) private investment (both
domestic and international). With regard to major multilateral
and bilateral donors, there is currently a substantial pipeline of
development projects which have already attracted donor
financing throughout the country. Nevertheless, external donor
finance will be critical if the levels of investment required for
the implementation of the Master Plan are to be realised
(particularly with respect to irrigation, soil/water conservation,
water supply, sanitation, road infrastructure, education facilities
and health services).
It is therefore important that the federal and regional

governments carefully determine the programmes and projects
that will be funded externally and in what form the financial
assistance will be provided (i.e. grant, loan). Regular and on-
going dialogue with external donors should also be maintained
throughout the Master Plan period to ensure that the financing
is in line with donors’ interests as well as the objectives and
strategies of the Basin development plan.
To achieve the aim of significantly reducing poverty in RVLB,

there will have to be a very substantial increase in funding from
the federal and regional governments. In addition to showing a
commitment to Basin development, this will also help to attract
finance from external donors, NGOs and the private sector. This,
however, will require additional revenue generation through
new taxation measures and cost recovery mechanisms (e.g. user
charges).
Domestic resource mobilisation through community

contributions (either in cash or in kind) will also be an important
source of revenue, particularly with respect to irrigation, soil/
water conservation, water supply and rural roads projects, as
well as education and health services.
The private sector will also take a leading role in the provision
of the required investment in Basin development. Although not
specifically included in the capital requirements outlined in

Table 9.1, private investors will be the major source of financing
for industrial and commercial enterprises including agro-
processing, mining and tourism. However, in addition to
substantially improving economic infrastructure and public
services, the federal and regional governments will need to
encourage and stimulate private investment through tax
incentives, establishing special lines of credit, and through the
provision of technical information and training. This should
apply to both local companies and foreign investors.
9.2 Implementation Schedule
9.2.1 Introduction
The interventions selected for inclusion in the Master Plan have
been allocated to specified implementation phases, i.e. short (up
to Year 5), medium (Year 6 to Year 15) and long term (Year 16 to
25). The implementation schedule for the Master Plan
programme and project is given in Figure 9.1, and the phasing
of the interventions for each development sector is discussed as
follows.
9.2.2 Water Resources

With respect to irrigation projects, it is anticipated that the
traditional farm level schemes would continue to be
implemented throughout the Master Plan period, while the
planned small and medium scale schemes would be constructed
between 2016 and 2035. It is estimated that 6,720 ha of
traditional farm irrigation and 10,063 ha of planned irrigation
would be developed over a 25 year period.
A very high priority would be given to the implementation of

water supply projects, with the urban water supply systems
being either upgraded or newly constructed between 2010 and
2025. It is envisaged that improvements to the water supply
schemes for towns such as Yerga Alem, Hossaina, Adami Tulu,
Yirga Chefe, Konso, Boditi, Dila, Meki, Fiseha, Teltele and Sodo
would be implemented over a 5 year period between 2010 and
2015, while the remaining towns would rehabilitate and extend
their water supply systems in the medium and long term. In
addition, there would be a rapid extension of water supply
facilities in the rural areas of the Basin over a 25 year period.

Urban sanitation and wastewater disposal programmes would
also be given high priority and these facilities would be
constructed during the life of Master Plan in all urban areas.
Improvements to the hydrological and groundwater monitoring

network, as well as the strengthening of water quality
monitoring, would be implemented over the initial five year
period. To accomplish this capacity building for hydrometric and
groundwater monitoring is required, which would also take
place during this period.
Pollution control is also of great importance to the growth and

health of the RVLB. This is mainly an issue of regulation and
enforcement, both of which are weak at present. Capacity
building is required to strengthen pollution control enforcement,
which would be started during this early phase of the Master
Plan, but continue throughout.
9.2.3 Natural Resources

The agricultural development programmes would be carried out
over a 15 year period between 2010 and 2025. It is anticipated
that some of the programmes, e.g. promotion of export
horticultural crops, would be implemented over a period of up to
5 years, while the remaining agricultural projects, e.g.
expansion of agricultural extension services, improved seed
production/distribution, promotion of cash crops, and improved
crop marketing systems, would take up to 15 years to complete.
Livestock development projects would also be implemented
between 2010 and 2025. Some livestock programmes, e.g.
promotion of dairy goat raising, would be implemented in the
short term (up to 5 years), while the remaining livestock
projects,(for example, development of dairy multiplication
centres, establishment of animal health posts, development of
livestock markets, and rangeland rehabilitation) would take
between 6 and 15 years to complete.
With regard to soil and water conservation, the proposed

interventions would be implemented as part of integrated
watershed management programmes, e.g. integrated watershed
development in Western Lake Ziway and Bilate sub-Basins.

These programmes will cover all the erosion prone watersheds
in the Basin; it is envisaged that they would be undertaken
throughout the Master Plan period year period starting in 2010.
The forestry and agro-forestry projects would be implemented

over a 15 year period. A few programmes, e.g. production and
marketing of aromatic gum and incense, would be implemented
in the short term, but most forestry projects, e.g. agro-forestry
and community forestry, industrial forest development, and
conservation of natural forests/woodlands practices would
require at least 15 years. Similarly, the apiculture projects, e.g.
capacity building in apiculture extension, will be implemented
over a 5 to 10 year period.
Most fisheries programmes, such as Lake Abaya and Chamo

fisheries development and infrastructure development for shore
facilities, are expected to be implemented between 2010 and
2015, while more longer term projects, e.g. improved
management of RVLB fisheries, would be carried out over a 6 to
15 year period.
The wildlife management programmes would all be undertaken

in the short to medium term but some projects, i.e.
rehabilitation of Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park, could be
implemented within five years.
The mineral resources projects, e.g. epithermal gold prospecting

and development of diatomite deposits, are envisaged to be
undertaken over a five year period. These projects are mainly
evaluation and prospecting studies and do not entail any direct
investment in mining activities. The possible opportunities for
the private sector to invest in the mining industry in the future
are not known, and so it was not possible to determine an
implementation and investment schedule for the mining sector
within the context of the Master Plan.
9.2.4 Energy Resources

Energy conservation programmes, e.g. promotion of energy
efficient wood stoves and promotion of improved charcoal
production, would be initiated in 2010 and completed within 10
years. The development of alternative sources of energy, e.g.

solar, wind and geothermal power, are likely to take longer and
so would be implemented in both the short and medium term.
9.2.5 Industry and Commerce

The development of industry and commerce within RVLB will
depend almost exclusively on private investment. To attract
private enterprises to invest in industrial development within
the Basin, the government needs to provide a suitable enabling
environment. The required measures include a significant
improvement in the economic and social infrastructure (e.g.
roads, water supply, electricity, telecommunications, education,
health services etc), favourable administrative regulations and a
sound financial/legal framework.
The projects designed to encourage private investment, e.g.

fully services workplaces, export processing zones and
industrial networking, will be implemented over a 15 year
period. It is envisaged that tourism promotion, e.g.
establishment of tourist information centres, will be undertaken
over the initial 5 year period.
9.2.6 Economic Infrastructure

The proposed road projects within RVLB would be implemented
over a 25 year period starting in 2010. However, most of the
road development programme will be undertaken in the short to
medium term; this includes both upgrading/rehabilitation of
existing truck and links roads and the construction of new
roads. The regional and rural road programme is also expected
to be undertaken over a 25 year period. The programme to
upgrade urban and rural markets is also likely to be largely
completed within a 15 year period.
With regard to the urban electrification programme, a 25 year

period implementation period is envisaged. Similarly, the
expansion of telecommunications to both urban and rural areas
will take the full life of the Master Plan to complete.
9.2.7 Education and Health

The education programmes (for example, expansion of primary,
secondary and tertiary education facilities as well as staff
training/capacity building), would be implemented throughout

the Master Plan period. The health programmes will also be
implemented over a 25 year period; these include development
of health facilities, expansion of family health and planning
services, and training of health workers,.

Figure CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
SCHEDULE.20: Implementation schedule for
Master Plan interventions

10 INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANISATIONAL
FRAMEWORK
10.1 Introduction
A full treatment on institutional issues was presented in Phase 1

Report, Volume 6, National and Regional Economics and Policy
Framework, Annex B, Institutional Development and Capacity
Building. It is not repeated in full here, but its main points are
discussed in this section.
The one theme that runs through all sectors is that of

institutions and management. Most of the problems that have
retarded development in the past, and which are now
constraints to future development in the RVLB, are management
related. The management problems are mainly related to
government, at national, regional and wereda levels, because of
limited capacity in the organisations which regulate or control
the various sectors. These organisations will have a hand in
implementing the Master Plan and, if it is to succeed, capacity
building will be necessary.
This section first puts forward institutional ideas for

implementing the Master Plan itself. Subsequent sections
highlight specific institutions or organisations for which capacity
building will be of great importance to development of the
RVLB. This Master Plan is not carrying out a detailed capacity
building analysis on any institution; there are too many, and
determining the capacity building needs of each one is a major
project in itself. Rather this study highlights major issues and
recommends capacity building studies to be carried out under
some subsequent programme. However, it should be noted that
these studies are urgent.

10.2 Managing the Implementation of the Master Plan
10.2.1 General
Public investment for implementing the Master Plan and for the
economic development of the RVLB is considerable, being
estimated at ETB 29.45 billion over the Master Plan period from
2008 to 2035 (2008 prices). This raises the issue of project
implementation capacity within the regions. Many of the
existing services are underfunded, and poorly operated and
directed. The expansion needed just to manage the increased
load of projects will put a strain on government services in all
areas; advanced planning will be needed to provide additional
education and training, expansion and redirection of services,
improvement of existing services, etc.
Some of the work for achieving the goals of the Master Plan,
and the bulk of the investment, comprises public infrastructure
such as roads, communications, education, health, water supply
and sanitation, etc. Responsibility for project implementation in
all these sectors is already established and there is no need to
change this structure. Most are regional responsibilities, though
some aspects will need involvement and/or direction from the
ministry level.
There is a further bulk of work which is not specifically

infrastructure or sector related. It includes water management,
watershed management, soil and water conservation,
environmental protection, wildlife management, management of
parks and other protected areas, etc. These are all very
important areas of the Master Plan and the development of the
Basin. Responsibility for these areas is also well established,
though these are areas which are probably in greatest need of
institutional capacity building.
10.2.2 National Level Institutions

At the national level, most Ministries have responsibilities which
pertain to at least some aspects of implementing the Master
Plan. The most important ones for the Master Plan are described
briefly below.

The Ministry of Capacity Building (MoCB) acts as a coordinating
body for capacity building in the country, aimed at achieving the
objectives of the national and sectoral programmes. It fully
realises that new capacity is required for continued and
accelerated economic growth. It is therefore obviously a key
ministry as so much capacity building will be required.
All spending with regard to Master Plan implementation will be

organised through the Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED). MoFED also sets development priorities
and strategies in cooperation with the other ministries, and
works to encourage and promote the private sector, both of
which are important in implementation. In addition, MoFED
formulates strategies for managing foreign aid and loans,
negotiates and signs aid and loan agreements, and monitors
their implementation.
The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) is the main federal

body responsible for water resources, involved in study, design,
development and management. It is the ministry responsible for
carrying out this Master Plan study, as well as all other river
Basin studies. Implementing large scale irrigation and other
water resources projects are also part of its mandate.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD)

has the objectives of increasing agricultural productivity and
production, introducing modern technology and building the
capacities of regional BoARDs. Increasing agricultural
productivity is the foundation of this Master Plan. Also, soil and
water conservation and the reduction of land degradation is part
of the mandate of this ministry, though most work is now
through the regional BoARD.
The Ministry of Education (MoE) is responsible for improving

education, which is well understood to be the key to sustainable
development; education is recognised as the greatest factor in
reducing population growth rates and creating the skills needed
to work in a modern, industrialised society. Education is also a
foundation of this Master Plan.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) is a key actor in all

aspects of development in the country. One of the main drivers

of the development of the RVLB will be the growth of industry,
making MoTI an important stakeholder.
The Ministry of Health (MoH) has responsibility for all public

health matters. The Environmental Health Department of the
MoH has the specific responsibility for national hygiene
promotion and sanitation programmes. Health is also an
important component of the Master Plan, as the current poor
state of health of the people in the Basin is a constraint to its
development.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the responsible

body for environmental issues at the federal level. The objective
of EPA is to formulate policies, strategies, laws and standards,
which foster social and economic development in a manner that
enhances the welfare of the people and the sustainability of the
environment. It is also mandated to spearhead the
implementation of such policies, strategies etc. Much of this
Master Plan relates to conservation, and the EPA will have a
major role to play in this.
The Ministry of Culture and Tourism (MoCT) promotes the

country’s tourist attractions on world and domestic tourism
markets. It has responsibility to ensure the country's tourist
attractions are properly developed and managed, and that local
communities share the benefits derived from tourism. It sets and
enforces standards for tourist facilities, and supports the
building of capacity in the tourism sector. Tourism will be of
increasing importance to the overall mix of the economic
development of the RVLB.
10.2.3 Regional, Zonal and Wereda Institutions

There are about 30 institutions which are involved in
development work at regional and wereda levels in the RVLB.
Most federal level institutions have counterparts with similar
responsibilities at the regional level. All are important, but a few
have been selected for discussion here, particularly those most
closely related to socioeconomic development.
Within the field of water resources there are bureaux at regional

level which are responsible to oversee water related work. Most
of the work is now done at zonal and wereda levels. The Zonal

Administration supervises projects and programmes at zonal
and wereda level. The Wereda Administration provides
administrative and political support for all water resources,
including irrigation, small scale hydropower, water supply and
sanitation development in the wereda. The Wereda Council also
identifies projects for both small urban and rural areas, and is
responsible for the sanitation programmes.
The Bureau of Finance and Economic Development prepares

short, medium and long term regional plans. It prepares and
allocates the regional government budget and follows up on its
progress.
The Bureau of Capacity Building is in charge of capacity

development and civil service reform activities in the region. It
provides manpower training and technical support to the sector
organisations in the region.
The Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development provides

extension services for farmers and for parks and natural
resources development. It also prepares environmental
protection guidelines for the region, and is responsible for
prevention/mitigation of man-made and natural disasters.
The Bureau of Education undertakes research on education and

training, and administers higher education and training
institutions in the region. It also supports the education sector,
its facilities and all other educational activities in the region.
The Bureau of Trade, Industry and Tourism encompasses trade,

industry, tourism and investment sectors, with the Tourism
Agency and the Investment Commission as autonomous
organisations under its umbrella. It promotes and facilitates the
expansion of trade, industry and transport in the region, and
enforces regulations relating to trade, industry and the
transport sector. It also provides business registration and
licensing services and regulate trade activities.
The Investment Commission is responsible for monitoring the

investment climate and activities in the region. It issues
investment certificates, renews permits and undertakes
investment promotional activities. The Investment Commission

also encourages private investors, by providing incentives and
information, and by promoting the inflow of foreign capital and
technologies into the country and to the regions.
The Mines and Energy Agency is responsible all aspects of

minerals and extraction for the region, and provide technical
support and encourages the participation of the private sector in
energy and minerals development.
The Bureau of Health develops health extension programmes in

the region, and establishes and administers health research
institutions. It licenses private health facilities and certifies the
proficiency of health professionals. It also monitors the
suitability of food and drink in terms of their health aspects.
10.2.4 Implementation of the Master Plan

The institutions described above all have a role to play in
implementing the Master Plan. In fact, the only real difference
between the work that they would do normally and the work
associated with the Master Plan is one of scale or intensity.
The Master Plan divides the Basin into eight Development Zones
(DZs) as described in Section 6 above. Associated with each DZ
is a set of four Strategies, A through D, which are defined by the
potential level of economic growth for the DZ and the amount of
work, or public sector investment, required to achieve a level of
economic growth. Essentially, Strategy A is a very low level of
public infrastructure investment and efforts to improve the
productivity of resource exploitation, and Strategy D is a high
level of investment and effort. These are also described in
Section 6.
In order to implement the Master Plan, the responsible

institutions within each DZ would need to alter their
infrastructure and other budgets accordingly. This, in turn,
would require the regional Bureaux to adjust their budget
allocations and direct resources to those areas and institutions.
For implementing the Master Plan some form of overall

coordination and monitoring will be required, especially as
regional budgets may be disbursed differently to weredas which
are involved or not in the Master Plan area. This would require a

national level body or committee to ensure direction and,
especially, finances. Most of the work is carried out under the
direction of the Regional administrations and their various
Bureaux. Representatives of these also need to be on a steering
committee.
There is an existing Steering Committee and three Technical

Advisory Committees (TACs) already set up to monitor and steer
progress on this Master Plan study. They are established in
Oromiya and SNNP Regional States and at the national level;
they are ideally placed to move into the management of
implementation with the completion of the Master Plan.
Within the MoWR, there is a department responsible for

execution of the Master Plans. They could manage the
information required by the Steering Committee and TACs, and
ensure they have what they need to manage implementation. A
project has been put forward in the Project Portfolio to develop
a data base specifically for information created in the various
master plans.
10.3 Extension and Support Services
10.3.1 Introduction
There are several specific areas which require capacity building
and which will have the greatest impact on the implementation
of the Master Plan and the economic and social development of
the RVLB. These are briefly noted below.
10.3.2 Agriculture and Livestock

The main concern in agriculture is extension services.
Agricultural productivity is extremely low across the Basin, due
mostly to farmers’ lack of knowledge of good agronomic
practice, a lack of understanding of markets and how they may
respond to markets and a lack of understanding of the value of
soil and water conservation.
In other words, farmers need to be educated in better

husbandry of their land resources and crop management. This is
done through the FTC system. At present there are not as many

FTCs up and running as there should be, staffing numbers are
low and budgets are insufficient to carry out their work. It will
be a major logistical task to staff the FTCs because of the need
to recruit and train a large number of people fairly quickly.
To achieve a reasonable level of economic growth and to drive

the development of industry in the Basin requires a good level of
growth in agricultural productivity. Most of this must be done
through intensification rather than expansion of area, as most of
the good agricultural land is already used. To date, growth in
agricultural productivity through intensification has been only
about 1% per annum, which is too low for any real progress. To
increase this requires good agricultural extension and other
forms of farmer education.
Other areas where agriculture related extension and education

are required are for soil and water conservation, agroforestry
and markets.
The main issues with livestock, especially cattle, are the low
productivity per animal, the overabundance of animals in the
RVLB and the damage they do to the environment in terms of
land degradation. In addition, the rising feed requirements
conflict with rising food requirements for people. Essentially,
livestock are not productive enough to be worth keeping in
many cases. The Master Plan economic modelling shows
livestock to be one of the main barriers to economic growth.
This is under the assumption of little or no improvement in
productivity per animal. If productivity is increased
substantially, livestock can contribute to the Basin economy. To
do so requires improved breeds and feeds, combined with lower
animal numbers. Farmers and pastoralists need to learn about
how to improve productivity and the economics of maintaining
so many animals for so little gain.
A full analysis of the institutional capacity building needs for

agricultural extension is the necessary starting point. This
should be done with some urgency, as growth expectations are
so dependent on raising agricultural and livestock productivity.

10.3.3 Fisheries
The main issue in fisheries from an institutional point of view is
regulation and enforcement. Fishing remains unlicensed and
unregulated and this has damaged fish stocks and left the
industry with very poor management. There is no fishery
legislation at the regional government level and therefore no
regulation or enforcement. While there is some government
involvement in the industry there has been inadequate
manpower and very low budget allocations for enhancing
development. Local administrations have lacked awareness of
the importance of fish as a food source and the economic and
social benefits of a thriving fishery. There is only a weak link
between research and extension, and no information has passed
on as guidance to fishermen or to the industry.
For fisheries to become a productive sector of the economy,

licensing, regulation, enforcement are needed to conserve the
fish stocks. This must be done with urgency, as the stocks are
declining rapidly and may soon be beyond recovery. There are
already policy and law regarding these aspects, at least at the
national level, which needs to be finalised and enforced at
regional level.
Fishermen do not have the knowledge to develop appropriate

technology on their own. There is unrestricted use of certain
fishing gear and methods which is damaging fish stocks and
destroying spawning grounds. Fishermen have never been
instructed in good fishing practice, and feel no responsibility for
their destructive fishing methods.
A full institutional analysis needs to be done for each of the two

regions, Oromiya and SNNPRS. This needs to begin with the
legal base, and assess (i) what needs to be done to get
regulations in place and (ii) how to go about enforcing
regulations, including manpower and budgets. A realistic plan
for development of the industry, for monitoring and for
controlling destructive activities must be included in the
analysis. The analysis is required across the board, from
regulation to fishing practice, to processing to markets. This
analysis must be done with urgency as fish stocks are already on
the decline.

