Landslide risk assessment

E. M. Lee and D. K. C. Jones

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 Published by Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd, 1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD.
URL: http://www.thomastelford.com

Distributors for Thomas Telford books are

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First published 2004

Also available from Thomas Telford Books

Investigation and management of soft rock cliffs. E M Lee and A R Clark. ISBN 07277 2985 3
Landslides in research, theory and practice. Edited by E Bromhead, N Dixon and M Ibsen. ISBN 07277 2872 5
Coastal Defence — ICE design and practice guide. ISBN 07277 3005 3

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 0 7277 3171 8

# Thomas Telford Limited 2004

All rights, including translation, reserved. Except as permitted by the Copyright, Designs and Patents
Act 1988, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior
written permission of the Publishing Director, Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd,
1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD.

This book is published on the understanding that the authors are solely responsible for the statements
made and opinions expressed in it and that its publication does not necessarily imply that such
statements and/or opinions are or reflect the views or opinions of the publishers. While every effort has
been made to ensure that the statements made and the opinions expressed in this publication provide
a safe and accurate guide, no liability or responsibility can be accepted in this respect by the authors or
publishers.

Typeset by Academic + Technical, Bristol

Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books, Bodmin, Cornwall

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 Contents

Preface and acknowledgements vii

Scientific notation x

Chapter 1 Background to landslide risk assessment 1

Introduction, 1
Risk, 2
Hazard and vulnerability, 4
From hazard to risk, 8
Risk and uncertainty, 11
Risk assessment, 11
Landslide risk assessment, 29
Uncertainty and risk assessment, 32
Risk assessment as a decision-making tool, 36
Structure of the book, 37

Chapter 2 Landslide hazard 39

Introduction, 39
Landslide mechanisms and type, 41
Landslide behaviour, 44
Potential for landsliding, 51
Nature of landslide hazards, 53
Acquiring information: landslide investigation, 68
Landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment, 78
Hazard models, 101
Uncertainty, assurance and defensibility, 124

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 Contents

Chapter 3 Qualitative and semi-quantitative risk assessment 129

Introduction, 129
Risk registers, 130
Relative risk scoring, 134
Risk ranking matrices, 142
Relative risk rating, 148
The FMECA approach, 152
Qualitative risk assessment: an easy option? 161

Chapter 4 Estimating the probability of landsliding 164

Introduction, 164
Discrete events, 168
Multiple events, 175
Continuous probability distributions and sampling, 178
Subjective probability, 180
Estimating probability from historical landslide frequency, 183
Estimating probability from landslide-triggering events, 195
Estimating probability through expert judgement, 206
Estimating probability of cliff recession through simulation
models, 226
Estimating probability through use of stability analysis, 234
Estimating probability: precision or pragmatism? 242

Chapter 5 Estimating the consequences 244

Introduction, 244
Using the historical record, 247
A framework for adverse consequences, 250
Loss of life and injury, 252
Direct and indirect economic losses, 259
Intangible losses, 263
Ground behaviour, 265
Elements at risk, 270
Exposure, 270
Vulnerability, 275
Consequence models, 284
Multiple outcome consequence models, 308
Complex outcomes and uncertain futures, 319

Chapter 6 Quantifying risk 321

Introduction, 321
Current annual risk, 322
Cliff recession risk, 327

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 Contents

Comparing the risks associated with different management

options, 334
Individual Risk, 346
Societal Risk, 356
Statistics are signs from God? 364

Chapter 7 From risk estimation to landslide management strategy 368

Introduction to landslide risk management, 368
Assessment criteria, 373
Acceptable or tolerable risks, 375
Economic risks, 381
Loss of life, 386
Environmental risk, 390
Environmental acceptance criteria, 395
Climate change uncertainty: implications for landslide
management, 398
Risk assessment, decision making and consultation, 403

Glossary of terms 405

References 412

Index 443

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 Preface and acknowledgements

In recent years it has become fashionable to talk about risk in a variety of

contexts and to actively undertake risk assessments. Closer inspection
reveals, however, that in many instances the notions of risk that are
employed differ greatly or are unclear, and that the risk assessments them-
selves are often vague and of limited scope. This situation is not helped by
the fact that until recently the literature has itself been characterised by
diverse views on the nature of risk and the ideal sequence of steps required
in the undertaking of a risk assessment. Hence the idea of producing a
book to clarify the situation with reference to landslide risk assessment, a
subject of considerable interest to both authors.
Originally envisaged as a book of examples to actively assist field scientists
in developing landslide risk assessments, the final version has evolved to
include more detailed consideration of the nature of landslide hazard and
risk, as well as their relevance in a global context. Nevertheless, the
worked examples gleaned from personal experience and the literature are
considered a key feature of the book and it is hoped that the blend of
consultancy experience and academic background has produced a text
that all readers will find both stimulating and useful. As Confucius said:
‘Man has three ways of learning: firstly, by meditation, this is the noblest;
secondly, by imitation, this is the easiest; and thirdly, by experience, this is the
most bitter.’
It is important to stress that this is not a book about landsliding but about
how landsliding can affect human society. Whilst an understanding of land-
sliding is crucial in the development of a landslide risk assessment, it is only
the first step in the process. Landslide risk assessment is concerned with
establishing the likelihood and extent to which future slope failures could
adversely impact society. Two landslides can be identical in all physical

