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Isoseismal map of the 2015 Nepal earthquake and its relationships with
ground-motion parameters, distance and magnitude
Sanjay K. Prajapati a,⇑, Harendra K. Dadhich a, Sumer Chopra b
a
National Center for Seismology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India
b
Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: A devastating earthquake of Mw 7.8 struck central Nepal on 25th April, 2015 (6:11:25 UT) which resulted
Received 2 November 2015 in more than 9000 deaths, and destroyed millions of houses. Standing buildings, roads and electrical
Received in revised form 25 April 2016 installations worth 25–30 billions of dollars are reduced to rubbles. The earthquake was widely felt in
Accepted 12 July 2016
the northern parts of India and moderate damage have been observed in the northern part of UP and
Available online 14 July 2016
Bihar region of India. Maximum intensity IX, according to the USGS report, was observed in the meizo-
seismal zone, surrounding the Kathmandu region. In the present study, we have compiled available infor-
Keywords:
mation from the print, electronic media and various reports of damages and other effects caused by the
Nepal
Intensity
event, and interpreted them to obtain Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) at over 175 locations spread
Ground motion over Nepal and surrounding Indian and Tibet region. We have also obtained a number of strong motion
Attenuation recordings from India and Nepal seismic network and developed an empirical relationship between the
Hazard MMI and peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV). We have used least square regres-
sion technique to derive the empirical relation between the MMI and ground motion parameters and
compared them with the empirical relationships available for other regions of the world. Further, seismic
intensity information available for historical earthquakes, which have occurred in the Nepal Himalaya
along with the present intensity data has been utilized for developing an attenuation relationship for
the studied region using two step regression analyses. The derived attenuation relationship is useful
for assessing damage of a potential future large earthquake (earthquake scenario-based planning pur-
poses) in the region.
Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction was a shallow-focus event (focal depth 15 km, IMD report), and
lasted for about 50 s. The event was widely felt in the northern part
On April 25, 2015 at 11:56 NST (06:11:26 UTC), MW 7.8 earth- of India (Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarak-
quake struck central Nepal region. The epicenter of the earthquake hand, Rajasthan, Chandigarh, NCT of Delhi). In Tibet, the earth-
estimated at 28.1°N and 84.6°E is placed 77 km WNW of the Kath- quake was felt as far as Shigatse and Lhasa. More than 8700
mandu, the capital city of the Nepal (Fig. 1). This earthquake has deaths were reported (Bilham, 2015) in Nepal, 80 in India, 25
occurred as a result of thrusting of the subducting Indian plate in China and 4 in Bangladesh. In Nepal, the worst affected is Sind-
under the Eurasian plate to the north (Avouac, 2003; Ader et al., hupal chowk, where most of the deaths are reported. In the capital
2012) and have caused severe ground shaking across Nepal, north city, Kathmandu, more than 15% of the total deaths were reported
India and adjoining areas. Such a large earthquake has struck Nepal (Rai et al., 2015). The preliminary estimates indicate that the level
after 81 years. The earthquake has damaged structures of commer- of ground motions were quite high in the epicentral area. Majority
cial, public and religious importance and disrupted the road net- of the damaged buildings were stone/brick masonry structures
work. It has destroyed swaths of oldest neighborhoods of with no seismic detailing, whereas most of RC buildings were
Kathmandu and severely damaged three UNESCO World Heritage undamaged. The collapse of structures was mainly associated with
sites. The earthquake was strong enough to be felt in most of the ground motions together with their low earthquake resistance.
parts of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Tibet. The earthquake The earthquake intensities qualitatively describe the effects of
ground shaking rather than the energy released. While an earth-
⇑ Corresponding author. quake is described by a single magnitude, it produces a range of
E-mail address: go2sanjay_p@yahoo.com (S.K. Prajapati). shaking intensities across an area. The intensity survey in any
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.013
1367-9120/Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37 25
Fig. 1. Geological map of the Central Himalaya and adjoining regions. The red star indicates the April 25, 2015 earthquake with its fault plane solution. Major Himalayan
thrusts viz. Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), Main Central Thrust (MCT) are also marked. Stars shows the historical earthquake occurred in Nepal
Himalaya region. Blue triangle and black rectangle shows the strong ground motion station and major cities of the Nepal and North India respectively. Red dashed line shows
the rupture dimension of April 25, 2015 earthquake. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this
article.)