10.4 Education
From an institutional perspective, capacity building in education

is about teacher numbers and quality. Section 5.10 estimates the
number of new teachers needed over the Master Plan period at
282,346. This averages at almost 10,000 new teachers each
year, which means a capacity of 10,000 places each year at
teacher colleges just to serve the needs of the RVLB, not to
mention the other areas of the country. As well as teachers there
are requirements for administrators and other non-academic
positions to be filled.
Supplying these teachers is a serious logistical problem in itself.

A full analysis of how this may be achieved is required, covering
the Ministry of Education, regional Bureaux of Education,
teacher colleges and schools themselves. The study needs to
include how to bring children into primary school, how to get
them to and through secondary school, and on to technical
colleges or universities.
In addition to teachers, a significant investment in school

buildings and transport is required. This will require trained
project managers to ensure that the school infrastructure is
properly run.
Education is the foundation of economic growth in the Basin and

the sooner this analysis gets started, the sooner teachers will be
in the schools and the faster the economy will start to grow.
10.5 Health
Like education, the health service is understaffed and

underfunded. Section 5.11 estimates the number of new health
professionals at: 2,231 physicians, 3,456 nurses, 9,887
Environmental Health Workers and 3,318 Health Extension
Workers. Thus a lot of people need to be trained each year. In
addition, several thousand buildings of various types, from
hospitals to health posts, need to be constructed; training of a
sufficient number of people to manage such projects will also be
required.

As with education, training of such a large number of skilled
workers is a major logistical task. A full assessment of the
capacity building requirements for health services is urgently
required.
10.6 Environmental Regulation
At the federal level, environmental regulation lies principally

with the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA). However,
under the Establishment of Environmental Protection Organs
Proclamation No. 295/2002, other Ministries which promote
development projects likely to have adverse environmental
effects were allowed to create their own EIA Units. MoWR and
the Ethiopian Roads Authority are among the Ministries that
have established such units. The proclamation also re-
established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC), a
cross-sectoral co-ordinating body with members from various
Ministries, which was to advise the federal EPA and supervise
its activities. However, the EPC has only met once and
effectively is not functioning.
The EPA is responsible, among other things, for formulating

environmental policies, strategies, laws and standards and for
implementing the EIA process for projects that are of national
importance, are funded by international donors, or affect two or
more regional states. In practice the EPA has successfully
prepared a comprehensive set of documentation including
general and sectoral guidance on EIA and Environmental
Management Plans, environmental discharge standards, and
environmental quality standards. However, the EIA process and
pollution control regimes are not being implemented in
accordance with the legislation.
The EPA receives few EIAs for review and approval and those
that are issued are mainly required by International Funding
Institutions such as World Bank and the Ethiopian Development
Bank. Those commissioned by other Ministries tend to be
reviewed within the Ministry, with a small sample forwarded to
the EPA. This is in part an acknowledgement of the lack of staff
and expertise in the EPA and also the lack of political authority

of the EPA. Very few private sector projects are subject to EIA,
due to lack of awareness of the requirements and a loophole in
the process of obtaining land leases through the Investment
Offices, which by-passes the need for EIA. As a result, the EPA
has little regulatory control over decisions to approve important
development projects or to the stipulate appropriate
environmental protection and mitigation conditions that should
be applied to such projects. Once projects are approved, the
EPA has few resources to monitor their construction to ensure
compliance with the mitigation and monitoring plans set out in
the EMPs.
The Industrial Pollution Unit has a remit to control and monitor

industrial pollution in Ethiopia. In the early 2000s they
undertook an inventory of industry in the Addis area and have
subsequently been undertaking a water quality monitoring
programme of surface waters in the Addis area and upper
Awash. However, they do not have the resources to expand the
water quality monitoring programme, they lack equipment to
monitor other environmental media (soils, air quality, and noise
levels), and despite the legislation, they lack powers of entry to
inspect premises and sample trade effluent. The unit is
chronically under-staffed due to skills shortages.
Responsibility for environmental matters is devolved to the

Regional Environmental Agencies (REAs). Many of the
institutional and regulatory weaknesses described above also
pertain to the regional authorities. The REAs occupy relatively
weak positions in the government hierarchy. In SNNPRS the
REA is a unit within the Department of Natural Resources and
Rural Land Administration, which is itself one of six
departments within BoARD. In Oromiya the REA is the
Environmental Protection Office which reports directly to the
Office of the Regional President; however, despite its
autonomous position it is still a relatively weak office. The REAs
are chronically understaffed, underfunded, and have little real
authority in implementing the EIA system and industrial
pollution control. They lack monitoring equipment and
laboratory facilities, so any environmental monitoring has to be
contracted out to external laboratories. As with the federal EPA,
the REAs do not actively participate in the land leasing process,
which is managed by the Regional Investment Offices.

Consequently, REAs are often unaware of proposals for major
developments located in environmentally sensitive sites or
which by their size or nature may give rise to adverse
environmental and social effects.
In line with other government offices, the EPA and REAs are
under-funded, under-staffed, and under resourced. These are
weak organisations that do not in reality have the resources or
the political support to regulate potentially environmentally
damaging developments, either through the permitting process
or through the control of emissions of established enterprises.
Capacity building is necessary to support the environmental

monitoring and regulation needed as the RVLB develops. As
described here, there are several organisations involved at
several levels of administration. A complete assessment of the
institutions and their needs with regard to capacity building is
needed urgently.
10.7 The RBO for RVLB
10.7.1 Background
Special attention is given to the creation of the RVLB River
Basin Organisation, as it will be the central body for managing
water and managing the watersheds.
Water resources are not managed at all in the RVLB. There is a

good legal and policy framework in place in Ethiopia for water
resources management and environmental management. The
problem remains in implementing and enforcing them. These
tasks have proved difficult for the regional authorities to
manage, but a River Basin Organisation (RBO) is the right sort
of organisation to do so, having these as its only tasks and
having involvement in both.
Under this Master Plan for the RVLB, rapid development will
take place over these next three decades. This means significant
changes in the dynamics of the Basin, including increased water
demands and increased pressure on the resource and on the
environment of the Basin. The lakes themselves are fragile

ecosystems as well as being important resources for
development, if they are properly managed. How, and how well,
the watershed is managed and protected is of great importance
to the sustainability of the Basin and its social and economic
development.
At present irrigation is the largest user of water in the Basin,

followed by domestic water supply and abstraction for Soda Ash
production. The proportional water use by sector will change
over the next decades as industry takes over from agriculture as
the largest share of the Regional Gross Domestic Product
(RGDP). With water as a constraint, the main question to be
asked is “…which is the best use of water and the best way to
use it for the development interests in the Basin?” An RBO is
best placed to gather the interests of stakeholders on such a
question and coordinate them to make decisions on water
allocation.
River Basin Organisations have been established in law in

Ethiopia, and can now be created and developed in reality. A
department has been set up in the MoWR to facilitate RBOs and
the process of creating the Abbay RBO is already underway. The
establishment of a RBO for RVLB is expected to get underway
within the coming year.
10.7.2 Considerations for the RBO

RBOs must be established from the beginning as serious, well
directed water management organisations. If not, they never
develop the confidence and trust from the public and other
water users necessary. This means RBOs must be well planned,
well staffed and well funded.
It is unnecessary for all RBOs in the country to have the same

structure and the same way of working. In fact, they should not
have the same structure and the same way of working, because
the RBO must be designed for, and to be able to respond to, the
needs of the Basin. Each Basin is different, the needs of each
Basin are different, and therefore the RBOs should be different.
The responsibilities, duties and tasks of the RBO are many and
varied. The basic responsibility of the RBO is simple: “to ensure

an adequate supply of water of sufficient quality to all water
users”, but this requires attention to several areas:
 maintaining watershed health

 developing and maintaining water allocation and budgets
 developing and maintaining a good understanding of the
needs of water users
 developing and maintaining a good understanding of the
resource and its variations
 developing and maintaining a good base of information
10.7.3 Adopting the Principles of IWRM

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is the term
given to what is now considered best practice in water
management. Specific definitions have evolved over the 16 years
since the Dublin Principles4 were first put forward. At the Rio
Conference later in the same year, six basic principles of IWRM 5
were presented and they provide a good founding in what is
meant by IWRM:
1. The river Basin is the correct administrative unit for

managing water.
2. Water resources and the land which forms the river Basin
area must be integrated, in other words, planned and
managed together.
3. Social, economic and environmental factors must be
integrated within water resources planning and
management.
4. Surface water and groundwater and the ecosystems
through which they flow must be integrated within water
resources planning and management.
5. Public participation is necessary for effective water
resources decision making.
6. Transparency and accountability in water management
decision making are necessary features of sound water
resources planning and management.
4
The Dublin Principles arose from the International Conference on Water and the
Environment in 1992.
5
These principles evolved from the Dublin Principles at the Conference on Sustainable
Development in Rio, also 1992.

IWRM is not intended as a strict set of rules that would apply
around the world, but rather a flexible approach based on the
above principles which can be adapted to the needs of the
individual country or Basin. Integration is the key word in
IWRM, and refers to:
 integrating the water managers and the water users – the

RBO needs to consider the water users as carefully as the
water resources; often the best structure is to have one
management body (the RBO) and one stakeholder advisory
body which is separate
 integrating economics, society and environment or ecology –
too often water resources management is done either in a
vacuum, or decision making has been on the basis of
economics alone, a situation that never results in
sustainability or in meeting the needs of the users or of civil
society
 integrating water and health - which is an obvious and well
known connection
 integrating water and industry - as industry is both a water
user and, potentially, a water polluter, and there are also
important economic drivers to how water is used and abused
 integrating information – information isn’t just hydrology,
but all sorts of information regarding many aspects of the
society, the economy, the environment, etc.
 integrating water quantity and water quality – water quality
is just as important as quantity, and the only way to have a
healthy water body is to manage them together
 integrating surface water and groundwater - is a top priority
 integrating water and land is essential as all water in rivers
and lakes originates on the land, and protecting the
watershed is protecting the water
 integrating people and their environment is also important,
especially in conflict prevention and resolution.
10.7.4 Overcoming Resistance

There is often resistance to integrating elements of water
management because some of the work and responsibility (and
money) is currently managed by other organisations. There can
also be resistance to the inclusion of environmental concerns

such as water quality, watershed management, ecological
protection because ‘traditional’ water resources people see it as
unimportant or too expensive, or some other such excuse.
However, it is important to note that in most western countries
25 to 30 years ago rivers, lakes aquifers and other water bodies
were polluted. A decision was made to clean them up and now
most water bodies are clean, fish and other water or shoreline
animals and plants have returned, the cost of water treatment
has dropped and water bodies are now pleasant places to live
and visit for recreational purposes.
This was accomplished without damage to the economy –

nobody can deny that those same western countries have had
strong economic growth all through these past 25 to 30 years. It
is proven that managing water in an environmentally
sustainable way does not damage the economy; rather, it
supports its growth.
There is often initial resistance to involving stakeholders as they

are seen as a ‘problem’ or ‘too time consuming’. But in the
above example of western rivers, the clean up happened
because the stakeholders demanded it. In other countries where
RBOs have been formed, there has been initial opposition to a
stakeholder-based approach to water resources management.
However, within a year or two of their establishment, the RBO
and the water users both see its value first hand and work
harder to make it function effectively. Understanding the
interests of stakeholders (water users and other interested
bodies) makes the job of RBOs easier.
10.7.5 Typical Tasks, Duties and Responsibilities

There are a multitude of tasks in water management. The ones
listed below are typical of RBOs and cover most of the areas
necessary:
Administrative:
 finances and budgets
 planning
Public Awareness and Liaison:

 liaison with public

 press releases
Planning:
 surface water yield assessment and forecasting
 groundwater yield assessment and forecasting
 water quality assessment
 water demand forecasting
 preparation of long term budget plans
 preparation of annual budgets
Monitoring and Information:

 monitoring of water resources: water quality, surface water,
groundwater
 monitoring of wetlands, river health, lake health, watershed
 assessing population, changes in economic make up, etc.
 modelling and forecasting
 data sharing with other organisations
 preparation of reports
Conservation and Regulation:

 issuing water use permits
 monitoring and inspection of water use by permit
 issuing discharge licenses
 monitoring and inspection of discharges
 planning for protection of water bodies
 monitoring, planning for areas of special interest
 water demand assessment and forecasting
 preparation of reports
Environmental:
 review of EIAs for projects in the Basin
 general monitoring of environment
Engineering:
 engineering review of projects in the Basin
 possible small in-house projects
10.7.6 Staffing and Financing

Water and watershed management require a large number of
highly trained personnel. At present there are very few people

with the sort of training required available in Ethiopia, because
there has been little call for these skills. It also appears to be
the case that those responsible for establishing RBOs may not
be fully aware of the extent of the staffing requirements.
To provide a general picture, the RBO will need specialists in

water management, engineers, water quality specialists, lab
technicians, hydrogeologists, financial and economic planners,
environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, field technicians of
many sorts, inspectors and regulators, lawyers, administrators
and many others.
Where RBOs function they are properly staffed. Using the UK

Environment Agency as an example of a well run water
management organisation, they have a staff of about 8,000 for
the water management part (as they have other environmental
responsibilities). The annual budget is about 200 million Pounds
Sterling (about ETB 3.8 billion). These are the requirements for
a country of about 60 million people, with water resources
which are used to their limit and with a strong environmental
interest among the populace.
The RVLB has only 1/6th of the population, though it will be

greater than one third by the end of the Master Plan period. It is
fully understood that the difference in wealth between the two
countries is great and that Ethiopia can’t afford to spend so
much on water management. However, in the RVLB, the water
resources are at the limit of use and every change from now on
must be carefully considered. Only an effective RBO can
accomplish this. Therefore, if it is to go ahead it must be well
staffed and well funded from the start.
As a very rough estimate, aiming at a staff of 400 to 500 by

2012, with an annual budget of somewhere in the vicinity of ETB
50 million would be of the right order.
It should be noted that the financial saving from good water

management, plus the economic value of supporting growth, will
mean the overall economic impact will be positive, not negative.
It should also be kept very clearly in mind that the UK, from the
example above, is a country very much embracing the market

economy. They do not spend £200 million a year for no reason;
they spend it because it returns more.
10.7.7 Education and Training

Ensuring the staff are available will be a difficult task. Assuming
a growth in staff of about 150 per year (and this is just for the
RVLB) will require 150 additional places in technical colleges
and universities. It is unlikely that they currently have the
capacity to absorb such a large number of students. This is an
issue which must be addressed now. Serious consideration must
be given to a well planned programme of sending top quality
students abroad for study; for example, it may be worth
exploring the scope for some training arrangement with a well-
established RBO (in USA or Europe, for example), that could
possibly be funded via an International Funding Institution.
Serious consideration must also be given to raising government
salaries in order to attract people to work in an RBO.
10.7.8 Need for a Full Institutional Assessment

There is an obvious need for a full institutional assessment of
the needs of the RBO for the RVLB. A study should be
contracted out to an international consultant to determine a
strategy for building and growing the RBO for RVLB. It would
show exactly how many and what kind of specialists are needed,
and when, and what budgets will be necessary for each year. A
project profile specifically for this (Project Number CB/WR/01,
“Development of the River Basin Organisation for RVLB”) is
included in the Project Portfolio associated with this Master
Plan.
10.7.9 Special Note on Groundwater Investigations and Monitoring

One very important outcome of the Sector Assessment Studies
accompanying the Master Plan is the knowledge that there is
almost no information on groundwater or on hydrology in the
RVLB (or elsewhere in Ethiopia). This is a very difficult situation,
as groundwater is likely to be the best source for urban and
rural water supply in the future. It is important to develop a
groundwater inventory based on real information. The project
profile GW/CB/01, “Development of Groundwater Inventory,
Database and Monitoring Network” was included in the Project
Portfolio for this purpose.

To generate the information for the inventory it is necessary to
have specific information on boreholes and wells. To begin with,
a regulation should be developed to force all well drillers to log
their boreholes properly, showing the geology and the depths
and thicknesses of successive strata encountered as the drilling
is done. Once the borehole is completed, a pump test is
necessary to assess the hydraulic characteristics of the aquifer.
Water quality sampling is also necessary to create a data base of
aquifer quality. All of this should be mandatory, regulated and
enforced, as it is in countries where water management
functions well.

11 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE MASTER
PLAN
11.1 Employment
11.1.1 Employment by Sector

Expected employment by sector at the beginning and end of the
Master Plan planning period is shown in Figures 11.1 and 11.2
below. For detailed model output by sector please see Appendix
A, Table A.1. The labour force is expected to increase from 7.3
million in 2005 to 16.4 million in 2035, so the relative sizes of
the pie charts have been adjusted accordingly.
Figure ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE MASTER

PLAN.21: Employment by sector RVLB baseline
2005
rural under- urban under-

employed employed
21.6% 5.0%
public services
0.6%
natural resources
57.5%
private services
7.0%
construction industry
0.9% utilities 6.4%
1.0%
Source Rest of the Economy v3.xls

PLAN.22: Employment by sector RVLB projected
2035
rural under-
employed urban under-
public services 5.0% employed
1.1% 1.4%
natural resources
37.8%
private services
29.4%
industry
construction utilities
23.4%
1.0% 0.9%
It is expected that there will be a structural shift in employment

patterns within the RVLB. Employment in the natural resources
sector will decline from its present 58% of the work force to
about 38% by 2035, while employment in industry will rise from
6% now to about 24%. There will be other structural changes in
employment patterns which are discussed below.
11.1.2 Employment in Industry

We can postulate how industry6 will look in 30 years on the basis
of the expected size of the economy, the total population, and
the expected rural:urban split. “Industry” is unlikely to be
characterised by large and medium sized mechanised
production units, because investment capital will continue to be
scarce, and labour will be abundant and cheap, so industrial
units will be relatively small and labour intensive. The model
output supports this. Postulating that demand for industrial
goods will be met principally by large and medium scale
industry leads to the model predicting widespread labour dis-
occupancy in the urban sector, which is clearly an unstable,
unsustainable and therefore unlikely outcome. Modelling
6
“Industry” comprises the following sectors: urban large and medium, urban and rural
small scale, urban and rural cottage, and coffee processing.

industrial output by small scale and cottage industries gives a
much more realistic solution, with urban occupancy over 90%.
It is also expected that industrialisation will not be a purely

urban phenomenon. Rural small scale industry is expected to
increase significantly, partly because of an increase and change
in nature of rural food demand (which may be small, but
accumulated over a large and increasing rural population), and
also because the rate of growth of the rural population will
outstrip land availability, leading to widespread rural dis-
occupancy. As in the situation described above of urban dis-
occupancy under large and medium industrialisation, this is an
infeasible solution and will not come about. In 2005, about 20%
of the industrial (including cottage industry) labour force was
urban. In 2035 this proportion is expected to fall to about 12%.
In 2005 nearly 65% of the industrial labour force was

concentrated in DZ3 and DZ4. However, the model predicts the
somewhat surprising result that in 2035 these DZs will account
for only 40%. This finding is contrary to the presently observed
pattern of industrial development, which could be described as
“corridor creep” from Addis Ababa and other principal cities
along the main highways, such as Nazret. If the future demand
for industrial products was taken up mostly by large and
medium industries then this trend would continue, as this type
of industry seeks demand centres and requires a locational
advantage. However, to seek out the incremental demand from
dispersed rural communities, small scale labour intensive
industrial units have the advantage, especially for perishable
processed food. Their development depends mostly on
purchasing power developing in rural areas and small urban
centres, which in turn depends on larger, more stable urban
markets for agricultural products. At the moment urban food
demand accounts for only 10% of the total food energy demand
of RVLB. EROAM predicts this will rise to only about 20% by
2035, which is still not a large proportion. The rate of
urbanisation as predicted by CSA would have to be substantially
greater to increase it.
Is this likely? Some evidence for expecting a higher rate of

urbanisation than predicted by CSA can be gained by looking at
the rural and urban labour occupancy rates in the RVLB as a

whole. EROAM suggests that overall rural occupancy in 2035
will be about 94%, but significantly lower in DZ3 (90%) and DZ4
(69%)7 than others. The overall urban occupancy is predicted to
be 112% in 2035, and significantly higher in DZ3 (128%) and
DZ4 (118%). Taken together, the estimates suggest that
rural:urban migration will higher than predicted, particularly in
DZ3 and DZ4. Further calculation suggests that the RVLB urban
population might be more than 1 million people higher than
predicted by CSA in 2035 – but this would increase urban food
demand only to 22% of the total for RVLB. From this evidence it
has to be concluded that the diversification of industry into rural
areas and small urban towns will be not be a foregone
conclusion in RVLB. The indications are that the ADLI policy has
a key role to play in economic development and should be
centre-stage in planning.
11.1.3 Employment in Services

