Int J Biometeorol (2015) 59:477–480

DOI 10.1007/s00484-014-0885-6

SHORT COMMUNICATION

Climate sensitivity and variation in first flowering of 26 Narcissus

cultivars
Anna Bock & Tim H. Sparks & Nicole Estrella & Nigel Jee &
Andrew Casebow & Michael Leuchner & Annette Menzel

Received: 20 December 2013 / Revised: 29 July 2014 / Accepted: 2 August 2014 / Published online: 26 August 2014
# ISB 2014

Abstract The first flowering dates of 26 Narcissus cultivars
were recorded over a 27-year period on the island of Guern-
sey, within the English Channel. We analysed flowering
trends over time and relationships with climate variables.
The study revealed that earlier flowering cultivars advanced
most and were more variable than later flowering Narcissus.
We furthermore discovered a strong relationship between
flowering and climate variables, with temperature appearing
to be the main driver. Whilst the first flowering date averaged
over all cultivars did show a significant advance, this was
significant for only one of the individual cultivars. This is
likely because temperatures from December to March had not
Nigel Jee (Deceased) formerly of Castel, Guernsey GY5 7JP.
A. Bock (*) : T. H. Sparks : N. Estrella : M. Leuchner : A. Menzel
Chair of Ecoclimatology, Technische Universität München,
Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
e-mail: anna.bock@wzw.tum.de
A. Bock : T. H. Sparks : M. Leuchner : A. Menzel
Institute for Advanced Study, Technische Universität München,
Lichtenbergstrasse 2a, 85748 Garching, Germany
T. H. Sparks
Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska
Polskiego 71C, 60-625 Poznań, Poland
T. H. Sparks
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street,
Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
T. H. Sparks
sigma, Faculty of Engineering and Computing, Coventry University,
Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
N. Jee
Castel, Guernsey GY5 7JP, UK
A. Casebow
States of Guernsey, Raymond Falla House, Longue Rue, St Martins,
Guernsey GY1 6AF, UK
significantly increased in Guernsey during the study period
(1985 to 2011).
Keywords Narcissus . First flowering date . Long-term data .
Climate sensitivity
Introduction
The genus Narcissus, also known as daffodil, symbolises the
arrival of spring in many parts of Europe and is also a major
commercial crop. Flowering date is mainly dependent on
chilling (winter dormancy) and rising temperatures in spring
(Rees and Hanks 1984; Hanks 1996); increases in spring
temperature result in earlier flowering (forcing), whilst a cold
winter period is necessary for rest completion (chilling).
Narcissus originating from warmer climates, e.g. tazetta cul-
tivars, do not require chilling (Okubo and Sochacki 2013) and
hence should only respond to spring temperatures. Studies on
Narcissus have, so far, focused predominantly on standardised
commercial production, experimenting with management
techniques to achieve highest yield at maximum quality (e.g.
Rees and Hanks 1972; Mcintosh and Allen 1992; Mathew
2002; Veatch-Blohm et al. 2013). But how does climate
change impact on daffodil flowering phenology? No long-
term studies on first flowering dates of a large number of
Narcissus cultivars under (almost) natural conditions have
been reported.
In this study, we use a 27 year (1985 to 2011) record of
flowering observations from the island of Guernsey where
first flowering dates (FFD) of 26 Narcissus cultivars were
recorded by the same observer within a single location. We
examine whether trends in flowering differ among cultivars
and, if so, what drives such differences.
Table 1 Summary data and multiple regression model summaries and regression coefficients of first flowering date (FFD) on the significant mean temperature and precipitation sum variables (1985–2011)
478

Cultivar Summary data Time trend Climate relationships

FFD Days year−1 Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm)

Regression coefficients in the months preceding Regression coefficients in the months preceding
mean FFD (days °C−1) mean FFD (day mm−1)

Years Mn SD Min Max R2 b R2 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st 0th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st 0th

