THESIS

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON PRICE INDEX OF ROOTCROPS FROM 2000-2015
An Undergraduate Thesis
Presented to the Faculty of the College of Science
Polytechnic University of the Philippines
Sta. Mesa, Manila
In Partial Fulfillment of the of the Requirements for the Degree
Bachelor in Applied Statistics
By:
Damaso, Klessa Louisse
Rose, Nino S.
CHAPTER 1
THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND
Our introduction in time series analysis on price index of crops is equivalent to per capita
supply of 43.1 kg. per year or 118 grams per day. Actual intake of starchy roots which amounts
to an average of 42 grams per capita per day shows that it is almost one-third of the per capita
supply. The wide gap existing between the actual intake of roots and the supply indicates a
possibility that a large quantity of the country's supply of starchy roots and tubers for food is not
actually utilized for that purpose. Except in a few places of the country, root crops are used only
as substitute food when the supply of rice 'and corn is low and price of these cereals is high.
Practically all of the supply of starchy roots in this country is produced locally. Of the total root
crops produced, about '51.9% is sweet potato, 35.7% is carrots and 7.0% is gabi or taro.
Time series analysis on price index of crops is generally rich in complex carbohydrates
and dietary fiber. Starchy roots and tubers are mainly used as human food, animal feed or
manufactured to produce starch and alcohol in the Philippines. About half a million hectares of
agricultural land are devoted to crops production annually while it contribute 4% to gross value
added from agriculture. The Philippine economy is largely dependent on agriculture despite the
plan to make it an industrialized economy by 2000. Most citizens still live in rural areas and support
themselves through agriculture. The country's agriculture sector is made up of 4 sub-sectors:
farming, fisheries, livestock, and forestry (the latter 2 sectors are very small), which together
employ 39.8 percent of the labor force and contribute 20 percent of GDP (Nations Encyclopedia).
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is the government agency responsible for all
agricultural activities in the country. The DA has a number of staff bureaus and attached agencies
that conduct activities on crop production, regulation and R&D. The attached agencies look at a
specific crop, e.g., the Philippine Rice Research Institute (Philrice) for rice, the Sugar Regulatory
Administration (SRA) for sugar cane, the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) for coconut, the
Fiber Development Authority (FIDA) for abaca and other fiber crops, the National Tobacco
Administration (NTA) for tobacco, and the Cotton Development Authority (CODA) for cotton. On
the other hand, the staff bureaus like the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), the Bureau of Post-
Harvest Research and Extension (BPRE), the Bureau of Soils and Water Management (BSWM),
the Bureau of Agricultural and Fishery Product Standards (BAFPS), and the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics (BAS) have multi-crop responsibilities.
According to a survey conducted by the National Nutrition Survey (NNS), the Food and
Nutrition Research Institute of the Department of Science and Technology (FNRI-DOST) in 2008,
revealed that starchy roots and tubers are consumed at 17 grams daily or about two percent of
the total food intake of Filipino households. The NNS found that there is a decreasing trend in
consumption of starchy roots and tubers among Filipino households from 1978 to 2008. Sweet
potato is one of the commonly-consumed starchy roots and tubers in the Philippines, along with
potato, taro or gabi, and cassava. Around four percent of Filipino households eat sweet potatoes
regularly.
Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) or “yam” is locally known as “camote” in the Philippines.
The tuberous root is long and tapered, with a smooth skin whose color ranges between yellow,
orange, red, brown, purple, and beige. Its flesh ranges from beige through white, red, pink, violet,
yellow, orange, and purple. Sweet potato varieties with white or pale yellow flesh are less sweet
and moist than those with red, pink or orange flesh. Sweet potato is used as food, feeds, and raw
materials for processing. It is rich in carbohydrates, protein, potassium, dietary fiber and vitamins.
Sweet potato production in the Philippines posted an average annual growth rate of -0.37 percent
over the past fifteen (15) years from 2000 to 2015. The country produced 527,730 metric tons of
sweet potato in 2015. Sweet potato is one of the non-rice staples under FSSP and considered as
one of the traditional staples in some areas of the country. There is a growing demand for data
on costs and returns of production.
Carrot (Daucus carot L.) is a crop primarily grown for its fleshy root which is used as
vegetable. Its root is rich in carotene, a precursor of Vitamin A. It also contains appreciable
amounts of thiamine, riboflavin and sugar. Carrots are considered as root crops. In fact, they are
one of the most popularly grown root crops in the world. Not only that, they're also the world's
most consumed root crops. It originated from Central Asia with Afghanistan as the primary center
of origin. It is one of the most important vegetables commonly grown in the Philippine highlands.
Among the highland vegetables, area harvested for carrots was largest at 1.45 thousand hectares
but this was 0.14 percent below the 1.46 thousand hectares during the first half of 2004. During
the first semester of 2005, production of Benguet was 13.7thousand metric tons or 81.4 percent
share to total output. Cebu followed at 722 metric tons or 4.3 percent share. Other major
producers were Mt. Province, Negros Oriental and Davao del Sur. Sweet and succulent carrot
are notably rich in anti-oxidants, vitamins and dietary fiber; however, they provide only 41 calories
per 100 g, negligible amount of fat and no cholesterol. They are exceptionally rich source of
carotenes and vitamin-A. 100 g fresh carrot contains 8285 mcg of beta-carotene and 16706 IU of
vitamin A. Beta carotene is one of the powerful natural anti-oxidant that helps protect body from
harmful free radical injury. It also has all the functions of vitamin A such as vision, reproduction
(sperm production), maintenance of epithelial integrity, growth and development. Carrots are rich
in poly-acetylene anti-oxidant falcarinol. Fresh roots are high in vitamin C; provide about 9% of
RDA. Vitamin C is water soluble anti-oxidant. It helps the body maintain healthy connective tissue,
teeth and gum. Its anti-oxidant property helps protect us from diseases and cancer by scavenging
harmful free radicals. This root vegetable specially contain good amounts of many B-complex
group of vitamins such as folic acid, vitamin B-6 (pyridoxine), thiamin, pantothenic acid, etc that
acts as co-factors to enzymes during substrate metabolism in the body. It also has healthy levels
of minerals like copper, calcium, potassium, manganese and phosphorus. Potassium is an
important component of cell and body fluids that helps control heart rate and blood pressure by
countering effects of sodium. Manganese is used by the body as a co-factor for the antioxidant
enzyme, superoxide dismutase (Organic Farming 2007).
The common name for taro in Tagalog and in the closely-related national language,
Filipino, is gabi. This name is now recognized throughout the Philippines. Many other species
level names are used among the more than 100 languages spoken in this country (Madulid 2001),
and a few examples are noted here. Wester (1924) listed ninety-fi ve cultivar names, including
near duplicates, and Papas (1986) listed a much smaller number of names for common or
commercial taro cultivars.
White/Irish Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.). , locally known as ‘patatas”, is grown in 130
countries worldwide including the Philippines. It is grown for its tubers, which are rich in
phosphorus and vitamins B1, B2, and C. Reports showed that a potato crop produces more edible
energy and protein per hectare and per unit of time than practically any other crops (DOST, 2007).
The major potato production in the Philippines is concentrated in high elevations particularly in
Benguet and Mountain Province with a temperature below 21oC. This temperature is suitable for
growth and development of quality potato tubers.
White/Irish Potato are used for a variety of purposes, and not only as a vegetable for
cooking at home. In fact, it is likely that less than 50% of potatoes grown worldwide are consumed
fresh. The rest are processed into potato food products and food ingredients; fed to cattle, pigs,
and chickens; processed into starch for industry; and re-used as seed tubers for growing the next
season’s potato crop.

