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The idea is to focus European effort towards space logistics in GEO orbit, where
more than 300€Billions CAPEX (mainly private) has been invested during 30 years.
1 GEO : Geostationary Earth Orbit, single and unique from laws of physics, from 3 coordinated locations it is
possible to permanently cover Earth surface.
2 MegaBus: very large satellite where the support platform (the Bus) is common to a large set of upgradable
payloads from diverse competitors, like a common pile for antennas from diverse cellular phones operators.
3 LEO : Low Earth Orbit, there is infinity of plans and altitudes of low Earth orbits, at least 20 coordinated
locations on 20 coordinated plans (i.e. 400 satellites) are needed to permanently cover Earth surface.
4 MEO : Medium Earth Orbit, same infinity than LEOs.
GEO will remain forever a unique and privileged place above Earth, in
particular for data relay, while GEO is not currently under scrutiny by the other
spacefaring states which are primarily focused on Moon, Mars or LEO.
Manufacturing and in-space servicing makes more sense in GEO belt, as no
orbital plane changes are necessary (contrary to LEO) to populate the orbital slots after
having manufactured and assembled satellites at the GEOfarm. GEO is considered a
better5 Space Logistic node than LEO, in particular to support expansion of space
economy.
GEO allows easy step towards further locations, starting around and on the
Moon, since its high energetic orbit is favourable w.r.t. LEO to support a cis-Lunar
outpost, thus benefitting operations.
European GEOfarm will be a hub driving high yearly rate of European transportation
services, initially with monthly missions foreseen: a figure that will increase over time.
An estimation of the potential market segments would need to be performed, but
tentatively a minimum of 2 deployment and replenishment flights per year using Orbital
Transfer Vehicles (OTV) and freight could be required for addressing the batch of
services, including set-up of the new GEOsats capacity compared to an overall GEO
accessible market which was around 22 satellites per year, now dropping down.
On the long term, to have full Earth coverage, a minimum of 3 MegaBus stations would
lead to an average of at least 6 deployment and replenishment flights per year and on top
of that at least 2 manned flights (3 astronauts per spaceship) per year on the long term
could be envisioned as well.
In turn, European GEOfarm would be instrumental to the development of manned
flights, and re-boost access to GEO.
Europe already leads GEO telecom satellites market, and European
GEOfarm would secure this strategic positioning, at the same time
expanding the capabilities and diversification of activities from space.
5Transportation cost to GEO is 2 times more than to LEO then cutting mass by 4, thanks to in orbit
assembly, generates more savings, while 1kg in GEO generates several times more revenues than in LEO.
The business plan is based on the hypothesis that the top of value chain is
funded by telecom operators and private internet service providers,
supported by public entities for some sovereign services. Assumption is that in such
conditions more than 2% of total global telecom business continues to transit through
GEO, and that European GEOfarm and its MegaBus and DataCenters, 10 years after start
of operation, captures 25% of those 2 to 5%, that is to say 5 to 10€Billions/year in 2035.
Estimated project cost up to commercialisation is 15€Billions, including deployment and
replenishment flights at 100€Millions each, where 8€Billions for GEOfarm orbital items,
1€Billion for 3 MegaBus, 1€Billion for 1 dataCenter, 1€Billion for reusable OTVs,
1€Billion for cargo SpacePlane, additional 2€Billions for crew SpacePlane and 1€Billion
for other human spaceflight capabilities.
Estimated global recurring cost is 2€Billions/year.
In worst case of 25% capture of “by space” 2% of global intercommunication, the
estimated break-even is reached in 2033 and estimated ROI is 13 years.
Nevertheless, even in such worst case, as revenues start in 2025 the negative cash flow
remains below 2€Billions which eases dramatically the financing plan.
In addition, the European GEOfarm concept goes with a full ecosystem in
which the value chain allows each brick to generate its own value and
revenues, and where it is strategic to secure European opportunities for its
actors (public or private).
Private economic operators from France and Italy are already on-board, setting up their
business cases based on a private funding scheme, and there is room for all major actors
within the European space framework.
The roadmap for European GEOfarm will have to take roadmaps for SpaceRider,
Cygnus, Orion-ESM, SpaceTug into account. What is currently missing is related to
reusability.
For the second step of GEOfarm development related to human activities and permanent
presence, some blocks need delta activities to reach man-rated operations:
i.e Ariane family shall be qualified for human spaceflight,
Man-rated re-entry system shall be completed.
Plus, some works needs to be done to develop a European spacesuit and radiation
shielding.
This could give new momentum to European roadmaps for geopolitical
independence of its robotic and human spaceflight activities.
The European GEOfarm concept benefits from several studies performed in Europe
(Hermes, IXV, SpaceRider, Cygnus and other non-disclosed) or publicly advertised
concepts (SpaceTug, GeoHub, FISO, SpiderFab, Kineis …).