Experiment of Expected Duration of Game

a) The expected time required to worth a goal
> z=1000;
> a=1200+z;a;
[1] 2200
> p=0.5;p;
[1] 0.5
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz=z*(a-z);dz;
[1] 1200000
b) it is find to be an unfair game where probability of winning is 0.55 what is the average duration of
game
p=0.55;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.45
> dz=(z/(q-p))-((a/(q-p))*((1-(q/p)^z)/(1-(q/p)^a)));dz;
[1] 12000
>c)
> p=0.50;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> z=1000;
> a=1200;
> dz1=z*(a-z);dz1;
[1] 2e+05
> z=1200;
> a=1400;a;
[1] 1400
> dz2=z*(a-z);dz2;
[1] 240000
> z=1400;z;
[1] 1400
> a=1600;a;
[1] 1600
> dz3=z*(a-z);dz3;
[1] 280000
> z=1600;z;
[1] 1600
> a=1800;a;
[1] 1800
> dz4=z*(a-z);dz4;
[1] 320000
> z=1800;z;
[1] 1800
> a=2000;a;
[1] 2000
> dz5=z*(a-z);dz5;
[1] 360000
> z=2000;z;
[1] 2000
> a=2200;a;
[1] 2200
> dz6=z*(a-z);dz6;
[1] 4e+05
> p=0.45;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
> z=100;z;
[1] 100
> z=1000;z;
[1] 1000
> a=1200;a;
[1] 1200
> dz7=(z/(q-p))-((a/(q-p))*((1-(q/p)^z)/(1-(q/p)^a)));dz7;
[1] 10000
> z=1200;z;
[1] 1200
> a=1400;a;
[1] 1400
[1] 12000
> z=1400;z;
[1] 1400
> a=1600;a;
[1] 1600
[1] 14000
> z=1600;z;
[1] 1600
> a=1800;a;
[1] 1800
[1] 16000
> z=1800;z;
[1] 1800
> a=2000;a;
[1] 2000
[1] 18000
> z=2000;z;
[1] 2000
> a=2200;a;
[1] 2200
[1] 20000
> p=0.4;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
> z=1000;z;
[1] 1000
> a=1200;a;
[1] 1200
[1] 5000
> z=1200;z;
[1] 1200
> a=1400;a;
[1] 1400
[1] 6000
> z=1400;z;
[1] 1400
> a=1600;a;
[1] 1600
[1] 7000
> z=1600;z;
[1] 1600
> a=1800;a;
[1] 1800
[1] 8000
> z=1800;z;
[1] 1800
> a=2000;a;
[1] 2000
[1] NaN
> z=2000;z;
[1] 2000
> a=2200;a;
[1] 2200
[1] NaN
> p=0.6;p;
[1] 0.6
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
> z=1000;z;
[1] 1000
> a=1200;a;
[1] 1200
[1] 1000
> z=1200;z;
[1] 1200
> a=1400;a;
[1] 1400
[1] 1000
> z=1400;z;
[1] 1400
> a=1600;a;
[1] 1600
[1] 1000
> z=1600;z;
[1] 1600
> a=1800;a;
[1] 1800
[1] 1000
> z=1800;z;
[1] 1800
> a=2000;a;
[1] 2000
[1] 1000
> z=2000;z;
[1] 2000
> a=2200;a;
[1] 2200
[1] 1000
> #plotting
> l=seq(1000,2000,by=200);
> z1=c(dz1,dz2,dz3,dz4,dz5,dz6);
> z2=c(dz7,dz8,dz9,dz10,dz11,dz12,);
Error in c(dz7, dz8, dz9, dz10, dz11, dz12, ) : argument 7 is empty
> z2=c(dz7,dz8,dz9,dz10,dz11,dz12);
> z3=c(dz13,dz14,dz15,dz16,dz17,dz18);
> z4=c(dz19,dz20,dz21,dz22,dz23,dz24);
> par(mfrow=c(2,2))
> p1=plot(l,z1,main="probability of winning=0.5",xlab="initialamount",ylab="expected duration of

the game",pch=15);
> p2=plot(l,z2,main="probability of winning=0.45",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

game",pch=20);
> p3=plot(l,z3,main="probability of winning=0.4",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

the game",pch=22);
> p4=plot(l,z4,main="probability of winning =0.6",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