Theoretical Framework
The Price Index Theory is the study of price index, or the economic process of converting
inputs into outputs. Because the price index are many prices before discussing the relationship
between indexes of prices, quantities and expenditures.
1. The quantity of the good or service produced
2. The form of good or service created
3. The temporal and spatial distribution of the good or service produced.
Conceptual Framework
The inputs of the price index of root crops such as (Carrots, Gabi Cebu,for
ginataan[Taro(cocoyam)], Sweet Potato, White/Irish Potato). The data here came from Philippine
Statistics Authority.
The process indicates the methods used in the study.
The first process is descriptive statistics which includes the trend, the histogram, and the
corresponding statistics. Then, the test for stationary process and normality that is the Unit Root
Test-Augmented-Dickey Fuller method. After that is the test for seasonality variation of the given
data. And determining the best model with ARIMA model.

INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT
Our Framework of the Study

Statement of the Problem
The researchers aim to know how to develop a model that could be used to analyze the
price index of crops, in the Philippines. This study aims to provide answers to the following
problems:
1. What are the movements of the time series analysis on price index of crops(Carrots, Gabi
Cebu,for ginataan[Taro(cocoyam)], Sweet Potato, White/Irish Potato)over the year 2000 to 2015?
2. What model could rightfully predict the price index of crops?
3. Is there a significant difference between the price index of crops and actual crops?
Significance of the Study
This study would inform the producers and consumers to gain knowledge about the price
index of root crops from 2000 to 2015.
The Students. This study will help the future researchers who will need a background
analysis on price index of crops as a foundation.
The Teachers. This study can be a good example in the economic and agriculture for the
field of academics. This can be a good example of real life situation basing on the movement of
price index of root crops.

Scope and Limitation
The study used a secondary data of monthly price index of crops from January 2000-
December 2015. The data were gathered from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Definition of Terms
ARIMA - ARIMA models are models that may possibly include autoregressive terms, moving
average terms and differencing operation.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test – Tests the null hypothesis that a unit root is present in a time
series sample.
Box-Jenkins Procedure – Applies autoregressive moving average
(ARMA) or autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to find the best fit of a time
series model to past values of a time series.
Crops – A cultivated plant that is grown as food, especially grain, fruit, or vegetable.
Descriptive- Are used to describe the basic features of the data in a study. They provide simple
summaries about the sample and the measures.
E-Views- A statistical package for Windows, used mainly for time-series oriented econometric
analysis.
Jarque-Bera Test - Is used to know if the data have a normal distribution.
Time Series - Time series is a sequence of data points, typically consisting of successive
measurements made over time interval.
T-Test -The t test compares two averages (means) and tells you if they are different from each
other. The t test also tells you how significant the differences are; In other words it lets you know
if those differences could have happened by chance.

Trend- is the component of a time series that represents variations of low frequency in a time
series, the high and medium frequency fluctuations having been filtered out
Seasonality – Seasonality in time series is a regular pattern changes that repeats over S time
periods, where S defines the number of time periods until the patterns repeats again.
Unit Root Test - Tests whether a time series variable is non-stationary using an autoregressive
model.
CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Foreign Studies
Based on our research the price index of white/irish potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) is well
developed in South Africa, with potatoes being sold fresh on the 22 national fresh produce
markets (60%), for seed (13%), for processing (19%) and for export (8%). During the 2002–2003
season some 733 173 tones of potatoes were delivered to the national fresh produce markets,
realizing a total turnover of around ZAR1 662 million. Approximately 22% of the table crop is used
for processing of which 16.5% is for fresh French fries, 43.9% for frozen fries and 37.4% for crisps
(Theron 2003).The sweet potato is considerably smaller than that of the potato. The average price
index of sweet potato in South Africa from 2000/2001 to 2002/2003, was 57 000 tones according
to official production figures (National Department of Agriculture 2002). In 2000/2001, 1.4% of the
total vegetable production of 3.75 million tones was sweet potato. Processing is limited to sporadic
drying and freezing, and making chips or bread. The taro/cocoyam stated that relative humidity
can be controlled by adding polyethylene liners in packing containers and using perforated
polymeric films for packaging. Aroids can be successfully stored in plastic bags. This implies that
storage life can be generally improved at conditions of lower temperature and high humidity. The
cooling of produce extends its life by slowing the rate of breakdown. Losses have been decreased
with improved storage systems that control temperature and humidity. Maximum storage life can
be achieved by storing only undamaged produce at the lowest temperature and highest relative
humidity tolerable by the crop (FAO, 1989).Carrot were tested for the extraction yields of
carotenes at temperatures 20°C, 40°C, and 60°C, the samples having been examined after
harvest, after cold storage (stored at 5°C), and after freezing (–18°C). In connection with the
technology of the carotenoid concentrate production from carrots, it was found that the solubility
and yield of carotene from carrot depend on the temperature and the time of extraction as well as
the treatment of the sample.
Foreign Literature
Based on our research that there is a relatively thin literature on cooperatives in
developing countries compared to the developed world, where it is mainly a part of the
agribusiness literature. This literature has received renewed interest as vertical integration has
become more 3 widespread in the agribusiness, and has also changed the causal direction
between farming and agribusiness from being led from the farm level to be led from the retail
industry (Reardon, et al., 2003). This might also have an effect on how farmers’ cooperatives form
in developing countries today. In the literature, there are expressed fears of monopsonistic
exploitation of small-scale farmers in contract schemes due to the unequal balance of power
between the contractor and the small-scale farmer. Thus, a common proposal to rectify this
situation is to support the creation of farmers organizations (Glover, 1987, Sivramkrishna and
Jyotishi, 2008). Furthermore, the effect of farmers’ organizations depends on how well they
function, how the contract negotiations between the farmers and the company for the contract are
conducted and in what context. Bingen et al. (2003) define three different type of contracts or
linkages between farmers and business based on their degree of human capacity building, and
thereby the possibilities of farmers’ organizations to emerge and develop. Their claim is that only
those types of contracts that build human capacity will lead to long term sustainable benefit to the
small-scale farmer and its community, that also can last after the end of a project. They classify
the contracts in three categories: i) Contract/business which is profit driven,
ii) Projects initiated and run by NGOs, and
iii) Process oriented human capacity development projects.