N. tazetta 1994–2011 01 J 33.4 07 N 22 M 0.10 −1.99 0.00

N. tazetta ‘Soleil d’Or’ 1985–2012 09 J 28.1 05 D 30 M 0.55*** −2.58 0.66*** −15.8 6.2 −0.3 −0.2
N. tazetta ‘papyraceus’ 1985–2012 15 J 23.8 30 N 09 M 0.14 −1.13 0.43 10.6 −8.0 0.3 −0.2 −0.3
N. tazetta ‘Grand Primo’ 1986–2012 25 J 26.6 26 N 10 M 0.09 −0.98 0.75*** 14.3 −5.8 −11.0 −10.8
N. ‘Magnificence’ 1989–2011 10 F 18.0 18 J 23 M 0.12 0.95 0.82** 9.5 −3.9 −6.9 −3.1 −4.1 −0.1 −0.2 0.2
N. pseudonarcissus ‘Lobularis’ 1995–2011 10 F 13.9 23 J 12 M 0.23 −1.31 0.88* 19.1 9.8 −13.9 −18.1 5.3 0.2 −0.4 0.2 0.5 −0.3
N. cyclamineus ‘Golden Spur’ 1987–2011 14 F 13.0 24 J 18 M 0.03 0.29 0.87*** 6.0 4.9 −2.4 −5.5 −1.5 0.0
N. cyclamineus ‘February Gold’ 1990–2011 14 F 12.7 17 J 12 M 0.09 0.57 0.44** −3.6 −3.6 0.2
N. cyclamineus ‘Tête-à-Tête’ 1986–2011 19 F 14.0 23 J 29 M 0.04 −0.37 0.86*** 6.1 2.3 −5.6 −3.5
N. ‘Van Sion’ 1988–2011 19 F 11.9 31 J 14 M 0.02 0.24 0.79*** 3.0 4.6 −2.9 −5.8 −1.6
N. ‘Princeps’ 1986–2011 20 F 14.2 30 J 29 M 0.04 −0.37 0.76*** 4.5 −5.6 −3.4
N. pseudonarcissus ‘Dutch Master’ 1985–2011 23 F 17.6 24 J 07 A 0.01 −0.23 0.46** 7.2 −4.8
N. tazetta ‘Scilly White’ 1996–2011 24 F 17.4 02 F 28 M 0.13 1.30 0.71** 5.4 −5.5 −7.2
N. pseudonarcissus ‘Fortune’ 1986–2011 01 M 14.1 08 F 30 M 0.01 0.17 0.83*** 5.0 1.8 −4.5 −5.7
N. pseudonarcissus ‘King Alfred’ 1988–2011 08 M 15.0 30 J 28 M 0.12 −0.81 0.49 −3.5 4.7 −6.8 −0.2
N. ‘Sir Watkin’ 1985–2011 09 M 14.1 12 F 27 A 0.02 −0.24 0.82*** 2.6 −5.8 −3.5 −0.1 0.1 0.1
N. tazetta ‘Cragford’ 1988–2011 12 M 11.9 20 F 10 A 0.12 0.58 0.87*** 4.0 6.3 −5.3 −4.3 −2.7 −3.3 0.1 −0.1 0.1
N. ‘Red Devon’ 1990–2011 12 M 10.6 25 F 02 A 0.20* 0.72 0.85*** 4.2 −4.9 −2.9 0.1 −0.1 0.1 0.1
N. ‘Empress’ 1988–2011 14 M 6.7 27 F 26 M 0.01 −0.12 0.72 5.6 −3.0 4.9 −7.4 0.1 0.0 −0.1 0.1
N. ‘Ice Follies’ 1988–2011 15 M 11.6 15 F 02 A 0.06 −0.41 0.34 −5.1 0.1 −0.1
N. ‘Emperor’ 1986–2011 18 M 11.4 27 F 27 A 0.00 −0.03 0.79*** 4.4 −2.3 3.1 −2.1 −2.2 −6.2
N. ‘barrii Conspicuus’ 1988–2010 19 M 13.4 06 M 22 A 0.00 −0.07 0.71*** −2.0 −10.4 −0.1 −0.1
N. ‘White Lion’ 1994–2011 21 M 10.5 06 M 15 A 0.00 −0.02 0.75** 5.4 −6.3 −7.5 −0.1 0.1 −0.1
N. tazetta ‘Geranium’ 1991–2011 24 M 8.6 10 M 15 A 0.00 0.08 0.77** 4.7 −1.4 −4.1 0.0 0.1 −0.1
N. ‘Sempre Avanti’ 1985–2011 29 M 8.5 10 M 15 A 0.13 −0.40 0.53** 2.0 −6.4 0.1
N. ‘Geronimo’ 1988–2010 30 M 11.4 11 M 20 A 0.05 0.39 0.75* 4.3 −3.7 −7.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 0.2

