CAS/WWRP/JSC5/Doc. 4.1 : p.

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CAS/WWRP/JSC5/DOC4.1

(27 January 2012)
COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (CAS)
th Item: 4.1
5 Joint Science Committee of the World Weather
Research Programme
WMO
Geneva, Switzerland (11-13 April 2012)

Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST-2014)

Concept paper

Introduction

The Next Olympic / Paralympic Games «Sochi-2014» (hereinafter referred to as

«Olympics») will be held in Sochi, Russia, on February 8-23 / March 7-16, 2014.
Roshydromet (the Federal Service for HydroMeteorology and Environmental Monitoring) is
responsible for provision of hydrological and meteorological support and services to
ensure the safety of the guests and participants and efficient work of involved bodies. All
forecast ranges are important for the Olympic meteorological services. However, out of
these «seamless» needs the primary focus of the proposed project is on nowcasting and
short-range weather forecasting.
FROST-2014 (FROST - Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) project is
proposed for the period from now to the Olympics:
• To develop, enhance and demonstrate capabilities of modern systems of short-
range numerical weather prediction (NWP);
• To further develop and demonstrate nowcasting in winter conditions for
mountainous terrain and
• To assess the effect of practical use of this information.

Background and heritage

The World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Program (WWRP) has
previously organized several Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and Research
Development Projects (RDP) to advance and demonstrate state-of-the-art nowcasting and
forecasting systems. Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) was the first RDP (1999) and
was focused on understanding weather systems in complex terrain and flash flood events.
Based on the success of MAP, the MAP-Demonstration Phase was organized in 2005 and
focused on demonstrating the utility of prediction systems for hydrological flash flood
applications. While in complex terrain, the focus was on precipitation. The Sydney 2000
FDP focused on advancing and demonstrating summer convective nowcasting systems.
The Beijing 2008 FDP was conducted with the goal to demonstrate nowcasting advances
since 2000 and facilitate technology transfer into operations. In addition, the second
project, Beijing 2008 RDP was carried out with focus on mesoscale ensemble prediction.
In both projects the focus was on precipitation prediction, convective initiation and summer
severe weather. SNOW-V10 (Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver
2010) project was approved as an RDP due to the novel aspects of the winter nowcasting,

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particularly in complex terrain, but operated as a blended RDP/FDP. Innovations included

nowcasting of rain-snow boundary, snowfall intensity, phase, visibility (fog/low cloud),
temperature, and wind.

From the point of view of weather conditions, orography and meteorological needs these
Olympics have much in common with the recent «Vancouver-2010» Olympic Games.
Similar to Vancouver, high winds, visibility and low cloud, precipitation amount and phase
are the critical weather elements. Following the FDP/RDP of the «Vancouver-2010», the
present project offers a tremendous opportunity to continue and enhance the progress
made there, develop and test new techniques for weather forecasting and nowcasting.

FROST-2014 is expected:
• To extend experience of the B08RDP mesoscale ensemble prediction into
mountain environment in winter season;
• To extend the experience of MAP and MAP D-Phase to various weather elements;
• To extend the experience of SNOW-V10, which was focused primarily on
nowcasting, to more emphasis on NWP.

The Venues

The city of Sochi is located at approximately 44°N, 40°E at the Black sea coast. Sochi
Olympic objects are separated between two clusters: a coastal cluster for ice sport
competitions and a mountain cluster for snow sport events. The latter is located at
Krasnaya Polyana township about 45 km away from the coast (Fig.1). Mountains of
approximately 2 km height are typical for that region. The mountain cluster events are
especially weather-sensitive.

Fig.1. The two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues:

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- The coastal cluster for ice sports competitions (Figure Skating, Short track Skating,
Speed Skating, Ice Hockey, Curling, Ice training); Opening and Closing
Ceremonies;
- The mountain cluster for snow sports competitions (Alpine skiing, Cross-country
skiing, Biathlon, Ski jumping and Nordic Combined, Freestyle and Snowboard,
Bobsleigh, Luge and Skeleton).

Weather conditions and challenges

Winter weather conditions in the region of Sochi are mainly determined by the quasi-
permanent Black Sea baric depression and the spur of the Asian anticyclone. Rapidly
passing cyclones accompanied by strong winds, snow- and rainfall are alternated with cold
anti-cyclonic intrusions from the east. Main Caucasian ridge mitigates these cold intrusions
and block warm wet landward air flows from the Black sea. The typical sea surface
temperature near Sochi in February-March is 8-10ºC.

Multiyear mean minimum near-surface temperatures in the mountain cluster in the period
of the Olympics are negative at all altitudes; mean maximum temperatures are below zero
at altitudes above 1600 m; and daily mean temperatures are negative at altitudes above
700 m. In some years intense heatwaves might endanger the natural snow cover
existence in the lowermost part of the mountain cluster.

On the other hand, heavy snowfalls are also typical for this area. Maximum registered daily
snowfall reported by the weather station Krasnaya Poliana (WMO index: 37107.
Elevation: 568 m) was 92 cm. Winter maximum is clearly pronounced in the precipitation
annual cycle. Mean monthly precipitation totals in Krasnaya Poliana for February and
March are equal to 123 and 118 mm respectively. They tend to increase with elevation.

Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region
of the Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical
and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging.
For the territory of Russia northern Caucasus is among the leaders with respect to the
number of annually registered weather hazards (heavy precipitation, strong winds, icing
etc). Although not frequent, thunderstorms might also take place in winter season.

Precipitation intensity and type, gusting winds, visibility and cloud ceiling are the primary
critical weather elements for the Sochi Olympics.

Goals of the FROST-2014 project

Meteorological support of winter Olympics in mountainous terrain implies both fundamental
research and practical forecast demonstration components. A blended RDP/FDP under
the auspices of the Nowcasting and Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Working
Groups of the WWRP is to be an appropriate organizational form for the project. The
outputs of the project will be used to enhance the mesoscale and nowcasting services for
the Olympics.
Goals:
• To improve and exploit:

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– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological

conditions in winter complex terrain environment, including downscaled
modeling;
– regional mesoscale EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast products in
winter complex terrain environment;
– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (snow levels, wind,
visibility, precipitation type and intensity) in complex terrain.

• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the

region;
• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather
forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement.
• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts)
As the project evolves these goals will be detailed.

Project components and objectives

Deterministic NWP

NWP is considered to be a backbone of the FROST-2014 project. The very complex

region of Sochi provides a stimulating environment for the application of high-resolution
meso-scale modeling methods for the purposes of short-term weather forecasting.

There are many scientific issues that should be addressed within this deterministic
component of the project, e.g.:
• Impact of horizontal resolution and various physical processes on NWP of high-
impact winter weather over a region with mountain terrain;
• Mesoscale data assimilation and its impact on forecasts of winter weather;
• Impact of better surface-atmosphere coupling on predictability of mesoscale
phenomena;
• Nowcasting potential of numerical models;
• Predictability of various meteorological parameters/phenomena of winter weather in
mountains (precipitation intensity and type, wind speed and direction, visibility, etc.).

Development and testing of physical parameterizations for visibility, wind gusts,

precipitation type and snow characteristics along with improvement of formulation of
boundary layer and shallow convection should be a part of the project.

The preliminary list of participants of this project component includes: COSMO, AROME,
GEM, WRF, GRAPES (?), and HARMONIE. It is planned that in FDP mode FROST-2014
deterministic forecasts will have horizontal resolution of 2-2.5 km or finer, whereas in RDP
mode 1 km or less. The groups that wish to go beyond this baseline in terms of resolution
are welcome to do so. Besides, various approaches of downscaling of model forecasts to
the locations of individual sport venues will be implemented, verified, and intercompared. It
is worth noting that at the moment no operational model with resolution about 2 km is
implemented for the region in question. Several models are expected to be implemented
for the Sochi region with resolution of 1 km or finer (e.g. GEM/LAM, COSMO, AROME).