region after an earthquake provides important information about which can be used to estimate intensity rapidly from future large
the directivity, fault strike and attenuation characteristics etc. earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya region. The motivation for car-
The event has presented an opportunity to validate our current rying out the present work is to find out if there is any strong
knowledge of earthquake risk in the region. The earthquake effects motion parameter that could be used as an analogue to seismic
are crucial in understanding the nature of the natural hazard, its intensity. Further the derived attenuation relationship will also
impact and extent of the risk exposure to the society. The intensity be useful for assessing damage from a potential future large earth-
map of a region also provide raw damage data of existing built quake in the region. Additionally, an attenuation relationship
environments and are useful for developing empirical correlation between MMI and epicentral distance is developed from the avail-
between the ground motion and damage severity for assessing able intensity values of the present and historical earthquakes. The
earthquake impact from future large events. relationship will help us in constraining the magnitudes of the
Extensive news articles were written in the early aftermath of historical earthquakes occurred in the region.
the Nepal earthquake and were published in both conventional
newspapers and on the web, describing the damage. We compiled
available accounts from various sources and interpreted them to 2. Tectonics and seismicity of Nepal Himalaya
obtain MMI values following conventional practice and prepared
an intensity map. The isoseismal map in any earthquake-affected Nepal earthquake of April 25, 2015 is located in Lesser Himalaya
region is an effective tool in the evaluation of ground motion char- (LH) domain, bounded on the north by intra-continental Main Cen-
acteristics of the region. tral Thrust (MCT) across which Higher Himalayan (HH) crystallines
Intensity data has wide applications in engineering seismology override southward (Yin, 2006). The LH on south is bounded suc-
inspite of its qualitative nature. Some of the applications include: cessively by the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Himalayan
studying the attenuation of ground motion (Khattri et al., 1984), Frontal Thrust (HFT), enclosing in between the narrow Sub-
correlation of intensities with accelerations and other parameters Himalaya (SH). The HFT defines the southern limit of the deforma-
like magnitude, epicentral distance (Murphy and O’ Brien, 1977), tion in the Himalayan system and defines a first order topographic
infer the pattern of faulting from the shape of the isoseismal break against the flat Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) further south.
(Gupta and Combs, 1978), correlation of the intensities with the Geologically Nepal Himalayas can be divided into four distinct tec-
ground response characteristics (King et al., 1990) and to study tonic units (Fig. 1) (Gansser, 1964; Le Fort, 1975; Yin, 2006). The
the anomalous residual intensities and their significance in seismic northernmost zone, known as the Tethyan sedimentary series
hazard estimation (Algermissen, 1986). The recent event has been (TSS), consists of Cambrian to Eocene sedimentary and low-grade
recorded at number of Indian strong motion sites spread over Uttar metamorphic rocks. The TSS lies between the Indus–Yarlung
Pradesh, Bihar and Uttarakhand as well at a single strong motion Suture (IYS), which is the northern limit of the Nepal Himalayas,
site in Nepal region, maintained by USGS (Fig. 1). We have made the South Tibetan Detachment, a north dipping normal fault,
an attempt to develop an attenuation relationship between PGA which marks the limit with the underlying Higher Himalaya
and intensity as well Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and intensity, (HH; Burchfield et al., 1992). The HH consists of high-grade
26 S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37
metamorphic rocks including gneisses, schists and migmatites. The Bangladesh are compiled. A summary of these reports, including
width of this unit varies along Nepal, it is only a few kilometers their sources, is listed in Table 1. From the available accounts, we
where the unit is limited to its root zone like in central Nepal, assigned modified Mercalli intensities (e.g., Stover and Coffman,
whereas, it can reach tens of kilometers where it has over- 1993) based on the severity of shaking and also compared it with
thrusted the Lesser Himalaya (LH) forming series of nappes and recent published reports and articles (Goda et al., 2015;
klippes in western and eastern Nepal (Upreti, 1999; De Celles Humanity Road report, 2015; Report by Omer and Resat, 2015).
