Impact of Climate Change on the Frequency and Severity of

Floods in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin

Clarence L. Cabundocan, Camille P. Ignacio, Christian Jedd D. Tesnado

Engr. Cris Edward F. Monjardin

MAPÚA UNIVERSITY
School of Civil, Environmental and Geological Engineering
Dclarencec@gmail.com
camilleponio@gmail.com
cjdtesnado@gmail.com

(+63) 917 801 3597, (+63) 945 305 3629, (+63) 956 857 1474

January 2019
Impact of Climate Change on the Frequency and Severity of Floods in the Pasig
Marikina River Basin

Cris Edward F. Monjardin1*, Clarence L. Cabundocan1,

Camille P. Ignacio1, Christian Jedd D. Tesnado1

1
School of Civil, Environmental, and Geological Engineering,
Mapua University, Muralla St.,Intramuros, Manila, 1002 Philippines

*Corresponding author E-mail: cefmonjardin@mapua.edu.ph

Abstract
This study was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on the frequency
and severity of floods in the Pasig-Marikina River basin. This study used the
historical data from PAG-ASA, specifically from Science Garden weather station.
The historical data are coupled with a global climate model, the Hadley Center Model
version 3 (HadCM3) to account for the natural variability of the climate system in the
area. The observed data and the hydroclimatic data from HadCM3 is inputted in
Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) that results to rainfall data from 1961-2017
and change in temperature data from 2018-2048. A rainfall time series for the river
basin was generated taking into account the average seasonal effects in the area. A
flood frequency curve was modelled. From that, flood value for 2048 is derived to be
at 3950cu.m/s. Additionally, the rapid urbanization in the area has contributed to the
changes in the river system making it more vulnerable to floods. The results of this
study support the claim that the Pasig-Marikina River basin will definitely be affected
by the climate variability in terms of the increase in rainfall depth and average
temperatures, higher flood frequency and more massive floods.
Keywords: rainfall, flood, GIS, HadCM3, SDSM

1. Introduction

The strategic location of the Philippines, lying beyond the western boundary
of the massive Pacific Ocean, is the main cause why the country has long been
subjected and exposed to extreme weather conditions. However, over the past few
years, the country had experienced most of the world’s strongest and destructive
typhoons. Study shows that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are the major
attributions of climate change. Climate change, enhanced by global warming, induces
the rising of sea surface and subsurface temperatures whilst contributes in producing
stronger typhoons. These stronger typhoons carry more moisture which may also
mean more precipitation. Wherein the highest recorded rainfall in Metro Manila was
triggered by Typhoon Ketsana or locally known as Tropical Storm Ondoy. According
to PAGASA, the rainfall produced by the typhoon itself amounted to 455 millimetres
in 24 hrs. The soil can only absorb a maximum of 200 mm of rainfall, and the record-
breaking amount of rainfall produced by Ondoy caused extreme flooding in Metro
Manila.
Among the affected areas by the flooding caused by Tropical Storm Ondoy,
Marikina City was mostly devastated. The whole city was almost submerged in flood
water which went as high as 10 feet deep. The Marikina River overflowed
transforming its streets to rivers. This traumatic consequence of floods has called for
the growing attention because of the need to prevent or control flood damages in our
society. Developing countries have identified various adaptation policies, most of
which focus on direct and tangible impacts. However, climate change impacts are not
limited to tangible damages: the drastic changes they bring also have enormous
influence on people’s daily lives in affected communities and economic activities in
affected areas.
In this context, Marikina River Basin was chosen to comprehensively simulate
the impacts of future climate change and identify necessary actions. The study area is
located east of Metropolitan Manila. This basin is the source of flood waters that
inundates low lying areas along the Pasig-Marikina River and Mangahan Floodway.
The rivers that overflowed and resulted to exceptionally high and extensive flooding
during the TS Ketsana event are the rivers that drain the basin. Studying the future
impacts of climate change on the severity of flooding in rainfall in this basin may
prevent or lessen future damages caused by flooding in the study area.

Figure 1: Study Area

Source: Development, calibration and validation of a flood model for Marikina River
Basin, Philippines and its applications for flood forecasting, reconstruction, and
hazard mapping
 The main objective of the study is to determine the impact of climate change
on the frequency, and severity of floods in the Marikina River Basin. In line with the
main objective, the specific objectives are (1) to determine the rainfall pattern in
Marikina River Basin, (2) to gather historical records of the water level in Marikina
River Basin, (3) to assess the changes in land cover in the area of Marikina River
Basin affected by the flooding, and (4) to predict future temperature and precipitation
trends.
The results and findings of this study can be of interest to several concerned
sectors, especially to the local government unit of Marikina. Future government
policies and long-term development plans of the city can be incorporated on the
potential impacts of climate change.
Since there are restrictions in the access to general circulation model (GCM)
data, technical resources and technical expertise, climate projections are limited. This
study will prove to be beneficial for future researches on the impacts of climate
change in the Philippine setting.
This study covers the assessment of the impacts of climate change in terms of
precipitation and run-off in the Pasig-Marikina river basin. The analysis includes
gathering of hydro climatological data from agencies, such as PAGASA and DRRM
Marikina, collection and downscaling of GCM data through available software,
identifying the climate change scenario of the river basin, and simulation of rainfall-
runoff.