Local Studies
Based on our research this is the review that will attempt to address crop estimation from
two aspects: systems that involve ground data only in the final process and systems which utilize
remote sensing data as a prime input into the final product. These technology advances have
greatly increased the ease of area frame construction, maintenance, and sampling; decreased
associated costs and have reduced sampling variation both through better stratification and later
through regression estimates. Estimates have progressed from being sums of local area
information, direct expansions of statistically sampled data, crop specific pixel classifications,
through error corrected regression and/or calibration estimation. Small area estimation is much
more accurate and timely. Classification outputs also allow users more access to location
information, such as needed for planning railroad cars placing during crop harvest periods.
Local Literature
Aside from our research the price index of crops is also recommended that the source of
uncertainty in trade data is linked to discrepancies in bilateral-commodity trade data. These
discrepancies somehow make country totals “unreliable” and may lessen the integrity of the trade
structure. Although the findings show that the disparity between the Philippine import data and
the exports of the exporting countries is attributable more to legitimate conceptual differences,
data reconciliation with trading partner may be conducted to determine and quantify which factors
really cause the said discrepancies. This can help explain the discrepancy between the import
and export statistics of trading partners and at the same time aid partner countries to better
understand bilateral trade flows. First, the area planted for harvest of a given crop may
change throughout the growing season. Such issues as use for purposes other than grain,
abandonment, extreme weather damage, or unusual economic conditions may cause this
change. It is usually necessary to make estimates several times throughout the crop
season even for a given crop. You might measure prospective or intended plantings
before they actually take place, next you could measure actual plantings early in the crop
season, and then measure actual harvested area at the end-of-season. Certainly the most
significant challenge in estimating crop production is in doing so early in the season. Area
estimation can create problems especially in countries prone to drought or flooding
problems. However, very severe events in any country can take planted area out of
production, since it either can’t be harvested or it’s economically infeasible to do so. These
unforeseen, one-time conditions may cause a need for a special, one-time measurement
of area. Having more than one crop adds another layer of complexity also, with widely
different seasons between types of crops, planting more than one crop in a field (both
consecutively and planted together at the same time).

CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This chapter discusses the research design used, the data gathering procedure, and the
statistical treatment of the data. This also presents the descriptive outputs of the data used to
analyze the time series analysis on price index of crops.
Research Design
The researchers used the descriptive method that provides the basic summaries that
describes the data. Descriptive method is characterized as a survey or normative approach to the
study of conditions, essential guide to one’s thinking. It is concerned of relationships that exists;
practices that prevails; beliefs, processes that are going on; effects that are being felt, or trends
that are developing (Philippines, 2000)
Data Gathering Procedure
The researchers collected monthly price index of crops(Sweet Potato, Gabi/Taro,
White/Irish Potato, Carrots) from the year 2000 to 2015 from the Philippine Statistics Authority
(PSA) and also available from their website (http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph). After getting the data,
these will be analyzed using the statistical treatments.
The crops from January 2000 to December 2015 in monthly period are considered as dependent
variables in this study.

Statistical Treatment of the Data
The researchers looked into forecasting models that can be found in time series analysis
which used in this research to model monthly price index of crops from January 2000 to December
2015. The researchers used Econometric Views (E-Views) for estimation of model, SPSS for the
significant differences of the actual and analyzed the price index of crops.
Descriptive Statistics
In this process, histogram with corresponding statistics (mean, median, standard deviation
and more) was given when generated. It indicates the trend and an informal way of justifying the
seasonality of the given data. And the corresponding statistics indicates whether the given data
is normal or not. The researchers used Jarque-Bera test to know if the data have a normal
distribution.
Time Series
Time series is a sequence of data points, typically consisting of successive measurements
made over time interval. Time series data often arise when monitoring industrial processes or
tracking corporate business metrics. The data may be every hour, daily, weekly, monthly,
quarterly and annually. Time series accounts for the fact that data points taken over time may
have an internal structure (such as autocorrelation, trend or seasonal variation) that should be
accounted for. It also comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract
meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data.

Stationary Process
A stationary process has a property that the mean, variance and autocorrelation structure
do not change over time. Stationary can be defined in precise mathematical terms, but for the
researchers’ purpose it means flat looking series, without trend, constant variance over time,
constant autocorrelation structure overtime and no periodic fluctuations (seasonality). Unit Root
Test tests whether a time series variable is non-stationary using an autoregressive model. The
researchers used the well-known test called Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.
Box-Jenkins Procedure
This is a forecasting named after George Edward Pelham Box and Gwilyn Merion Jenkins.
This methodology includes four steps. First is the identification of given time series’ order of
integration (I), the autoregressive component (AR), and the moving component (MA). The next
step is to estimate the parameters of the chose ARIMA model. Third is the diagnostic testing
wherein the chosen ARIMA model is subjected to a series to test with the end-view of determining
whether the model is indeed the best model to forecast the given time series. The most important
criterion used to diagnose a chose ARIMA model is competent one is with regards to the normality
of the residuals it had generated. If the third step model determined was inefficient for forecasting,
then the return to the first step and repeat the process over again. If the model has been proved
to be efficient in forecasting then proceed to the fourth step and the final step of the Box-Jenkins
methodology, the forecasting.

Seasonality
Seasonality is a component of time series which is defined as the repetitive and
predictable movement around the trend line in one year or less. It is detected by measuring the
quantity of interest for smalltime intervals, such as days weeks, months or quarters.
ARIMA Model
ARIMA models are models that may possibly include autoregressive terms, moving
average terms and differencing operations. When a model only involves autoregressive terms, it
may be referred to as an AR model. When a model only involves moving average terms, it may
be referred to as an MA model.
Chapter 4
PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA
This chapter explains the nature and summary statistics of time series analysis of price
index of crops from 2000-2015. In addition, this chapter also presents the test of assumptions and
model specification.
Descriptive Analysis of the Given Time Series
For the descriptive analysis, researchers utilized Econometric Views, also known as
EViews. The researchers report the mean, minimum and maximum values, skewness, Jarque-
Bera statistic and probability values. Also, EViews produced a time series and histogram that
shows the trends of every harvest of crops from 2000-2015.
Carrots 20
90 Series: CARROTS
Sample 2000M01 2015M12
16 Observations 192
80
Mean 53.31255
70 12 Median 51.86000
Maximum 87.15000
60 Minimum 30.66000
8 Std. Dev. 12.32910
Skewness 0.482054
50
Kurtosis 2.720131
4
40 Jarque-Bera 8.062639
Probability 0.017751
30 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Figure 1. Price Index of Carrot
Figure 1 shows time series, histogram and summary statistics of the price index of carrot
from the 2000-2015. The mean of price index of carrots 53.31255 thousand metric tons. For the
past years, its price index reached the highest of price index on the second quarter of 2015
which is 87.15 thousand metric tons, and obtained its lowest price index on the second quarter
of 2000 with 30.66 thousand metric tons. This also reveals that carrot harvested is leptokurtic,
kurtosis greater than 2.720131, and smaller skewed 0.482054. As per Jarque- Bera statistics,
carrot is not normally distributed because the p-value, 0. 017751, is less than the significance
level, 0.05
White/Irish Potato
100 30
Series: WHITE_IRISH_POTATO
90 Sample 2000M01 2015M12
25
Observations 192
80
20 Mean 48.09906
70
Median 46.50500
60 Maximum 93.04000
15
Minimum 28.15000
50 Std. Dev. 13.61382
10 Skewness 0.535830
40 Kurtosis 2.584646
5
20 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Figure 2. Price Index of White/ Irish Potato
Figure 2 shows time series, histogram and summary statistics of the price index White/
Irish Potato of from the 2000-2015. The mean of price index White/ Irish Potato 48.09906
thousand metric tons. For the past years, its production reached the highest production on the
second quarter of 2015 which is 93.04 thousand metric tons, and obtained its lowest production
on the second quarter of 2000 with 28.15 thousand metric tons. This also reveals that White/
Irish Potato harvested is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater than 2.584646 and skewed is 0.535830.
As per Jarque- Bera statistics, White/Irish Potato is not normally distributed because the p-
value, 0.005073, is less than the significance level, 0.05
Sweet Potato
40
20
Series: SWEET_POTATO
35 Sample 2000M01 2015M12
16 Observations 192
30 Mean 20.13891
12 Median 19.09000
25
Maximum 37.78000
Minimum 10.78000
8 Std. Dev. 6.462433
20 Skewness 0.537387
Kurtosis 2.276966
15 4
Jarque-Bera 13.42335
10 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
Figure 3. Price Index Sweet Potato
Figure 3 shows time series, histogram and summary statistics of the price index Sweet
Potato of from the 2000-2015. The mean of price index Sweet Potato 20.14 thousand metric
tons. For the past years, its price index reached the highest of price index on the second quarter
of 2015 which is 37.78 thousand metric tons, and obtained its lowest production on the second
quarter of 2000 with 10.78 thousand metric tons. This also reveals Sweet Potato harvest is
leptokurtic, kurtosis greater than 2.276966 and skewed is 0.537387. As per Jarque-Bera
statistics, Price Index Sweet Potato is not normally distributed because the p-value, 0.001217,
is less than the significance level, 0.05.