et al., 2001). The LH underlies the HH along the Main Central In the Nepal region, heavily damaged regions were generally
Thrust (MCT) and forms a series of duplexes composed of low- assigned MMI values of IX, corresponding to violent damage to
grade meta-sedimentary rocks. In eastern Nepal, the LH is mainly structures. The intensities were assigned to a total of 175 sites
exposed in tectonic windows that cut through extensive crystalline spread across Nepal, India, Tibet, Bhutan and Bangladesh (Table 1).
thrust sheet. In central Nepal, the width of LH reaches 100 km An isoseismal map is prepared based on the assigned intensity
because of the absence of over-thrusted HH. Crystalline nappes dataset (Fig. 2). The isoseismal map (Fig. 2) reveals several interest-
and klippes reappear in western Nepal. The last unit, sub- ing features. In the isoseismal map, an intensity value of IX was
Himalaya is composed of Neogene to Quaternary syntectonic clas- assigned, where maximum building damage, road blockages,
tic sediments, is formed by the Siwalik thrust belt. It lies between rock/boulder falls in the mountain areas have been reported
the MBT and MFT, which is the most, recently activated one in the (Goda et al., 2015; Rai et al., 2015). We have overlaid the rupture
sequence (Lave and Avouac, 2001). model (dashed blue line) derived by USGS over the intensity map
Ongoing collision process in the Himalaya has posed high seis- and found that the maximum intensity (IX) falls within the zone
mic hazard in the region (Bilham et al., 2001) where many moder- where maximum slip has been observed (Goda et al., 2015). Inten-
ate to great earthquakes have devastated the region since historical sity VIII was assigned to places (Lamjung, Janakpur, Thankot,
times (Chitrakar and Pandey, 1986; Bilham, 2004), nonetheless the Ramachip) where most of the buildings have collapsed. The inten-
documentation of the historical data in the Himalaya is not com- sity VII mostly covered the southern parts of the Nepal and Tibet.
plete (Rajendran and Rajendran, 2005). Present day kinematics The Intensities VI cover mostly the adjoining regions of UP & Bihar
show that about 50% of plate convergence is consumed in a narrow of India (Gorkhapur in UP, Motihari, Raxual, Bettiah in Bihar), Tibet,
belt all along Himalaya (Jackson and Bilham, 1994; Jouanne et al., China region, where partial damage is reported and people were
1999; Larson et al., 1999; Lave and Avouac, 2001) with a seismic frightened and ran out of their houses, diagonal cracks are noticed
potential of producing great interplate earthquakes. Historically, and household articles are knocked down. In southern Tibet region,
Nepal hosted four moderate earthquakes (Ambraseys and an intensity of VI was assigned as most of the houses constructed
Douglas, 2004; Bilham, 2004) (Fig. 1). In Eastern Nepal, a major from mud have collapsed. Intensity V and IV are assigned to the
earthquake occurred in 1934, the Bihar-Nepal earthquake. In par- sites where shaking of bed, minor cracks in buildings, people were
ticular, this was the most destructive earthquake which has frightened are reported. In Kolkata, West Bengal, walls of few old
occurred in the recent past and caused many fatalities (+10,000 buildings were collapsed, where an intensity of IV was assigned.
deaths). In Western Nepal an Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred in Intensity III was assigned where no damage has been reported
1980 which killed more than 200 people and destroyed 40,000 and only felt reports are available. An isoseismal map is prepared
dwellings. Another Earthquake of the Mw = 6.8, occurred in the based on all the above information (Fig. 2). The isoseismal map is
eastern district of Udaipur of Nepal on August 20, 1988. This earth- well constrained with an elliptical shape, having its major axis
quake caused fatalities of more than 1000 and caused heavy dam- aligned in the ESE direction which indicate the direction of the rup-
age in both Nepal and India (Chander et al., 1986). Udaipur ture propagation as reported by USGS. Strike of the causative fault
earthquake was a comparatively deep focused event with its epi- matches well with the major axis of the isoseismal map.
center in the proximity of the rupture zone of the 1934 Nepal–
Bihar earthquake (Fig. 1) leading many authors to consider it to
be a mantle event (e.g., Pandey et al., 1999). On 18th September 4. Attenuation relationships between intensity and ground
2011, Mw, 6.9 earthquakes occurred in the eastern Nepal that motion parameters
killed more than 100 people in India and Nepal.