2. Review of Related Literature

This chapter covers related literature and studies both from international and
local research studies. This chapter includes the hydrologic cycle, the study of climate
and how it is affected by anthropogenic forces, general circulation models,
downscaling, uncertainties, hydrological model, and relating climate change to floods.
These will be used by the researchers as basis in the entire course of the study.

Climate
It is commonly thought of as the average condition of the atmosphere, ocean,
land surfaces and the ecosystems that dwell in them. It also includes the average wind
direction and strength, average cloud cover, the temperature of the sea surface nearby
which affects the previous quantities, and the ocean currents that affect the sea surface
temperature, and so on. (Neelin, 2011)
The Pasig-Marikina River basin has a Type I climate. The annual rainfall for
this basin ranges from 1700 to 3200 millimeters per year. About 80 percent of the
annual rainfall occurs during rainy season. The year round distribution of rainfall is
influenced by the weather systems that affect the river basin. (Badilla, 2008)
Climate change
Climate change is a change in the pattern of weather, and related changes in
oceans and land surfaces, occurring over time scales of decades or longer. It is a
change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists for several
decades or longer—usually at least 30 years. These statistical properties include
averages, variability and extremes.
Energy from the Sun is the ultimate driver of climate on Earth. The solar
energy received by Earth depends on how much the Sun emits and the distance
between Earth and the Sun. Part of this sunlight is reflected directly back to space by
the atmosphere, clouds, and land, ice and water surfaces. Aerosols (tiny particles in
the atmosphere, some coming from human activities) can increase the reflection of
sunlight. (Gahlau, 2018)
The Global Climate Risk Index 2015 listed the Philippines as the number one
most affected country by climate change, using 2013’s data. This is thanks, in part, to
its geography. The Philippines is located in the western Pacific Ocean, surrounded by
naturally warm waters that will likely get even warmer as average sea-surface
temperatures continue to rise. (The Climate Reality Project, 2016)
The Pasig-Marikina River Basin, is located east of Metropolitan Manila. This
basin is the source of flood waters that inundates low lying areas along the Pasig-
Marikina River and Mangahan Floodway. Floods in this area is feared to worsen due
to climate change. (Badilla, 2008)

Floods
Flooding occurs in known floodplains when prolonged rainfall over several
days, intense rainfall over a short period of time, or an ice or debris jam causes a river
or stream to overflow and flood the surrounding area. Melting snow can combine with
rain in the winter and early spring; severe thunderstorms can bring heavy rain in the
spring and summer; or tropical cyclones can bring intense rainfall to the coastal and
inland states in the summer and fall.
As land is converted from fields or woodlands to roads and parking lots, it
loses its ability to absorb rainfall. Urbanization increases runoff two to six times over
what would occur on natural terrain. During periods of urban flooding, streets can
become swift moving rivers, while basements and viaducts can become death traps as
they fill with water.
Several factors contribute to flooding. Two key elements are rainfall intensity
and duration. Intensity is the rate of rainfall, and duration is how long the rain lasts.
Topography, soil conditions, and ground cover also play important roles. Most flash
flooding is caused by slow-moving thunderstorms, thunderstorms repeatedly moving
over the same area, or heavy rains from hurricanes and tropical storms. Floods, on the
other hand, can be slow- or fast-rising, but generally develop over a period of hours or
days. (National Disaster Education Coalition, 1999)
General Circulation models
Metro Manila gets 97% of its domestic water supply from the Angat-Umiray
System (Jaranilla-Sanchez, et al, 2012). Hence it is critically important to assess the
development of water resources in the surrounding river basins (Kaliwa River Basin,
Pampanga River Basin and Angat River Basin). Six GCM models from CMIP3 were
selected using spatial correlation and relative error focusing on the best models that
represent the rainy season over the region. 3-step bias correction was done for rainfall
while direct values were used for longwave and short wave radiation as well as air
temperature. Comparison of past (1981-2000) and future (2046-2064) discharge
simulations were done to determine the effect of changes in climate on water
resources. Results of the analysis showed that in all 6 models, flood peaks in the
future will increase while 4 out of 6 models showed that baseflow will slightly
decrease in the future. 20, 50, 100 and 200 year extremes were analyzed and
hydrological drought was quantified using the SA drought index on discharge. It is
very important to be able to optimize the timing of utilizing the available excess water
during wet season to augment water deficiencies during the dry season.
The GCM used is the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model
(Roeckner et al. 1996), run at T42 resolution—which corresponds to a grid resolution
of approximately 2.88, or about 300 km—for which an ensemble of 10 integrations is
selected randomly from the 24-member ensemble made at the International Research
Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) with historical monthly SSTs prescribed at the
lower boundary from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset (Robertson, et al, 2011).
Each ensemble member uses the identical version of the GCM and differs only in its
initial condition. The Philippines is represented by a single land grid point (over
Luzon) in this GCM. The ECHAM4.5 datasets are available via the IRI/Lamont-
Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate data library (http://iridl.ldeo.
columbia.edu).