Services includes commercial activity outside of industry itself,
including tourism, restaurants, hotels, etc., plus support to
industries and other activities. Employment in services8 as a
proportion of the labour force is expected to rise from about 7%
in 2005 to 29% in 2035. Though the calculations were somewhat
more detailed, this estimate conforms to the assumption that
growth in employment in large, medium and small industry will
create an incremental three jobs in the service sector; a general
relationship observed in similar developing economies.
11.1.4 Employment in the Natural Resources Sector

Employment in the natural resources sectors 9 as a proportion of
the labour force is expected to decline from its present level of
58% to less than 38% in 2035. This reflects the limited land and
water resources of the Basin, the growth of the rural population
which outstrips the availability of work in natural resources, and
the opportunity for work in other sectors. The proportion of
7
These estimates take into account the adjustments in DZ populations described in
section 1.2.3.
8
Employment in “services” comprises the following sectors: Financial intermediation,
real estate and ownership of dwellings, urban and rural trade hotels and restaurants,
urban and rural community social and personal services and urban and rural households
with employed persons.
9
Employment in “natural resources” comprises crops, livestock, fisheries, apiculture and
forestry.

actively employed people in crop production will rise from its
present level of 64% of people employed in the natural
resources sector to about 75%; this is congruent with the
additional land resources available. However, work in livestock
production is predicted to fall, from 34% to only 19%. This
reflects the application of a de-stocking policy. Significant
productivity increases will compensate for the drop in labour
requirements associated with the fall in numbers of livestock.
The proportion of labour in forestry rises from 2% to 5%
reflecting the considerable increase in area of plantations.
Numbers employed in fishing and bee keeping change very
little.
11.1.5 Labour Dis-occupancy

Probably the most encouraging result shown in Figure 11.1 and
Figure 11.2 above is the predicted reduction in rural and urban
labour dis-occupancy. Rural occupancy is projected to rise from
77% to 94%. This is due to the expected creation of jobs in rural
non-natural resources activities, particularly the rural small
scale industry, cottage industries and trade, hotels and
restaurants sectors. Urban occupancy is also expected to rise,
from 57% to 92%.
11.2 Labour Productivity
Return to labour (Value Added) is an essential measure of the

productivity of an economy. For detailed model output by sector
please see Appendix A, Table 2. The return to labour (Value
Added divided by the RVLB labour force) was estimated to be
ETB 1,220 per annum in 2005, rising to ETB 2,020 per annum
by 2035, an average annual increase of 2.2% over 30 years. This
is low but probably realistic. It is difficult to imagine the
introduction of industries or services which will dramatically or
rapidly improve overall labour productivity from its present low
base. During the planning period, most farms will remain small
and operated by hand labour. Forestry activities will similarly be
dominated by manual labour. Industrial processes are likely to
remain basic. The very large and rapidly growing available work
force implies that labour will remain abundant and therefore
cheap, giving a comparative advantage to industries which use
predominantly unskilled and semi-skilled labour. Given this
likely cap on the complexity of the agricultural and industrial

sectors, the tertiary services required will also remain fairly
simple and low-value.
Figure 11.3 and Figure 11.4 show the present and expected
future returns to labour in natural resources and industry. It is
quite obvious that no significant changes in productivity per
capita labour occur, and this is because no radical changes in
technology have been modelled in any sector.
Fishing remains a productive activity because of the relatively

high price of the product and the necessarily limited number of
the labour force. Productivity in crop production is almost static;
despite increases in the use of inputs, average yields across the
Basin progressively decline as the proportion of marginally
suitable land in the cropped area increases. No great shift to
large scale mechanised agriculture is envisioned or modelled.
The necessary genetic improvement in livestock to achieve
serious increases in labour productivity will not occur without
the input of large volumes of improved feed – much of which
would have to be imported into the Basin because land is fully
committed to producing food crops. There may be diminishing
returns to labour with the adoption of improved and new hives
which yield more, but require proportionally more labour.
Small labour productivity increases have been modelled in

large, medium and small scale industry (about 1% pa) to reflect
improved mechanisation processes and labour organisation, but
this makes little difference to overall productivity. Economic
growth comes from the shift in employment from natural
resources (low returns) to industrial sectors (relatively high
returns), as shown by the difference in scale on the y axis of the
two graphs.

PLAN.23: Return to labour in natural resources
sectors
18,000 Crops
16,000
14,000
Livestock
12,000
Fishing
10,000
8,000
Bee keeping
6,000
4,000
Fuel &
2,000 timber
0
2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035

PLAN.24: Return to labour in industrial sectors
25,000
Large and Medium scale
industry
20,000
Urban small scale industry
15,000 Urban cottage industry
10,000 Rural small scale industry
5,000 Coffee processing
0
2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035

Table 11.1 shows the expected return to labour by DZ over the
planning period. Note the increase in labour productivity in
DZ4. The present very low level of return to labour compared to
other DZs indicates a possible over-enumeration of the (rural)
population of DZ4. Seasonal or permanent out-migration is likely
to be a feature of this zone (as DZ3, also low) but no information
is available on this, other than anecdotal suggestions of
movement into the Genale-Dawa Basin. The considerable
increase in labour productivity is due to a modelled movement
out of the zone (both urban and rural, described in Section
11.2.3) and a structural change in employment from natural
resources to industry, described in Section 11.2.2.
Table ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE MASTER

PLAN.58: Return to labour, ETB per annum per
head of DZ labour force
200 200 200 201 202 202 203 %
5 8 9 5 0 5 5 chan
ge
1,75 1,84 2,06 2,34 2,28 2,23 2,35
DZ 1 4 6 7 1 5 9 4 34%
1,80 1,88 2,09 2,31 2,28 2,30 2,47
DZ 2 0 4 4 4 8 0 7 38%
1,06 1,26 1,46 1,79 1,91 1,93 2,26
DZ 3 2 5 2 8 1 3 4 113%
1,01 1,03 1,27
DZ 4 471 647 765 947 1 0 5 171%
1,18 1,23 1,27 1,23 1,05 1,29 1,46
DZ 5 0 0 4 3 2 9 1 24%
1,84 1,79 2,04 2,42 2,38 2,23 2,29
DZ 6 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 25%
1,24 2,08 2,21 2,33 2,15 2,16 2,18
DZ 7 9 1 1 6 4 9 6 75%
1,54 1,59 1,64 1,85 1,84 1,90 2,00
DZ 8 5 8 0 2 6 6 8 30%
1,22 1,35 1,54 1,85 1,83 1,83 2,02
RVLB 3 5 8 3 4 4 8 66%

Rather low increases in return to labour can be expected from
DZ5 and DZ6 which are predominantly agrarian and will remain
so in the future.
11.3 Regional Gross Domestic Product
11.3.1 The Prognosis for Economic Growth

In Phase 1, the RGDP of RVLB (sensu stricto, the area of 52,000
km2 within the watershed) in 2005 was estimated to be ETB 8
billion, but this was based on agricultural statistics from 2001.
These statistics were updated from wereda crop returns to
2005. In addition, the total RGDP of a few weredas falling only
partially within RVLB was added. See Annex C, Section 2.1 for a
description of mapping units and areas. The RGDP was then re-
estimated to be about ETB 10 billion. The distribution between
sectors is shown in Figure 11.5. For detailed model output by
sector please see Appendix A, Table 3.
The distribution of RGDP between the sectors is shown in Figure
11.6, and the size of the pie chart has been roughly inflated to
represent this tripling of size.

PLAN.25: RVLB RGDP 2005

PLAN.26: RVLB projected RGDP 2035
The strategic interventions recommended in the RVLB Master

Plan are expected to be necessary but not sufficient conditions
to achieve growth in the Basin economy to ETB (2005) 35.5
billion by 2035.
The projected growth rate of the economy is adequate at

between 3 and 4 per cent per annum, but given the population is
expected to more than double from the present 13.6 million to
28.8 million in the period (whole wereda population estimates,
CSA low variant) the growth in RGDP per capita is more modest
– only between 1 and 2 per cent per annum.
However, and as shown in the pie charts, there is expected to be

a significant structural change in the economy, with natural
resources declining from 60% to only 36% of RGDP, and industry
increasing from 5% to 13%. Services too will occupy a greater
proportion of RGDP, from 13% in 2005 to 26% in 2035. The
relative value provided by utilities will double, and significant
increases will also be seen in the RGDP of health and education.

11.3.2 The Natural Resources Sector
Despite a decline in the natural resources sectors as percentage
of the total RVLB economy, understanding the economic
performance of these sectors nevertheless remains central to
understanding growth in RVLB. It will be essential for crop and
livestock production to respond to incremental food demand of
the growing population. Without this flexibility, there will be a
combination of the following very undesirable outcomes:
 increasing agricultural imports into RVLB

 unsatisfied consumer demand for processed food products
 processing of food products outside RVLB and a consequent
slow-down in industrial growth
 declining food security
The prognosis for the crops sector is generally good, though an

annual increase in the value of production of well over 2% per
annum will be necessary – and this taking place on a cropped
area of inevitable declining land suitability as more marginal
land is taken into the farming system. Figure 11.7 shows the
likely path of economic development of the crops sector. While
the value of imports and exports both remain a mere fraction of
the total value of production (as expected, because crops are
relatively low value and bulky, and therefore expensive to trade)
the RGDP crops (the value of production for domestic
consumption plus the value of exports minus the value of
imports) grows rather faster than the value of production for
domestic consumption. This rate of increase is sufficient both to
maintain and to improve the basic level of food security in the
Basin, and to provide raw materials for the expected increase in
food processing which will under-pin industrial growth, which in
turn supports the expansion of the service sector.

PLAN.27: Projected RGDP crops, RVLB, ETB
million
Source EROAM_DZ v14.xls
To achieve this level of growth will require support. Adoption of

improved seed by smallholder farmers (with greater than 1 ha)
will have to be 100%, and nearly 50% of subsistence farmers
will have to use improved seed. Fertiliser application will have
to increase from its present low level (below 10 kg per cropped
hectare) to about 180 kg per cropped hectare. The cost of
incremental seed and fertiliser bears on the farmer, and is
included in the value added estimate in Figure 11.7.
Additionally, there will be public investment costs, particularly
in extension and soil and water conservation. These have been
estimated separately and included in the RGDP estimate.
The expected performance of the livestock sector is not so

optimistic, as shown in Figure 11.8. Production for domestic
consumption remains almost flat. This is because we postulate
de-stocking and only moderate increases in kcal production per
TLU as a result of increased availability of dry matter. A change
in genotype to productive beef and dairy cattle is not envisaged,
as it would require extensive reallocation of crop land to
producing food for livestock.

PLAN.28: Projected RGDP livestock, RVLB, ETB
million
Meanwhile, the twin levers of increasing population and

increasing demand for meat and dairy products begin to bite. By
2035 the demand for meat and dairy products will have tripled,
while production is likely to have increased by only 20%. The
result is either a massive import bill for livestock raw materials
(as has been modelled here), or more likely unsatisfied demand
and a brake on any development in the Basin’s livestock
processing sector, which will have a knock-on effect of slowing
the projected growth of the RGDP. Inflexibility and lack of
capacity in the livestock sector is among the biggest single
brakes on Basin growth.
Neglecting growth opportunities in fisheries and apiculture

(together they account for only 0.7% of RGDP now, and 0.5% in
2035), the forestry sector is of interest even though it is
relatively small. At present RVLB appears to be importing more
value of woody biomass from outside the Basin than it is
producing – a massive burden in transport costs which is
unlikely to continue, particularly with large areas of marginal
land available, much of which is probably more suitable for

forestry than crops10. The EROAM model predicts a considerable
expansion of land in forestry, from about 54,000 ha in 2005 to
851,000 ha in 2035; this takes into account only a moderate loss
of the present woody biomass stock during the period, and the
protection of certain important natural forest areas and game
park areas in DZ1, DZ2 and DZ3. As a result imports fall, and
exports even rise a little. EROAM also models a halving of
woody biomass demand per capita by 2015, due to the adoption
of energy efficient stoves and the use of alternative sources of
energy. Although RGDP woody biomass does not rise quite as
fast as domestic production, it is clear an equilibrium is
established between surplus and demand.
The model tends to suggest that the RVLB can “manage itself”
in woody biomass production much more effectively than in
livestock production. Given adequate protection for key areas of
biodiversity in accessible areas, there is no reason to think that
RVLB will be denuded of woody biomass in 2035. These changes
are shown on Figure 11.9.

PLAN.29: Projected RGDP forestry, RVLB ETB
million
10
Additional land for cultivation available off-farm is modelled as having only 70% of the
yield potential of land in cultivation in 2005.

11.3.3 The Industrial Sector

It is worth reiterating that without the flexibility to increase
production in the natural resources sector, the accommodation
of relatively large numbers of the work force in the industrial
sector will not occur. This is because rural purchasing power
will remain low, reducing market opportunities for all industrial
products (but particularly processed food), and without
industrial growth, urban purchasing power will also remain low.
The result will be a failure to move to even the modest levels of
industrialisation predicted by the ROE model.
The rate of industrialisation is predicated by an expansion of

food demand, not only caused by the numerical increase in the
population, but also by a changing nature of demand. The most
obvious example is the increase in the proportion of animal
protein consumed in the daily diet with increasing disposable
income. In Annex C, an explanation is given of how changing
income elasticity of demand drives this and other dietary
changes. Further, an explanation is given of how the total
expenditure by consumers on food can be subdivided into the
farm gate price of food raw material which the farmer receives,
and the balance, which is spent on transport, processing and
marketing. This amount can be calculated for urban and rural
consumers (they have different diets) on a per capita basis,
multiplied by the number of population and attributed as a gross
value of production increment to different sub sectors of the
economy – food distributors, manufacturers, retailers and so on.
Given rising household incomes, this incremental GVP in food

services can be large, and it is this that drives the relevant
sectors in the ROE model (described in Section 7.5.5). Even with
no change in the composition of diet, the increase in population
provides a substantial increment. At present about 15% of food
expenditure is on food distribution and processing; by 2035 it is
estimated that with moderate changes in income elasticity for
food this could rise to 60%. As the relatively expanding urban
population spends about 12% more on food than rural
consumers now, and may spend up to 60% more in the future,

the lever for industrial and service growth through expanding
food demand is considerable.
However, without the flexibility to respond to demand in the

crops and livestock sectors, the raw material for food processing
will not be available for food manufacturers in urban centres in
RVLB. And because food is relatively expensive to transport, this
means that potential food manufacturers will locate themselves
elsewhere. Growth in both the natural resources sector and the
rest of the economy will be slowed. Therefore it is essential that
the natural resources sectors (which at present are traditionally
managed, under capitalised and with low coefficients of
production) are given the necessary structural support (e.g.
access to quality crop inputs, marketing support, improved
genetic quality of livestock) to allow a reasonable level of
flexibility to meet the present and future demand of industrial
food processors.
11.3.4 Other Sectors

Growth in other important sectors, especially water and
electricity supply, health, education and construction, is easily
stimulated by public investment. Given reliable estimates of the
growth and future location of population, it is also relatively
easy to plan for and cost the investment required. This has been
done for key public investment externally to the ROE model. The
required sums are then turned back into the RGDP estimate
after making a simple adjustment to estimate the value added of
the investment11. However, labour productivity, wages and RGDP
per capita must be adequate to ensure service consumers can
meet the operational costs of the expanded services. If not,
service delivery will decline and RGDP will also decline as a
result. Whether or not the future RGDP is commensurate with
supporting the planned level of public investment is not easy to
calculate. However, the annual expenditure estimates are
between about 2.7% and 8.7% of annual RGDP, which
approximately conform to normal rates of government
investment in an expanding economy.
11
Value added of public investment is assumed to be equivalent to the national discount
rate of 10%.

11.3.5 Distribution of RGDP
Figure 11.10 shows the present and projected distribution of
RGDP between DZs. The largest proportion of RVLB RGDP now
is in DZ3, but by 2035 DZ3 is overtaken by DZ6. Similarly, DZ4
overtakes DZ1. The DZs with the smallest RGDP are DZ5, DZ7
and DZ8, and they hold this position throughout the planning
period. The rate of RGDP growth in DZ4 is about 12% pa,
reflecting the higher level of structural change in the economy
expected in this DZ. DZ6 also has a similar rate of growth,
fuelled by agricultural expansion. High rates of growth are also
seen in DZ7 and DZ8, but arise from a very low base.
In terms of RGDP per capita, DZ4 grows the fastest at 6.3% pa,
but absolute RGDP per capita remains lower than all other DZs.
The explanation for this is that DZ4 has three times the overall
RVLB population density, though it may be that this is an
overestimate. At both the beginning and the end of the planning
period, DZ1 and DZ2 have the highest RGDP per capita. By 2035
RGDP is about ETB (2005) 1,150 per person.
In terms of RGDP per area (km 2), DZ1 leads in 2005 at about
ETB 170,000 per km2, but is overtaken by DZ4 by 2035 which
reaches ETB 601,000 per km2.
From this data one can conclude that the northern part of the
Basin, DZs 1 to 4 have the highest RGDP per km2, but DZ3 and
DZ4 are significantly poorer due to their higher population
density. However, during the planning period the southern DZs
assume an ever-increasing share of Basin RGDP as economic
activities expand into this region, in particular the opening of
new agricultural land.

PLAN.30: RGDP by DZ 2005 projected to 2035
(2005 ETB)
11.4 Distributional Analysis and Poverty Impact
11.4.1 The Gini Coefficient

The Gini coefficient is a measure of equality in the distribution
of wealth, where 0= perfectly equal distribution and 1= perfect
inequality. The formula is:
G  ((Pi 1  Pi )  (I i 1  I i ))
where G = the Gini coefficient, Pi is the number of people in

group i and Ii is the wealth of the people in group i. The RGDP
estimates provide the number of people occupied in, and the
value added for, each sector of the economy. If we raise the
number of people occupied by the average family size and
assume just one person occupied per family, then the wealth
(value added) of all the sectors can be distributed between the
RVLB population. The details of the calculation can be found in
Annex C, together with some theoretical considerations.
The results of the calculation of the Gini coefficient by DZ and

overall based on the EROAM and ROE out-turns of value added
and employment for the Master Plan are given in Table 11.2.
The results are satisfactory, in that the Gini coefficient is

declining in all DZ, indicating more equitable distribution over
time between the population groups considered in the
calculation.

PLAN.59: Gini coefficient by DZ
DZ 2005 2035
DZ 1 0.749 0.643
DZ 2 0.777 0.660
DZ 3 0.754 0.705
DZ 4 0.675 0.567
DZ 5 0.926 0.781
DZ 6 0.801 0.714
DZ 7 0.637 0.614
DZ 8 0.634 0.551
DZ ALL 0.873 0.861
Source Gini v3.xls
The shift in the share of wealth is interesting, and explains the

trend of a declining Gini estimate. In 2005 80% of the Basin
population was associated with the natural resources sector (in
households with employed, self employed and fully or partly dis-
occupied members) and shared 67% of the Basin RGDP. A
further 10% of the rural population gained 9% of RGDP in other
rural but non natural resources activities. The urban population
was only 10% of the total, but shared 24% of the RGDP. The Gini
estimated was relatively high.
By 2035 only 39% of the Basin population is predicted to be

associated with the natural resources sector, which will account
for only 39% of the RGDP. The proportion of the rural population
associated with non natural resources occupations increases to
42%, and they share 21% of the RGDP. The urban population is
now 18% of the total, and shares 34% of the RGDP. The Gini
estimate tells us this is a slightly more equitable outcome. We
can expect this overall pattern to be replicated between the DZs
in varying degrees, because they all show the same trend. The
very high Gini estimated for DZ5 is because the main town for
the DZ is outside the Basin, leading to problems in allocating DZ
rural and urban populations and RGDP.

