Flood or Storm Return Period

In order to discuss the concepts of frequency analysis as used in hydrology, and present some of
the fundamental relationships, it's necessary to be familiar with a few terms that are used in this
component of hydrology. Following are definitions for those few essential terms.

1. Return Period (T) - The average length of time in years for an event (e.g. flood or river level) of
given magnitude to be equaled or exceeded. For example, if the river level with a 50 year return
period at a given location is 8 ft above flood stage, this is just another way of saying that a river level
of 8 ft above flood stage, or greater, should occur at that location on the average only once every 50
years.

2. Probability of Occurrence (p) (of an event of specified magnitude) - The probability that an event
of the specified magnitude will be equaled or exceeded during a one year period.

3. Probability of Nonoccurrence (q) (of an event of specified magnitude) - The probability that an
event of the specified magnitude will not be equaled or exceeded during a one year period.

4. Probability of Occurrence within a period of N years (pN) - The probability that an event of
specified magnitude will be equaled or exceeded within a period of N years.

5. Probability of Nonoccurrence within a period of N years (qN) - The probability that an event of
specified magnitude will not be equaled or exceeded within a period of N years.

Basic Relationships

A fundamental relationship is that between flood return period (T) and probability of occurrence
(p). These two variables are inversely related to each other. That is:

p = 1/T and T = 1/p.

For example, the probability of a 50 year storm occurring in a one year period is 1/50 or 0.02.
The probability of occurrence and probability of non-occurrence are related by the fact that something
must either occur or not occur, so

p + q = 1 and pN + qN = 1.

From basic probability theory, qN = qN. Substituting to get an equation relating pN and p: 1 - pN =
N
(1 - p) . This can be rearranged to:

pN = 1 - (1 - p)N.

Example Calculations

Question #1: Could a 100 year flood occur in the next year after a 100 year flood has taken place.

Solution: The answer is yes. A 100 year flood has a return period of T = 100, so the probability of a
flood of equal or greater magnitude occurring in any one year period is p = 1/T = 1/100 = 0.01.

Thus there is a probability of 0.01 or 1 in 100 that a 100 year flood will occur in any given year. It
is not likely, but it is possible. The fact that a 100 year flood occurred in one year has no effect on the
probability of its occurring in the next year.

Question #2: What is the probability that a 50 year river level will occur within the next 10 years at any
given location?

Solution: The answer to this can be found using the last equation in the previous section,

pN = 1 - (1 - p)N.

Since we are considering a 10 year period of time, N = 10. Also, for a 50 year river level,

p = 1/50 = 0.02. Substituting into the equation: P10 = 1 - (1 - 0.02)10 = 1 - 0.9810 = 0.183.

Thus the probability of a 50 year river level occurring in a 10 year period is about 18%.
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
The most commonly used techniques for investigating the relationship between two
quantitative variables (variables measured on a numeric scale) correlation and linear regression.
Correlation quantifies the strength of the linear relationship between a pair of variables, whereas
regression expresses the relationship in the form of an equation.

Scatter Diagram

When investigating a relationship between two variables, the first step is to show the data
values graphically on a scatter diagram.

CORRELATION

On a scatter diagram, the closer the points lie to a straight line, the stronger the linear
relationship between two variables. To quantify the strength of the relationship, we can calculate the
correlation coefficient. In algebraic notation, if we have two variables x and y, and the data take the
form of n pairs (i.e. [x1, y1], [x2, y2], [x3, y3] ... [xn, yn]), then the correlation coefficient is given by the
following equation:
n
Ʃ (xi – x)(yi – y)
i =1
r=
n n
Ʃ (xi – x)² Ʃ (yi – y)²
i =1 i =1

where x is the mean of the x values, and y is the mean of the y values.

This is the product moment correlation coefficient (or Pearson correlation coefficient). The value
of r always lies between -1 and +1. A value of the correlation coefficient close to +1 indicates a strong
positive linear relationship. A value close to -1 indicates a strong negative linear relationship. A value
close to 0 indicates no linear relationship. However, there could be a nonlinear relationship between the
variables.
Strong moderate moderate strong
-1 weak weak 1

-0.8 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.8

REGRESSION

Equation of a Straight Line

The equation of a straight line is given by y = ax + b, where the coefficients a and b are the
intercept of the line on the y axis and the gradient, respectively.

Method of Least Squares

The regression line is obtained using the method of least squares. Any line y = ax + b that we
draw through the points gives a predicted or fitted value of y for each value of x in the data set. For a
particular value of x the vertical difference between the observed and fitted value of y is known as the
deviation, or residual. The method of least squares finds the values of a and b that minimize the sum of
the squares of all the deviations. This gives the following formulae for calculating a and b:
 Least Square Method (best fit)

x 1 2 4 5 7 8
y 1 3 3 5 3 5

y = dependent or response variable

Error or residual
7
6 Ʃe² = (-.5)²+(1)²+(0)²+(1.5)²+(-1.5)²+(0)²
5 1.5 0.0

4 -1.5
0.0
Ʃe² = 5.75
3 1.0

2
-0.5
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 x
x = independent or explanatory variable

7
6 Ʃe² = (-.9)²+(.6)²+(0)²+(1.7)²+(-1.2)²+(.3)²
5 1.7 0.3

4 -1.2
0.0
Ʃe² = 5.59 ( less error )
3 0.6

2 -0.9

1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 x

Examples of Linear Regression and Correlation

x -1 1 2 4 6 7
y -1 2 3 3 5 8
n=6

Is there any linear relationship between X and Y. And if there is, how could this be. Find the linear
relationship – it will be given by the coefficient correlation.

Find the following summation: Ʃx, Ʃy, Ʃx², Ʃy², Ʃxy

First, draw a summary table:

X Y X² Y² XY

-1 -1 1 1 1

1 2 1 4 2

2 3 4 9 6

4 3 16 9 12

6 5 36 25 30

7 8 49 64 56
Ʃ 19 20 107 112 107
 y = ax + b n=6

(Ʃx)(Ʃy) – nƩxy 19(20) – 6(107) -262

a= = =
(Ʃx)² - nƩx² (19)² - 6(107) -281

a = 0.9324

(Ʃx)(Ʃxy) – (Ʃy)(Ʃxy) 19(107) – (20)(107) -107

b= = =
(Ʃx)² - nƩx² (19)² - 6(107) -281

b = 0.3808

y = ax + b = 0.9324 x + 0.3808 This is used to predict an event

Standard deviation

Ʃx² - 1/n(Ʃx)² 107 – 1/6(19)²

Sx = =
n-1 6 -1

Sx = 3.065

Ʃy² - 1/n(Ʃy)² 112 – 1/6(20)²

Sy = =
n-1 6 -1

Sy = 3.0111
Sx (a) 3.065 (0.9324)
r = =
Sy 3.0111

r = 0.9477 ≈ 1 (strong correlation)

Examples Data Above

x -1 1 2 4 6 7 -1 ≤ x ≤ 7
y -1 2 3 3 5 8 -1 ≤ y ≤ 8
y = ax + b = 0.9324 x + 0.3808, r = 0.9477

Interpolation:
What is the predicted value of y given x if x = 5?
x=5 y=?
x = 5 (within the x values -1 to 7)
y = 0.9324 ( 5 ) + 0.3808
y = 5.0428

Extrapolation:
What is the predicted value of y given x if x = 12?
x = 12 (outside the x values -1 to 7)
y = (no prediction)