Power Shifts – Arne Westad class

Definition of Power: ‘getting people to act differently from what they would otherwise have done’

Dimensions of power: Social, ideological, economic, political , military - soft v.s. hard power

Do not overemphasis one of these at the expense of others – can be dangerous

e.g. Economic power: Historically, economic power has come with population size – larger the territory
and population, higher chance of economic success – this is reason why China has been largest
economic power for most of history – immigration very important; countries that can bring in, or are
attractive to, immigrants will do better. Closed countries will lose out. Others catch up

The State – remarkable ability to make a comeback- essential to have understanding and realise their
importance - State without territory doesn’t really exist – Territoriality and statehood go together (ISIS
not real state). – smaller states have closer connection to the people they rule

Ideology & Religion: Tendency today to disregard ideology and religion as motives for human action. At
different periods of history, everything was about ideology (China in 60,70’s). World very different
today; about efficiency, economic progress. This is misleading – religion is one of most important drivers
for human behavior – Westad thinks this may be returning – Most states do not have a national purpose
– China? – development for Chinese people. Does common religion make for a strong state? Usually yes,
but China is big exception – religion not a strong thread in Chinese history

Very hard to get strong state without strong society (culture, justice, freedom, religion, civilization)

Strong societies – Cohesion, common institutions, civic rituals, welfare, social mobility. Tendency to
think of social welfare as a 20th century thing, but it isn’t. – idea that state and society has no
responsibility for an individual is a new idea. – One of the clearest signs of a state in trouble, is that
social mobility declines

Out of every Eastern European nation that has come about has been a ‘crazy historian’ who has told the
people that ‘ you are a nation’ – a lot of time with warped history

Lack of innovation is something that dooms a state – good education, free market, open borders and
being technologically advanced – openness to new ideas.
Military- manpower, economic surplus, technology, popular support – Roman Empire collapsed due to
over-commitment – neglected defensive strategies

International Systems – tendency to think of these as global today, but throughout history mostly these
are regional or sub-regional systems – the bigger a country is, the more international it tends to be –
trouble comes when leaders disregard domestic affairs. Nationalism does not always conflict with
international cooperation – e.g. European states in 1800s working together. Power is relative, not
absolute – you are only as powerful as your relative advantage over the next strongest state (big issue
for US/China relations) - internal subversion (e..g USA forgetting while it talks about Russian electoral
interference that it officially supported Yeltsin re-election in ’96)

Power Transitions

- 1. Stage of potential power

- Stage of transitional growth in power

- Stage of power maturity

When US replaced Britain in 19/20th Century, it bought into existing international system and thus
avoided conflict – Why would China want to break this existing system when it has benefited hugely
from the global order and system? Public opinion plays important role – nobody wants to live in a state
where people know it is in decline

Balkan power constellation in 1914 was a classic tripwire in power politics – very opaque and many
actors committed – very difficult to pull back from

How to Learn from Cases:

- History for public olicy students – use cases of past power shifts to understand shifts in our own
time – indirect method, no absolute lessons from the past – students learn by putting themselves in
the place of a decision maker – not necessary to do additional reading