Part of this favourable result can also be attributed to the
expected reduction of dis-occupancy in both the rural and urban
sectors during the planning period. Dis-occupancy is estimated
by calculating the total labour years required to achieve a given
level of production in a sector, and dividing by the total number
of workers associated with that sector. The percentage result is
a measure of the occupancy of the sector work force. In these
Gini coefficient calculations the occupied and unoccupied are
not treated as separate population groups, because we do not
know the relative share of occupancy between workers.
However, as dis-occupancy falls, productivity rises, and thus the
share of RGDP per capita.
11.4.2 Food Security Impacts

Distributional problems also arise when considering the food
security status of the RVLB. The EROAM and ROE models
calculate the value added accruing to the labour force in each
sector, but can say little about how that wealth is distributed
between workers, households, and household members. Issues
arise from the distribution of pure profit (which may be retained
by owners of capital in the sector), unequal productivity of the
labour force (which results in wage differentials) and
imperfections in the market for wages and salaries.
Nevertheless, EROAM does predict the food security status of
the Basin by DZ (under “normal” conditions of production), and
can provide insights as to the availability of different food types.
Figure 11.11 shows the expected food energy balance of RVLB

under the scenarios and strategies postulated by the Master
Plan. It is easy to see that net trade (indicating the net cross
Basin food energy balance) is a relatively small proportion of
demand and production, which is as it should be given the
relative expense of trading in food products. Furthermore, in
2035 total demand is estimated to be less than production, so in
this case we can be sure that vulnerable rural demand is also
less than production. What is more worrying is that in the short
and medium term, total demand is more than production,
indicating potentially unsatisfied rural demand.

PLAN.31: Projected food energy balance, RVLB
2005-2035
In this case it is necessary to compare the projected rural

energy demand with production, shown in Figure 11.12. Here,
rural food energy demand is always equal to or slightly exceeds
production, and the balance tends to improve over time. This is
an encouraging result, but given the likelihood of bad years of
production due to drought, and the relatively high rate of
incremental crop production assumed in the Master Plan
strategy, the rural food security situation must be considered
vulnerable, at least in the short and medium term.

PLAN.32: Projected rural food energy
requirement, production and trade
EROAM provides output that allows us to locate potentially food

insecure situations by time and DZ, as shown in Table 11.3. The
food deficit DZs are 4, 5, 7 and 8, while the food surplus DZs are
1, 2, 3, and 6. Only DZ4 and DZ5 remain in complete deficit
throughout the planning period, though the status of DZ4 does
tend to improve. All other DZs reach the end of the planning
period comfortably food secure.
Since the rural population projections are known, it is possible

to say that 38% of the Basin rural population live in a food
insecure DZs at the beginning of the planning period (of which
66% are in DZ4) and 27% live in a food insecure DZs at the end
of the planning period.
Intra-Basin trade is obviously highly significant to Basin level

food security in this situation. While net external trade is small,
the EROAM out-turns suggest that about 22% of food energy
consumed in the Basin is traded between DZs. This percentage
falls during the planning period to about 12% as food security of
the DZs improves. Nevertheless the total volume traded does
increase, by about 25% (150,000 tons grain equivalent), which

has implications for necessary improvements in roads, markets
and storage.

PLAN.60: Food energy demand as % of production
Food deficit DZ Food surplus DZ
DZ4 DZ5 DZ7 DZ8 DZ1 DZ2 DZ3 DZ6
2005 63% 75% 54% 83% 147% 148% 112% 129%
2008 61% 73% 63% 80% 142% 145% 112% 122%
2009 61% 71% 61% 78% 149% 153% 115% 129%
117
2015 64% 64% 99% % 150% 153% 118% 139%
116 125
2020 72% 56% % % 152% 158% 122% 153%
134 136
2025 77% 76% % % 156% 166% 127% 152%
130 134
2035 79% 76% % % 155% 163% 130% 149%
In order to plan for this, it is useful to have an idea of which DZs

will trade with each other. EROAM includes a transport model
for each time period which identifies trading costs between DZ,
and during the optimisation process seeks that food transport
costs between DZ will be minimised. Figure 11.13 and Figure
11.14 indicate the changes expected.

PLAN.33: Intra RVLB food energy trade, 2005

PLAN.34: Intra RVLB food energy trade, projected
2035
Intra-Basin trade is at present dominated by exports from DZ1

and DZ2 to the food insecure DZ4, which also imports relatively
small amounts of food from DZ3. Interestingly, DZ4 also exports
to DZ2; this will be mainly roots and enset, for which DZ4 has a

comparative advantage. Trade between DZ4 and DZ6 is
negligible because of poor communications. The food deficit
DZ5 and DZ7, however, rely on DZ6 to meet net deficits.
By 2035, even though all DZs except for 4 and 5 can be

considered food secure, food energy trade has actually
increased; this is because diets have diversified somewhat, and
not every zone can grow all the diverse food crops it requires.
DZ4 remains a major food energy importer, and this mostly
comes from DZ2, DZ3 and DZ6. DZ2 has opportunity for
irrigation, while DZ3 and DZ6 have reserves of unused land
which can be brought into cultivation. DZ2 now imports from
the more distant DZ6 and DZ7. It will be clear from Figure
11.14 that the drivers for food trade are the demand in the
north of the Basin and the availability of additional unused land
in the south that can be brought into cultivation to satisfy it.
11.5 Conclusions
During the planning process, three questions were formulated

about development opportunities in RVLB which the modelling
process could assist in addressing. These are dealt with in turn
below.
Question 1:
Are there any circumstances in which RVLB can maintain its
present level of food security (expressed as kilocalories per
capita per day) from food production within the Basin over the
next 30 years? If so, what changes would be required in the
farming system? Are these changes feasible within the present
or future likely policy environment? What would be the expected
implications for adopting these changes for the rest of the
economy?
RVLB can maintain and improve its present level of food

security until 2035. For many staples the potential yield
increment is such that no significant area expansion will be
required. However, food crop yields must more than double by
2035. For food products with high elasticity of demand
(vegetables and fruit) or lower incremental yield potential (roots
and enset), area increases will be necessary to meet food
demand.

A large expansion of irrigation is unnecessary to achieve these
productivity increases. They can be accomplished within the
rain-fed farming system, though substantial support in farmer
education, soil and water conservation and input supply will be
required. The two-fold impacts of drought on the economy are
both expected to decline in the future. Firstly the “shocks” to
RGDP growth (because of the necessity of foregoing a
proportion of the value added from crops and increasing crop
imports) will decline as crop RGDP falls as a percentage of total
RGDP. Reducing the importance of agriculture in the economy
will therefore increase the region’s resilience to drought.
Secondly, the issue of impact of drought on the poorest (through
increases in food prices and absolute food scarcity) is expected
to diminish. Although the natural resources sector is expected to
remain a large sector of the economy (35%) in 2035, labour
occupancy is projected to increase from its current level of 77%
to 94% by 2035. The implication of this is that the numbers of
rural poor will decline, not only as a percentage of the rural
population but also absolutely, to about half present numbers.
However, although both of these observations are optimistic, it
is unrealistic to think that the negative impact of droughts can
be eliminated in the planning period. Drought may be the
biggest single threat to development.
Changes in the farming system (in terms of production systems

used) are both desirable and necessary. Analysis with EROAM
suggests that crop RGDP in 2035 could be reduced by about 5-
7% if the proportion of subsistence farms on holdings less than
1 hectare continues to rise. Food security would suffer: the
proportion of kilocalorie requirement met by production in
RVLB would fall from 103% to 96%. Occupancy of rural labour
would however be greater: 96% compared with the 94%
projected under Master Plan development strategies.
Question 2:
If it is unrealistic to expect RVLB to remain as a (on balance)
food secure region with a small food export trade to the rest of
the country, then what should be the strategy for the
development of the agricultural sector? For example should it
be (i) to maximise the employment of rural labour (ii) to
maximise production (iii) to minimise environmental

deterioration (iv) to specialise in crops with a comparative
advantage with regard to the rest of the country or the export
trade.
It has been demonstrated that the RVLB does have the capacity
to be a food secure region. This is not only desirable, but vital
for economic growth in the rest of the RVLB economy. The
industrial and service sectors in RVLB need this food production
capacity to be realised in order to meet future food processing
service demand. If the natural resource sector fails to do this,
then food processors will locate to regions outside RVLB where
the natural resources economy generates a more reliable supply
of raw material. RVLB will then have to import processed food
demand, forego value added and employment opportunities in
food processing and have an insecure natural resources
economy. This is an extremely undesirable out-come.
Question 3:
In either circumstance (i.e. 1 or 2 above) what should be the
role of the “rest of the (RVLB) economy” in complementing (or
leading) the development of the natural resources sector?
Possible roles might include (i) a “sink” to provide employment
for displaced rural labour (ii) a source of (urban) demand for
higher value crops (iii) a mechanism to increase value added of
crops through agricultural processing (iv) an alternative engine
of growth from industries relatively un-related to the natural
resources sector.
The strategy postulated by the Master Plan is that the rest of

the economy should complement the development of the natural
resources sector by providing a means to increase the value
added of agricultural production. It has been demonstrated that,
given a reasonable level of economic growth in the Ethiopian
economy as a whole, the incremental demand for value added
will be sufficient to move industry and services into the centre of
the Basin economy. The urban population will also fuel food
demand through higher income elasticity of demand for
foodstuffs which can be produced in RVLB.
Planning to establish economic activities which are not rooted in

the natural resources economy requires the demonstration of
comparative advantage over Addis Ababa and its related growth

corridors, which does not appear to exist in terms of location (in
respect of raw materials and demand for production), capital or
the quality of the labour force.
Given that the capacity of the natural resources economy in

RVLB is sufficient (with the required level of public investment)
to fuel the Basin economy (with the notable exception of
livestock production, which remains a serious problem), then
aiming to achieve complementary development between the
natural resources sector and the rest of the economy is the least
risk route to economic development, will benefit both rural and
urban populations and will encourage regional identity.

12 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT
12.1 Introduction
The strategic environmental (and social) assessment (SEA) is a

tool to help formulate and evaluate policies, plans, and
programmes (PPP), through an iterative process of assessment
and subsequent modification to the plan. The SEA process is
akin to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), with certain
important differences. SEA is applied at the strategic level to
evaluate the environmental and social impacts of implementing
PPPs such as the RVLB Master Plan. It is also used to evaluate
the cumulative impacts of a large number of projects, and to
direct the location of development through an assessment of the
environmental and social opportunities and constraints of the
plan area. By contrast, EIA is applied to individual development
projects. SEA can streamline the EIA process, by identifying
suitable projects for different zones and determining the scope
of the EIA.
The draft EPA guidelines on strategic environmental and social

assessment set out the following steps in the SEA process.
 Step 1 – Identify the broad plan and programme alternatives

 Step 2 – Screening: to identify the over-arching purpose of
the plan and determine whether an SEA is required.
 Step 3 – Scoping: To identify the nature and extent of the
SEA.
 Step 4 – Situation assessment to: (i) prepare a resource
inventory of the social, economic, and bio-physical
resources. (ii) Identify sustainability objectives, criteria and
indicators, against which to monitor the success of the
Master Plan implementation. (iii) Identify the environmental
opportunities and constraints.
 Step 5 – Formulate sustainability parameters for
development of the plan. To prepare means by which to
guide the outcome of plan e.g. identify constraints to

development, require EIAs for certain types of projects, or
restrict certain types of development.
 Step 6 – Develop and assess alternative plans and
programmes. This is an iterative process, involving
assessment, modification of the plan, and further
assessment.
 Step 8 – Decision-making. The plan and the SEA need to be
documented and approved.
 Step 9 – Develop a plan for implementation, monitoring and
auditing. The implementation plan sets out the actions that
need to be taken for environmental management, monitoring
and auditing of the Master Plan. The implementation of the
plan should then be monitored and audited during the plan
period. The Regional Environmental Management Plan
required in the ToR for the RVLB Master Plan is understood
to refer to this implementation plan.
 Step 10 – Implementation. The plan and the environmental
management plan are implemented over the life of the plan.
In the case of the RVLB Master Plan; the duration is 25 years
from 2010 (Year 1) to 2035 (Year 25).
A Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) of the

Master Plan, together with a Regional Environmental
Management Plan, have been undertaken and are reported fully
in Annex D. This chapter summarises the results.
12.2 Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment
12.2.1 Sustainability Objectives, Environmental Constraints and

Opportunities
SEA has, as a core objective, to develop and promote
sustainable plans. The Ethiopian EPA draft SEA guidelines state:
The concept of sustainability relates to the maintenance and

enhancement of environmental, social and economic resources,
in order to meet the needs of current and future generations.
The three components of sustainability are:

 Environmental sustainability: the natural capital remains
intact i.e. the source and sink functions of the environment
should not be degraded.
 Social sustainability: the cohesion of society and its ability to
work towards common goals is maintained. Individual needs
such as health and well-being, nutrition, shelter, education
and cultural expression, should be met.
 Economic sustainability: occurs when development, which
moves towards social and environmental sustainability, is
economically and financially feasible.
Environmental and social sustainability objectives were

identified to reflect the above concepts of sustainability,
Ethiopian environmental and social policy, and the
environmental and social characteristics of the RVLB. The
following sustainability objectives were selected.
 Water Resources: Strive towards an over-riding objective in

favour of the sustainable use of surface and groundwater
resources in the RVLB.
 Land Degradation: Seek to stabilise and reverse the trend in
land degradation by promoting development which
incorporates appropriate mitigation and opportunities to
implement environmental enhancements through
programmes for forestation, protection of rangelands, soil
and water conservation, and the recuperation of degraded
irrigated lands.
 Biodiversity and Nature Conservation: Protect and conserve
sites of international and national nature conservation value
including National Parks, Wildlife Sanctuaries, and Wildlife
Reserves. Promote biodiversity through the protection of
habitats and species and seek to involve community
participation in biodiversity conservation programmes.
Introduce measures for effective management of Controlled
Hunting Areas.
 Environmental Pollution: Minimise environmental pollution
resulting from population and economic growth through the
expansion of urban and rural wastewater collection and
treatment systems, industrial wastewater treatment, solid
waste disposal, land contamination, and air emissions from
transport and from domestic, commercial and industrial
premises.

 Environmental and Public Health: Improve the conditions for
environmental and public health through concerted action to
break the cycle between people and disease vectors,
especially through improved water supply and sanitation
programmes; improve maternal health; and halt and start to
reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria and other major
diseases.
 Poverty Reduction: Seek to reduce the incidence of poverty,
food insecurity, and hunger season in the RVLB.
 Social Equity: Seek to provide access to secure water supply,
energy, education and health services to meet the needs for
everyone, including ethnic groups, women, socially
disadvantaged artisans and the disabled.
 Vulnerability to Climate Hazards: Reduce the vulnerability of
the population to climate hazards, mainly flooding, drought
and long term climate change.
During Phase 1, extensive studies were undertaken to evaluate

the baseline situation (Step 4 in the SEA). This included a
detailed diagnostic study of the environmental and social
situation in the RVLB (Phase 1 Report, Volume 7, Annex A).
Chapters 4 and 5 of this Master Plan summarise the main
constraints and opportunities for development in the RVLB. It is
clear from these studies that there are two fundamental
constraints to development in the RVLB:
 The carrying capacity of much of the existing cultivate land

is close to or at limits of supporting the rural population, due
to the subdivision of land to plots insufficient to provide for
the needs of the household.
 The water resources of the RVLB are limited and insufficient
to meet current demands without causing falling lake levels.
Further development of the water resources to meet rising
demands for drinking water, industrial use and irrigation will
exacerbate the lowering of lake levels. The hydrological
modelling recommended capping the expansion of irrigation
lands to 18,350ha to maintain lake levels within 10% of the
LTA. This leads on to the needs to (a) set limits on acceptable
environmental change on lake levels as a starting point, (b)
manage the water resources of the RVLB to meet prioritised
water uses while conserving the environment.

12.2.2 Development of the Master Plan
In the early stages of the development of the Master Plan, a
number of scenarios were identified that would be used as
building blocks to define the Development Strategies. These are
discussed in Section 6 and Annex C, and listed below.
 Scenarios exogenous to EROAM: population growth, food

demand, additional land available for expansion on farm and
off farm, woody biomass, macro economic environment and
micro economic environment
 Scenarios endogenous to EROAM: crop production, land
reform, new irrigation, TLU stocking density, TLU
productivity, fisheries, apiculture, electricity, water supply,
education, health, other construction, and public
administration
For each scenario, between one and four options were identified
indicating relative changes in growth or investment for that
scenario. For example, for population growth, three options,
median, low and high growth rates, were defined. An
environmental and social impact assessment of the options for
each scenario was undertaken and is reported in Annex D. The
feasibility of the options for each scenario, including social,
economic, and environmental considerations, was considered in
selecting the preferred option for each scenario to make up the
profile of the four Development Strategies.
The Economic Resources Optimisation and Allocation Model

(EROAM) was applied to the four Development Strategies and
the results compared. The most appropriate Development
Strategies for each of the eight Development Zones (DZ) and
through the duration of the Master Plan period were then
applied to form the Master Plan.
In order to assess alternatives for development, the SEA was

applied first to each of the four Development Strategies and
then to the Master Plan itself.
12.2.3 Assessment of the Development Strategies

The Development Strategies are defined in Table 6.1. Each one
was evaluated against the sustainability criteria based on the

output from EROAM and the baseline conditions in the Basin. It
was assumed that each strategy would be applied across the
whole of the RVLB. The magnitude and direction (beneficial or
adverse) of the impact was presented qualitatively using a seven
point scale from major adverse to major beneficial. An overview
of the relative environmental and social impacts is presented in
Table 12.1 and discussed in the following text.
Table ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT.61:

Comparison of development strategies with
sustainability criteria
Objectives Strateg Strategy Strateg Strategy
yA B yC D
Water Resources - -- -- ---

Land Degradation --- -- -- -
Biodiversity and Nature --- -- -- -
Conservation
Environmental Pollution --- -- - -
Environmental and Public + ++ +++ +++
Health
Poverty Reduction -- 0 ++ +++
Social Equity + ++ ++ +++
Vulnerability to Climate --- -- -- -
Hazards
Major adverse = - - - Major beneficial = +++
Moderate adverse = - - Moderate beneficial = ++
Minor adverse = - Minor beneficial = +
Not significant = 0 Not known = ?
All four Development Strategies adopted the same options for

the scenarios exogenic to the model, so the main differences
between the strategies are based on the scenarios endogenous
to the model.
Water Resources
The demand for water resources will be driven by the drinking
water requirements of a growing population, and to a lesser
extent by food processing, other industry, commerce/services,
construction and irrigation (which is capped). The total demand
for water, excluding hydropower, irrigation, and coffee
processing, is projected to increase from 82Mm 3/year in 2005 to

between 318 and 390Mm3/year by 2035 for the different
scenarios. All the Development Strategies will have adverse
impacts on the quantity and quality of water resources, which
are already overexploited. The impact will be greater for those
Strategies with higher water demands. (It should be noted that
all the Strategies require increased electrification and as some
of this is generated via hydropower outside the RVLB,
development in the Rift Valley will have implications for water
resources and aquatic habitats in other river Basins).
Land Degradation
Changes in land degradation will be brought about through
changes in land cover and how the land is used. All four
Development Strategies have the same options for food demand
(the main driver for land use change), the area of on farm S1/S2
land, the area of off farm S3 land, and woody biomass.
Consequently, the EROAM predicts very similar land cover
patterns by 2035. The main differences between the Strategies
come from (a) the predicted take up of soil and water
conservation (SWC) measures, which form part of the crop
productivity scenario, and (b) assumptions about TLU de-
stocking rates.
The risk of land degradation is highest under Development

Strategy A where SWC measures would be applied to an
estimated 91,200 ha or about 2.3% of the total cultivable land by
2035 coupled with 0% change in TLU de-stocking increase.
Under Development Strategy B, an additional 0.5 million ha
would be brought under SWC (representing about 13% of the
total cultivable land), so much of the cultivated land would still
not be managed well. De-stocking by 10% would provide some
alleviation in overgrazed areas. Development Strategy C
assumes an increase in SWC measures over 0.75 million ha
(about a fifth of the future cropped area), and a reduction of
livestock of about 15%. Finally, Development Strategy D
assumes an increase in SWC measures over 1.0 million ha or
about a quarter of the future area of cultivated land, and de-
stocking by 20% across the Basin.
It is assumed that none of the four Strategies would lead to the

degradation of irrigated lands, as (a) this is not generally a
problem in the RVLB, and (b) as the proposed new irrigation

land is capped at a low level, the most suitable land should be
chosen.
All the strategies are assumed to cause adverse land

degradation, due to the large conversion of natural habitats to
cultivated land and associated rise in soil erosion rates. Land
management improves from Development Strategy A to D, with
Strategy D providing the best combination of land management
and de-stocking to ameliorate land degradation.
Biodiversity and Nature Conservation

The overall biodiversity and nature conservation will be affected
by (a) the expansion of agricultural land at the expense of
natural ecosystems, (b) the failure to reduce livestock grazing
on natural pasture, (c) the rate of loss of woody biomass, which
will be partially offset from the expansion of on-farm woodlots
and plantations, (d) the deterioration of water resources which
will impact on the carrying capacity of aquatic habitats, and (e)
the rate of exploitation of the fisheries.
As described in the previous section, all four Strategies result in

very similar land cover changes. The Strategies also assume
moderate level losses of woody biomass, the same levels of
water demand, and fixed area of irrigation. The two main
variables affecting biodiversity and nature conservation are the
de-stocking rates, which are also described above, and the
fisheries.
Development Strategy A would lead to the collapse of fish stocks

in the Rift Valley Lakes, and other species linked in the food
chain, due to the absence of regulation and management of fish
stocks. It is projected that Development Strategies B-C would
see declining fish stocks over the next 5-10 years, as new
regulation and management regimes are implemented, followed
by recovery, potentially to above existing levels of fish stocks
(which are currently over-exploited).
All the Development Strategies would have significant adverse

impacts on biodiversity and nature conservation due to large
scale changes in land cover and limited reduction in TLU de-
stocking. In addition, Strategy A would result in a long term
worsening of the fish stocks.