The 2015 Nepal earthquake of Mw 7.8 ruptured a fault section Seismic intensity is an index describing, at a particular site, the
that overlaps the rupture plane of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earth- degree of shaking or damage. An intensity map gives the shaking
quake (Avouac et al., 2015). Geologically, earthquake is located in pattern derived from damages caused from an earthquake and its
the Lesser Himalaya (LH) domain, bounded on the north by effects on humans. A more objective representation of the degree
intra-continental Main Central Thrust (MCT) across which Higher of shaking is provided by the accelerations that are measured by
Himalayan (HH) crystalline overrides southward (Fig. 1) (Yin, accelerographs. An attenuation relationship developed for a partic-
2006). The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Himalayan Fron- ular region provides a tool to rapidly assess damage from any
tal Thrust (HFT) bound the LH successively. These two thrusts earthquake. Such relationships are useful in generating shake maps
enclose the narrow Sub-Himalaya (SH Siwalik). The HFT provides for seismically active regions where more frequent, small to mod-
the topographic break from the flat pile of sediments in the Indo- erate, events occur and are felt widely but cause little or no dam-
Gangetic Plains (IGP). The sedimentary sequences together with age. Himalaya is one of the most active interplate earthquake
the underlying cratonic Indian plate under-thrusts the Himalaya. regions where earthquakes occurred frequently. Yet no empirical
It is also noted that the rupture planes of the 1934 and 2015 earth- ground-motion models have been derived for the area. Present
quakes are contiguous, although the locations of the epicentres of study is a step forward in this direction by making an attempt to
1934 and 2015 earthquakes are to east and west of Kathmandu, develop an empirical relationship for predicting the intensity of
respectively. crustal earthquakes in the Himalaya region.
Several studies on the attenuation relationships involving
intensities suggest that such empirical relationships are region-
3. Preparation of an isoseismal map of 2015 Nepal Earthquake specific and therefore they should be carefully chosen for use in
a particular region (Murphy and O’ Brien, 1977; Kaka and
All the news reports obtained after the Nepal earthquake from Atkinson, 2004; Wu et al., 2003). One of the first attempts to cor-
the print and electronic media of India, Nepal, Tibet, Bhutan and relate above parameters was made by Cancani (1904). Since then,
S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37 27
Table 1
Print and Web media based assigned MMI due to 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake.
Table 1 (continued)
Table 1 (continued)
Fig. 2. Intensity map of 25th April 2015, Nepal earthquake based on media and published report. Black star shows the epicenter of the event. Red dot shows the location of
MMI value as shown in Table 1. Blue dashed line shows the rupture plane of USGS, where maximum intensity IX has been observed. (For interpretation of the references to
colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
there are numerous correlations that have been published for var- with intensities than the PGA, based on their studies carried out
ious regions (Gupta, 1980; Wu et al., 2003; Tselentis and Danciu, using both PGA and PGV for the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
2008; Prajapati et al., 2013). Wald et al. (1999) have observed that In this study, we have made an attempt to develop an empir-
low levels of the shaking intensities correlate fairly well with both ical relationship between intensity versus PGA and PGV using
the PGA and PGV, while high intensities correlate best with the data from the recent Nepal earthquake that was recorded on a
PGV. Boatwright et al. (2001) observed that PGV correlates better number of strong-motion accelerographs installed along the
30 S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37
Table 2
Table shows the PGA, PGV and their assigned Intensity at Indian and Nepal Sites with rupture distance and site geology.