Gabi
44 24
Series: GABI
40 Sample 2000M01 2015M12
20
Observations 192
36
16 Mean 23.00401
32 Median 20.76000
Maximum 42.58000
28 12 Minimum 13.64000
Std. Dev. 7.450019
24
8 Skewness 1.066286
20
Kurtosis 3.160141
16
12 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42
Figure 4. Price Index Gabi
Figure 4 shows time series, histogram and summary statistics of the price index Gabi
from the 2000-2015. The mean of price index Gabi 23.00401 metric tons. For the past years, its
rice index reached the highest of price index on the second quarter of 2015 which is 42.58
thousand metric tons, and obtained its lowest production on the second quarter of 2000 with
13.64 thousand metric tons. This also reveals Gabi harvested is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater
than 3.160141 and skewed is 1.066286. As per Jarque-Bera statistics, Price Index Gabi is not
normally distributed because the p-value, 0.000000, is less than the significance level, 0.05.
Unit Root Determination
To test and determine the variable time series’ unit root, researchers utilized the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test. For a given time series to be stationary, the computed p-value
should be less than the significance level 0.05.
Table 1. ADF Unit Root for the Price Index of Carrot
Test for Unit Include In Test ADF Test Mackinnon Critical Value
Probability
Root Equation Statistics 1% 5% 10%
Interpret -9.149846 -3.465977 -2.877099 -2.575143 0.0000
Trend and
First Difference -9.139165 -4.008706 -3.434433 -3.141157 0.0000
Intercept
None -9.123555 -2.57759 -1.942564 -1.615553 0.0000
Table 1 shows that all the computed p-values, after differencing, became less than the significance
level 0.05. The researchers can now conclude that the result was satisfactory, making it stationary
Table 2. ADF Unit Root for the Price Index of White/Irish Potato
Probability
Interpret -9.842485 -3.465392 -2.876843 -2.575006 0.0000
Trend and
First Difference -9.812123 4.007882 -3.434036 -3.140923 0.0000
Intercept
None -9.802884 -2.577387 -1.942536 -1.615571 0.0000
Table 3. ADF Unit Root for the Price Index of Gabi
Probability
Interpret -13.05514 -3.464827 -2.876595 -2.574874 0.0000
Trend and
Intercept
None -12.68008 -2.57719 -1.942508 -1.615589 0.0000
Table 4. ADF Unit Root for the Price Index of Sweet Potato
Probability
Interpret -9.871732 -3.466377 -2.877274 -2.575236 0.0000
Trend and
Intercept
None -9.706124 -2.57773 -1.942584 -1.615641 0.0000
Test for Seasonality
This part will test whether the time series data of volume of production of livestock and
poultry keeps seasonality or not with seasonal indicators quarterly. The computed F-statistic should
be greater than the critical value 0.05 level of significance. If the time series data had found out that
there is seasonality, then it will undergo deseasonalizing.

Table 6.Seasonality Test for Gabi Price Index
Dependent Variable: D(JANUARY)

Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:10
Sample (adjusted): 2000M05 2001M04
Included observations: 12 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
JANUARY(-1) 0.331331 0.226101 1.465408 0.1862

D(JANUARY(-1)) -0.436971 0.501005 -0.872190 0.4120
D(JANUARY(-2)) 0.001244 0.622695 0.001997 0.9985
D(JANUARY(-3)) 1.047563 0.557942 1.877549 0.1025
C -5.943388 3.573551 -1.663160 0.1402
Table 6 shows the seasonality test for the price index of Gabi. The result performed
seasonal adjustment. Since, the p-values are greater than 0.05. The researchers concluded that
there is no seasonality.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(FEBRUARY)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:24
FEBRUARY(-1) 0.296858 0.195027 1.522137 0.1718

D(FEBRUARY(-1)) -0.390518 0.451582 -0.864778 0.4158
D(FEBRUARY(-2)) 0.045549 0.582382 0.078211 0.9398
D(FEBRUARY(-3)) 1.235237 0.544999 2.266495 0.0578
C -5.491883 2.994103 -1.834233 0.1093
seasonal adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05. The researchers concluded that there
is no seasonality.
Table 8.Seasonality Test for Gabi Price index

Dependent Variable: D(MARCH)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:51
MARCH(-1) 0.268282 0.153690 1.745610 0.1244

D(MARCH(-1)) -0.495759 0.356872 -1.389179 0.2074
D(MARCH(-2)) 0.050213 0.463554 0.108322 0.9168
D(MARCH(-3)) 1.315699 0.431673 3.047903 0.0186
C -4.827414 2.242924 -2.152286 0.0684
seasonal adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 but D(MARCH(-3)) are less than 0.05
the researchers concluded that there is seasonality.

Dependent Variable: D(APRIL)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:50
APRIL(-1) 0.242202 0.173894 1.392813 0.2063

D(APRIL(-1)) -0.430102 0.398636 -1.078934 0.3164
D(APRIL(-2)) -0.393121 0.536600 -0.732614 0.4876
D(APRIL(-3)) 1.516388 0.562034 2.698034 0.0307
C -4.071471 2.582513 -1.576554 0.1589
seasonal adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 but D(APRIL(-3)) are less than 0.05 the
researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Table 10 Seasonality Test for Gabi Price Index
Dependent Variable: D(MAY)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:43
MAY(-1) 0.407164 0.184424 2.207760 0.0546

D(MAY(-1)) -0.647380 0.476763 -1.357867 0.2076
D(MAY(-2)) -1.134240 0.718549 -1.578514 0.1489
C -4.906644 3.289356 -1.491673 0.1700
Table 10 shows the seasonality test for Gabi. The result performed seasonal adjustment.
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is no seasonality.