the game",pch=25);
Conclusion: when the probability of winning is less than or equal to 0.5 then the expected duration of
the game increase with increase in initial amount.
when the probability of winning is greater than or equal to 0.5 then the expected duration of the
game remain constant as the initial amount.
z=1000;z;
[1] 1000
> a=1200;a;
[1] 1200
> p=0.50;p;
[1] 0.5
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz25=z*(a-z);dz25;
[1] 2e+05
> p=0.4;p;
[1] 0.4
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] 5000
> p=0.45;p;
[1] 0.45
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 10000
> p=0.6;p;
[1] 0.6
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> z=1200;a=1400;
> p=0.50;p;
[1] 0.5
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz29=z*(a-z);dz29;
[1] 240000
> p=0.45;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 12000
> p=0.4;p;
[1] 0.4
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] 6000
> p=0.6;p;
[1] 0.6
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> z=1400;a=1600;
> p=0.50;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz33=z*(a-z);dz33;
[1] 280000
> p=0.45;p;
[1] 0.45
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 14000
> p=0.4;p;
[1] 0.4
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] 7000
> p=0.6;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> z=1600;z;
[1] 1600
> a=1800;a;
[1] 1800
> p=0.50;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz37=z*(a-z);dz37;
[1] 320000
> p=0.45;p;
[1] 0.45
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 16000
> p=0.4;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] 8000
> p=0.6;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> z=1800;
> a=2000;
> p=0.50;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz41=z*(a-z);dz41;
[1] 360000
> p=0.45;p;
[1] 0.45
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 18000
> p=0.4;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] NaN
> p=0.6;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> z=2000;a=2200;
> p=0.50;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz45=z*(a-z);dz45;
[1] 4e+05
> p=0.45;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.55
[1] 20000
> p=0.4;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.6
[1] NaN
> p=0.6;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.4
[1] 1000
> p=c(0.50,0.45,0.4,0.6);
> z5=c(dz25,dz26,dz27,dz28);
> z6=c(dz29,dz30,dz31,dz32);
> z7=c(dz33,dz34,dz35,dz36);
> z8=c(dz37,dz38,dz39,dz40);
> z9=c(dz41,dz42,dz43,dz44);
> z10=c(dz45,dz46,dz47,dz48);
> par(mfrow=c(2,3))
> p5=plot(p,z5,main="initial amount z=1000",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration of

the game",pch=9);

the game",pch=10);
the game",pch=11);

the game",pch=12);

the game",pch=13);
> p10=plot(p,z10,main="initial amount z=2000",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration

of the game",pch=14);
initial amount z=1000 initial amount z=1200
200000
200000
150000
expected duration of the game
150000
100000
100000
50000
50000
0
0
0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
probability of winning probability of winning

>
initial amount z=1400 initial amount z=1600

250000
250000
150000
150000
50000
50000
0
0
0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
initial amount z=1800

350000
initial amount z=2000

4e+05
250000
3e+05
150000
2e+05
1e+05
50000
0e+00
0
0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60
Conclusion: here when the initial amount is fixed then expected duration of game increase gradually up
to the probability of winning 0.50 and at 0.50 it attains higher value after 0.50 decreases gradually with
respect to probability of winning
Que2)
> z=100;a=z+50;a;
[1] 150
> p=0.50;p;
[1] 0.5
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.5
> dz=z*(a-z);dz;
[1] 5000
b)
> p=0.7;q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.3
> z=100;a=175;
[1] 187.5
> round(dz);
[1] 188
c)
> z=100;a=z+100;
> p=0.47;
> q=1-p;q;
[1] 0.53
[1] 1666.646
> round(dz);
[1] 1667

Experiment of Expected Duration of Game

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Experiment of Expected Duration of Game

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a) The expected time required to worth a goal

Error in c(dz7, dz8, dz9, dz10, dz11, dz12, ) : argument 7 is empty

> p1=plot(l,z1,main="probability of winning=0.5",xlab="initialamount",ylab="expected duration of

> p2=plot(l,z2,main="probability of winning=0.45",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

> p3=plot(l,z3,main="probability of winning=0.4",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

> p4=plot(l,z4,main="probability of winning =0.6",xlab="initial amount",ylab="expected duration of

> p5=plot(p,z5,main="initial amount z=1000",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration of

> p6=plot(p,z6,main="initial amount z=1200",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration of

> p8=plot(p,z8,main="initial amount z=1600",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration of

> p9=plot(p,z9,main="initial amount z=1800",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration of

> p10=plot(p,z10,main="initial amount z=2000",xlab="probability of winning",ylab="expected duration

expected duration of the game

probability of winning probability of winning

initial amount z=1400 initial amount z=1600

probability of winning probability of winning

initial amount z=1800

initial amount z=2000

probability of winning probability of winning

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