Station Station code Longitude Latitude Intensity PGA (g) PGV (cm/s) Rupture distance (km) Site geology
Jaunpur JAN 82.690 25.730 4 0.0219 3.07 311 Alluvium
Hardoi HAR 80.130 27.400 5 0.0089 1.74 474 Alluvium
Kishanganj KIS 87.950 26.100 5 0.0414 15.86 254 Alluvium
Laharpur LAH 80.890 27.410 5 0.0150 2.30 392 Alluvium
Lakhimpur LAK 80.790 27.950 5 0.0146 2.28 398 Alluvium
Patna PTN 85.150 25.620 5 0.0480 4.28 218 Alluvium
Bageswar BAG 79.770 29.830 5 0.0048 0.52 549 Quartzite
Kamedevi KAM 80.916 26.783 5 0.0033 0.56 406 Granite
Askot ASK 80.337 29.766 5 0.0088 0.86 489 Crystalline
Berinag BER 80.070 29.800 5 0.0034 0.61 517 Quartzite
Kapkot KAP 79.850 29.900 5 0.0057 0.46 544 Dolomite
Knalichina KNA 80.270 29.676 5 0.0057 0.61 492 Quartzite
Pithoragarh PIT 80.330 30.000 5 0.0124 0.77 500 Limestone
Darbhanga DAR 85.900 26.120 6 0.0753 11.40 133 Alluvium
Utraula UTR 82.410 27.310 6 0.0426 4.48 231 Alluvium
Bagha BGH 84.060 27.130 7 0.0590 8.38 100 Alluvium
MaharjGanj MAH 83.540 27.140 7 0.0635 10.83 132 Alluvium
Motihari MOT 84.900 26.630 7 0.0805 11.29 126 Alluvium
Raxaul RAX 84.840 26.980 8 0.0606 0.20 88 Alluvium
Kantipur KAN 85.316 27.712 9 0.1859 82.62 0 Sediment
Fig. 3. (a) Distribution of PGA with rupture distance. (b) Distribution of PGV with rupture distance.
quake at 21 sites. The network is installed and maintained by Ground-motion parameters MMIPGA = a + b log10(PGA)+mM + r log10(R)
Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee under + sS + e
mission mode project funded by Ministry of Earth Sciences, MMIPGV = a + b log10(PGV) + r log10(R) + sS + e
New Delhi. The PGA and PGV distribution with respect to rupture Regression coefficients Values Standard error t p value
distance is shown in Fig. 3a and b. The predictive MMI equation, PGA (cm/s2)
dependent on magnitude, PGA/PGV, epicentral distance and a 18.10 3.40 5.31 0.00006
the local site conditions is derived by fitting the maximum values b 0.53 0.68 0.77 0.0540
r 4.69 1.09 4.28 0.00059
of the ground-motion parameters using a weighted least-squares
m 0 0 0 0
regression technique. s 1.64 0.46 3.57 0
A multiple linear regression analysis is performed on ground rPGA-MMI 0.57
motion and intensities data using Eq. (1). PGV (cm/s)
a 18.98 1.95 8.53 0.000023
MMI ðPredictedÞ ¼ a þ b log10 ðPGA or PGVÞ þ mM b 0.0095 0.28 1.04 0.31
4.87 6.006
þ r log10 ðRÞ þ sS þ eMMI
r 0.81 0.005
ð1Þ
s 1.36 0.40 3.92 0.0012
rPGV-MMI 0.56
where MMI is predicted from ground motion parameters (PGA or
PGV), M is the moment magnitude, R is the epicentral distance, S
is a soil category (0 for rock sites and 1 for soft soil sites), a, b, m, tor variables and the response variable. The p-value for each vari-
r, and s are regression coefficients, and eMMI is an error term with able term in the equation is determined which tests the null
mean zero. hypothesis that the coefficient is equal to zero (no effect). A low
The regression coefficients for PGA and PGV were obtained from p-value (<0.05) indicates that we can reject the null hypothesis.
the data set by using multiple linear regression technique and In other words, a predictor that has a low p-value is likely to be
listed in Table 3. Regression analysis generates an equation, which a meaningful addition to a model because changes in the predic-
describes the statistical relationship between one or more predic- tor’s value are related to the changes in the response variable.
S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37 31
Conversely, a larger (insignificant) p-value suggests that changes in MMI ðPGAÞ ¼ 18:10 þ 0:53log10 ðPGAÞ 4:69 log10 ðRÞ
the predictor are not associated with changes in the response. In 1:64S þ 0:57 ð2Þ
regression, t value is the coefficient divided by its standard error.