Dependent Variable: D(JUNE)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:48
JUNE(-1) 0.342131 0.165687 2.064926 0.0778

D(JUNE(-1)) -0.102493 0.435752 -0.235209 0.8208
D(JUNE(-2)) -1.194603 0.362184 -3.298330 0.0132
D(JUNE(-3)) 0.906054 0.524116 1.728728 0.1275
C -5.423836 2.717245 -1.996079 0.0861
Table 11 shows the seasonality test for Gabi. The result performed seasonal adjustment. Since, the
p-value are greater than 0.05 and D(JUNE(-2)) are less than 0.05 the researchers concluded that
there is a seasonality.
Dependent Variable: D(JULY)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:55
JULY(-1) 0.541049 0.204225 2.649283 0.0265

D(JULY(-1)) -0.727684 0.456519 -1.593983 0.1454
D(JULY(-2)) -1.256088 0.529135 -2.373852 0.0416
C -8.054208 3.852403 -2.090697 0.0661
seasonal adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 but JULY(-1),D(JULY(-2)) are less than
0.05 the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Dependent Variable: D(AUGUST)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 20:59
AUGUST(-1) 0.317665 0.165785 1.916125 0.0817

D(AUGUST(-1)) -0.601162 0.467834 -1.284988 0.2252
C -4.405187 3.177934 -1.386180 0.1931
Dependent Variable: D(SEPTEMBER)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:02
SEPTEMBER(-1) 0.469761 0.243640 1.928093 0.0952

D(SEPTEMBER(-1)) -0.680559 0.515140 -1.321114 0.2280
D(SEPTEMBER(-2)) -0.789110 0.443481 -1.779354 0.1184
D(SEPTEMBER(-3)) 0.703911 0.512777 1.372744 0.2122
C -7.792626 4.249853 -1.833622 0.1094

Dependent Variable: D(OCTOBER)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:03
OCTOBER(-1) 0.576319 0.169048 3.409199 0.0078

D(OCTOBER(-1)) -1.169768 0.378166 -3.093265 0.0129
D(OCTOBER(-2)) -0.958153 0.372231 -2.574083 0.0300
C -8.349877 3.139547 -2.659580 0.0261
Since, the p-value are less than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.
Table 16.Seasonality Test Gabi Price Index

Dependent Variable: D(NOVEMBER)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:06
NOVEMBER(-1) 0.627113 0.155643 4.029175 0.0030

D(NOVEMBER(-1)) -1.209132 0.336610 -3.592090 0.0058
D(NOVEMBER(-2)) -1.064463 0.322164 -3.304100 0.0092
C -9.353637 2.971645 -3.147629 0.0118
Table 16 shows the seasonality test for Gabi. The result performed seasonal adjustment. Since, the
p-value are less than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Dependent Variable: D(DECEMBER)
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:07
DECEMBER(-1) 0.759913 0.202343 3.755573 0.0071

D(DECEMBER(-1)) -1.483960 0.439838 -3.373880 0.0119
D(DECEMBER(-2)) -1.390447 0.401399 -3.464004 0.0105
D(DECEMBER(-3)) -1.087109 0.508504 -2.137857 0.0699
C -10.78263 3.614473 -2.983182 0.0204
Since, the p-value are only one greater than 0.05 which is the D(DECEMBER(-3)).Therefore, the rest
are less than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.
Table 18. Seasonality Test for Carrot Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:19
Sample (adjusted): 2002 2015
JANUARY(-1) -0.242055 0.317031 -0.763506 0.4612

D(JANUARY(-1)) -0.511292 0.291778 -1.752333 0.1075
C 15.01806 16.26681 0.923233 0.3757
Table 18 shows the seasonality test for Carrot. The result performed seasonal adjustment.
Since, the p-value are only one greater than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is no
seasonality.
Table 19.Seasonality Test for Carrot Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:22
FEBRUARY(-1) -0.235673 0.249864 -0.943207 0.3702

D(FEBRUARY(-1)) -0.687996 0.289668 -2.375119 0.0416
D(FEBRUARY(-2)) -0.655980 0.259492 -2.527939 0.0323
C 14.87536 11.73299 1.267823 0.2367
Since, the p-value are two greater than 0.05 which is the D(FEBRUARY(-1)) and D(FEBRUARY(-2))
.Therefore, the rest are less than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:27
MARCH(-1) -0.234782 0.235538 -0.996792 0.3449

D(MARCH(-1)) -0.826676 0.294062 -2.811231 0.0203
D(MARCH(-2)) -0.552432 0.262363 -2.105601 0.0645
C 14.74369 10.75785 1.370505 0.2037
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(MARCH(-1))
the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:37
APRIL(-1) -0.136861 0.194335 -0.704254 0.4991

D(APRIL(-1)) -1.023443 0.292102 -3.503724 0.0067
D(APRIL(-2)) -0.460679 0.262059 -1.757926 0.1126
C 10.40478 8.897568 1.169396 0.2723
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(APRIL (-1))

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:39
MAY(-1) -0.264171 0.271016 -0.974740 0.3506

D(MAY(-1)) -0.321470 0.265742 -1.209711 0.2517
C 14.35757 13.07472 1.098116 0.2956
seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:41
JUNE(-1) -0.465289 0.235679 -1.974249 0.0700

C 25.26275 12.79374 1.974619 0.0699
seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:43
JULY(-1) -0.062126 0.338054 -0.183774 0.8575

D(JULY(-1)) -0.764334 0.295115 -2.589951 0.0251
C 7.600086 19.26481 0.394506 0.7007
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(JULY (-1)) the
researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:45
AUGUST(-1) -0.191435 0.293999 -0.651143 0.5283

D(AUGUST(-1)) -0.643097 0.244738 -2.627698 0.0235
C 14.39943 16.46526 0.874534 0.4005
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(AUGUST(-1))

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:47
SEPTEMBER(-1) -0.586073 0.288290 -2.032930 0.0630

C 34.00090 15.89021 2.139739 0.0519
seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:48
OCTOBER(-1) -0.607565 0.303568 -2.001412 0.0667

C 37.79378 17.86034 2.116073 0.0542
seasonality.
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:49
NOVEMBER(-1) -0.026189 0.271889 -0.096322 0.9250

D(NOVEMBER(-1)) -0.717426 0.275815 -2.601118 0.0246
C 4.778413 15.75505 0.303294 0.7673
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(NOVEMBER (-
1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:51
DECEMBER(-1) -0.144130 0.241904 -0.595816 0.5660

D(DECEMBER(-1)) -0.862202 0.335707 -2.568319 0.0303
D(DECEMBER(-2)) -0.238495 0.286428 -0.832652 0.4266
C 12.94088 13.86383 0.933428 0.3750
Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the D(DECEMBER(-
1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.
Table 30.Seasonal Test for Sweet Potato Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 21:59
JANUARY(-1) 0.114236 0.078036 1.463902 0.1712

D(JANUARY(-1)) -0.513641 0.276575 -1.857147 0.0902
C -0.381701 1.467362 -0.260127 0.7996
Table 30 shows the seasonality test for Sweet Potato. The result performed seasonal
adjustment. Since, the p-value are only one greater than 0.05 the researchers concluded that there
is no seasonality.
Table 31.Seasonality Test for Sweet Potato Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:03
FEBRUARY(-1) 0.044817 0.045951 0.975332 0.3472