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COSMO will be the basic operational mesoscale NWP system of Roshydromet for the
Sochi Olympics.

Ensemble NWP

Many scientific issues should be addressed in the framework of ensemble NWP

component of the project, e.g.:
• Forecast error growth and predictability on small spatial and temporal scales over
steep terrain;
• Representation of sources of uncertainty in LAM EPS systems. Methodologies for
generating perturbations in initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, surface
fields, and model errors;
• Interpretation and configuring of LAM-EPS in the context of high-impact weather in
mountains;
• Added value of convection permitting EPSs. Evaluation of the usefulness of coarser
resolution EPSs to provide uncertainty information for prediction of weather
elements at particular locations (which typically requires much higher horizontal
resolution) compared to 1-km or less deterministic models;
• Forecast uncertainty vs observational uncertainty in forecast verification.

The main challenge for regional EPS systems is to accurately assess the probability of
High-Impact Weather (HIW) events. With respect to the number of annually registered
weather hazards (heavy precipitation, strong winds, icing etc.), northern Caucasus is one
of the most affected regions on the territory of Russia. This region might be a good testing
ground for the development of new probabilistic forecast products for HIW events. Due to
the strong dependence of many winter sport events on weather conditions, HIW in the
context of winter Olympics is not necessarily linked with very intense or extreme
meteorological phenomena. E.g. for outdoor sport events HIW forecasting also includes
accurate representation of cross-zero temperature transitions (especially critical for cross-
country skiing), precipitation type and other sensible weather changes with respect to the
prescribed decision-making thresholds (Annex 6). Development and demonstration of
various HIW-related specific products is part of this ensemble project component.

EPSs with resolution of about 7 km or coarser are planned to be involved in the project in
forecast demonstration mode, while EPSs with resolution about 2 km will contribute to the
project in research mode. Tentative list of participants: COSMO, ALADIN LAEF, AROME
EPS, GLAMEPS, and HARMON EPS. ECMWF officially informed Roshydromet about its
readiness to provide lateral boundary conditions for a WMO project associated with
«Sochi-2014» Olympics.

Data assimilation

The vast sea area on one side and mountainous terrain on the other side of Sochi impose
serious restrictions on configuration of the ground-based observational network in the
region. This geography requires the extensive use of satellite, Doppler radar and profiler
facilities for sounding of the atmosphere and the underlying surface. This information will
be of utmost importance as a source of meso-scale structures for NWP. Therefore, high-
resolution data assimilation is a matter of particular interest and a new aspect of WWRP
projects.

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Several data assimilation approaches for the atmosphere and the underlying surface are
expected to be tested. Some project participants will conduct experiments with identical
model configurations with and without data assimilation to assess the data assimilation
contribution to forecast performance.

Assimilation of radar data in the region of Sochi may only be beneficial for a short forecast
range because of lack of radar coverage to the west of Olympic venues. Rapid update
cycle capability is therefore needed to exploit the potential benefits. Assimilation of satellite
winds (AMV and ASCAT) and radiances over vast areas of the Black Sea is believed to be
important as its effect may last longer.

List of non-satellite data that are considered to be useful for assimilation in Sochi project
includes:
– Surface observations;
– Radar winds;
– Wind and temperature profiles from local sounders;
– AMDAR.
Assimilation of radar reflectivity aiming for a better representation of the thermodynamic
structure of the atmosphere near precipitating clouds might not be too efficient and useful
in winter, but this is an area that may be addressed in the RDP project.

Data assimilation is to be included in both FDP (the existing technologies) and RDP (new
developments) FROST-2014 components.

As suggested by the WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting

Research, a simple downscaling from relatively low-resolution (7 km or coarser) regional
data assimilation systems will be the baseline. For example, for COSMO-RU assimilation
is to be run at resolution about 7 km with downscaling to 2 or 1 km. But groups that are
able to go beyond that and assimilate observations from the «Sochi-2014» network (e.g.,
radar radial winds, profilers) are encouraged to attempt the kilometric-scale data
assimilation.

Nowcasting

SNOW-V10 was the first WWRP winter complex terrain nowcasting project. It remains to
be demonstrated whether its results are universally applied and can be demonstrated in a
different environment or with different observating network. FROST-2014 provides an
excellent opportunity to extend the experience of SNOW-V10 project in the scientifically
challenging area of winter nowcasting in a region with complex terrain.

Many issues should be tackled within this project component in the RDP mode, e.g.:
- Nowcasting of high impact winter weather and multiple weather elements (wind speed
and direction, wind gust, visibility, precipitation intensity and type) in complex terrain;
- Improvement of blending procedures for NWP with time-extrapolated observations for
winter;
- Radar retrieval of precipitation type and intensity;
- Diabatic and orographic effects on precipitation nowcasting in complex terrain;
- Assessment and account for observational uncertainty (WGNR mandate).
- Identification of local circulations and clouds controlled by effects of flow blocking,
diabatic cooling due to melting snow, and evaporation of precipitation.

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A major challenge is the development of nowcasting systems or mesoscale NWP systems

to fill the gap in the 4-6 hour lead time and, probably, up to the 12 hour range. Nowcasting
potential of participating NWP models (COSMO, HARMONIE, AROME, GEM, and WRF)
should be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS)
model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, specialized nowcasting systems are
expected to be used in the project (see Table 1). Capabilities of these technologies and
new nowcasting products for winter HIW events are planned to be demonstrated in the
FDP mode.

Table 1. Tentative list of nowcasting systems participating in FROST-2014

System Forecast Spatial Output Products
Period Resolution
ABOM 0-6h 1km Precipitation rate and type; wind speed
direction and gust; temperature; humidity;
visibility; cloud base
CARDS 0-2h 1km Location, intensity and track of storm cell; QPF;
hail size; gust; downburst; mesocyclone
INTW 0-6h 1km Precipitation rate and type; wind speed
direction and gust; temperature; humidity;
visbility; cloud base
MeteoExpert 0-4h 1km Location, intensity and track of cloudiness and
precipitation zones and dangerous weather
(Thunderstorm, hail, microburst, icing and
turbulence), QPF.
STEPS 0-6h 1km QPF and precipitation probability
INCA 0-6h 1km Precipitation intensity and type; wind;
temperature; humidity; visibility (experimental
mode)
WSDDM 0-2h 0.2 km QPF; precipitation type and rate, visibility,
temperature

In general, current experience of nowcasting in Russia is very limited and associated

mostly with areas of flat terrain. Outcomes of the proposed activity might be a long-term
legacy of the project.

Observations

Roshydromet will provide the project partners with access to additional in-situ and remote
sensing observations not normally available via the GTS. These observations will be
available to the participants via Internet with minimal delays.

In 2009-2010 18 automatic meteorological stations (AMS) were installed in the region by

Roshydromet. Some of these stations were enhanced with additional sensors (visibility
and cloud base) in the autumn 2011 (Annex 1). On account of investors, 10 AMS were
installed and 7 AMS will be added in the area of sport venues during the winter 2011/2012.
Besides, 8 AMS were installed and about 20 AMS should be mounted on the towers of
mobile communication owned by the Megafon corporation. The frequency of observations
will be station-dependent (it might be different for the different groups of stations:
Roshydromet’s AMSs, AMSs owned by sport venue investors, and AMSs of the Megafon

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corporation). In general the sampling interval will not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of
the stations it will be substantially higher.