The time trends over the study period are summarised as regressions on year. Climate models presented are the minimum adequate models retained after AIC evaluation (days °C−1 /d mm−1 ). Only months
with significant coefficients are shown. Cultivars are ordered by mean FFD. Results in bold are significant (p<0.05)
N November, D December, J January, F February, M March, A April Mn mean FFD, SD standard deviation, b slope/regression coefficients (days year−1 )
*p<0.05;**p<0.01; ***p<0.001
Int J Biometeorol (2015) 59:477–480
Int J Biometeorol (2015) 59:477–480
Material and methods
The records consist of weekly observations by a single ob-
server (NJ) on flowering status from which FFD were derived
and converted to day of the year (DOY). The observations
include Narcissus plants of former outdoor flower production
which have become naturalised. Thus, no lifting or storage
practices were applied. For each cultivar, flowering was de-
fined as anthers visible and at least some flowers not senesced.
Climate data (monthly mean temperature and precipitation
sums) were obtained from the local climate station (Meteoro-
logical Observatory of Guernsey Airport) which is located
approx. 3.3 km south of the study area. Adjusted long-term
means for each Narcissus cultivar were calculated from a two
way ANOVA (factors: cultivar and year) for the period 1985–
2011. Multiple linear regression techniques were used to relate
FFD to year and climate variables. Mean temperature and
precipitation sum for the month of the cultivar’s mean FFD
plus the five preceding months were included as potential
explanatory variables. A stepwise methodology was applied
to select the most significant climate predictors. Final model
selection was based on minimum adequate models retained
after AIC evaluation. Residuals from regressions were tested
to confirm normality.
Results and discussion
The majority of the Narcissus cultivars did not display a
significant change in FFD; however, the dataset clearly dem-
onstrated a very high dependence on climate variables of the
previous 6 months.
Time trends
Adjusted mean FFD ranged from 1 January for Narcissus
tazetta to 30 March for N. ‘Geronimo’. The largest number
of Narcissus cultivars flowered in February with the overall
mean FFD being 25 February. The most consistent cultivar
Fig. 1 a Relationship between
mean FFD (DOY) and the
interannual SD of FFD (days) for
each cultivar (R2 =0.78, p<0.001,
b=−3.29). b Relationships
between regression coefficient of
FFD on year (days year−1) and
mean FFD (DOY) (R2 =0.24,
p<0.05)
479
was N. ‘Empress’ with a standard deviation of 6.7 days. The
most variable cultivar, N. tazetta, had a standard deviation of
33.4 days (Table 1). The negative relationship between mean
FFD and the interannual standard deviation of FFD (R2 =0.78,
p<0.001, slope=−3.29) suggested that earlier flowering cul-
tivars have a higher variability in FFD than later flowering
cultivars (Fig. 1a).
Sixteen out of 26 cultivars displayed negative regression
coefficients of FFD on year. However, only N. tazetta ‘Soleil
d’Or’ was significant, advancing by 2.6 days year−1. There
was one significant delay for N. ‘Red Devon’ with a
delay of 0.7 days year−1 (Table 1). FFD averaged across all
cultivars significantly (p=0.009) advanced by 0.2 days year−1
(R2 =0.24).
There was a significant positive relationship between mean
FFDs and the regression coefficients of FFD on year (R2 =
0.24, p < 0.01; slope = +0.38). Thus, earlier flowering
Narcissus had a tendency to advance FFD, whilst later
flowering Narcissus tended to have no trend or were slightly
delayed (Fig. 1b).
Climate relationships
During the period 1985–2011, mean annual temperature sig-
nificantly (p<0.05) increased by 0.5 °C (calculated from the
regression coefficient of temperature on year) in Guernsey.
Months with significant increases in temperature were April,
June and November. No significant changes in precipitation
were revealed.
Apart from N. tazetta, temperature of the 3 months prior to
mean FFD had negative regression coefficients with FFD for
each cultivar, implying that increases in (forcing) temperature
resulted in earlier flowering. Overall, increases in temperature
of 1 °C in these 3 months resulted in an advance of approx-
imately 5 days. In contrast, the temperature of the period 4–
6 months before mean FFD showed overall positive regres-
sion coefficients. This positive relationship supports the con-
cept of a chilling requirement since cold temperatures were
associated with earlier flowering. Increases of 1 °C during
480
these months were associated with an overall delay of approx-
imately 5 days (Table 1). Thus, these results confirm that, after
sufficient chilling, the beginning of flowering is dependent on
suitable growing temperatures (Hanks 1996).
The FFD of all cultivars, except N. tazetta, were sensitive
to temperature, especially with the temperature of the average
month of FFD and the two previous months. Climate ex-
plained between 44 and 88 % of the variability in FFD. Only
N. tazetta ‘Soleil d’Or’ significantly advanced FFD over the
observation period. These results reflect that, despite a signif-
icant annual increase in temperature, temperature changed at
different rates in different months. The only month of the
regression model with a significant increase in temperature
over the observation period was November, which might be
expected to cause a delay in FFD. Precipitation was a signif-
icant variable for only 14 cultivars, and generally at lower
significance.
This study shows relationships and climate sensitivity of a
large number of Narcissus cultivars over a 27 year period on
the island of Guernsey. We identified significant climate rela-
tionships, especially to temperature. However, since the aver-
age temperature in Guernsey during December−March had
not significantly increased over the observation period, the
FFD of the cultivars showed little change. Narcissus cultivars
are used widely in landscapes and gardens, as fresh cut
flowers and as flowering potted plants which each demand
different characteristics, including flowering time and dura-
tion. We found that the earlier flowering cultivars were more
Int J Biometeorol (2015) 59:477–480
variable and had advanced most. Thus, careful cultivar selec-
tion can extend the season of Narcissus, especially for land-
scape design uses.
Acknowledgments We regret to report that Nigel Jee died in Septem-
ber 2013. Only his commitment to recording over 27 years made this
manuscript possible. We thank Tim Lillington and the Meteorological
Observatory of Guernsey Airport for Guernsey’s met records. With the
support of the Technische Universität München-Institute for Advanced
Study, funded by the German Excellence Initiative.
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