Environmental Pollution
The main sources of environmental pollution are domestic
wastewater, domestic solid waste, industrial wastewaters, and
diffuse non-point pollution from agricultural land. The same
levels of rural and population growth, economic growth, and
industrial water demand have been assumed for the
Development Strategies. The water supply scenario assumes
increasing coverage of urban sanitation between Development
Strategies, with Strategy A achieving 50% coverage of urban
sanitation by 2035, Strategy B achieving 75% coverage, and
Strategy C and D achieving 100% coverage. Consequently, there
would be a significant reduction in environmental pollution from
wastewater discharges between the Strategies.
All the Development Strategies assume the same increases in on

farm and off farm areas, and new irrigation area. However, the
Strategies assume different rates of annual crop production and
land reform, which may have a bearing on diffuse non-point
pollution. The projected applications of DAP and Urea and SWC
increase from Strategy A to D, especially on subsistence and
smallholder lands. Strategies C and D also assume a change in
land tenure from subsistence farms to smallholders and
commercial farms, which would tend towards improved
management of these lands. While fertiliser inputs rise from
Strategies A to D, the increase in SWC and change in land
tenure could lead to better management of farm land, with
nutrients remaining on the field rather than being washed off.
All four Development Scenarios will result in increased

environmental pollution. Strategies C and D are assumed to
result in lower adverse impacts on the basis of greater
sanitation coverage in urban areas and better management of
farmland.
Environmental and Public Health

Environmental and Public Health would be largely influenced by
the increase in secure drinking water in urban and rural areas,
sanitation, increasing investment in the health sector, and
improved food demand to mitigate malnutrition. All four
Strategies adopt the same option for food demand increases, but
the level of investment in water supply and sanitation and the

health sector increases from Development Strategy A (low) to
Strategies C and D (high).
Poverty Reduction
Poverty indices have not been calculated within EROAM, but
information on regional gross domestic product (RGDP) and
employment by sector are estimated for the plan period. The
data show the shift in the importance of economic sectors, with
diversification away from natural resources and into services
(Development Strategy C) and industry (Development Strategy
D). Under Strategy A, the estimates for employment occupancy
would fall from about 71% (2005) to 47% (2035), due to the loss
of employment in the agricultural sector without a concomitant
increase in employment opportunities in services or industry.
Both Strategies C and D provide a marked improvement over
the base case with employment occupancy of about 95% by
2035. The improvement in employment conditions should help
to alleviate poverty in the RVLB.
The Gini coefficient is a measure of equality in the distribution

of wealth, where 0= perfectly equal distribution and 1=perfect
inequality. The estimates of coefficients for the strategies are
largely beneficial, indicating a slight shift towards a more equal
distribution of wealth, which is more marked for Strategies C
and D than A or B.
The above results indicate that Strategy A, which is to continue

much as at present, is unacceptable as it would lead to a
worsening of poverty levels among very high levels of
unemployed. Strategy B would be akin to treading water, with
similar levels of dis-occupancy and distribution of wealth to the
base case. Only Strategies C and D offer real potential to
improve upon the current economic conditions.
Social Equity
Social equity is considered in terms of access to basic needs
such as housing, safe water supply, health, education, etc. For
all indices, the lowest levels of investment occur for
Development Strategy A followed by Strategy B and Strategies
C and D together.
Vulnerability to Climate Hazards

The vulnerability of the population to climate hazards is
indicated by the numbers of people living in areas subject to
environmental hazards and the adequacy of coping mechanisms
at their disposal to overcome the damages and costs inflicted by
these events. The most common climate hazards are drought
and flooding, of which drought is the most likely to cause
widespread hardship. Households have a variety of coping
mechanisms to overcome hardship, such as selling stored grains
and pulses, selling livestock, assistance from relatives, taking on
non farm work, and migration. The poor and very poor have
limited coping mechanisms which are quickly exhausted.
Much of the central valley and southern lowlands lie in areas

with low and unreliable rainfall. Furthermore, to raise crop
production, all the Development Strategies require the
expansion of cultivation into about 1.5 million ha of new lands
lying largely in the southern part of the Basin; about half of this
land is classified as S3 in part due to poor reliability of rainfall.
In addition to short to medium term vagaries of the weather,

which may impact on discrete part of the Basin, long term
climate change imposes worsening conditions on agricultural
production across the whole Basin. The nature of climate
change is not clear in the RVLB, but a trend towards increasing
aridity would undermine the viability of dryland farming in
already marginal areas, and reduce the water resources
available for irrigation. The prospect of climate change
“squeezes” the benefits that will accrue from improved
agricultural production.
The impact of climate hazards themselves cannot be

ameliorated nor the consequences averted by relocating people
out of hazardous areas, given the chronic shortage of land. The
vulnerability to climate shocks has to be addressed through
economic growth so that both the government and the individual
can build up reserves to see them through periodic hardships.
Based on the economic summaries presented in the preceding
section, Development Strategy A results in the slowest rate of
improvement in RGDP and improvements in household income
and Strategies C and D provide most i.e. greater resilience to
periodic economic hardship.

Summary
Development Strategy A is a subsistence based development
strategy which will result in the expansion of agriculture, in
common with the other scenarios, but without the level of
investment needed to implement improvements such as SWC,
rural water supply and sanitation, education, health, etc.
Consequently, this strategy offers relatively low socioeconomic
benefits without any real brake on the environmental
degradation of the land, biodiversity and water resources.
Development Strategies B, C and D would also result in ongoing

environmental degradation, largely brought about by massive
conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land. This change
in land cover cannot be avoided, given the current and ongoing
population pressure. However, with increasing economic
development, more funds can be invested in environmental
protection and management, such as improved farm
management, the conservation of the remaining wildlife
habitats, wastewater treatment and solid waste management.
Development Strategies B, C and D also offer increasing social
and economic benefits, through the improvement in facilities
and services across the Basin.
12.2.4 Assessment of the Master Plan Development Strategy

The Development Strategies were applied to the Development
Zones for the Master Plan period. The impacts are shown on
Table 6.2 in Section 6 above. The EROAM was used to evaluate
the economic outcomes of the combined applications of differing
Strategies across DZ and time to from the Master Plan (see
Section 11). This section presents an assessment of the
environmental and social outcomes from the implementation of
the Master Plan. Table 12.2 presents a scoring of the Master
Plan against the sustainability criteria.
Table ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT.62:

Environmental and social impact assessment
of the Master Plan
Sustainability criteria Score
Water Resources --

Land Degradation ---
Biodiversity and Nature ---
Conservation
Environmental Pollution --
Environmental and Public ++
Health
Poverty Reduction ++
Social Equity +
Vulnerability to Climate Hazards ?
Major adverse = - - - Major beneficial = +++
Moderate adverse = - - Moderate beneficial = ++
Minor adverse = - Minor beneficial = +
Not significant = 0 Not known = ?
Water Resources
The water demand for the RVLB is projected to increase from
about 82Mm3 in 2005 to 390Mm3 in 2035, excluding water used
in hydropower, irrigation and coffee washing 12. The largest
increase in water is to meet drinking water demand; rising from
about 63Mm3 to 250Mm3. notwithstanding water consumption
will only rise from about 16 to 37 l/cap/day, which are very low
and indicates widespread dependence on secure but unpiped
supplies. Most of the water demand would occur in DZ4, which
is heavily populated and also the main coffee growing area in
the RVLB, followed by DZ3 and DZ6.
Irrigation development is assumed to be capped at an additional

18,350 ha, as this is estimated to be the sustainable limit of
future expansion. However, this increase alone would still have
an impact on water resources by lowering lake water levels by
10-15% of the long term average (LTA).
The response of all lakes in the RVLB to any increases in the use
of surface water resources to supply urban centres during the
Master Plan period is a decrease in lake levels. All lakes show a
decline in LTA lake levels, most show a smaller decrease than
that of proposed irrigation, and are all within their impact
thresholds as defined by a 10% fall in the LTA of the lake level;
the exception is Lake Shala where there is 0.6m decline in LTA
lake level, and by the end of year 2034 lake levels have
Hydropower will be generated outside the RVLB as there is no significant potential.
12
Water used in coffee washing is not an end use, but is a source of pollution.

decreased by 1.6m for urban development only. Lake Ziway
shows only a small decline in lake level not large enough to
significantly affect the value of 10% reduction of flow in River
Bulbula, hence would not affect lake levels in Lake Abiyata.
When the proposed irrigation is phased in with the future water

demands for urban area, lake level decrease more but not
significantly, and remain mostly within the impact threshold,
with the exception of Lake Shala and Lake Chamo which witness
large falls in water levels.
There are several other constraints to development, but the

main in the one in the RVLB is water. The impacts on lake levels
increases significantly when proposed irrigation is phased in
with the future water supplies required to meet the water
demands for development of the RVLB. Decisions will have to be
made about what is an acceptable loss of area of lakes in the
RVLB, and what level of environmental, economic, and social
impacts is acceptable, if any, when considering future irrigation
and development strategies in the RVLB. Water is already scarce
and irrigation a very large and inefficient user of water.
This assessment assumes that the Master Plan would have

moderate adverse effect on water resources. However, if
irrigation was expanded beyond the 18,350 ha recommended,
this would have potentially catastrophic impacts on the lakes in
the Rift Valley, particularly for Ziway, due to its shallow depth,
Lake Shala, Abiyata and Chamo as they are terminal lakes
heavily dependent on inflows.
Land Degradation
As mentioned previously, the EROAM predicts substantial
changes in land cover over the plan period. The amount of forest
and woodland is predicted to fall from about 19% to 5%, with a
concomitant increase in planted forestry and woodlots from 1 to
11%. The area of shrubland is predicted to decrease by over half
from 39% to 16% and the area of cultivated land is predicted to
rise from 30% to 55%.
The loss of forest, woodland and shrubland cover, and the large
expansion of agricultural land would be expected to lead to a
widespread increase in soil erosion rates, sediment transport

and downstream siltation, unless SWC measures are put in
place as part of an integrated programme of agricultural land
management. The Master Plan assumes that SWC measures
would only be required on about 250,000 ha on the steeper
slopes and more erosive soils.
The Master Plan assumes variable rates of de-stocking across

the DZs ranging from 80% in the heavily populated DZ4, to 85%
in DZs 1, 2, 3, and 6, and 90% in DZs 5, 7 and 8. De-stocking in
highland areas is already taking place due to land pressure for
so de-stocking to 85% and 80% seems feasible. However, in the
lowlands de-stocking by even 10% (to 90% of existing TLU
levels) may prove difficult over the plan period, given the
intimate relationship between nomadic peoples and their
livestock which provide the main livelihood as well as cultural
connotations of wealth and status.
Biodiversity and Nature Conservation

The change in land cover indicated above points to major
adverse impacts on natural habitats and biodiversity in the
RVLB. The combined area of forests, shrubland and grasslands
is predicted to fall from about 64% to 28%, largely due to the
expansion of agricultural land. This contraction of habitats will
in turn reduce the carrying capacity of the Basin for wildlife,
including large mammals and birds for which the Basin has been
important. The impact of development on water resources will
also largely determine the carrying capacity of the Rift Valley
lakes for birds and fisheries.
The EROAM does not provide any indication of the quality of the
habitats. Given the current poor environmental condition of
many of the existing designated ecological sites and the
enormous land pressure that is still to come, it is likely that the
Forest Reserves, National Parks and other designated sites will
be severely degraded if not lost without concerted action to
protect and enhance them.
The loss of natural habitats due to agricultural cannot be

mitigated on a like for like basis, as there is no replacement
land. However, there is a very strong case for enhancing the
ecological value of the remaining habitats through the
preservation of the best examples of habitats for wildlife,

expanding the network of designated sites and protecting
corridors between them.
The EROAM model predicts an expansion of land in planted

forestry to meet biomass demands. This increased area may
largely comprise on farm woodlots, boundaries, and small
plantations, with little ecological value, and as such would not
mitigate the loss of natural forests and woodlands.
The lakes and wetlands of the RVLB are under considerable

threat due to the large projected increase in water demands.
Lake Abiyata has lost much of its conservation value. The
hydrological modelling suggests that Lake Chamo is very
sensitive to changes in overflow form Lake Abaya. Lake Ziway,
the only freshwater lake in the RVLB, is also under threat. To
maintain the ecological value of these lakes requires robust
management of water abstractions and discharges.
The lakes are over-fished and production is falling; this trend is

exacerbated by falling lakes levels. Active management is
required to protect and enhance the fisheries and other wildlife,
such as fish eating birds.
Environmental Pollution
The main sources of environmental pollution are currently
domestic wastewater, domestic solid waste, industrial
wastewaters, and diffuse non-point pollution from agricultural
land.
The population is expected to increase to 23.4 million rural and

5.8 million urban by 2035. While rural sanitation does cause
environmental pollution, the main problem is likely to arise in
densely population urban areas due to the concentration of
wastewater to be disposed of. Population growth and
rural:urban migrations will see a number of towns in the RVLB
growing to 250,000 population and more.
At present domestic wastewater is mostly discharged to ground

via pit latrines in urban areas. The continuation of this practice
for a growing population may result in the contamination of
groundwater in urban areas where the aquifer is unconfined, as
indicated by the pathogen content, chloride, sodium, ammonia,

and nitrate, which would prejudice its use as a drinking water
source.
There are several large towns on the main rivers and lake
shores, such as Meki, Ziway, Awasa and Arba Minch. Untreated
wastewater discharges would pollute the waters, contribute to
eutrophication, reduce fisheries, and create a public health
hazard.
The Master Plan assumes moderate economic growth, with

industry characterised by small, labour intensive units,
dispersed through the DZs mainly in agro-processing. This
pattern of development is beneficial in providing employment in
small towns and rural areas. However, it causes problems in
environmental control, due to the costs involved in identifying,
inspecting, and monitoring wastewaters from a large number of
small units.
Agro-processing industrial wastewaters contain a range of

pollutants depending on the type of processes and products
used during manufacture. For example:
 Food and beverage industries discharge effluents with a high

organic load as measured by BOD-5 and COD, fats and
greases, and suspended sediments.
 Effluent from textile industries may have very high pH,
pesticide residues, organic solvents, dyes, moth proofing
agents and suspended solids.
 Effluent from abattoirs, tanning and leather finishing often
contain high BOD; oils, fats, and greases; suspended solids
including meat, bones, hair, feathers, skin and manure;
pathogens; and in the case of tanning and leather, heavy
metals and dyes.
 Effluent from pesticide formulation enterprises may include
high BOD and COD; nutrients nitrogen and phosphorous,
absorbable organic halogen compounds; phenols, heavy
metals, and suspended solids.
At present there are few industries in the RVLB and those that
do exist generally have no or inadequate pre-treatment on site.
To prevent widespread pollution of surface waters there needs
to be a step change in the control of industrial effluent,

involving both investment in on site pollution control and the
construction of sewer systems and wastewater treatment. These
measures require a strong environmental regulation and
enforcement system coupled with investment in new
infrastructure.
The Master Plan assumes that sanitation in urban areas will

reach about 50% between 2020 and 2025 depending on the DZ,
and reaching 100% coverage by 2035 in DZs 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6
and 75% coverage in DZs 5, 7, and 8. This implies ongoing and
increasing levels of contamination of surface waters for at least
the next 15 to 20 years, with investment in clean up in the later
phases of the Master Plan.
There is currently no wastewater collection and treatment in

Ethiopia, so the proposal to achieve 75 to 100% coverage in the
urban centres of the RVLB by 2035 may seem optimistic. The
main drivers for implementing wastewater collection and
treatment would be: expansion of water supply networks
resulting in the need to dispose safely of large volumes of water
piped into houses, pollution of surface water resources and
reduction in the risk of water-borne and sanitation diseases.
In designing the wastewater treatment works (WWTW), the

municipal authorities should consider environmental issues
regarding the reuse of wastewater in irrigation and the final
disposal of sewage sludges. Wastewater reused in irrigation has
to meet high quality standards; there also need to be strong
controls over the application of wastewater on crops. The
volume of sewage sludges arising will depend on the strength of
the sewage and the type of wastewater treatment. There are
various options for the final disposal of sewage sludges, such as
re-use on agricultural land, composting, landfill and
incineration. The preferred option will depend upon various
factors such as capital and running costs, available land, social
acceptability on re-use, and environmental regulation. Given the
lack of in-country experience in sanitation, and the potential
demands for design and management, there needs to be
considerable investment in human resources in the
environmental engineering sector.

With a growing population, rising income levels, and growing
industry, solid waste generation, collection and disposal will
become an environmental issue. At present, solid waste
collection and disposal is poorly managed or not managed at all.
Non-biodegradable litter, such as plastic bags and bottles, is
already unsightly on the outskirts of many towns near waste
disposal sites. The ROE model has not specifically included costs
for the disposal of domestic and industrial solid waste, although
it does include for increases in spending in regional government
administration which may include collection and disposal of
solid waste. The environmental management strategy would
need to promote cost-efficient, low technology measures to
encourage waste minimisation, re-use, recycling, composting (of
organic vegetable waste from food processing), and
development of by-products from manufacture.
Air pollution is not currently a problem and is not expected to

develop into a significant issue. The main sources of air
pollution over the Master Plan period are likely to be: traffic in
urban areas, smoke from domestic hearths in urban areas,
construction, quarrying / mining, and some industry.
Diffuse pollution from agricultural land is caused by the

entrainment of particulates and solutes in storm water runoff
and farm drainage. This process is an important contributor to
nutrients, especially nitrogen and phosphorous, in receiving
waters causing eutrophication, as well as suspended sediments,
salts and pesticides. The expansion and intensification of
agricultural land would be expected to lead to increased
concentrations of pollutants in farm runoff, mitigated through
controls on the application of fertilisers and pesticides,
integrated nutrient management and SWC measures.
Noise may be considered an ‘environmental pollution’ which

causes a nuisance for residents and pedestrians. Noise levels
increase with changes in land use from rural to suburban, urban
residential, urban industrial, highly trafficked roads and
construction sites. Noise levels also vary between day and night-
time. The Master Plan projects rapid increases in urbanisation
in the Basin, which is likely to increase the areas of land uses
with higher noise levels.