More details on the AMSs (sensors and coordinates) are presented in Annex 1.

Fig.2 AMSs in the region of Sochi (a similar map with zooming is available at
http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru). Notation: Roshydromet's AMSs are designated by red
markers with label "*"; "E" - Roshydromet's air quality control stations; "R" - mountain
skiing venue AMSs (owned by the Rosa-Khutor company); "G" - biathlon venue AMSs
(owned by the Gazprom company);"M" – AMSs on the cellphone towers of the Megaphone
operator; "A" - planned AMSs on the Megaphone cellphone towers. Moored sea buoys are
designated by sail boats. Location of Doppler radar on the Akhun mountain is marked by
white nested circles. The mountain cluster is outlined by the red cirle.

Data from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain
will be available by winter 2012/2013. Additional dual-polarization Dopplers in nearby
airports might be installed later.

Wind profiler, temperature/humidity profiler and Micro Rain Radar (MRR) will supplement
the network by winter 2012/2013. It is quite likely that another MRR will be installed during
the winter 2011/2012. In the Krasnaya Poliana valley these vertical soundings will be
extremely important for diagnosis of the atmospheric lower layers screened from the
Akhun Doppler radar by the mountains.

The nearest to the mountain cluster upper air sounding station is located in Tuapse
(approximately 100 km north-west). Soundings in Tuapse will be launched every 6 hours.
Other ways to enhance the observational network are looked into (more frequent sounding
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at other nearest aerological stations including stations in Ukraine, Armenia, Turkey,

Bulgaria; receiving of AMDAR data from Adler airport; etc).

Several FROST-2014 participants expressed their readiness to lend additional

observational equipment for the project and interest to organization of an instrument
intercomparison site. This opportunity is being worked on.

Information Technologies

Development of a comprehensive information resource wih appropriate IT-infrastructure

and efficient data facilities is one of the key elements of the project. It is needed for
operational data assimilation, forecasting and nowcasting, verification, for posterior
diagnostic studies and analysis.

Unification and integration of data flows from multiple observational platforms and forecast
systems, timely information generation and delivery, efficient means of information
presentation are crucial for the project success. The proposed version of the forecast data
exchange protocol is presented in Annex 2.

Data storage with authorized Internet access and capacity for information rescue and
memory extention was organized for observation and forecast data exchange between the
project participants via FTP and HTTP protocols. Initial version of the project web-site is
available at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru. Some ideas for its web-interface that are
currently being implemented, originally were taken from web-resources of the previous
WWRP projects (e.g. elements of multi-window MAP D-Phase web-interface are being
realized on the basis of Google Earth for visualisation of meteorological information).

After the Olympics support of the FROST-2014 http/ftp-server is planned for further
retrospective studies (e.g. in the context of data assimilation).

Training and understanding

FROST-2014 is intended as an ‘end-to-end’ project. Its products must be used by local

forecasters for meteorological support of the future Olympics and preceding test sport
events. Training is critically needed to benefit from FROST-2014 nowcasts and forecasts
issued in FDP mode. This need is enhanced by the currently modest experience of
Roshydromet in nowcasting, high-resolution NWP and ensemble forecasting in complex
terrain. The project will contribute to the capacity building for the Russian Weather Service
in these and other related areas.

Annual training courses for future Sochi Olympic forecasters and their practical
participation in meteorological support of the test sport events have been practiced since
autumn 2010. This practice will continue till the Olympics. It will be intensified as more
technical facilities become available for forecasters. To get familiar and develop practical
skills with various new forecast products their early availability is of utmost importance.
This is also important for training of involved sport managers and decision makers.

Enhanced observational facilities and new NWP instruments are expected to give a new
look at the local weather phenomena in the region of the Olympics. The RDP project

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component can be of great help for better understanding of local HIW and development of
conceptual models of local meteorological processes.

Verification and Impact Assessments

Given the probabilistic nature of small-scale weather, traditional verification of deterministic

model output often fails to demonstrate the added value of high-resolution mesoscale
forecasts. This has provoked an extensive research into alternative mesoscale verification
methods. Along with traditional verification methods the substantial attention in FROST-
2014 should be given to new probabilistic approaches. Both user-oriented (in particular,
with account for the thresholds for decision making) and research-oriented verification
approaches will be employed. Spatial verification using remote sensing data will be applied
to the predicted precipitation fields. The preliminary version of the project verification plan
is presented in Annex 4.

As a complex terrain imposes additional limitations on representativeness of pointwise

contact observations, a substantial attention will be paid to account for statistical structure
of observed fields and uncertainty in observations.

Periodic formalized surveys among the Olympic forecasters will complement the results of
objective verification. Year by year interviewing of the forecasters should help to
understand how forecasters’ needs are changing. For example, how understanding of
weather processes (conceptual models) or use of EPS products evolve. Analysis of these
surveys is a part of social impact assessments, because the forecasters themselves or,
e.g., venue managers might be considered as specific users.

Participants and Governance/Project Management

First meeting of potential participants of FROST-2014 project was held in Sochi on 1-3
March 2011 (more details are available in the meeting report at
http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru). The Science Steering Committee (SSC) composed of the
leaders of participating organizations or their representatives was decided to oversee the
project.

The tentative SSC membership list is presented below:

Dmitry Kiktev - Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet

Chair
Detlev Majewski COSMO
Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE-LAM
Andrea Montani ARPA-SIMC
Paul Joe WWRP Nowcasting Research Working Group
Stephane Belair WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting
Research
George Isaac SNOW-V10, EC
Roy Rasmussen NCAR
Trond Iversen Hirlam/Aladin
Pertti Nurmi Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research
(JWGFVR)
Yong Wang Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG)
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Jian Sun CMA

Donghai Wang CMA/Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University
of Oklahoma
Dmitri Moisseev Helsinki University/Vaisala
Peter Romanov NOAA
Valery Lukyanov Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet - Chief Meteorologist
of «Sochi-2014» Olympics
Michael Tsyrulnikov Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet – NWP

Four Working Groups were established to deal with various components of the project
more specifically:
WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification)
Chair: V.Lukyanov/D.Kiktev, International Co-Chair: G.Isaac
WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification)
Chair: M.Tsyrulnikov/G.Rivin, International Co-Chair: A.Montani
WG3: IT (including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication)
Chair: D.Kiktev
WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts
Chair: I.Rozinkina/D.Kiktev

Implementation Plan

Schedule for Implementation includes:

• Concept document;
• Installation of equipment;
• Preparation and testing of forecasting systems;
• Trainings and Workshops;
• Formal Plans.

Winter 2011-12 is the pre-trial period and winter of 2012-13 the trial period, so that all the
technologies should be implemented and tested during these two periods. “Pre-olympic”
would be the period just before the Olympics where final tuning is done. Data collected
during the following winters will be used for high resolution weather forecasting systems
testing. The system will be revised and further tested. During the winter of 2013/14, the
Olympic Winter, the formal evaluation of nowcasts and forecasts will be made. A summary
of lessons learned and results achieved will be presented at the concluding WWRP
RDP/FDP meeting after the Olympics.

Preliminary implementation plan is presented in Annex 3. The experience of the pre-trial

period (winter 2011-2012) will help to specify further details and needs (sufficiency of the
existing data channels, forecasters’ requests for more or better products, modifications of
data exchange protocol, etc).

Note:
Road safety nowcasts and forecasts are of great interest for Olympic logistics and
potentially can be a part of the project. However, it might be difficult to provide efficient
support of this activity from the hosting side other than data storage and access facilities,
as Roshydromet doesn’t have its own road AMSs and by now this activity has been
beyond the traditional scope of Roshydromet.

