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If the 2020 election

were today, Trump
would lose

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 0656 GMT (1456 HKT) February 23, 2019
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Senate Intel eyes Moscow-based former Trump associate

WaPo: Climate change skeptic to lead WH climate committee

Why Mueller cares about Roger Stone

North Carolina GOP candidate calls for new election

Coast Guard officer accused of planning mass attack

Trump's plan for 2020 Dems is to 'cause chaos'

Watch Feinstein's tense exchange with children over climate

 Washington braces for Robert Mueller's final report

NYT: Klobuchar ate salad with comb, told staffer to clean it

Trump to nominate new ambassador to United Nations

Tennessee state representative accused of sexual misconduct

Source: Trump will keep about 400 troops in Syria

Reports: NY Prosecutors preparing charges against Manafort

Washington (CNN)The 2020 election is 620 days away. Which, according to new state-
by-state polling data from Gallup, is a very good thing for President Donald Trump.

The data paints a simple but ominous picture for Trump: If the presidential election were
held today, he would almost certainly lose. Here's the key insight from the Gallup data:

CNN's Chris Cillizza cuts through the political spin and tells you what you need to know.
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"Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating
of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the
presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined
total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating
below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.
"In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would
have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was
between 41% and 49%."
Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign
team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it -- here are
just a sampling of the states where Trump's approval rating is currently below 49%:
Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states
have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.

THE POINT -- NOW ON YOUTUB E!

In each epis ode of his weekl y YouT ube s how, C hris Cillizz a will del ve a littl e deeper i nto t he s urreal worl d of politics. Clic k to s ubscribe!

The fundamental problem that the Gallup data points to is that Trump's approval rating is
strongest in small-population states. Of the 10 states where Gallup found Trump's
approval was the highest in 2018, the one with the most electoral votes is Tennessee,
with 11. Those 10 states have a combined 57 electoral votes. (The 10 states where
Trump is the least popular in the Gallup numbers have a total of 173 electoral votes.)
Now. Approval rating is obviously not purely predictive of vote. After all, Trump won the
2016 election even though only 38% of voters viewed him favorably, according to exit
polling. But if you are Trump, these numbers have to worry you. It suggests he has
LOTS of work to do in the next 620 days.
The Point: Predicting whether Donald Trump can win is a dicey proposition, as he
proved in 2016. But these poll numbers paint a relatively grim outlook for the
incumbent to win a second term.
And now, the week in 18 headlines:
 Monday:

 Rosenstein expected to leave Justice Department in mid-March

 16 states file lawsuit to stop Trump's national emergency declaration
 Trump talking about John James as frontrunner for UN ambassador
 Trump ramps up pressure on Venezuela's Maduro in speech
 US discussing exchanging liaison officers with North Korea

Tuesday:

 Marc Short is returning to the White House

 McCabe book details dysfunction and frenzy in Trump admin
 Trump signs Space Force directive
 Trump plans to nominate deputy transportation sec as deputy AG
 White House moves forward with wall funding despite lawsuits
 NYT: Trump asked if he could put prosecutor in charge of Cohen probe

Wednesday:

 Bolton to visit South Korea ahead of Trump-Kim summit

 DOJ preparing for Mueller report as early as next week
 Michael Cohen won't have to report to prison until May, judge rules
 Trump says AL woman who joined ISIS should not return to US

Thursday:

 Trump, Kim to meet one-on-one next week

 Roger Stone cannot speak publicly about case, judge rules

Friday:

 Sanders says Trump is 'typically one of the first' to condemn violence against journalists

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