8/3/09

Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability

(EFP)

Terry Tullis & Bernard Minster

9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 1

Primary EFP Projects, 2008 (1)

Simulators
PI Title
•  Tullis, Dieterich, A Collaborative Project: Comparison and
Lapusta, Ward Validation of Earthquake Simulators
•  Tullis Workshop on Comparison and Validation of Earthquake
Simulators

•  Dieterich Physics-Based Simulation of Earthquake Occurrence in

Fault Systems
•  Tullis & Beeler Quasi-Dynamic Parallel Numerical Modeling of Earthquake
Interactions Over a Wide Magnitude Range Using Rate
and State Friction and Fast Multipoles
•  Ward ALLCAL -- An Earthquake Simulator for All of California
•  Ward Geodetic Inputs to Seismic Hazard Estimation

•  Burgmann Interaction and Predictability of Small Earthquakes at

Parkfield

9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 2

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Primary EFP Projects, 2008 (2)

Others
PI Title
•  Shen & Zeng Improvement and earthquake predictability test of
the load response ratio method
•  Ebel Investigating Seasonality of Earthquake
Occurrence in Southern California
•  Jordan Alarm-based Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts
•  Klein & Tiampo Punctuated Equilibrium and Earthquake
Forecasting
•  Schoenberg, Kagan, Bird Spontaneous and triggered earthquakes in
diverse tectonic zones of the globe
•  Jackson Long- and Short-Term California forecasts

9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 3

Examples of Activities

•  Simulators
–  RSQsim
–  PARK
•  LURR

9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 4

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Southern San Andreas 220 events > M 7 137 were isolated by at least 4
Simulation years; 34 pairs; 5 triples

There were 72 aftershocks in the 2-day interval between the M7.8 and M7.5 events and 183
aftershocks in the 100-day interval between the M7.5 and M7.6 events. Dieterich and
9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting Richards-Dinger 5

Sta;s;cs
for
recurrence
of
earthquake
slip
at
a
specific
point


Clustered
(1/t)


cov
=
0.1

Density

cov
=
0.9

~
Poisson


Dieterich and
9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting Richards-Dinger 6

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San Andreas at Parkfield

Entire 47 by 15 km Area

Entire area plus surroundings have 1,466,969 elements

2 subareas to be discussed are outlined Tullis and
9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting Beeler 7

~M2 Earthquake at 11 km

Tullis and
9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting Beeler 8

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M1 - M3 Eqrthquakes at ~ 3 km

Tullis and
Beeler
9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 9

LURR (Load-Unload Response Ratio) or LRR Load Response Ratio)

Load is Tidal Loading, Response is Microeismicity

Shen and Zheng

9/10/08 Sept 2008 NEPEC Meeting 10