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Annex 1

Automatic meteorological stations in the region of Sochi (including AMSs planned in

Abkhazia)

№ Name Coordinates Altitude, Comments

m
Latitude Longitude
Roshydromet’s stations
1 Magry 44.0167 39.1667 50 WMO index 37105
2 Lazarevskoye 43.9000 39.3333 10 WMO index 37093
3 Solokh-Aul 43.8000 39.6333 443 WMO index 37092
4 Alpica-Service- 43.6391 40.2933 1465
1500
5 Alpica-Service- 43.6641 40.2927 1124 WMO index 37106
1000
6 Kepsha 43.6150 40.0491 180 WMO index 37100
7 Adler airport 43.4391 39.9308 10
8 Imeretinsky Bay 43.4000 39.9833 5 WMO index 37095
9 Guzerpil 44.0000 40.1667 678
10 Krasnaya Poliana 43.6823 40.2029 565 WMO index 37107
11 Kordon Laura (in 43.6998 40.2652 575
Esto-Sadok)
12 Aibga 43.6333 40.2833 2228
13 Sochi 43.5733 39.7667 142
agrometeorological
station
14 Tuapse 44.0167 39.0167 39
15 Jugba 44.3167 38.7167 23
16 Gelendzik 44.1000 38.0000 27
17 Novorossiisk 44.7167 37.8500 3
18 Gorny 44.2833 39.2667 323
Aviation Stations
1 Dagomis 49.6500 39.6667 65
2 Bocharov Ruchey 43.6208 39.7081 26
3 Lunnaya Poilana 43.9344 39.8678 1797
4 Orlenok 44.2635 38.8228 17
5 Navaginka 43.6192 39.7342 15
AMSs owned by «Roza Khutor» company (mountain skiing)
1 RKHU1 (Aibga) 43.6233 40.3125 2320 Wind, T, RH, Pressure
2 RKHU2 (Men’s 43.6336 40.3090 2137 Wind, T, RH, Liquid Precip,
Start) Reflected Short-Wave
Radiation, Snow Height,
Snow Surface Temperature
3 RKHU3 (Women’s 43.6394 40.3131 1740 T, RH, Reflected Short-
Start) Wave Radiation, Snow
Height, Snow Surface
Temperature
4 RKHU4 (Middle 43.6393 40.3131 1580 Wind, RH, Liquid
Point) Precipitation, Reflected
Short-Wave Radiation,
Snow Height, Snow
Surface Temperature

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5 RKHU5 (Snowboard 43.6453 40.3314 1229 T, RH

Park)
6 RKHU6 (Finish) 43.6451 40.3316 984 T, RH
AMSs owned by the «Krasnaya Poliana» Company
Ski Jump - 800 43.6742 40.2401 Winter 2011-2012
Ski Jump - 650 43.6773 40.2401 Winter 2011-2012
AMSs owned by the «Olympstroy» Company
1 Nordic / Combined 43.6772 40.2355 Winter 2011-2012
2 Bobsledding-start 43.6626 40.2861 Winter 2011-2012
3 Bobsledding-finish 43.6687 40.2889 Winter 2011-2012
AMSs owned by the «Gazprom» Company (biathlon)
1 Biathlon-1450 43.6921 40.3271 1455 principal AMS
2 Biathlon-1400 43.6931 40.3188 1405
3 Biathlon-1480 43.6947 40.3288 1480
4 Biathlon-1500 43.6930 40.3352 1495
AMSs on the towers of mobile communication
1 Sochi-Plastunka 43.6398 39.7573 138 Vaisala WXT520
2 Vaisala
Adler-Galitsino 43.5342 39.9875 468 WXT520+videocamera
3 Esto-Sadok 43.6872 40.2564 511 Vaisala WXT520
4 Matsesta-Chai 43.6266 39.8775 408 Vaisala WXT520
5 Khosta-Akhun Lufft WS600-UMB
mountain 43.5481 39.8508 663 +videocamera
6 Krasnaya Poliana- 487
MK 43.6731 40.2008 Vaisala WXT520
7 Sochi-Lake 389
Kalinovoye 43,6162 39,8819 Vaisala WXT520
8 Adler-Aeroport-MK 43,4450 39,9200 131 Vaisala WXT520
Planned (and negotiated) stations on the towers of mobile communication on the
territory of Abkhazia
1 Gagra 43.2500 40.2667 7 Priority
2 Gagra Ridge 43.3500 40.2833 1630
3 Pitsunda 43.1500 40.3500 0 Priority
4 Sukhumi Botanic Priority
43.0167 41.0167 37
Garden
5 Gadauty 43.1000 40.6333 51 Priority
6 Ashera 43.0333 41.0000 0
7 Lata 43.0333 41.5167 450 Priority
8 Adjara 43.1167 41.7333 952
9 Ochemchiry 42.7000 41.4667 5
10 Galy 42.6333 41.7333 64
11 Pskhu 43.4000 40.8167 668 Priority
12 Duripsh 43.1667 40.6167 250
13 Akhaly-Aphony 43.0833 40.7833 -
14 Kodory 42.8500 41.4667 130
15 Babushery 42.8667 41.1333 13
16 Qwezany 42.8500 41.6833 255 Priority
Air-quality control station (ecological)
1 ACK-А №1
Tsvetnoy Bulvar 43,60192 39,72456

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2 АПК-А №1
Krasnaya Poliana 43,68149 40,20546
3 АПК-А №2
Imeretinsky Bay 43,40472 39,95944
4 АПК-А №3
Imeretinsky Bay 43,41056 39,95472
5 Kazachiy Brod 43.5167 39.9833 approximate coords
6 The 5th km 43.6667 40.1833 approximate coords

There are several groups of AMSs:

1) Roshydromet's stations
Equipped mostly with Vaisala sensors:
Temperature and Relative Humidity – Vaisala QMH102;
Atmospheric Pressure – Vaisala PMT16A;
Precip gauge – VRG-101 or equivalent;
Wind - RM | Young 05103.
Additional sensors:
Visibility – Vaisala PWD20 (at Kepsha, Lazarevskoe, Solokh-Aul, Krasnaya
Poliana);
Ceilometer – Vaisala CL31 (at Adler-airport, Sochi, Kepsha, Esto-Sadok, Krasnaya
Poliana).
2) Basic stations at sport venues owned by private developers:
a) Roza-Khutor (Mountain skiing)

AMS Producer - SensAlpin GmbH, Switzerland.

Temperature sensor – Campbell T107;
Relative humidity – Hydroclip S3;
Snow temperature - Campbell T107B;
Snow surface temperature - IR AlpuG;
Wind Sensor - RM Young 05103;
Snow Height – Campbell SR50A;
Atmospheric Pressure - Setra CS100;
Precipitation Sensor - Campbell ARG100;
Irradiance – (pyranometer) Campbell CS300.
Transformer/ Logger - Campbell CR1000

b) Biathlon and skiing combined complex (Owner – Gazprom. AMSs are equipped
with Vaisala sensors)

Parameter Sensor Number

Atmospheric Pressure Baro-1QML 1

Wind Speed WAA252 2
Wind Direction WAV252 1
Snow Temperature QMT110 1

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 CAS/WWRP/JSC5/Doc. 4.1 : p. 15

Cloud Base Height CL31 1

Precipitation Amount OTT Pluvio2 1
Total Solar Radiation CMP6 1
Temperature and Humidity HMP155 2
Snow Height IRU9000 1
Snow State DSC111 1
Remote Sensor of Surface DST111 1
Temperature
Visibility and Precipitation Type PWD22 1

c) Skiing stadium

Parameter Sensor Number

Atmospheric Pressure Baro-1QML 1

Wind Speed WAA252 1
Snow Temperature QMT110 1
Temperature and Humidity HMP155 1
Snow Height IRU9000 1
Remote Sensor of Surface DST111 1
Temperature

d) Topmost and lowermost points of biathlon tracks

Parameter Sensor Number

Snow Temperature QMT110 1

Temperature and Humidity HMP155 1
Snow Height IRU9000 1
Remote Sensor of Surface DST111 1
Temperature

e) Other sport venues – to be ready during the winter 2011-2012.

