Ciencia de Datos e Inferencia Estadística

Tarea 6-1
Equipo 7
Febrero 19, 2019

Nombre Matrícula

Mariana Sofía Flores Jiménez A01228124

Héctor Guillermo Muñoz Michel A01223039

José Edgar Valencia Licea A01228071

3.1.7
In a hypothetical scenario, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has
received a new replica of The Kilogram. It is weighed ve times. The measurements
are as follows, in units of micrograms above 1 kg: 114.3, 82.6, 136.4, 126.8, 100.7.

a. Is it possible to estimate the uncertainty in these measurements? If so,

estimate it. If not, explain why not.
Answer
Yes, the uncertainty can be estimated with the standard deviation of the ve
measurements.
The calculation was did in a excel sheet and we get a standard deviation
which is 21.28 µg.

b. Is it possible to estimate the bias in these measurements? If so, estimate it.

If not, explain why not.
Answer
No, because we do not know the true value.

3.2.15
The volume of a rock is measured by placing the rock in a graduated cylinder partially
lled with water and measuring the increase in volume. Eight independent
measurements are made. The average of the measurements is 87.0 mL, and the
standard deviation is 2.0 mL.
 a. Estimate the volume of the rock, and nd the uncertainty in the estimate.
Answer
μX = μ = 87 , the mean of the sample mean is the same value.

The uncertainty is:

σ 2 √2
σX = √n
= √8
= 2 = 0.7071..

The the volume is

87 ± 0.7071

b. Eight additional measurements are made,for a total of 16. What is the

uncertainty, approximately, in the average of the 16 measurements?
Answer
σ 2 1
σX = √n
= √16
= 2 = 0.5 ml

c. Approximately how many measurements would be needed to reduce the

uncertainty to 0.4 mL?
Answer
0.4= √2n
2
√n = 0.4 =5
n=5^2=25

The measurements needed to reduce the uncertainty to 0.4 ml is 25.

3.2.19
The length of a component is to be estimated through repeated measurement.

a. Ten independent measurements are made with an instrument whose

uncertainty is 0.05 mm. Let X denote the average of these measurements. Find
the uncertainty in X.
Answer
σ X = √σn = √10
.05
= 0.0158

b. A new measuring device, whose uncertainty is only 0.02 mm, becomes

available. Five independent measurements are made with this device. Let Y
denote the average of these measurements. Find the uncertainty in Y.
Answer
σ Y = √σn = 0.02
√5 = 0.0089

c. In order to decrease the uncertainty still further, it is decided to combine the

estimates X and Y. One engineer suggests estimating the length with (1/2)X +
(1/2)Y. A second engineer argues that since X is based on 10 measurements,
while Y is based on only ve, a better estimate is (10/15)X+(5/15)Y.Find the
uncertainty in each of these estimates. Which is smaller?
Answer

First engineer

√(.5) (σ /√10)
2 2
+ (.5)2 (σ Y )2 = 2 2
+ (.5)2 (σ Y /√5)2 =
σ 1X+ 1Y =
2 2 √(.5) (σ ) X X

√(.5) (0.05/√10)
2 2
+ (.5)2 (0.02/√5)2 =​ ​0.0091

Second engineer

√(10/15) (σ /√10)
2 2
+ (5/15)2 (σ Y )2 = 2 2
+ (5/15)2 (σ Y /√5)2 =
σ 10 X+ 5 Y =
15 15 √(10/15) (σ ) X X

√(10/15) (0.05/√10) 2 2
+ (5/15)2 (0.02/√5)2 =​ ​0.011

The first engineer has smaller uncertain.

d. Find the value c such that the weighted average cX+(1−c)Y has minimum
uncertainty.Find the uncertainty in this weighted average.
Answer

First we find the value c

√c (σ
2
σ= 2
X /√10)2 + (1 − c)2 (σ Y /√5) = √0.00025c2 + (c2 − 2c + 1) * 0.00008 =
√0.00033c2 − .00016c + 0.00008
σ 2 = 0.00033c2 − 0.00016c + 0.00008
Derivative to find the minimum value of c
∂σ 2
c = 0.00066c − 0.00016 = 0
c=0.24 -----> then (1-c)=.76

√(.24) (σ /√10)
2 2
+ (.76)2 (σ Y )2 = 2 2
+ (.76)2 (σ Y /√5)2 =
σ best = σ .24X+.76Y =
√(.24) (σ ) X X

√(.24) (0.05/√10)
2 2
+ (.76)2 (0.02/√5)2 =​ ​0.0078