Environmental and Public Health
The Master Plan envisages variable rates of rural water supply
development and sanitation and a high level of service
improvement in public health.
Poor sanitation, coupled with insecure water supplies, is a

primary cause of water and sanitation-related diseases such as
diarrhoea, dysentery, and intestinal parasites. Over the last two
years there has been an outbreak of acute watery diarrhoea
(cholera) in the Shashemene area, which is caused by water
infected with Vibrio cholerae. The provision of safe drinking
water to most of the population, and improvement in sanitation
in urban areas would help to break the connection between
disease vectors and illness. Also the provision of drinking water
with low fluoride would reduce the incidence of fluorosis.
An important mechanism for controlling water and sanitation-

related diseases is through information, education and
communication, which helps to raise awareness of the causes of
illnesses, change people’s behaviour and break the connection
between people and the source of infection.
Malaria is endemic in the lowlands and exhibits seasonal

transmission rates during the wet season, and high rates of year
round transmission near permanent water bodies. It is worth
noting that EROAM envisages large rural:rural migrations from
density populated DZs 3 and 4 to sparsely population DZs 5 and
6 to expand agricultural land. The risk of contracting malaria is
already a contributory factor to labour shortages in the southern
lowlands. Consequently, to achieve the desired level of
agricultural expansion will also require considerable investment
in malarial control.
Malnutrition is common among the poor and those with

inadequate access to health services, education, clean water and
sanitation. Malnutrition is indicated by underweight, stunting
and wasting, and contributes to the severity of other illnesses.
The Master Plan would help to reduce the incidence of
malnutrition by raising food security and income levels.
Poverty Reduction

An assessment of the economic impact of the Master Plan is
provided in Chapter 11. This section summarises the main
findings in relation to the social and economic sustainability
criteria through the general economic performance, poverty
alleviation, the distribution of wealth, and food security.
The labour force is expected to increase from 7.3 million in 2005

to 16.4 million in 2035. This will be accompanied by a structural
shift in employment patterns away from employment in natural
resources to industry and services. EROAM predicts a reduction
in rural and urban labour dis-occupancy, particularly in rural
areas, due to the expected creation of jobs in rural non-natural
resources activities (particularly the rural small scale industry,
cottage industries and trade, hotels and restaurants sectors).
The generation of employment would help to reduce poverty in
the RVLB.
The regional GDP (RGDP) for the RVLB was estimated to be

about ETB 10 million in 2005 and with the implementation of
the RVLB Master Plan may achieve growth in the Basin economy
to ETB (2005) 35.5 billion by 2035. The projected growth rate of
the economy is adequate at between 3% and 4% per annum, but
given that the population is expected to more than double in the
period, the growth in RGDP per capita is more modest at only
between 1% and 2% per annum.
The rate of increase in agricultural production is sufficient both

to maintain and to improve the basic level of food security in the
Basin, and to provide raw materials for the expected increase in
food processing which will underpin industrial growth. The
latter is vital to drive industrial development (especially in rural
areas) to take up the large numbers of dis-occupancy which
would otherwise occur. Without increasing food demand and
agricultural production, industrial development would remain at
very low levels. The performance of the RVLB livestock sector
remains relatively flat due to de-stocking and low improvement
in productivity. The expected large increase in food demand for
livestock products (particularly meat) would have to be met by
either a massive import bill for livestock raw materials or, more
likely, unsatisfied demand coupled with a brake on development
in the livestock processing sector. This will have a knock-on
effect of slowing the projected growth of the RGDP. The forestry

sector is expected to become self-sufficient in the production of
woody biomass, particularly due to the expansion of agricultural
land into marginal areas most suitable for trees production. The
fisheries and apiculture sectors will continue to have tiny
contributions to RGDP. Growth in other important sectors,
especially water and electricity supply, health, education and
construction, is easily stimulated by public investment.
The Gini coefficient was calculated by DZ and overall based on

the EROAM and ROE out-turns of value added and employment
for the Master Plan (see Chapter 11). The results show that the
Gini coefficient declines in all DZs, indicating more equitable
distribution of the wealth in the DZ over time between the
population groups considered in the calculation.
EROAM was used to predict the food security status of the

Basin. Over time, food demand increases with the increasing
population and the expected change in diet associated with
rising incomes. More importantly in the second half of the
Master Plan, food demand is estimated to be less than
production, indicating a surplus in production. However, in the
short and medium term total demand is more than production,
indicating potentially unsatisfied rural demand. The projected
rural food energy demand is always equal to or slightly exceeds
production, but the balance tends to improve over time. This is
an encouraging result, but given the likelihood of bad years of
production due to drought and the relatively high rate of
incremental crop production assumed in the Master Plan
strategy, the rural food security situation must be considered
vulnerable, at least in the short and medium term.
Based on the EROAM, the food deficit DZs are 4, 5, 7 and 8,

while the food surplus DZ are 1, 2, 3, and 6. Only DZ 4 and 5
remain in deficit throughout the planning period, though the
status of DZ 4 does tend to improve. All other DZs reach the end
of the planning period comfortably food secure. An estimated
38% of the Basin rural population live in food insecure DZs at
the beginning of the planning period (of which 66% are in DZ 4)
and 27% live in the food insecure DZ at the end of the planning
period.

Intra-Basin trade is highly significant to alleviate Basin-level
food security. While net external trade is small, the EROAM out-
turns suggest that about 22% of food energy consumed in the
Basin is traded between DZs. This percentage falls during the
planning period to about 12% as food security of DZ improves.
Nevertheless the total volume traded does increase, by about
25% (150,000 tons grain equivalent), which has implications for
necessary improvements in roads, markets and storage.
Social Equity
Social equity in terms of access to basic needs would improve
under the Master Plan, with improvements being more rapid in
urban areas than rural, and in the wealthier DZs compared with
the poorer DZs.
Vulnerability to Climate Hazards

Implementation of the Master Plan should improve the capacity
of the population to cope with climate shocks through economic
growth, increased food security, growth of other areas of
employment and improvements in household income.
Notwithstanding, it would be dangerous to be complacent about
the economic benefits predicted by EROAM in overcoming the
environmental and socioeconomic shocks caused by climatic
hazards.
As already mentioned, the improvement in food demand, which

is the main driver for the economy, depends on the expansion of
agriculture, half of which is grade S3 land where rainfall
variability is an important constraint on the suitability of the
land for agriculture; tsetse fly infection could seriously limit
subsistence and smallholder farming due to the inability to keep
cattle for draft, and malaria is endemic. Ironically, a major plank
of development of the Master Plan involves migrating farmers
who have no or insufficient land into marginal lands where crop
production will fail periodically due to insufficient rainfall.
While the proportion of the economy dependent on natural

resources will decline, the numbers of people employed in that
sector will increase from 4.19 to 6.2 million between 2005 and
2035. Furthermore, the loss of crops and livestock will not only
affect farmers directly, but will also impact indirectly on

industry which is founded on agro-processing, so that prolonged
drought could have far-reaching consequences on the
sustainability of the industrial as well as the natural resources
economy.
The consequences of climate change on regional development

and economic growth are not clear. The EROAM and ROE
models have not taken climate change into account, although
the effect of increasing aridity on the water resources has been
evaluated by hydrological modelling. Certainly wealthier
societies would be more resilient to food shortages and rising
prices, but it appears that implementation of the Master Plan
may not improve the wealth of the Basin sufficiently to offset
and indeed increase the resilience of the population to the
consequences of climatic shocks.
12.2.5 Assessment of the Priority Projects

During Phase 1, 106 priority projects were identified. Table 12.3
provides a brief overview of the type of project, the DZ in which
it would occur, the magnitude and direction of the potential
environmental and social impacts associated with each project,
and the requirement for an EIA.
Many of the proposed projects are concerned with capacity

building, monitoring, research and development, education and
training and are therefore unlikely to give rise directly to
significant adverse or beneficial impacts. However, in the longer
term, many of these projects would provide environmental and
social improvements through better management.
Of the 106 projects identified, some 41 are likely to require at

least an Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) and
Environmental Impact Assessment. These are:
 infrastructure projects (water supply, irrigation, fisheries

infrastructure and upgrading roads)
 prospecting for minerals (diatomite and gold)
 projects likely to result in large scale land use change
(watershed management, industrial forests, peri-urban
plantations and bio-diesel)

 intensive agricultural and agro-processing projects likely to
give rise to large volumes of waste (intensive poultry
development, dairy centres and slaughterhouses)
 management or development programmes located in
environmentally sensitive areas (management plan for the
ASLNP and geothermal development), and
 Industrial projects affecting large areas or which have waste
issues (solar energy, industrial centres, fully services
workplaces and industrial export zones, facilities to
manufacture spare parts).

Table ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT.63:Review of project profiles
CB= Capacity Building MT=Monitoring/Testing RDT=Research Development & Technology
ET=Education and Training ID=Infrastructure development ELU=Environment & Land Use Management
Code Name Executing Type of Project Environme Socia EIA

agency project location/area ntal impact l required
CB DZ Comment impa
ct
HM/CB/0 Improvement of hydrometric MoWR CB, MT All 0 0 No
1 network and monitoring
HM/CB/0 Improvement of hydrometric data MoWR CB All 0 0 No
2 management capacity
HM/CB/0 Improvement of meteorological NMSA CB, MT All 0 0 No
3 network and monitoring
HM/CB/0 Improvement of meteorological data NMSA CB All 0 0 No
4 management capacity
GW/CB/0 Development of groundwater Regional CB All 0 0 No
1 inventory, database and monitoring Water
network Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Identification, delineation and Regional CB All Selected 0 0 No
2 implementation of sustainable Water weredas
RWSS and Sources Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Boditi Town water Water CB, ID 3 Boditi Town - ++ No
3 supply Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Dila Town water Water CB, ID 4 Dila Town - ++ Yes
4 supply Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Meki Town water Water CB, ID 2 Meki Town - ++ No
5 supply Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Fiseha Genet Town Water CB, ID 4 Fiseha Genet - ++ No
6 water supply Bureaux Town
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Teltele Town water Water CB, ID 8 Teltele Town - ++ No
7 supply Bureaux
GW/WS/0 Improvements to Sodo Town water Water CB, ID 3 Sodo Town - ++ Yes
8 supply Bureaux
GW/IR/09 Sile groundwater irrigation project SNNPRS CB, MT, 6 Sile River - + Yes

CB DZ Comment impa
Water RDT ct
Bureaux
GW/IR/10 Groundwater irrigation in north RDT, ET 2 Meki river / 0 0 Yes
Lake Ziway Lake Ziway
IR/DR/01 Lower Weito River Irrigation MoWR CB, ET, 8 Expansion by --- + Yes
Expansion ID 3000 ha
IR/DR/02 Bezo irrigation project (Upper MoWR CB, ET, 6 New 3500 ha. -- + Yes
Weito) ID High
efficiency
pressurised
system
IR/HE/03 Upper Segen irrigation and MoWR CB, ET, New 3500 ha. -- + Yes
hydropower multi-purpose ID HEP facility
IR/HE/04 Lower Segen irrigation and MoWR CB, ET, 8 New 6,000 ha. --- ++ Yes
hydropower multi-purpose ID HEP facility
IR/GW/05 Sile River irrigation rehabilitation, MoWR CB, ET, 6 New 2,500 ha. - ++ Yes
expansion and multi-purpose project ID
IR/WG/06 Sego River irrigation rehabilitation, MoWR CB, ET, 6 New 3,000 ha - ++ Yes
expansion and multi-purpose project ID
IR/DR/07 Amessa-Bongie irrigation MoWR CB, ET, 3 New 1000 ha - + Yes
rehabilitation and expansion project ID +
rehabilitation
IR/DR/08 Iyanda Gato irrigation development MoWR CB, ET, 6 New 2000 ha. - + Yes
project ID + pressurised
systems
IR/DR/09 Iyanda Faro irrigation development MoWR CB, ET, 6 New 3,000 ha - + Yes
project ID
IR/HE/10 Lower Meki irrigation development MoWR CB, ET, 2 New 1000- - + Yes
(with hydropower) ID 2000 ha
IR/DR/11 Katar River Dam and small/medium MoWR RDT 1, 2 Katar 0 0 No

CB DZ Comment impa
scale irrigation development catchment ct
IR/LM/12 Study and programme to upgrade Regional RDT, ET Multi c70 small 0 0 No
traditional irrigation schemes Water traditional
Bureaux schemes
IR/LM/13 Study and programme to Regional RDT, ET Multi 60-70 modern 0 0 No
rehabilitate existing small / medium Water irrigation
scale irrigation Bureaux schemes
WS/WR/0 Water supply for Yerga Alem Town SNNPRS WRB ID 4 Yerga Alem - ++ Yes
1 and environs town. 83,000
beneficiaries
WS/PH/0 Urban sanitation and wastewater Regional WRB ET, ID Multi Selected + + No
2 disposal & HB weredas
WS/WR/0 Water supply for Hossaina Town and SNNPRS WRB ID 3 Hossaina - ++ Yes
3 environs Town. 105,347
beneficiaries
WS/WR/0 Water supply for Adami Tulu and Oromiya WRB ID 2 Adami Tulu - + Yes
4 rural environs of Ziway Town town. 33,185
beneficiaries
WS/GW/0 Water supply for Yirga Chefe Town SNNPRS WRB ID 4 Yirga Chefe - + Yes
5 Town
20,216
beneficiaries
WS/GW/0 Water supply for Konso (Karat) SNNPRS WRB ID 6 Konso Town - + No
6 Town 18,356
beneficiaries
WS/CB/0 Maintenance supply stores for water Regional WRB ID Multi RVLB 0 0 No
7 supply and sanitation
WR/CB/0 Assessment of multi-sectoral MoWR RDT 2 Lakes Ziway- 0 0 No
1 development through conjunctive Langano-
use of the northern lakes Abiyata
catchments
MR/ID/01 Development of diatomite deposits MoME ID 2 Adami Tulu, --- -/+ Yes
Chefe Jila,

CB DZ Comment impa
Lake Abiyata, ct
and
Gademotta.
Open cast
mining.
MR/ID/02 Epithermal gold prospecting Geological RDT 4, 5 Northern - 0 Yes
Survey ET shores of Lake
Abaya
WM/SC/0 Sustainable livelihoods MoARD CB, ELU 2, 3, 5,500 km2 in 0 +++ Yes
1 enhancement through integrated 4 the Bilate
watershed development in Bilate River sub-
Sub-Basin Basin.
Population c
2.5M
WM/SC/0 Integrated watershed development MoARD CB, ELU 2, 3 Population 0 ++ Yes
2 of Western Lake Ziway sub-Basin c300,000
WM/SC/0 Promotion and dissemination of MoARD and ET Multi Selected 0 0 No
3 Konso SWC practices Regional ARD wereda
WM/SC/0 Integrated Watershed Development MoARD CB, ELU 6 Population Yes
4 of Burji-Amaro c200,000
AG/ID/01 Promotion of export horticultural Regional ARD RDT, ET 1, 3, Moist 0 + No
crops 4 highland areas
of central Rift
Valley. 500 ha
in first years
up to 6,065 ha
AG/ID/02 Improved seed production and Regional ARD ET Multi Highland and 0 + No
distribution lowland cereal
mixed farming
areas.
AG/ID/03 Promotion and production of MoI, MoARD, ET 1, 3, Arsi Zone, - + No
industrial crops EARO 6, 7 Gamo Gofa
Zone, South

CB DZ Comment impa
Omo, Wolayita ct
Zone
AG/ID/04 Expansion of tomato and red pepper Regional ARD, ET 1, 2, Lake Ziway, - + No
production for industry EARO Gurage mid-
highlands,
Alaba Special
Wereda
AG/CB/05 Adoption of yield enhancing Regional ARD, RDT, ET Multi Surplus - + No
agricultural inputs EARO wereda
AG/ID/06 Development and production of Regional ARD, RDT Multi Lowlands and - + No
citrus and other tropical fruits EARO enset based
mixed farming
areas
AG/ID/07 Sugarcane production for cottage Regional ARD, RDT, ET Multi Surplus 0 + No
industry EARO wereda
AG/IR/08 Water harvesting for improvement Regional ARD, RDT Multi High - + No
of small scale agriculture Regional ID population
density,
drought risk
areas, with
water
harvesting
potential
AG/ID/09 Establishment of enset planting SNNPRS RDT 4 Enset growing 0 + No
materials, multiplications and BoARD weredas in
distribution sites SNNPRS
AG/ID/10 Improvement of crop marketing Regional CB, RDT Multi RVLB 0 + No
systems bureaux
AG/ID/11 Promotion and dissemination of Regional ARD RDT Multi RVLB - + No
integrated pest management
technologies
LS/WM/0 Rangeland rehabilitation and MoARD, ET 8 Lowland + + No
1 development Regional ARD weredas –

CB DZ Comment impa
Teltele and ct
Yabello
LS/CB/02 Livestock feed development MoARD, ET Multi Highland and + + No
Regional ARD mid-land
weredas for
dairy
LS/ID/03 Poultry development and MoARD, ET, ID Multi Poultry raising - + Yes
establishment of brooding centres Regional ARD areas.
Creation of
brooding
centres
LS/ID/04 Establishment of livestock markets MoARD, ET, ID Multi Areas where 0 + No
and resting places Regional ARD markets are a
constraint
LS/CB/05 Improvement and establishment of MoARD, CB, ET, Multi Creation and 0 + No
animal health posts Regional ARD ID equipping of
AHPs
LS/CB/06 Development and strengthening of MoARD, ET, ID Multi Highland and - + Yes
dairy multiplication centres Regional ARD mid-land
areas. New
dairy centres
LS/ID/07 Establishment of new MoARD, ID Multi Major zonal - + Yes
slaughterhouses Regional ARD and wereda
towns
LS/ID/08 Promotion and development of dairy MoARD, ET Multi Mid-land and 0 + No
goat raising Regional ARD lowland areas
LS/CB/09 Fattening programme for beef and MoARD, ET Multi Target areas 0 + No
mutton Regional ARD
FS/CB/01 Lakes Abaya and Chamo Fisheries Regional RDT, ET 3, 6 Lakes Abaya 0 + No
Development States and Chamo
FS/ID/02 Infrastructure development of shore Federal and RDT, ET, 2, 3, Lakes Ziway, 0 + Yes
facilities regional ID 4, 5, Langano,
government 6 Awasa, Abaya

CB DZ Comment impa
and Chamo ct
FS/CB/03 Improving existing and establishing MoARD CB, ET, 2, 4 New institute 0 + No
new fisheries research centres Regional ARD ID at Awasa and
strengthen
Ziway
research
institute
FS/CB/04 Improved management of the RVLB Federal and CB, ET 2, 3, RVLB lakes 0 + No
fisheries regional 4, 5,
government 6
FS/CB/05 Establishment of aquaculture Regional ARD ET, ID N/A A new 0 + No
development institute institute
LM/FS/01 Aquatic biodiversity monitoring and Universities MT Multi Lakes, rivers 0 0 No
management strategy and wetlands
in the RVLB
LM/WQ/0 Bio-monitoring for river and lake Universities MT 2, 3, Rivers and 0 0 No
2 environmental assessment 4, 5, lakes in the
6 RVLB
FO/ID/01 Industrial forestry development and Various ELU 3, 4, Arba Minch, + + Yes
establishment of forest industries 5 Dila, Burji and
Butajira
FO/WM/0 Protection, management and Forestry ELU 2, 3, High forests 0 0 No
2 conservation of natural forests and 4, 5, and
woodlands 8 woodlands
FO/EN/03 Peri-urban plantation development Various ELU Multi Major urban + + Yes
centres.
Plantations
50-400 ha
FO/AG/04 Agro-forestry, farm forestry and Regional ARD ELU Multi RVLB + + No
community forestry conservation
FO/ID/05 Production and marketing of Private ELU 4, 5, Southern + + No
aromatic gum resins enterprise 6 lowland RVLB
AP/CB/01 Capacity building in apiculture Regional ARD ET Multi Weredas with 0 + No