C 0.347191 0.862986 0.402313 0.6940
is no seasonality.
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:06
MARCH(-1) 0.025536 0.055496 0.460137 0.6530

C 0.651905 1.009402 0.645833 0.5296
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:07
APRIL(-1) 0.052080 0.049150 1.059608 0.3086

C 0.281621 0.900725 0.312661 0.7595
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:09
MAY(-1) 0.066619 0.046118 1.444521 0.1723

C 0.074282 0.863359 0.086039 0.9327
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:11
JUNE(-1) 0.060518 0.062524 0.967918 0.3507

C 0.203736 1.210542 0.168301 0.8689
is no seasonality.
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:13
JULY(-1) 0.169218 0.069633 2.430135 0.0334

D(JULY(-1)) -0.550058 0.317274 -1.733703 0.1109
C -1.335702 1.327045 -1.006523 0.3358
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and only one are less than 0.05 which is the
JULY(-1)the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:16
AUGUST(-1) 0.253184 0.089212 2.838017 0.0161

D(AUGUST(-1)) -0.706522 0.299058 -2.362492 0.0376
C -2.827577 1.805559 -1.566040 0.1456
adjustment. Since, the p-value are only one greater than 0.05 and the rest are less than 0.05 which is
the AUDGUST(-1) and D(AUGUST(-1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:19
SEPTEMBER(-1) 0.199411 0.069279 2.878392 0.0150

D(SEPTEMBER(-1)) -0.636165 0.279643 -2.274915 0.0439
C -1.976804 1.352813 -1.461254 0.1719
adjustment. Since, the p-value are only one greater than 0.05 and the rest are less than 0.05 which is
the SEPTEMBER(-1) and D(SEPTEMBER (-1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:21
OCTOBER(-1) 0.199202 0.075348 2.643756 0.0267

D(OCTOBER(-1)) -0.990914 0.331835 -2.986163 0.0153
D(OCTOBER(-2)) -0.317144 0.295906 -1.071774 0.3117
C -0.967787 1.194725 -0.810050 0.4388
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and the rest are less than 0.05 which is the
OCTOBER(-1) and D(OCTOBER (-1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:24
NOVEMBER(-1) 0.150441 0.071280 2.110565 0.0640

D(NOVEMBER(-1)) -1.033508 0.302715 -3.414135 0.0077
D(NOVEMBER(-2)) -0.276418 0.237879 -1.162012 0.2751
C 0.120945 1.264102 0.095677 0.9259
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and the rest are less than 0.05 which is the
NOVEMBER(-1) and D(NOVEMBER (-1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:28
DECEMBER(-1) 0.155997 0.084977 1.835765 0.0996

D(DECEMBER(-1)) -0.913087 0.304135 -3.002241 0.0149
D(DECEMBER(-2)) -0.324713 0.272058 -1.193544 0.2632
C -0.180127 1.541751 -0.116833 0.9096
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 there is only one are less than 0.05 which is the
D(DECEMBER (-1)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.
Table 42.Seasonality Test for White/Irish Potato Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:31
JANUARY(-1) 0.050202 0.264210 0.190009 0.8535

D(JANUARY(-1)) -0.933210 0.364295 -2.561685 0.0306
D(JANUARY(-2)) -1.090102 0.383210 -2.844662 0.0193
C 4.647771 12.91531 0.359865 0.7272
Table 42 shows the seasonality test for White/Irish Potato. The result performed seasonal
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 and there are two less than 0.05 which is the
JANUARY(-1) and D(JANUARY(-2)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:36
FEBRUARY(-1) 0.119793 0.237445 0.504509 0.6260

D(FEBRUARY(-1)) -1.121793 0.323909 -3.463299 0.0071
D(FEBRUARY(-2)) -1.139513 0.305242 -3.733146 0.0047
C 1.798860 10.77012 0.167023 0.8710
D(FEBRUARY(-1)) and D(FEBRUARY(-2)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:37
MARCH(-1) 0.203638 0.209166 0.973573 0.3557

D(MARCH(-1)) -1.327210 0.403522 -3.289066 0.0094
D(MARCH(-2)) -1.043737 0.348275 -2.996872 0.0150
C -1.696656 8.685888 -0.195335 0.8495
D(MARCH(-1) and D(MARCH(-2)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:37
APRIL(-1) -0.146566 0.131641 -1.113380 0.2857

C 8.132683 6.022265 1.350436 0.1999
is no seasonality.
Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:38
MAY(-1) -0.012771 0.194862 -0.065538 0.9492

D(MAY(-1)) -0.503775 0.302819 -1.663615 0.1305
D(MAY(-2)) -0.758220 0.298018 -2.544206 0.0315
C 5.215884 8.657737 0.602453 0.5617
adjustment. Since, the p-value are greater than 0.05 there is only one are less than 0.05 which is the
D(MAY(-2)) the researchers concluded that there is a seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:38
JUNE(-1) -0.250324 0.167264 -1.496581 0.1584

C 12.90304 7.771379 1.660328 0.1208
is no seasonality.
Table 48.Seasonality Test for White/Irish Potato

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:49
JULY(-1) -0.160955 0.144556 -1.113447 0.2857

C 9.109808 6.722551 1.355112 0.1985
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:51
AUGUST(-1) -0.093927 0.158841 -0.591327 0.5663

D(AUGUST(-1)) -0.443404 0.286937 -1.545299 0.1505
C 6.986811 7.404844 0.943546 0.3657
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:53
SEPTEMBER(-1) -0.138864 0.185952 -0.746773 0.4709

D(SEPTEMBER(-1)) -0.400238 0.294156 -1.360631 0.2009
C 9.217771 8.925220 1.032778 0.3239
is no seasonality.

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:54
OCTOBER(-1) -0.405377 0.210919 -1.921953 0.0768

C 22.56106 11.26389 2.002955 0.0665
is no seasonality.
Table 52.Seasonal Test for White/Irish Potato Price Index

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:56
NOVEMBER(-1) -0.156340 0.165139 -0.946718 0.3641

D(NOVEMBER(-1)) -0.376342 0.268798 -1.400092 0.1891
C 11.11457 8.764987 1.268065 0.2310
is no seasonality