FIGURE 2: April –June mean rainfall and 850-hPa wind climatologies from: (a)
CMORPH (2005-10) and 850-hPa reanalysis winds, (b) PAGASA stations, (c) GCM,
and (d) RCM. All fields are for the 1977-2004 period, except for the CMORPH.
Rainfall units are mm 𝑑𝑎𝑦 −1. Wind vectors are plotted every 10th RCM grid point in
(d)
 In order for general circulation model (GCM) climate forecasts to be of
practical societal value, it has long been recognized that it is essential for them to be
issued at spatial scales appropriate to the decision maker or at the scale needed to
exploit them further, such as using hydrologic or crop simulation models. Because the
GCMs used for seasonal forecasting are often run at coarse spatial resolutions of say
300 km (Goddard et al. 2003).

Hydrological model
In the article issued by Kite, 2000 entitled “Using a basin-scale hydrological
model to estimate crop transpiration and soil evaporation,” the model, SLURP,
describes the complete hydrological cycle for each land cover within a series of sub-
basins including all dams, reservoirs, regulators and irrigation schemes in the basin.
The sub-basins and land covers are defined by analysing a digital elevation model and
NOAA AVHRR satellite data. The advantages of using such a model as compared to
deriving evapotranspiration from satellite data are that the model obtains results for
each day of an indefinitely long period, as opposed to occasional snapshots, and can
also be used to simulate alternate scenarios.
Cunnane and Regan (1994) used a hydrological model applied to the Brosna
catchment (a tributary of the Shannon) to simulate runoff under four prescribed
climate scenarios for the year 2030. Under these scenarios precipitation and
evaporation were increased on an annual basis, or seasonally on the basis of increased
winter and decreased summer precipitation. The results indicated that although the
magnitude of high and low flows would be only slightly greater than those observed
within the range currently experienced, the frequency of flood and drought events
would be likely to increase within that catchment. Advances in downscaling
techniques have allowed hydrological modelling to be carried out at increasingly high
spatial resolutions, with the 10 km × 10 km resolution used by Pilling and Jones
(1999) constituting the highest resolution to date. Pilling and Jones used downscaled
Global Climate Model (GCM) output for 2050 (UKHI) and for 2065 (transient
UKTR) to drive a hydrological model and simulate annual and seasonal effective
runoff for Britain.
Spatially distributed modelling is an important instrument for studying the
hydrological cycle, both concerning its present state as well as possible future changes
in climate and land use. Results of such simulations are particularly relevant for the
fields of water resources, natural hazards and hydropower. The semi-distributed
hydrological modelling system PREVAH (PREecipitation-Runoff-
EVApotranspiration HRU Model) implements a conceptual process-oriented
approach and has been developed especially to suit conditions in mountainous
environments with their highly variable environmental and climatic conditions.

Uncertainties in Climate models

Uncertainties in regional climate change simulations for the 21st century by
five coupled atmosphere‐ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) (two of them
including ensembles of simulations), for different anthropogenic forcing scenarios and
23 regions in the World, are examined. Seasonally and regionally averaged
precipitation and surface air temperature for the future period of [2070–2099] as
compared to the period of [1961–1990] are considered (Francisco, 2000). The
dominant source of uncertainty in the simulation of average regional climate change is
due to inter‐model variability with inter‐scenario and internal model variability
playing secondary roles. The range of predicted climate changes by different
realizations of the same ensemble is small, and simulated changes exhibit a high level
of coherency among different forcing scenarios. Uncertainties in regional changes are
3 K or greater for temperature and 25% of present day values or greater for
precipitation. The model biases in reproducing present day climate are ≤1 K to over 5
K for temperature and ≤10% to over 100% for precipitation.
Thomas M. Smith et al . ("how accurate are climate simulations?",
Perspectives, 19 April, p. 483) suggest that today's climate models simulate the
climate history of Earth over the past 150 years "within the observed uncertainty of
the observations." In comparing model results with trends in sea surface temperature
in several ocean basins, they estimate the uncertainty in model output arising from the
inherent chaotic variability of the climate system from the spread of three separate
simulations of a single climate model "forced with the same greenhouse gases and
sulfate aerosols" but initiated with different conditions. They conclude that the
variability in modeled temperature trends arising from the nonlinear dynamics of the
climate system is small relative to the uncertainty in observations. However, as the
model studies used only a single set of forcings, the conclusions neglect the major
source of uncertainty in model simulations of temperature trends, that arising from
uncertainty in the forcing.