CB DZ Comment impa
extension potential for ct
apiculture.
15,000 farmer
beneficiaries
AP/GE/02 Empowering rural women through Regional ET Multi High poverty 0 + No
apiculture development Offices weredas
WL/TO/01 Rehabilitation of Abiyata-Shala ASLNP ELU 2 West Arsi + + Yes
Lakes national park Zone, Oromiya
RS
GE/EN/01 Expansion of the Aluto-Langano EEPCE with ID 2 New plant. 2 + 0 IEE
geothermal plant capacity GSE phase
expansion to
30MW
GE/EN/02 Exploration and pilot plant for GSE with ID 2 Pilot plant for + 0 IEE
Corbetti geothermal development EEPCO 5 MW
expanding to
15 MW
GE/EN/03 Exploration for geothermal GSE with ID 3, 4 Pilot plant for + 0 IEE
development for Abaya EEPCO 5 MW
expanding to
15 MW
EN/FO/01 Extension of the programme to Regional RDT Multi RVLB ++ + No
promote energy efficient wood energy
stoves agencies /
EREDPC
EN/FO/02 Promotion of efficient charcoal EREDPC RDT, ET 2 Sites in East ++ + No
production technologies Shewa and
Arsi Zones
EN/ES/03 Solar energy for domestic and social Regional RDT Multi Rural RVLB + + Yes
services energy
agencies
EN/ES/04 Study for a wind power park in EEPCO RDT 1 Bekoji, Arsi + + Yes
Bekoji Zone, Oromiya

CB DZ Comment impa
EN/AG/05 Land suitability assessment for bio- Regional RDT Multi RVLB ? ? ct Yes
diesel production mines and lowlands
energy
agencies
SE/SA/01 Identifying & strengthening Federal / CB, ET Multi RVLB 0 ++ No
indigenous inter-ethnic conflict regional state
resolution mechanisms councils
SE/GE/02 Raising awareness for gender Regional ET Multi RVLB 0 ++ No
mainstreaming women’s
affairs
bureaux
SE/GE/03 Economic empowerment through Regional ET Multi RVLB 0 ++ No
small scale trade and skills training women’s
affairs
bureaux
PS/SI/01 Upgrading dry weather roads to all EPA ID Multi Target 700 km -- ++ Yes
weather roads of road
PS/SI/02 Upgrading gravel roads to asphalt EPA ID Multi 6 road -- ++ Yes
roads corridors
SI/PS/03 School construction to improve MoE ID Multi Construction 0 +++ No
attendance of schools
ID/CB/01 Development of centres for Zonal Offices RDT, ID 1, 3, Awasa, Arba - 0 Yes
industrial research 4, 6 Minch,
Hossaina,
Asela
ID/CB/02 Industrial networking project Zonal Offices / CB Multi Asela, Arba 0 0 No
MSE Depts Minch, Awasa,
Dila, Hosaina,
Shashamene,
Wolayta,
Ziway
ID/CB/03 Improvement of human resources in Zonal Offices ET Multi Asela, Arba 0 0 No
industry Minch, Awasa,

CB DZ Comment impa
Dila, Hosaina, ct
Shashamene,
Wolayta,
Ziway
ID/CB/04 Fully serviced work places & export Zonal Offices ID Multi Asela, Arba -- + Yes
processing zones Minch, Awasa,
Dila, Hosaina,
Shashamene,
Wolayta,
Ziway
ID/CB/05 Facility for production of industrial Zonal Offices RDT, ID Multi Asela, Arba - + Yes
spare parts and enhanced Minch, Awasa,
maintenance Dila, Hosaina,
Shashamene,
Wolayta,
Ziway
ID/CB/06 Renovation of existing natural Public RDT 4 Awasa 0 + No
resource based industries enterprises
agency
TO/CB/01 Establishment of Tourist Regional CB, ID Multi Ziway, 0 0 No
Information Centres Tourism Shashamene,
Bureaux Asela, Awasa
and Arba
Minch
CB/WR/0 Development of the RVLB River MoWR + CB Multi RVLB 0 0 No
1 Basin Organisation Regional
Water
Bureaux
CB/WR/0 Developing the Master Plan MoWR CB Multi RVLB 0 0 No
2 knowledge base for MoWR
CB/AG/03 Capacity building of farmer training MoARD ET, ID Multi All weredas 0 + No
centres
PH/ES/01 Prevention and control of vector and MoH, MT, ET Multi Middle and ? + No

CB DZ Comment impa
water borne diseases Regional HB lower rift ct
valley
PH/CB/02 Development and capacity building MoH CB, ID Multi Middle and - + No
of health services lower rift
valley
PH/CB/03 Strengthening of family planning MoH ET Multi RVLB 0 + No
services
PH/CB/04 Prevention and control of childhood MoH CB Multi RVLB weredas 0 + No
diseases and nutritional deficiencies
WQ/WS/0 Assessment of fluoride treatment MoWR RDT Multi Selected 0 0 No
1 schemes MoH towns
WQ/CB/0 Institutional strengthening in water MoWR; CB Multi Oromiya and 0 0 No
2 quality monitoring Regional SNNPRS
Water
Bureaux

12.3 Regional Environmental Management Plan
12.3.1 Objectives
The objectives of this Regional Environmental Management Plan
(EMP) are to set out the measures needed to control and
monitor the potential adverse environmental and social impacts
that may arise during the implementation of the master plan.
This Regional Environmental Management Plan has been

prepared as a first draft for discussion with stakeholders. The
recommendations in this Regional EMP are based on the studies
of the consultants and consultations and meetings undertaken
with stakeholders. As such, this Regional EMP is not intended to
reflect the views of stakeholders and indeed the proposals made
in this Regional EMP need to be reviewed, discussed and
evaluated by key stakeholders involved in development and
environmental protection in the RVLB.
12.3.2 Institutional Arrangements

The government of Ethiopia is based on a decentralised
structure, with a federal and a regional government which is
subdivided into four-tiers: the regional state government, Zonal
Offices, weredas and kebeles.
Under the River Basin Councils and Authorities Proclamation

No. 534/2007, the MoWR can create river basin authorities to
manage water resources within the most appropriate
geomorphological unit – the river basin.
The Master Plan presents a multi-sectoral plan for economic

development within the RVLB. While the water resources
component would usefully be implemented through the creation
of a RVLB RBO, the other sectors of the Master Plan lie within
the remit of the regional states. As the RVLB crosses two
regional states, Oromiya and SNNPRS, these two regional states
need to find a mechanism for cooperating in the implementation
and monitoring of the Master Plan.
As the regional states remain the principal focus of planning and

implementing multisectoral development, it is assumed that
they will take responsibility for implementing the Master Plan,

with the MoWR, the BoWR and newly created RVLB RBO
providing inputs to the water resources component. Within this
over-arching framework, the federal Environmental Protection
Authority (EPA) and the Regional Environmental Agencies
(REAs) have a role in monitoring the success of the
implementation of the Master Plan against environmental
sustainability criteria.
12.3.3 Environmental Legislation

EIA Proclamation No. 299/2002 has been undermined by the
Investment Proclamation No. 375/2003, which has opened a
loophole whereby private investors can obtain land leases
without going through the formal EIA process. It is
recommended that the Investment Proclamation be amended to
incorporate the EIA process into the land leasing procedures.
The review, approval and any environmental conditions on the
land lease should be undertaken by the EPA or the REA, as
appropriate given the size, nature, and location of the
development proposal.
12.3.4 Capacity Building of the Institutions

(i) MoWR
Under the Establishment of Environmental Protection Organs
Proclamation No. 295/2002, Ministries which promote
development projects likely to have adverse environmental
effects are permitted to create EIA units within their
institutions. The MoWR has set up two main EIA units, one in
dams and hydropower and the other in irrigation and drainage.
However, by doing this, the EIA capability of the MoWR is
diluted. Furthermore, the EIA units are understaffed and under-
resourced. The following recommendations are made to improve
the EIA capability of the MoWR.
 Re-organise EIA capability into a single department, on an

equal footing with the other main technical departments
within the Ministry (dams and hydropower, irrigation, water
supply etc). This EIA department would provide EIA services
to the whole Ministry for all of their development projects.
The role of the EIA department would be to manage
contracting out of EIA and project monitoring services to
specialist consultants. The EIA department should be led by

a Departmental Head with knowledge of the EIA process,
contracts, and management of sub-consultants. The
department should include specialists with core disciplines
relevant to water projects and be able to call upon the
services of other specialists within the MoWR. An annual
budget needs to be prepared for the EIA department to be
commensurate with their role and responsibilities.
 Environmental Management Training. A training programme
should be prepared for the newly created EIA Department to
cover both management and technical issues. It is
recommended that the training programme is developed by
international consultants with extensive experience in water
management and environmental protection.
 Awareness Raising. The EIA Unit needs to mainstream the
EIA process in the water sector, both within the MoWR and
also within regional government, the private sector, NGOs
and the public. This can be done through the following types
of activities:
 Workshops with key stakeholders
 Stakeholder consultation
 Pro-active research on water management and
environmental protection and dissemination of results
through various media
 Improve the public consultation process on major
schemes
(ii) EPA
The federal EPA is an independent organisation accountable
directly to the Office of the Prime Minister. However, the EPA is
a relatively weak agency within the federal government
structure, with weak linkages horizontally with other federal
government bodies and vertically with regional government. As
a result, the Federal EPA is largely by-passed with regards to
the implementation of the EIA process and industrial pollution
control. The status and authority of the EPA needs to be
heightened and strengthened, so that the EPA can play a more
active role in environmental regulation. The following types of
activities are recommended:
 The EPA has already prepared a comprehensive series of
guidelines on EIA and industrial pollution control.
Notwithstanding, the following actions are recommended.

 Guidances which have the status of ‘draft’ should be
approved.
 The SEA guidance is relatively new and not implemented.
The EPA should commission some pilot SEAs to
demonstrate how this tool can usefully be applied.
Suitable topics are: development of the bio-fuel sector,
agricultural development and the use of pesticides, and
fisheries management.
 New sectoral EIA guidelines should be prepared for
emerging markets, such as bio-fuels and geothermal
development.
 Guidance on the control of construction companies and
construction-related impacts.
 Raising the profile of the Federal EPA among federal and
regional government.
 Review of EIAs. The EPA suffers from a shortage of technical
specialists to review EIAs and monitor the implementation of
large projects. In the short term the EPA could contract out
assignments to environmental consultants, but in the long
term the EPA needs to build up its staffing capability.
 The budget allocation to the EPA is not commensurate with
the running costs of the Authority (Damtie and Bayou, 2008)
and this situation needs to be remedied.
(iii)REA
REAs tend to be weak, under-staffed and under-resourced. The
REAs are frequently by-passed in the scoping and review of EIAs
for projects which may have significant impacts on the
environment by both the private and the public sector. The REAs
lack equipment for environmental monitoring and rely on
laboratory services provided by other organisations. The REAs
tend to be more involved in industrial pollution control and their
capability in this subject should be strengthened. The following
actions are recommended.
 Environmental training needs to be strengthened in the

areas of the EIA process and industrial pollution control,
focussing on those types of developments which are to be
promoted under the Master Plan.
 Profile Raising. In SNNPRS, it is recommended that the
Environmental Department within the Land Administration

and Land Use Bureaux is set up as an independent office
with its own budget within the next 10 years.
 Formalise industrial pollution control and environmental
quality monitoring. The industrial pollution control function
of the REAs needs to be strengthened by (i) developing an
inventory of potentially polluting enterprises within the
region, (ii) identifying the most polluting industries, (iii)
developing an industrial wastewater advisory and
monitoring programme, (iv) developing capability in
environmental monitoring, and (v) developing a professional
programme for Pollution Control Inspectors.
(iv) Awareness Raising and Education

There is a widespread lack of awareness about the beneficial
and adverse impacts of development on people and the
environment. Coupled with a significant shortage of
professionals to fill existing posts in EIA and Pollution Control
there is a long term need to bring environmental issues into
mainstream education to sensitise the general public about
these issues and encourage individuals to enter the
environmental professions. The programme needs to be long
term, to improve the educational standards of the up and
coming generation of children, and extend from primary,
secondary and tertiary education.
12.3.5 Regional Environmental Management Action Plan

Regional action plans have been prepared for each Development
Zone (DZ) based on the characteristics of the zone and the
proposed scheduling of Development Strategies for the Master
Plan for:
 Agricultural development
 Water resource development
 Conservation of natural resources
 Economic diversification
 Public infrastructure and services
Descriptions of the zonal development plans are presented in

the Master Plan, Chapter 8. Table 12.4 identifies key activities
required for environmental management based on the
Development Plans for each DZ. This list is not exhaustive, but

gives an indication of the main actions required across the
RVLB.

Table ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT.64: Regional environmental action
plan
Developme DZ7&
Key environmental actions DZ1 DZ2 DZ3 DZ4 DZ5 DZ6
nt plans 8
Agricultural 1) Agricultural intensification and       
Developmen diversification
t 2) De-stocking cattle and protect rangelands       
3) Prepare a catchment management plan   
(W. Ziway and Awasa) to improve rural
livelihoods, including SWC
4) Identify and prioritise development of    
most suitable land for agricultural expansion
5) Identify best habitats to be protected and   
wildlife corridors between them
6) Review scope for organic labelling  
schemes for export products, e.g. coffee,
honey
Water 1) Improve efficiency of small scale    
Resource irrigation.
Developmen 2) Water resources management programme   
t to protect lakes and wetlands
3) Promote water harvesting and 
conservation
4) Groundwater exploitation and protection 
programmes
Conservatio 1) Promote SWC measures.  
n of Natural 2) Update Munesa-Shashemene Forest 
Resources Management Plan.
3) Prepare Forest Management Plans for     
existing and proposed Forest Priority Areas

Developme DZ7&
nt plans 8
4) Seek measures to conserve other forestry    
and woodland resources
5) Promote a sustainable forestry labelling    
scheme
6) Promote expansion of community      
woodlots, farm forestry, peri-urban
plantations and private industrial plantations
7) Promote efficient stoves       
8) Promote renewable energy schemes and      
electrification
9) Prepare environmental management plans    
and undertake pro-active management of
NPs, Wildlife Reserve, Wildlife Sanctuaries,
and CHAs
10) Improve regulation and management of    
lake fisheries
11) Harvest and market NFTP e.g. gums and 
resins
12) Malaria and tsetse fly control  
programmes
Economic 1) Initiate an industrial pollution control     
Diversificati inventory and programme.
on 2) Develop EIA capability
a) agro-processing      
b) poultry, meat and milk processing      
c) abattoirs and slaughterhouses     
d) timber mills and forestry based industries    
e) water abstraction for drinking water       
f) sewerage and wastewater treatment       

Developme DZ7&
nt plans 8
g) fully serviced workplaces / new     
industrial / export zones
h) wind farm 
i) irrigation development   
j) developments in sensitive areas e.g. 
National Parks
k) expansion of Abiyata Soda Ash plant 
l) upgrading rural roads     
m) geothermal pilot plants 
n) mining diatomite deposits 
o) gold prospecting 
Public Research low cost waste management /    
Infrastructu pollution control strategies.
re and Develop tourism 
Services Involve universities and research centre in   
environmental research and training
programmes

12.3.6 Monitoring the Implementation of the Master Plan
The implementation of the Master Plan should be monitored
periodically against the environmental objectives and targets.
Table 12.5 sets out the environmental objectives, the
environmental target, indicators to be monitored, the frequency
of monitoring and responsible organisation.
The monitoring programme should be selected in the first place

using information that is currently being routinely collected.
This approach minimises the additional costs of monitoring in
the early years. As investment in environmental monitoring
develops, such as a water quality monitoring in the rivers and
lakes, the environmental monitoring programme can be
expanded.
The implementation of the Master Plan should be reviewed

periodically, to evaluate how well the plan is performing against
targets, identify new or unexpected environmental and social
impacts, and consider modifications to the plan. The plan should
be revised for example, to reflect changes in policy objectives
and legislation, unexpected growth patterns and developments,
and the realisation of unwanted adverse environmental and
social impacts.
It is recommended that the EPA and the REAs take a lead role in
this review process. The REAs should take responsibility for
collating the data collected by various organisations indicated in
Table 12.5, and use this data to prepare annual reports. Every
five years, the EPA and REAs should participate in the formal
review process described above and prepare a report on the
achievement of the Plan to meet the environmental objectives.
This report would present a review of the environmental
indicators and targets, a commentary on the ‘state of the
environment’, the identification of environmental and social
problems that have arisen during the previous plan period and
recommendations on how these should be addressed. These
recommendations should feed into modifications to the Master
Plan. The five-yearly reports should be widely circulated,
including federal and regional government, the general public,
private investors, and NGOs.

At the project level, environmental and social monitoring should
be undertaken by the developer, or their consultants, while the
REAs and the EPAs have a legal mandate to monitor the
implementation of the project to ensure that the monitoring
programmes presented in the EIA are undertaken. The EPA has
produced a range of guidance on EIA, including mitigation and
the preparation of EMPs for a range of development types and
there is no need to repeat this advice here. The EPA is best
placed to advise the developer on the type of monitoring
required for their project.
As described earlier, the EPA is under-resourced and cannot

fulfil its legal mandate. Government spending on public
administration needs to increase across the board, as indicated
in the Master Plan.

Table ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT.65: Environmental and social
monitoring of the Master Plan
Objective Target Indicators to be Frequency Responsibi
monitored lity
Sustainable use of Maintain mean annual lake - Lake water levels - Monthly MoWR,
water resources levels within 1m of the LTA BoWR
Maintain at least existing - Physico-chemical water - Quarterly in MoWR
water quality standards in quality indicators selected BoWR
lakes and river water quality
stations
Control and improve water - Physico-chemical water - Annual REA
quality in rivers, lakes, and quality indicators
groundwaters affected by
domestic and industrial
pollution
Stabilise and Adoption of SWC measures - Areas of SWC (ha/yr) - Annual BoARD
reverse the trend in for all cultivated areas
land degradation
Reduce the rate of growth of - Area of degraded land - Five yearly BoARD
degraded land (ha)
Reduce the rate of - % population using - Annual
exploitation of woody biomass sources of energy
biomass for energy
Conservation of Maintain the biodiversity in - Area of designated sites - Annual MoARD /
biodiversity and all designated areas: (ha) - Five yearly BoARD
nature conservation National Parks, Forest - Land cover in designated assessment of
value Reserves, Wildlife Reserves, sites using satellite land cover
and Controlled Hunting imagery and ground
Areas truthing
- Flora and fauna surveys - Five yearly EWNHS
Maintain the value of - Bird life – species and - Annual bird EWNHS
wetlands for bird life numbers counts NGOs

monitored lity
Sustainable yield of fisheries - Number of persons - Annual BoARD
in the lakes employed statistics
- Size of catch tons/yr
- Mesh sizes
Minimise Optimum use of fertiliser for - Fertiliser use tons/ha - Annual BoARD
environmental the soil conditions and crop - Pesticide use monitoring of - MoWR
pollution Avoid eutrophication in - Total N and P in surface agro-
water bodies waters within EPA chemicals
standards - Annual
- Pesticide levels in surface water quality
waters programme
Improve Under 5 child mortality rates - Deaths per 1,000 Annual CSA
environmental and Maternal mortality rate - Deaths per 100,000
public health Access to primary care - % population
Health workers - % per population
Incidence of diseases: Number of cases of Annual BoH, CSA,
Malaria, Schistosomiasis, morbidity and mortality regional
AWD, Intestinal parasites, presented at health Health
HIV/AIDs centres Bureaux,
Reduce poverty Poverty incidence - % population below the Annual CSA
Food security poverty line
- % population food
insecure
- food production per
capita
- % urban/rural
unemployment
Seek social equity Distribution of wealth - Gini coefficient Annual Regional
Economics
Bureaux

monitored lity
Social conflicts - Number of reported Annual Regional
incidents of social conflict government
s
Access to safe potable water - Coverage Annual Regional
supply government
s
Reduce Reduce dependence of food - Distribution of food aid – Annual DDPP
vulnerability of aid tons/yr
people in the RVLB - Numbers of HH receiving
to climate hazards food aid – HH/yr
Reduce vulnerability of - No. of deaths per flood Annual DDPP
people to flood hazards - Cost of flood-related
damages

REFERENCES
Bartel, P., and Muller, J., 2007. Horn of Africa Natural Hazard
Probability and Risk Analysis. Humanitarian Information Unit,
US Dept of State.
Damtie M., and Bayou M., 2008. Overview of environmental

impact assessment in Ethiopia. Gaps and Challenges. 67pp.
EVDSA/WAPCOS, 1990. Preliminary Water Resources

Development Master Plan for Ethiopia, Volume VII, Annexure J,
Hydropower Report.
FAO (1976). Soil bulletin No. 32. A Framework for Land

Evaluation.
FAO (1983). Soil bulletin No. 52. Guidelines: Land Evaluation for
Rainfed Agriculture.
FAO (1985). Soil bulletin No. 55. Guidelines: Land Evaluation for
Irrigation.
Gilbert, Stevenson, Girardet and Stren, 1996
Meridl Y., Hegazy, M., Mekete, G., and Teklemariuam F., 2001.
Intestinal helminthic infection among children at Lake Awassa
Area, South Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Health Development,
2001(1), 15, p31-38.
Roma, B., and Worku, F., 1997. Magnitude of Schistosoma

mansoni and intestinal helminthic infections among school
children in Wondogenet Zuria, Southern Ethiopia. Ethiopian
Journal of Health Development, 11, p125-129.