3) AMSs on the towers of mobile communication – Vaisala WXT520 or LUFFT

WS600-UMB.

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Annex 2

Forecast data exchange requirements for FROST-2014 project

1) Two forms of data transfer:

- Grid-point forecast (nowcast) fields for unified domains (GRIB1 or GRIB2 format);
- Forecast time series at locations associated with observation sites (XML format).

2) The finest available forecast resolution

If we have 7 km/2 km as the finest resolution for FDP/RDP ensembles and 1 km/0.25 km
resolution for FDP/RDP deterministic runs (we have such proposals) it is important to
retain these resolutions for the exchange purposes.

All forecasts should be interpolated to the unified common grids (see below) before their
uploading. To avoid inflation of data amount due to the interpolation you can upload
forecasts for the relevant subdomain of your original grid and provide us with your own
interpolation program to the common grid.

3) Common grid projection – a usual geographical Lon-Lat grid. No rotation.

4) Grid domain, forecast range

The following grid domains are proposed for data exchange only. All the participants are
free to run their systems for larger domains.

• Ensemble FDP
The approximate grid spacing – 7 km. This means 0.0875°/0.063° along latitude/longitude
at the latitude of Sochi.

Krasnaya Poliana (43°41′0″N, 40°12′0″E) is suggested to be a reference grid point of the

unified grid. As the main threat (southern cyclones) usually comes from the west the
unified grid is not centred at Krasnaya Poliana - 1/3 of grid domain lies east from this
reference grid point and 2/3 - west.

The recommended grid domain - 286*285 grid points (Roughly ~2000*2000 km):
- 171 steps west and 114 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (25.2375°E-50.175°E);
- 142 steps south and 142 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (34.737(3)°N-
52.629(3)°N). Such a coverage is broad enough for synoptic interpretation (see
Fig.1 below).

The recommended forecast range - 72 hr or more.

Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0,3,6,9,12,15…hr (every 3 hours).
Time resolution for pointwise time series at locations associated with observation sites: 1
hr.

The recommended forecast update frequency: 12 hr (2 times a day) or more frequently.

Individual ensemble members rather than products – it gives more flexibility in further
processing.

• Ensemble RDP
Unified grid step – 2 km. This means 0.0250°/0. 0180° along latitude/longitude at the
latitude of Sochi.

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The recommended grid domain - 251*251 grid points (~500*500 km):

150 grid steps west and 100 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (36.45°E-42.7°E);
125 grid steps south and 125 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (41.4(3)°N-45.9(3)°N).
The recommended forecast range - 24 hr or more.
Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 1, 2, 3…24 hr (to assess model potential for
nowcasting).
Time resolution for pointwise time series at observation sites: 30 min.

Forecast update: every 12 hr or more frequently.

Individual ensemble members.

• Deterministic FDP
Unified grid step – 1 km. This means 0.0125°/0.0090° along latitude/longitude at the
latitude of Sochi.
The recommended domain – 301*301 grid points (roughly 300*300 km):
- 200 grid steps west and 100 steps east of Krasnaya Poliana (37.7°E-41.45°E);
- 150 grid steps south and 150 steps north of Krasnaya Poliana (42.(3)°N-45.0(3)°N).

The recommended forecast range - 24 hr.

Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3…24 hr (to assess model
potential for nowcasting).
Time resolution for pointwise forecast time series at observation sites – 10 min.
Forecast update: every 6 hr.

• Deterministic RDP
The unified grid spacing – 250 or 500 m depending on the highest available model
resolution. The exact domain is to be specified later.

The recommended forecast range - 12 hr or more.

Forecast time levels for grid-point fields: 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6…12 hr (to assess
model potential for nowcasting).
The recommended time resolution for pointwise time series at locations associated with
observation sites - 10 min.
The recommended update interval: every 6 hr – if there is no high-resolution data
assimilation, 3 hr otherwise.

Note: Optimal choice of the set of time levels is dependent on real model resolution. For
250 m model grid spacing half an hour time resolution might not be sufficient.

• Nowcasting
The unified grid domain – as for Deterministic FDP component.

The recommended forecast range – 3-6 hr.

Nowcast temporal resolution:
for grid-point fields – 10 minutes when required, otherwise 1 hr;
for pointwise time series – 5 min when required, otherwise 1 hr. Precipitation can be
provided in higher temporal resolution.
The recommended update frequency: from 10 to 60 min depending on parameter type and
data availability.

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 CAS/WWRP/JSC5/Doc. 4.1 : p. 18

Fig.2.1 Domains suggested for FROST-2014 forecast verifications: outer – for

Ensemble FDP, intermediate – for Ensemble RDP, inner – for Deterministic FDP
and nowcasting.

5) Parameters:
• For model ensembles and nowcasting:
sensible weather and high-impact parameters - precipitation conditions (liquid and
solid precipitation rate, freezing/frozen precipitation, accumulated snow), T2m,
near-surface wind speed/direction/gusts, relative humidity, dew point temperature,
visibility, cloudiness and cloud base and location of the zero-degree isotherm;
Ensemble forecast fields of some other traditional synoptic variables (e.g., 500 hPa
geopotential, T850) are of interest more for the purposes of synoptic interpretation
rather than for forecast validation.

• For deterministic runs: as for ensembles +

- For grid fields: Temperature, relative humidity, geopotential and wind for 1000,
925, 850, 700, 500 hPa levels;
- For individual grid-points near locations of temperature/humidity and wind
profilers: temperature, relative humidity, wind at original model levels + z-heights
of original model levels;
- MSLP;
- …
Other forecast variables and/or levels can be collected for diagnostic purposes,
interpretation and development of conceptual models of regional hydrometeorological
processes. However, the potentially available observational resources for their validation
are quite limited.

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If meeting the listed requirements appears to be not feasible for a project participant, then
relaxed requirements might be applied.