Weather generator
Impact assessments of climate change on hydrology and related fields such as
agricultural and water management practice require time series of weather variables
for specific catchments or locations at daily or higher resolution. Data are needed for
both the current climate and a range of future possible scenarios. These series must be
consistent, both between variables, and with a range of observed and projected
statistics of the variables in order to account for extremes (floods and droughts) and
seasonality. Such series are not directly available from climate models, and this paper
describes an alternative approach using a ‘‘weather generator’’ to provide series of
rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind and potential evapotranspiration at river
catchment scales. The proposed methodology uses stochastic models of rainfall and
weather. Previous weather generators have used simple rainfall models based on
either Markov chains (Richardson, 1981) or empirical distributions of wet/dry spells
(Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). The approach described here uses a more
sophisticated Neyman-Scott point process model (Cowpertwait, 1991) capable of
more accurately reproducing higher order rainfall statistics. The general approach
taken is as follows:

 Observed data of rainfall and other weather variables used to define current
climate.
 Regional Climate Model (RCM) rainfall and temperature data used to derive
factors of change from current climate state to define climate change
scenarios.
 Stochastic model of daily rainfall fitted to current climate, and then re-fitted
for possible future climates using future, factored daily rainfall statistics.
 Weather Generator (WG) model based on regression relations between daily
climatic variables and daily rainfall: parameterised using current climate data,
 and then applied for possible future climates, using future factored daily
climate variable statistics.
 Software implementation using a map viewer linked to a spatial database
allowing the flexible selection of areas for generation of series.

River Discharge Projection

Projection of river discharge is necessary to cope with water-related disasters
induced by climate change, such as floods, droughts, and water scarcity
(HUNUKUMBURA & TACHIKAWA, 2012). In this regard, hydrologic and flow
routing models play a major role in transferring the climate model outputs into river
discharge. By using river discharge information, it is possible to assess future
changes in water resources, flood discharge, droughts, etc., and especially possible
future hotspots on water-related disasters can be identified. The main findings of the
river discharge projections are as follows: 1) clear changes in hourly flood peak
discharge, daily drought discharge, and monthly discharge were detected; 2) for each
discharge, the degree of change differed by location; 3) the changes appeared in the
near future climate experiment and became clearer in the future climate experiment;
and 4) a significant decrease in discharge detected.

Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

The primary objective of frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of
extreme events to their frequency of occurrence through the use of probability
distributions (Chow, Maidment, & Mays, 1988). Data observed over an extended
period of time in a river system are analyzed in frequency analysis. The data are
assumed to be independent and identically distributed. The flood data are considered
to be stochastic and may even be assumed to be space and time independent. Further,
it is assumed that the floods have not been affected by natural or manmade changes
in the hydrological regime in the system. In practice, the true probability distribution
of the data at a site or a region is unknown. The assumption that data in a given
system arise from a single parent distribution may be questionable when data from
large watersheds are analyzed. In such cases, more than one type of rainfall or flow
may contribute to extreme events in a region. However, for the analysis to be of
practical use, simpler distributions are often used to characterize the relation between
flood magnitudes and their frequencies. The performance of distributions is
evaluated by using different statistical tests. Quite often, many assumptions made in
flood frequency analysis may be invalid. At any rate these assumptions have been
questioned and discussed extensively (Hamed & Rao, 1999)

Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3)

HadCM3 was developed in 1999 and was the first unified model climate
configuration not to require flux adjustments (artificial adjustments applied to climate
model simulations to prevent them drifting into unrealistic climate states).

HadCM3 was one of the major models used in the IPCC Third and Fourth
Assessments, and also contributes to the Fifth Assessment. Its good simulation of
current climate without using flux adjustments was a major advance at the time it was
developed and it still ranks highly compared to other models in this respect (Reichler,
2008). It also has the capability to capture the time-dependent fingerprint of historical
climate change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings (Stott, 2000) which
has made it a particularly useful tool in studies concerning the detection and
attribution of past climate changes.

The atmospheric component has 19 levels with a horizontal resolution of 2.5

degrees of latitude by 3.75 degrees of longitude, which produces a global grid of 96 x
73 grid cells. This is equivalent to a surface resolution of about 417 km x 278 km at
the Equator, reducing to 295 km x 278 km at 45 degrees of latitude.

The oceanic component has 20 levels with a horizontal resolution of 1.25 x

1.25 degrees. At this resolution it is possible to represent important details in oceanic
current structures.

Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

SDSM is a user-friendly software package designed to implement statistical

downscaling methods to produce high-resolution monthly climate information from
coarse-resolution climate model (GCM) simulations. The software also uses weather
generator methods to produce multiple realizations (ensembles) of synthetic daily
weather sequences.