Date: 02/25/19 Time: 22:58
DECEMBER(-1) -0.100293 0.189165 -0.530185 0.6065

D(DECEMBER(-1)) -0.514311 0.267812 -1.920418 0.0811
C 8.989424 10.39529 0.864760 0.4056
is no seasonality.
Chapter 5
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This chapter presents the summary of the findings, conclusion and recommendation based
on the study.
Summary of Findings
1. What are the movements of the time series analysis on price index of crops(Carrots, , Gabi
Cebu,for ginataan[Taro(cocoyam)],Sweet Potato, White/Irish Potato)over the year 2000 to 2015?
The mean of price index of carrots 53.31255 thousand metric tons. For the past years, its
production reached the highest production on the second quarter of 2015 which is 87.15 thousand
metric tons, and obtained its lowest production on the second quarter of 2000 with 30.66 thousand
metric tons. This also reveals that carrot harvested is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater than 2.720131,
and smaller skewed. As per Jarque- Bera statistics, carrot is not normally distributed because
the p-value, 0. 017751, is less than the significance level, 0.05
The mean of price index Sweet Potato 20.14thousand metric tons. For the past years, its
production reached the highest production on the second quarter of 2015 which is 37.78 thousand
metric tons, and obtained its lowest production on the second quarter of 2000 with 10.78thousand
metric tons. This also reveals Sweet Potatoharvest is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater than 2.276966
and skewed is 0.537387. As per Jarque-Bera statistics, Price Index Sweet Potato is not normally
distributed because the p-value, 0.000000, is less than the significance level, 0.05.
The mean of price index White/ Irish Potato 46.5050thousand metric tons. For the past years, its
production reached the highest production on the second quarter of 2015 which is 98.04thousand
metric tons, and obtained its lowest production on the second quarter of 2000 with 28.15 thousand
metric tons. This also reveals that White/ Irish Potato harvested is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater
than 2.584646 and skewed is 0.535830. As per Jarque- Bera statistics, carrot is not normally
distributed because the p-value, 0.005073, is less than the significance level, 0.05
The mean of price index Gabi20.00401 metric tons. For the past years, its production reached
the highest production on the second quarter of 2015 which is 42.58 thousand metric tons, and
obtained its lowest production on the second quarter of 2000 with 13.64 thousand metric tons.
This also reveals Gabi harvested is leptokurtic, kurtosis greater than 3.160141and skewed
is1.066286. As per Jarque-Bera statistics, Price Index Gabi is not normally distributed because
the p-value, 0.000000, is less than the significance level, 0.05.
2. What model could rightfully predict the price index of crops?
3. Is there a significant difference between the price index of crops and actual crops?
Conclusions
Recommendation
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal
CARROT
January February March April May June
2000 36.73 31.74 30.66 37.81 50.21 49.03

2001 47.26 38.17 34.48 35.19 36.84 38.17
2002 39.48 34.77 33.87 33.09 40.35 41.04
2003 37.07 36.87 39.1 44.23 50.61 51.85
2004 38.43 35.73 34.1 33.84 34.47 35.93
2005 46.59 43.7 44.05 40.81 38.5 41.39
2006 55.34 48.62 42.27 41.66 41.89 40.51
2007 44.99 40.77 41.22 44.17 50.01 59.86
2008 56.24 48.78 45.76 44.88 45.8 47.8
2009 53.4 50.59 51.87 54.04 57.51 63.28
2010 48.4 42.78 41.48 44.05 48.86 60.47
2011 60.39 62.86 65.19 61.37 52.66 52.84
2012 76.91 65.91 56.39 54.91 53.47 60.58
2013 49.87 46.96 49.6 53.27 63.66 67.97
2014 72.94 61.96 56.72 54.88 57.68 81.93
2015 62.95 55.61 55.44 58.25 57.84 59.16
July August September October November December
52.89 47.97 44.14 46.99 50.66 51.99

41.54 39.39 46 53.08 50.65 47.38
62.97 51.11 40.06 38.01 37.28 39.58
45.83 41.65 40.31 45.24 45.53 44.99
49.23 65.9 65.03 63.85 47.82 46.95
49.14 45.36 41.29 48.39 50.99 55.1
45.98 47.79 49.67 56.76 54.85 51.03
60.9 48.43 43.67 47.58 54.1 62.32
50.09 56.67 64.39 68.83 65.65 61.43
59.8 60.55 65.72 80.33 70.56 63.63
73.24 67.92 60.23 57.58 56.84 59.25
53.85 55.5 55.97 67.27 79.02 81.32
70.3 76.39 72.22 65.25 58.63 55.28
62.61 60.41 60.4 66.09 69.79 72.6
87.15 69.87 62.29 62.01 66.86 70.4
71.27 76.25 78.62 86.98 84.75 72.95
SWEET POTATO
2000 11.81 11.42 10.89 10.78 10.92 11.16

2001 13.88 12.98 12.31 12.65 12.66 12.93
2002 13.33 12.2 12.32 12.61 12.91 14.63
2003 12.83 12.21 11.49 11.81 12.39 13.25
2004 14.16 13.16 12.47 12.51 12.93 14.03
2005 15.42 14.15 13.69 13.84 13.49 13.92
2006 14.69 14.45 14.17 14.72 15.92 16.67
2007 17.37 17.03 16.75 16.58 16.93 17.41
2008 19.11 18.85 18.44 17.82 18.11 19.07
2009 20.48 20.12 20.21 20.18 20.61 21.13
2010 22.59 21.43 20.15 20.82 21.36 22.21
2011 22.04 22.7 21.82 21.79 22.13 22.63
2012 27.12 25.74 25.24 25.03 24.72 24.75
2013 27.61 26.33 25.26 25.71 26.73 27.74
2014 28.52 27.04 26.05 26.51 27.27 27.79
2015 30.7 28.72 27.34 28.72 29.96 31.12
12.59 13.72 15.09 14.83 15.57 15.17

13.79 14.73 14.9 13.85 12.43 13.7
15.65 16.09 15.37 14.32 13.74 13.27
14.85 16.22 15.44 15.32 14.75 14.89
15.57 16.02 16.12 15.7 15.29 16.16
14.42 14.87 15.03 15.6 14.95 14.97
17.1 19.13 19.69 19.41 18.75 17.87
17.98 18.92 19.64 19.51 18.88 18.95
19.94 21.55 21.62 21.27 20.73 20.62
21.82 21.96 22.98 23.71 23.7 23.18
23.25 25.73 25.06 24 23.21 22.49
24.11 24.8 25.71 27.2 27.36 27.88
25.24 27.19 27.81 27.79 27.21 27.58
28.38 29.75 30.5 30.72 29.78 29.16
29.37 32.31 33.29 32.55 31.19 31.29
33.49 37.78 36.1 35.36 34.05 33.74
WHITE/IRISH POTATO
2000 32.35 29.25 28.15 31.13 29.56 29.80

2001 45.25 41.42 37.51 39.01 37.11 35.20
2002 35.86 32.96 32.14 31.78 34.69 33.82
2003 30.02 29.78 31.95 33.18 33.30 34.48
2004 36.81 35.10 33.54 33.43 34.08 33.81
2005 35.69 33.42 32.19 32.57 32.82 33.49
2006 39.91 41.11 40.51 40.15 38.60 37.19
2007 46.14 45.15 42.83 41.49 42.08 41.94
2008 50.38 50.00 47.76 44.78 43.57 43.58
2009 53.84 49.95 47.56 47.94 50.18 54.27
2010 59.94 50.53 46.92 51.46 65.59 68.94
2011 76.07 69.56 59.47 56.20 51.55 49.25
2012 58.87 52.35 50.44 52.01 51.03 52.49
2013 54.91 52.72 57.29 64.29 67.11 64.59
2014 93.04 84.53 73.27 65.81 60.16 59.70
2015 60.80 56.37 53.55 55.62 54.69 54.99
31.42 32.97 36.20 35.44 36.93 42.40