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Annex 3
FROST-2014 Implementation Plan

№ Milestones Deliverables Executive Timing

2011-2012 (Pre-trial Phase)
1.1 Preparation of concept paper Submission of concept paper D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011
to WWRP JSC
1.2 Organization of training couse for Enhanced practical skills and V.Lukyanov Oct 2011
Olympic forecasters theoretical background in the
Olympic forecasters team
1.3 Participation of FROST-2014 Participation in the A.Muravev Dec 1-7, 2011,
th
representative in the 5 International Workshop and Training P.Nurmi, BoM, Melbourne
Verification Methods Workshop course E.Atlaskin
with support of
the WMO
1.4 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting D.Kiktev Tentatively April
Committee meeting 2012
1.5 Provide the participants with Time series at the project D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011
observational time series for the web-site
previous winters
1.6 Provide access to the regional AMSs Authorised access to the D.Kiktev Nov-Dec 2011
data and specify information available regional AMSs’
exchange procedures data for project participants
1.7 Installation of Micro Rain Radar at Data flow to the project FTP- (to be specified) Winter 2011-2012
Roza Khutor sport venue server or (for winter 2011/12)
(MRR is being bought by the venue off-line archiving at local
owner) computer
1. 8 Integration of COSMO-7km EPS COSMO-7km EPS A.Montani From Dec 2011-
SOCHMEL to the project (FDP- SOCHMEL data flow to the Mar 2012
project component) project server
1. 9 Integration of Deterministic COSMO- COSMO-7km with DA data D.Majewski Dec 2011-Mar
7km with data assimilation (DA) to flow to the project server 2012
the project (RDP project component)
1.10 Integration of Determistic COSMO- COSMO-7km without DA G.Rivin From Oct 2011
7km without DA to the project data flow to the project onwards
server
1.11 Evaluation and comparison of results Preliminary assessment of G.Rivin Mar 2012
from two identical COSMO-7km DA contribution to the I.Rozinkina
systems -with and without DA (RDP- forecast skill
component)
1.12 Integration of deterministic COSMO COSMO-2km data flow to G.Rivin From Oct 2011
2.2 km runs (downscaled from 7 km) the project server onwards
(FDP)
1.13 First evaluation of the existing GLAMEPS data flow to the I-L. Frogner Dec 2011
GLAMEPS system for the region of project server
Sochi (FDP - component)
1.14 Technical work in setting up Set up HarmonEPS. I-L. Frogner, Dec 2011
Harmonie to run in ensemble mode Calculated series of T.Iversen
and a first run with HarmonEPS HarmonEPS hindcasts.
finished, in hindcast mode (RDP-
component)
1.15 First test of local calibrated First test results for local I-L. Frogner, Dec 2011
GLAMEPS forecasts (RDP) calibrated GLAMEPS T.Iversen
forecasts
1.16 First version of GEM-LAM at 1km GEM-LAM at 1km grid S.Belair Dec 2011
grid spacing will be run (might not be spacing initialized from a 10 J.Milbrandt
real-time at that stage). It will not or 15-km regional GEM with
include yet the initial conditions from initial conditions from
the external high-resolution land 4DVAR. At that stage without
surface system (FDP) external high-resolution land
surface system.
1.17 Results of experiments with Prelimunary results with I.Rozinkina April 2012
downscalling for COSMO-RU02 statistical adaptation
correction scheme for 2012
winter for T2m for at sport
venues

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1.18 Experiments with snow satellite Preliminary results of I.Rozinkina April 2012
analysis for COSMO-RU system COSMO-RU runs with snow P.Romanov
(FDP, not real time at that stage) satellite analysis
1.19 Integration of forecast/nowcast data Forecasts/Nowcasts of D.Kiktev Winter 2011-2012
flows, archiving of participating systems on the (Depending on
forecasts/nowcasts and visualization project web-site. Availability the time of
of their results on the project web-site of results to Olympic availability of
forecasters via web- forecasts)
interface. Archiving of
forecasts on the project
server.
1.20 Real-time access to TIGGE forecasts Real-time access to TIGGE T. Paccagnella To be specified
forecasts (with possibility to
request new specific
products)
1.21 Meteorological support of sport test Preliminary practical V.Lukyanov Jan-Mar 2012
events with use of forecast acquaintance of Olympic
information from the project forecasters with new
participants nowcasting/forecasting
products
1.22 Survey among Olympic forecasters «Snapshot» of the current V.Oganesian October-March
(as a part of impact assessment understanding and skill 2011-2012
studies) (FDP) levels, needs and
impressions
1.23 Synoptic evaluation of available Preliminary synoptic T.Dmitrieva, April 2012
FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for assessments of available V.Fedorova,
pre-trial winter (FDP?) FROST-2014 forecasts E.Vasilev
1.24 Objective evaluation of Pre-trial First evaluation results and A.Muravev, Spring 2012
forecasting/nowcasting results (RDP) assessments of practical P.Nurmi,
predictability for Sochi region E.Atlaskin

1.25 Assessment of organizational Possible correction V.Lukyanov Spring 2012

feasibility to lend additional (enhancement) of the D.Kiktev
observational equipment from the observational setup
project participants
2012-2013 (Trial Period)
2.1 Discussion and decision on Akhun Coordinated decision on Yu.Melnichuk, Jul 2012
radar data format Akhun radar data format D.Moisseev,
D.Majewski,
P.Joe,
M.Tsyrulnikov
G.Rivin
2.2 Traning course for Olympic Enhanced practical skills and V.Lukyanov Oct-Nov 2012
forecasters. Might be combined with theoretical background in the
SSC meeting (2.2) - to be decided team of Olympic forecasters.
Might be combined with SSC
meeting (2.2) with master-
class for Olympic forecasters
2.3 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting D.Kiktev To be decided.
Committee meeting. Might be Might be combined with Options: Spring
combined with training for Traning course for Olympic 2012 or Oct-Nov
forecasters (2.1) - to be decided. forecasters (2.1) 2012 (timed to
Forecasters
Training)
2.4 Integration of Akhun Doppler Radar Data flow from the Akhun Yu.Melnichuk Nov 2012
into the project data sources Doppler radar to the project
data server
2.5 Integration of wind and temperature Data flow from wind and A.Koldaev Nov 2012
profilers into the project data sources temperature profilers to the
project data server
2.6 Integration of new Roshydromet’s Data flow from the A.Koldaev Nov 2012
MRR into the project data sources (it Roshydromet’s MRR to the
might be the second MRR in the project data server
region)
2.7 Integration of microwave radiometer Data flow from the A.Koldaev Nov 2012
into the project data sources microwave radiometer to the
project data server
2.8 Radar precipitation data analysis on Radar precipitation data Y.Melnichuk Dec 2012

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 CAS/WWRP/JSC5/Doc. 4.1 : p. 22

regular grid with 2 km resolution analysis available on the D.Moisseev - to

project data server be confirmed
2.9 Integration of additional AMSs on the Data from additional AMSs D.Kiktev As new AMSs are
towers of mobile communication into on the project server getting available
the project data sources
2.10 Installation of extra-equipment from To be specified P.Joe,G.Isaac To be specified.
the participants - COLDEX R.Rasmussen Depends on 1.25
instruments etc ? To be specified.
Depends on 1.25. RDP?
2.11 Integration of road AMSs into the Road stations data flow to N.Bocharnikov,T From Nov 2012
project data sources (RDP) the project server .Bazlova
2.12 Road state nowcasting for regional MeteoTrassa data flow to the N.Bocharnikov,T From Nov 2012
highways (RDP) project server .Bazlova
2.13 Road state nowcasting for regional Road state nowcasting data P.Nurmi, To be specified.
highways (RDP) flow tot he project server –to E.Atlaskin
be confirmed
2.14 Integration of CARDS, ABOM, INTW CARDS, ABOM, INTW and P.Joe, G.Isaac From Nov 2012
and STEPS+ nowcasting systems to STEPS+ data flow to the
the project (FDP - component) project server
2.15 Integration of WSDDM nowcasting WSDDM data flow to the R.Rasmussen From Nov 2012
system to the project (FDP?– to be project server
specified)
2.16 Integration of MeteoExpert MeteoExpert data flow to the N.Bocharnikov / From Nov 2012
nowcasting system to the project project server T.Bazlova
(FDP – component)
2.17 Integration of INCA INCA fields on 1km grid A. Kann, C. 1 Jan 2013, as
Gruber, B. Bica soon as all input
data are available
2.18 GEM-LAM system at 1km grid GEM-LAM at 1km grid S.Belair 1 Nov 2012
spacing ready to run in real time with spacing initialized from a J.Milbrandt
initial conditions from the external regional GEM with initial
land surface system. (FDP) conditions from 4DVAR and
external high-resolution land
surface system.
2.19 First version of GEM-LAM at 250- GEM-LAM at 250-500m grid S.Belair 1 Nov 2012
500m grid spacing will be run (not spacing, with upper-air J.Milbrandt
necessarily in near real time). The driven and initialized by the
land surface initial conditions (snow, GEM-LAM 1km above, and
surface temperatures, soil moisture) with the surface initialized by
will be provided by an external land the external land surface
surface system. (RDP) system at 250-m grid
spacing.
2.20 Prepare and verify products specific GLAMEPS data flow to the I-L. Frogner 1 Nov 2012
to Sochi over winter 2011/2012. project server. Verification
Account for extra observations (if results for winter 2011/2012.
feasible) (FDP)
2.21 Preparing for boundary data started. Assessment of HarmonEPS I-L. Frogner, 1 Nov 2012
Start testing HarmonEPS on winter performance in hindcast T.Iversen
2011/2012 if boundary data is mode
available, in hindcast mode.
Preparation for a pre-operational
system for the Sochi area.
Experimental studies started
tentatively involving: resolution
impact studies, multi-model
combination, RUC, Hybrid EPS-DA,
assimilation/evaluation of snow
cover. (RDP)
2.22 Extended test of local calibrated Testing results for local I-L. Frogner, 1 Nov 2012
GLAMEPS forecasts with more sites calibrated GLAMEPS T.Iversen
and parameters including validation forecasts
(RDP)
2.23 Experiments with deterministic Experimental deterministic G.Rivin Winter 2012-2013
COSMO model with resolution about high-resolution COSMO runs
1 km (RDP) at the project server
2.24 Implementation of snow satellite Deterministic COSMO-RU02 G.Rivin 1 Jan 2013
analysis into COSMO-RU02 in runs with snow satellite I.Rozinkina

