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Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Outline
Decision Modeling
A
MODULE
The Decision Process in Operations
Fundamentals of Decision Making
Decision Tables
Types of Decision-Making
PowerPoint presentation to accompany Environments
Heizer and Render
Operations Management, Global Edition, Eleventh Edition Decision Trees
Principles of Operations Management, Global Edition, Ninth Edition
© 2014
© 2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education
Education MA - 1 © 2014 Pearson Education MA - 2
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Fundamentals of Fundamentals of
Decision Making Decision Making
1. Terms: 2. Symbols used in a decision tree:
a. Alternative – a course of action or a. – Decision node from which one of
strategy that may be chosen by the several alternatives may be selected
decision maker b. – A state-of-nature node out of
b. State of nature – an occurrence or a which one state of nature will occur
situation over which the decision
maker has little or no control
Figure A.1
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Uncertainty Uncertainty
2. Maximin 3. Equally likely
▶ Find the alternative that maximizes the ▶ Find the alternative with the highest
minimum outcome for every alternative average outcome
▶ Pick the outcome with the minimum ▶ Pick the outcome with the maximum
number number
▶ Least possible loss ▶ Assumes each state of nature is equally
▶ This is viewed as a pessimistic decision likely to occur
criteria
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Figure A.3
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