The standard deviation values are listed in Table 3 and show that
the variability in the prediction of the MMI is low. Though the MMI ðPGVÞ ¼ 18:98 þ 0:0095log10 ðPGVÞ 4:87 log10 ðRÞ
standard deviation values are smaller, still we cannot empirically
1:36S þ 0:56 ð3Þ
predict the MMI better than about one-half unit. The standard
deviation values obtained for the present relationship matches Fig. 4a and b shows a plot of PGA-MMI and PGV-MMI for the
with global relationships (0.5). 2015 Nepal earthquake with minimum e using Eqs. (2) and (3),
After multiple regressions analysis, following relationships respectively. In Fig. 4a, inset, we have plotted the MMI residuals
between MMI and PGA/PGV are developed: (observed-predicted) for Eq. (2) versus distance and PGA and
Fig. 4. (a) Plot of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Vs observed MMI. The dot line shows the fit between MMI Vs PGA using Eq. (1). In Inset, plot of residual MMI Vs distance
and PGAmax. (b) Plot of Peak Ground velocity (PGV) Vs observed MMI. The dot line shows the fit between MMI Vs PGV using Eq. (1). In Inset, plot of residual MMI Vs distance
and PGVmax.
Fig. 5. Observed Vs calculated MMI with rms. The red lines show the good fit. The calculated MMI is based on the empirical relation (shown in Table 4) given by Murphy and
O’Brien, 1977, Wald et al. 1999 and Linkimer, 2008 for California, Western USA, Japan, Costa Rica regions respectively. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this
figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
32 S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37
Table 4 quake. It has also been observed that PGA values are scattered by
Correlation between PGA and MMI based on available relation for various regions. single intensity unit. Murphy and O’ Brien (1977) and Wald et al.
Region Empirical relation Reference (1999) have also reported the same (Fig. 5). This may be due to
Nepal Region MMI(PGA) = 17.47 + 0.261 log10 Present study the fact that the PGA simplifies the complexity of ground shaking
(PGA) 4.40 log10 (R) + 0.69 without considering factors, such as duration, spectral content,
(III < MMI < IX) which may considerably affect the MMI estimate. MMI is a subjec-
Sikkim, Northeast MMI(PGA) = 12.31 + 0.49 log10 Prajapati tive description of human response and damage to building due to
India (PGA) 2.30 log10 (R) + 0.50 et al. (2013)
Costa Rica MMI = 2.30 log(PGAmax) + 0.92 Linkimer
the ground shaking. Therefore numerous factors may affect the
(II > MMI > V) (2008) MMI estimate at a particular site. Another aspect that contributes
Costa Rica MMI = 3.82 log(PGAmax) 1.78 Linkimer to the scatter is that PGA refers to a maximum value at a single
(V > MMI > VII) (2008) point as opposed to MMI that refers to a maximum or average level
Western USA, MMI = 2.86 log(PGAmax) + 1.24 Murphy and
of damage and earthquake effect throughout an area. Further, PGA-
Japan, Southern (IV < MMI < X) O’Brien
Europe (1977) based intensity is particularly useful in real-time applications for
Western USA, MMI = 4.00 log(PGAmax) 1.00 Murphy and damage prediction and generating shake maps.
Japan, Southern (IV < MMI < VIII) O’Brien
Europe (1977) 5. Relationships between magnitude/intensity versus epicentral
California MMI = 2.20 log(PGAmax) + 1.00 Wald et al.
(MMI < V) (1999)
distance
California MMI = 3.66log(PGAmax) 1.66 Wald et al.
(V < MMI < VIII) (1999) Intensity increases with the amplitude and duration of the
ground shaking, and depends mainly on the duration of the shak-
ing, but there is no generally accepted relationship of intensity to
similarly in Fig. 4b we have plotted the MMI residuals versus dis- any specific ground-motion parameter. Intensity tends to increase
tance and PGV for Eq. (3). In summary, the MMI prediction from with earthquake magnitude and decrease with D (epicentral dis-
the ground motion parameters appears to be more significant tance). The variation in the intensity values at the same D can be
when other parameters such as magnitude, epicentral distance, attributed to azimuthal variations in the radiated energy, differ-
and local soil conditions are involved in the predictive model. ences in wave propagation through crustal and upper-mantle
We have also tried various available attenuation relationships structure, and near-site amplification factors, including the geo-
(PGA Vs Intensity) developed for different regions of the world to logic foundation beneath the site and the sensitivity of the built
estimate the intensity value from the observed PGA of Nepal earth- environment.