SDSM can be used while impact assessments require small-scale climate

scenarios, provided quality observational data and daily GCM outputs for large-scale
climate variables are available. (Government of Canada, 2017)

ArcGIS

ArcGIS is a geographic information system (GIS) for working with maps and
geographic information. It is used for creating and using maps, compiling geographic
data, analyzing mapped information, sharing and discovering geographic information,
using maps and geographic information in a range of applications, and managing
geographic information in a database. (ESRI, 2018)
3. Methodology

3.1 Research Design

The researchers will adopt a quantitative method to analyze the data of rainfall
and runoff. Simulation approach will be implemented to understand and visualize the
impact of climate change in the area of study.
3.2 Data Collection

The researchers will gather the necessary historical data of rainfall, water level
from PAG-ASA, DRRM Council, and the Marikina Local Government Unit. This will
be the initial step for this study.
3.3 Basin delineation

A 90-m spatial resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission – Digital

Elevation Model (SRTM-DEM), available online at www.philgis.org, was analysed
through ArcGIS 10.6.1 to delineate the basin and determine the study area. ArcGIS’s
ArcHydro tools were the primary instruments used to process the DEM. The process
includes Terrain pre-processing which then includes, DEM manipulation, filling
sinks, flow direction, flow accumulation, stream definition, stream segmentation,
catchment grid delineation, catchment polygon processing, drainage line processing,
drainage point processing, batch point generation, and after that, the final process
called watershed processing then generates a sub watershed through the command
batch sub watershed delineation.

Figure 4: Study Area: Marikina River Basin Generated By ArcGIS 10.6.1

The process includes manual selection of a point of interest which is based on
the outlet generated by the application. The point was also based on a real map
containing the study area. The nearest point or outlet selected in this process was the
Manggahan Floodway which is also the lower boundary of the said basin.
3.4 Observed Data Collection

To better understand how climate may change in the future for the area of
concern, long-term observational records must be utilized. In the acquisition of data
for rainfall and temperature, the researchers used the data from PAG-ASA-DOST.
This agency collects date in respect of the atmospheric differences of the area on day-
to-day basis. Precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data
for the years 1961-2017 were collected. These data were obtained from Science
Garden in Quezon City since it is the closest weather station to the area of study.
Since, the climate in the Philippines is diverse due to differences in land and
sea level temperatures; these temperatures must be recorded on long term basis at
various climatic zones of the country.

3.5 GCM Data Collection

The GCM used was the UK Meteorological Office, HadCM3 forced by

combined CO2 and albedo changes. For this study, the model run starts in 1961 and is
forced with an estimate of historical forcing to 2017 and a projected future forcing
scenario over 2018 – 2048 (30 years). This forcing is only an estimation of the ‘real’
forcing. For the climate variability to be considered in this study, the researchers used
a tool, named Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM 5.2). HadCM3 data were also
coupled in the downscaling technique. In the figure below, the global map has been
divided into seven smaller windows, with each window surrounding a main land area,
with the land-sea boundaries defined according to the HadCM3 land-sea mask. The
predictor variables are supplied on a grid box by grid box basis. The researchers chose
the region closes to the area of study. Three directories were assembled.

Figure 5: The global window where the researchers collected the HadCM3 data.
• “NCEP_1961-2001: This directory contains 41 years of daily observed
predictor data, derived from the NCEP reanalyzes, normalized over the
complete 1961-1990 period. These data were interpolated to the same grid as
HadCM3 (2.5 latitude x 3.75 longitude) before the normalization was
implemented.”
 • “H3A2a_1961-2099: This directory contains 139 years of daily GCM
predictor data, derived from the HadCM3 A2(a) experiment, normalized over
the 1961-1990 period.”
• “H3B2a_1961-2099: This directory contains 139 years of daily GCM
predictor data, derived from the HadCM3 B2(a) experiment, normalized over
the 1961-1990 period.”
The predictor utilized was under SRES scenarios. A2 climate change scenario was
adopted for this study since it is the only available option and closely resembles that
of the real scenario. The A2 scenario corresponds to a very heterogeneous world with
high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development. (IPCC,
n.d.)
3.6 Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

SDSM is used to calculate statistical relationships based on multiple linear

regression techniques between the predictors and the predictand. Using the observed
atmospheric data, these relationships are developed. (Wilby, 2002).
Prior to data analysis, quality control for the data has been done to check
whether there are missing values and to show the maximum and minimum values and
other several information.

Figure 6: SDSM’s quality check for the observed data from PAG-ASA.

Likewise, screening of variables is completed to check and filter the data that
the researchers will be using for analysis. The historical rainfall data is chosen as the
predictand for this stage. The start date and end date are 01/01/1961 and 12/31/2001,
using the NCEP as basis. There are 26 predictor variables from the directory of NCEP
1961-2001 but due to some restriction in SDSM, only 12 variables at a time can be
run. As shown in the figure below, the highest value of correlation for every variable
is shown in red. These data shows the effect of each variable on the data for each
month.

Figure 7: A sample result from screening of variables.

Meanwhile, the Correlation matrix shows the correlation of the variables with
the observed data. The partial-r and P-value are used for choosing a parameter for this
study. The researchers will have to choose a parameter that has the highest
correlation.
 Figure 8: A sample results window for correlation matrix.

The next step is to create a scatter plot for each parameter. The scatter plot will
help the researchers to inspect each predictor visually based on their inter-variable
behavior for specified season. For this research, the researchers select relative
humidity at 500 hPa (ncepr500as.dat), relative humidity at 850 hPa (ncepr850as.dat),
and mean temperature at 2m (nceptempas.dat) as the predictor variables. In the figure
below, the results suggest that between January and February that higher maximum
daily temperature are associated with mean temperature at 2m.
 Figure 9: A sample scatter plot for mean temperature at 2m (nceptempas.dat).