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 Preface and acknowledgements

respects yet pose very different levels of risk, emphasising that the focus
should not be on the what but on the so what!
Other important underlying issues that are worth stressing at the outset are:

. Uncertainty is an inevitable part of the risk assessment process because of

incomplete knowledge of both the probability of future events and their
consequences. All risk assessments need to be supported by a clear
statement of the uncertainties in order to inform all the parties of what
is known and unknown, and the weight of evidence for what is only
partly understood.
. Precision. Statements as to the probability of landsliding and the value of
adverse consequences can only be estimates. The temptation for increasing
precision in the risk assessment process needs to be tempered by a degree
of pragmatism that reflects the reality of the situation and the limitations
of available information. Numbers expressed to many decimal places can
provide a false impression of detailed consideration, accuracy and preci-
sion. The use of numbers also conceals the fact that the potential for
error is great because of the assumptions made and the computations
involved. Estimates will generally need to be ‘fit for purpose’ rather than
the product of a lengthy academic research programme. The quality of a
landslide risk assessment is related to the extent to which the hazards
are recognised, understood and explained — aspects not necessarily related
to the extent to which they are quantified.
. Expert Judgement. The limited availability of information dictates that
many risk assessments will rely on expert judgement. Indeed, Fookes
(1997) noted that the art of geological or geotechnical assessment is
‘the ability to make rational decisions in the face of imperfect knowledge’.
Because of the reliance on judgement, it is important that effort be
directed towards ensuring that judgements can be justified through
adequate documentation, allowing any reviewer to trace the reasoning
behind particular estimates, scores or rankings. Ideally the risk assessment
process should involve a group of experts, rather than single individuals, as
this facilitates the pooling of knowledge and experience, as well as limiting
bias.
. Defensibility. The world is becoming less tolerant of the losses caused by
landslides, especially those associated with the failure of man-made or
man-modified slopes. Increasingly, engineers get blamed for their actions
or inactions. In an increasingly litigious world there will be a need for
practitioners to demonstrate that they have acted in a professional
manner appropriate to the circumstances.
. Trust. It is important for practitioners to appreciate that their judgements
about risk may provoke considerable disagreement and controversy,

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 Preface and acknowledgements

especially if the judgements have implications for property values or the

development potential of a site. Acceptance of the risk decisions by
affected parties is critical to the successful implementation of landslide
risk management strategies. Such acceptance is dependent on the
establishment of trust and this, in turn, is dependent on openness,
involvement and good communications.
The completion of the book has brought sharply into focus the debt of
gratitude owed to many others. Both authors would like to acknowledge
the huge influence of Professor Peter Fookes in nurturing the involvement
of geomorphologists in the ‘real world’ of consultancy. They would also like
to thank all those colleagues who have, over the years, provided them with
stimulation when working on landslides, most especially Professor Denys
Brunsden, Dr John Doornkamp, Dr Jim Griffiths, Professor John Hutchinson,
Dr Jim Hall, Dr Roger Moore, Dr Fred Baynes (remember Bakuriani), Rick
Guthrie, Mike Sweeney (Shoa), David Shilston, Saul Pollos, John
Charman, Dr Alan Clark and Maggie Sellwood (forever frozen in Whitby).
They are also grateful to Jane Pugh and Mina Moskeri of the London
School of Economics for producing 34 of the diagrams (EML did the easy
ones), and to their wives Claire and Judith for putting up with the seemingly
endless disruption to normal life.

MARK LEE (emarklee@compuserve.com)

DAVID JONES (d.k.jones@lse.ac.uk)
May 2004

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 Scientific notation

Numbers are presented in a variety of ways in this book. In additional to the

conventional forms, scientific notation is used. Numbers in scientific
notation always consist of an integer to the left of the decimal point and
the remainder of the number after the decimal point, with the entire
number expressed as a multiple of 10; alternatively, the power of 10 can be
expressed as the number of decimal places to the right (positive exponent)
or left (negative exponent) of the first significant digit:

Number Scientific notation

0.0001 1.0  10ÿ4 1.0 E-4

0.001 1.0  10ÿ3 1.0 E-3
0.01 1.0  10ÿ2 1.0 E-2
0.1 1.0  10ÿ1 1.0 E-1
1 1.0  100 1.0 E0
10 1.0  101 1.0 E1
100 1.0  102 1.0 E2

Beware of the liberal use of decimal places, as they can convey a sense of
precision that may not be warranted by the judgements and assumptions
made in assessment processes. However, we have generally avoided rounding
figures up or down in order to help the reader see where the answers have
come from.

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