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Definition
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X ,
representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time
interval or specified region denoted by t, is
e −λt (λt )x
p(x; λt ) = , x = 1, 2, . . .
x!
Example
Solution
Example
Solution
ai 0.151
aii 0.801
b 12
Mean
The mean or expectation of X is given by
E (X ) = λt
Variance
The Variance of X is also given by
Var (X ) = λt
Definition
The density function of the continuous uniform random variable X
on the interval [A, B] is
Example
Solution
b
Z4
1 1
P(X ≥ 3) = dx =
4 4
3
Mean
The mean or expectation of X is given by
A+B
E (X ) =
2
Variance
The variance of X is given by
(B − A)2
Var (X ) =
12
Definition
The density function of the normal random variable X , with mean
µ and σ 2 is
2 1 1 2
X ∼ N(µ, σ ) = √ exp (x − µ) , −∞ < x < ∞
2πσ 2σ 2
This time we see that the two curves are centered at. exactly
the same position on the horizontal axis, but the curve with
the larger standard deviation is lower and spreads out farther.
1 The mode, which is the point on the horizontal axis where the
curve is a maximum, occurs at x = µ
5 The total area under the curve and above the horizontal axis
is equal to 1.
The area under the curve between any two ordinates must
then also depend on the values mean µ and variance σ 2 .
Z ∼ N(0, 1)
Type 1
The first type of problems requires us to find probability that
a certain event will or will not happen. In statistical notation,
it can be written as:
P(Z ≤ z) =?
P(Z ≥ z) =?
P(z1 ≤ Z ≤ z2 ) =?
Type 1
Solution
The area in Figure (a) to the right of z = 1.84 is equal to 1
minus the area in Table above to the left of Z = 1.84, namely,
1 − 0.9671 = 0.0329.
Type 2
The second type of problems requires us to find za rather than
probability. In other words, you need will need to find a
number on the real line rather than the area under the curve.
In statistical notation, it can be written as:
Type 2
Solution
In Figure (a) we see that the σ 2 : value leaving an area of
0.3015 to the right must then leave an area of 0.6985 to the
left. From Table above it follows that k = 0.52.
From table above, we note that the total area to the left of
-0.18 is equal to 0.4286. In Figure (b) we see that the area
between k and −0.18 is 0.4197 so that the area to the left, of
k must be 0.4286 − 0.4197 = 0.0089. Hence, from table
above, we have k = −2.37.
Example
Given a random variable X having a normal distribution with
µ = 50 and σ = 10, find the probability that X assumes a value
between 45 and 62.
= P[−0.5 < Z < 1.2] = P(Z < 1.2) − P(Z < −0.5)
Example
Given that X has a normal distribution with µ = 300 and σ = 50,
find the probability that X assumes a value greater than 362.
= 1 − 0.8625 = 0.1075
isaac.akoto@uenr.edu.gh STAT 405: Probability and Statistics (3 credits)
The Standard Normal Distribution
Example
Given a normal distribution with µ = 40 and σ = 6, find the value
of x that has
45% of the area to the left,
Solution
Solution
a An area of 0.45 to the left of the desired x value is shaded in
Figure (a). We require a z value that leaves an area of 0.45 to
the left. From Table we find
x − 40
P Z= < z = 0.45
6
x − 40
=⇒Z = = φ−1 (0.45)
6
x − 40
=⇒Z = = −0.13
6
=⇒P(Z < −0.13) = 0.45
Solution
Note
φ−1 (0.45) is obtained by reading 0.45 from the negative table of
the area under the normal curve since the probability is less than
0.5 and that gives us -0.13 or 1 - 0.45 = 0.55 from positive table of
the area under the normal curve and negate that value. i.e. -0.13.
Therefore,
x = (6 × (−0.13)) + 40 = 39.22
Solution
Note
φ−1 (0.86) is obtained by reading 0.86 from the positive table of
the area under the normal curve since the probability is greater
than 0.5 and that gives us 1.08.
Therefore,
x = (6 × (−0.13)) + 40 = 39.22
Example
A certain type of storage battery lasts, on average, 3.0 years with a
standard deviation of 0.5 year. Assuming that the battery lives are
normally distributed, find the probability that a given battery will
last less than 2.3 years.
Solution
We find,
= 0.0808
Example
An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a life, before
burn-out, that is normally distributed with mean equal to 800
hours and a standard deviation of 40 hours. Find the probability
that a bulb burns between 778 and 834 hours.
Solution
We find,
= 0.8023 − 0.2912
= 0.5111
Example
In an industrial process the diameter of a ball bearing is an
important component part. The buyer sets specifications on the
diameter to be 3.0 ± 0.01cm. The implication is that no part falling
outside these specifications will be accepted. It is known that in
the process the diameter of a ball bearing has a normal distribution
with mean µ = 3.00 and standard deviation σ = 0.005. On the
average, how many manufactured ball bearings will be scrapped?
We find,
= 2 × 0.0228
= 0.0456
isaac.akoto@uenr.edu.gh STAT 405: Probability and Statistics (3 credits)
The Standard Normal Distribution
Example
Gauges are used to reject all components where a certain
dimension is not within the specification 1.50 ± d. It is known that
this measurement is normally distributed with mean 1.50 and
standard deviation 0.2. Determine the value d such that the
specifications cover 95% of the measurements.
From the area under the curve, the score that gives a probability of
0.95 is 1.96, so
Therefore,
d
1.96 = =⇒ d = 0.2 × 1.96 = 0.392
0.2
isaac.akoto@uenr.edu.gh STAT 405: Probability and Statistics (3 credits)
The Standard Normal Distribution
Example
A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean
resistance of 40 ohms and a standard deviation of 2 ohms.
Assuming that the resistance follows a normal distribution and can
be measured to any degree of accuracy,
a what percentage of resistors will have a resistance exceeding
43 ohms?
= 1 − 0.9332 = 0.0668