Figure 10: The result for the model calibration of the predictors and the predictand.
 For the model calibration, the three predictors were utilized, and the results of
the calibration is shown in the figure above. There are twelve rows correspond to the
twelve months in a year from January to December. The first column is the intercepts
while the second to fourth columns are comprised of the three parameters used and
the last two columns are for the standard error and R-squared statistics.
The next stage is to create a weather generator. The weather generator
produces groups of artificial weather series daily given the observed climatic
data/variables and the results of the model calibration. The figure below shows the
result of weather generator.

Figure 11: An example format for the simulated data.

Table 1: Summary of Downscaled Annual Average Rainfall from 1961-2001

Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall
1961 6.8 1969 6.5 1977 6.3 1985 6.6 1993 6.6
1962 5.8 1970 6.3 1978 7.1 1986 6.7 1994 7.1
1963 6.3 1971 5.9 1979 6.7 1987 6.8 1995 6.8
1964 6.2 1972 7.3 1980 6.6 1988 6.9 1996 6.5
1965 5.8 1973 6.3 1981 7.1 1989 6.3 1997 6.7
1966 6.3 1974 6.3 1982 6.7 1990 6.8 1998 7.2
1967 6.4 1975 6.9 1983 7.6 1991 6.9 1999 7.1
1968 5.8 1976 6.6 1984 6.6 1992 6.5 2000 7.2
2001 7.2

3.7 Change in Temperature data

Raw dataset for temperature from 1961-2017 were collected from the
available sources such as PAG-ASA. Meanwhile, projected change in temperature
from 1961-2099 were quantified through the SDSM 5.2 tool.
Table 2: Projected change in Temperature from Downscaled data

1961 0.845 1988 0.275 2016 0.634 2044 0.539 2072 0.524
1962 0.674 1989 0.224 2017 0.623 2045 0.482 2073 0.865
1963 0.658 1990 0.138 2018 0.753 2046 0.523 2074 0.6
1964 0.689 1991 0.234 2019 0.769 2047 0.31 2075 0.643
1965 0.665 1992 0.212 2020 0.719 2048 0.285 2076 0.764
1966 0.562 1993 0.239 2021 0.723 2049 0.419 2077 0.776
1967 0.58 1994 0.24 2022 0.707 2050 0.415 2078 0.688
1968 0.487 1995 0.196 2023 0.765 2051 0.22 2079 0.699
1969 0.619 1996 0.172 2024 0.66 2052 0.489 2080 0.782
1970 0.408 1997 0.251 2025 0.72 2053 0.6 2081 0.944
1971 0.501 1998 0.285 2026 0.767 2054 0.261 2082 0.877
1972 0.5 1999 0.266 2027 0.81 2055 0.187 2083 0.666
1973 0.524 2000 0.252 2028 0.803 2056 0.218 2084 0.808
1974 0.458 2001 0.405 2029 0.772 2057 0.294 2085 0.895
1975 0.382 2002 0.282 2030 0.761 2058 0.357 2086 0.954
1976 0.255 2003 0.222 2031 0.811 2059 0.238 2087 0.813
1977 0.279 2004 0.509 2032 0.761 2060 0.38 2088 0.946
1978 0.169 2005 0.34 2033 0.65 2061 0.475 2089 1.036
1979 0.194 2006 0.483 2034 0.777 2062 0.295 2090 0.946
1980 0.298 2007 0.557 2035 0.739 2063 0.32 2091 1.011
1981 0.27 2008 0.476 2036 0.77 2064 0.328 2092 1.049
1982 0.075 2009 0.555 2037 0.666 2065 0.427 2093 0.938
1983 0.3 2010 0.576 2038 0.603 2066 0.558 2094 1.031
1984 0.3 2011 0.57 2039 0.598 2067 0.393 2095 1.05
1985 0.207 2012 0.5 2040 0.606 2068 0.546 2096 1.052
1986 0.195 2013 0.502 2041 0.575 2069 0.541 2097 1.104
1987 0.27 2014 0.533 2042 0.603 2070 0.548 2098 1.163
2015 0.56 2043 0.47 2071 0.498 2099 1.034
4. Results and Discussions

4.1 Rainfall Pattern based on Observed data

1961-2017
15
Average Rainfall (mm)

10
y = 0.0399x - 72.188
5

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Graph 1: Observed Average Rainfall vs. Year from 1968-2017

As seen from the graph above, the observed average rainfall is understood to
have increased from the year 1961 to year 2017. The best fit trend line is y = 0.0399x
– 72.188. At the year 2012, a 12.1mm rainfall was noted in the Science Garden; this is
regarded as the highest average rainfall recorded from the time frame of 1961 to 2017.
On the other hand, the lowest average rainfall recorded was on 1969. It was during
this year when a 4.4mm rainfall is observed. An increase in rainfall of 0.0399mm per
year likely.