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operational mode (FDP) analysis

2.25 Development of operational MOS- Operational MOS P.Vasilev 1 Dec 2012
postprocessing for the region of postprocessing
mountain cluster
2.26 Conversion of the global 3D-Var to Results of experimental M.Tsyrulnikov Winter 2012-2013
the limited area (RDP) COSMO runs with 3D-Var
DA
2.27 Implementation of Real-Time Results of RTFV available A.Muravev From Dec 2012
Forecast Verification (RTFV) system for forecasters and project
participants via web
2.28 System Integration and Delivery Forecast tables as a first D.Kiktev Dec 2012
System with timely access to data guess
and timely product issue
2.29 Synoptic evaluation of available Synoptic assessments of T.Dmitrieva, April 2013
FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for available FROST-2014 V.Fedorova,
winter 2012/2013 (FDP) forecasts E.Vasilev
2.30 Objective evaluation of winter Results of objective forecast A.Muravev, Apr 2013
2012/2013 nowcasts and forecasts evaluation using off-line new P.Nurmi,
using non-standard virification verification approaches E.Atlaskin
methods
2.31 Meteorological support of sport test Preliminary practical V.Lukyanov Jan-Mar 2013
events with use of forecast acquaintance of Olympic
information from the project forecasters with new
participants nowcasting/forecasting
products
2.32 Survey among Olympic forecasters «Snapshot» of the current V.Oganesian Oct-Mar
and managers (as a part of impact understanding and skill 2012/2013
assessment studies) (FDP) levels, needs and
impressions
2.33 Meteorological support of sport test Practical experience of
V.Lukyanov Jan-Mar 2013
events with use of forecast Olympic forecasters with
information from the project new nowcasting/forecasting
participants products
2.34 System Integration and Delivery Forecast tables as a first D.Kiktev Dec 2012
System with timely access to data guess
and timely product issue
2.35 Technical work to set up ALADIN- Implementation of extra post- F.Weidle Summer 2012
LAEF post-processing domain processing of operational
(Ensemble FDP-component) ALADIN-LAEF forecasts
2.36 First evaluation of ALADIN-LAEF ALADIN-LAEF data flow to F.Weidle Summer/autumn
system for the region of Sochi (FDP - the project server 2012
component)
2013-2014 (Pre-Olympic, Olympic and Post-Olympic period)
3.1 Final traning course for Olympic Enhanced practical skills and V.Lukyanov Oct-Nov 2012
forecasters. Might be combined with theoretical background in the
SSC meeting (3.2) - to be decided team of Olympic forecasters.
Might be combined with SSC
meeting (3.2) and training for
Olympic forecasters
3.2 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting D.Kiktev To be decided.
Committee meeting. Might be Might be combined with Options: Spring
combined with training for Olympic training for Olympic 2013 or Oct-Nov
forecasters (3.1)-to be decided. forecasters (3.1) 2013 (timed to
Final Training)
3.3 Integration of additional To be specified P.Joe, G.Isaac To be specified.
measurements (GPM, Ka Band etc.) D.Moisseev Depends on 1.25
into the project data sources – RDP.
To be specified. Depends on 1.25
3.4 Implementation of regional 3D-Var Deterministic COSMO-RU M.Tsyrulnikov Oct 2013
DA with COSMO-RU in operational runs with 3D-Var DA
mode (RDP)
3.5 Possible slight changes to the GEM- Possible slight changes to S.Belair 1 Dec 2013
LAM system at 1km grid spacing the GEM-LAM system at J.Milbrandt
(FDP) 1km grid spacing
3.6 Final version of GEM-LAM at 250- Final version of GEM-LAM at S.Belair 1 Dec 2013
500m grid spacing will be integrated, 250-500m grid spacing J.Milbrandt
with some modifications /
improvements from the previous

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year (RDP)
3.7 GLAMEPS: Take into account extra GLAMEPS real-time FDP I-L.Frogner 1 Dec 2013
observations in real time in the data- runs with possible
assimilation and, if feasible, the assimilation of regional
ensemble generation (FDP) observations
3.8 Feasibility studies for HarmonEPS in HarmonEPS in test- I-L.Frogner, 1 Dec 2013
test-operational mode. High- operational mode. T.Iversen
resolution verification. (RDP)
3.9 Quasi-operational probabilistic Quasi-operational calibrated I-L.Frogner, 1 Dec 2013
forecasts for several observational EPS forecasts for several T.Iversen
sites and parameters, possibly with observation sites
hourly updates (RDP).
3.10 Operational INCA analysis and INCA deliverables (provided A. Kann, C. Winter 2013/2014
nowcasting for Olympic domain that input data are available Gruber, B. Bica
in sufficient quantity and
quality)
3.11 Deterministic COSMO model runs Results of deterministic high- G.Rivin Winter 2013/2014
with resolution about 1 km (RDP) resolution COSMO runs at
the project server
3.12 Experiments with COSMO-EPS Experimental ensemble high- G.Rivin 1 Dec 2013
2.2.km Tecnology (RDP) resolution COSMO-RU runs E.Astakhova
at the project server A.Montani

3.13 Meteorological support of Olympics Operational practical use D.Kiktev Feb-Mar 2014
and Formal FDP and demonstration of
systems participating in the
FDP project component
3.14 Synoptic evaluation of available Synoptic assessments of T.Dmitrieva, Autumn 2014
FROST-2014 forecasts/nowcasts for FROST-2014 nowcasts and V.Fedorova,
winter 2013/2014 (FDP) forecasts E.Vasilev
3.15 Evaluation and intercomparison of Evaluation results of FDP A.Muravev Autumn 2014
nowcast/forecast results for the P.Nurmi
formal FDP period (FDP) E.Atlaskin
3.16 Diagnostic non-standard verification Diagnostic verifications and A.Muravev Autumn 2014
of project nowcasts/forecasts (RDP) assessments of practical P.Nurmi
predictability for the period of E.Atlaskin and
FROST-2014 activity other project
participants