APPENDICES
APPENDIX A
Output from Economic Models

Table A.1: Projected employment by sector: Master Plan: all DZ
Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Natural Resources
2,679, 2,647, 2,752, 3,242, 3,760,3 4,285,6 4,637,2
Crops 222 032 809 958 04 56 34
1,405, 1,393, 1,389, 1,366, 1,334,8 1,311,4 1,198,0
Livestock 135 459 567 215 79 60 96
Fishing and Crocodiles 2,948 1,776 1,778 2,328 4,411 5,887 7,332
Beekeeping 13,809 13,809 13,809 13,809 24,002 31,885 33,384
113,16 131,11 223,61
Forestry 89,637 0 6 9 266,974 292,625 322,971
Large and Medium Scale

Industry 8,094 8,687 8,935 11,225 14,653 19,837 37,089
Urban Small Scale Industry 4,747 6,035 6,722 15,254 31,110 59,244 176,271
106,63
Urban Cottage Industry 82,714 87,865 89,882 7 129,822 162,969 266,260
Rural Small Scale 121,45 1,506,7
Industry 12,789 28,282 35,746 5 267,756 516,275 70
226,20 339,89 379,98 683,50 1,264,2 1,737,5
Rural Cottage Industry 2 9 3 6 972,349 03 73
128,17 126,25 128,61 126,09
Coffee Processing 2 9 0 9 131,854 137,396 115,778
Urban Electricity 1,100 1,542 1,708 2,726 5,207 7,191 12,475
Rural Electricity 0 24 100 217 503 711 1,116
Urban Water Supply
Protected 5,000 6,137 7,005 10,460 13,162 15,828 22,521
Unprotected 2,085 2,002 1,383 259 0 0 0
Rural Water Supply
Improved 0 0 0 2,987 5,725 7,266 11,015
Protected 23,694 27,943 29,449 33,879 46,390 59,339 88,199
Unimproved 39,693 39,649 39,544 40,193 31,269 24,418 5,738
Construction
New urban houses 10,308 16,850 17,115 22,863 36,027 44,204 63,458
New rural houses 39,520 41,443 41,508 62,658 63,444 60,630 58,420
Other construction 15,979 17,638 18,208 22,976 27,596 32,583 44,132
Urban Tourism, Trade 127,81 192,82 217,26 422,40 1,878,7
Hotels and Restaurants 3 3 1 9 665,639 981,465 47
Rural Tourism, Trade 188,56 292,40 330,96 650,47 1,011,4 1,459,0 2,629,4
Hotels and Restaurants 3 7 4 6 73 74 59
Transport and 125,00 126,88 127,51 131,39
Communication 0 4 9 3 134,710 138,112 145,175
Financial Intermediation 5,000 5,788 6,078 8,144 10,395 13,266 21,610
Real Estate and
Ownership of Dwellings
Public Administration 15,000 16,193 16,592 20,017 23,151 26,315 33,006
Education services 26,565 33,893 36,436 52,866 68,304 85,644 127,630
Health services 2,934 4,028 4,393 6,581 8,405 10,228 13,875
Community, Social and
Personal Services
Urban 33,943 38,272 39,971 48,274 57,785 68,377 87,291
Rural 13,471 14,355 14,676 16,825 18,739 20,621 23,852
Private households with
Employed Persons
1
Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Urban 15,406 17,370 18,142 21,910 26,227 31,034 39,619
Rural 2,447 2,608 2,666 3,056 3,404 3,746 4,333
Number of persons
estimated to be employed
356,68 455,12 489,83 772,60 1,117,4 1,558,1 2,823,9
Urban 7 3 1 1 82 85 84
799,55 1,039, 1,130, 1,872, 2,687,6 3,691,7 6,327,4
Rural non NR sector 0 753 766 744 17 90 29
4,190, 4,169, 4,289, 4,848, 5,390,5 5,927,5 6,199,0
Rural NR sector 750 237 080 930 69 13 17
721,07 811,97 811,70 1,054, 1,466,6 1,942,3 3,061,6

Total urban labour force 2 4 1 755 67 79 67
6,563, 6,830, 6,720, 7,858, 9,455,5 10,950, 13,344,
Total rural labour force 837 031 725 584 31 093 158
7,284, 7,642, 7,532, 8,913, 10,922, 12,892, 16,405,
Total 909 005 426 339 198 472 825
Urban occupancy 49% 56% 60% 73% 76% 80% 92%
Rural occupancy 76% 76% 81% 86% 85% 88% 94%
Overall occupancy 73% 74% 78% 84% 84% 87% 94%
2
Table A.2: Projected return to labour by sector: Master Plan: All DZ
Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Natural Resources
Crops 1,538 1,671 1,770 1,850 1,857 1,944 2,086
Livestock 1,406 1,464 1,489 1,517 1,656 1,685 2,070
Beekeeping 1,910 1,910 1,910 3,959 2,835 2,156 2,089
Forestry 3,624 3,445 3,412 3,507 3,523 3,515 3,492
Large & Medium Scale
Industry 20,039 20,707 20,263 21,364 21,146 21,146 22,226
Urban Small Scale Industry 5,418 5,587 5,475 5,754 5,698 5,698 5,972
Urban Cottage Industry 1,050 1,086 1,062 1,122 1,110 1,110 1,168
Rural Small Scale
Industry 1,000 1,026 1,009 1,053 1,044 1,044 1,087
Rural Cottage Industry 415 425 419 436 432 432 449
Coffee Processing 464 471 466 478 477 479 511
Urban Electricity 36,229 32,219 31,632 32,159 31,722 31,443 31,951
Rural Electricity 0 0 0 51,105 48,688 49,129 50,376
Urban Water Supply
Protected 20,500 21,127 21,341 22,667 23,835 25,064 27,714
Unprotected 833 833 833 0 0 0 0
Rural Water Supply
Improved 0 0 0 18,980 18,980 18,980 18,980
Protected 805 805 805 805 805 805 805
Unimproved 833 833 833 833 833 833 0
Construction
New urban houses 7,483 7,980 8,136 8,978 9,577 10,102 10,979
New rural houses 7,483 7,539 7,558 7,670 7,761 7,852 8,028
Other construction 7,327 7,260 7,237 7,103 6,990 6,876 6,649
Urban Tourism, Trade
Hotels and Restaurants
Rural Tourism, Trade
Hotels and Restaurants 1,717 1,884 1,773 2,049 1,994 1,994 2,264
Transport and
Communication 736 833 769 929 897 897 1,054
Financial Intermediation 4,990 5,367 5,411 6,447 7,191 7,922 9,568
Real Estate and
Ownership of Dwellings 24,064 27,774 23,424 30,047 25,170 22,274 24,309
Public Administration
Education services 202 202 202 202 202 202 202
Health services 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Personal Services 22,481 23,248 23,509 25,142 26,588 28,118 31,446
Urban 11,628 11,913 12,010 12,608 13,128 13,670 14,822
Rural 18,703 19,147 19,298 20,226 21,033 21,872 23,653
Private households with
Employed Persons
Urban 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156
Rural 544 544 544 544 544 544 544
Average return to labour

(ETB per worker) 1,223 1,355 1,548 1,853 1,834 1,834 2,028
3
Table A.3: Regional Gross Domestic Product by Sector: Master Plan: All
DZ
Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Natural Resources
Net value of Domestic
and Export Production
4,121, 4,422,0 4,872,0 6,000,3 6,981,4 8,252,6 9,671,4
Crops 556 02 51 70 88 23 81
1,975, 2,040,3 2,069,5 2,072,2 2,210,2 2,209,3 2,479,8
Livestock 300 01 59 84 53 06 58
Apiculture 26,379 26,379 26,379 54,665 68,048 68,747 69,728
324,88 1,028,4 1,127,9
Forestry 1 389,820 447,358 784,228 940,518 72 49
1/
Government support to
sector: extension, SWC 1,184,4
etc 0 0 0 732,765 619,837 619,837 75
- - - - -
Value of net natural 1,143, 1,201,2 - - 1,146,5 1,649,7 3,692,7
resource imports 900 84 986,790 896,557 98 12 37
Large & Medium Scale 162,18

Industry 7 179,879 181,046 239,808 309,853 419,474 824,330
Urban Small Scale 1,052,7
Industry 25,717 33,720 36,801 87,767 177,278 337,601 11
Urban Cottage Industry 86,825 95,416 95,440 119,607 144,075 180,861 311,094
Rural Small Scale 1,637,5
Industry 12,789 29,031 36,064 127,841 279,518 538,954 10
Rural Cottage Industry 93,900 144,608 159,051 297,747 420,291 546,443 780,081
Coffee Processing 59,413 59,413 59,925 60,250 62,906 65,800 59,154
Urban Electricity
Tariff charges 39,852 49,686 54,022 87,660 165,192 226,096 398,582
Incremental generation
and connection costs 0 38,662 121,652 35,651 62,699 61,288 57,873
Rural Electricity
Tariff charges 0 1,238 4,905 11,064 24,486 34,935 56,220
Incremental generation
and connection costs 0 10,717 58,332 33,372 96,826 126,510 121,929
Urban Water Supply
102,49
Protected 9 129,651 149,502 237,109 313,709 396,716 624,130
Unprotected 1,737 1,668 1,152 215 0 0 0
Rural Water Supply
Improved 0 0 0 56,700 108,654 137,914 209,071
Protected 19,067 22,486 23,698 27,263 37,331 47,751 70,976
Unimproved 33,062 33,025 32,938 33,478 26,046 20,339 4,780
Construction

Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
New urban houses 77,128 134,469 139,245 205,254 345,031 446,559 696,686
295,70
New rural houses 9 312,453 313,727 480,585 492,420 476,042 468,984
117,07
Other construction 2 128,045 131,778 163,186 192,884 224,052 293,443
Road construction and
rehabilitation 0 0 189,993 189,993 189,993 140,831 87,211
Urban water supply 0 38,433 166,578 46,682 3,116 0 0
Urban sanitation 0 0 0 145,961 175,154 175,154 116,769
Rural water supply
(including piped
schemes) 0 30,887 32,841 136,905 188,781 131,655 147,735
New primary, secondary
and tertiary schools 0 6,361 34,565 40,945 28,038 28,548 39,078
New hospitals and clinics 0 104,021 13,467 19,374 79,357 29,835 31,156
Urban Tourism, Trade 219,51 1,327,3 1,957,0 4,253,0
Hotels and Restaurants 1 363,320 385,271 865,311 02 66 45
Rural Tourism, Trade 138,84 1,309,1 2,771,9
Hotels and Restaurants 7 243,685 254,462 604,267 907,553 67 56
Transport and 623,79 1,094,0 1,388,9
Communication 8 680,999 690,014 847,056 968,675 81 75
Financial 120,32
Intermediation 1 160,757 142,363 244,716 261,629 295,500 525,308
Real Estate and
Ownership of Dwellings
269,53 1,088,7
Urban properties 7 312,553 326,892 432,065 561,048 709,500 23
215,75
Rural properties 0 230,064 234,836 277,647 313,491 347,482 411,997
337,20 1,037,8
Public Administration 8 376,444 390,072 503,256 615,540 739,912 95
Education services
308,89 1,170,7 1,891,7
Service provision 0 403,776 437,599 666,506 896,704 68 79
Training of primary,
secondary and tertiary
teachers 0 9,681 30,581 39,326 34,998 40,497 60,904
Training of additional
health workers 0 26,187 2,961 4,270 18,399 6,661 6,971
Training of additional
public administration
officials 0 12,863 12,811 19,496 22,335 23,935 34,787
Health services 54,882 77,134 84,778 133,109 176,773 223,710 328,179
Personal Services
118,15
Urban 9 135,237 141,949 176,643 216,783 262,995 352,916

Sector 2005 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2035
Rural 9,715 10,508 10,797 12,754 14,563 16,430 19,977
Private households
with Employed Persons
Urban 17,812 20,084 20,975 25,333 30,323 35,881 45,807
Rural 1,331 1,419 1,450 1,663 1,852 2,038 2,357
RGDP net of 8,911, 10,352, 11,659 16,520, 20,033, 23,650, 33,266,

agricultural imports 866 024 ,358 644 439 109 745
Growth rate of RGDP, %
pa 5.4% 12.6% 6.9% 4.3% 3.6% 4.1%
RGDP per capita 656 709 780 923 974 1,018 1,156
Growth rate of economy,
% per capita pa 2.7% 10.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.4%
1/ The value added of public sector investment is taken as the MOFED discount rate of
100 per cent
Public investment requirements are shown in red

Table A.4: Development indicators and targets: Master Plan
Basin Economy and development Targets achieved during Master Plan
sectors period
Initial Short Medium Long term
(2005- term term (2026-
2009) (2010- (2016- 2035)
2015) 2025)
Economic Growth
Annual RGDP Growth (% pa in period) 7.2% 6.9% 3.9% 4.1%
Economic Diversification 1/
Natural Resources sector as % of total 60% 51% 47% 36%
Industry sector as % of total 5% 5% 7% 13%
Utilities, communications and construction 15% 16% 16% 13%
as % of total
Health, education and public administration 8% 8% 9% 9%
as % of total
Services sector as % of total 13% 15% 18% 26%
Labour force
% employed in natural resources 55% 54% 48% 38%
% employed in industry 8% 12% 15% 23%
% employed in utilities, communications and 4% 4% 3% 3%
construction
% employed in health, education and public 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1%
administration
% population employed in services 8% 13% 18% 29%
Poverty and Food Security Indicators

Gini coefficient for RVLB 0.855 0.868
Proportion of kcal requirement met by 92% 98% 104% 103%
production in zone
% occupancy of urban labour 57% 73% 78% 92%
% occupancy of rural labour 77% 86% 87% 94%
% overall occupancy 75% 84% 85% 94%
Development Sectors
Water Resources
Hydro-power installed capacity
On farm irrigation (ha) 30,099 31,476 34,016 36,369
Planned irrigation implemented (ha) 0 0 7,219 10,063
Access to potable water supply (% urban 77% 98% 100% 100%
population)
Access to potable water supply (% rural 42% 51% 71% 95.3%
population)
Access to potable water supply (% total 45% 56% 75% 96.1%

sectors period
(2005- term term (2026-
2009) (2010- (2016- 2035)
2015) 2025)
population)
Crops, Livestock, Fisheries, Apiculture

and Forestry
Sector growth 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.6%
Crops
Sub-sector growth 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 1.7%
Food crop production (tons) 4,170,702 5,831,734 8,004,208 11,510,505
Food crop area (ha) 1,741,193 1,897,230 2,163,739 2,357,746
Food crop yield, tons/ha 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.9
Food crop net exports from the zone (tons) -514,077 -8,018 811,195 1,371,476
Livestock
TLU 7,468,988 7,324,943 7,098,606 6,403,518
Dry matter tons per TLU 2.76 2.84 2.99 3.34
m kcals produced per TLU 0.090 0.092 0.102 0.127
Livestock products net exports (m kcals) -1,227,283 -4,023,327 -6,357,472 -10,364,858
Fisheries and Crocodiles
Sub-sector growth -10.4% 5.6% 12.9% 2.5%
Fisheries total production (tons) 4,604 6,150 14,048 20,160
Fisheries net exports, tons 3,058 4,177 11,450 16,233
Apiculture
Honey total production, tons 2,867 5,943 7,435 7,580
Honey net exports, tons 1,167 3,351 3,367 0
Forestry
Forest and woodland area, km2 8,853 4,020
Area of fuel lots and plantations, ha 356,959 796,567 934,728 956,106
Net exports of woody biomass, tons -6,958,733 534,620 1,233,818 -369,104
Industry, Tourism, Utilities,

Communications, Construction and
Services
% of RGDP 33% 37% 42% 51%
Sector growth 11.1% 8.3% 6.1% 7.5%
Employment (number of persons fully 1,393,595 2,475,160 4,308,009 8,835,838
employed)
large and medium industry as % of sector 5% 4% 4% 4%
RGDP
small industry as % of sector RGDP 3% 4% 7% 15%
cottage industry, as % of sector RGDP 6% 7% 7% 6%

sectors period
(2005- term term (2026-
2009) (2010- (2016- 2035)
2015) 2025)
construction, as % of sector RGDP 21% 22% 18% 10%
urban services, as % of sector RGDP 18% 21% 23% 27%
rural services, as % of sector RGDP 7% 10% 12% 15%
Economic Infrastructure
Access to electricity, % of urban population 48% 60% 88% 100%
Access to electricity, % of rural population 1% 3% 6% 9%
Access to electricity, % of total population 6% 9% 18% 26%
Health, Education and Public

Administration
Enrolment rate 58% 58% 70% 80%
Student:teacher ratio 70 65 60 51
Number of teachers employed 34,529 52,866 76,974 127,630
Hospitals required within the period 17 28 39 58
Clinics required within the period 644 1,029 1,456 2,169
Health workers employed within the period 4,120 6,581 9,316 13,875
Hospitals per 1,000 people 0.0010 0.0013 0.0016 0.0020
Clinics per 1,000 people 0.0383 0.0476 0.0580 0.0754
Health workers per 1,000 people 0.2448 0.3047 0.3713 0.4822
Public Sector Investment, annual costs

in 2005 ETB '000
Urban and rural water supply investment 101,844 183,587 161,776 147,735
Urban sanitation investment 0 145,961 175,154 116,769
Electrification: new generation, transmission 82,030 69,022 173,662 179,802
and connection
Roads rehabilitation and construction 47,498 189,993 165,412 87,211
New primary, secondary and tertiary schools 13,412 40,945 28,293 39,078
New hospitals and clinics 81,382 19,374 54,596 31,156
Tertiary training (health, education & 48,136 63,092 73,412 102,662
administration)
Agricultural extension and support and SWC 0 732,765 619,837 1,184,475
1/
Sub-sector grouping:
Natural Resources: Crops, Livestock, Fishing, Apiculture and Forestry
Industry: Urban large and medium, Urban and Rural Small Scale, Cottage, Coffee
processing
Utilities, communications and construction: Urban and Rural Electricity, Water Supply and
Sanitation, Construction, Transport and Communications
Health, education and public administration
Services: Financial Intermediation, Real Estate and Ownership of Dwellings, Urban and Rural
Trade Hotels and Restaurants, Community Social and Personal Services, Households with

sectors period
(2005- term term (2026-
2009) (2010- (2016- 2035)
2015) 2025)
Employed Persons


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