quake. These intensity values are compared with the observed To mitigate the effects of the earthquakes, it is very important
intensity values of Nepal earthquake (Fig. 5, Table 4). It has been to understand attenuation characteristics of the medium between
observed that the values obtained from Linkimer (2008) for the the source and the site. Several studies have been carried out to
Costa Rica region and Prajapati et al., 2013 for Sikkim region develop empirical relationships worldwide. These relationships
moderately fit with the intensities derived for 2015 Nepal earth- are useful for geotechnical applications, such as microzonation
Fig. 6. Intensity map of historical earthquakes (1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1988 Udaipur, 2011 Sikkim-Nepal). Red star show the epicenter of earthquake. (Modified after Pandey and
Molnar, 1988; GSI, 1993; Prajapati et al., 2013). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37 33
and hazard assessment at a regional scale. Also, these can be used Himalaya, a simple attenuation model is adequate to determine
for generating shake maps in near real-time. Szeliga et al. (2010) intensity at a given distance. We tried to compare the attenuation
derived a new intensity attenuation relation for the Indian sub- relation developed for Nepal Himalaya region with similar rela-
continent and the Himalaya region and compared it with the tionships developed for different regions of the world and India
intensity attenuation of the central and eastern North America. (Howel and Schultz, 1975; Gupta and Nuttli, 1976; Bollinger,
In the present study, we have made an attempt to derive an 1977; Anderson, 1978; Chandra et al., 1979; Tilford et al., 1985;
attenuation relationship using the intensity data of the 2015 Sbar and Dubois, 1984; Ghosh and Mahajan, 2011; Szeliga et al.,
Nepal earthquake and intensity data of some historical earth- 2010; Prajapati et al., 2013). The recent attenuation relationship
quakes that have occurred in the Nepal region and whose inten- developed for Nepal region matches well with that of Kangra
sity maps are available. To derive the attenuation relation for region (Ghosh and Mahajan, 2011) and Northern Sonara region
entire Nepal Himalaya region, MMI and distances from the inten- (Sbar and Dubios, 1984) (Fig. 7b).
sity isoseismal map of historical (1934 Bihar-Nepal, Western To determine the characteristic site frequencies at each site
Nepal 1980, Udaipur 1988, and 2011 Sikkim-Nepal) earthquakes where SMA recordings are available, response spectral plots at
(Pandey and Molnar, 1988; GSI, 1993; Prajapati et al., 2013) each site were produced (Fig. 8). The characteristic site frequency,
(Fig. 6) along with recent 2015 Nepal earthquake have been used. the frequency at which maximum spectral acceleration is
We converted historical intensity into MMI scale and then used a observed, (Table 5) has major implications towards seismic hazard
simple relationship where intensity is a function of magnitude analysis.
and distance as proposed by Anderson (1978) and William and
Boore (1981).
6. Results and discussions
The basic relationship is
X
N
In the present study we have prepared an intensity map for the
IðR; MÞ ¼ ai Ei c R d logðRÞ ð4Þ
25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake based on damages reported in
i¼1
various print and electronic media and some reports. The intensity
map, allowed us to map out the general distribution of shaking
Ei ¼ 1; for earthquake i ¼ 0 otherwise
effects; it will also ultimately provide insight into the potential
ai , b, c are determined by the linear regression for individual earth- biases associated with the determination of intensities based solely
quakes, once ai is obtained, it can used to find magnitude on media accounts. Such results are expected to be very useful, as
dependence the 2015 earthquake has important implications for earthquake
hazard, not only in Nepal Himalaya region, but also in the central
ai ¼ a þ b M ð5Þ
as well as northern part of India. The results are comparable with
We have found a = 2.40, b = 1.35, c = 0.00297, d = 2.117 recent micro-seismal observations and damage survey reports
values. complied by various institutes (Goda et al., 2015; Humanity Road
report, 2015; Report by Omer and Resat, 2015). Near to epicenter
I ¼ 2:40 þ 1:35 Mw 0:00297 R 2:11 logðRÞ ð6Þ
most of the old buildings are leveled. Away from the epicenteral
The intensities obtained using Eq. (4) for historical earthquakes region, intensities amplified significantly in certain regions mostly
are plotted with respect to epicentral distance (Fig. 7a) for recent on alluvium plains. The pattern of isoseismal contour is ellipsoidal
2015 Nepal earthquake. It has been observed that, for Nepal in nature and oriented WNW-ESE direction and corroborates with
Fig. 7. (a) Distance Vs MMI plot of historical earthquake of Nepal Himalaya region. Black dot shows the digitized Intensity for 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1988 Udaipur, 2011 Sikkim-
Nepal and blue dot is calculated value from Eq. (5) with its rms. (b) Distance Vs MMI plot of Nepal earthquake 2015 as well as plot of attenuation relations of different regions
of the world for comparative study. The calculated MMI with rms (blue filled circle) is based on empirical relation derived from historical earthquake. (For interpretation of
the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
34 S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37
Fig. 8. Response spectral plots along with time histories of Bagha (BGH), Kishanganj (KIS), Lakhimpur (LAK), Raxaul (RAX) and Utrala (UTR) sites located in Uttar Pradesh and
Bihar.