3.17 Survey among the Olympic «Snapshot» of the current V.Oganesian Oct 2013-Mar
forecasters and managers. (FDP) understanding and skill 2014
levels, needs and
impressions.
3.18 General impact assessment for the General impact assessment V.Oganesian, Autumn 2014
previous period targeting on Olympic for the period of project SERA
forecasters and managers (FDP) activity representative
3.19 Organization of the Science Steering SSC meeting D.Kiktev Spring 2014
Committee meeting.
3.20 Organization of the Final Seminar. Final seminar. D.Kiktev To be decided
Discussion on publication plan Publication plan.
3.21 Preparation of Report to WWRP Project Report submitted to D.Kiktev To be specified
Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) JSC
3.22 Support FROST-2014 http/ftp-server Internet access to the D.Kiktev While interest
for further retrospective studies (e.g. FROST-2014 data server for exists
in the context of data assimilation) research community
3.23 Journal publications

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Annex 4

Verification setup

Introduction

Sochi-2014 Olympics and Paralympics will be held on February 8-23 and March 7-16,
2014 correspondingly. Formal forecast evaluation period for the FDP component of
FROST-2014 project is tentatively set up from 20 January to 20 March 2014 (it is to be
approved by the SSC). Preliminary testing results will be obtained during the pre-trial
(winter 2011-12) and final trial (winter 2012-13) periods. Along with formal evaluation in the
framework of the demonstration project component various kinds of diagnostic verification
will be implemented for better understanding of weak and strong points of the involved
forecast systems.

Nowcast and forecast data types to be verified

• Grid-point fields

Due to complexity of the region the available objective analysis is neither detailed nor
reliable enough to be used as an etalon for forecasts validation. Thus, the grid-point fields
will be verified mostly in the points with nearby observations. The precipitation fields will be
also verified against radar composites with horizontal resolution of 2 km. Potentiality of the
wind field verification on the basis of radar radial wind observations is also considered.

• Individual pointwise time series (nowcasts, original and post-prosessed model) at

locations associated with observation sites

In order to assess deterministic high-resolution forecast performance of participating

technologies various time series of near-surface parameters and vertical profiles are to be
studied at AMSs, temperature/humidity and wind profilers, MRR(s) (MRR – Micro Rain
Radar) locations (Annex 1).

At profiler locations, model fields (temperature, humidity, horizontal wind) are to be verified
up to 3 km above the land surface with the resolution of several tens of meters (to be
detailed).
MRR vertical resolution is adjustable. Typical values are 30-100 m. The maximum number
of vertical steps is 31. The exact vertical structure is to be specified.

As for SNOW-V10, it is of interest to quantify the added value of forecast refinement

between:
- Global model;
- Regional model without and with its own data assimilation;
- High-resolution model with and without data assimilation;
- Post-processed model output (Kalman filter, MOS, 1D-model etc.);
- Nowcasting (based on latest observations and blended with NWP).

Verified parameters

The nowcast and EPS output verification is proposed to concentrate on sensible weather
and high-impact parameters: precipitation conditions, T2m, near-surface wind, visibility,

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cloud base, location of the zero isotherm. For deterministic forecasts an expanded list of
parameters and levels will be used (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1

Nowcasting Deterministic Deterministic Ensemble Ensemble

Forecast: Forecast: Forecast: Forecast:
FDP RDP FDP RDP
Temperature T2m + + T2m T2m
See See
Comment Comment
Relative + + + Ensemble Ensemble
Humidity See See mean & mean &
Comment Comment control run control run
Mean Sea Level - + + Ensemble Ensemble
Pressure mean & mean &
control run control run
Liquid Precip. + + + + +
Rate
Solid Precip. + + + + +
Rate
Freezing/Frozen + + + + +
Precip (if
possible to
single out)
Accumulated + + + + +
snow
Wind gusts + + + + +
Wind Speed & + + + + +
Direction See See
Comment Comment
Visibility + + + + +
Cloud base + + + + +
height
Cloudiness + + + + +
Height of the - + + + +
zero isotherm
Snow Surface ? + + - -
Temperature
Liquid water - - multi-level - -
content, Drop ?
Size, Rain Rate,
Reflectivity
(where provided
by models) – on
the basis of
MRR data

Comment: Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind forecast data are to be multi-level at
grid-points associated with locations of temperature/humidity and wind profilers.

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Temporal resolution

Various regional AMSs transmit their reports using different time steps. For example, the
land-based AMSs used 10 min steps during the 2010-2011 winter. The AMSs on mobile
communication towers reported more frequently. The exact frequency regime is station-
dependent and it is to be specified.

10-minutes temporal resolution is planned for the radar scans.

The proposed temporal resolution for forecast and nowcast grid-point fields and time
series at locations associated with observation sites is presented in «Forecast data
exchange requirements for FROST-2014 project» (The multiple of native model time step
can be used for pointwise time series as well).

How the forecast fields are to be verified?

For deterministic forecasts of such parameters as Temperature, Horizontal winds,

Humidity, Surface pressure, Cloud base height, Cloudiness, Height of the zero isotherm,
the basic scores for continuous variables will be used. For Precipitation rate, snowfall,
accumulated snow, Wind gusts and Visibility additional scores will be specified.

A unified analysis of radar and rain gauges data (radar QPE) with horizontal resolution
about 2 km will be developed and used for verification of gridded precipitation products
from the participating systems. Radar based verification techniques applied to precipitation
fields are to be specified.

A set of critical thresholds will be used to transform continuous variables into dichotomous
events. These thresholds will be adjusted for the SOCHI region, considering the sport
needs of the Olympic Games. Preliminary list of thresholds is presented in the Annex 5. In
general SNOW-V10 thresholds are considered to be applicable for FROST-2014.

Common verification measures for dichotomous variables (POD, FAR, TS, ETS, KSS,
HSS) will be applied along with some novelty measures, especially for the most extreme
events (SEDS, EDI). For EPS output, relevant probabilistic measures (ROC, Brier Score,
Reliability Diagram and Frequency Histograms, BSS, RPS, CRPSS) are to be applied.
Object-oriented verification, fuzzy verification, and conditional verification will be applied to
the project nowcasts and forecasts.

Real-time forecast verification will be implemented to at least a subset of forecast

variables, and presented on the FROST-2014 web-site http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru,
whereas various kinds of diagnostic verification statistics can be produced in a delayed
mode.

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Annex 5
Thresholds for ensemble forecast evaluation

The following thresholds are linked to the sport decision-making requirements for winter
Olympics (Annex 6) and might be subjected to change in case of possible sport demands
revision.

Thresholds for new snow:

Accumulation period [hrs] Thresholds [cm]
1 1, 2
6 2, 5, 15
12 15, 30
24 15, 30

Thresholds for total precipitation:

Accumulation period [hrs] Thresholds [mm of equivalent water]
3 1, 5, 10, 15
6 1, 5, 10, 15

12 1, 5, 10, 20, 50
24 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100

48 20, 50, 100, 150

72 20, 50, 100, 150

Thresholds for wind speed [m/s]: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 15, 17.

Thresholds for wind gust [m/s]: 4, 5, 10, 14, 15, 17.

Thresholds for T2m [°C]: -25, -20, -10, -5, 0, 5.

(Instantaneous) thresholds for visibility [meters]: 20, 30, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000.

(Instantaneous) thresholds for the height of the zero isotherm [meters]: 50, 100, 200,
300, 400, 500, 1000, 2000.

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