MAY 1961-2017
25
Rainfall (mm)

20
15
10
y = 0.0597x - 112.83
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Graph 2: Observed Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of May

AUGUST 1961-2017
50
Rainfall (mm)

40
30
20 y = 0.083x - 147.93
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Graph 3: Observed Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of August
 SEPTEMBER 1961-2017
40
Rainfall (mm)

30
20 y = 0.1175x - 218.52
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Graph 4: Observed Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of September

Based on the historical records gathered from PAG-ASA, the months of May,
August, and September incurred the highest increase in amount of rainfall. Since these
three months fall under the dry season in the study area; it can be inferred that the dry
season is much more affected by climate variability as compared to the wet season
from November to April. The month of September has seen the most drastic increase
in rainfall with 0.1175mm increase per year.
4.2 Rainfall Pattern from Downscaled data

Downscaled Rainfall Data from 1961-2001

8
Average Annual Rainfall

y = 0.021x - 34.951
6

0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year

Graph 5: Downscaled Average Rainfall vs. Year from 1961-2001

The graph above depicts the rainfall pattern gathered from the SDSM 5.2, a
downscaling tool for climate models. The best fit trend line is y = 0.021x – 34.951.
The highest average rainfall was tallied during the year 1983, while it was during
1962, 1965, and 1968 when the lowest mean rainfall is seen for the time frame of
1961-2001.
 Downscaled Rainfall Data for July
25
Average Monthly Rainfall (mm) 20
15 y = 0.0434x - 70.515
10
5
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year

Graph 6: Downscaled Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of July

Downscaled Rainfall Data for September

20
Average Monthly Rainfall (mm)

15 y = 0.0744x - 133.95
10
5
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year

Graph 7: Downscaled Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of September

Downscaled Rainfall Data for October

20
Average Monthly Rainfall (mm)

15
10 y = 0.0686x - 127.01

5
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year

Graph 8: Downscaled Average Rainfall vs. Year for the months of October

The downscaled precipitation data show that July, September and October
have experienced the greatest increase in rainfall from 1961 to 2001. September has
the highest incremental increase of 0.0744mm per year. From these information, it
can be said that the results of downscaling support the historical records in saying that
the dry season will be much affected by the impacts of climate change in terms of
precipitation increase.
4.3 Maximum Water level and Discharge in the Pasig-Marikina River

The flood area of Sto. Niño is the most significant because it has an area of
517 sq. km which is located between mountain area and alluvial plain. It has an
average estimated lag time of 5.5 hours which is influenced by the slope of the
channel of about 1/1500 and its length of 36.5 km. The JICA Preparatory Study
𝑚3
projected the release of 3211 𝑠 at Sto. Niño for the year 2009. Manning’s roughness
coefficient of 0.033 is used to come up with the data.
Table 3: Historical Data for Water level and discharge

Water Water Water

Discharge Discharge Discharge
Year Level Year Level Year Level
(cu.m/s) (cu.m/s) (cu.m/s)
(m) (m) (m)
1958 14.78 507 1971 14.5 439 1997 17.16 1279
1959 N/A 2072 1972 18.05 1559 1998 18.41 1680
1960 18.06 1562 1973 13.95 318 1999 18.3 1642
1961 16.82 1161 1974 13.98 324 2000 19.02 1895
1962 17.1 1261 1975 13.7 269 2001 16.31 972
1963 16.19 931 1976 16.9 1192 2002 17.94 1523
1964 17.45 1367 1977 19.44 2051 2003 17.76 1464
1978-
1965 15.48 702 N/A N/A 2004 19.08 1917
1985
1966 19.4 2036 1986 20.92 2650 2005 16.03 876
1987-
1967 18.2 1609 N/A N/A 2006 16.37 993
1993
1968 16.68 1107 1994 16.33 980 2007 16.9 1192
1969 17.45 1367 1995 18.4 1676 2008 16.74 1130
1970 20.48 2464 1996 16.08 893 2009 22.16 3211

4.4 Temperature Change Projection

Using the statistical downscaling tool, the annual change in temperature was
derived for the area of concern. An increasing trendline can be seen in the graph given
by the equation of y = 0.0033x – 6.0491, and a coefficient of determination of 0.1616.
There is a fairly convincing relationship between the variables as seen in the graph. It
can be interpreted based on the trend that an increase of 0.0033⁰C is expected each
year.
 Annual Change in Temperature from Downscaling
1
Change in Temperature 0.8
y = 0.0033x - 6.0491
0.6 R² = 0.1616
0.4
0.2
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year

Graph 9: Projected change in Annual Temperatures from Downscaled data

4.5 Flood Frequency Curve

Pasig - Marikina River Basin

3500

3000
y = 729.22ln(x) + 663.75
Discharge (cu.m/s)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 10 100
Recurrence Interval (years)

Graph 10: Flood Frequency Curve

The researchers estimated the probable frequency of floods based on annual

maximum discharges at Sto. Niño as shown in the graph above. The linear trend is
observed to be at y= 729.22ln(x)+663.75, where y is the maximum discharge
expressed in cu.m/s and x is the recurrence interval in years. For the year 2048, the
estimated maximum discharge follows the trend and is said to be at 3945 cu.m/s.
Sample Computation:
y = 729.22ln(x)+663.75
2048-1958 = 90 years
x = 90 years
y = 729.22ln(90)+663.75
y = 3945.10 cu.m/s
4.6 Rainfall Time Series