S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37 35
Fig. 8 (continued)
Table 5 the fault plane solution, which confirm the possible rupture plane
Predominant frequencies at various strong motion sites located in Uttar Pradesh,
(Fig. 2).
Bihar states of India and Nepal region.
The intensity scales have been developed to quantify the sever-
Station Station code Predominant frequency (Hz) ity of the ground shaking on the basis of observed or felt effects in a
Jaunpur JAN 6.6 limited area. Felt intensity scales depend on geological conditions,
Hardoi HAR 1.7 the response of the structures, the uncertainty related to the con-
Kishanganj KIS 3.4
struction’s condition before the earthquake, the type of construc-
Laharpur LAH 3.4
Lakhimpur LAK 6.6 tion, and the density of population. However, a physical based
Patna PTN 3.3 ground-motion measure is needed for engineering purposes. With
Bageswar BAG 8.3 the advent of instrumental seismology, the correlation between
Kamedevi KAM 9.9 the felt intensity with ground-motion parameters has generated
Askot ASK 4.4
Berinag BER 7.7
lot of interest. This offers the opportunity to transform observed
Kapkot KAP 6.6 data (intensity) into widely used parameters that are useful for
Knalichina KNA 3.1 engineering purposes. This can also help in estimating these
Pithoragarh PIT 3.4 parameters for the historical earthquakes for which no instrumen-
Darbhanga DAR 2.6
tal data are available, to assess seismic hazard and damages, to
Utraula UTR 2.9
Bagha BGH 4.6 correlate different intensity scales, and to rapidly assess the sever-
MaharjGanj MAH 4.0 ity of ground shaking (Wald et al., 1999). To analyze the degree of
Motihari MOT 2.0 correlation between the ground-motion parameters and the
Raxaul RAX 5.7 observed intensity, an attempt has been made to correlate the felt
Kantipur KAN 2.5
intensity information with the strong-motion data recorded at 21
36 S.K. Prajapati et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 133 (2017) 24–37
locations for the 25th Nepal earthquake, covering the epicentral if a large earthquake occurs in Himalaya, 2–4 story buildings are
distances 70–500 km. For each PGA value, we assigned the more vulnerable as the characteristic site frequencies of this region
intensity based on isoseismal map prepared for the 2015 Nepal matches with the natural periods of such buildings.
earthquake. A multiple regression analysis between PGA-MMI
and PGV-MMI has been carried out to obtain regression relations. Acknowledgements
An empirical relationship developed here may be biased due to les-
ser volume of data for lower intensities. Additional data may The authors are thankful to the Secretary, Ministry of Earth
change the correlation as has been observed in other regions of Sciences, Government of India for support and encouragement.
world (Wald et al., 1999). Currently, for Nepal region, the data is Authors highly acknowledge the IIT Roorkee for providing strong
not sufficient to determine correlation for a particular range of motion data. Authors gratefully thanks to both anonymous review-
focal depths, and hypocentral distances. Hence, the relationship ers for their valuable comments and suggestions which helped us
derived in this study may be improved with the addition of more to improve the original manuscript.
and more observations as and when they become available.
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