36.69 34.28 34.43 34.31 34.57 37.97
38.47 34.06 32.14 31.18 30.33 30.58
32.19 30.35 29.89 32.72 37.37 38.98
34.82 36.85 45.26 59.40 45.29 38.73
33.61 33.28 33.29 36.66 35.64 38.39
37.73 38.10 40.97 46.29 46.72 45.94
40.97 40.49 43.22 45.39 46.93 49.30
45.16 49.45 54.10 63.76 63.56 58.77
55.56 57.37 59.17 74.28 68.30 74.29
63.39 57.96 54.30 53.85 55.29 65.30
48.49 48.41 50.51 59.32 67.69 66.00
57.30 66.07 65.83 67.22 64.00 58.82
60.64 60.16 62.21 65.81 71.31 84.76
60.75 62.82 65.48 66.16 65.28 65.22
59.07 57.84 58.61 60.99 65.02 76.56
GABI
2000 14.44 14.27 14.02 14.36 13.64 14.36

2001 15.09 14.19 14.34 14.43 14.46 14.66
2002 15.07 14.88 14.96 15.2 15.15 16.13
2003 16.98 17.14 16.92 16.81 17.33 17.98
2004 18.34 17.68 17.05 17.25 17.58 17.97
2005 18.72 18.35 17.97 18.46 18.44 18.54
2006 19.65 19.37 19.11 19.02 19.15 19.2
2007 19.43 19.2 19.08 19.27 19.77 20.15
2008 21.45 21.15 20.65 20.43 20.88 20.1
2009 21.5 21.28 20.87 20.89 20.82 20.75
2010 21.55 21.46 21.42 22 22.94 23.42
2011 26.91 26.6 25.83 25.46 24.95 25.52
2012 26 25.48 25.33 25.69 25.52 25.54
2013 28.86 28.04 28.09 27.79 28.66 29.23
2014 37 36.52 35.37 35.49 36.65 36.24
2015 39.78 38.09 36.26 36.2 37.16 37.52
14.96 14.82 14.51 14.76 15.38 15.41

15.56 15.22 14.69 14.9 15.2 15.22
16.89 17.27 17.52 17.54 17.23 16.96
18.84 18.53 18.63 18.82 19.08 18.7
18.39 18.43 18.68 17.98 18.31 18.68
19.42 19.71 19.94 20.12 19.98 19.62
19.25 19.53 19.35 19.53 19.18 19.8
20.39 20.49 20.77 21.22 21.68 21.73
21.03 21.16 21.29 21.45 21.31 21.15
20.89 21.19 21.58 22.71 22.23 25.99
23.69 24.97 25.48 26.37 27.34 26.83
25.59 25.42 25.85 27.19 26.81 26.31
25.63 27.21 27.67 27.76 27.95 28.6
29.63 30.85 36 37.09 36.94 37.85
37.93 39 39.38 38.85 39.25 39.26
38.48 40.34 41.09 42.06 42.58 41.82
Caarot
Probability
Interpret -5.860926 -3.464827 -2.876595 -2.574874 0.0000
Trend and
Level -9.007084 -4.007084 -3.433651 -3.140697 0.0000
Intercept
None 0.546611 -2.57759 -1.942564 -1.615553 0.8300
Interpret -9.149846 -3.465977 -2.877099 -2.575143 0.0000
Trend and
-9.139165 -4.008706 -3.434433 -3.141157 0.0000
First Difference Intercept
-
None -2.57759 -1.942564 -1.615553 0.0000
9.1235553
White
Probability
Interpret -1.561687 -3.465392 -2.876843 -2.575006 0.0000
Trend and
Level -6.954906 -4.007084 -3.140697 -3.140697 0.0000
Intercept
None 0.529325 -2.577387 -1.615571 -1.615571 0.0000
Interpret -9.842485 -3.465392 -2.876843 -2.575006 0.0000
Trend and
First Difference -9.812123 4.007882 -3.434036 -3.140923 0.0000
Intercept
None -9.802884 -2.577387 -1.942536 -1.615571 0.0000
s.w
Probability
Interpret 1.047065 -3.464643 -2.876515 -2.574831 0.9970
Trend and
Level -1.191494 -4.006824 -3.433525 -3.140623 0.9088
Intercept
None 2.737823 -2.577125 -1.942499 -1.615594 0.9986
Interpret -13.05514 -3.464827 -2.876595 -2.574874 0.0000
Trend and
Intercept
None -12.68008 -2.57719 -1.942508 -1.615589 0.0000
Gabi
Probability
Interpret 2.266078 -3.466377 -2.877274 -2.575236 1.0000
Trend and
Level -1.202042 -4.009271 -3.434706 -3.141318 0.9066
Intercept
None 5.480054 -2.57773 -1.942584 -1.615641 1.0000
Interpret -9.871732 -3.466377 -2.877274 -2.575236 0.0000
Trend and
Intercept
None 9.70612 -2.57773 -1.942584 -1.615641 0.0000

THESIS

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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON PRICE INDEX OF ROOTCROPS FROM 2000-2015

Presented to the Faculty of the College of Science

Polytechnic University of the Philippines

Sta. Mesa, Manila

In Partial Fulfillment of the of the Requirements for the Degree

Bachelor in Applied Statistics

Damaso, Klessa Louisse

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

themselves through agriculture. The country's agriculture sector is made up of 4 sub-sectors:

Statistics (BAS) have multi-crop responsibilities.

on costs and returns of production.

of minerals like copper, calcium, potassium, manganese and phosphorus. Potassium is an

enzyme, superoxide dismutase (Organic Farming 2007).

commercial taro cultivars.

growth and development of quality potato tubers.

season’s potato crop.

between indexes of prices, quantities and expenditures.

1. The quantity of the good or service produced

2. The form of good or service created

3. The temporal and spatial distribution of the good or service produced.

The process indicates the methods used in the study.

data. And determining the best model with ARIMA model.

Our Framework of the Study

2. What model could rightfully predict the price index of crops?

Significance of the Study

index of root crops from 2000 to 2015.

analysis on price index of crops as a foundation.

price index of root crops.

average terms and differencing operation.

Box-Jenkins Procedure – Applies autoregressive moving average

series model to past values of a time series.

summaries about the sample and the measures.

Jarque-Bera Test - Is used to know if the data have a normal distribution.

measurements made over time interval.

if those differences could have happened by chance.

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

the treatment of the sample.

Based on our research that there is a relatively thin literature on cooperatives in

the contracts in three categories: i) Contract/business which is profit driven,

ii) Projects initiated and run by NGOs, and

iii) Process oriented human capacity development projects.

uncertainty in trade data is linked to discrepancies in bilateral-commodity trade data. These

estimation can create problems especially in countries prone to drought or flooding

consecutively and planted together at the same time).

analyze the time series analysis on price index of crops.

that are developing (Philippines, 2000)

Data Gathering Procedure

The researchers collected monthly price index of crops(Sweet Potato, Gabi/Taro,

these will be analyzed using the statistical treatments.

variables in this study.

Time series is a sequence of data points, typically consisting of successive measurements

meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data.

researchers used the well-known test called Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.

methodology, the forecasting.

Seasonality is a component of time series which is defined as the repetitive and

PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA

Descriptive Analysis of the Given Time Series

shows the trends of every harvest of crops from 2000-2015.

Figure 1. Price Index of Carrot

Figure 2. Price Index of White/ Irish Potato

value, 0.005073, is less than the significance level, 0.05

Figure 3. Price Index Sweet Potato

is less than the significance level, 0.05.