Time Series
25.0

20.0

15.0
y = 0.0249x + 5.8707
10.0
R² = 0.0159
5.0

0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Data Centered Moving Means Linear (Data)

Graph 11: Rainfall Time Series

The graph above shows the time series for rainfall in the Pasig-Marikina River
basin using the historical records on precipitation. The researchers arrived at this
graph with y=0.0249x+5.8707 trend line. Taking the mean of the individual seasonal
effects gives the average seasonal effects of the area. The average seasonal effects are
considered to smooth out the seasonal variation. The area of study has two distinct
seasons according to the Modified Coronas Classification; wet from November to
April and dry for the rest of the year. For the projection of future rainfall based on this
time series, on the year 2048 an amount of 15.2 mm average rainfall during the dry
season while 4.6 mm average rainfall are to be expected.
Sample Computation:
For dry season,
y = 0.0249x + 5.8707
x = 161
y = 0.0249(161) + 5.8707
y = 15.1796 mm
For wet season,
y = 0.0249x + 5.8707
x = 162
y = 0.0249(162) + 5.8707
y = 4.6045 mm
4.7 Land Cover Data

(1984) (2016)
Figure 1. Land Cover maps of the Marikina River Basin captured from Google Earth
Pro: 1984 and 2016
The maps of the Marikina River Basin shown for 1984 and 2016 (Figure 1)
illustrate a significant change in the land cover of the study area. Based on the visual
interpretation of the maps captured from Google Earth Pro, a large reduction of
brushland area is shown in the east portion of the basin. The results revealed the
greatly increase of built-up (establishments) also in the east portion and south portion
of the basin.
The results from the map in 1984 showed that the brushland area was
dominant on Marikina River Basin. The built-up area was also present in the east
portion of the basin and a little portion in the south. The forest area covers the
northeast portion of the basin.
However, the results from the map in 2016, the brushland areas noticeably
reduced and the built-up area remarkably increased. The built-up areas largely
increased in the east and south portion of the basin. The forest area has also reduced
its area in the northeast portion of the basin.
5 Conclusion

This study focused on the determination of the impact of climate change on

the frequency and severity of floods in the Pasig-Marikina River basin. The
atmospheric data, referring to rainfall and temperature, from PAG-ASA was coupled
with the climate model, HadCM3 to account for the natural variability of the climatic
system in the area of study. The observed atmospheric data from PAG-ASA covers
the year 1961-2017. Through a series of multiple linear regressions and statistical
analysis from the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), the amount of precipitation
for the year 1961-2001 and change in temperature were generated for the time span of
2018-2048. Projections on the amount of precipitation for the year 2018-2048 were
obtained through the generation of the rainfall time series while taking into
consideration, the average seasonal effects in the area. Meanwhile, a flood frequency
curve is generated based on the available data on water level and water discharge in a
stretch of the river basin which is in Sto. Niño.
The results show that climate change will affect the precipitation in the Pasig-
Marikina River basin considering the climate scenario used. The amount of
precipitation in the area will observe an increasing trend for the next 30 years (2018-
2048). Based on the outputs, both the wet and the dry seasons will incur an increase in
precipitation but the dry season of May to October will acquire a greater increase in
amount of rainfall. It was projected that the annual rainfall depth will increase by
0.0399 mm per year. Considering the average seasonal effects of ±5.3, rainfall depth
will increase by 0.0249 mm per year. Likewise, the average temperature in the area
will increase for the next 30 years with an incremental increase of 0.0033⁰C each year
starting from the baseline year of 1961. The researchers were able to estimate for the
future discharge in the river basin. The projection for the year 2048 is about 3,950
cu.m/s.
In addition, changes in land use impact the pattern of floods in the area. About
half of the river basin is protected areas under the authority of DENR. The remaining
areas are mostly owned by private sectors. Rapid population growth and urban sprawl
contributed to increase in flooding due to impermeable ground surface. Most floods
occur in the lower catchments of the basin due to indiscriminate discharge of wastes
from the inhabitants nearby the river. Thus, the river basin will overflow resulting to
the inundation of the areas it traverses.
The outcomes of this study suggest that the Pasig-Marikina River basin will be
affected by the climate variability in terms of the increase in rainfall depth and
average temperatures, higher flood frequency and more massive floods.

6 Recommendation

Since for this study, the researchers only used a single climate model in
SDSM, the level of uncertainty is high. For future researchers, utilize several climate
models to delimit the uncertainty related to the impact of climate change on the Pasig-
Marikina River basin. It is also recommended to utilize run-off simulations that will
consider the elevations of the area of concern. This will lead to better simulation
results. Another issue is downscaling the GCM data at the scale of the watershed. The
model needs to be evaluated whether it depicts a realistic representation of future
climate impacts. It would be appropriate to use other downscaling techniques aside
from the ones already used for this study.

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